2000-2008 Late Vote Anomalies

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Updated: Dec. 24, 2011

In the last 3 elections, the average Democratic late vote share was 7% higher than the vote share recorded on Election Day.

On Election Day 2000, 102.6 million votes were recorded; Gore led by 48.3-48.1% (50.1% of the 2-party vote).

Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late 2-party votes, an 11.0% increase in margin. There were 6 million uncounted votes.

On Election Day 2004, 116.7million votes were recorded; Bush led by 51.2-48.3%.

Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8 million late 2-party votes, a 10.4% increase in margin. There were 4 million uncounted votes.

On Election Day 2008, 121.21 million were recorded. Obama led by 63.44-56.13m (52.3-46.3%).

A total of 131.37 million votes were recorded. .Obama won by 69.46-59.94m (52.87-45.62%).

There were 10.16m votes recorded after Election Day. Obama led by 59.16-37.48%, a 7% increase in his Election Day share and 15% increase in margin.

It is logical to assume that the late votes were accurate because

1) They were cast using paper ballots, not on unverifiable DREs

2) Since the winner was known on Election Day, there was nothing to gain by manipulating late votes recorded after Election Day.

This analysis has been updated to include the 2008 state and national unadjusted exit polls. The exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote were far beyond the 1.2% exit poll margin of error. But the unadjusted state exit polls were generally very close to the late vote. The largest deviations were in states with only a few thousand late votes –as to be expected. Assuming that late votes are representative of the state electorate, they can be viewed as super exit polls with thousands more respondents than standard exit polls.

2008: The Final 10 million late recorded votes

Obama won the state exit poll aggregate by 58.0-40.5% - a close match to his 59.2% late recordded share. There were 83,000 exit poll respondents.

The National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) is a subset of the state exit polls. Obama won the unadjusted NEP by a 61-37% margin.

Obama had the identical 58.0% share in the True Vote Model.

The late vote closely matched the unadjusted exit poll in the following states:

New Jersey had 224,000 late recorded votes. Obama had 64.5% of the late votes and 63.8% in the exit poll.

Maryland had 277,000 late votes. Obama had 67.9% and 67.2% in the exit poll.

New York had 584,000 late votes. Obama had 70.7% and 71.5% in the exit poll.

Ohio had 500,000 late votes. Obama had 54.6% and 56.3% in the exit poll.

Florida had 405,000 late votes. Obama had 51.6% and 52.1% in the exit poll.

Illinois had 183,000 late votes. Obama had 68.9% and 66.3% in the exit poll.

Mississippi had 77,000 late votes. Obama had 47.5% and 48.4% in the exit poll.

Tennessee had 19,000 late votes. Obama had 49.7% and 47.7% in the exit poll.

South Carolina had 117,000 late votes. Obama had 49.1% and 47.6% in the exit poll.

Kansas had 32,000 late votes. Obama had 46.2% and 46.1% in the exit poll.

I

2004: The Final 5 Million Recorded Votes

There was a 12% difference in margin between the initial 116.2 million 2-party recorded vote (Bush 51.5-Kerry 48.5%) and the final 4.8m (Kerry 54.3-Bush 45.7%). This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m). This red flag indicates that since the election was decided at the 116m mark, election fraud was no longer necessary. Late votes (absentees, etc.) became irrelevant when Bush was declared the winner.  The media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes; they still quote that initial margin today. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 117m recorded votes.

Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.1-47.6% (76,000 respondents). He won the National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by 51.7-47.9%.

Assuming that Kerry's 53.0% share of the 5.0m late votes is representative of the 122.3m recorded total, his vote total is 64.8m. Adding his 75% share of the 3.4m documented uncounted votes brings his final total to 67.4m (53.5%). This is quite close to the True Vote Model which determined that he won by 53.6-45.1%. The model accounted for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded plus uncounted) , assuming 5% voter mortality and a 98% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am Composite NEP vote shares were used in the calculation.

There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the exit polls. For states which had more than 40k late votes, the correlation statistic was a much stronger 0.93, as one would expect.  

This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to the True Vote, namely:

1) the high correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares

2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares

3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late votes compared to initial  recorded votes

How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states. A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?

