Unadjusted
2008 State Exit Polls: Further Confirmation of the True Vote Model
Sept. 22,
2011
The
2008 unadjusted state exit polls confirm the True
Vote Model (TVM). The national aggregate (Table 1) exactly matched Obama’s
58.1% TVM share (Table 3). It indicates that Obama won a 23 million vote
landslide, far exceeding his 9.5 million recorded vote margin. The TVM
uses Final 2008 NEP vote shares
but with a feasible mix of returning Kerry and Bush voters reflecting
Kerry's 7% True Vote margin. The basic results are not surprising: Obama did
better in the aggregate state exit polls than the vote count (52.9%). But the
Democrats always do better in the polls. What is surprising is that he did 5.2%
better - exactly matching the TVM. By way of comparison, Kerry did 3.7% better
in the unadjusted exit polls (52%) than in the recorded vote (48.3%). He had
53.6% in the TVM.
The National and State unadjusted exit
polls, True Vote Models and Late Votes confirm that the recorded vote
understates Obama’s True share by 4-5%.
http://richardcharnin.com/2008NEPUnadjustedRoper_28080_image001.gif
A Triple
Confirmation
In the 2008 National
Exit Poll (NEP), 4178 of the 17836 responders were asked how they voted in 2004:
1815 (43.4%) said they were Kerry voters, 1614 (38.6%) Bush, 188 (4.5%) third-party
and 561 (13.4%) did not vote. Applying Final NEP vote shares to the returning
voter mix, Obama had a 58.1% share - exactly matching a) his 58.1% share
of the aggregate unadjusted state exit
polls and b) his 58.1% TVM share! The returning voter mix implied that Kerry won
by 50.2-44.6%.
But all
exit polls are forced to match the recorded vote. The pollsters needed an
impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry mix which implied that Bush won by 52.6-42.3%. His
(bogus) recorded margin was 50.7-48.3%. Kerry won the True Vote with 53.6%
(Table 6). In the Final 2008 NEP, pollsters effectively converted 269 of 1815
(15%) Kerry responders to Bush responders in order to force a
match to the recorded vote.
To
summarize, the unadjusted 2008 NEP exactly matched the weighted aggregate share
of the unadjusted state exit polls, based on how the the
exit poll responders said they voted in 2004 and 2008. It also matched the TVM which used 2004 votes
cast, voter mortality, a best estimate of living 2004 voter turnout in 2008 –
and the Final 2008 NEP vote shares.
Obama had 58.1% in each calculation – a triple confirmation that Obama won a 23
million vote landslide, far exceeding his 9.5 million recorded vote margin.
|
2004 |
|
Respondents |
Unadjusted
Nat Exit Poll |
|
2004 |
|
Adjusted |
|
Final
National Exit Poll |
|||||
|
Implied |
|
Voted04 |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
Implied |
|
Voted
04 |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
50.18% |
Kerry |
1815 |
43.44% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
|
42.28% |
Kerry |
1546 |
37% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
|
44.62% |
Bush |
1614 |
38.63% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
|
52.57% |
Bush |
1922 |
46% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
|
5.20% |
Other |
188 |
4.50% |
70% |
24% |
6% |
|
5.14% |
Other |
188 |
4% |
70% |
24% |
6% |
|
|
DNV |
561 |
13.43% |
72% |
27% |
1% |
|
|
DNV |
561 |
13% |
72% |
27% |
1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
4178 |
100.0% |
58.1% |
40.3% |
1.6% |
|
|
Total |
4178 |
100% |
52.9% |
45.5% |
1.6% |
|
|
|
|
131.3 |
76.2 |
52.9 |
2.2 |
|
|
|
|
131.3 |
69.5 |
59.9 |
1.9 |
But that's not all. The
National Exit Poll is a subset of 17836 respondents out of the 80,000 sampled
in the state exit polls. Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 61-37%,
a landslide of historic proportions. However, the state exit polls have a
smaller margin of error and are probably a better estimate of the True Vote.
The
key result is the state exit poll aggregate vote share. The national
sample size was approximately 80,000. The average state exit poll margin of
error was 3.35% (including a 30% “cluster” effect). The margin of error was
exceeded in 37 states; in 2004 it was exceeded in 29. Of the 50 states and DC, 45 shifted to McCain
from the exit poll. The difference in margin between the exit poll and the recorded
vote is the average Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD). The WPD was 10.6 in 2008, far
above the 7.4 in 2004.
The
True Vote Model has closely matched the unadjusted state and
national exit polls in every presidential election since 1988. In the 11 presidential
elections from 1968 to 2008, the Republicans had a 49-45% recorded vote margin
while the Democrats had a 49-45% True Vote margin (Table 7).
In
a given state, the exit poll varies from the corresponding True Vote
calculation. But the total aggregate share is an exact match, illustrating
the Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem.
