2004 Pre-election RV/LV Polling Trend Analysis

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

                                                                                                                                                                

The national pre-election poll, after adjusting for voter turnout and undecided voters, reflects the True Vote.

 

RV polls include newly registered voters.                                                                                                                

The final 15 RCP polls were likely voter polls (LV), a subset of RV polls.                                                                                  

Earlier polls were a mix of LV and RV.

 

In 2004, Democratic new voter registration dwarfed that of the GOP.

There were 22 million voters who did not vote in 2000 (approximately 15 million were first-time voters.

Therefore, final RV polls had to be more accurate than LV polls.                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Kerry led the pre-election polls in August, fell behind in September and rebounded in October.             

Kerry led in the 31 RV polls by 50.1-46.8% after undecided voters were allocated.

Bush led in the 102 LV polls by 49.2-49.0%.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

The majority of new voters (60%) were Democrats.                                                                                                                                    

 

In 2000, 110.8 million were votes cast and 105.4m recorded.

Gore won by 540,000 recorded votes.

In 2004, 125.7 million were cast and 122.3m recorded.                                                                                          

 

Given 1.25% annual voter mortality, 5.5m Election 2000 voters died prior to 2004.

Assuming 98% turnout, 103.2 million Election 2000 voters returned in 2004.                                                                                                  

Approximately 3.2 million of the 103.2m were returning Nader/other voters.

 

Therefore, there were approximately 22.5m (125.7- 103.2) new voters in 2004.                                               

Kerry won 13.3m (59%) of 22.5m new voters, Bush had 8.8m (39%).                                                                

Kerry won 2.0m returning Nader/other voters; Bush had 0.4 million.

 

According to the National Exit Poll,

10% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry

8% of Gore voters defected to Bush.

 

Kerry had 91% (47.3 of 51.9m) of returning Gore voters and 10% (4.8m) of returning Bush voters.

Bush had 90% (42.8m of 47.5m) of returning Bush voters and 8% (4.2m) of returning Gore voters.

Kerry had 67.4m  (53.6%) = 13.3 new+ 2.0 Nader + 47.3 Gore + 4.8 Bush

Bush had 56.2m  (44.8%) = 8.8 new + 0.4 Nader +  4.2 Gore  +  42.8 Bush

 

Kerry had 52.0% in the unadjusted aggregate state exit poll (WPE method).

 

The final 15 RCP national poll average had Bush leading by 49-47%.                                                              

The final Gallup poll was an identical 49-47 before it was adjusted for undecided voters.                         

Gallup assigned 90% of undecided voters to Kerry, so the final Gallup poll had the race tied at 49-49%

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Now let's compare the True Vote result to the pre-election national polls.                                                      

As per Gallup, the final 15 LV poll average, adjusted for undecided voters, was 49-49%.                          

But the LV polls did not sample newly registered voters.                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                              

The Election Model utilized 18 final polls, split equally between RV and LV.                                                   

After allocating 75% of undecided voters to Kerry, he led by 50.9-48.1%                                                        

Based on the 122.3m recorded vote, Kerry won by 62.3-58.8m                                                                          

But the projection did not include the 4.0m uncounted votes.

 

Assuming that Kerry won 75% of the uncounted votes, add 3.0m to his total and 1.0m to Bush.

Kerry's margin becomes  65.3-59.8m (51.9-47.6%).                                                                                                

That's within 0.1% of the unadjusted aggregate exit poll.                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                              

The pre-election LV polls, adjusted for new (RV) voters and undecided voters, matched the Election Model.

