Unadjusted 2008 State Exit Polls: Further Confirmation of the True Vote Model

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

Sept. 22, 2011

 

The 2008 unadjusted state exit polls confirm the True Vote Model (TVM). The national aggregate (Table 1) exactly matched Obama’s 58.1% TVM share (Table 3). It indicates that Obama won a 23 million vote landslide, far exceeding his 9.5 million recorded vote margin. The TVM  uses Final 2008 NEP vote shares but with a feasible mix of returning Kerry and Bush voters reflecting Kerry's 7% True Vote margin. The basic results are not surprising: Obama did better in the aggregate state exit polls than the vote count (52.9%). But the Democrats always do better in the polls. What is surprising is that he did 5.2% better - exactly matching the TVM. By way of comparison, Kerry did 3.7% better in the unadjusted exit polls (52%) than in the recorded vote (48.3%). He had 53.6% in the TVM.

 

The National and State unadjusted exit polls, True Vote Models and Late Votes  confirm that the recorded vote understates Obama’s True share by 4-5%.

http://richardcharnin.com/2008NEPUnadjustedRoper_28080_image001.gif

                                                                                                                                                                                          

A Triple Confirmation

 

In the 2008 National Exit Poll (NEP), 4178 of the 17836 responders were asked how they voted in 2004: 1815 (43.4%) said they were Kerry voters, 1614 (38.6%) Bush, 188 (4.5%) third-party and 561 (13.4%) did not vote. Applying Final NEP vote shares to the returning voter mix, Obama had a 58.1%  share - exactly matching a) his 58.1% share of  the aggregate unadjusted state exit polls  and b) his 58.1% TVM share!  The returning voter mix implied that Kerry won by 50.2-44.6%.

 

But all exit polls are forced to match the recorded vote. The pollsters needed an impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry mix which implied that Bush won by 52.6-42.3%. His (bogus) recorded margin was 50.7-48.3%. Kerry won the True Vote with 53.6% (Table 6). In the Final 2008 NEP, pollsters effectively converted 269 of 1815 (15%) Kerry responders to Bush responders in order to force a match to the recorded vote.

 

To summarize, the unadjusted 2008 NEP exactly matched the weighted aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls, based on how the the exit poll responders said they voted in 2004 and 2008.  It also matched the TVM which used 2004 votes cast, voter mortality, a best estimate of living 2004 voter turnout in 2008 – and the Final 2008  NEP vote shares. Obama had 58.1% in each calculation – a triple confirmation that Obama won a 23 million vote landslide, far exceeding his 9.5 million recorded vote margin.

 

2004

 

Respondents

Unadjusted Nat Exit Poll

 

2004

 

Adjusted

 

Final National Exit Poll

Implied

 

Voted04

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

 

Implied

 

Voted 04

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

50.18%

Kerry

1815

43.44%

89%

9%

2%

 

42.28%

Kerry

1546

37%

89%

9%

2%

44.62%

Bush

1614

38.63%

17%

82%

1%

 

52.57%

Bush

1922

46%

17%

82%

1%

5.20%

Other

188

4.50%

70%

24%

6%

 

5.14%

Other

188

4%

70%

24%

6%

 

DNV

561

13.43%

72%

27%

1%

 

 

DNV

561

13%

72%

27%

1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

4178

100.0%

58.1%

40.3%

1.6%

 

 

Total

4178

100%

52.9%

45.5%

1.6%

 

 

 

131.3

76.2

52.9

2.2

 

 

 

 

131.3

69.5

59.9

1.9

                                                                                                                                                                                          

But that's not all. The National Exit Poll is a subset of 17836 respondents out of the 80,000 sampled in the state exit polls. Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 61-37%, a landslide of historic proportions. However, the state exit polls have a smaller margin of error and are probably a better estimate of the True Vote.

 

The key result is the state exit poll aggregate vote share. The national sample size was approximately 80,000. The average state exit poll margin of error was 3.35% (including a 30% “cluster” effect). The margin of error was exceeded in 37 states; in 2004 it was exceeded in 29.  Of the 50 states and DC, 45 shifted to McCain from the exit poll. The difference in margin between the exit poll and the recorded vote is the average Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD). The WPD was 10.6 in 2008, far above the 7.4 in 2004.

