Oct. 20, 2011
“False recall” was the final argument promoted by exit poll
naysayers to explain away the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning
Bush/Gore voter mix in the 2004 Final National Exit Poll (NEP). It was an
attempt to cast doubt on the preliminary NEP (Kerry won by 51-48%) and the
unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Kerry won by 52-47%). It was a last-ditch
attempt to maintain the fiction that Bush really did win fairly and that the
unadjusted and preliminary exit polls "behaved badly". The bottom
line: exit polls should not be trusted (or even used) here in the
"False recall" stated that the mathematically impossible Final NEP mix was due to returning Gore voters who had the temerity of misstating their past vote to the exit pollsters, claiming they actually voted for Bush. This strange behavior was apparently due to faulty memory - a “slow-drifting fog” unique to Gore voters and/or a desire to be associated with Bush, the official “winner” of the 2000 election. The fact that he actually lost by 540,000 recorded votes was dismissed as irrelevant.
Although there is no evidence that Gore voters came to love Bush (even after he stole the 2000 election), or that returning Gore voters were more forgetful and dishonest than Bush voters, the "false recall" canard has been successful in keeping the “bad exit poll” myth alive. Such is the power of the mainstream media. "False recall" was the equivalent of the famous “Hail Mary” touchdown pass. It followed the "reluctant Bush responder" (rBr) and "Swing vs. Red-shift" arguments, both of which had been refuted (see the links below).
Since unadjusted 2004 NEP data was not provided in the mainstream media, "false recall" was a possibility, however remote and ridiculous the premise. It was a very thin reed that has been surprisingly resilient. Apparently it still is to Bill Clinton, Al Franken and even Michael Moore. Not to mention the mainstream "liberal" media who continue to maintain the fiction that Bush really did win.
Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (NEP) data from the Roper website has been added as a new worksheet in the True Vote Model. Demographic category weights can be compared to the corresponding weights in the Final NEP. This should finally put "false recall" to eternal rest. Of the 13,660 respondents, 7064 (51.7%) said they voted for Kerry, 6414 (47.0%) for Bush and 182 (1.3%) for other third-parties. The data confirms Kerry's 52.0% aggregate share of the state exit polls (over 70,000 respondents).
But what did the respondents really say about how they voted in 2000? Of the 3,182 respondents who were asked that question, 1,222 (38.4%) said they voted for Gore, 1,257 (39.5%) said Bush, 119 (3.75%) said Other. The remaining 585 (18.4%) were either first-timers or others who did not vote in 2000. When the actual Bush/Gore 39.5/38.4% mix and 12:22am preliminary NEP vote shares are used to calculate the final vote shares, Kerry has 51.7% - exactly matching the unadjusted NEP cited above. In order to match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to adjust the Final NEP returning voter mix from 39.5/38.4% to an impossible 43/37%. But they had to do more than just replace the mix. They also had to inflate the Bush shares of new and returning voters to implausible levels.
Now, with the actual responses to the question "Who did you vote for in 2000", there is no longer any question as to whether Gore voters forgot or lied or were in a slow moving fog. The "pristine" results show that the actual Bush/Gore returning voter mix (39.5/38.4%) differs substantially from the artificial, mathematically impossible Final NEP (43/37%) mix. The earlier proof that the returning voter mix was adjusted in the Final NEP (even though it was mathematically impossible) to match the recorded vote is confirmed by the data itself.
This is irrefutable evidence that the Final NEP is not a true sample. Of course, we knew this all along. The exit pollsters admit it but they don't like to talk about the fact that it's standard operating procedure to force ALL final exit polls to match the recorded vote. This is easily accomplished by adjusting returning voter turnout from the previous election to get the results to "fit". Of course, the mainstream media political pundits never talk about it. So how would you know?
Political sites such as
False recall followed the "reluctant Bush responder" (rBr) and "Swing vs. Red-shift" arguments (see links below), both of which have been refuted.
http://richardcharnin.com/FalseRecallRebuttal.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/ConversationAboutFalseRecall.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/FalseRecallPetard.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingVsRedshift1992to2004.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShiftHoisted.htm
The Final NEP is mathematically
impossible since the number of returning Bush voters implied by the 43%
weighting is 52.6 million (122.3 million votes were recorded in 2004). Bush
only had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died, therefore the number of returning Bush voters must
have been less than 48 million. Assuming 98% turnout, there were 47 million
returning Bush voters, 5.6 million fewer than implied by the Final NEP.
