2000 - 2004 Election Day and Late Votes, Voting Method and Exit Poll Analysis

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Feb. 1, 2011

Bush won the recorded vote by just 3.0 million. Kerry’s New York margin was reduced by nearly 1.0 million votes due to election fraud. In California, his margin was cut by approximately 1.4 million. Approximately 80% of his “mandate” was from these strong Democratic states.

Kerry won the national aggregate of the state unadjusted exit polls by 52-47%, but lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. The average exit poll discrepancy (WPD) was 7.4%. The WPD for mechanical lever precincts was 10.6%, 6.6% for punch cards, 7.1% for DREs, 6.1% for optical scanners - but just 2.2% for paper ballots.

See http://www.richardcharnin.com/NewYorkConfirmationKerryLandslide.htm.

Kerry’s Election Day vote in lever machine precincts increased by 8.6% over Gore in 2000 while Bush increased by 23.1%. There was a net increase of 5.8% in Bush’s total lever margin. The increase was much higher than all other voting methods.

Note: For the 2000 election, voting methods in several states (approximately 6 million votes) are unavailable.

2000-2004 State Election Day Vote shares by Voting Method

Table 1

Voting	2004	2000				2004	Share			Vote Chg from 2000			Pct Change vs 2000		Bush Net Increase
Method	Precints	Vote	GORE	BUSH	NADER	Vote	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	Margin	Margin%	Incid
	184,824	96,717	48.32%	49.01%	2.66%	116,008	48.36%	51.29%	0.35%	9,363	12,100	-2,171	20.0%	25.5%	2,737	2.2%	1,966
Paper	4,737	1,518	43.0%	53.9%	3.01%	1,879	44.07%	55.52%	0.42%	104	156	-39	15.9%	19.0%	52	0.6%	0
Opscan	66,451	33,078	46.3%	50.9%	2.82%	41,411	47.15%	52.58%	0.27%	2,218	3,669	-825	14.5%	21.8%	1,450	0.9%	303
Lever	26,698	13,977	54.4%	42.1%	3.45%	15,663	52.86%	46.34%	0.80%	658	1,363	-358	8.6%	23.1%	706	5.8%	243
Punch	26,083	11,306	48.6%	49.1%	2.29%	13,037	48.97%	50.92%	0.12%	890	1,084	-243	16.2%	19.5%	194	1.4%	213
DRE	46,551	28,875	49.1%	48.9%	2.03%	33,467	48.34%	51.39%	0.27%	2,012	3,074	-495	14.2%	21.8%	1,062	3.2%	1,171
Other	14,304	7,963	43.9%	52.7%	3.38%	10,550	46.49%	53.00%	0.50%	601	801	-232	17.2%	19.1%	200	-2.3%	36
TIMELINE		Total	GORE	BUSH	OTHER	Total	KERRY	BUSH	OTHER	KERRY	BUSH	OTHER	KERRY	BUSH	Margin	Change
Election Day		102,597	48.3%	48.0%	3.74%	117,074	48.03%	50.98%	0.99%	6,721	10,431	-2,675	-0.23%	2.97%	3,710	3.20%