But the Election Model did not anticipate that                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                              

5-poll moving average projection trend                                                                                 

75% of undecided voters allocated to Kerry                                                                                                                           

Other 3rd party projection: 1%

 

Real Clear Politics - 133 National Polls Summary

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2-party

 

 

 

Projected

 

5-Poll MA

 

 

RCP

Date

Kerry

Bush

Other

Spread

Kerry

Bush

Diff

 

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

 

133 Poll average

7/6 - 11/1

45.5%

47.4%

2.1%

2.0%

49.0%

51.0%

2.1%

 

49.3%

48.6%

49.5%

49.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

102 LV

7/6 - 11/1

45.6%

48.1%

1.8%

2.5%

48.7%

51.3%

-2.6%

 

49.0%

49.2%

49.0%

49.1%

 

31 RV

7/6 - 9/26

45.0%

45.1%

3.1%

0.0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

50.1%

46.8%

50.4%

46.4%

 

Diff

 

-0.6%

-3.0%

1.3%

-2.4%

1.3%

-1.3%

2.6%

 

1.1%

-2.4%

1.4%

-2.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Final 15 (all LV)

10/22-11/01

47.00%

49.01%

0.94%

2.01%

48.95%

51.05%

2.09%

 

49.29%

49.77%

49.47%

49.51%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Election Model -18 National Polls (9RV, 9LV)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sample

 

Final

Poll

2-party projected

 

 

75% UVA

Projected

5-Poll Moving Average

Election Model

Date

Size

Poll

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Diff

 

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Diff

18 National Polls

Average

1720

Type

47.28

46.89

51.65

48.35

3.31

 

50.90

48.10

51.25

47.75

3.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zogby

2-Nov

1200

LV

47

48

50.75

49.25

1.50

 

50.00

49.00

51.25

47.75

3.50

Harris

2-Nov

5508

LV

50

47

52.25

47.75

4.50

 

51.50

47.50

51.35

47.65

3.70

CBS

1-Nov

1125

RV

46

47

51.25

48.75

2.50

 

50.50

48.50

51.25

47.75

3.50

TIPP

1-Nov

1284

LV

44

45

52.25

47.75

4.50

 

51.50

47.50

51.15

47.85

3.30

Econ

1-Nov

2903

RV

49

45

53.50

46.50

7.00

 

52.75

46.25

51.20

47.80

3.40

Marist

1-Nov

1166

LV

49

48

51.25

48.75

2.50

 

50.50

48.50

50.85

48.15

2.70

ABC

31-Oct

3511

RV

48

47

51.75

48.25

3.50

 

51.00

48.00

51.25

47.75

3.50

NBC

31-Oct

1014

LV

47

48

50.75

49.25

1.50

 

50.00

49.00

51.45

47.55

3.90

Gallup

31-Oct

1866

RV

48

46

52.50

47.50

5.00

 

51.75

47.25

51.55

47.45

4.10

Dem Corp

31-Oct

1018

LV

48

47

51.75

48.25

3.50

 

51.00

48.00

51.10

47.90

3.20

FOX

31-Oct

1400

RV

48

45

53.25

46.75

6.50

 

52.50

46.50

51.05

47.95

3.10

Pew

30-Oct

2408

RV

46

45

52.75

47.25

5.50

 

52.00

47.00

50.75

48.25

2.50

ARG

30-Oct

1258

LV

49

48

51.25

48.75

2.50

 

50.50

48.50

49.85

49.15

0.70

Nwk

29-Oct

1005

RV

45

48

50.25

49.75

0.50

 

49.50

49.50

50.15

48.85

1.30

ICR

26-Oct

817

RV

44

46

51.50

48.50

3.00

 

50.75

48.25

na

na

na

LAT

24-Oct

1698

RV

48

47

51.75

48.25

3.50

 

51.00

48.00

na

na

na

Time

21-Oct

803

LV

46

51

48.25

51.75

(3.50)

 

47.50

51.50

na

na

na

AP

20-Oct

976

LV

49

46

52.75

47.25

5.50

 

52.00

47.00

na

na

na

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RCP Final 15 LV Polls

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Poll

 

 

 

2-party

 

 

 

Projected

 

5-poll MA

 

 

Date

Kerry

Bush

Other

Spread

Kerry

Bush

Diff

 

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Average

10/22-11/01

47.0%

49.0%

0.9%

2.0%

49.0%

51.0%

2.1%

 

49.3%

49.8%

49.5%

49.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ICR (741)

10/22 - 10/26

45%

48%

2%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

 

48.8%

49.3%

48.6%

50.0%

GW/Battleground (1000)

10/25 - 10/28

46%

51%

0%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

5.2%

 