The
National True Vote Model is based on previous election votes cast and turnout
of previous election voters, current votes cast and National Exit Poll (NEP)
vote shares. The State Model works the same way. It's based on returning state
voters with NEP vote shares adjusted according to the state/national vote share
ratio.
It
should be obvious by now that final weighting adjustments made to the exit
polls are made to match the recorded vote. In 2004, in addition to the
impossible return voter mix , the 12:22am preliminary
national exit poll vote shares had to be adjusted in the Final NEP. The
required turnout of living Bush voters was 110% .
Kerry had a 52.0% aggregate share and a 53.6% TVM share (Table 6). Of course, all demographic categories had to
be adjusted to match the vote count:
Final NEP “Party-ID”, “When Decided” and “Bush Approval” crosstab
weights did not match the corresponding pre-election polls and were adjusted to
force a match to the recorded vote.
Tables 1-6 display unadjusted 2004 and 2008 State exit
polls, Final National Exit Poll and True Vote Model.
Table
7 displays the 1968-2008 True Vote and the associated
returning voter mix.
Table
8 displays returning voter mix and turnout in the 1968-2008 Final National Exit
Polls that were required to match the recorded vote.
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html
I- 2008 Recorded Vote vs. Unadjusted Exit Polls vs. True Vote
(True Vote method 3 uses
the previous unadjusted exit poll as the basis for calculating returning voter
turnout)
|
|
|
Recorded Vote |
|
|
NEP Exit Poll |
|
|
TVM |
Method3 |
|
|
|
|
Cluster> |
30% |
|
||
|
|
|
Obama |
McCain |
Margin |
EV |
Obama |
McCain |
Margin |
EV |
Obama |
McCain |
Margin |
EV |
McCain |
WPD |
Sample |
MoE |
Exceed |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
79945 |
0.38% |
MoE |
|
Votes |
131.308 |
69.46 |
59.92 |
9.52 |
365 |
76.2 |
52.8 |
23.4 |
426 |
74.2 |
55 |
19.3 |
452 |
99 EV |
|
Average |
Average |
|
|
Share |
EV |
52.9% |
45.6% |
7.3% |
|
58.1% |
40.3% |
17.8% |
|
56.6% |
41.9% |
14.7% |
|
8 states |
10.6 |
1599 |
3.35% |
37 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9 |
38.7 |
60.3 |
(21.6) |
|
52.0 |
47.0 |
5.0 |
9 |
48.5 |
50.5 |
(2.0) |
|
|
26.6 |
1062 |
3.91 |
1 |
|
AK |
3 |
37.9 |
59.4 |
(21.5) |
|
49.1 |
47.5 |
1.6 |
3 |
48.3 |
49 |
(0.7) |
|
|
23.1 |
1153 |
3.75 |
1 |
|
AZ |
10 |
44.9 |
53.4 |
(8.5) |
|
51.4 |
47.9 |
3.5 |
10 |
52.7 |
45.6 |
7.1 |
10 |
10 |
12.0 |
1225 |
3.64 |
1 |
|
AR * |
6 |
38.9 |
58.7 |
(19.9) |
|
50.2 |
47.4 |
2.8 |
6 |
50.2 |
47.4 |
2.8 |
6 |
6 |
22.7 |
na |
|
|
|
CA |
55 |
61 |
36.9 |
24.0 |
55 |
67.0 |
30.6 |
36.4 |
55 |
64.1 |
33.8 |
30.4 |
55 |
|
12.4 |
2253 |
2.52 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CO |
9 |
53.7 |
44.7 |
9.0 |
9 |
51.9 |
46.1 |
5.8 |