 

The True Vote Model has closely matched the unadjusted state and national exit polls in every presidential election since 1988. In the 11 presidential elections from 1968 to 2008, the Republicans had a 49-45% recorded vote margin while the Democrats had a 49-45% True Vote margin (Table 7).

 

In a given state, the exit poll varies from the corresponding True Vote calculation. But the total aggregate share is an exact match, illustrating the Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem.

 

The National True Vote Model is based on previous election votes cast and turnout of previous election voters, current votes cast and National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares. The State Model works the same way. It's based on returning state voters with NEP vote shares adjusted according to the state/national vote share ratio.

 

It should be obvious by now that final weighting adjustments made to the exit polls are made to match the recorded vote. In 2004, in addition to the impossible return voter mix , the 12:22am preliminary national exit poll vote shares had to be adjusted in the Final NEP. The required turnout of living Bush voters was 110% . Kerry had a 52.0% aggregate share and a 53.6% TVM share (Table 6).  Of course, all demographic categories had to be adjusted to match the vote count:  Final NEP “Party-ID”, “When Decided” and “Bush Approval” crosstab weights did not match the corresponding pre-election polls and were adjusted to force a match to the recorded vote.

 

Tables 1-6 display unadjusted 2004 and 2008 State exit polls, Final National Exit Poll and True Vote Model.

Table 7 displays the 1968-2008 True Vote and the associated returning voter mix.

Table 8 displays returning voter mix and turnout in the 1968-2008 Final National Exit Polls that were required to match the recorded vote.

 

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html

 

 

I-  2008 Recorded Vote vs. Unadjusted Exit Polls vs. True Vote

(True Vote method 3 uses the previous unadjusted exit poll as the basis for calculating returning voter turnout)

 

 

 

 

Recorded Vote

 

 

NEP Exit Poll

 

 

TVM

Method3

 

 

 

 

Cluster>

30%

 

 

 

Obama

McCain

Margin

EV

Obama

McCain

Margin

EV

Obama

McCain

Margin

EV

McCain

WPD

Sample

MoE

Exceed

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

79945

0.38%

MoE

Votes

131.308

69.46

59.92

9.52

365

76.2

52.8

23.4

426

74.2

55

19.3

452

99 EV

 

Average

Average

 

Share

EV

52.9%

45.6%

7.3%

 

58.1%

40.3%

17.8%

 

56.6%

41.9%

14.7%

 

8 states

10.6

1599

3.35%

37

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AL

9

38.7

60.3

(21.6)

 

52.0

47.0

5.0

9

48.5

50.5

(2.0)

 

 

26.6

1062

3.91

1

AK

3

37.9

59.4

(21.5)

 

49.1

47.5

1.6

3

48.3

49

(0.7)

 

 

23.1

1153

3.75

1

AZ

10

44.9

53.4

(8.5)

 

51.4

47.9

3.5

10

52.7

45.6

7.1

10

10

12.0

1225

3.64

1

AR *

6

38.9

58.7

(19.9)

 

50.2

47.4

2.8

6

50.2

47.4

2.8

6

6

22.7

na

 

 

CA

55

61

36.9

24.0

55

67.0

30.6

36.4

55

64.1

33.8

30.4

55

 

12.4

2253

2.52

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO

9

53.7

44.7

9.0

9

51.9

46.1

5.8

9

55.7

42.6

13.1

9

 

(3.2)

1229

3.63

 

CT

7

60.6

38.2

22.4

7

73.4

24.0

49.4

7

63.5

35.3

28.2

7

 

27.0

841

3.88

1

DE

3

61.9

36.9

25.0

3

68.6

30.9

37.7

3

64.1

34.7

29.4

3

 

12.7

767

4.27

1

DC

3

92.5

6.5

85.9

3

92.0

6.4

85.7

3

92.5

6.5

85.9

3

 

