TruthIsAll Election Analysis

Upon graduating from Queens College (NY) in 1965 with a BA in Mathematics, Richard Charnin (“TruthIsAll”) began his career as a numerical control engineer/programmer for a major defense/aerospace manufacturer. In 1976, he moved on to Wall Street as manager/developer of corporate finance quantitative applications for three major investment banks. When personal computers became available in 1982, he converted many of these application programs to spreadsheets. As a software consultant, he has specialized in quantitative applications development for major domestic and foreign financial institutions, investment firms and industrial corporations. He has two M.S. degrees in applied mathematics from Adelphi University and the Polytechnic Institute of NY.

Charnin never imagined that years later he would become a prolific Internet poster. But after the 2000 election fiasco, he was motivated to develop a robust election forecast model. In July 2004 he began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the latest state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes and 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls. Immediately following the election, he began posting exit poll analyses on a frequent basis. The postings sparked heated debates and attracted hundreds of viewers.

The Final 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible since it indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters - but he had just 50.5 million recorded votes. Only 48 million were alive in 2004. Approximately 46 million voted, therefore the Final overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6-7 million. In the U.S., final national and state exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Census total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV.

Forced to retire in Feb. 2006 after suffering a near-fatal heart attack, Charnin spent four months in two hospitals. While recuperating, he proceeded to develop projection models and exit poll analysis for the 2006 midterms. The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Democrats had a 52-46% vote share.The Generic 120-poll Trend Model projected that the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote. It was within 0.06% of the unadjusted exit poll.

In 2008, analyses of the primaries showed that Obama did significantly better than reported. In July, Charnin began posting weekly projections, this time using an updated 2008 version of the original Election Model. The final projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 recorded electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share, a 9.5 million margin. But the forecast was too conservative; it was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Final registered voter (RV) polls had 13% - before undecided voters were allocated.

Once again in 2008, the Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by requiring 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. There are many anomalies in the Final, including a) there were more returning Bush 2004 voters than were living in 2008, b) Bush won the recorded vote by just 3.0 million and c) Kerry won the exit poll by 7 million, d) there were 5 million returning third party voters but only 1.3 million voted in 2004. Assuming Kerry won by the exit poll margin, one would expect approximately 7 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a difference of 19 million from the Final National Exit Poll. The post-election True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes, had 420 EV and a 58% share.

For the 1968-2008 presidential elections, the average Democratic True Vote share exceeded the recorded share by nearly four percent.

Proving Election Fraud is a detailed analysis of pre and post-election polling data that the mainstream media avoids discussing. The book proves beyond a reasonable doubt that the recorded vote is always different from the True Vote. As a programmer using second-generation computers that took us to the moon, Charnin knows that voting machine “glitches” are not the cause of the failure to properly count the votes. It’s the fault of the humans who program them.

TruthIsAll Election Analysis (1968-2008)

2006 Midterms

Protecting The Democratic Vote: Part 3 A Formula for Catching Election Fraud

Downloadable Excel Models

Protecting The Democratic Vote: Part 3
A Formula for Catching Election Fraud