Why Obama’s True Vote Exceeds the Recorded Vote

 

TruthIsAll

 

May 19, 2008

 

This analysis will show that Obama is winning the primaries by more than the recorded margin. But it is not unexpected: the progressive candidate always does better in the polls than in the vote count. Here is a major red flag:  he does better in caucuses where votes are counted in full view than in the primaries where they are counted in secret. In Texas, Obama had a 47% share in the primary and 56% in the caucus.

 

Obama currently leads Clinton by 600,000 votes in the primaries (49.3-47.5%) and by 66-34% in caucuses.

If unadjusted exit polls (53.8-46.2%) reflect the true vote, he would be leading the primaries by 2.2 million votes.

And the 2.2m does not include his 2-1 advantage in caucus states.

 

Obama won the New Hampshire hand-counted precincts by 5.90% but lost the machine-counts by the same margin.

He won the final 10 NH pre-election polls by an average of 9%.

On Super Tuesday his exit poll share exceeded his vote share in 14 of 16 states (see table below).

 

Prior to March 4, when Operation Chaos began, Obama led by 50.1-45.7%. Since Mar.4, Clinton leads by 50.8-47.8%

 

The 2008 Primary and Caucus results just confirm the obvious:

When votes are counted in full view (as in caucuses) you can be confident that they will be counted accurately.

When ballots are hand-counted, you can be confident that they will be counted accurately.

When voters are exit-polled, you can be confident that the results will be close to the True Vote.

When ballots cannot be audited or there is no chain of custody or no hand-counted recount, you cannot be confident that the recorded vote is accurate. 

 

Caucuses

* IA only reports apportioned number of delegates

 

              Votes (000)   Vote share                              

Caucus        HRC    Obama  HRC    Obama                      

Total         162.8  317.8  33.9%  66.1%

 

AK            0.1    0.3    25.4%  74.6%                     

CO            38.6   79.3   32.7%  67.3%                     

IA*           0.74   0.94   43.9%  56.1%                     

KS            9.5    27.2   25.8%  74.2%                     

ME            1.4    2.1    40.2%  59.8%                     

 

MN            68.4   141.5  32.6%  67.4%                     

ND            6.9    11.6   37.4%  62.6%                     

NV            5.4    4.8    52.9%  47.1%                     

TX            18.6   23.9   43.8%  56.2%                     

WA            10.0   21.6   31.6%  68.4%                     

 

WY            3.1    4.5    40.9%  59.1%                     

Amer Samoa    0.2    0.1    57.4%  42.6%                     

                                                                                 

 

Popular Vote Count                          

                                                                                       

                                                 Obama                       Clinton

Popular Vote Total                 32,654,931    16,103,219  49.31%         15,506,754  47.49%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA          33,334,631    16,437,303  49.31%         15,730,616  47.19%

 

Popular Vote (w/FL)                34,398,723    16,679,433  48.49%         16,377,740  47.61%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA*         35,088,851    17,013,517  48.49%         16,601,602  47.31%

 

Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)           35,031,985    16,679,433  47.61%         16,706,049  47.69%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA          35,654,861    17,013,517  47.72%         16,929,911  47.48%

 

 

                                                                                                                                               

Montana             3-Jun                       -                           -          

South Dakota        3-Jun                       -                           -          

Puerto Rico         1-Jun                       -                           -          

Kentucky            20-May                      -                           -          

Oregon              20-May                      -                           -          

 

West Virginia       13-May         350,670       90,258       25.7%          234,813     67.0%

North Carolina      6-May          1,574,429     883,508      56.1%          656,284     41.7%

Indiana             6-May          1,276,261     630,925      49.4%          645,336     50.6%

Guam                3-May          4,521        2,264        50.1%          2,257       49.9%

Pennsylvania        22-Apr         2,307,759     1,046,822    45.4%          1,260,937   54.6%

 

Mississippi         11-Mar         433,834       265,502      61.2%          159,221     36.7%

Wyoming             8-Mar          8,759        5,378        61.4%          3,311       37.8%