(0.2)

494

3.10

 

FL

27

50.9

48.1

2.8

27

52.1

46.1

6.0

27

55.1

44

11.1

27

 

3.2

3289

2.22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GA

15

46.9

52.1

(5.2)

 

51.1

48.7

2.4

15

52.2

46.8

5.3

15

15

7.6

1937

2.89

1

HI

4

71.8

26.6

45.3

4

70.4

27.6

42.8

4

62.3

36.1

26.2

4

 

(2.5)

860

3.97

 

ID

4

36

61.3

(25.3)

 

41.8

55.9

(14.1)

 

41.6

55.7

(14.2)

 

 

11.2

748

4.60

1

IL

21

61.9

36.8

25.1

21

66.3

32.4

33.9

21

59.2

39.5

19.7

21

 

8.8

1371

3.25

1

IN

11

49.9

48.9

1.0

11

55.7

43.2

12.5

11

49.3

49.4

(0.1)

 

 

11.5

2394

2.59

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IA

7

53.9

44.4

9.5

7

56.9

41.2

15.7

7

54.2

44.1

10.2

7

 

6.2

3065

2.28

1

KS

6

41.6

56.5

(14.9)

 

46.1

52.6

(6.5)

 

44.8

53.3

(8.6)

 

 

8.4

790

4.52

 

KY

8

41.1

57.4

(16.2)

 

46.8

51.6

(4.8)

 

47.2

51.3

(4.1)

 

 

11.4

1434

3.36

1

LA

9

39.9

58.6

(18.6)

 

45.9

53.0

(7.0)

 

49.7

48.8

0.9

9

9

11.6

1828

2.97

1

ME

4

57.7

40.4

17.3

4

62.1

35.4

26.6

4

60.2

37.9

22.2

4

 

9.3

1521

3.17

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MD

10

61.9

36.5

25.4

10

67.2

30.7

36.5

10

63.3

35.1

28.3

10

 

11.1

976

3.83

1

MA

12

61.8

36

25.8

12

67.0

29.6

37.4

12

66.4

31.4

34.9

12

 

11.6

741

4.40

1

MI

17

57.4

40.9

16.5

17

62.2

35.5

26.7

17

56.9

41.4

15.6

17

 

10.2

3025

2.25

1

MN

10

54.1

43.8

10.2

10

61.9

35.9

26.0

10

59.3

38.6

20.7

10

 

15.8

2327

2.57

1

MS

6

43

56.2

(13.2)

 

48.4

51.1

(2.7)

 

54.8

44.4

10.4

6

6

10.5

1048

3.93

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MO

11

49.3

49.4

(0.1)

 

57.5

41.4

16.1

11

53.4

45.2

8.2

11

11

16.2

2709

2.42

1

MT

3

47.2

49.4

(2.3)

 

54.4

44.0

10.4

3

46.1

50.5

(4.3)

 

 

12.7

1295

3.53

1

NE

5

41.6

56.5

(14.9)

1

49.2

49.1

0.2

5

45.6

52.6

(7.0)

 

 

15.1

1100

3.84

1

NV

5

55.1

42.7

12.5

5

56.3

41.8

14.6

5

60.9

36.9

24.0

5

 

2.1

2717

2.42

 

NH

4

54.1

44.5

9.6

4

61.6

37.1

24.6

4

59.6

39

20.6

4

 

15.0

2183

2.65

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NJ

15

57.2

41.6

15.5

15

63.8

35.1

28.8

15

59.1

39.7

19.4

15

 

13.3

1461

3.20

1

NM

5

56.9

41.8

15.1

5

58.8

39.5

19.3

5

58.9

39.8

19.0

5

 

4.2

2699

2.41

 

NY

31

62.8

36.1

26.7

31

71.5

27.3

44.2

31

65.1

33.8

31.3

31

 

17.5

1577

2.90

1

NC

15

49.7

49.4

0.3

15

53.5

45.8

7.7

15

57

42.1

14.9

15

 

7.4

2796

2.40

1

ND

3

44.5

53.1

(8.6)

 

