Charnin Election Fraud and JFK Probability Analysis

I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the recorded vote is always different from the True Vote. Unlike the misinformation spread in the media, voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures. It’s the fault of the humans who program them.

In the 1968-2012 Presidential elections, the Republicans won the average recorded vote by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 Recursive National True Vote Model indicates the Democrats won the True Vote by 49.6-45.0% - a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42% - but won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. The state exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 126 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. The probability of the occurrence is ZERO. Only 14 (5%) would be expected to exceed the MoE at the 95% confidence level. Of the 126 which exceeded the MoE, 123 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability P of that anomaly is ABSOLUTE ZERO (5E-106). That is scientific notation for

P= .000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000005.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. Not one political scientist, pollster, statistician, mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. They have chosen not to discuss the topic. And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

Election forecasters, academics, political scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic - beyond a reasonable doubt. This site contains a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. Those who never discuss or analyze Election Fraud should focus on the factual statistical data and run the models. If anyone wants to refute the analytical evidence, they are encouraged to do so in a response. Election forecasters, academics and political scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

The bedrock of the evidence derives from this undisputed fact: Final national and state exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares. All demographic categories are adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. To use these forced final exit polls as the basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. The research is based on the bogus premise that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

It is often stated that exit polls were very accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. That is a misconception. The UNADJUSTED exit polls have ALWAYS been accurate and closely matched the True Vote in 1988-2008. A comparison of ADJUSTED, PUBLISHED exit polls in elections prior to 2004 and PRELIMINARY exit polls since then is like comparing apples to oranges. The adjusted, published exit polls have always exactly matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote because they have been forced to do so. That's why they APPEAR to have been accurate. The RECORDED vote has deviated from the TRUE VOTE in EVERY election since 1968 – always favoring the Republicans.

The Census Bureau indicates that since 1968 approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. And these were just the uncounted votes. What about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? But vote miscounts are only part of the story. The True Vote analysis does not include the millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, Bush defeated Dukakis by 7 million recorded votes. But approximately 11 million ballots (75% Democratic) were uncounted. Dukakis won the unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 50-49%. The Collier brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, Clinton defeated Bush by 5.8 million recorded votes (43.0-37.5%). Approximately 9 million were uncounted. The National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Bush voters in 1992. The unadjusted state exit polls had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (47.6-31.7%). The True Vote Model indicates that Clinton won by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Clinton defeated Dole by 8.6 million recorded votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. The unadjusted state exit polls (70,000 respondents) had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (52.6-37.1%). The True Vote Model indicates that Clinton had 53.6%.

In 2000, Al Gore won the 540,000 recorded votes (48.4-47.9%). But the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) indicated he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes. The True Vote Model had him winning by 51.5-44.7%. But the Supreme Court awarded the election to Bush (271-267 EV). In Florida, 185,000 ballots were uncounted. The following states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Bush in the recorded vote: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in this election.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly 2004 Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes and 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The Final 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible since it indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters - but he had just 50.5 million recorded votes. Only 48 million were alive in 2004. Approximately 46 million voted, therefore the Final overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6-7 million. The Final NEP implied that there was an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters in 2004. The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Census total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV.

But there was much further confirmation of a Kerry landslide. Consider Final NEP adjustments made to Bush’s approval rating and Party–ID crosstabs.

Bush had a 48% national approval rating in the final 11 pre-election polls. But the Final NEP indicated that he had a 53% rating – even though he had just 50% in the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate. Given the 3% differential between the Final NEP and state exit poll approval ratings, let’s deduct 3% from his 48% pre-election approval, giving him a 45% vote share. That is a virtual match to the True Vote Model (which Kerry won by 53.5-45.5%). The exit pollsters inflated Bush’s final pre-election 48% average rating by 5% in the Final NEP order to force a match to the recorded vote - and perpetuate the fraud. Kerry’s 51.7% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate understated his True Vote Model share. There was a near-perfect 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and unadjusted exit poll share.

The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate Democratic/Republican Party ID split was 38.8-35.1%. As they did in all demographic crosstabs, the pollsters had to force the Final National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote; they needed to specify a bogus 37-37% split. The correlation between state Republican Party ID and the Bush unadjusted shares was a near-perfect 0.93.

