2008 Election Model

A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation              

 

TruthIsAll

 

Updated: June 25

 

If the election was held today, the Election Model projects Obama would win an expected 360–178 EV.

The state projection model gives him 52.9% of the 2-party vote (polling data from electoral-vote.com).

The national model indicates he would win 55.1% (polling data from RCP).

 

New state polls show Obama is leading in Indiana (48 - 47) and pulling away in MI (48 - 39).
The LAT/Bloomberg national poll shows Obama with a 12-point lead.

 

These key battleground states are projected to flip to Obama:

CO, IA, MO, NM, OH, VA, NC, FL, GA, IN (new)

 

But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.

 

Approximately 3-4 million Obama votes will be uncounted  (70-80%).

There will likely be vote-switching at the DREs and central tabulators.

 

These graphs display polling and model projection trends:

Aggregate state poll and projection trend

National 5-poll  moving average projection

Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

Battleground state polls

Electoral vote and win probability trend

Electoral vote and projected vote share trend

Undecided voter allocation and win probability

Battleground state win probability

Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 

The 2008 Election Calculator model determined that Obama will win a 71-59m landslide  (54 - 45%).

The model calculates the True Vote based on the following returning and new voter estimates:

2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes, 2004 voter turnout in 2008 and estimated vote shares.

The 2004 True Vote used the 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares applied to returning and new voters:

(2000 recorded vote + uncounted votes - voter deaths) * 2000 voter turnout + new 2004 voters.

 

The 2004 Election Model produced an amazing confirmation of the state and national models.

Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.

Both assumed that Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote.

The final national 5-poll projection average was 51.76%.

The final national 18-poll projection average was 51.63%.

 

Other Links:

2008 Election Model

Election Forecasting Methodology

2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) Polls

 

Confirmation of  A Kerry Landslide
Election Fraud Analytics and Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Excel Models available for download:

The Election Calculator: 1988-2004
2004 Interactive Simulation Model
A Polling Simulation Model
2000-2004 County Vote Database


 

 

 

 

2008 Election Model

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TruthIsAll

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Updated:

25-Jun-08

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last

State

National

State

National

Monte Carlo Simulation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Update

Poll

5-poll

2-party

2-party

Expected

Win

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6/25/2008

Aggregate

Average

Projection

Projection

EV

Prob

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama

46.3

49.0

52.9

55.1

360

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

McCain

42.8

40.8

47.1

44.9

178

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Undecided voter allocation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama election trials

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Win

4938

4992

4999

5000

5000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Probability

98.76

99.84

99.98

100.0

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected vote share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama

51.8

52.3

52.9

53.4

53.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

McCain

48.2

47.7

47.1

46.6

46.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electoral Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average

325

343

358

373

386

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median 

325

344

359

374

388

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maximum

399

411

419

438

456

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Minimum

236

256

262

293

302

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

95% Confidence Interval

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Upper

373

388

401

411

421

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lower

277

298

316

334

350

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

States Won

27

29

30

32

33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

State Model

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

State Polls before Undecided Voter Allocation

Obama

Win

Trial

Flip to

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EV

Obama

McCain

Diff

BO EV

 

Projection

Probability

EV

Obama

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

538

46.5

43.0

3.6

328

 

52.8

100.0

385

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AL

9

33

59

(26)

 

 

37.8

0.0

 

 

AL

 

 

 

 

 

AK

3

41

45

(4)

 

 

49.4

38.2

 

 

AK

 

 

 

 

 

AZ

10

28

38

(10)

 

 

48.4

21.2

 

 

AZ

 

 

 

 

 

AR

6

40

47

(7)

 

 

47.8

13.6

 

 

AR

 

 

 

 

 

CA

55

53

41

12

55

 

56.6

100.0

55

 

CA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO

9

43

41

2

9

 

52.6

90.3

9

Obama

CO

 

 

 

 

 

CT

7

47

44

3

7

 

52.4

88.5

7

 

CT

 

 

 

 

 

DC

3

90

9

81

3

 

90.6

100.0

3

 

DC

 

 

 

 

 

DE

3

50

41

9

3

 

55.4

99.7

3

 

DE

 

 

 

 

 

FL

27

45

45

0

 

 

51.0

69.1

27

Obama

FL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GA

15

43

44

(1)

 

 

50.8

65.5

15

Obama

GA

 

 

 

 

 

HI

4

61

31

30

4

 

65.8

100.0

4

 

HI

 

 

 

 

 

ID

4

39

52

(13)

 

 

44.4

0.3

 

 

ID

 

 

 

 

 