Late		2,819	53.2%	42.7%	4.12%	5,213	53.72%	45.16%	1.11%	1,302	1,150	-58	0.56%	(152)	(152)	1.88%
Total		105,416	48.4%	47.9%	3.75%	122,287	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	8,023	11,581	-2,733	-0.11%	3,558	3,558	2.98%
PAPER
		2000				2004				Vote change from 2000	(000)		%change from 2000		Bush Net Increase
State	Prct	Total	GORE	BUSH	NADER	Total	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	Margin	Margin	Incid
AR	253	44	46.7%	50.6%	2.7%	46	44.7%	54.7%	0.6%	0.1	3.0	-0.9	0%	13%	2.9	6.1%	0
CO	44	8	25.4%	71.4%	3.2%	8	25.7%	73.7%	0.5%	0.1	0.3	-0.2	3%	5%	0.2	2.0%	0
ID	145	43	20.2%	74.7%	5.1%	48	25.0%	75.0%	0.0%	3.3	4.0	-2.2	39%	13%	0.7	-4.5%	0
KS	300	39	23.7%	73.4%	2.9%	39	22.1%	77.1%	0.8%	-0.5	1.8	-0.8	-6%	6%	2.3	5.3%	0
MI	237	174	50.5%	47.8%	1.7%	195	49.0%	50.6%	0.5%	7.6	15.4	-2.1	9%	19%	7.7	4.3%	0
MN	1093	476	48.0%	46.9%	5.1%	557	50.6%	48.7%	0.7%	52.9	48.1	-20.5	23%	22%	-4.8	-0.7%	0
MO	858	164	69.5%	28.6%	1.9%	182	71.1%	28.9%	0.0%	15.5	5.6	-3.1	14%	12%	-9.9	-1.4%	0
MT	144	28	23.3%	73.5%	3.2%	29	27.5%	71.4%	1.1%	1.4	0.0	-0.6	22%	0%	-1.4	-6.4%	0
NE	5	1	15.9%	82.2%	1.9%	1	14.8%	84.3%	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0.0	-6%	3%	0.0	3.3%	0
NC	17	7	41.5%	58.5%	0.0%	8	39.0%	61.0%	0.0%	0.1	0.6	0.0	4%	15%	0.5	5.1%	0
ND	63	8	29.5%	68.0%	2.5%	9	35.4%	63.2%	1.4%	0.7	0.1	-0.1	31%	1%	-0.7	-10.7%	0
PA	195	84	36.2%	61.5%	2.3%	97	33.8%	66.2%	0.0%	2.2	12.2	-1.9	7%	24%	10.0	7.1%	0
SD	157	22	35.0%	65.0%	0.0%	27	39.8%	59.3%	0.9%	3.0	1.6	0.2	39%	11%	-1.4	-10.6%	0
TX	913	329	28.9%	69.5%	1.6%	392	27.9%	72.1%	0.0%	14.3	53.8	-5.3	15%	24%	39.4	3.5%	0
UT	3	0	23.9%	72.8%	3.3%	0	21.7%	77.0%	1.2%	0.0	0.1	0.0	4%	21%	0.1	6.5%	0
VA	20	4	33.5%	64.7%	1.8%	4	34.6%	65.4%	0.0%	0.1	0.1	-0.1	9%	6%	0.0	-0.5%	0
WV	178	48	40.9%	57.9%	1.2%	54	37.5%	62.1%	0.4%	0.8	6.0	-0.4	4%	22%	5.2	7.6%	0
WI	74	22	49.4%	45.5%	5.1%	25	52.1%	47.3%	0.6%	2.3	1.9	-1.0	21%	19%	-0.4	-1.1%	0
WY	38	18	34.2%	62.9%	2.9%	19	31.4%	67.2%	1.3%	-0.2	1.3	-0.3	-4%	12%	1.5	7.1%	0
NH						141	50.4%	48.8%	0.8%
TOTAL	4,737	1,518	43.0%	53.9%	3.0%	1,879	44.1%	56.1%	0.4%	104	156	-39	15.9%	19.0%	52.1	1.6%	0
OPTICAL SCANNERS
		2000				2004				Change from 2000			% Change from 2000		Bush Net Increase
State	Prct	Total	GORE	BUSH	NADER	Total	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	Margin	Margin	Incid
AL	2522	1575	42.7%	56.2%	1.1%	1776	37.6%	62.0%	0.4%	-5	216	-11	-1%	24%	220.8	10.9%	13
AZ	2027	1321	46.1%	50.9%	3.0%	1644	44.7%	55.3%	0.0%	127	236	-40	21%	35%	109.4	5.7%	41