Not a single media pundit has ever noted the following:

1) Final state exit polls and a mathematically impossible National Exit poll were adjusted to match the recorded vote.

2) Unadjusted “pristine” state exit polls were close to the True Vote.

3) Final 5 million recorded votes were close to the True Vote.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/president.htm

See the US Election Atlas.

2008 Late Vote Timeline

(in millions of votes)

2008 Total Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other

11/4 121.21 63.44 56.13 1.64 52.34% 46.31% 1.35%
Late 2.93 1.73 1.16 0.03 59.17% 39.66% 1.17%

11/11 124.13 65.18 57.29 1.67 52.50% 46.15% 1.35%
Late 2.37 1.40 0.92 0.05 59.20% 38.73% 2.07%

11/12 126.50 66.58 58.20 1.72 52.63% 46.01% 1.36%
Late 0.75 0.45 0.28 0.02 60.38% 36.71% 2.91%

11/17 127.25 67.03 58.48 1.74 52.68% 45.96% 1.37%
Late 0.86 0.53 0.28 0.05 61.88% 32.54% 5.57%

11/21 128.11 67.56 58.76 1.79 52.74% 45.87% 1.40%
Late 1.09 0.59 0.45 0.06 53.65% 41.23% 5.11%

11/30 129.20 68.15 59.21 1.84 52.75% 45.83% 1.43%
Late 2.17 1.31 0.73 0.13 60.38% 33.50% 6.12%

12/18 131.37 69.457 59.935 1.978 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%

Late 10.163 6.013 3.809 0.342 59.16% 37.48% 3.36%

 
 
 
2008 Late Recorded Vote vs. Unadjusted Exit Poll
 
(sorted by Obama exit poll share)
 
 