This chart displays the state unadjusted Bush exit poll share, approval ratings and Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Democrats had a 52-46% vote share. The Generic Poll Trend Forecasting Model projected that the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote. It was within 0.06% of the unadjusted exit poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Obama did significantly better than his recorded vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. The registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% - before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% True Vote margin, one would expect 7 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Final 2008 NEP. Another anomaly: The Final 2008 NEP indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters - but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Either the 2008 NEP or the 2004 recorded third-party vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share was within 0.1% of the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms, the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate and Governor were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Senate, Governor, Supreme Court and Recall elections. A serious analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

In 2012, Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2% (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls. The built-in True Vote Model projected that Obama would win by 56-42% with 391 electoral votes. But just 31 states were exit polled, therefore a comparison between the True Vote Model and the state and national unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the red-shift) is not possible. Obama won the 11.7 million Late votes recorded after Election Day by 58-38%. In 2008, he won the 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%, a confirmation that he was within 2% of his 2008 share.

Bob Fitrakis in The Free Press: Wisconsin: None Dare Call it Vote Rigging

Daily Kos: The Red-shift - Why it is Important

Daily Kos: Wisconsin Recall Election Questions

Daily Kos: Election Fraud: Exit Poll Probability Analysis

2000-2012 Presidential Vote Survey

2010 FL and OH Governor exit polls: forced to match the recorded vote

WISCONSIN

Wisconsin Voices Newspaper Blog

Four Wisconsin Elections: A Pattern of County Unit/Ward Vote Share Anomalies

Walker Recall: County Cumulative Vote Shares by Increasing Unit/Ward Size

Probability of Mixed Precinct/Ward Vote Discrepancies: Optical Scanners & Touch Screens

Walker Recall True Vote Database Model: County, Municipal and Unit Ward

Walker Recall True Vote Model: Implausible Vote Shares required to Match the Recorded Vote

Walker Recall: The Exit Pollster’s MO Never Changes

Walker Recall: The Adjusted Final Exit Poll Was Forced to Match an Unlikely Recorded Vote

The Walker Recall: Is the Past Prologue?

True Vote Model Analysis: Walker Recall

2010-2011 Wisconsin: Senate, Governor, Supreme Court and Recall Elections

2011 Wisconsin Recalls: Exit Polls and the True Vote Model

2011 Wisconsin Supreme Court: True Vote Analysis

Analytical Election Models/Databases (Google Doc spreadsheets)

2000-2012 Presidential Vote Survey

2012: Obama May Win the True Vote and Still Lose the Election

Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy

Avoiding the Election Fraud Factor: Forecasters. Political Scientists, Academics and the Media

Footprints of Election Fraud: 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies

Monte Carlo Simulation: 2004 Presidential Pre-election and Exit Polls

An Electoral Vote Forecast Formula: Simulation or Meta-analysis not required

1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential State Exit Poll Aggregate: A 52-42% Democratic Margin

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2008 Recursive National Presidential True Vote Model

2004-2008 County Presidential True Vote Model

2000-2004 County Presidential True Vote Model

2000: Unadjusted Exit Polls indicate Gore won by 51-45% (5-7 million votes)

2002 Senate Midterms Probability Analysis

2004: True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis indicates Kerry had 53.6%- a 10 million vote Landslide

2008: Unadjusted exit polls and the True Vote Model indicate Obama had 58%- a 23 million vote margin

2010 FL, OH, PA, WI, NJ Governor Elections: A True Vote Analysis

2010 PA, WI, IL Senate Elections: A True Vote Analysis

2010-2011 Wisconsin: Senate, Governor, Supreme Court and Recall Elections

2011 Wisconsin Recalls: Exit Polls and the True Vote Model

2011 Wisconsin Supreme Court: True Vote Analysis

2012 Presidential True Vote Model Scenarios

2012: Obama May Win the True Vote and Still Lose the Election

An Introduction to the True Vote Model

Using the Online True Vote Model

Statistical Analysis

To Believe Bush Won in 2004, You Must Believe...

To Believe Obama Won the Recorded Vote by 9.5 Million...