Texas               4-Mar          2,874,069     1,362,476    47.4%          1,462,734   50.9%

Ohio                4-Mar          2,355,431     1,055,769    44.8%          1,259,620   53.5%

Rhode Island        4-Mar          186,503       75,316       40.4%          108,949     58.4%

Vermont             4-Mar          154,961       91,901       59.3%          59,806      38.6%

                                                                                         

Pre-March 4                                                                              

Wisconsin           19-Feb         1,113,049     646,851      58.1%          453,954     40.8%

Hawaii              19-Feb         37,257        28,347       76.1%          8,835       23.7%

Virginia            12-Feb         985,470       627,820      63.7%          349,766     35.5%

Maryland            12-Feb         877,592       532,665      60.7%          314,211     35.8%

Dist of Columbia    12-Feb         123,972       93,386       75.3%          29,470      23.8%

 

Democrats Abroad    12-Feb         23,108        15,214       65.8%          7,501       32.5%

Louisiana           9-Feb          384,470       220,632      57.4%          136,925     35.6%

Nebraska            9-Feb          38,571        26,126       67.7%          12,445      32.3%

Virgin Islands      9-Feb          1,970         1,772        89.9%          149         7.6%

California          5-Feb          5,063,195     2,186,662    43.2%          2,608,184   51.5%

 

New York            5-Feb          1,862,349     751,019      40.3%          1,068,496   57.4%

Illinois            5-Feb          2,037,091     1,318,234    64.7%          667,930     32.8%

New Jersey          5-Feb          1,141,118     501,372      43.9%          613,500     53.8%

Massachusetts       5-Feb          1,245,512     511,680      41.1%          705,185     56.6%

Georgia             5-Feb          1,060,793     704,247      66.4%          330,026     31.1%

 

Minnesota           5-Feb          214,100       142,109      66.4%          68,994      32.2%

Missouri            5-Feb          825,208       406,917      49.3%          395,185     47.9%

Tennessee           5-Feb          624,729       252,874      40.5%          336,245     53.8%

Colorado            5-Feb          120,397       80,113       66.5%          38,839      32.3%

Arizona             5-Feb          455,417       193,126      42.4%          229,501     50.4%

 

Alabama             5-Feb          536,279       300,319      56.0%          223,089     41.6%

Connecticut         5-Feb          355,477       179,742      50.6%          165,426     46.5%

Arkansas            5-Feb          313,913       82,476       26.3%          220,136     70.1%

Oklahoma            5-Feb          416,988       130,130      31.2%          228,480     54.8%

Kansas              5-Feb          36,707        27,172       74.0%          9,462       25.8%

 

New Mexico          5-Feb          148,817       71,396       48.0%          73,105      49.1%

Utah                5-Feb          131,389       74,538       56.7%          51,333      39.1%

Delaware            5-Feb          96,340        51,148       53.1%          40,760      42.3%

North Dakota        5-Feb          19,030        11,625       61.1%          6,948       36.5%

Idaho               5-Feb          21,236        16,880       79.5%          3,655       17.2%

 

Alaska              5-Feb          8,877         6,674        75.2%          2,194       24.7%

American Samoa      5-Feb          285           121          42.5%          163         57.2%

South Carolina      26-Jan         532,220       294,898      55.4%          140,990     26.5%

New Hampshire       8-Jan          285,064       104,815      36.8%          112,404     39.4%

                                                                                         

Total Pre_Mar 4                    21,137,987    10,593,100   50.11%         9,653,486   45.67%

Total Post_Mar 4                   11,527,198    5,510,119    47.80%         5,853,268   50.78%

                                                                                         

Grand Total                        32,665,185   16,103,219    49.30%        15,506,754   47.47%

Super Tuesday       5-Feb          16,735,246    8,000,574    47.81%         8,086,836   48.32%

                                                             

 

Exit Poll vs. Recorded Vote (21 Primaries)

 

Obama has an average 50.4-45.8% lead (4.6% margin) in the exit polls.

