2004 Battleground pre-election
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html
Bush led the final RCP pre-election
Bush won the unweighted average recorded vote by 49.5-49.3
The Democrats did 1-2% better in RV polls than
Assume they did +1% better in each battleground state:
Battleground state RV poll average: Kerry by 47.9-46.3
Late undecided voters broke for Kerry by 75-25% (UVA)
Allocating undecided voters:
Battleground RV projection: Kerry by 51.5-47.5%
Unadjusted exit poll: Kerry by 52.4-46.5
Sensitivity Analysis
Kerry’s projected RV share for various UVA and RV deviations
|
|
Kerry Projected
Share |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
+RV |
UVA to
Kerry |
|
|
|
|
52.5 |
50% |
55% |
65% |
75% |
|
2.0 |
51.3 |
51.6 |
52.0 |
52.5 |
|
1.5 |
50.8 |
51.1 |
51.5 |
52.0 |
|
1.0 |
50.3 |
50.6 |
51.0 |
51.5 |
|
0.5 |
49.8 |
50.1 |
50.5 |
51.0 |
|
0.0 |
49.3 |
49.6 |
50.0 |
50.5 |
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|
RCP
Battleground |
Registered
Voter |
|
RV
projection (UVA) |
Unadjusted |
Recorded
Vote |
|||||||
|
|
Pre-election
|
|
-1 |
+1 |
|
0.25 |
0.75 |
|
Exit Poll |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
47.3 |
46.9 |
1.7 |
46.3 |
47.9 |
1.8 |
47.5 |
51.5 |
1.0 |
46.5 |
52.4 |
49.5 |
49.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FL |
48.2 |
47.6 |
1.0 |
47.2 |
48.6 |
1.0 |
48.0 |
51.0 |
1.0 |
48.2 |
51.0 |
52.1 |
47.2 |
|
OH |
48.8 |
46.7 |
- |
47.8 |
47.7 |
- |
48.9 |
51.1 |
0.0 |
45.5 |
54.0 |
50.8 |
48.7 |
|
PA |
47.3 |
48.2 |
- |
46.3 |
49.2 |
- |
47.4 |
52.6 |
0.0 |
44.2 |
55.1 |
45.4 |
50.9 |
|
WI |
47.7 |
46.8 |
1.7 |
46.7 |
47.8 |
1.7 |
47.7 |
50.7 |
1.7 |
46.9 |
52.1 |
49.3 |
49.7 |
|
IA |
47.4 |
47.1 |
1.0 |
46.4 |
48.1 |
1.0 |
47.5 |
51.5 |
1.0 |
48.4 |
50.7 |
49.9 |
49.2 |
|
|
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|
|
|
MN |
45.3 |
48.5 |
5.0 |
44.3 |
49.5 |
5.0 |
44.6 |
50.4 |
5.0 |
43.0 |
55.7 |
47.6 |
51.1 |
|
MI |
45.2 |
48.7 |
1.5 |
44.2 |
49.7 |
1.5 |
45.4 |
53.2 |
1.5 |
44.6 |
54.4 |
47.8 |
51.2 |
|
MO |
49.5 |
45.3 |
- |
48.5 |
46.3 |
- |
49.8 |
50.2 |
0.0 |
50.4 |
49.0 |
53.3 |
46.1 |
|
NM |
47.8 |
46.4 |
1.3 |
46.8 |
47.4 |
- |
48.3 |
51.8 |
0.0 |
45.8 |
53.0 |
49.8 |
49.0 |
|
NV |
51.0 |
44.7 |
- |
50.0 |
45.7 |
- |
51.1 |
48.9 |
0.0 |
45.5 |
52.8 |
50.5 |
47.9 |
|
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|
|
CO |
50.0 |
44.8 |
1.0 |
49.0 |
45.8 |
1.0 |
50.1 |
49.0 |
1.0 |
48.6 |
50.1 |
51.7 |
47.0 |
|
NH |
47.5 |
48.5 |
1.3 |
46.5 |
49.5 |
1.3 |
47.2 |
51.5 |
1.3 |
41.9 |
57.2 |
48.9 |
50.2 |
|
ME |
41.5 |
51.0 |
1.0 |
40.5 |
52.0 |
1.0 |
42.1 |
56.9 |
1.0 |
42.6 |
55.6 |
44.6 |
53.6 |
|
WV |
51.5 |
43.0 |
- |
50.5 |
44.0 |
- |
51.9 |
48.1 |
0.0 |
59.0 |
40.2 |
56.1 |
43.2 |
|
OR |
45.0 |
49.8 |
- |
44.0 |
50.8 |
- |
45.3 |
54.7 |
0.0 |
46.4 |
52.2 |
47.2 |
51.3 |
|
|
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|
|
NJ |
42.0 |
49.0 |
2.0 |
41.0 |
50.0 |
2.0 |
42.8 |
55.3 |
2.0 |
41.7 |
57.5 |
46.2 |
52.9 |
|
AR |
51.0 |
44.5 |
- |
50.0 |
45.5 |
2.0 |
50.6 |
47.4 |
2.0 |
53.7 |
45.2 |
54.3 |
44.5 |
|
HI |
44.7 |
43.8 |
- |
43.7 |
44.8 |
- |
46.6 |
53.4 |
0.0 |
41.2 |
58.1 |
45.3 |
54.0 |