2008 Election Model

A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation

 

Updated: Nov. 3, 2008

 

TruthIsAll

 

FINAL PROJECTION:

Obama wins by 76-64m votes; 367-171 EV (median); 365.3 expected; 53-45% vote share

 

The Election Model (EM) assumes as a base case that a fraud-free election is held today – and that current polls reflect the true vote. The model projects that Obama will win the Electoral vote by 367-171 and the True Vote by 76-64m.  The final projected vote share is Obama 53.1- McCain 44.9%- Other 2.0%. The state poll aggregate vote share matched the national average tracking poll to within 0.2%.

 

The model projects that Obama will carry 30 states + DC:

CA CO CT DE FL HI IL IA ME MD / MA MI MN MO MT NV NH NJ NM NY / NC ND OH OR PA RI VT VA WA WI

 

In May, the 2008 Election Calculator (EC) projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 71-59m (54.1-44.7%).   

 

For the 2008 EC to match the EM, its estimate of returning 60.5m returning Kerry and 51.6m Bush voters had to be accurate.

The EC used 12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares to calculate the projections.

In other words, the 2008 EC and EM confirmed that Kerry won a landslide (see below).

 

These graphs display the trend from May 29-Nov. 3: Electoral vote and projected vote share trend and State vs. National vote share projection trend. 

 

The average of recent state polls is entered in the database. The EM assumes that 60% of the undecided voters will break to Obama (base case). The undecided vote allocation (UVA) is based on the assumption that Obama is the challenger and McCain is running for Bush’s third term (GWB is not the most popular of incumbents). The EM base case allocates a conservative 60% of the undecided vote to Obama; most pollsters typically use 70-90%, depending on the incumbent’s approval rating. Bush is at 22% and McCain 45%.

 

The model projects five vote share scenarios of undecided voter allocations (UVA) ranging from 40-90%. Obama won the base case scenario with an average 365.8 EV. The median and mode were 367. Even in the worst-case 40% UVA scenario Obama won all 5000 election trials.

 

The Monte Carlo mean EV (365.8) matched the theoretical expected EV (365.3), illustrating the Law of Large Numbers (LLN): 5000 simulated election trials were required for the MEAN EV to CONVERGE to the THEORETICAL EV (the simulation is in the “long run”).  It is computational overkill to perform a meta analysis requiring the calculation of millions of EV combination scenarios in order to calculate the win probabilities.

 

Obama exceeded 360 EV in 3333 of 5000 Monte Carlo election trial simulations, so he has a 66.7% probability of winning at least 360 EV. The Monte Carlo simulation is displayed in this Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency chart. Note that ALL 5000 election trials are to the right of the 270 mark; therefore Obama’s win probability is 100%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 Election Model

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Final Monte Carlo Simulation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TruthIsAll

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Updated:

11/3/08

10:13 AM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assumptions:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

143.0

Votes cast

138.7

Recorded

(in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.0%

Uncounted

4.3

75%

 to Obama

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.0%

3rd party

2.9

Nader, Barr, McKinney et al

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

60%

Undecided Voters (UVA) allocated to Obama

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National Model

 

Obama

McCain

  Other

Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tracking Poll Avg (%)

51.1

43.9

5.0

7.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected True Vote %

52.9

45.1

2.0

7.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected True Vote (mil)

75.7

64.4

2.9

11.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Proj. Recorded Vote %

52.3

45.7

2.1

6.6

(True Vote less Uncounted)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Proj. Recorded Vote (mil)

72.5

63.4

2.9

9.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Proj. 2-party True Vote %

54.1

45.9

0.0

8.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

State Model

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aggregate Poll Avg (%)

51.3

43.8

4.9

7.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected True Vote %

53.1

44.9

2.0

8.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected True Vote (mil)

75.9

64.2

2.9

11.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Proj. Recorded Vote %

52.4

45.5

2.1

6.9

(True Vote less Uncounted)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Proj. Recorded Vote (mil)

72.7

63.2

2.9

9.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Proj. 2-party True Vote %

54.3

45.7

0.0

8.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electoral Vote Snapshot

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Poll Leader

 

367

171

Before UVA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Leader

370

168

After UVA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expected EV

 

365.29

172.71

EV = ∑ (Win probability (i) * EV(i)),  i=1,51 states

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation (5000 election trials)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mean