Total Votes	131,370,177	69,457,159	59,935,404	1,977,614	52.87%	45.62%	1.51%
Election Day	121,207,153	63,444,462	56,126,680	1,636,011	52.34%	46.31%	1.35%
	Late recorded				Late recorded share			Change	Unadjusted Exit Poll			Unadjusted EP - Late Vote
Late Votes	10,163,024	6,012,697	3,808,724	341,603	59.16%	37.48%	3.36%	6.82%	58.06%	40.29%	1.66%	-1.10%	2.81%	-1.70%
All states	Total	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama	McCain	Other
D. C.	38,299	35,397	2,546	356	92.40%	6.60%	0.90%	0.00%	92.03%	6.37%	1.59%	-0.37%	-0.23%	0.69%
Connecticut	666,168	412,130	245,487	8,551	61.90%	36.90%	1.30%	2.10%	73.38%	23.96%	2.66%	11.48%	-12.94%	1.36%
New York	583,587	412,340	168,930	2,317	70.70%	28.90%	0.40%	8.50%	71.54%	27.34%	1.13%	0.84%	-1.56%	0.73%
Vermont	51,215	35,827	13,146	2,242	70.00%	25.70%	4.40%	3.00%	71.46%	26.45%	2.09%	1.46%	0.75%	-2.31%
Hawaii	410	283	120	7	69.00%	29.30%	1.70%	-2.80%	70.39%	27.56%	2.05%	1.39%	-1.74%	0.35%
Delaware	84	65	18	1	77.40%	21.40%	1.20%	15.40%	68.61%	30.87%	0.52%	-8.79%	9.47%	-0.68%
Rhode Island	608	418	172	18	68.80%	28.30%	3.00%	5.60%	67.47%	29.41%	3.12%	-1.33%	1.11%	0.12%
Maryland	277,296	188,357	84,752	4,187	67.90%	30.60%	1.50%	6.70%	67.20%	30.69%	2.11%	-0.70%	0.09%	0.61%
Massachusetts	38,029	18,176	4,853	15,000	47.80%	12.80%	39.40%	-14.20%	67.01%	29.60%	3.39%	19.21%	16.80%	-36.01%
California	3,227,380	1,966,458	1,162,758	98,164	60.90%	36.00%	3.00%	0.00%	67.00%	30.58%	2.43%	6.10%	-5.42%	-0.57%
Illinois	183,474	126,333	55,726	1,415	68.90%	30.40%	0.80%	7.20%	66.31%	32.40%	1.30%	-2.59%	2.00%	0.50%
New Jersey	224,461	144,760	69,110	10,591	64.50%	30.80%	4.70%	7.80%	63.84%	35.08%	1.07%	-0.66%	4.28%	-3.63%
Pennsylvania	169,363	85,680	64,058	19,625	50.60%	37.80%	11.60%	-4.00%	63.77%	35.32%	0.91%	13.17%	-2.48%	-10.69%
Wisconsin	17,764	6,737	4,212	6,815	37.90%	23.70%	38.40%	-18.40%	63.30%	35.72%	0.98%	25.40%	12.02%	-37.42%
Virginia	248,807	162,775	83,298	2,734	65.40%	33.50%	1.10%	13.70%	62.49%	36.66%	0.85%	-2.91%	3.16%	-0.25%
Michigan	120,644	105,474	11,986	3,184	87.40%	9.90%	2.60%	30.80%	62.21%	35.50%	2.29%	-25.19%	25.60%	-0.31%
Maine	57,082	32,126	23,632	1,324	56.30%	41.40%	2.30%	-1.50%	62.05%	35.45%	2.50%	5.75%	-5.95%	0.20%
Minnesota	1,646	1,152	463	31	70.00%	28.10%	1.90%	15.90%	61.86%	35.87%	2.27%	-8.14%	7.77%	0.37%
NewHampshire	95,872	47,937	43,596	4,339	50.00%	45.50%	4.50%	-4.80%	61.65%	37.09%	1.27%	11.65%	-8.41%	-3.23%
New Mexico	18,730	12,815	5,680	235	68.40%	30.30%	1.30%	11.80%	58.82%	39.54%	1.64%	-9.58%	9.24%	0.34%
Oregon	324,926	209,262	105,406	10,258	64.40%	32.40%	3.20%	9.30%	58.45%	38.59%	2.96%	-5.95%	6.19%	-0.24%
Washington	1,398,549	802,992	554,621	40,936	57.40%	39.70%	2.90%	0.00%	57.94%	38.20%	3.87%	0.54%	-1.50%	0.97%
Missouri	9,993	5,166	3,201	1,626	51.70%	32.00%	16.30%	2.50%	57.50%	41.40%	1.10%	5.80%	9.40%	-15.20%