48.3%

51.8%

48.9%

50.1%

Newsweek (882)

10/27 - 10/29

44%

50%

1%

6%

46.8%

53.2%

6.4%

 

47.8%

51.3%

48.5%

50.5%

Pew Research (1925)

10/27 - 10/30

48%

51%

1%

3%

48.5%

51.5%

3.0%

 

48.0%

51.0%

48.1%

51.0%

CBS/NY Times (643)

10/28 - 10/30

46%

49%

1%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

 

49.0%

50.0%

48.4%

50.7%

ARG (1258)

10/28 - 10/30

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

50.3%

48.8%

48.7%

50.6%

ABC/Wash Post (2904)**

10/28 - 10/31

48%

49%

0%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.0%

 

50.3%

49.8%

49.1%

50.2%

NBC/WSJ (1014)

10/29 - 10/31

47%

48%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.1%

 

50.0%

49.0%

49.5%

49.7%

CNN/USA/Gallup(1573)*

10/29 - 10/31

49%

49%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

49.8%

49.3%

49.9%

49.4%

Reuters/Zogby (1208)

10/29 - 10/31

47%

48%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.1%

 

50.0%

49.0%

50.1%

49.2%

FOX News (1200)

10/30 - 10/31

48%

46%

1%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

-2.1%

 

51.8%

47.3%

50.4%

48.9%

Harris (1509(

10/29 - 11/1

48%

49%

2%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.0%

 

48.8%

49.3%

50.1%

48.8%

CBS News (939)

10/29 - 11/1

47%

49%

1%

2%

49.0%

51.0%

2.1%

 

49.3%

49.8%

49.9%

48.9%

TIPP (1041 LV

10/30 - 11/1

48%

50%

1%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

2.1%

 

48.6%

50.3%

49.7%

49.1%

GW/Battleground (1000)

10/31 - 11/1

46%

50%

0%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

4.2%

 

49.0%

51.0%

49.5%

49.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RCP Monthy Average

 

Poll

 

 

 

2-party

 

 

 

Projected

 

5-poll MA

 

 

Date

Kerry

Bush

Other

Spread

Kerry

Bush

Diff

 

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

 

Average

45.9%

47.3%

2.1%

1.4%

49.3%

50.7%

0.7%

 

49.4%

48.5%

49.6%

48.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

July

46.1%

44.1%

3.4%

-2.0%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

 

50.9%

45.7%

50.9%

45.7%

 

Aug

46.4%

45.3%

2.8%

-1.1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.3%

 

50.6%

46.6%

50.7%

46.5%

 

Sep

43.4%

49.2%

2.0%

5.8%

46.9%

53.1%

-4.6%

 

47.5%

50.5%

47.6%

50.3%

 

Oct

46.2%

48.4%

1.4%

2.2%

48.8%

51.2%

2.4%

 

49.2%

49.4%

49.1%

49.6%

 

Nov

47.3%

49.5%

1.0%

2.3%

48.8%

51.2%

2.4%

 

48.9%

50.1%

49.8%

49.1%

 

NBC News (504 RV)

7/6

49%

41%

4%

-8%

54.4%

45.6%

8.9%

RV

53.5%

42.5%

53.5%

42.5%

AP/Ipsos (804 RV)

7/5-7/7

45%

49%

3%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

-4.3%

RV

47.3%

49.8%

50.4%

46.1%

Zogby (1008 LV)

7/6-7/7

47%

45%

2%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

LV

51.5%

46.5%

50.8%

46.3%

Time (774 LV)

7/6-7/8

47%

45%

4%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

LV

50.0%

46.0%

50.6%

46.2%

Newsweek (1,001 RV)

7/8-7/9

47%

44%

3%

-3%

51.6%

48.4%

3.3%

RV

51.5%

45.5%

50.8%

46.1%

IBD/TIPP (800 RV)

7/6-7/10

47%

43%

4%

-4%

52.2%

47.8%

4.4%

RV

51.5%

44.5%

50.4%

46.5%

CNN/Gallup/USAT (706 LV)