 

 

365.81

172.19

Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median

 

367

171

Middle value

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mode

 

 

367

171

Most likely

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maximum

 

414

124

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Minimum

 

294

244

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama Electoral Vote Win Probabilities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electoral Vote

 

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

420

 

 

Trial Wins > EV

 

4969

4832

4668

4218

3333

2270

1072

380

50

3

0

 

 

Change in Trial Wins

31

137

164

450

885

1063

1198

692

330

47

3

 

 

Prob. Trial Wins > EV

99.38%

96.64%

93.4%

84.4%

66.7%

45.4%

21.4%

7.6%

1.00%

0.06%

0.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

STATE POLL MODEL

 

NATIONAL POLL MODEL

ELECTORAL VOTE

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wtd Avg

2-Party

2-Party

Actual

Moving

2-Party

2-Party

Actual

Expected

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Polls

Current

Proj

Proj

Average

Current

Proj

Proj

Value

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/3/08

 

 

60% UVA

 

 

 

60% UVA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Obama

51.3

54.0

54.28

53.08

51.1

53.8

54.14

52.94

365.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 McCain

43.8

46.0

45.7

44.9

43.9

46.2

45.9

45.1

172.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/01/04

 

 

75% UVA

 

 

 

75% UVA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Kerry

47.9

50.5

51.8

51.1

47.8

50.6

51.8

51.3

337

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Bush

46.9

49.5

48.2

47.9

46.6

49.4

48.2

47.8

201

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Impact of Uncounted and Switched Votes on Obama 2-party Aggregate Vote Share and Expected EV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uncounted

 

1%

 

 

2%

 

 

3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Switched

 

Vote

EV

 

Vote

EV

 

Vote

EV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.0%

 

52.0

311

 

51.8

305

 

51.6

319

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8.0%

 

49.8

276

 

49.6

272

 

49.4

266

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10.0%

 

48.7

251

 

48.5

247

 

48.3

242

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Impact of Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA) on Obama  2-party Aggegate Vote Share and Expected EV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

Base case

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 UVA

40%

 

54.0%

 

60%

 

75%

 

90%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected 2-Party Vote Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Obama

53.3

 

54.0

 

54.3

 

55.0

 

55.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 McCain

46.7

 

46.0

 

45.7

 

45.0

 

44.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MoE

 Obama Popular Vote Win Probability (Normdist)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.0%

100.0

 

100.0

 

100.0

 

100.0

 

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.0%

99.9

 

100.0

 

100.0

 

100.0

 

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.0%

98.4

 

99.5

 

99.7

 

99.9

 

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama Electoral Vote: Monte Carlo Simulation (5000 election trials)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Mean

345.0

 

359.0

 

365.8

 

379.5

 

393.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Median 

347

 

362

 

367

 

381

 

396

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Mode

367

 

367

 

367

 

381

 

396

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Maximum

395

 

406

 

414

 

421

 

445

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Minimum

289

 

294

 

294

 

317

 

333

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electoral Vote Win Probability

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Trial Wins

5000

 

5000

 

5000

 

5000

 

5000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Probability

100.0

 

100.0

 

100.0

 

100.0

 

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

95% EV Confidence Interval

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Upper

381

 

394

 

399

 

409

 

421

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Lower

309

 

324

 

333

 

350

 

367

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

States Won

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Obama

28

 

30

 

31

 

32

 

33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis II - Projected 2-party vote share and win probability

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote share

48.0

49.0

50.0

51.0

52.0

53.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MoE

 

 

Popular Vote Win Probability

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.0%

0.0

2.5

50.0

97.5

100.0

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.0%

2.5

16.4

50.0

83.6

97.5

99.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.0%

9.6

25.7

50.0

74.3

90.4

97.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National Model

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.47

State aggregate vs. National vote share correlation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Poll Average

 

 

7-Poll  Moving Average

 

Projected  Moving Average Vote (60% UVA)

 

Poll

Date

Sample

MoE

Obama

McCain

Other

Spread

Obama

McCain

Spread

WinPr

Obama

McCain

Spread

WinPr

 

Research2k

11/02

1100LV

2.95%

51

44

5

7

51.1

43.9

7.3

100.0

54.1

45.9

8.3

100.0

 