2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls Confirm the True Vote Model

1988-2008 State Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Analysis

Kerry Won Ohio and Florida: A True Vote Probability Analysis

Final 2004 NEP flipped 7% of Kerry responders to Bush; Final 2008 NEP flipped 13% of Obama’s to McCain

How the Final 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were Forced to Match the Recorded Vote

The Oregon Voting System: Statistical Evidence that it Works

New York Voting Anomalies

A Comparative Statistical Analysis of Oregon's mail-in Voting System

Oregon Mail-in Ballots vs. New York Lever Machines / Central Tabulators

Early Voting on Paper Ballots vs. Election Day Voting on Machines

Late Vote Anomalies: 2000-2008

Debunking the Exit Poll Naysayers and Gatekeepers of the Left

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ (updated 4/9/12)

Exit Poll Response Optimization: closing the book on the “reluctant Bush responder”

The unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll: closing the book on "False Recall"

False Premise: closing the book on “Swing vs. Red-shift”

An Open Letter to Salon’s Farhad Manjoo

An Open Letter to John Fund (WSJ): Election Fraud, not Voter Fraud

An Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com

Debunking the Mystery Pollster’s Critique of the RFK Rolling Stone Article

A Reply to Howard Stanislevic's "Return to Innocence"

Calling Out the New York Lever Voting Shills

An Open Letter to Nate Silver

An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2)

Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver

A Reply to Nate Silver's “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”

Zogby vs. Silver: 1996-2008 True vs. Recorded Vote Pollster Rankings

Deleted: A Comment on the Nate Silver / NY Times blog

The Research 2000 Pile-on

An Open Letter to Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos

2008 Tracking Poll Volatility Analysis: R2K vs. Gallup

What the Pollsters and Pundits Won’t Tell You

Election Fraud Lockdown

Current TV and Election Truth

Et tu Al Gore?

Avoiding the Election Fraud Factor: The New Hampshire Primary

Myths and Disinformation

Election Myths

Reluctant Bush Responder

Swing vs. Red shift: 1992-2004

Swing vs. Red shift: Hoisted on its own Petard

False Recall: A Rebuttal

A Conversation about False Recall

False Recall: Hoisted on its own Petard

False Recall: Exposed by the Final National Exit Poll

Uncounted and Switched Votes

Uncounted, Stuffed and Switched Ballots

Required Turnout: The Phantom Bush Voter Society

2011 Wisconsin Supreme Court and Recall Elections

Recall Elections: An Exit Poll, Recorded and True Vote Comparison

Will the Wisconsin Democratic Recall Elections Be Stolen? A True Vote Analysis

Did the GOP Steal the Wisconsin Recall Elections? A True Vote Analysis

Wisconsin Recall Election Projections

Wisconsin Supreme Court County Vote Analysis

2010 Midterms

House and Senate Forecasting Model

Post-election Analysis: RV/ LV Polls. Exit Polls and Recorded Votes

Governor True Vote

Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Jersey

Senate True Vote

Massachusetts: Coakley won the Hand Counts

2008

Election Fraud Analytics

The Primaries: Footprints of Election Fraud

Proof that Obama won by much more than 9.5 million votes

A Conversation about the 2008 Election

2006

Midterms Overview

Quantifying the Risk

Generic Poll Trend Forecasting Model

2004

Nov. 4, 2004 - Democratic Underground: To Believe Bush Won...

Electoral Vote Forecasting: Monte Carlo Simulation

2004 Election Model

State Pre-election Polling Trend

National RV and LV Poll Trend

A Conversation about the 2004 Election

Simple Numerical Proof of 2004 Election Fraud

Returning 2000 and New Voters: Proof that Kerry Won

County Votes: Florida, Ohio, New York

2000/2004 Recorded State Votes by Voting Method

Exit Pollsters Edison - Mitofsky 2004 Evaluation Report

USCV: Exit Poll analysis

USCV: Ohio 2004 Precinct Exit Polls

Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

Introduction: To Believe Bush Won...

1. When Decided

2. Bush Approval Ratings

3. The Final 5 Million Recorded Votes

4. The Final Exit Poll: Forced to Match the Vote

5. Within Precinct Discrepancy

6. New Voters

7. Party ID

8. Gender

9. Implausible Gore Voter Defection

10. Voter Turnout

11. Urban Legend

12. Location Size

13. Sensitivity Analysis

14. Did Kerry Win 360 EV?

15. Election Simulation Analysis

16. Exit Poll Response Optimization

17. Florida

18. Ohio

19. New York

Appendix

A. Election Model: Nov.1 Projection

B. Interactive Monte Carlo Simulation: Pre-election and Exit Polls

C. 1988-2004 Election Calculator: The True Vote

D. The 2000-2004 County Vote Database

E. Statistics and Probability: Mathematics of Polling

2000

2000 Unadjusted Exit Polls Indicate a Gore Landslide

Miami-Herald: Gore won Florida by 46,000 votes!