AR	1583	590	47.5%	50.2%	2.3%	661	46.7%	52.8%	0.5%	28	53	-10	10%	18%	24.5	3.4%	1
CA	17606	6491	56.2%	39.7%	4.0%	6724	57.5%	42.5%	0.0%	215	280	-262	6%	11%	64.8	1.5%	60
CO	2404	1267	40.2%	54.4%	5.4%	1519	44.2%	55.2%	0.6%	162	150	-60	32%	22%	-11.8	-3.1%	15
FL	2806	2831	44.2%	54.2%	1.5%	3728	42.3%	57.3%	0.4%	323	602	-28	26%	39%	279.5	5.1%	81
HI	336	365	56.3%	37.8%	5.9%	425	54.4%	45.6%	0.0%	26	56	-22	13%	41%	30.2	9.7%	2
ID	315	158	28.1%	68.8%	3.0%	189	29.2%	70.8%	0.0%	11	25	-5	24%	23%	14.3	0.9%	0
IL	3452	1452	45.4%	52.4%	2.1%	1606	45.2%	54.8%	0.0%	67	118	-31	10%	15%	51.3	2.5%	6
IA	1811	1144	49.8%	47.9%	2.3%	1308	50.1%	49.5%	0.4%	86	99	-21	15%	18%	12.3	1.2%	5
KS	2299	606	38.6%	57.6%	3.8%	655	37.5%	61.7%	0.9%	12	55	-17	5%	16%	43.0	5.1%	1
MI	2317	1735	48.0%	49.7%	2.3%	2008	47.8%	51.7%	0.5%	128	175	-29	15%	20%	46.6	2.1%	3
MN	2983	1929	48.7%	46.0%	5.3%	2250	51.6%	47.7%	0.7%	223	187	-88	24%	21%	-35.7	-1.2%	6
MS	1773	811	40.7%	58.5%	0.8%	953	39.9%	59.8%	0.3%	51	96	-4	15%	20%	45.1	2.1%	11
MO	634	372	41.0%	57.6%	1.4%	456	38.6%	61.4%	0.0%	20	66	-5	13%	31%	46.1	6.2%	0
MT	629	325	36.2%	57.4%	6.5%	361	41.0%	57.6%	1.4%	30	21	-16	26%	11%	-9.0	-4.6%	0
NE	2227	8	28.5%	69.4%	2.0%	9	24.8%	74.5%	0.7%	0	1	0	-1%	22%	1.3	8.7%	0
NM	202	62	37.0%	61.1%	1.9%	72	34.6%	64.9%	0.5%	2	9	-1	8%	23%	6.8	6.2%	0
NC	1159	1205	45.7%	54.3%	0.0%	1458	45.4%	54.6%	0.0%	111	141	0	20%	22%	30.0	0.6%	8
ND	633	273	34.3%	62.3%	3.4%	302	35.7%	63.1%	1.2%	14	20	-6	15%	12%	6.3	-0.6%	0
OH	1652	553	43.8%	53.9%	2.3%	658	44.7%	55.3%	0.0%	52	65	-13	21%	22%	13.7	0.5%	31
OK	2202	1219	38.9%	61.1%	0.0%	1464	34.4%	65.6%	0.0%	30	215	0	6%	29%	185.6	9.0%	4
OR	404	273	46.2%	49.9%	3.9%	315	49.3%	50.7%	0.0%	29	24	-11	23%	17%	-5.6	-2.3%	0
PA	1257	562	37.6%	60.3%	2.1%	646	36.8%	63.2%	0.0%	27	69	-12	13%	20%	42.8	3.7%	1
SC	366	183	49.1%	49.9%	1.0%	214	50.1%	49.6%	0.3%	17	15	-1	19%	16%	-2.3	-1.2%	2
TN	291	205	46.4%	53.4%	0.3%	239	42.5%	57.1%	0.4%	6	27	0	7%	25%	20.8	7.7%	1
TX	4175	2948	35.8%	62.8%	1.5%	3435	34.1%	65.9%	0.0%	119	413	-44	11%	22%	294.0	4.7%	6
VA	185	226	39.3%	58.7%	2.0%	286	40.3%	59.7%	0.0%	27	39	-4	30%	29%	11.9	0.0%	0
WA	4834	1433	53.5%	42.4%	4.2%	1756	56.0%	43.2%	0.8%	217	152	-46	28%	25%	-64.7	-1.6%	1
WV	912	261	44.1%	54.1%	1.8%	305	41.6%	57.8%	0.6%	12	35	-3	10%	25%	23.4	6.2%	2
WI	142	65	47.0%	49.5%	3.5%	75	48.1%	51.2%	0.6%	5	6	-2	17%	19%	0.7	0.7%	0
WY	313	155	30.2%	67.7%	2.1%	177	31.6%	67.2%	1.2%	9	14	-1	20%	13%	4.7	-2.0%	1
MA						2728	62.8%	37.2%	0.0%
NH						534	50.3%	49.0%	0.6%
VT						5	54.7%	44.4%	1.0%