7/8-7/11

50%

45%

2%

-5%

52.6%

47.4%

5.3%

LV

52.3%

45.8%

51.4%

45.7%

Wash Post/ABC (721 RV)

7/8-7/11

46%

46%

4%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

RV

49.0%

47.0%

50.9%

45.8%

Dem Corps** (1,010 LV)

7/10-7/13

48%

45%

4%

-3%

51.6%

48.4%

3.2%

LV

50.3%

45.8%

50.9%

45.7%

CBS/NYT (823 RV)

7/11-7/15

45%

42%

5%

-3%

51.7%

48.3%

3.4%

RV

51.0%

44.0%

50.8%

45.4%

Marist (938 RV)

7/12-7/15

45%

44%

2%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

RV

51.8%

46.3%

50.9%

45.8%

IBD/TIPP (842 RV)

7/12-7/17

42%

40%

4%

-2%

51.2%

48.8%

2.4%

RV

52.5%

43.5%

50.9%

45.3%

Pew (1,568 RV)

7/8-7/18

46%

44%

3%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

RV

51.3%

45.8%

51.4%

45.1%

LA Times (1,529 RV)

7/17-7/21

46%

44%

3%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

RV

51.3%

45.8%

51.6%

45.1%

CNN/Gallup/USAT (709 LV)

7/19-7/21

47%

46%

4%

-1%

50.5%

49.5%

1.1%

LV

49.3%

46.8%

51.2%

45.6%

NBC/WSJ (813 RV)

7/19-7/21

45%

47%

2%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

RV

49.5%

48.5%

50.8%

46.1%

Fox News (767 LV)

7/20-7/21

44%

43%

3%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

LV

51.5%

45.5%

50.6%

46.5%

Quinnipiac Univ. (1551 RV)

7/18-7/22

44%

43%

4%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

RV

50.8%

45.3%

50.5%

46.4%

Time/SRBI (1000 RV)

7/20-7/22

46%

43%

5%

-3%

51.7%

48.3%

3.4%

RV

50.5%

44.5%

50.3%

46.1%

IBD/TIPP (883 RV)

7/19-7/24

44%

42%

3%

-2%

51.2%

48.8%

2.3%

RV

52.3%

44.8%

50.9%

45.7%

ABC News/WP (909 RV)

7/22-7/25

46%

48%

3%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.1%

RV

48.3%

48.8%

50.7%

45.8%

Newsweek (1,010 RV)

7/29-7/30

49%

42%

3%

-7%

53.8%

46.2%

7.7%

RV

53.5%

43.5%

51.1%

45.4%

ARG (776 RV)

7/30-8/1

49%

45%

2%

-4%

52.1%

47.9%

4.3%

RV

52.0%

46.0%

51.3%

45.5%

ABC News/WP (LV)

7/30-8/1

49%

47%

2%

-2%

51.0%

49.0%

2.1%

LV

50.5%

47.5%

51.3%

46.1%

CNN/Gallup/USAT (LV)

7/30-8/1

45%

51%

2%

6%

46.9%

53.1%

-6.3%

LV

46.5%

51.5%

50.2%

47.5%

CBS News (991 RV)

7/31-8/1

48%

43%

3%

-5%

52.7%

47.3%

5.5%

RV

52.5%

44.5%

51.0%

46.6%

Marist (573 LV)

7/30-8/2

47%

47%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.8%

48.3%

50.5%

47.6%

Fox News (775 LV)

8/3 - 8/4

47%

43%

2%

-4%

52.2%

47.8%

4.4%

LV

53.0%

45.0%

50.7%

47.4%

IBD/TIPP (841 RV)

8/2 - 8/5

45%

42%

5%

-3%

51.7%

48.3%

3.4%

RV

51.0%

44.0%

50.8%

46.7%

Dem Corps**** (1,013 LV)

8/2 - 8/5

49%

44%

4%

-5%

52.7%

47.3%

5.4%

LV

51.3%

44.8%

51.7%

45.3%

AP/Ipsos (798 RV)

8/3 - 8/5

48%

45%

3%

-3%

51.6%

48.4%

3.2%

RV

51.0%

46.0%

51.4%

45.6%

Time/SRBI (758 LV)