Truthseekers

William Rivers Pitt: Worse than 2000: Tuesday's Electoral Disaster

Stolen Election Videos

Keith Olbermann on 2004 Voting Irregularities

Ernest Partridge: Bush Wins Florida - NOT

Bib Fitrakis: Missing Votes in Ohio 2006 Midterms

Op Ed News interview: Bob Fitrakis on new evidence of the 2004 Ohio stolen election

Free Press: New court filing reveals how the 2004 Ohio presidential election was hacked

Michael Collins: The Urban Legend

Sheila Parks: 2011 Wisconsin Uprising: The New Florida and Ohio?

Jonathan Simon, Election Defense Alliance: Landslide Denied

Michael Keefer: Footprints of Electoral Fraud

Election Fraud in America

Evidence of Fraud in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election: A Reader

The 2006 US Midterms: Another Stolen Election?

The Strange Death of American Democracy: Endgame in Ohio

Greg Palast: Kerry Won

Recipe for a Cooked Election

Thom Hartmann: Evidence Mounts that the Vote May Have Been Hacked

Steven F. Freeman: The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy

Hypotheses for Explaining the 2004 Presidential Exit Poll Discrepancy

Prof. John Allen Paulos: Final Tallies - Exit Polls: A Statistical Mystery

Robert Koehler: Silent Scream of The Numbers

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Was the 2004 Election Stolen?

Mark Crispin Miller: None Dare Call It Stolen

Some Might Call it Treason – An Open Letter to Salon

Jim Lampley: The Biggest Story of Our Lives;

Apologies; Ostriches; Revisiting the Biggest Story

Paul Lehto: Presidential Vote Recount Rigging in Ohio

Evidence of Election Irregularities in Snohomish County, WA

Ion Sancho, Leon Cty (FL) Supervisor of Elections: The Hursti Hack

Lynn Landes: Voting Security

Rebecca Mercuri, Ph.D.: Electronic Voting

Victoria Collier: A Brief History of Computerized Election Fraud in America

Diane Perlman: The Silence of the Scams: Psychological Resistance to Facing Election Fraud

__________________________________________________________________________

Miscellaneous

Roper Center (UConn) U.S. Elections Data: 1976-2008

Reference Links

Postings (2004-2005)

The Bell Forum (formerly Progressive Independent)

1988-2008 Election Calculator

Interactive 2004 Election Simulation

Monte Carlo 2004 Polling Simulation

Historical Voting Machine Timeline

The 2004 Election Fraud Beginners Guide

Eye on Ohio: The Informed Citizen’s Guide to the 2004 Election

US Count Votes/National Election Data Archive

US Count Votes: History of the Debate Surrounding the 2004 Presidential Election

DrDebug: http://rigorousintuition.yuku.com/forum/viewtopic/id/845

DUers byronius and autorank: http://www.truthisall.net/

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline

This refutes the myth that early exit polls were biased to Kerry. He led from 4pm with 51% (8,349 respondents) to the final 13,660 (51.7%). The exit pollsters had to switch approximately 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to force the Final NEP to match the recorded vote. Given his 51.7% share of 125.7 million (Census) votes cast, Kerry won by nearly 6 million votes.The True Vote Model indicates he had 53.6% and won by 10 million.

11/02/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents

Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%

http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

11/02/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents

Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1%

http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/03/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents

Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents

Kerry 51.7%; Bush 47.0%

Data Source: Roper Center (UConn)

Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate, 76000 respondents

Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.6%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (adjusted to match the recorded vote).

Bush 50.7%; Kerry 48.3%

http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

The Final was forced to match recorded vote by switching 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Bush.

The average within precinct discrepancy (WPD) was a nearly identical 6.5%.

The True Vote Model indicates that Kerry had 53.6%.

2008

Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate, 83000 respondents

Obama 58.0%; McCain 40.5%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 17836 respondents

Obama 61.0%; McCain 37.3%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

Final National Exit Poll, 17836 respondents (adjusted to match the recorded vote).

Obama 52.9%; McCain 45.8%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

The True Vote Model indicates that Obama had 58%.

A Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008)

12/17/09

In the first game of the 1954 World Series, Willie Mays made a miracle over-the-head catch. He implicitly calculated the mathematical trajectory of the ball at the crack of the bat using his built-in computer. Calculating the True Vote is more complex; the trajectory equation changes over time as the dynamics of the electorate change. The current election equation is a recursive function of the prior. It's all in the MATH.