DC		201	85.7%	9.0%	5.3%	226	89.9%	9.4%	0.7%	31	3	-9	18%	18%	-27.9	-3.8%
AK		275	28.7%	60.8%	10.4%	242	35.6%	62.8%	1.6%	7	-16	-25	8.9%	-9.3%	-22.6	-4.9%
TOTAL	66,451	33,078	46.3%	50.9%	2.8%	41,411	47.1%	52.6%	0.3%	2,218	3,669	-825	14.5%	21.8%	1,450	0.9%	303
LEVER
		2000				2004				Change from 2000	(000)		% Change from 2000		Bush Net Increase
State	Prct	Total	GORE	BUSH	NADER	Total	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	Margin	Margin	Incid
AR	180	83	47.9%	48.8%	3.3%	96	47.3%	51.9%	0.8%	6	9	-2	14%	23%	3.7	3.7%	1
CT	809	1448	55.8%	39.9%	4.3%	1544	54.8%	44.4%	0.8%	38	107	-49	5%	18%	68.4	5.4%	0
KY	70	24	30.9%	68.5%	0.6%	28	36.9%	62.7%	0.4%	3	1	0	39%	7%	-1.8	-11.8%	0
LA	2348	948	40.9%	58.0%	1.1%	1047	37.4%	62.3%	0.3%	4	102	-7	1%	19%	97.8	7.7%	0
MI	614	446	48.7%	49.4%	1.9%	516	47.7%	51.7%	0.5%	29	47	-6	13%	21%	18.0	3.4%	1
NJ	1558	786	60.8%	36.2%	2.9%	873	57.2%	42.3%	0.5%	22	84	-19	5%	30%	62.8	9.7%	17
NY	15003	6031	60.2%	35.0%	4.8%	6628	58.5%	40.0%	1.5%	247	540	-191	7%	26%	292.5	6.7%	175
NC	49	39	49.7%	50.3%	0.0%	50	47.5%	52.5%	0.0%	5	7	0	23%	35%	2.3	4.4%	0
PA	4203	2373	50.0%	47.8%	2.2%	2747	49.9%	50.1%	0.0%	183	244	-53	15%	21%	60.6	2.5%	49
TN	206	95	47.0%	52.7%	0.3%	110	40.6%	59.1%	0.3%	0	15	0	0%	30%	15.0	12.8%	0
TX	131	124	54.0%	45.1%	0.9%	144	49.8%	50.2%	0.0%	5	16	-1	7%	29%	11.6	9.3%	0
VA	1387	1528	45.7%	52.4%	1.9%	1801	45.2%	54.8%	0.0%	118	187	-30	17%	23%	69.1	2.8%	0
WV	118	44	52.5%	46.2%	1.3%	47	48.9%	50.6%	0.5%	0	3	0	0%	17%	3.5	7.9%
WY	22	8	18.1%	80.1%	1.8%	8	19.7%	79.5%	0.9%	0	0	0	17%	7%	0.2	-2.2%	0
MA						24.4	53.8%	46.2%
TOTAL	26,698	13,977	54.4%	42.1%	3.5%	15,663	52.9%	46.3%	0.8%	658	1,363	-358	8.6%	23.1%	706	5.8%	243
PUNCH
		2000				2004				Change from 2000			% Change from 2000		Bush Net Increase
State	Prct	Total	GORE	BUSH	NADER	Total	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	Margin	Margin	Incid
AR	238	78	43.3%	54.0%	2.7%	91	40.3%	59.1%	0.7%	3	12	-2	9%	28%	8.8	8.1%	0
CA	1278	443	46.6%	49.3%	4.1%	435	47.8%	52.2%	0.0%	1	8	-18	1%	4%	6.8	1.6%	0
CO	22	14	28.9%	66.4%	4.7%	16	29.7%	69.7%	0.6%	1	2	-1	17%	19%	1.1	2.5%	0
ID	477	292	29.1%	66.8%	4.1%	352	32.3%	67.7%	0.0%	29	44	-12	34%	22%	14.7	-2.3%	0
IL	6764	2599	62.4%	35.3%	2.3%	2813	63.2%	36.8%	0.0%	157	117	-60	10%	13%	-39.4	0.7%	85
IN	766	314	42.9%	57.1%	0.0%	345	39.4%	60.6%	0.0%	2	30	0	1%	17%	28.1	6.8%	0
MI	1214	1013	46.5%	51.6%	2.0%	1149	47.1%	52.4%	0.5%	71	80	-14	15%	15%	9.0	0.2%	11
MS	204	79	36.2%	62.9%	0.9%	91	33.3%	66.4%	0.3%	2	11	0	7%	23%	9.3	6.5%	0