Iowa	13,085	9,270	3,913	-98	70.80%	29.90%	-0.70%	17.10%	56.90%	41.18%	1.92%	-13.90%	11.28%	2.62%
Nevada	4,243	2,267	1,879	97	53.40%	44.30%	2.30%	-1.70%	56.34%	41.78%	1.88%	2.94%	-2.52%	-0.42%
Ohio	500,457	270,437	210,387	19,633	54.00%	42.00%	3.90%	2.90%	56.28%	42.04%	1.68%	2.28%	0.04%	-2.22%
Indiana	15,022	6,775	4,547	3,700	45.10%	30.30%	24.60%	-4.80%	55.66%	43.19%	1.16%	10.56%	12.89%	-23.44%
Montana	20,103	11,805	6,720	1,578	58.70%	33.40%	7.80%	12.00%	54.37%	43.96%	1.67%	-4.33%	10.56%	-6.13%
North Carolina	38,087	19,261	18,776	50	50.60%	49.30%	0.10%	0.90%	53.52%	45.84%	0.64%	2.92%	-3.46%	0.54%
Florida	404,638	208,867	173,071	22,700	51.60%	42.80%	5.60%	0.70%	52.09%	46.09%	1.82%	0.49%	3.29%	-3.78%
Alabama	8,103	1,969	2,805	3,329	24.30%	34.60%	41.10%	-14.50%	52.00%	46.97%	1.03%	27.70%	12.37%	-40.07%
Colorado	291,022	179,197	106,592	5,233	61.60%	36.60%	1.80%	9.00%	51.91%	46.09%	1.99%	-9.69%	9.49%	0.19%
Arizona	418,506	183,967	217,849	16,690	44.00%	52.10%	4.00%	-1.20%	51.42%	47.93%	0.65%	7.42%	-4.17%	-3.35%
Georgia	91,196	44,129	36,168	10,899	48.40%	39.70%	12.00%	1.50%	51.11%	48.69%	0.21%	2.71%	8.99%	-11.79%
Nebraska	31,474	17,130	13,314	1,030	54.40%	42.30%	3.30%	13.40%	49.24%	49.06%	1.70%	-5.16%	6.76%	-1.60%
Alaska	103,356	43,254	57,493	2,609	41.80%	55.60%	2.50%	5.80%	49.08%	47.49%	3.43%	7.28%	-8.11%	0.93%
South Dakota	102	47	55	0	46.10%	53.90%	0.00%	1.30%	48.72%	48.72%	2.56%	2.62%	-5.18%	2.56%
Mississippi	77,359	36,763	40,122	474	47.50%	51.90%	0.60%	4.80%	48.43%	51.09%	0.47%	0.93%	-0.81%	-0.13%
Tennessee	18,684	9,288	9,549	-153	49.70%	51.10%	-0.80%	7.90%	47.67%	50.29%	2.03%	-2.03%	-0.81%	2.83%
SouthCarolina	116,785	57,285	58,069	1,431	49.10%	49.70%	1.20%	4.40%	47.55%	51.42%	1.03%	-1.55%	1.72%	-0.17%
Kentucky	1,738	278	349	1,111	16.00%	20.10%	63.90%	-25.20%	46.81%	51.61%	1.58%	30.81%	31.51%	-62.32%
Texas	27,452	10,551	15,421	1,480	38.40%	56.20%	5.40%	-5.20%	46.22%	52.31%	1.48%	7.82%	-3.89%	-3.92%
Kansas	32,249	14,896	14,214	3,139	46.20%	44.10%	9.70%	4.80%	46.13%	52.63%	1.25%	-0.07%	8.53%	-8.45%
Arkansas	104,212	39,685	62,019	2,508	38.10%	59.50%	2.40%	-0.90%	46.00%	50.60%	3.40%	7.90%	-8.90%	1.00%
Louisiana	2,702	2,008	672	22	74.30%	24.90%	0.80%	34.40%	45.94%	52.98%	1.08%	-28.36%	28.08%	0.28%
West Virginia	7,063	2,815	4,074	174	39.90%	57.70%	2.50%	-2.70%	45.14%	53.13%	1.73%	5.24%	-4.57%	-0.77%
Idaho	5,679	1,553	1,651	2,475	27.30%	29.10%	43.60%	-8.70%	41.83%	55.95%	2.22%	14.53%	26.85%	-41.38%
Oklahoma	627	207	420	0	33.00%	67.00%	0.00%	-1.30%	40.62%	59.26%	0.12%	7.62%	-7.74%	0.12%
North Dakota	1,787	166	79	1,542	9.30%	4.40%	86.30%	-35.40%	38.88%	58.96%	2.16%	29.58%	54.56%	-84.14%
Wyoming	78	24	45	9	30.80%	57.70%	11.50%	-1.80%	34.06%	64.17%	1.77%	3.26%	6.47%	-9.73%
Utah	72,828	26,143	40,700	5,985	35.90%	55.90%	8.20%	1.80%	31.53%	63.78%	4.68%	-4.37%	7.88%	-3.52%