8/3 - 8/5

48%

43%

4%

-5%

52.7%

47.3%

5.5%

LV

51.8%

44.3%

51.6%

44.8%

Pew (1,166 RV)

8/5 - 8/10

47%

45%

2%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

RV

51.5%

46.5%

51.3%

45.1%

Gallup (729 LV)

8/9 - 8/11

46%

48%

3%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.1%

LV

48.3%

48.8%

50.8%

46.1%

Zogby (1,011 LV)

8/12 - 8/14

47%

43%

2%

-4%

52.2%

47.8%

4.4%

LV

53.0%

45.0%

51.1%

46.1%

Harris ( LV from 1012 adults)

8/10 - 8/15

47%

47%

3%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

49.3%

47.8%

50.8%

46.5%

CBS News (835 RV)

8/15 - 8/18

46%

45%

1%

-1%

50.5%

49.5%

1.1%

RV

52.0%

47.0%

50.8%

47.0%

Battleground Poll (1,000 LV)

8/15 - 8/17

44%

43%

1%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

LV

53.0%

46.0%

51.1%

46.9%

IBD/TIPP (884 RV)

8/17 - 8/23

43%

43%

5%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

RV

49.8%

45.3%

51.4%

46.2%

LA Times (1,352 RV)

8/21 - 8/24

44%

47%

3%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

-3.3%

RV

48.5%

48.5%

50.5%

46.9%

NPR - POS/GQR (800 LV)

8/21 - 8/24

47%

43%

3%

-4%

52.2%

47.8%

4.4%

LV

52.3%

44.8%

51.1%

46.3%

NBC News/WSJ (806 RV)

8/23 - 8/25

45%

47%

3%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

RV

48.8%

48.3%

50.5%

46.6%

CNN/USAT/Gallup (709 LV)

8/23 - 8/25

46%

48%

4%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.1%

LV

47.5%

48.5%

49.4%

47.1%

FOX News (1,000 LV)

8/24 - 8/25

44%

43%

3%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

LV

51.5%

45.5%

49.7%

47.1%

Time (835 LV)

8/24 - 8/26

44%

46%

5%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

LV

47.8%

47.3%

49.6%

46.9%

ABC News/WP (775 LV)

8/26 - 8/29

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.3%

48.8%

49.2%

47.7%

ARG (800 LV)

8/30 - 9/1

47%

47%

3%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

49.3%

47.8%

49.3%

47.6%

Zogby (1001 LV)

8/30 - 9/2

43%

46%

3%

3%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

LV

49.0%

48.0%

49.6%

47.5%

Time (926 LV)

8/31 - 9/2

41%

52%

3%

11%

44.1%

55.9%

-11.8%

LV

44.0%

53.0%

48.1%

49.0%

Newsweek (1,008 RV)

9/2 - 9/3

41%

52%

3%

11%

44.1%

55.9%

-11.8%

RV

44.0%

53.0%

47.3%

50.1%

CNN/USAT/Gallup (778 LV)

9/3 - 9/5

45%

52%

1%

7%

46.4%

53.6%

-7.2%

LV

46.5%

52.5%

46.6%

50.9%

CBS News (909 RV)

9/6 - 9/8

42%

49%

1%

7%

46.2%

53.8%

-7.7%

RV

48.0%

51.0%

46.3%

51.5%

Pew Research (745 LV)

9/8 - 9/10

38%

54%

2%

16%

41.3%

58.7%

-17.4%

LV

42.5%

55.5%

45.0%

53.0%

ABC News/Wash Post (LV)

9/6 - 9/8

43%

52%

2%

9%

45.3%

54.7%

-9.5%

LV

45.3%

52.8%

45.3%

53.0%

FOX/Opin. Dyn. (1000 LV)

9/7 - 9/8

43%

47%

3%

4%

47.8%

52.2%

-4.4%

LV

48.3%

48.8%

46.1%

52.1%

AP/Ipsos (899 LV)

9/7 - 9/9

46%

51%

1%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.2%

LV

47.5%

51.5%

46.3%

51.9%

Time (857 LV)