MO	1627	829	46.9%	51.5%	1.6%	960	44.7%	55.3%	0.0%	44	104	-13	11%	24%	60.3	6.0%	3
MT	93	48	27.2%	67.4%	5.4%	54	31.6%	67.1%	1.3%	4	4	-2	32%	13%	0.1	-4.8%	2
NC	201	225	41.0%	59.0%	0.0%	265	40.9%	59.1%	0.0%	16	24	0	17%	18%	7.7	0.2%	9
OH	8897	3281	46.8%	50.7%	2.6%	3939	48.6%	51.4%	0.0%	378	364	-84	25%	22%	-14.8	-1.0%	101
PA	1030	573	43.3%	54.5%	2.2%	686	43.9%	56.1%	0.0%	53	72	-12	21%	23%	19.5	1.0%	1
TN	352	179	48.3%	51.4%	0.3%	239	42.3%	57.4%	0.3%	15	45	0	17%	49%	30.4	11.9%	0
TX	414	357	35.1%	63.7%	1.2%	400	33.0%	67.0%	0.0%	7	40	-4	5%	18%	33.6	5.3%	1
UT	20	7	44.6%	50.9%	4.4%	8	40.6%	58.4%	1.0%	0	1	0	3%	29%	1.0	11.5%	0
VA	155	224	39.0%	59.4%	1.6%	257	41.6%	58.4%	0.0%	20	17	-4	23%	13%	-2.5	-3.7%	0
WA	1622	497	43.5%	52.3%	4.2%	627	46.3%	52.8%	0.9%	74	71	-15	34%	27%	-3.3	-2.3%	0
WV	618	228	47.1%	51.3%	1.6%	275	44.7%	54.8%	0.5%	16	34	-2	15%	29%	18.0	5.8%	0
WY	91	27	18.8%	79.1%	2.0%	31	19.7%	79.4%	0.9%	1	3	0	20%	15%	2.3	-0.6%	0
TOTAL	26,083	11,306	48.6%	49.1%	2.3%	13,037	49.0%	50.9%	0.1%	890	1,084	-243	16.2%	19.5%	194	1.4%	213
DRE
		2000				2004				Change from 2000			% Change from 2000		Bush Net Increase
State	Prct	Total	GORE	BUSH	NADER	Total	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	Margin	Margin	Incid
AL	97	83	29.0%	69.6%	1.5%	100	25.3%	74.3%	0.5%	1	16	-1	4%	28%	15.0	8.4%	1
AR	152	46	45.0%	51.9%	3.1%	50	44.1%	55.4%	0.5%	1	4	-1	7%	16%	2.5	4.4%	0
CA	6818	2749	50.9%	45.8%	3.4%	2671	50.7%	49.3%	0.0%	-45	59	-92	-3%	5%	104.3	3.8%	44
CO	939	427	52.4%	42.5%	5.1%	475	57.2%	42.2%	0.6%	48	19	-19	22%	10%	-29.5	-5.2%	26
DE	400	326	55.4%	42.0%	2.5%	374	53.5%	45.9%	0.6%	19	34	-6	11%	25%	15.2	5.8%	0
FL	3078	3078	53.9%	44.7%	1.4%	3835	52.1%	47.4%	0.5%	342	443	-27	21%	32%	101.3	4.5%	231
GA	2908	2562	43.3%	55.2%	1.4%	3235	41.6%	58.4%	0.0%	235	475	-36	21%	34%	239.5	4.9%	48
IN	3065	1233	40.6%	59.4%	0.0%	1410	37.7%	62.3%	0.0%	30	147	0	6%	20%	116.7	5.9%	4
IA	292	143	46.7%	51.3%	2.0%	161	46.6%	53.0%	0.4%	8	12	-2	12%	16%	3.5	1.6%	0
KS	703	392	37.4%	59.7%	2.9%	444	36.9%	62.5%	0.6%	17	43	-9	12%	18%	26.1	3.3%	1
KY	2798	1206	39.8%	58.7%	1.4%	1426	37.3%	62.2%	0.5%	52	179	-10	11%	25%	126.7	6.0%	2
LA	1550	792	51.1%	47.7%	1.3%	881	48.5%	51.1%	0.4%	23	72	-7	6%	19%	49.4	5.9%	136
MD	1666	1915	57.1%	40.2%	2.7%	2186	56.0%	43.5%	0.5%	130	181	-43	12%	23%	51.1	4.4%	6
MI	1632	805	66.3%	32.1%	1.6%	941	67.1%	32.4%	0.4%	98	47	-8	18%	18%	-51.0	-0.5%	59
NV	1208	585	47.9%	51.6%	0.6%	813	48.4%	51.0%	0.6%	114	113	1	41%	38%	-0.2	-1.1%	27