9 |
55.7 |
42.6 |
13.1 |
9 |
|
(3.2) |
1229 |
3.63 |
|
|
CT |
7 |
60.6 |
38.2 |
22.4 |
7 |
73.4 |
24.0 |
49.4 |
7 |
63.5 |
35.3 |
28.2 |
7 |
|
27.0 |
841 |
3.88 |
1 |
|
DE |
3 |
61.9 |
36.9 |
25.0 |
3 |
68.6 |
30.9 |
37.7 |
3 |
64.1 |
34.7 |
29.4 |
3 |
|
12.7 |
767 |
4.27 |
1 |
|
DC |
3 |
92.5 |
6.5 |
85.9 |
3 |
92.0 |
6.4 |
85.7 |
3 |
92.5 |
6.5 |
85.9 |
3 |
|
(0.2) |
494 |
3.10 |
|
|
FL |
27 |
50.9 |
48.1 |
2.8 |
27 |
52.1 |
46.1 |
6.0 |
27 |
55.1 |
44 |
11.1 |
27 |
|
3.2 |
3289 |
2.22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GA |
15 |
46.9 |
52.1 |
(5.2) |
|
51.1 |
48.7 |
2.4 |
15 |
52.2 |
46.8 |
5.3 |
15 |
15 |
7.6 |
1937 |
2.89 |
1 |
|
HI |
4 |
71.8 |
26.6 |
45.3 |
4 |
70.4 |
27.6 |
42.8 |
4 |
62.3 |
36.1 |
26.2 |
4 |
|
(2.5) |
860 |
3.97 |
|
|
ID |
4 |
36 |
61.3 |
(25.3) |
|
41.8 |
55.9 |
(14.1) |
|
41.6 |
55.7 |
(14.2) |
|
|
11.2 |
748 |
4.60 |
1 |
|
IL |
21 |
61.9 |
36.8 |
25.1 |
21 |
66.3 |
32.4 |
33.9 |
21 |
59.2 |
39.5 |
19.7 |
21 |
|
8.8 |
1371 |
3.25 |
1 |
|
IN |
11 |
49.9 |
48.9 |
1.0 |
11 |
55.7 |
43.2 |
12.5 |
11 |
49.3 |
49.4 |
(0.1) |
|
|
11.5 |
2394 |
2.59 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IA |
7 |
53.9 |
44.4 |
9.5 |
7 |
56.9 |
41.2 |
15.7 |
7 |
54.2 |
44.1 |
10.2 |
7 |
|
6.2 |
3065 |
2.28 |
1 |
|
KS |
6 |
41.6 |
56.5 |
(14.9) |
|
46.1 |
52.6 |
(6.5) |
|
44.8 |
53.3 |
(8.6) |
|
|
8.4 |
790 |
4.52 |
|
|
KY |
8 |
41.1 |
57.4 |
(16.2) |
|
46.8 |
51.6 |
(4.8) |
|
47.2 |
51.3 |
(4.1) |
|
|
11.4 |
1434 |
3.36 |
1 |
|
LA |
9 |
39.9 |
58.6 |
(18.6) |
|
45.9 |
53.0 |
(7.0) |
|
49.7 |
48.8 |
0.9 |
9 |
9 |
11.6 |
1828 |
2.97 |
1 |
|
ME |
4 |
57.7 |
40.4 |
17.3 |
4 |
62.1 |
35.4 |
26.6 |
4 |
60.2 |
37.9 |
22.2 |
4 |
|
9.3 |
1521 |
3.17 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MD |
10 |
61.9 |
36.5 |
25.4 |
10 |
67.2 |
30.7 |
36.5 |
10 |
63.3 |
35.1 |
28.3 |
10 |
|
11.1 |
976 |
3.83 |
1 |
|
MA |
12 |
61.8 |
36 |
25.8 |
12 |
67.0 |
29.6 |
37.4 |
12 |
66.4 |
31.4 |
34.9 |
12 |
|
11.6 |
741 |
4.40 |
1 |
|
MI |
17 |
57.4 |
40.9 |
16.5 |
17 |
62.2 |
35.5 |
26.7 |
17 |
56.9 |
41.4 |
15.6 |
17 |
|
10.2 |
3025 |
2.25 |
1 |
|
MN |
10 |
54.1 |
43.8 |
10.2 |
10 |
61.9 |
35.9 |
26.0 |
10 |
59.3 |
38.6 |
20.7 |
10 |
|
15.8 |
2327 |
2.57 |
1 |
|
MS |
6 |
43 |
56.2 |
(13.2) |
|
48.4 |
51.1 |
(2.7) |
|
54.8 |
44.4 |
10.4 |
6 |
6 |
10.5 |
1048 |
3.93 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MO |
11 |
49.3 |
49.4 |
(0.1) |
|
57.5 |
41.4 |
16.1 |
11 |
53.4 |
45.2 |
8.2 |
11 |
11 |
16.2 |
2709 |
2.42 |
1 |
|
MT |
3 |
47.2 |
49.4 |
(2.3) |
|
54.4 |
44.0 |
10.4 |
3 |
46.1 |
50.5 |
(4.3) |
|
|
12.7 |
1295 |
3.53 |
1 |
|
NE |
5 |
41.6 |
56.5 |
(14.9) |
1 |
49.2 |
49.1 |
0.2 |
5 |
45.6 |
52.6 |
(7.0) |
|
|
15.1 |
1100 |
3.84 |
1 |
|
NV |
5 |
55.1 |
42.7 |
12.5 |
5 |
56.3 |
41.8 |
14.6 |
5 |
60.9 |
36.9 |
24.0 |
5 |
|
2.1 |
2717 |