2004 Election Day vs. Late Vote

	Recorded				Election				Late				Initial	Late	Final	Initial	Late	Final	Late-
State	Total	Kerry	Bush	Other	DayTotal	Kerry	Bush	Other	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Kerry	Kerry	Kerry-2pty	Kerry-2pty	Kerry-2pty	Initial	State
AK	313	111	191	11	242	86	152	4	71	25	39	7	35.5%	35.2%	35.5%	36.1%	39.1%	36.8%	2.9%	AK
AL*	1,883	694	1,176	13	1,876	693	1,176	7	8	1	0	6	36.9%	12.5%	36.9%	37.1%	100.0%	37.1%	62.9%	AL*
AR	1,055	470	573	12	1,037	464	567	6	18	6	6	6	44.7%	33.3%	44.5%	45.0%	50.0%	45.1%	5.0%	AR
AZ	2,013	894	1,104	15	1,644	735	908	0	369	158	196	15	44.7%	42.8%	44.4%	44.7%	44.6%	44.7%	-0.1%	AZ
CA	12,420	6,745	5,510	165	9,831	5,427	4,403	0	2,589	1,318	1,106	165	55.2%	50.9%	54.3%	55.2%	54.4%	55.0%	-0.8%	CA
CO	2,130	1,002	1,101	27	2,018	950	1,056	12	112	52	45	15	47.1%	46.4%	47.0%	47.4%	53.6%	47.6%	6.3%	CO
CT	1,579	857	694	27	1,544	846	685	13	35	11	9	15	54.8%	31.4%	54.3%	55.3%	55.0%	55.3%	-0.3%	CT
DC*	228	203	21	3	226	203	21	1	2	0	0	2	89.8%	0.0%	89.0%	90.6%	na	90.6%		DC*
DE*	375	200	172	3	374	200	172	2	2	0	0	1	53.5%	0.0%	53.3%	53.8%	na	53.8%		DE*
FL	7,610	3,584	3,965	62	7,563	3,575	3,956	33	47	9	9	29	47.3%	19.1%	47.1%	47.5%	50.0%	47.5%	2.5%	FL
GA	3,302	1,366	1,914	21	3,235	1,345	1,890	0	67	21	24	21	41.6%	31.3%	41.4%	41.6%	46.7%	41.6%	5.1%	GA
HI*	429	232	194	3	425	231	194	0	4	0	0	3	54.4%	0.0%	54.1%	54.4%	na	54.5%		HI*
IA	1,507	742	752	13	1,486	733	747	6	21	9	5	7	49.3%	42.9%	49.2%	49.5%	64.3%	49.7%	14.8%	IA
ID*	598	181	409	8	589	181	408	0	9	0	1	8	30.7%	0.0%	30.3%	30.7%	0.0%	30.7%	-30.7%	ID*
IL	5,274	2,892	2,346	37	5,208	2,871	2,337	0	67	21	9	37	55.1%	31.3%	54.8%	55.1%	70.0%	55.2%	14.9%	IL
IN	2,468	969	1,479	20	2,435	961	1,474	0	33	8	5	20	39.5%	24.2%	39.3%	39.5%	61.5%	39.6%	22.1%	IN
KS	1,188	435	736	16	1,147	421	718	9	40	14	19	7	36.7%	35.0%	36.6%	37.0%	42.4%	37.1%	5.5%	KS
KY*	1,796	713	1,069	14	1,790	712	1,069	9	6	0	1	5	39.8%	0.0%	39.7%	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%		KY*
LA	1,943	820	1,102	21	1,928	819	1,102	7	15	1	0	14	42.5%	6.7%	42.2%	42.6%	100.0%	42.7%	57.4%	LA
MA	2,912	1,804	1,071	37	2,861	1,794	1,067	0	51	10	4	37	62.7%	19.6%	62.0%	62.7%	71.4%	62.7%	8.7%	MA
MD	2,387	1,334	1,025	27	2,186	1,224	952	11	200	111	73	17	56.0%	55.5%	55.9%	56.3%	60.3%	56.5%	4.1%	MD
ME*	741	397	330	14	734	395	330	8	7	1	0	5	53.8%	14.3%	53.6%	54.5%	100.0%	54.6%		ME*
MI	4,839	2,479	2,314	46	4,810	2,475	2,311	24	29	4	3	22	51.5%	13.8%	51.2%	51.7%	57.1%	51.7%	5.4%	MI
MN	2,828	1,445	1,347	37	2,807	1,444	1,345	19	21	1	2	18	51.4%	4.8%	51.1%	51.8%	33.3%	51.8%	-18.4%	MN