9/7 - 9/9

41%

52%

3%

11%

44.1%

55.9%

-11.8%

LV

44.0%

53.0%

45.5%

52.3%

Zogby (1018 LV)

9/8 - 9/9

42%

46%

2%

4%

47.7%

52.3%

-4.5%

LV

49.5%

48.5%

46.9%

50.9%

IBD/TIPP (674 LV)

9/7 - 9/12

46%

46%

3%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

49.8%

47.3%

47.8%

49.8%

Newsweek (1003 RV)

9/9 - 9/10

43%

49%

2%

6%

46.7%

53.3%

-6.5%

RV

47.5%

50.5%

47.7%

50.2%

Harris (867 LV)

9/9 - 9/13

48%

47%

2%

-1%

50.5%

49.5%

1.1%

LV

50.3%

47.8%

48.2%

49.4%

Pew Research (725 LV)

9/11 - 9/14

46%

47%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

LV

50.5%

48.5%

49.5%

48.5%

Battleground (1000 LV)

9/12 - 9/15

45%

49%

1%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

-4.3%

LV

48.8%

50.3%

49.4%

48.9%

CNN/USAT/Gallup (767 LV)

9/13 - 9/15

40%

54%

3%

14%

42.6%

57.4%

-14.9%

LV

42.3%

54.8%

47.9%

50.4%

CBS News (1048 RV)

9/12 - 9/16

41%

50%

3%

9%

45.1%

54.9%

-9.9%

RV

45.5%

51.5%

47.5%

50.6%

ARG (LV)

9/7 - 9/21

46%

47%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

LV

50.5%

48.5%

47.5%

50.7%

IBD/TIPP (650 LV)

9/14 - 9/18

42%

45%

2%

3%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

LV

50.3%

47.8%

47.5%

50.6%

Zogby (1066 LV)

9/17 - 9/19

43%

46%

1%

3%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

LV

50.5%

48.5%

47.8%

50.2%

NBC News/WSJ (787 LV)

9/17 - 9/19

46%

50%

1%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

-4.2%

LV

48.3%

50.8%

49.0%

49.4%

Pew Research (989 RV)

9/17 - 9/21

42%

45%

3%

3%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

RV

49.5%

47.5%

49.8%

48.6%

AP/Ipsos (931 LV)

9/20 - 9/22

45%

52%

1%

7%

46.4%

53.6%

-7.2%

LV

46.5%

52.5%

49.0%

49.4%

CBS News (931 LV)

9/20 - 9/22

42%

51%

2%

9%

45.2%

54.8%

-9.7%

LV

45.8%

52.3%

48.1%

50.3%

Marist (630 LV)

9/20 - 9/22

44%

50%

2%

6%

46.8%

53.2%

-6.4%

LV

47.0%

51.0%

47.4%

50.8%

Battleground (1000 LV)

9/20 - 9/23

45%

50%

0%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.3%

LV

48.8%

51.3%

47.5%

50.9%

FOX News (1000 LV)

9/21 - 9/22

42%

46%

1%

4%

47.7%

52.3%

-4.5%

LV

50.3%

48.8%

47.7%

51.2%

Time (877 LV)

9/21 - 9/23

42%

48%

5%

6%

46.7%

53.3%

-6.7%

LV

45.8%

49.3%

47.5%

50.5%

Pew Research (948 RV)

9/22 - 9/26

40%

48%

2%

8%

45.5%

54.5%

-9.1%

RV

47.5%

50.5%

47.9%

50.2%

ABC News/WP (810 LV)

9/23 - 9/26

45%

51%

1%

6%

46.9%

53.1%

6.3%

LV

47.3%

51.8%

47.9%

50.3%

IBD/TIPP (649 LV)

9/22 - 9/27

45%

45%

2%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

51.0%

47.0%

48.4%

49.5%

CNN/USAT/Gallup (758 LV)

9/24 - 9/26

44%

52%

3%

8%

45.8%

54.2%

8.3%

LV

44.8%

52.3%

47.3%

50.2%

LA Times (1100 LV)

9/25 - 9/28

45%

51%

2%

6%

46.9%

53.1%

6.3%

LV

46.5%

51.5%

47.4%

50.6%

Battleground (1000 LV)