Gallup

11/02

2847RV

1.84%

52

41

7

11

51.1

43.7

7.4

100.0

54.2

45.8

8.5

100.0

 

Zogby

11/02

1201LV

2.83%

51

44

5

7

51.0

44.0

7.0

100.0

54.0

46.0

8.0

100.0

 

Hotline/FD

11/02

882LV

3.30%

50

45

5

5

50.7

43.7

7.0

99.8

54.1

45.9

8.1

100.0

 

Rasmussen

11/02

3000LV

1.79%

51

46

3

5

51.3

43.1

8.1

99.2

54.6

45.4

9.3

99.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ABC/WP

11/02

2446RV

1.98%

54

42

4

12

51.1

42.7

8.4

100.0

54.8

45.2

9.7

100.0

 

Battleground

10/30

1000LV

3.10%

49

45

6

4

50.1

43.0

7.1

96.6

54.3

45.7

8.5

99.1

 

NBC/WSJ

11/02

1011LV

3.08%

51

43

6

8

50.3

43.0

7.3

100.0

54.3

45.7

8.6

100.0

 

CNN

11/01

1017LV

3.07%

51

43

6

8

50.4

42.0

8.4

99.9

55.0

45.0

9.9

100.0

 

Pew

11/01

2587RV

1.93%

49

42

9

7

50.7

41.7

9.0

100.0

55.3

44.7

10.5

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CBS

10/31

1005LV

3.09%

54

41

5

13

51.1

41.3

9.9

99.9

55.7

44.3

11.4

100.0

 

Marist

10/29

543LV

4.21%

50

43

7

7

50.4

41.1

9.3

92.6

55.5

44.5

11.0

99.0

 

FOX News

10/29

924LV

3.22%

47

44

9

3

50.9

40.6

10.3

98.6

56.0

44.0

12.0

99.6

 

Ipsos

10/27

831LV

3.40%

50

45

5

5

51.3

40.3

11.0

100.0

56.3

43.7

12.7

100.0

 

Pew

10/26

1325RV

2.69%

52

36

12

16

51.6

39.9

11.7

100.0

56.7

43.3

13.4

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LV

50.45

43.91

5.64

6.55

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RV

51.75

40.25

8.00

11.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

50.80

42.93

6.27

7.87

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2-party

54.20

45.80

0.00

8.39

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

State Model

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Poll MoE

3.0%

 

LATEST STATE POLLS

 

 

 

 

2004 PROJECTIONS, EXIT POLLS, ACTUALS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry

 

 

Recorded Vote

Obama vs

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama

Obama

     KEY STATES

Proj.

Unadj.

Recd

Deviation from

Kerry

Flip (*)

 

 

 

Obama

McCain

Spread

2pty Proj.

 WinProb

    (within MoE)

Vote

EP

Vote

Proj.

Exit

2pty Proj.

States

 

Last Poll

Popular

51.34

43.77

7.57

54.28

100.0

      Allocation

51.02

51.98

48.27

2.75

3.71

2.76

12

 

Date

Electoral

367

171

196

370

365.3

Percent

Rank

337

337

252

85

85

33

128

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AL

10/28

9

36

61

(25)

37.8

0.0

 

 

41.3

41.8

36.8

4.4

5.0

(4.0)

AL

AK

10/30

3

40

58

(18)

41.2

0.0

 

 

39.0

40.2

35.5

3.5

4.7

1.7

AK

AZ

10/30

10

46

50

(4)

48.4

14.8

6.0

8

48.0

44.5

44.4

3.6

0.1

(0.1)

AZ

AR

10/31

6

44

51

(7)

47.0

2.5

1.4

12

49.8

45.2

44.5

5.2

0.6

(3.3)

AR

CA

10/31

55

60

36

24

62.4

100.0

 

 

55.0

60.1

54.3

0.7

5.8

6.9

CA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO

10/30

9

51

45

6

53.4

98.7

3.2

9

50.0

50.1

47.0

3.0

3.1

2.9

CO*

CT

10/22

7

56

35

21

61.4

100.0

 

 

55.8

62.3

54.3

1.4

8.0

5.2

CT

DC

9/13

3

90

9

81

90.6

100.0

 

 

85.5

90.6

89.2

(3.7)

1.4

4.6

DC

DE

10/28

3

63

33

30

65.4

100.0

 

 