NJ	4487	2243	55.0%	42.0%	3.0%	2485	51.6%	47.9%	0.6%	47	248	-54	4%	26%	201.0	9.4%	26
NM	1284	532	49.6%	46.7%	3.8%	670	50.7%	48.7%	0.5%	76	78	-16	29%	32%	1.9	0.9%	93
NY	217	105	46.1%	49.1%	4.8%	117	46.1%	52.1%	1.8%	5	9	-3	11%	17%	3.8	2.9%	0
NC	1203	1282	42.1%	57.9%	0.0%	1499	43.0%	57.0%	0.0%	104	113	0	19%	15%	9.4	-1.7%	16
OH	1615	692	49.1%	48.2%	2.6%	859	52.6%	47.4%	0.0%	112	73	-18	33%	22%	-38.9	-4.4%	116
PA	2720	1240	63.6%	34.5%	1.9%	1467	64.3%	35.7%	0.0%	156	95	-24	20%	22%	-60.6	0.4%	246
SC	1623	1221	40.0%	58.4%	1.6%	1366	39.8%	59.9%	0.4%	55	104	-14	11%	15%	49.5	1.7%	23
TN	1591	1565	48.2%	51.6%	0.2%	1864	42.8%	56.8%	0.4%	44	251	4	6%	31%	206.3	10.5%	4
TX	2953	2604	41.8%	55.1%	3.2%	2974	45.1%	54.9%	0.0%	253	200	-83	23%	14%	-53.0	-3.4%	54
VA	493	701	47.2%	49.9%	3.0%	744	50.8%	49.2%	0.0%	47	16	-21	14%	5%	-30.8	-4.3%	1
WA	901	291	49.2%	47.6%	3.3%	354	50.5%	48.8%	0.7%	36	34	-7	25%	25%	-1.6	-0.2%	7
WV	145	53	49.7%	48.5%	1.8%	62	46.6%	52.7%	0.7%	3	7	-1	10%	28%	4.5	7.3%	0
WY	13	5	20.6%	76.5%	2.9%	5	18.3%	80.8%	0.9%	0	1	0	-4%	14%	0.6	6.6%	0
TOTAL	46,551	28,875	49.1%	48.9%	2.0%	33,467	48.3%	51.4%	0.3%	2,012	3,074	-495	14.2%	21.8%	1,062	3.2%	1,171
OTHER
		2000				2004				Change from 2000			% Change from 2000		Bush Net Increase
State	Precincts	Total	GORE	BUSH	NADER	Total	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	Margin	Margin	Incid
IL	1340	679	46.8%	51.2%	2.0%	789	46.3%	53.7%	0.0%	47	76	-14	15%	22%	28.6	3.0%	4
IN	1652	584	44.5%	55.5%	0.0%	667	43.4%	56.6%	0.0%	29	54	0	11%	17%	24.7	2.3%	4
MS	159	70	48.8%	50.7%	0.5%	73	46.9%	52.9%	0.2%	0	3	0	1%	9%	3.0	4.0%	0
MO	1331	975	46.8%	51.4%	1.7%	1109	46.9%	53.1%	0.0%	64	88	-17	14%	17%	23.6	1.6%	2
NE	1737	638	33.4%	63.0%	3.6%	751	32.9%	66.4%	0.7%	36	112	-17	17%	28%	76.4	3.9%	0
																21.3%	0
NC	91	91	39.8%	60.2%	0.0%	115	37.7%	62.3%	0.0%	7	17	0	19%	31%	9.9	4.4%	0
OR	1791	1236	48.0%	46.6%	5.4%	1399	52.6%	47.4%	0.0%	142	87	-67	24%	15%	-55.3	-3.8%	0
SD	718	285	38.7%	61.3%	0.0%	356	38.6%	60.2%	1.1%	27	40	4	25%	23%	12.8	-0.9%	0
UT	1771	760	26.1%	66.8%	7.1%	842	26.6%	72.1%	1.3%	25	99	-43	13%	20%	73.8	4.8%	1
VA	25	26	31.7%	66.9%	1.5%	3	41.5%	58.5%	0.0%	-7	-16	0	-87%	-91%	-8.6	-18.1%	0
WI	3356	2487	48.3%	48.0%	3.6%	2882	50.0%	49.5%	0.5%	238	232	-75	20%	19%	-6.5	-0.2%	25
ME						711	54.0%	44.9%	1.1%
RI						413	59.9%	39.1%	1.0%
VT						278	59.8%	38.8%	1.5%
MA						15	62.7%	37.3%	0.0%
TOTAL	14,304	7,963	43.92%	52.70%	3.38%	10,550	46.5%	53.0%	0.5%	601	801	-232	17.2%	19.1%	200	1.1%	36