2.42 |
|
|
NH |
4 |
54.1 |
44.5 |
9.6 |
4 |
61.6 |
37.1 |
24.6 |
4 |
59.6 |
39 |
20.6 |
4 |
|
15.0 |
2183 |
2.65 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NJ |
15 |
57.2 |
41.6 |
15.5 |
15 |
63.8 |
35.1 |
28.8 |
15 |
59.1 |
39.7 |
19.4 |
15 |
|
13.3 |
1461 |
3.20 |
1 |
|
NM |
5 |
56.9 |
41.8 |
15.1 |
5 |
58.8 |
39.5 |
19.3 |
5 |
58.9 |
39.8 |
19.0 |
5 |
|
4.2 |
2699 |
2.41 |
|
|
NY |
31 |
62.8 |
36.1 |
26.7 |
31 |
71.5 |
27.3 |
44.2 |
31 |
65.1 |
33.8 |
31.3 |
31 |
|
17.5 |
1577 |
2.90 |
1 |
|
NC |
15 |
49.7 |
49.4 |
0.3 |
15 |
53.5 |
45.8 |
7.7 |
15 |
57 |
42.1 |
14.9 |
15 |
|
7.4 |
2796 |
2.40 |
1 |
|
ND |
3 |
44.5 |
53.1 |
(8.6) |
|
38.9 |
59.0 |
(20.1) |
|
43.2 |
54.3 |
(11.0) |
|
|
(11.5) |
906 |
4.13 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OH |
20 |
51.4 |
46.8 |
4.5 |
20 |
56.3 |
42.0 |
14.2 |
20 |
57.6 |
40.6 |
17.0 |
20 |
|
9.7 |
3157 |
2.25 |
1 |
|
OK |
7 |
34.4 |
65.6 |
(31.3) |
|
40.6 |
59.3 |
(18.6) |
|
41.6 |
58.4 |
(16.7) |
|
|
12.7 |
868 |
4.25 |
1 |
|
OR |
7 |
56.7 |
40.4 |
16.3 |
7 |
58.4 |
38.6 |
19.9 |
7 |
56.1 |
41 |
15.1 |
7 |
|
3.6 |
1212 |
3.61 |
|
|
PA |
21 |
54.5 |
44.2 |
10.3 |
21 |
63.8 |
35.3 |
28.5 |
21 |
57.3 |
41.4 |
15.9 |
21 |
|
18.2 |
2727 |
2.35 |
1 |
|
RI |
4 |
63.1 |
35.2 |
27.9 |
4 |
67.5 |
29.4 |
38.1 |
4 |
67.2 |
31.1 |
36.0 |
4 |
|
10.2 |
807 |
4.20 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SC |
8 |
44.9 |
53.9 |
(9.0) |
|
47.5 |
51.4 |
(3.9) |
|
54.1 |
44.7 |
9.4 |
8 |
8 |
5.1 |
1151 |
3.75 |
|
|
SD |
3 |
44.7 |
53.2 |
(8.4) |
|
48.7 |
48.7 |
0.0 |
|
43.7 |
54.2 |
(10.6) |
|
|
8.4 |
952 |
4.13 |
1 |
|
TN |
11 |
41.8 |
56.9 |
(15.1) |
|
47.7 |
50.3 |
(2.6) |
|
48.8 |
49.9 |
(1.2) |
|
|
12.5 |
1685 |
3.10 |
1 |
|
TX |
34 |
43.6 |
55.4 |
(11.8) |
|
46.2 |
52.3 |
(6.1) |
|
49.6 |
49.4 |
0.2 |
34 |
34 |
5.7 |
2070 |
2.79 |
1 |
|
UT |
5 |
34.3 |
62.3 |
(28.1) |
|
31.5 |
63.8 |
(32.3) |
|
38.1 |
58.5 |
(20.3) |
|
|
(4.2) |
529 |
5.15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
VT |
3 |
67.5 |
30.5 |
37.0 |
3 |
71.5 |
26.5 |
45.0 |
3 |
67.6 |
30.4 |
37.2 |
3 |
|
8.0 |
844 |
3.96 |
1 |
|
VA |
13 |
52.6 |
46.3 |
6.3 |
13 |
62.5 |
36.7 |
25.8 |
13 |
56.4 |
42.6 |
13.8 |
13 |
|
19.5 |
2445 |
2.49 |
1 |
|
WA |
11 |
57.4 |
40.3 |
17.1 |
11 |
57.9 |
38.2 |
19.7 |
11 |
60.7 |
37.1 |
23.6 |
11 |
|
2.6 |
1193 |
3.64 |
|
|
WV |
5 |
42.6 |
55.7 |
(13.1) |
|
45.1 |
53.1 |
(8.0) |
|
47.2 |
51 |
(3.8) |
|
|
5.1 |
1021 |
3.97 |
|
|
WI |
10 |
56.2 |
42.3 |
13.9 |
10 |
63.3 |
35.7 |
27.6 |
10 |
57.2 |
41.3 |
15.9 |
10 |
|
13.7 |
2520 |
2.45 |
1 |
|
WY |
3 |
32.5 |
64.8 |
(32.2) |
|
34.1 |
64.2 |
(30.1) |
|
41.2 |
56.1 |
(14.9) |
|
|
2.1 |
943 |
3.93 |
|
2- Final 2008
National Exit Poll
Forced to match recorded vote with an impossible
turnout of 2004 living voters (102.5% Bush and 452% third-party).