9/27 - 9/30

44%

51%

1%

7%

46.3%

53.7%

7.4%

LV

47.0%

52.0%

47.3%

50.9%

SHU Poll Inst. (1003 LV)

9/27 - 10/2

43%

48%

2%

5%

47.3%

52.7%

5.5%

LV

48.3%

49.8%

47.5%

50.5%

Newsweek (1013 RV)

9/30 - 10/2

47%

45%

2%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

-2.2%

LV

51.5%

46.5%

47.6%

50.4%

CNN/USAT/Gallup (772 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

49%

49%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

49.8%

49.3%

48.6%

49.8%

Pew Research (801 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

44%

49%

2%

5%

47.3%

52.7%

5.4%

LV

47.8%

50.3%

48.9%

49.6%

Zogby (1036 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

43%

46%

2%

3%

48.3%

51.7%

3.4%

LV

49.8%

48.3%

49.4%

48.8%

CBS News/NYT (561 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

47%

47%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.8%

48.3%

49.9%

48.5%

ABC News/WP (1169 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

46%

51%

1%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

5.2%

LV

47.5%

51.5%

49.1%

49.5%

ARG (800 LV)

10/2 - 10/4

46%

46%

2%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.5%

47.5%

49.3%

49.2%

ICR (762 LV)

10/1 - 10/5

45%

51%

2%

6%

46.9%

53.1%

6.3%

LV

46.5%

51.5%

49.0%

49.4%

Fox News (1000 LV)

10/3 - 10/4

45%

47%

1%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

2.2%

LV

50.3%

48.8%

49.1%

49.5%

Marist (642 LV)

10/4 - 10/5

46%

49%

1%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

LV

49.0%

50.0%

48.8%

49.9%

AP/Ipsos (944 LV)

10/4 - 10/6

50%

46%

2%

-4%

52.1%

47.9%

-4.2%

LV

51.5%

46.5%

49.6%

48.9%

GW/Battleground (1250 LV)

10/3 - 10/7

46%

49%

0%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

LV

49.8%

50.3%

49.4%

49.4%

Time (886 LV w/leaners)

10/6 - 10/7

45%

46%

4%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.1%

LV

48.8%

47.3%

49.9%

48.6%

CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV)

10/9 - 10/10

49%

48%

1%

-1%

50.5%

49.5%

-1.0%

LV

50.5%

48.5%

49.9%

48.5%

ICR (763 LV)

10/9 - 10/11

43%

48%

2%

5%

47.3%

52.7%

5.5%

LV

48.3%

49.8%

49.8%

48.5%

CBS News (760 LV)

10/9 - 10/11

45%

48%

2%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

LV

48.8%

49.3%

49.2%

49.0%

Zogby (1223 LV)

10/9 - 10/11

45%

45%

2%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

51.0%

47.0%

49.5%

48.4%

ABC/Wash Post* (1248 LV)

10/11 - 10/13

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.3%

48.8%

49.8%

48.7%

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/11 - 10/14

46%

49%

0%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

LV

49.8%

50.3%

49.6%

49.0%

Newsweek (880 LV)

10/14 - 10/15

44%

50%

1%

6%

46.8%

53.2%

6.4%

LV

47.8%

51.3%

49.5%

49.3%

Time (865 LV w/leaners)

10/14 - 10/15

47%

48%

3%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.1%

LV

48.5%

48.5%

49.5%

49.2%

CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV)

10/14 - 10/16

44%

52%

1%

8%

45.8%

54.2%

8.3%

LV

46.3%

52.8%

48.5%

50.3%

CBS/NY Times (678 LV)

10/14 - 10/17

45%

47%

2%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

2.2%

LV

49.5%

48.5%

48.4%

50.3%

Harris (820 LV)***

10/14 - 10/17

44%

50%

1%

6%

47.1%

52.9%

5.9%

LV

48.1%

50.9%

48.0%

50.4%

NBC/WSJ (LV w/leaners)

10/16 - 10/18

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.3%

48.8%

48.5%

49.9%

ABC/Wash Post* (1237 LV)