IL

21

60

31

29

21

 

65.4

100.0

21

 

IL

 

 

 

 

 

IN

11

48

47

1

11

 

51.0

69.1

11

Obama

IN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IA

7

47

42

5

7

 

53.6

96.4

7

Obama

IA

 

 

 

 

 

KS

6

37

47

(10)

 

 

46.6

4.5

 

 

KS

 

 

 

 

 

KY

8

41

53

(12)

 

 

44.6

0.3

 

 

KY

 

 

 

 

 

LA

9

41

50

(9)

 

 

46.4

3.6

 

 

LA

 

 

 

 

 

ME

4

55

33

22

4

 

62.2

100.0

4

 

ME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MD

10

52

39

13

10

 

57.4

100.0

10

 

MD

 

 

 

 

 

MA

12

53

30

23

12

 

63.2

100.0

12

 

MA

 

 

 

 

 

MI

17

48

39

9

17

 

55.8

99.8

17

 

MI

 

 

 

 

 

MN

10

50

43

7

10

 

54.2

98.2

10

 

MN

 

 

 

 

 

MS

6

44

50

(6)

 

 

47.6

11.5

 

 

MS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MO

11

43

42

1

11

 

52.0

84.1

11

Obama

MO

 

 

 

 

 

MT

3

39

47

(8)

 

 

47.4

9.7

 

 

MT

 

 

 

 

 

NE

5

36

52

(16)

 

 

43.2

0.0

 

 

NE

 

 

 

 

 

NV

5

42

45

(3)

 

 

49.8

46.0

 

 

NV

 

 

 

 

 

NH

4

51

39

12

4

 

57.0

100.0

4

 

NH

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NJ

15

47

39

8

15

 

55.4

99.7

15

 

NJ

 

 

 

 

 

NM

5

47

39

8

5

 

55.4

99.7

5

Obama

NM

 

 

 

 

 

NY

31

51

34

17

31

 

60.0

100.0

31

 

NY

 

 

 

 

 

NC

15

43

45

(2)

 

 

50.2

54.0

15

Obama

NC

 

 

 

 

 

ND

3

38

44

(6)

 

 

48.8

27.4

 

 

ND

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OH

20

46

43

3

20

 

52.6

90.3

20

Obama

OH

 

 

 

 

 

OK

7

38

52

(14)

 

 

44.0

0.1

 

 

OK

 

 

 

 

 

OR

7

48

45

3

7

 

52.2

86.4

7

 

OR

 

 

 

 

 

PA

21

46

42

4

21

 

53.2

94.5

21

 

PA

 

 

 

 

 

RI

4

53

38

15

4

 

58.4

100.0

4

 

RI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SC

8

39

48

(9)

 

 

46.8

5.5

 

 

SC

 

 

 

 

 

SD

3

34

51

(17)

 

 

43.0

0.0

 

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

TN

11

31

58

(27)

 

 

37.6

0.0

 

 

TN

 

 

 

 

 

TX

34

39

52

(13)

 

 

44.4

0.3

 

 

TX

 

 

 

 

 

UT

5

31

55

(24)

 

 

39.4

0.0

 

 

UT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VT

3

63

29

34

3

 

67.8

100.0

3

 

VT

 

 

 

 

 

VA

13

45

44

1

13

 

51.6

78.8

13

Obama

VA

 

 

 

 

 

WA

11

55

40

15

11

 

58.0

100.0

11

 

WA

 

 

 

 

 

WV

5

37

45

(8)

 

 

47.8

13.6

 

 

WV

 

 

 

 

 

WI

10

51

40

11

10

 

56.4

99.9

10

 

WI

 

 

 

 

 

WY

3

40

53

(13)

 

 

44.2

0.2

 

 

WY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National Model

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10-poll

Last Poll

Sample

 

 

 

5-poll moving avg

Projection moving avg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trend

Date

Size

Obama

McCain

Spread

Obama

McCain

Obama

McCain

Diff

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bloomberg

6/23

1115RV

49

37

12

49.0

40.8

55.1

44.9

10.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

6/23

3000 LV

49

44

5

48.2

41.6

54.3

45.7

8.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gallup

6/23

2587RV

46

43

3

48.0

41.8

54.1

45.9

8.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA Today

6/19

1310LV

50

44

6

48.2

41.6

54.3

45.7

8.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

Newsweek

6/18

896RV

51

36

15

48.0

41.8

54.1

45.9

8.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOX

6/18

900RV

45

41

4

46.6

42.6

53.1

46.9

6.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

6/18

3000 LV

48

45

3

47.0

42.8

53.1

46.9

6.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gallup

6/17

2605 RV

47

42

5

46.8

42.0

53.5

46.5

7.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

ABC/WP

6/15

--

49

45

4

46.2

42.0

53.3

46.7

6.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

COOK/RT

6/15

880 RV

44

40

4

45.0

41.0

53.4

46.6

6.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The 2004 Election Model: Final Projection Summary