MO	2,731	1,259	1,456	16	2,707	1,254	1,453	0	25	5	3	16	46.3%	20.0%	46.1%	46.3%	62.5%	46.4%	16.2%	MO
MS	1,152	458	685	9	1,118	445	669	3	35	13	16	6	39.8%	37.1%	39.8%	39.9%	44.8%	40.1%	4.9%	MS
MT*	450	174	266	11	445	173	265	6	5	0	1	5	38.9%	0.0%	38.7%	39.5%	0.0%	39.5%	-39.5%	MT*
NC	3,501	1,526	1,961	14	3,395	1,484	1,911	0	106	42	50	14	43.7%	39.6%	43.6%	43.7%	45.7%	43.8%	1.9%	NC
ND*	313	111	197	5	310	111	196	4	2	0	1	1	35.8%	0.0%	35.5%	36.2%	0.0%	36.0%		ND*
NE	778	254	513	11	762	249	507	6	17	5	6	5	32.7%	29.4%	32.6%	32.9%	45.5%	33.1%	12.5%	NE
NH*	678	341	331	6	675	340	331	4	2	0	0	2	50.4%	0.0%	50.3%	50.7%	na	50.7%		NH*
NJ	3,612	1,911	1,670	30	3,405	1,799	1,587	19	206	112	83	12	52.8%	54.4%	52.9%	53.1%	57.4%	53.4%	4.3%	NJ
NM	756	371	377	8	742	365	373	4	14	6	4	4	49.2%	42.9%	49.1%	49.5%	60.0%	49.6%	10.5%	NM
NV	830	397	419	14	813	393	415	5	16	4	4	9	48.3%	25.0%	47.8%	48.6%	50.0%	48.7%	1.4%	NV
NY	7,391	4,314	2,963	114	6,892	3,993	2,796	104	499	321	167	11	57.9%	64.3%	58.4%	58.8%	65.8%	59.3%	7.0%	NY
OH	5,628	2,741	2,860	27	5,456	2,660	2,796	0	172	82	64	27	48.8%	47.7%	48.7%	48.8%	56.2%	48.9%	7.4%	OH
OK*	1,464	504	960	0	1,464	504	960	0	0	0	0	0	34.4%	na	34.4%	34.4%	na	34.4%		OK*
OR	1,837	943	867	27	1,714	891	823	0	123	52	44	27	52.0%	42.3%	51.3%	52.0%	54.2%	52.1%	2.2%	OR
PA	5,770	2,938	2,794	38	5,643	2,886	2,757	0	127	52	37	38	51.1%	40.9%	50.9%	51.1%	58.4%	51.3%	7.3%	PA
RI	437	260	169	8	413	247	162	4	24	12	7	4	59.8%	50.0%	59.5%	60.4%	63.2%	60.6%	2.8%	RI
SC	1,618	662	938	18	1,580	650	924	5	38	11	14	13	41.1%	28.9%	40.9%	41.3%	44.0%	41.4%	2.7%	SC
SD	388	149	233	6	386	149	233	4	2	0	0	2	38.6%	0.0%	38.4%	39.0%	na	39.0%		SD*
TN*	2,437	1,036	1,384	16	2,437	1,036	1,384	16	0	0	0	0	42.5%	na	42.5%	42.8%	na	42.8%		TN*
TX	7,411	2,833	4,527	51	7,344	2,826	4,518	0	67	7	8	51	38.5%	10.4%	38.2%	38.5%	46.7%	38.5%	8.2%	TX
UT	928	241	664	23	851	227	613	11	77	14	51	12	26.7%	18.2%	26.0%	27.0%	21.5%	26.6%	-5.5%	UT
VA	3,198	1,455	1,717	27	3,095	1,417	1,678	0	103	37	39	27	45.8%	35.9%	45.5%	45.8%	48.7%	45.9%	2.9%	VA
VT*	312	184	121	7	309	184	121	4	4	0	0	3	59.5%	0.0%	59.0%	60.3%	na	60.3%		VT*
WA	2,859	1,510	1,305	44	2,736	1,452	1,262	22	123	58	43	22	53.1%	47.2%	52.8%	53.5%	57.4%	53.6%	3.9%	WA
WI	2,997	1,490	1,478	29	2,982	1,489	1,477	16	15	1	1	13	49.9%	6.7%	49.7%	50.2%	50.0%	50.2%	-0.2%	WI
WV	756	327	424	6	744	322	418	4	12	4	6	2	43.3%	33.3%	43.3%	43.5%	40.0%	43.5%	-3.5%	WV
WY*	243	71	168	5	240	71	167	3	3	0	1	2	29.6%	0.0%	29.2%	29.8%	0.0%	29.7%	-29.8%	WY*