57.0

61.3

53.3

3.7

8.0

7.9

DE

FL

11/2

27

49

47

2

51.4

82.0

22.7

1

51.5

51.0

47.1

4.4

3.9

(0.6)

FL*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GA

10/30

15

46

49

(3)

49.0

25.7

10.8

3

45.8

42.0

41.4

4.4

0.6

2.8

GA

HI

9/20

4

68

27

41

71.0

100.0

 

 

51.8

58.1

54.0

(2.3)

4.1

18.8

HI

ID

9/17

4

33

62

(29)

36.0

0.0

 

 

37.5

32.3

30.3

7.2

2.0

(2.0)

ID

IL

11/1

21

60

37

23

61.8

100.0

 

 

56.3

56.6

54.8

1.4

1.8

5.1

IL

IN

11/2

11

46

48

(2)

49.6

39.7

9.2

5

40.5

40.4

39.3

1.2

1.1

8.6

IN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IA

11/1

7

54

39

15

58.2

100.0

 

 

53.8

50.7

49.2

4.5

1.5

4.0

IA*

KS

10/28

6

39

56

(17)

42.0

0.0

 

 

38.5

37.2

36.6

1.9

0.5

3.0

KS

KY

11/1

8

41

55

(14)

43.4

0.0

 

 

42.0

39.9

39.7

2.3

0.2

0.9

KY

LA

10/29

9

40

50

(10)

46.0

0.4

 

 

48.3

43.5

42.2

6.0

1.3

(2.8)

LA

ME

11/1

4

56

43

13

56.6

100.0

 

 

57.5

55.6

53.6

3.9

2.0

(1.4)

ME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MD

9/20

10

57

38

19

60.0

100.0

 

 

55.5

59.6

55.9

(0.4)

3.7

4.0

MD

MA

10/28

12

55

37

18

59.8

100.0

 

 

70.0

65.8

61.9

8.1

3.9

(10.7)

MA

MI

11/1

17

53

38

15

58.4

100.0

 

 

53.5

54.4

51.2

2.3

3.2

4.4

MI

MN

11/2

10

53

43

10

55.4

100.0

 

 

54.3

55.7

51.1

3.2

4.6

0.7

MN

MS

10/29

6

42

53

(11)

45.0

0.1

 

 

46.5

49.4

39.8

6.3

9.3

(2.0)

MS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MO

11/2

11

47

46

1

51.2

78.3

10.6

4

49.3

49.0

46.1

3.1

2.9

1.5

MO*

MT

11/2

3

48

47

1

51.0

74.3

2.9

10

40.5

37.3

38.6

1.9

(1.3)

10.0

MT*

NE

9/30

5

37

56

(19)

41.2

0.0

 

 

36.5

37.0

32.7

3.8

4.4

4.2

NE

NV

11/2

5

51

44

7

54.0

99.6

1.2

13

49.8

52.8

47.9

1.9

5.0

3.8

NV*

NH

10/30

4

53

42

11

56.0

100.0

 

 

50.8

57.2

50.2

0.5

7.0

4.8

NH

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NJ

10/30

15

55

38

17

59.2

100.0

 

 

55.3

57.5

52.9

2.3

4.6

3.5

NJ

NM

10/31

5

53

45

8

54.2

99.7

0.6

14

49.8

53.0

49.0

0.7

4.0

4.0

NM*

NY

10/28

31

64

31

33

67.0

100.0

 

 

59.3

64.5

58.4

0.9

6.1

7.3

NY

NC

11/2

15

49

48

1

50.8

69.9

14.4

2

48.5

49.5

43.6

4.9

6.0

1.8

NC*

ND

10/29

3

46

47

(1)

50.2

55.2

2.9

10

41.8

34.6

35.5

6.3

(0.9)

8.0

ND*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OH

11/2

20

51

45

6

53.4

98.7

7.2

6

51.5

54.0

48.7

2.8

5.3

1.4

OH*

OK

10/29

7

34

63

(29)

35.8

0.0

 

 

35.5

33.8

34.4

1.1

(0.6)

(0.2)

OK

OR

10/30

7

56

39

17

59.0

100.0

 

 

53.8

53.0

51.3

2.4

1.7

4.8

OR

PA

11/2

21

52

43

9

55.0

99.9

 

 

53.0

55.1

50.9