Based on 12:22am NEP vote shares,
Kerry wins by 10m votes with 53.2% - assuming equal 98% turnout of returning
Bush and Gore voters. He wins by 7 million given 98/90% Bush/Gore turnout.
Total votes cast in 2000 and 2004 are used to calculate returning and new
voters.
Only 3182 respondents were asked
their PAST 2000 vote but ALL exit poll respondents were asked whom the JUST
voted for in 2004. The Kerry trend was consistent at the 7:33pm (11027) and
12:22am (13047) time lines. Kerry gained 1085 votes and Bush 1025 from 7:33pm
to 12:22am. Third-parties declined by 90 due to the 4% to 3% change in share of
the electorate.
False recall is disproved in a
number of ways.
1. False recall is based on a
subset (3168) of the Final NEP 13660 respondents who were asked how they voted
in 2000. But all 13660 were asked whom they JUST voted for in 2004.
2. The Preliminary 12:22am NEP
consisted of 3025 of the total 3168 respondents who were asked how they voted
in 2000. The weighted result indicated that returning Bush voters comprised 41%
(50.1m) of the electorate. The Final NEP "Voted in 2000" cross tab
(as well as all other cross tabs) was forced to match the recorded vote. To do
this required that 43% (52.6m) of the electorate be returning Bush voters. The
change from 41% to 43% was based on just 143 additional respondents (from 3025
to 3168).
a) There was an impossible late
switch in respondent totals. Between 7:33pm and 12:22am, the trend was
consistent: Kerry gained 254 votes, Bush 239. Third-parties declined by 13. But
between 12:22am and the Final, Kerry's total declined
by 13, Bush gained 182 and third party lost 26.
b) It was also impossible that
returning Bush voters would increase from 41% to 43% (122) and returning Gore
voters would decline from 39% to 37% (8). Regardless, the Final 43/37% split
was mathematically impossible. It implied there were 5.6 million more returning
Bush voters than could have voted, assuming that 47 (98%) of the 48 million who
were alive turned out.
c) The increase in Bush's share of
new voters from 41% to 45% (+31) was impossible; there were just 24 additional
new voters. Kerry lost 2.
d) The changes in the Gender
demographic were impossible. The Kerry trend was consistent at the 11027 and
13047 respondent time lines. Kerry gained 1085 and Bush 1025. Third-parties
declined by 90.
e) There was an impossible shift
to Bush among the final 613 respondents (from 13047 to 13660). Kerry’s total
declined by 99, while Bush gained 706. Third-parties gained 6. That could not
have happened unless weights and vote shares were adjusted by a human. In other
words, it could not have been the result of an actual sample.
3. False recall assumes that
43/37% was a sampled result. But we have just shown that it is mathematically
impossible because a) it implies there were 5.6 million more returning Bush
voters than could have voted in 2004 and b) the 41/39% split at 12:22am could
not have changed to 43/37% in the Final with just 143 additional respondents in
the "Voted 2000" category.
4. The exit pollsters claim that
it is standard operating procedure to force the exit poll to match the recorded
vote. The Final was forced to match the recorded vote by a) adjusting the
returning Bush/Gore voter mix to an impossible 43/37% and b) simultaneously increasing
the Bush shares of returning Bush, Gore and new voters to implausible levels
using impossible adjustments.
5. Just reviewing the timeline, it
is obvious that the exit pollsters do in fact adjust weights and vote shares to
force a match to the recorded
vote. It invalidates the naysayer claim that the 43/37 split was due to Gore
voter false recall. Rather, it was due to exit poll data manipulation.
6. Which is more believable: a)
that the exit pollsters followed the standard procedure of forcing the poll to
match the vote, or b) that at least 8% more returning Gore voters claimed they
voted for Bush in 2000 than returning Bush voters claimed they voted for Gore?
7. As indicated above, there was a
maximum number of returning Bush 2000 voters who could have voted in 2004: the
ones who were still living. So the 43/37% split is not only impossible, it is
also irrelevant. It doesn’t matter what the returning voters said regarding
their 2000 vote. We already know the four-year voter mortality rate (5%) and
maximum LIVING voter turnout (98%).
8. False recall assumes that the
returning voter mix is a sampled result. But the 4% increase in differential
between returning Bush and Gore voters (from 2% to 6%) is impossible since the
total number of respondents increased by just 143 (from 3025 to 3168).
9. The false recall claim is based
on NES surveys of 500-600 respondents that indicate voters misstate past votes.