Final Recorded Vote

Bush              62,040,610       50.73%

Kerry             59,028,439       48.27%

Other              1,224,499        1.00%

Total            122,293,548        100%

2004 Total KERRY BUSH OTHER KERRY BUSH OTHER

ElecDay116.7 56.4 59.8 0.4 48.32% 51.24% 0.44%
2-pty 116.2 56.4 59.8 na 45.53% 51.57%

Late 5.6 2.6 2.2 0.8 46.90% 39.40% 13.70%
2-pty 4.8 2.6 2.2 na 54.20% 45.80%

Final 122.3 59.03 62.04 1.20 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
2-pty 121.07 59.03 62.04 na 48.76% 51.24%

 
2004 Election Day vs. Unadjusted Exit Poll

Total (000)	122,293	5,640	48.77%	48.69%	54.43%	5.74%	51.10%	-3.33%	2.4%
Kerry	Total	Late	Kerry	Election	Late		Unadj EP	Unadjusted-	Unadjusted-
State	Recorded	Votes	Final	Day	Share	Change	Kerry	Late	ElectionDay
VT*	312	4	60.3%	60.3%	48.7%	-11.6%	68.8%	20.1%	8.50%
WI	2997	15	50.2%	50.2%	36.3%	-13.9%	52.0%	15.7%	1.80%
ID*	598	9	30.7%	30.7%	15.4%	-15.3%	27.8%	12.4%	-2.90%
KY*	1796	6	40.0%	40.0%	30.2%	-9.8%	42.4%	12.2%	2.40%
UT	928	77	26.7%	27.1%	21.4%	-5.7%	31.5%	10.1%	4.40%
MN	2828	21	51.8%	51.8%	47.9%	-3.9%	56.3%	8.4%	4.50%
CT	1579	35	55.3%	55.3%	56.3%	1.0%	62.5%	6.2%	7.20%
AK	313	71	36.8%	36.2%	39.0%	2.8%	44.7%	5.7%	8.50%
WY*	243	3	29.7%	29.7%	23.8%	-5.9%	28.9%	5.1%	-0.80%
VA	3198	103	45.9%	45.8%	48.8%	3.0%	52.7%	3.9%	6.90%
SC	1618	38	41.4%	41.3%	45.1%	3.8%	47.8%	2.7%	6.50%
MT*	450	5	39.5%	39.5%	37.0%	-2.5%	39.3%	2.3%	-0.20%
SD	388	2	39.1%	39.1%	32.8%	-6.3%	35.1%	2.3%	-4.00%
NV	830	16	48.7%	48.7%	50.4%	1.8%	52.4%	2.0%	3.70%
OK*	1464	0	34.4%	34.4%	34.4%	0.0%	36.3%	1.9%	1.90%
AZ	2013	369	44.7%	44.7%	44.7%	-0.1%	46.3%	1.6%	1.60%
NJ	3612	206	53.4%	53.1%	57.6%	4.5%	59.1%	1.5%	6.00%
MS	1152	35	40.1%	40.0%	44.2%	4.3%	45.6%	1.4%	5.60%
WV	756	12	43.5%	43.6%	40.5%	-3.0%	41.7%	1.2%	-1.90%
NH*	678	2	50.7%	50.7%	55.8%	5.2%	56.7%	0.9%	6.00%
NC	3501	106	43.8%	43.7%	45.4%	1.6%	46.1%	0.7%	2.40%
RI	437	24	60.6%	60.5%	62.6%	2.1%	63.3%	0.7%	2.80%
FL	7610	47	47.5%	47.5%	50.5%	3.0%	50.8%	0.3%	3.30%
DC*	228	2	90.5%	90.5%	90.5%	0.0%	90.7%	0.2%	0.20%
CA	12420	2589	55.0%	55.2%	54.4%	-0.8%	53.9%	-0.5%	-1.30%
WA	2859	123	53.6%	53.5%	57.7%	4.2%	56.5%	-1.2%	3.00%