|
National |
2004 |
2004 |
|
2008 |
Vote Share |
|
---Votes (000)--- |
|
||||
|
|
Cast |
Recorded |
Alive |
Turnout |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Turnout |
|
DNV |
- |
- |
- |
17,078 |
13% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
12,125 |
4,611 |
342 |
- |
|
Kerry |
62,158 |
59,028 |
56,077 |
48,607 |
37% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
43,260 |
4,375 |
972 |
86.7% |
|
Bush |
62,313 |
62,041 |
58,939 |
60,430 |
46% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
10,273 |
49,553 |
604 |
102.5% |
|
Other |
1,266 |
1,224 |
1,163 |
5,255 |
4% |
72% |
26% |
2% |
3,783 |
1,366 |
105 |
451.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEP |
125,737 |
122,294 |
116,179 |
131,370 |
100% |
52.86% |
45.60% |
1.54% |
69,442 |
59,905 |
2,023 |
98.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Recorded |
365 EV |
52.87% |
45.62% |
1.51% |
69,457 |
59,935 |
1,978 |
131,370 |
3- 2008 True Vote Model
Feasible 97% turnout of 2004 voters.
|
National |
2004 |
2004 |
|
2008 |
Vote shares |
|
---Votes (000)--- |
|
||||
|
|
Cast |
Recorded |
Alive |
Turnout |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Turnout |
|
DNV |
- |
- |
- |
16,441 |
12.4% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
11,673 |
4,439 |
329 |
- |
|
Kerry |
67,370 |
59,028 |
64,001 |
62,081 |
46.9% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
55,252 |
5,587 |
1,242 |
97.0% |
|
Bush |
56,657 |
62,041 |
53,824 |
52,210 |
39.5% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
8,876 |
42,812 |
522 |
97.0% |
|
Other |
1,710 |
1,224 |
1,625 |
1,576 |
1.2% |
72% |
26% |
2% |
1,135 |
410 |
32 |
97.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True |
125,737 |
122,294 |
119,450 |
132,308 |
100% |
58.1% |
40.3% |
1.6% |
76,936 |
53,248 |
2,124 |
97.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Recorded |
365 EV |
52.87% |
45.62% |
1.51% |
69,457 |
59,935 |
1,978 |
131,370 |
|
Recorded |
48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
Discrepancy |
- |
5.28% |
-5.38% |
0.10% |
7,479 |
(6,687) |
146 |
|
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
4- 2004 Recorded Vote vs. Unadjusted Exit Polls vs. True Vote
|
|
2004 |
Recorded |
|
|
Exit Poll |
|
|
True Vote |
|
|
Flipped to |
||
|
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Margin |
EV |
Kerry |
Bush |
Margin |
EV |
Kerry |
Bush |
Margin |
EV |
Bush |
|
|
59.0 |
62.0 |
-3.0 |
252 |
65.3 |
59.2 |
6.1 |
338 |
67.3 |
56.8 |
10.4 |
379 |
12 |
|
|
48.3% |
50.7% |
-2.5% |
|
51.9% |
47.1% |
4.8% |
|
53.6% |
45.2% |
8.3% |
|
127 EV |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
36.8 |
62.5 |
-25.6 |
|
41.8 |
57.5 |
-15.6 |