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projection

Elec. Vote

2-party %

Win Prob

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry

337

51.8

99.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

201

48.2

0.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monte Carlo Simulation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

State EV Model

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Undecided%

Allocation

 

BaseCase

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Kerry

60%

67%

75%

80%

87%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trial  Wins

4901

4972

4995

4997

4999

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry

51.02

51.38

51.80

52.07

52.43

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

48.98

48.62

48.20

47.93

47.57

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Win Prob%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry

98.02

99.44

99.90

99.94

99.98

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

1.98

0.56

0.1

0.06

0.02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electoral Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average

320

328

337

343

352

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median 

322

329

338

345

353

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maximum

379

388

399

405

412

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Minimum

211

237

223

243

254

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

95% Conf. Interval

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Upper Limit

361

368

376

382

389

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lower Limit

278

288

298

305

315

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National 18-Polls

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote%

50.73

51.15

51.63

51.92

52.34

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prob%

97.6

99.9

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

States Won

26

27

27

28

30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 Pre-election State Polls, Projections and Exit Polls

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

State Model

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote share

Vote share

Final Poll

Final Poll

Projected

Exit Poll

EP-Vote

EP-Proj

Exit Poll

Kerry

Kerry

Proj-EP <

Proj-vote >

WPE>

 

State

EV

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Kerry

Diff

Diff

WPE

Proj EV

EP EV

2.0

2.0

6.0

 

Average

538

48.3

50.7

47.7

47.0

51.0

51.8

3.6

0.8

7.1

331

325

21

33

25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AL

9

36.8

62.5

39

57

41.3

42.5

5.7

1.2

11.3

 

 

yes

yes

yes

AL

AK

3

35.5

61.1

30

57

39.0

40.3

4.8

1.3

9.6

 

 

yes

yes

yes

AK

AZ

10

44.4

54.9

45

50

48.0

46.7

2.3

(1.3)

4.6

 

 

yes

yes

 

AZ

AR

6

44.5

54.3

46

48

49.8

44.8

0.3

(5.0)

0.5

6

 

 

yes

 

AR

CA

55

54.3

44.4

49

42

55.0

59.8

5.5

4.8

10.9

55

55

 

 

yes

CA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO

9

47.0

51.7

47

48

50.0

50.1

3.1

0.1

6.1

9

9

yes

yes

yes

CO

CT

7

54.3

43.9

52

42

55.8

62.2

7.9

6.4

15.7

7

7

 

 

yes

CT

DC

3

89.2

9.3

78

11

85.5

90.9

1.7

5.4

3.4

3

3

 

 

 

DC

DE

3

53.3

45.8

45

38

57.0

61.3

8.0

4.3

15.9

3

3

 

yes

yes

DE

FL

27

47.1

52.1

50

47

51.5

50.9

3.8

(0.6)

7.6

27

27

yes

yes

yes

FL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GA

15

41.4

58.0

42

52

45.8

42.5

1.1

(3.3)

2.2

 

 

 

yes

 

GA

HI

4

54.0

45.3

45

45

51.8

56.4

2.4

4.6

4.7

4

4

 

 

 

HI

ID

4

30.3

68.4

30

59

37.5

30.8

0.5

(6.7)

1.0

 

 

 

yes

 

ID

IL

21

54.8

44.5

54

42

56.3

57.0

2.2

0.8

4.4

21

21

yes

 

 

IL

IN

11

39.3

59.9

39

58

40.5

40.0

0.8

(0.5)

1.5

 

 

yes

 

 

IN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IA

7

49.2

49.9

50

44

53.8

50.7

1.5

(3.0)

3.0

7

7

 

yes

 

IA

KS

6

36.6

62.0

37

60

38.5

37.5

0.9

(1.0)

1.7

 

 

yes

 

 

KS

KY

8

39.7

59.6

39

56

42.0

39.6

(0.0)

(2.4)

(0.1)

 

 

 

yes

 

KY

LA

9

42.2

56.7

40

48

48.3

44.1

1.9

(4.1)

3.8

 

 

 

yes

 

LA

ME

4

53.6

44.6

50

39

57.5

55.5

1.9

(2.0)

3.8

4

4

 

yes

 