PA	5770	127	51.3%	51.1%	58.6%	7.5%	56.6%	-2.0%	5.50%
OH	5628	172	48.9%	48.7%	56.2%	7.4%	54.1%	-2.1%	5.40%
OR	1837	123	52.1%	52.0%	54.6%	2.6%	52.2%	-2.4%	0.20%
NY	7391	499	59.3%	58.8%	65.8%	7.0%	62.1%	-3.7%	3.30%
AR	1055	18	45.1%	45.0%	48.2%	3.2%	44.4%	-3.8%	-0.60%
TX	7411	67	38.5%	38.5%	45.3%	6.8%	41.5%	-3.8%	3.00%
DE*	375	2	53.8%	53.8%	67.3%	13.4%	63.3%	-4.0%	9.50%
CO	2130	112	47.6%	47.3%	53.6%	6.3%	49.3%	-4.3%	2.00%
GA	3302	67	41.6%	41.6%	46.2%	4.6%	41.8%	-4.4%	0.20%
MI	4839	29	51.7%	51.7%	58.4%	6.7%	53.9%	-4.5%	2.20%
MD	2387	200	56.6%	56.2%	60.3%	4.1%	54.8%	-5.5%	-1.40%
ND*	313	2	36.1%	36.1%	37.4%	1.3%	31.4%	-6.0%	-4.70%
MA	2912	51	62.7%	62.7%	71.5%	8.8%	64.7%	-6.8%	2.00%
NE	778	17	33.2%	33.0%	43.6%	10.6%	36.4%	-7.2%	3.40%
NM	756	14	49.6%	49.4%	61.4%	11.9%	53.9%	-7.5%	4.50%
KS	1188	40	37.1%	37.0%	42.7%	5.8%	34.2%	-8.5%	-2.80%
IA	1507	21	49.7%	49.5%	62.1%	12.6%	49.3%	-12.8%	-0.20%
MO	2731	25	46.4%	46.3%	63.8%	17.5%	50.4%	-13.4%	4.10%
IL	5274	67	55.2%	55.1%	70.3%	15.2%	56.0%	-14.3%	0.90%
TN*	2437	0	42.8%	42.8%	56.0%	13.2%	41.6%	-14.4%	-1.20%
HI*	429	4	54.4%	54.4%	82.6%	28.3%	61.3%	-21.3%	6.90%
IN	2468	33	39.6%	39.5%	62.0%	22.6%	39.5%	-22.5%	0.00%
AL*	1883	8	37.1%	37.1%	67.6%	30.6%	39.7%	-27.9%	2.60%
ME*	741	7	54.6%	54.5%	87.3%	33.0%	55.4%	-31.9%	0.90%
LA	1943	15	42.7%	42.6%	79.5%	36.9%	44.2%	-35.3%	1.60%

2000 Late Votes

2000 Total GORE BUSH OTHER GORE BUSH OTHER

ElecDay102.6 49.5 49.3 3.8 48.25% 48.05% 3.70%
2-pty 98.8 49.5 49.3 na 50.10% 49.90%

Late 2.8 1.5 1.2 0.10 53.60% 42.90% 3.50%
2-pty 2.7 1.5 1.2 na 55.56% 44.40%

Final 105.41 51.00 50.46 3.95 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
2-pty 101.46 51.00 50.46 na 50.27% 49.73%

New York Late Votes: 2000-2008

(in millions)

Gore won 74% of the 483,000 late votes but only 60% of the initial 6.3 million.

Kerry won 66% of the 499,000 late votes but only 58% of the initial 6.8 million. The unadjusted exit poll had Kerry at 64%.

Obama won 70.7% of the 584,000 late votes but only 62.2% of the initial 7.0 million.

Late Dem Share Initial Dem Share

2000 0.483 0.36 74% 6.3 3.78 60%

2004 0.499 0.33 66% 6.8 3.94 58%

2008