|
46.5 |
52.8 |
-6.3 |
|
|
|
AK |
35.5 |
61.1 |
-25.5 |
|
40.2 |
56.4 |
-16.2 |
|
38.5 |
58.1 |
-19.5 |
|
|
|
AZ |
44.4 |
54.9 |
-10.5 |
|
44.5 |
54.7 |
-10.2 |
|
51.3 |
47.9 |
3.4 |
10 |
10 |
|
AR |
44.5 |
54.3 |
-9.8 |
|
45.2 |
53.7 |
-8.5 |
|
49.6 |
49.3 |
0.3 |
6 |
6 |
|
CA |
54.3 |
44.4 |
9.9 |
55 |
60.1 |
38.6 |
21.5 |
55 |
58.9 |
39.8 |
19.1 |
55 |
|
|
CO |
47.0 |
51.7 |
-4.7 |
|
50.1 |
48.6 |
1.4 |
9 |
52.4 |
46.3 |
6.1 |
9 |
9 |
|
CT |
54.3 |
43.9 |
10.4 |
7 |
62.3 |
35.9 |
26.4 |
7 |
64.0 |
34.2 |
29.8 |
7 |
|
|
DE |
53.3 |
45.8 |
7.6 |
3 |
61.3 |
37.8 |
23.5 |
3 |
59.2 |
39.9 |
19.2 |
3 |
|
|
DC |
89.2 |
9.3 |
79.8 |
3 |
90.6 |
7.9 |
82.6 |
3 |
89.0 |
9.5 |
79.5 |
3 |
|
|
FL |
47.1 |
52.1 |
-5.0 |
|
51.0 |
48.2 |
2.8 |
27 |
52.3 |
46.8 |
5.5 |
27 |
27 |
|
GA |
41.4 |
58.0 |
-16.6 |
|
42.0 |
57.3 |
-15.3 |
|
48.0 |
51.3 |
-3.3 |
|
|
|
HI |
54.0 |
45.3 |
8.7 |
4 |
58.1 |
41.2 |
16.9 |
4 |
64.9 |
34.4 |
30.5 |
4 |
|
|
ID |
30.3 |
68.4 |
-38.1 |
|
32.3 |
66.4 |
-34.1 |
|
33.2 |
65.4 |
-32.2 |
|
|
|
IL |
54.8 |
44.5 |
10.3 |
21 |
56.6 |
42.7 |
13.8 |
21 |
59.4 |
39.9 |
19.5 |
21 |
|
|
IN |
39.3 |
59.9 |
-20.7 |
|
40.4 |
58.8 |
-18.5 |
|
46.8 |
52.4 |
-5.6 |
|
|
|
IA |
49.2 |
49.9 |
-0.7 |
|
50.7 |
48.4 |
2.3 |
7 |
53.3 |
45.9 |
7.4 |
7 |
7 |
|
KS |
36.6 |
62.0 |
-25.4 |
|
37.2 |
61.5 |
-24.3 |
|
42.4 |
56.2 |
-13.8 |
|
|
|
KY |
39.7 |
59.6 |
-19.9 |
|
39.9 |
59.4 |
-19.5 |
|
45.8 |
53.4 |
-7.6 |
|
|
|
LA |
42.2 |
56.7 |
-14.5 |
|
43.5 |
55.4 |
-11.9 |
|
49.7 |
49.3 |
0.4 |
9 |
9 |
|
ME |
53.6 |
44.6 |
9.0 |
4 |
55.6 |
42.6 |
13.0 |
4 |
56.3 |
41.9 |
14.4 |
4 |
|
|
MD |
55.9 |
42.9 |
13.0 |
10 |
59.6 |
39.3 |
20.3 |
10 |
60.9 |
38.0 |
22.9 |
10 |
|
|
MA |
61.9 |
36.8 |
25.2 |
12 |
65.8 |
32.9 |
32.9 |
12 |
67.3 |
31.4 |
35.8 |
12 |
|
|
MI |
51.2 |
47.8 |
3.4 |
17 |
54.4 |
44.6 |
9.8 |
17 |
55.1 |
43.9 |
11.2 |
17 |
|
|
MN |
51.1 |
47.6 |
3.5 |
10 |
55.7 |
43.0 |
12.7 |
10 |
55.9 |
42.8 |
13.1 |
10 |
|
|
MS |
39.8 |
59.4 |
-19.7 |
|
49.0 |
50.2 |
-1.2 |
|
47.4 |
51.8 |
-4.4 |
|
|
|
MO |
46.1 |
53.3 |
-7.2 |
|
49.0 |
50.4 |
-1.4 |
|
52.4 |
47.0 |
5.4 |
11 |
11 |
|
MT |
38.6 |
59.1 |
-20.5 |
|
37.3 |
60.4 |
-23.1 |
|
40.7 |
56.9 |
-16.2 |
|
|
|
NE |
32.7 |
65.9 |
-33.2 |
|
37.0 |
61.5 |
-24.5 |
|
37.5 |
61.1 |
-23.7 |
|
|
|
NV |
47.9 |
50.5 |
-2.6 |
|
52.8 |
45.5 |
7.3 |
5 |
52.4 |
45.9 |
6.5 |
5 |
5 |
|
NH |
50.2 |
48.9 |
1.4 |
4 |
57.2 |
41.9 |
15.4 |
4 |
53.5 |
45.6 |
7.9 |
4 |
|
|
NJ |
52.9 |
46.2 |
6.7 |
15 |
57.5 |
41.7 |
15.8 |
15 |
60.0 |
39.2 |
20.8 |
15 |
|
|
NM |
49.0 |
49.8 |
-0.8 |
|
53.0 |
45.8 |
7.2 |
5 |
54.5 |
44.4 |
10.1 |
5 |
5 |
|
NY |
58.4 |
40.1 |
18.3 |
31 |
64.5 |
34.0 |
30.5 |
31 |
64.0 |
34.4 |
29.6 |
31 |
|
|
NC |
43.6 |