10/16 - 10/18

46%

51%

1%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

5.2%

LV

47.5%

51.5%

48.3%

50.5%

Pew Research (1070 LV)

10/15 - 10/19

47%

47%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.8%

48.3%

49.2%

49.6%

FOX News (1000 LV)

10/17 - 10/18

42%

49%

2%

7%

46.2%

53.8%

7.7%

LV

47.3%

50.8%

48.8%

50.0%

Marist (772 LV w/leaners)

10/17 - 10/19

48%

49%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.0%

LV

49.5%

49.5%

49.1%

49.8%

AP-Ipsos (976 LV)

10/18 - 10/20

49%

46%

2%

-3%

51.6%

48.4%

-3.2%

LV

51.3%

46.8%

49.3%

49.4%

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/18 - 10/21

45%

49%

1%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

4.3%

LV

48.8%

50.3%

49.5%

49.1%

Time (803 LV)

10/19 - 10/21

46%

51%

2%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

5.2%

LV

46.8%

51.3%

48.7%

49.7%

Newsweek (880 LV)

10/21 - 10/22

46%

48%

1%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

2.1%

LV

49.8%

49.3%

49.2%

49.4%

Los Angeles Times (881 LV)

10/21 - 10/24

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.3%

48.8%

49.4%

49.3%

CNN/USAT/Gallup (1195 LV)

10/22 - 10/24

46%

51%

1%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

5.2%

LV

47.5%

51.5%

48.6%

50.2%

ICR (741 LV)

10/22 - 10/26

45%

48%

2%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

LV

48.75%

49.25%

48.60%

50.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/25 - 10/28

46%

51%

0%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

5.2%

LV

48.25%

51.75%

48.90%

50.10%

Newsweek (882 LV)

10/27 - 10/29

44%

50%

1%

6%

46.8%

53.2%

6.4%

LV

47.75%

51.25%

48.50%

50.50%

Pew Research (1925 LV)

10/27 - 10/30

48%

51%

1%

3%

48.5%

51.5%

3.0%

LV

48.00%

51.00%

48.05%

50.95%

CBS/NY Times (643 LV)

10/28 - 10/30

46%

49%

1%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

LV

49.00%

50.00%

48.35%

50.65%

ARG (1258 LV)

10/28 - 10/30

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.25%

48.75%

48.65%

50.55%

ABC/Wash Post (2904 LV)**

10/28 - 10/31

48%

49%

0%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.0%

LV

50.25%

49.75%

49.05%

50.15%

NBC/WSJ (1014 LV)

10/29 - 10/31

47%

48%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.1%

LV

50.00%

49.00%

49.50%

49.70%

CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)*

10/29 - 10/31

49%

49%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

49.75%

49.25%

49.85%

49.35%

Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV)

10/29 - 10/31

47%

48%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.1%

LV

50.00%

49.00%

50.05%

49.15%

FOX News (1200 LV)

10/30 - 10/31

48%

46%

1%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

-2.1%

LV

51.75%

47.25%

50.35%

48.85%

Harris (1509 LV)

10/29 - 11/1

48%

49%

2%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.0%

LV

48.75%

49.25%

50.05%

48.75%

CBS News (939 LV)

10/29 - 11/1

47%

49%

1%

2%

49.0%

51.0%

2.1%

LV

49.25%

49.75%

49.90%

48.90%

TIPP (1041 LV)

10/30 - 11/1

48%

50%

1%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

2.1%

LV

48.60%

50.30%

49.67%

49.11%

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/31 - 11/1

46%

50%

0%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

4.2%

LV

49.00%

51.00%

49.47%

49.51%

 

 

RCP - 102 LV POLLS

 

 

 

 

2-party

 

 

 

Projected

 

5-Poll MA

 

 

Date

Kerry

Bush

Other

Spread

Kerry

Bush

Diff

 

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

AVERAGE

7/6 - 9/26

45.62%

48.07%

1.80%

2.46%

48.70%

51.30%

-2.61%

 

48.99%

49.20%

49.04%

49.12%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zogby (1008 LV)

7/6-7/7

47%