ME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MD

10

55.9

42.9

54

43

55.5

60.0

4.1

4.5

8.1

10

10

 

 

yes

MD

MA

12

61.9

36.8

64

27

70.0

64.8

2.9

(5.2)

5.8

12

12

 

yes

 

MA

MI

17

51.2

47.8

52

45

53.5

54.4

3.2

0.9

6.3

17

17

yes

yes

yes

MI

MN

10

51.1

47.6

52

44

54.3

55.7

4.7

1.5

9.3

10

10

yes

yes

yes

MN

MS

6

40.2

59.0

42

51

46.5

45.8

5.7

(0.7)

11.3

 

 

yes

yes

yes

MS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MO

11

46.1

53.3

44

49

48.5

49.0

2.9

0.5

5.8

 

 

yes

yes

 

MO

MT

3

38.6

59.1

36

57

40.5

37.7

(0.9)

(2.8)

(1.8)

 

 

 

 

 

MT

NE

5

32.7

65.9

32

61

36.5

36.7

4.1

0.2

8.1

 

 

yes

yes

yes

NE

NV

5

47.9

50.5

49

49

49.8

52.9

5.1

3.2

10.1

5

5

 

 

yes

NV

NH

4

50.2

48.9

47

47

50.8

57.0

6.8

6.3

13.6

4

4

 

 

yes

NH

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NJ

15

52.9

46.2

50

42

55.3

57.8

4.9

2.5

9.7

15

15

 

yes

yes

NJ

NM

5

49.0

49.8

49

49

49.8

52.9

3.9

3.2

7.8

5

5

 

 

yes

NM

NY

31

58.4

40.1

57

39

59.3

64.1

5.7

4.8

11.4

31

31

 

 

yes

NY

NC

15

43.6

56.0

47

50

48.5

49.2

5.7

0.7

11.3

 

 

yes

yes

yes

NC

ND

3

35.5

62.9

35

55

41.8

32.9

(2.6)

(8.9)

(5.2)

 

 

 

yes

 

ND

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OH

20

48.7

50.8

50

47

51.5

54.2

5.5

2.7

10.9

20

20

 

yes

yes

OH

OK

7

34.4

65.6

28

61

35.5

33.5

(1.0)

(2.0)

(1.9)

 

 

 

 

 

OK

OR

7

51.3

47.2

50

44

53.8

53.0

1.7

(0.8)

1.8

7

7

yes

yes

 

OR

PA

21

50.9

48.4

50

45

53.0

55.3

4.4

2.3

8.8

21

21

 

yes

yes

PA

RI

4

59.4

38.7

56

36

61.3

61.8

2.4

0.5

4.7

4

4

yes

 

 

RI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SC

8

40.9

58.0

42

55

43.5

45.9

5.0

2.4

10.0

 

 

 

yes

yes

SC

SD

3

38.4

59.9

42

52

45.8

36.3

(2.1)

(9.4)

(4.2)

 

 

 

yes

 

SD

TN

11

42.5

56.8

47

50

48.5

42.8

0.3

(5.7)

0.5

 

 

 

yes

 

TN

TX

34

38.2

61.1

37

59

39.3

40.6

2.4

1.4

4.8

 

 

yes

 

 

TX

UT

5

26.0

71.5

24

69

28.5

29.2

3.2

0.7

6.4

 

 

yes

yes

yes

UT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VT

3

58.9

38.8

53

40

57.5

66.4

7.5

8.9

15.0

3

3

 

 

yes

VT

VA

13

45.5

53.7

47

51

47.8

49.4

4.0

1.7

7.9

 

 

yes

yes

yes

VA

WA

11

52.8

45.6

52

44

54.3

57.0

4.2

2.8

8.4

11

11

 

 

yes

WA

WV

5

43.2

56.1

45

49

48.8

40.3

(2.9)

(8.5)

(5.8)

 

 

 

yes

 

WV

WI

10

49.7

49.3

51

44

54.0

52.0

2.4

(2.0)

4.7

10

10

yes

yes

 

WI

WY

3

29.1

68.9

29

65

32.8

31.2

2.2

(1.5)

4.3

 

 

yes

yes

 

WY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National Model

 

 

 

 

75% UVA

projection

5-poll moving average

2-pty moving average

 

 

 

 

 

Poll

Size

Poll

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Diff

 

 

 

 

Average

Date

1720

Type

47.3

46.9

50.9

48.1

51.3

47.8

51.8

48.2

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Harris

2-Nov

5508

LV

50

47

51.5

47.5

51.3

47.8

51.8

48.2

3.5