11/01 Final 2010 Midterms Forecast: RV/LV Polls and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

The 2010 House and Senate Forecast Models are based on a comprehensive analysis of Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls.

The LV Model predicts a 234-201 GOP House and a 50-48 Democratic Senate. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts a 233-202 GOP House and a 49-49 Senate. Electoral-vote.com has a 51-48-1 Democratic Senate and a 217-200 GOP House with 18 ties. But the registered voter (RV) projections tell a different story.

The Democrats lead the weighted average of 18 Senate RV polls by 8.5%. They lead the corresponding LV sub-samples by 0.9%.

The RV projections indicate a 53-45 Democratic Senate.

The GOP leads the latest 30 House Generic LV polls by 6.8%. They lead the latest 19 RV polls by just 0.7%.

The RV projections indicate a 221-214 Republican House.

The Democrats lead in the following Generic Ballot RV polls: Pew, ABC/WaPo, CBS/NYT, McClatchy/Marist, Newsweek, NBC

Both House and Senate models assume an even UVA split of the undecided 10%.

Pre-election (RV) polls interview registered voters. Likely voters are a sub-sample based on the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM). Media pundits and political sites such as realclearpolitics.com focus on LV polls during the final weeks of every election cycle while RV polls are phased out a month before the election.

Pollsters claim that LV polls are good predictors – and it’s partly true. Since the 2000 selection, LV polls have matched to the fraudulent recorded vote quite well.

But RV polls more closely matched the True Vote - before the miscounts.

Nov. 1, 2010		House and Senate Forecast Summary
Senate Simulation
(UVA - undecided voter allocation)
			Forecast Seats
Table 1			Dem	GOP
18 RV +19 LV (true vote)			52.9	45.1
37 LV (recorded vote)			49.7	48.3
Table 5
I. UVA: 50% Dem / 50% GOP
No fraud (true vote)			52.7	45.3
3% vote switch (recorded)			49.3	48.7
II. UVA: 60% Dem / 40% GOP
No fraud (true vote)			54.0	44.0
3% Vote switch (recorded)			50.8	47.2
Larry Sabato: Crystal Ball			49	49
Electoral-vote.com			51	48
House Generic Model
(UVA - undecided voter allocation)			Forecast Seats
			Dem	GOP
Table 6
Registered Voter (true vote)			214.1	220.9
Likely Voter (recorded vote)			200.8	234.2
Table 7
I. UVA: 50% Dem / 50% GOP
No fraud (true vote)			214.1	220.9
3% Vote switch (recorded)			200.9	234.1
II. UVA: 60% Dem / 40% GOP
No fraud (true vote)			218.7	216.3
3% Vote switch (recorded)			205.5	229.5
Larry Sabato-Crystal Ball			202	233
Electoral-vote.com			200	217	(18 ties)
Senate
		Average Poll Share				Proj. Share		Simulation		GOP
	Polls	Dem	GOP	Spread		Dem	GOP	Dem	GOP	Win
		%	%	%		%	%	Proj. Seats		Prob
Weighted Average
18 RV+19 LV (True)	37	45.2	44.6	0.6		50.3	49.7	52.9	45.1	0%
37 LV (Recorded)	37	43.5	48.1	(4.6)		47.7	52.3	49.7	48.3	13%
Deviation	-	1.7	(3.5)	5.2		2.6	(2.6)	3.2	(3.2)	-
CNN / Time
RV Wtd Avg (True)	18	49.2	40.6	8.5		54.3	45.7	11	7	-
LV Wtd (Recorded)	18	46.6	45.8	0.9		50.4	49.6	7	10
Deviation	-	2.5	(5.2)	7.7		3.8	(3.8)	4	(3)	-
RV Unwtd Avg	18	46.5	41.6	4.9		52.5	47.5	-	-	-
LV Unwtd Avg	18	45.0	46.2	(1.2)		49.4	50.6	-	-	-
Deviation	-	1.5	(4.6)	6.1		3.1	(3.1)	-	-	-
RV Wtd - LV Unwtd		4.2	(5.6)	9.7		4.9	(4.9)	-	-	-
LVCM Turnout
(50% of RV-LV)
Weighted Avg	18	47.9	43.2	4.7		52.4	47.6	9	7	-
Unweighted Avg	18	45.8	43.9	1.9		50.9	49.1	-	-	-
Deviation	-	2.1	(0.7)	2.8		1.4	(1.4)	2	0	-
Note: Deviations may be off slightly due to rounding
Senate Sensitivity Analysis
Undecided Voter Allocation, Fraud and Poll Type
		Undecided Voter Allocation to GOP
Simulation		40%		50%		60%
Scenario		Gain	Seats	Gain	Seats	Gain	Seats
No Fraud (True Vote)		3.0	44.0	4.3	45.3	5.6	46.6
Fraud: 3% Vote Switch		6.2	47.2	7.7	48.7	8.9	49.9
Deviation		3.2		3.5		3.3
Poll Type
RV (True)		2.9	43.9	4.1	45.1	5.7	46.7
LV (Recorded)		6.1	47.1	7.3	48.3	8.1	49.1
Deviation		3.1		3.2		2.4
House Generic
		Average Poll Share				Proj. Share		Proj. Seats		Win
10/3-10/31	Polls	Dem	GOP	Spread		Dem	GOP	Dem	GOP	Prob
		%	%	%		%	%
RV (True)	19	44.4	45.1	(0.7)		49.6	50.4	214	221	61%
LV (Recorded)	30	41.9	48.7	(6.8)		46.6	53.4	201	234	99%
Deviation	-	2.5	(3.6)	6.1		3.0	(3.0)	13	(13)	-
Total	49	42.9	47.3	(4.4)		47.8	52.2	206	229	94%
2010
Non-Rasmussen	156	43.2	45.8	(2.6)		48.7	51.3	210	225	78%
Rasmussen (LV)	41	37.2	45.4	(8.1)		45.9	54.1	198	237	100%
Deviation	-	6.0	0.4	5.6		2.8	(2.8)	12	(12)	-
Total	197	42.0	45.7	(3.7)		48.1	51.9	208	227	91%