38.9

59.0

(20.1)

 

43.2

54.3

(11.0)

 

 

(11.5)

906

4.13

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OH

20

51.4

46.8

4.5

20

56.3

42.0

14.2

20

57.6

40.6

17.0

20

 

9.7

3157

2.25

1

OK

7

34.4

65.6

(31.3)

 

40.6

59.3

(18.6)

 

41.6

58.4

(16.7)

 

 

12.7

868

4.25

1

OR

7

56.7

40.4

16.3

7

58.4

38.6

19.9

7

56.1

41

15.1

7

 

3.6

1212

3.61

 

PA

21

54.5

44.2

10.3

21

63.8

35.3

28.5

21

57.3

41.4

15.9

21

 

18.2

2727

2.35

1

RI

4

63.1

35.2

27.9

4

67.5

29.4

38.1

4

67.2

31.1

36.0

4

 

10.2

807

4.20

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SC

8

44.9

53.9

(9.0)

 

47.5

51.4

(3.9)

 

54.1

44.7

9.4

8

8

5.1

1151

3.75

 

SD

3

44.7

53.2

(8.4)

 

48.7

48.7

0.0

 

43.7

54.2

(10.6)

 

 

8.4

952

4.13

1

TN

11

41.8

56.9

(15.1)

 

47.7

50.3

(2.6)

 

48.8

49.9

(1.2)

 

 

12.5

1685

3.10

1

TX

34

43.6

55.4

(11.8)

 

46.2

52.3

(6.1)

 

49.6

49.4

0.2

34

34

5.7

2070

2.79

1

UT

5

34.3

62.3

(28.1)

 

31.5

63.8

(32.3)

 

38.1

58.5

(20.3)

 

 

(4.2)

529

5.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VT

3

67.5

30.5

37.0

3

71.5

26.5

45.0

3

67.6

30.4

37.2

3

 

8.0

844

3.96

1

VA

13

52.6

46.3

6.3

13

62.5

36.7

25.8

13

56.4

42.6

13.8

13

 

19.5

2445

2.49

1

WA

11

57.4

40.3

17.1

11

57.9

38.2

19.7

11

60.7

37.1

23.6

11

 

2.6

1193

3.64

 

WV

5

42.6

55.7

(13.1)

 

45.1

53.1

(8.0)

 

47.2

51

(3.8)

 

 

5.1

1021

3.97

 

WI

10

56.2

42.3

13.9

10

63.3

35.7

27.6

10

57.2

41.3

15.9

10

 

13.7

2520

2.45

1

WY

3

32.5

64.8

(32.2)

 

34.1

64.2

(30.1)

 

41.2

56.1

(14.9)

 

 

2.1

943

3.93

 

 

 

2- Final 2008 National Exit Poll 

 

Forced to match recorded vote with an impossible turnout of 2004 living voters (102.5% Bush and 452% third-party).

 

National

2004

2004

 

        2008

           Vote Share

 

                 ---Votes (000)---

 

 

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

DNV

 -

 -

 -

17,078

13%

71%

27%

2%

12,125

4,611

342

-

Kerry

62,158

59,028

56,077

48,607

37%

89%

9%

2%

43,260

4,375

972

86.7%

Bush

62,313

62,041

58,939

60,430

46%

17%

82%

1%

10,273

49,553

604

102.5%

Other

1,266

1,224

1,163

5,255

4%

72%

26%

2%

3,783

1,366

105

451.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEP

125,737

122,294

116,179

131,370

100%

52.86%

45.60%

1.54%

69,442

59,905

2,023

98.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Recorded

365 EV

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

 

 

3- 2008 True Vote Model

 

Feasible 97% turnout of 2004 voters.