Table 2

Summary: Election Day 2004 Recorded Votes by Voting Method

Voting	2004				Share			Vote Change			Pct Chg vs 2000		Bush Net Increase
Method	Precints	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	Margin	Margin%	Incid
	184,824	56,099	59,505	404	48.36%	51.29%	0.35%	9,363	12,100	-2,171	20.0%	25.5%	2,737	2.2%	1,966
Paper	4,737	828	1,043	8	44.07%	55.52%	0.42%	104	156	-39	15.9%	19.0%	52	0.6%	0
Optical	66,451	19,525	21,776	111	47.15%	52.58%	0.27%	2,218	3,669	-825	14.5%	21.8%	1,450	0.9%	303
Lever	26,698	8,279	7,259	125	52.86%	46.34%	0.80%	658	1,363	-358	8.6%	23.1%	706	5.8%	243
Punch	26,083	6,384	6,638	15	48.97%	50.92%	0.12%	890	1,084	-243	16.2%	19.5%	194	1.4%	213
DRE	46,551	16,178	17,198	91	48.34%	51.39%	0.27%	2,012	3,074	-495	14.2%	21.8%	1,062	3.2%	1,171
Other	14,304	4,905	5,592	53	46.49%	53.00%	0.50%	601	801	-232	17.2%	19.1%	200	-2.3%	36

Table 3

2004 Unadjusted Exit Poll by Voting Method

(Election Day recorded vote)

Voting	2004	WPE Adj	Share	WPE Adj	Vote
Method	WPE	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Total
Total	6.6%	51.7%	48.0%	59,937	55,668	404	116,008
Paper	2.2%	45.2%	54.4%	849	1,023	8	1,879
Optical	6.1%	50.2%	49.5%	20,788	20,512	111	41,411
Lever	10.6%	58.2%	41.0%	9,109	6,429	125	15,663
Punch	6.6%	52.3%	47.6%	6,814	6,208	15	13,037
DRE	7.1%	51.9%	47.8%	17,366	16,009	91	33,467
Other	2.0%	47.5%	52.0%	5,011	5,486	53	10,550

Table 4

True Vote Calculation

(adjustments to Election Day recorded vote)

		Vote	Nader			Share	Nader
	Kerry	Bush	+Other	Total	Kerry	Bush	+Other
Election Day	56,227	59,686	1,162	117,074	48.03	51.0%	1.0%
Unadj EPoll	59,937	55,668	1,162	116,767	51.3%	47.7%	1.0%
Late	2,800	2,354	58	5,213	53.7%	45.2%	1.1%
Uncounted	3,300	1,056	44	4,400	75.0%	24.0%	1.0%
Stuffed	0	-700	0	-700	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
True Vote	66,037	58,378	1,264	125,679	52.5%	46.5%	1.0%
Share	52.5%	46.5%	1.0%	100.0%
Table 5 Sensitivity Analysis			Kerry Vote Share
			Uncounted to Kerry
	52.5%	50%	60%	75%			Kerry	Bush	Other
Stuffed	100%	51.67%	52.02%	52.54%		Uncounted	75%	24%	1%
Bush	90%	51.61%	51.96%	52.49%		Stuffed	0%	100%	0%
	80%	51.56%	51.91%	52.43%
Table 6
Vote share comparison Pre-elect Model		Kerry 51.0%	Bush 48.0%	Other 1.0%	51.8-48.2 (2-party)
State ExitP		52.0%	47.0%	1.0%	WPE/IMS
NEP (12:22am) Gender		50.8%	48.2%	1.0%	3% chg	613 incr	In sample
Voted 2k		51.2%	47.5%	1.3%	41B/39K>	43B/37K	impossible
When Decided		51.2%	47.9%	0.9%	50K – 50B on Oct 1 > 46K - 53B
Bush Approval		52.7%	46.3%	1.0%	Poll avg 48% > 53%
Party ID		51.2%	47.8%	1.0%	39D / 35R > 37D / 37R
Voting Method		52.5%	46.5%	1.0%	Unadjusted+ late +uncounted -stuffed
Model		53.6%	45.4%	1.0%	True Vote Model