Clinton has an average 48.4-47.1% lead (1.3% margin) in the recorded vote.

The discrepancy in margin from exit poll to the vote is 5.8%.

 

The exit poll-to-vote shift was in favor of Clinton in 18 of the 21 states.

The 2.5% Exit Poll MoE was exceeded in 11 of the 18 states.

The margin discrepancy exceeded 13% in 5 states.

The probability that all of these discrepancies would be due to chance is as close to zero as you can get.

                                              

                                                           

                                                                                                             

                         


                          Recorded             Exit Poll            

                          Obama     Clinton     Obama     Clinton     WPD

               Total      49.3%     47.5%      53.8%      46.2%      -5.8%

                                     

               Average    47.1%     48.4%      50.4%      45.8%      -5.9%

                                                                    

Pennsylvania   22-Apr     45.3%     54.7%      52.0%      47.0%      -14.4%

Mississippi    11-Mar     60.8%     37.0%      58.6%      40.6%      +5.8%

Texas          4-Mar      47.4%     50.9%      49.0%      50.0%      -2.5%

Ohio           4-Mar      44.8%     55.2%      48.0%      51.0%      -7.4%

California     5-Feb      43.0%     51.6%      46.3%      49.6%      -5.3%

                                                                    

New York       5-Feb      40.3%     57.4%      42.2%      55.6%      -3.7%

Illinois       5-Feb      64.7%     32.8%      69.6%      29.1%      -8.6%

New Jersey     5-Feb      44.0%     53.9%      52.2%      47.0%      -15.1%

Massachusetts  5-Feb      41.1%     56.6%      49.8%      47.3%      -18.0%

Georgia        5-Feb      66.4%     31.1%      74.5%      25.5%      -13.7%

                                                                    

Missouri       5-Feb      49.3%     47.9%      49.8%      45.1%      -3.3%

Tennessee      5-Feb      40.4%     53.9%      41.1%      51.6%      -3.0%

Arizona        5-Feb      42.4%     50.4%      50.5%      44.8%      -13.7%

Alabama        5-Feb      56.0%     41.6%      59.6%      37.0%      -8.2%

Connecticut    5-Feb      50.6%     46.6%      52.2%      45.0%      -3.2%

                                                                    

Arkansas       5-Feb      26.3%     70.1%      25.5%      71.2%      +1.9%

Oklahoma       5-Feb      31.2%     54.8%      30.4%      60.5%      +6.5%

New Mexico     5-Feb      48.0%     49.1%      51.8%      45.6%      -7.3%

Utah           5-Feb      56.6%     39.2%      60.1%      39.9%      -2.8%

Delaware       5-Feb      53.2%     42.1%      55.6%      41.9%      -2.6%

New Hampshire  8-Jan      36.8%     39.4%      39.0%      36.0%      -5.6%


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Republican Share of Democratic Primary Vote: Pre vs. Post March 4 (Operation Chaos)

 

Final Exit Polls                                                          

Pre March 4

              Total Share          Share of Repub       Difference  

       Rep%   HRC    OB            HRC    OB            HRC    OB

AL     5%     42%    56%           52%    45%           10%    -11%

SC     4%     27%    53%           20%    37%           -7%    -16%

IL     6%     34%    65%           36%    60%           2%     -5%

MO     6%     49%    48%           21%    75%           -28%   27%

LA     5%     37%    56%           17%    53%           -20%   -3%

VA     7%     35%    64%           23%    72%           -12%   8%

WI     9%     40%    57%           28%    72%           -12%   15%

 

Avg    6%     38%    57%           28%    59%           -10%   2%

                                                             

Post March 4

OH     9%     54%    44%           49%    49%           -5%    5%

TX     9%     51%    47%           46%    53%           -5%    6%

MS     12%    38%    60%           75%    25%           37%    -35%

IN     10%    50.6%  49.4%         53%    47%           3%     -3%

NC     5%     42%    56%           61%    32%           19%    -24%

 

Avg    9%     47%    51%           57%    41%           10%    -10%