But the reported deviations are based on the prior recorded vote – not the True
Vote. There have been an average of 7 million net
uncounted votes in each of the last eleven elections. The majority (70-80%)
were Democratic. In 2000, there were 5.4 million. When measured against the
True Vote (based on total votes cast, reduced by mortality and voter turnout),
the average deviations are near zero. Therefore, the NES respondents told the
truth about their past vote.
10. The 2006 and 2008 Final
National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote with impossible
49/43% and 46/37% returning Bush/Kerry voter percentages. The 2008 Final
required 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. These anomalies are
just additional proof that false recall is totally bogus – a final “Hail Mary”
pass to divert, confuse and cover-up the truth. The exit pollsters just did
what they are paid to do:
2004 National
Exit Poll
Timeline
Voted
in 2000
7:33pm 2545
respondents 80.3% of
3168
Voted
in Respondents
Share Respondents Vote
MoE 2000 Mix Total Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
1.9% DNV 17% 433 - 59% 39% 2% 255 169 9
1.1% Gore 38% 967 - 91% 8% 1% 880 77 10
1.1% Bush 41% 1043 - 9% 90% 1% 94 939 10
1.9% Other 4% 102 - 65% 13% 22% 66 13 22
1.9% Total 2545 - 50.90% 47.09% 2.01% 1295 1198 51
12:22am 3025
respondents 95.5% of 3168
MoE Voted Mix Total Change Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
1.8% DNV 17% 514 82 57% 41% 2% 293 211 10
1.0% Gore 39% 1180 213 91% 8% 1% 1074 94 12
1.1% Bush 41% 1240 197 10% 90% 0% 124 1116 0
1.7% Other 3% 91 -11 64% 17% 19% 58 15 17
1.8% Total 3025 480 51.20% 47.50% 1.30% 1549 1437 39
Change from
7:33pm 480 52.79% 49.67% -2.46% 254 239 -12
Final 3168
respondents (forced to match the recorded vote)
Mix Total Change Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 17% 539 24 54% 45% 1% 291 242 5
Gore 37% 1172 -8 90% 10% 0% 1055 117 0
Bush 43% 1362 122 9% 91% 0% 123 1240 0
Other 3% 95 4 71% 21% 8% 67 20 8
Total 3168 143 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 1536 1619 13
Change from
12:22am 143 -9.1% 127.5% -18.4% -13 182 -26
Change from
7:33pm 623 38.6% 67.5% -6.1% 240 421 -38
The Gender
Demographic
7:33pm 11027
respondents (80.7%)
MoE 11027 Mix Total Change Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
0.93% Female 54% 5955 - 53% 45% 2% 3156 2680 119
0.93% Male 46% 5072 - 47% 51% 2% 2384 2587 101
Total 11027 - 50.24% 47.76% 2.00% 5540 5266 221
12:22am 13047 respondents
(95.5%)
MoE Gender Mix Total Change Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
0.86% Female 54% 7045 1091 54% 45% 1% 3805 3170 70
0.86% Male 46% 6002 929 47% 52% 1% 2821 3121 60
Total 13047 2020 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 6626 6291 130
Change from
7:33pm 2020 53.73% 50.73% -4.46% 1086 1025 -90
MoE Gender Mix Total Change Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
0.84% Female 54% 7376 331 51% 48% 1% 3762 3541 74
0.83% Male 46% 6284 282 44% 55% 1% 2765 3456 63
Total 13660 613 47.78% 51.22% 1.0% 6527 6997 137
Change from
12:22am 613 -16.1% 115.1% 1.0% -99 706 7
Change from
7:33pm 2633 37.5% 65.7% -3.2% 987 1731 -84
Final National
Exit Poll
Demographic
Adjustments
* indicates
change in weighting (mix)
Note:
All demographic category cross tabs required changes to the weights and/or
the vote shares in order to force a match to the recorded vote.
Categories which
required changes to weights AND vote shares include: Party-ID, Voted 2000, Bush
Approval, Region, Education, Income, Ideology, When
Decided.
The following
categories required changes ONLY to the vote shares: Gender, Race and Gender,
Age, Military Service, Community Size,
The Final NEP
vote shares and/or weights for Party-ID, Voted 2000, Bush Approval and When
Decided do not agree with other data sources:
-Bush approval:
was 48% based on the average of 11 final pre-election polls. With 48% Bush
approval and preliminary vote shares, Kerry has a 53.6% total share.
-Party-ID: was
39/35% Dem/Rep based on other studies.
-Voted 2000: The
43/37% Bush/Gore weighting mix was mathematically impossible.