56.0 |
-12.4 |
|
49.5 |
50.1 |
-0.5 |
|
47.5 |
52.1 |
-4.6 |
|
|
|
ND |
35.5 |
62.9 |
-27.4 |
|
34.6 |
63.7 |
-29.1 |
|
40.3 |
58.1 |
-17.8 |
|
|
|
OH |
48.7 |
50.8 |
-2.1 |
|
54.0 |
45.5 |
8.5 |
20 |
52.3 |
47.2 |
5.1 |
20 |
20 |
|
OK |
34.4 |
65.6 |
-31.1 |
|
33.8 |
66.2 |
-32.3 |
|
44.1 |
55.9 |
-11.8 |
|
|
|
OR |
51.3 |
47.2 |
4.2 |
7 |
52.2 |
46.3 |
6.0 |
7 |
54.6 |
43.9 |
10.7 |
7 |
|
|
PA |
50.9 |
48.4 |
2.5 |
21 |
55.1 |
44.2 |
10.9 |
21 |
55.3 |
44.1 |
11.2 |
21 |
|
|
RI |
59.4 |
38.7 |
20.8 |
4 |
62.1 |
36.0 |
26.1 |
4 |
66.4 |
31.7 |
34.7 |
4 |
|
|
SC |
40.9 |
58.0 |
-17.1 |
|
45.8 |
53.1 |
-7.4 |
|
48.4 |
50.5 |
-2.0 |
|
|
|
SD |
38.4 |
59.9 |
-21.5 |
|
35.9 |
62.5 |
-26.6 |
|
41.4 |
57.0 |
-15.6 |
|
|
|
TN |
42.5 |
56.8 |
-14.3 |
|
43.2 |
56.1 |
-13.0 |
|
49.7 |
49.7 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
TX |
38.2 |
61.1 |
-22.9 |
|
42.0 |
57.3 |
-15.3 |
|
44.0 |
55.3 |
-11.4 |
|
|
|
UT |
26.0 |
71.5 |
-45.5 |
|
28.1 |
69.4 |
-41.2 |
|
32.7 |
64.9 |
-32.2 |
|
|
|
VT |
58.9 |
38.8 |
20.1 |
3 |
66.5 |
31.2 |
35.3 |
3 |
60.0 |
37.8 |
22.2 |
3 |
|
|
VA |
45.5 |
53.7 |
-8.2 |
|
49.8 |
49.3 |
0.5 |
13 |
49.8 |
49.3 |
0.5 |
13 |
13 |
|
WA |
52.8 |
45.6 |
7.2 |
11 |
56.8 |
41.6 |
15.2 |
11 |
55.9 |
42.5 |
13.4 |
11 |
|
|
WV |
43.2 |
56.1 |
-12.9 |
|
40.2 |
59.0 |
-18.8 |
|
50.6 |
48.7 |
1.9 |
5 |
5 |
|
WI |
49.7 |
49.3 |
0.4 |
10 |
52.1 |
46.9 |
5.2 |
10 |
53.5 |
45.6 |
7.9 |
10 |
|
|
WY |
29.1 |
68.9 |
-39.8 |
|
32.6 |
65.4 |
-32.8 |
|
31.5 |
66.4 |
-34.9 |
|
|
5- Final 2004 National Exit Poll
Forced to match the recorded vote with an Impossible
109.7% turnout of Bush 2000 voters and implausible final vote share
adjustments.
|
National |
2000 |
2000 |
|
2004 |
Vote share |
|
---Votes (000)--- |
|
||||
|
|
Cast |
Recorded |
Alive |
Turnout |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Turnout |
|
DNV |
- |
- |
- |
20,790 |
17% |
54% |
44% |
2% |
11,227 |
9,148 |
416 |
- |
|
Gore |
55,436 |
51,004 |
48,454 |
45,249 |
37% |
90% |
10% |
0% |
40,724 |
4,525 |
0 |
93.4% |
|
Bush |
51,376 |
50,460 |
47,937 |
52,586 |
43% |
9% |
91% |
0% |
4,733 |
47,853 |
0 |
109.7% |
|
Other |
4,160 |
3,953 |
3,756 |
3,669 |
3% |
64% |
14% |
22% |
2,348 |
514 |
807 |
97.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEP |
110,973 |
105,417 |
100,147 |
122,294 |
100.0% |
48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
59,031 |
62,039 |
1,223 |
101.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 |
Gore |
Bush |
Other |
Recorded |
252 EV |
48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
59,028 |
62,041 |
1,224 |
122,294 |
6- 2004 True Vote Model
12:22 am NEP vote shares; feasible 98% turnout of
Election 2000 voters.