The Recursive True Vote Model calculates the True Vote for all elections since 1968. Data input (shown below) consists of recorded and total votes cast, Final National Exit Poll shares (1988-2008); estimated vote shares (1968-1984) required to match the recorded vote, annual voter mortality and previous election voter turnout. The returning voter mix is calculated using the following methods -depending on the objective:

Method 1: the Final NEP adjusts the mix to force a match to the recorded vote. This implicitly assumes that all elections, not just the current, are fraud-free. The process of matching to the official vote required millions of Bush phantom voters in 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 (turnout exceeded 100%). The official vote counts cannot be correct.

Method 2: The mix is based on prior recorded votes and does not include millions of uncounted votes.

Method 3: (True Vote): The mix is based on total votes cast in the previous and current election.

Method 4 (Recursive True Vote): The problem of the Final National Exit Poll perpetuating endemic fraud is eliminated.

Starting with the 1968 election, the model sequentially derives a feasible returning vote mix. True vote shares cast in the previous election are reduced by voter mortality and turnout in the current election and new voters are added to the mix.

Except for the 2004 election, the model used Final National Exit Poll vote share. In 2004 the Final NEP vote shares were radically changed to match the official tally. Therefore, preliminary 12:22am NEP vote shares were used to calculate the True Vote.

The model indicates that two elections were definitely stolen (2000 and 2004) and probably two others (1968 and 1988) as well. In order to match the official vote, there had to be an average 94% turnout of returning Democrats and 106% of Republicans. The average Republican turnout was 114% when Nixon and Bush were the incumbents; it was 98% otherwise. The average True Vote discrepancy was 10.3% when Nixon and Bush were incumbents; it was 3.6% otherwise.

In 1968, Nixon won the official vote by 0.5m.

Humphrey won the True Vote by 2 million.

There were 6 million uncounted votes.

In 1972, Nixon won a 17 million landslide with 61.8% of the vote.

His True Vote share was 57%.

There were 9.5 million uncounted votes.

In 1976, Carter won the official vote by 1.7m.

He won the True Vote by 6 million with 53%.

There were 6.7 million uncounted votes.

In 1980, Reagan defeated Carter by 8 million votes.

There were 6.4 million uncounted votes.

In 1984, Reagan defeated Mondale by 17 million votes.

There were 9.2 million uncounted votes.

In 1988, Bush won the official vote by 7.0m.

Dukakis may have won a squeaker.

There were 10.6 million uncounted votes.

In 1992, Clinton won the official vote by 6m.

He won the True Vote by over 20 million.

There were 9.5 million uncounted votes.

Independent candidate Ross Perot had 19% of the recorded vote.

In 1996, Clinton won the official vote by 8m.

He won the True Vote by 16 million.

There were 8.7 million uncounted votes.

Independent candidate Ross Perot had 10% of the vote.

In 2000, Gore won the official vote by 0.54 million.

He won the True Vote by 4 million.

There were 5.4 million uncounted votes.

But he lost in Scotus by ONE vote.

In 2004, Bush won the official vote by 3.0m.

Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.

The Final National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote.

It had an impossible 43/37% Bush/Gore returning voter split.

There were 3.4 million net uncounted votes.

HAVA guess how many were stuffed or switched?

In 2008, Obama won the official vote by 9.5m.

He won the True Vote by over 20 million.

The Final National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote.

It had an impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter split.

Calculated Democratic Vote Shares (1968-2008)

Vote Share Discrepancies (1968-2008)

True Vote vs. Recorded Vote Margin (1968-2008)

In mathematical terms,

True Vote for candidate k in election i is sum product of the mix and vote shares.
i = election index, where i=0,10 (1968 to 2008)
j = new and returning voter index (1= New, 2=Dem, 3=Rep, 4=Other)
k = share of new and returning voters (1=Dem, 2=Rep, 3=Other)

Mix (i,k) = new and returning voter share (j) of election (i-1) total votes cast
NEP (i, j, k) = National Exit Poll (i) shares (k) of new and returning voters (j)
TV (i, k) = å Mix (i, j)* NEP(i, j, k), j=1,4; k =1,3