-When Decided:
Kerry and Bush were tied in the polls one month prior to the election. The
Final indicates that Bush led by 7 points.
2004 National
Exit
Poll
Voted in 2000
2004
Unadjusted NEP vs. Final
Voted 04 Total Kerry Bush Other
Respondents 13691 7064 6414 182
Voted 100% 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%
NEP Final 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Adjustment -3.43% 3.77% -0.33%
Sex Total Male Female
Respondents 13659 5987 7672
Share 100% 43.8% 56.2%
NEP Final 100% 46% 54%
Adjustment 2.2% -2.2%
Voted 2k Total DNV Gore Bush Other
Respondents 3182 585 1221 1257 119
Share 100% 18.4% 38.4% 39.5% 3.7%
NEP Final 100% 17% 37% 43% 3%
Adjustment -1.4% -1.4% 3.5% -0.7%
Race Total White Black HispanicAsian Other
Respondents 13526 10608 1473 1037 201 207
Share 100% 78.4% 10.9% 7.7% 1.5% 1.5%
NEP Final 100% 79% 12% 6% 2% 1%
Adjustment 0.6% 1.1% -1.7% 0.5% -0.5%
Age Total 18-24 25-29 30-39 40-44 45-49 50-59 60-64 65-74 75+
Respondents 13639 1422 1169 2555 1580 1622 2640 856 1145 650
Share 100% 10.4% 8.6% 18.7% 11.6% 11.9% 19.4% 6.3% 8.4% 4.8%
Party ID Total Dem
Respondents 13121 5020 4531 3570 2988 582
Share 100% 38.3% 34.5% 27.2% 22.8% 4.4%
NEP Final 100% 37% 37% 26% 26%
Adjustment -1.3% 2.5% -1.2% 3.2%
Philosophy Total Liberal Mod Conservative
Respondents 12939 2909 5968 4062
Share 100% 22.5% 46.1% 31.4%
NEP Final 100% 21% 45% 34%
Adjustment -1.5% -1.1% 2.6%
First-time voter Total Yes No
Respondents 6704 813 5891
Share 100% 12.1% 87.9%
NEP Final 100% 11% 89%
Adjustment - -1.1% 1.1%
Income Total 0-15 15-30 30-50 50-75 75-100 100-150 150-200 200+
Respondents 12321 1011 1804 2654 2850 1722 1384 483 413
Share 100% 8.2% 14.6% 21.5% 23.1% 14% 11.2% 3.9% 3.4%
NEP Final 100% 8% 15% 22% 23% 18% 11% 3%
Adjustment - -0.2% 0.4% 0.5% -0.1% 4% -0.2% -0.4%
Education Total No HS HSG
Respondents 9986 400 2095 3217 2628 1646
Share 100% 4% 21% 32.2% 26.3% 16.5%
NEP Final 100% 4% 22% 32% 26% 16%
Adjustment - 0% 1% -0.2% -0.3% -0.5%
Bush Approval Total Str Appr Appr Dissap Str Dis
Respondents 6913 2131 1358 846 2578
Share 100% 30.8% 19.6% 12.2% 37.3%
Approve/Dis 100% 50.4% - 49.5%
NEP Final 100% 53% - 47%
Adjustment - 2.6% - -2.5%
Party ID Total Dem Rep Other
Respondents 13121 5020 4531 3570
Share 100% 38.3% 34.5% 27.2%
NEP Final 100% 37% 37% 26%
Adjustment - -1.3% 2.5% -1.2%
Bush Approval Total Yes No
Respondents 6913 3489 3424
Share 100% 50.5% 49.5%
NEP Final 100% 53% 47%
Adjustment - 2.5% -2.5%
Region Total
Respondents 13719 2922 3686 4463 2648
Share 100% 21.3% 26.9% 32.5% 19.3%
NEP Final 100% 22% 26% 32% 20%
Adjustment 0.7% -0.9% -0.5% 0.7%
Size -5 Total 500k+ 50-500k Suburbs 10-50k Rural
Respondents 13711 1498 2814 6193 1160 2046
Share 100% 10.9% 20.5% 45.2% 8.5% 14.9%
NEP Final 100% 12% 19% 45% 8% 16%
Adjustment - 1.1% -1.5% -0.2% -0.5% 1.1%
Size -3 Total City Suburb Rural
Respondents 11719 3504 5441 2774
Share 100% 29.9% 46.4% 23.7%
NEP Final 100% 31% 45% 24%
Adjustment - 1.1% -1.4% 0.3%