 

National

2004

2004

 

       2008

        Vote shares

 

                 ---Votes (000)---

 

 

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

DNV

 -

 -

 -

16,441

12.4%

71%

27%

2%

11,673

4,439

329

-

Kerry

67,370

59,028

64,001

62,081

46.9%

89%

9%

2%

55,252

5,587

1,242

97.0%

Bush

56,657

62,041

53,824

52,210

39.5%

17%

82%

1%

8,876

42,812

522

97.0%

Other

1,710

1,224

1,625

1,576

1.2%

72%

26%

2%

1,135

410

32

97.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True

125,737

122,294

119,450

132,308

100%

58.1%

40.3%

1.6%

76,936

53,248

2,124

97.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Recorded

365 EV

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

Recorded

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

Discrepancy

-

5.28%

-5.38%

0.10%

7,479

(6,687)

146

 

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

4-  2004 Recorded Vote vs. Unadjusted Exit Polls vs. True Vote

 

 

 

2004

Recorded

 

 

Exit Poll

 

 

True Vote

 

 

Flipped to

 

Kerry

Bush

Margin

EV

Kerry

Bush

Margin

EV

Kerry

Bush

Margin

EV

Bush

 

59.0

62.0

-3.0

252

65.3

59.2

6.1

338

67.3

56.8

10.4

379

12

 

48.3%

50.7%

-2.5%

 

51.9%

47.1%

4.8%

 

53.6%

45.2%

8.3%

 

127 EV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AL

36.8

62.5

-25.6

 

41.8

57.5

-15.6

 

46.5

52.8

-6.3

 

 

AK

35.5

61.1

-25.5

 

40.2

56.4

-16.2

 

38.5

58.1

-19.5

 

 

AZ

44.4

54.9

-10.5

 

44.5

54.7

-10.2

 

51.3

47.9

3.4

10

10

AR

44.5

54.3

-9.8

 

45.2

53.7

-8.5

 

49.6

49.3

0.3

6

6

CA

54.3

44.4

9.9

55

60.1

38.6

21.5

55

58.9

39.8

19.1

55

 

CO

47.0

51.7

-4.7

 

50.1

48.6

1.4

9

52.4

46.3

6.1

9

9

CT

54.3

43.9

10.4

7

62.3

35.9

26.4

7

64.0

34.2

29.8

7

 

DE

53.3

45.8

7.6

3

61.3

37.8

23.5

3

59.2

39.9

19.2

3

 

DC

89.2

9.3

79.8

3

90.6

7.9

82.6

3

89.0

9.5

79.5

3

 

FL

47.1

52.1

-5.0

 

51.0

48.2

2.8

27

52.3

46.8

5.5

27

27

GA

41.4

58.0

-16.6

 

42.0

57.3

-15.3

 

48.0

51.3

-3.3

 

 

HI

54.0

45.3

8.7

4

58.1

41.2

16.9

4

64.9

34.4

30.5

4

 

ID

30.3

68.4

-38.1

 

32.3

66.4

-34.1

 

33.2

65.4

-32.2

 

 

IL

54.8

44.5

10.3

21

56.6

42.7

13.8

21

59.4

39.9

19.5

21

 

IN

39.3

59.9

-20.7

 

40.4

58.8

-18.5

 

46.8

52.4

-5.6

 

 

IA

49.2

49.9

-0.7

 

50.7

48.4

2.3

7

53.3

45.9

7.4

7

7

KS

36.6

62.0

-25.4

 

37.2

61.5

-24.3

 

42.4

56.2

-13.8

 

 

KY

39.7

59.6

-19.9

 

39.9

59.4

-19.5

 

45.8

53.4

-7.6

 

 

LA

42.2

56.7

-14.5

 

43.5

55.4

-11.9

 

49.7

49.3

0.4

9

9

ME

53.6

44.6

9.0

4

55.6

42.6

13.0

4

56.3

41.9

14.4

4

 

MD

55.9

42.9

13.0

10

59.6

39.3

20.3

10

60.9

38.0

22.9

10

 

MA

61.9

36.8

25.2

12

65.8

32.9

32.9

12

67.3

31.4

35.8

12

 

MI

51.2

47.8

3.4

17

54.4

44.6

9.8

17

55.1

43.9

11.2

17

 

MN

51.1

47.6

3.5

10

55.7

43.0

12.7

10

55.9

42.8

13.1

10

 