1968-2008 Final National Exit Poll – forced to match the recorded vote

	Recorded		Final NEP Voter Mix				Turnout required to match recorded vote
	Dem	Rep	DNV	Dem	Rep	Other	Dem	Rep	Other
2008	52.9%	45.6%	13%	37%	46%	4%	87%	103%	451%
2004	48.3%	50.7%	17%	37%	43%	3%	93%	110%	98%
2000	48.4%	47.9%	18%	41%	33%	8%	96%	93%	92%

1996	49.2%	40.7%	13%	38%	31%	18%	86%	80%	80%
1992	43.0%	37.4%	18%	28%	53%	1%	74%	119%	85%
1988	45.6%	53.4%	8%	33%	58%	1%	85%	103%	93%

1984	40.6%	58.8%	16%	34%	44%	6%	93%	98%	81%
1980	41.0%	50.7%	16%	42%	41%	1%	94%	95%	59%
1976	50.1%	48.0%	15%	30%	53%	3%	91%	96%	89%

1972	36.2%	60.7%	11%	35%	44%	10%	92%	113%	83%
1968	42.9%	43.6%	20%	49%	31%	-	93%	99%	-

Avg	45.30%	48.90%	14.50%	35.50%	44.60%	5.40%	89%	101%	121%

Final 2008 National Exit Poll

(Forced to match recorded vote, impossible 103% Bush and 452% third-party turnout of 2004 Election voters)

National

2004

2008

Vote Shares

---Votes (000)---

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

DNV

17,078

13%

71%

27%

12,125

4,611

342

Kerry

62,158

59,028

56,077

48,607

37%

89%

43,260

4,375

972

86.7%

Bush

62,313

62,041

58,939

60,430

46%

17%

82%

10,273

49,553

604

102.5%

Other

1,266

1,224

1,163

5,255

72%

26%

3,783

1,366

105

451.7%

NEP

125,737

122,294

116,179

131,370

100%

52.86%

45.60%

1.54%

69,442

59,905

2,023

98.4%

Recorded

365 EV

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

2008 True Vote Model

(Feasible 97% turnout of 2004 Election voters)

National

2004

2008

Vote shares

---Votes (000)---

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

DNV

16,441

12.4%

71%

27%

11,673

4,439

329

Kerry

67,370

59,028

64,001

62,081

46.9%

89%

55,252

5,587

1,242

97.0%

Bush

56,657

62,041

53,824

52,210

39.5%

17%

82%

8,876

42,812

522

97.0%

Other

1,710

1,224

1,625

1,576

1.2%

72%

26%

1,135

410

97.0%

True

125,737

122,294

119,450

132,308

100%

58.15%

40.25%

1.61%

76,936

53,248

2,124

97.0%

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Recorded

365 EV

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

Recorded

48.268%

50.731%

1.001%

Discrepancy

5.28%

-5.38%

0.10%

7,479

(6,687)

146

The True Vote calculations used the same Final 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares that were forced to match the recorded vote.

So there can be no argument there.

The 103% turnout of living 2004 Bush voters as indicated in the Final 2008 NEP was impossible.

So there can be no argument there.

The 5.25 million returning 2004 third-party voters as indicated in the Final 2008 NEP was impossible.

So there can be no argument there.

Impossible 2004 (110%) and 2008 (103%) returning voter turnout was replaced by feasible 98% and 97% rates.

So there can be no argument there.

Final 2004 National Exit Poll - forced to match recorded vote

(Impossible 110% turnout of Bush 2000 voters and final vote share adjustments)

National

2000

2004

Vote shares

---Votes (000)---

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

20,790

17%

54%

44%

11,227

9,148

416

Gore

55,436

51,004

48,454

45,249

37%

90%

10%

40,724

4,525

93.4%

Bush

51,376

50,460

47,937

52,586

43%

91%

4,733

47,853

109.7%

Other

4,160

3,953

3,756

3,669

64%

14%

22%

2,348

514

807

97.7%

NEP

110,973

105,417

100,147

122,294

100.0%

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,031

62,039

1,223

101.4%

Recorded

252 EV

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

122,294

2004 True Vote Model

(12:22 am NEP vote shares; feasible 98% turnout of Election 2000 voters)