Table 7

National Exit Poll

(Final forced to match recorded vote by changes to weights and vote shares)

Preliminary National Exit Poll						Final National Exit Poll
(13047 sample)						(13660 sample)
GENDER	Votes	Pct	Kerry	Bush	Other	Pct	Kerry	Bush	Other
Male	56.26	46%	47%	52%	1%	46.0%	44.0%	55.0%	1.0%
Fem	66.04	54%	54%	45%	1%	54.0%	51.0%	48.0%	1.0%
Share	122.30	100.0%	50.8%	48.2%	1.0%	100.0%	47.8%	51.2%	1.0%
Votes			62.10	58.97	1.22	122.30	58.43	62.64	1.22
PARTY ID	Votes	Pct	Kerry	Bush	Other	Pct	Kerry	Bush	Other
Dem	46.47	38%	91%	9%	0%	37%	89%	11%	0%
Rep	42.80	35%	7%	93%	0%	37%	6%	93%	1%
Ind	33.02	27%	52%	44%	4%	26%	49%	49%	2%
Share	122.30	100.0%	51.2%	47.8%	1.0%	100.0%	47.9%	51.2%	0.9%
Votes			62.46	58.52	1.32	122.30	58.57	62.64	1.09
VOTED2k	Votes	Pct	Kerry	Bush	Other
New	13.45	11%	55%	43%	2%
						Pct	Kerry	Bush	Other
New/DNV2k	20.79	17%	57%	41%	2%	17%	54%	45%	1%
Gore	47.70	39%	91%	8%	1%	37%	90%	10%	0%
Bush	50.14	41%	10%	90%	0%	43%	9%	91%	0%
Other	3.67	3%	64%	17%	19%	3%	71%	21%	8%
Share	122.30	100.0%	51.2%	47.5%	1.3%	100.0%	48.5%	51.1%	0.4%
Votes		122.30	62.62	58.09	1.59	122.30	59.29	62.50	0.50
DECIDED	Votes	Pct	Kerry	Bush	Other	Pct	Kerry	Bush	Other
Today	7.34	6%	53%	40%	7%	5%	52%	45%	3%
3days	3.67	3%	53%	41%	6%	4%	55%	42%	3%
7days	2.45	2%	48%	50%	2%	2%	48%	51%	1%
30days	12.23	10%	60%	38%	2%	10%	54%	44%	2%
Over 30	96.61	79%	50%	50%	0%	79%	46%	53%	1%
Share	122.30	100.0%	51.2%	47.9%	0.9%	100.0%	48.5%	51.1%	0.4%
Votes		122.30	62.65	58.62	1.03	122.30	58.09	62.64	1.57
SIZE	Votes	Pct	Kerry	Bush	Other	Pct	Kerry	Bush	Other
Big City	15.90	13%	64%	36%	0%	13%	61%	39%	0%
Small City	22.01	18%	53%	45%	2%	18%	49%	49%	2%
Suburbs	55.03	45%	50%	49%	1%	45%	47%	52%	1%
Small Town	9.78	8%	52%	46%	2%	8%	48%	50%	2%
Rural	19.57	16%	43%	56%	1%	16%	40%	59%	1%
Share	122.30	100.00%	51.4%	47.5%	1.1%	100.0%	48.5%	51.1%	0.4%
Votes		122.30	62.86	58.06	1.38	122.30	58.87	62.04	1.38
BUSH	48%					53%	Approval
APPROVAL	Votes	Pct	Kerry	Bush	Other	Pct	Kerry	Bush	Other
Strong Appr	37.91	31%	4%	96%	0%	33%	5%	94%	1%
Approve	20.79	17%	17%	82%	1%	20%	15%	83%	2%
Disapprove	17.12	14%	84%	13%	3%	12%	80%	18%	2%
Strong Dis	46.47	38%	97%	2%	1%	35%	97%	2%	1%
Share	122.30	100.0%	52.7%	46.3%	1.0%	100.0%	48.2%	50.5%	1.3%
Votes		122.30	64.51	56.60	1.19	122.30	58.95	61.73	1.61