MS

39.8

59.4

-19.7

 

49.0

50.2

-1.2

 

47.4

51.8

-4.4

 

 

MO

46.1

53.3

-7.2

 

49.0

50.4

-1.4

 

52.4

47.0

5.4

11

11

MT

38.6

59.1

-20.5

 

37.3

60.4

-23.1

 

40.7

56.9

-16.2

 

 

NE

32.7

65.9

-33.2

 

37.0

61.5

-24.5

 

37.5

61.1

-23.7

 

 

NV

47.9

50.5

-2.6

 

52.8

45.5

7.3

5

52.4

45.9

6.5

5

5

NH

50.2

48.9

1.4

4

57.2

41.9

15.4

4

53.5

45.6

7.9

4

 

NJ

52.9

46.2

6.7

15

57.5

41.7

15.8

15

60.0

39.2

20.8

15

 

NM

49.0

49.8

-0.8

 

53.0

45.8

7.2

5

54.5

44.4

10.1

5

5

NY

58.4

40.1

18.3

31

64.5

34.0

30.5

31

64.0

34.4

29.6

31

 

NC

43.6

56.0

-12.4

 

49.5

50.1

-0.5

 

47.5

52.1

-4.6

 

 

ND

35.5

62.9

-27.4

 

34.6

63.7

-29.1

 

40.3

58.1

-17.8

 

 

OH

48.7

50.8

-2.1

 

54.0

45.5

8.5

20

52.3

47.2

5.1

20

20

OK

34.4

65.6

-31.1

 

33.8

66.2

-32.3

 

44.1

55.9

-11.8

 

 

OR

51.3

47.2

4.2

7

52.2

46.3

6.0

7

54.6

43.9

10.7

7

 

PA

50.9

48.4

2.5

21

55.1

44.2

10.9

21

55.3

44.1

11.2

21

 

RI

59.4

38.7

20.8

4

62.1

36.0

26.1

4

66.4

31.7

34.7

4

 

SC

40.9

58.0

-17.1

 

45.8

53.1

-7.4

 

48.4

50.5

-2.0

 

 

SD

38.4

59.9

-21.5

 

35.9

62.5

-26.6

 

41.4

57.0

-15.6

 

 

TN

42.5

56.8

-14.3

 

43.2

56.1

-13.0

 

49.7

49.7

0.0

 

 

TX

38.2

61.1

-22.9

 

42.0

57.3

-15.3

 

44.0

55.3

-11.4

 

 

UT

26.0

71.5

-45.5

 

28.1

69.4

-41.2

 

32.7

64.9

-32.2

 

 

VT

58.9

38.8

20.1

3

66.5

31.2

35.3

3

60.0

37.8

22.2

3

 

VA

45.5

53.7

-8.2

 

49.8

49.3

0.5

13

49.8

49.3

0.5

13

13

WA

52.8

45.6

7.2

11

56.8

41.6

15.2

11

55.9

42.5

13.4

11

 

WV

43.2

56.1

-12.9

 

40.2

59.0

-18.8

 

50.6

48.7

1.9

5

5

WI

49.7

49.3

0.4

10

52.1

46.9

5.2

10

53.5

45.6

7.9

10

 

WY

29.1

68.9

-39.8

 

32.6

65.4

-32.8

 

31.5

66.4

-34.9

 

 

 

 

5- Final 2004 National Exit Poll

Forced to match the recorded vote with an Impossible 109.7% turnout of Bush 2000 voters and implausible final vote share adjustments.

 

 

National

2000

2000

 

     2004          

      Vote share

 

                 ---Votes (000)---

 

 

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

 -

 -

 -

20,790

17%

54%

44%

2%

11,227

9,148

416

-

Gore

55,436

51,004

48,454

45,249

37%

90%

10%

0%

40,724

4,525

0

93.4%

Bush

51,376

50,460

47,937

52,586

43%

9%

91%

0%

4,733

47,853

0

109.7%

Other

4,160

3,953

3,756

3,669

3%

64%

14%

22%

2,348

514

807

97.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEP

110,973

105,417

100,147

122,294

100.0%

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,031

62,039

1,223

101.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

252 EV

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

122,294

 

 

6- 2004 True Vote Model

12:22 am NEP vote shares; feasible 98% turnout of Election 2000 voters.