National

2000

2004

Vote Shares

---Votes (000)---

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

22,421

17.8%

57%

41%

12,780

9,193

448

Gore

55,997

51,004

53,197

52,133

41.5%

91%

47,441

4,692

98.0%

Bush

50,870

50,460

48,327

47,360

37.7%

10%

90%

4,736

42,624

98.0%

Other

4,106

3,953

3,901

3,823

3.0%

64%

14%

22%

2,447

535

841

98.0%

True

110,973

105,417

105,424

125,737

100.0%

53.61%

45.37%

1.03%

67,404

57,044

1,289

98.0%

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

252 EV

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

122,294

Recorded

48.38%

47.87%

3.75%

Discrepancy

5.34%

-5.36%

0.02%

8,375

(4,997)

National

2000

Method:

Turnout in 2004

Unctd

Cast

Recorded

Unctd

Alive

Cast

Recorded

Unctd

Died

Gore

Bush

Gore

Bush

Other

110.8

105.4

5.4

105.3

125.7

122.3

3.4

6.1

98%

75%

24%

95.1%

4.9%

95.0%

97.3%

2.7%

5.0%

100%

National

Vote (mil)

Vote Share (%)

Vote (mil)

MoE

2000

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Pct

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

1.7%

DNV

22.42

17.8

57.0

41.0

2.0

12.78

9.19

0.45

1.0%

Gore

56.00

51.00

53.20

52.13

41.5

91.0

9.0

0.0

47.44

4.69

0.00

98%

1.0%

Bush

50.87

50.46

48.33

47.36

37.7

10.0

90.0

0.0

4.74

42.62

0.00

98%

1.7%

Other

4.11

3.95

3.90

3.82

3.0

64.0

14.0

22.0

2.45

0.54

0.84

98%

True

110.97

105.42

125.74

National

53.61

45.37

1.03

67.40

57.04

1.29

125.74

State Model

53.65

45.35

1.00

67.46

57.02

1.26

125.74

Electoral Vote

370

168

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded Vote

48.27

50.73

1.00

59.03

62.04

1.22

122.29

Recorded

48.38

47.87

3.75

True – Recorded

5.34

(5.36)

0.02

8.38

(5.00)

0.06

3.44

Cast

49.95

46.30

3.75

Exit Poll

51.97

47.08

0.95

63.55

57.58

1.17

122.29

Exit Poll

49.39

46.86

3.75

True – Exit Poll

1.64

(1.71)

0.07

3.85

(0.53)

0.12

3.44

Sensitivity Analysis

(changes to base case)

Bush

Gore voter turnout

Share of

Kerry Share of DNV

Share of

Kerry Share of Gore

Gore

Kerry share of DNV

turnout

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

Bush

55%

56%

57%

58%

59%

Bush

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

turnout

55%

56%

57%

58%

59%

Kerry Share (%)

Kerry share (%)

90%

53.9

54.2

54.5

54.8

55.1

12%

54.0

54.2

54.4

54.6

54.7

12%

53.6

54.0

54.4

54.8

55.2

98%

53.3

53.5

53.6

53.8

54.0

92%

53.5

53.8

54.1

54.4

54.7

11%

53.6

53.8

54.0

54.2

54.4

11%

53.2

53.6

54.0

54.4

54.8

96%

53.0

53.2

53.3

53.5

53.7

94%

53.2

53.5

53.8

54.1

54.3

10%

53.3

53.5

53.6

53.8

54.0

10%

52.8

53.2

53.6

54.0

54.5

94%

52.7

52.9

53.1

53.2

53.4

96%

52.8

53.1

53.4

53.7

54.0

52.9

53.1

53.3

53.4

53.6

52.4

52.8

53.3

53.7

54.1

92%

52.4

52.6

52.8

53.0

53.2

98%

52.5

52.8

53.1

53.3

53.6

52.5

52.7

52.9

53.1

53.2

52.0

52.5

52.9

53.3

53.7

90%

52.1

52.3

52.5

52.7

52.9

Kerry Margin (mil.)

Kerry margin (mil.)