|
National |
2000 |
2000 |
|
2004 |
Vote Shares |
|
---Votes (000)--- |
|
||||
|
|
Cast |
Recorded |
Alive |
Turnout |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Turnout |
|
DNV |
- |
- |
- |
22,421 |
17.8% |
57% |
41% |
2% |
12,780 |
9,193 |
448 |
- |
|
Gore |
55,997 |
51,004 |
53,197 |
52,133 |
41.5% |
91% |
9% |
0% |
47,441 |
4,692 |
0 |
98.0% |
|
Bush |
50,870 |
50,460 |
48,327 |
47,360 |
37.7% |
10% |
90% |
0% |
4,736 |
42,624 |
0 |
98.0% |
|
Other |
4,106 |
3,953 |
3,901 |
3,823 |
3.0% |
64% |
14% |
22% |
2,447 |
535 |
841 |
98.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True |
110,973 |
105,417 |
105,424 |
125,737 |
100.0% |
53.6% |
45.4% |
1.0% |
67,404 |
57,044 |
1,289 |
98.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 |
Gore |
Bush |
Other |
Recorded |
252 EV |
48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
59,028 |
62,041 |
1,224 |
122,294 |
|
Recorded |
48.38% |
47.87% |
3.75% |
Discrepancy |
- |
5.34% |
-5.36% |
0.02% |
8,375 |
(4,997) |
65 |
|
7- Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
|
True Vote |
|
Margin |
True Returning Voter Mix |
|
||
|
|
Dem |
Rep |
Dem |
Rep |
Error |
DNV |
Dem |
Rep |
Other |
|
2008 |
52.9% |
45.6% |
58.1% |
40.3% |
-10.5% |
12.4% |
46.9% |
39.5% |
1% |
|
2004 |
48.3% |
50.7% |
53.6% |
45.4% |
-10.6% |
17.9% |
41.3% |
37.7% |
3% |
|
2000 |
48.4% |
47.9% |
50.3% |
46.0% |
-3.9% |
13.6% |
46.1% |
32.0% |
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1996 |
49.2% |
40.7% |
53.4% |
37.1% |
-7.8% |
9.4% |
46.2% |
27.9% |
17% |
|
1992 |
43.0% |
37.4% |
50.9% |
30.8% |
-14.6% |
16.4% |
41.5% |
41.2% |
1% |
|
1988 |
45.6% |
53.4% |
49.6% |
49.3% |
-8.1% |
11.0% |
37.5% |
50.9% |
1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1984 |
40.6% |
58.8% |
42.1% |
57.2% |
-3.1% |
17.6% |
35.2% |
40.3% |
7% |
|
1980 |
41.0% |
50.7% |
42.7% |
48.9% |
-3.5% |
16.8% |
44.1% |
37.6% |
1% |
|
1976 |
50.1% |
48.0% |
53.0% |
45.2% |
-5.7% |
11.7% |
35.7% |
50.0% |
3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1972 |
36.2% |
60.7% |
40.4% |
56.6% |
-8.2% |
19.5% |
36.5% |
33.7% |
10% |
|
1968 |
42.9% |
43.6% |
45.3% |
41.9% |
-4.1% |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Avg |
45.3% |
48.9% |
49.0% |
45.3% |
-7.3% |
14.6% |
41.1% |
39.1% |
5.2% |
8- 1968-2008 Final National Exit Poll – forced to match the
recorded vote
|
|
Recorded |
|
Final NEP Mix |
|
|
Previous
election voter turnout required to match recorded vote |
|||
|
|
Dem |
Rep |
DNV |
Dem |
Rep |
Other |
Dem |
Rep |
Other |
|
2008 |
52.9% |
45.6% |
13% |
37% |
46% |
4% |
87% |
103% |
451% |
|
2004 |
48.3% |
50.7% |
17% |
37% |
43% |
3% |
93% |
110% |
98% |
|
2000 |
48.4% |
47.9% |
18% |
41% |
33% |
8% |
96% |
93% |
92% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1996 |
49.2% |
40.7% |
13% |
38% |
31% |
18% |
86% |
80% |
80% |
|
1992 |
43.0% |
37.4% |
18% |
28% |
53% |
1% |
74% |
119% |
85% |
|
1988 |
45.6% |
53.4% |
8% |
33% |
58% |
1% |
85% |
103% |
93% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1984 |
40.6% |
58.8% |
16% |
34% |
44% |
6% |
93% |
98% |
81% |
|
1980 |
41.0% |
50.7% |
16% |
42% |
41% |
1% |
94% |
95% |
59% |
|
1976 |
50.1% |
48.0% |
15% |
30% |
53% |
3% |
91% |
96% |
89% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1972 |
36.2% |
60.7% |
11% |
35% |
44% |
10% |
92% |
113% |
83% |
|
1968 |
42.9% |
43.6% |
20% |
49% |
31% |
- |
93% |
99% |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Avg |
45.30% |
48.90% |
14.50% |
35.50% |
44.60% |
5.40% |
89% |
101% |
121% |