 

National

2000

2000

 

           2004

     Vote Shares

 

                 ---Votes (000)---

 

 

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

 -

 -

 -

22,421

17.8%

57%

41%

2%

12,780

9,193

448

-

Gore

55,997

51,004

53,197

52,133

41.5%

91%

9%

0%

47,441

4,692

0

98.0%

Bush

50,870

50,460

48,327

47,360

37.7%

10%

90%

0%

4,736

42,624

0

98.0%

Other

4,106

3,953

3,901

3,823

3.0%

64%

14%

22%

2,447

535

841

98.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True

110,973

105,417

105,424

125,737

100.0%

53.6%

45.4%

1.0%

67,404

57,044

1,289

98.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

252 EV

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

122,294

Recorded

48.38%

47.87%

3.75%

Discrepancy

-

5.34%

-5.36%

0.02%

8,375

(4,997)

65

 

 

 

 

 

7- Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

      Recorded

 

    True Vote

 

Margin

True Returning Voter Mix

 

 

Dem

Rep

Dem

Rep

Error

DNV

Dem

Rep

Other

2008

52.9%

45.6%

58.1%

40.3%

-10.5%

12.4%

46.9%

39.5%

1%

2004

48.3%

50.7%

53.6%

45.4%

-10.6%

17.9%

41.3%

37.7%

3%

2000

48.4%

47.9%

50.3%

46.0%

-3.9%

13.6%

46.1%

32.0%

8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1996

49.2%

40.7%

53.4%

37.1%

-7.8%

9.4%

46.2%

27.9%

17%

1992

43.0%

37.4%

50.9%

30.8%

-14.6%

16.4%

41.5%

41.2%

1%

1988

45.6%

53.4%

49.6%

49.3%

-8.1%

11.0%

37.5%

50.9%

1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1984

40.6%

58.8%

42.1%

57.2%

-3.1%

17.6%

35.2%

40.3%

7%

1980

41.0%

50.7%

42.7%

48.9%

-3.5%

16.8%

44.1%

37.6%

1%

1976

50.1%

48.0%

53.0%

45.2%

-5.7%

11.7%

35.7%

50.0%

3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1972

36.2%

60.7%

40.4%

56.6%

-8.2%

19.5%

36.5%

33.7%

10%

1968

42.9%

43.6%

45.3%

41.9%

-4.1%

-

-

-

-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Avg

45.3%

48.9%

49.0%

45.3%

-7.3%

14.6%

41.1%

39.1%

5.2%

 

 

8- 1968-2008 Final National Exit Poll – forced to match the recorded vote

 

 

Recorded

 

  Final NEP Mix

 

 

 

Previous election voter turnout required to match recorded vote

 

Dem

Rep

DNV

Dem

Rep

Other

Dem

Rep

Other

2008

52.9%

45.6%

13%

37%

46%

4%

87%

103%

451%

2004

48.3%

50.7%

17%

37%

43%

3%

93%

110%

98%

2000

48.4%

47.9%

18%

41%

33%

8%

96%

93%

92%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1996

49.2%

40.7%

13%

38%

31%

18%

86%

80%

80%

1992

43.0%

37.4%

18%

28%

53%

1%

74%

119%

85%

1988

45.6%

53.4%

8%

33%

58%

1%

85%

103%

93%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1984

40.6%

58.8%

16%

34%

44%

6%

93%

98%

81%

1980

41.0%

50.7%

16%

42%

41%

1%

94%

95%

59%

1976

50.1%

48.0%

15%

30%

53%

3%

91%

96%

89%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1972

36.2%

60.7%

11%

35%

44%

10%

92%

113%

83%

1968

42.9%

43.6%

20%

49%

31%

-

93%

99%

-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Avg

45.30%

48.90%

14.50%

35.50%

44.60%

5.40%

89%

101%

121%