90%

11.2

11.9

12.6

13.3

14.0

12%

11.4

11.9

12.3

12.8

13.2

12%

10.2

11.3

12.3

13.4

14.4

98%

9.5

10.0

10.4

10.9

11.3

92%

10.3

11.0

11.7

12.4

13.1

11%

10.5

10.9

11.4

11.8

12.3

11%

9.3

10.3

11.4

12.4

13.5

96%

8.8

9.3

9.7

10.2

10.7

94%

9.4

10.1

10.8

11.5

12.2

10%

9.5

10.0

10.4

10.9

11.3

10%

8.3

9.4

10.4

11.5

12.5

94%

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

96%

8.5

9.2

9.9

10.6

11.3

8.6

9.0

9.5

9.9

10.4

7.4

8.4

9.5

10.5

11.6

92%

7.3

7.8

8.3

8.8

9.3

98%

7.6

8.3

9.0

9.7

10.4

7.6

8.1

8.5

9.0

9.4

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.6

10.6

90%

6.6

7.1

7.6

8.2

8.7

Kerry Electoral Vote

90%

370

380

400

12%

370

391

400

12%

370

400

98%

370

92%

370

391

11%

370

380

11%

370

400

96%

370

94%

370

10%

370

10%

357

370

94%

340

346

370

96%

340

370

346

370

340

357

370

92%

340

370

98%

340

370

340

346

370

340

346

370

90%

325

340

357

MoE

1.04%

0.94%

0.82%

0.68%

0.49%

MoE

1.72%

1.71%

1.70%

MoE

1.08%

1.04%

0.99%

0.94%

0.88%

MoE

1.72%

1.71%

1.70%

2000

Gore was running coming off a prior Clinton landslide. On Election Day 2000, Slick Willie still enjoyed high approval ratings - despite that cheap cigar. There were 5.4 million net (of stuffed) uncounted votes. Gore won the True Vote by approximately 5 million. He led the state exit polls by 50-45% and the national by 49-47%

It was the most outrageous election theft in history-until 2004.

2000

Method: Final NEP Forced to Match

95%

96%

Recorded

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Voted

Voter

2000

National Exit Poll

Voter %

1996

2000

Turnout

Mix

Gore

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

19.0

18%

52%

43%

Clinton

49.2%

54.0

47.4

45.0

43.2

Clinton

43.2

Dole

40.7%

41.2

39.2

37.2

35.7

Dole

34.8

Perot

10.1%

9.9

9.7

9.2

8.8

Perot

8.4

Margin

Total

105.0

96.3

91.5

87.8

Total

105.42

Share

48.4%

47.8%

3.8%

0.6%

Vote

51.0

50.4

4.0

0.6

Recorded

Share

48.4%

47.9%

3.8%

0.5%

Vote

105.4

51.0

50.5

4.0

0.5

2000

Method: True Vote

95%

96%

True Vote

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Voted

Voter

2000

National Exit Poll

Voter %

1996

2000

Turnout

Mix

Gore

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

15.1

14%

52%

43%

Clinton

53.4%

56.1

47.4

53.3

51.1

Clinton

51.1

Dole

37.1%

38.9

39.2

37.0

35.5

Dole

35.5

Perot

9.5%

10.0

9.7

9.5

9.1

Perot

9.1

Margin

Total

105.0

96.3

99.8

95.8

Total

110.83

Share

50.3%

46.0%

3.7%

4.4%

Vote

55.8

50.9

4.1

4.9

Recorded

Share

48.4%

47.9%

3.8%

0.5%

Vote

105.4

51.0

50.5

4.0

0.5

Error

-3.9%

Dole

Clinton Turnout

Share of

Share of DNV

Turnout

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

Dole

50%

51%

52%

53%

54%

Gore Share

90%

50.4%

50.7%

51.0%

51.2%

51.5%

50.7%

50.9%

51.0%

51.1%

51.3%

92%

50.1%

50.4%

50.7%

50.9%

51.2%

50.4%

50.5%

50.7%

50.8%

50.9%

94%

49.8%

50.1%

50.4%

50.6%

50.9%

50.1%

50.2%

50.3%

50.5%

50.6%

96%

49.5%

49.8%

50.1%

50.3%

50.6%

49.8%

49.9%

50.0%

50.2%

50.3%

98%

49.2%

49.5%

49.8%

50.0%

50.3%

49.4%

49.6%

49.7%

49.8%

50.0%

Gore Margin

90%

5.1

5.7

6.3

6.9

7.5

5.3

5.4

5.6

5.7

5.9

92%

4.4

5.0

5.6

6.2

6.9

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.4

5.5

94%

3.7

4.3

4.9

5.5

6.2

4.6

4.7

4.9

5.0

5.2

96%

3.0

3.6

4.2

4.9

5.5

4.2

4.4

4.5

4.7

4.8

98%

2.3

2.9

3.6

4.2

4.8

3.9

4.0

4.2

4.3

4.5

Dole

Richard Charnin (Truth Is All)

Election Fraud (1968-2012)

Quantitative Analysis and True Vote Models

Richard Charnin Blog

Twitter Link

2006