The Fraud Component

Since 2000, likely voter polls have been quite accurate in predicting a bogus, fraudulent recorded vote while registered voter polls have proven to be superior estimates of voter intent. The recorded vote is the handiwork of maliciously programmed, unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators. It follows that a simple model of vote miscount is given by the following pre-election and exit poll discrepancies:

Pre-election:

Fraud factor = Registered voter (RV) projection – Likely voter (LV) projection (i.e. recorded vote)

Senate

Fraud factor = 3.9% = 54.3 – 50.4

Each additional 1% vote-switch results in a 1-seat gain for the GOP (Table 5).

House

Fraud factor = 3.0% = 53.3 – 50.3

Each additional 1% vote-switch results in a 4-seat gain for the GOP (Table 7).

Post-election:

Fraud factor = Unadjusted exit poll – Final exit poll (forced to matched the recorded vote)

(Note: the mainstream media (National Election Pool) did not release unadjusted or preliminary exit polls in 2008 and they won’t in 2010, either.

Pollsters and Pundits are Paid to Project the Recorded Vote – Not the True Vote

The media/pollster drumbeat of a “horse race” is largely based on the LV polls. The focus on LV polls conditions the public to expect a recorded vote which in fact will surely understate the True Democratic share. The pollsters discount the RV sample, fully expecting that their LV projections will be a close match to a fraudulent recorded vote - but they never mention the F-word. They know that votes are miscounted in every election. And so their final LV-based poll predictions are usually quite accurate. Pollsters are paid to predict the recorded vote - not the True Vote.

As Election Day approaches, the MSM gradually phases out RV polls for LV polls which lowball the projected Democratic vote share. And so the general public is prepared for the fraudulent recorded vote-counts that the MSM knows are coming.

Since 2000, LV poll projections have closely matched recorded vote shares while RV poll projections closely matched unadjusted and preliminary state and national exit polls. In each election, the final exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote. In 2004 and 2008, the Final National Exit Poll required impossible returning Bush voter turnout in order to match the recorded vote. Since pre-election LV poll predictions also matched the recorded vote, what can we conclude?

The media cites low Democratic enthusiasm in the 2010 midterms, but turnout will exceed the LV sub-sample. Unfortunately, most pollsters won’t provide RV samples in the two weeks prior to the election. The media will gush on how close the final LV predictions came to the vote but ignore the real reason: systemic election fraud.

Mainstream media pollsters and pundits and liberal websites dare not mention the F-word. But why should they when only a few Democratic politicians will even discuss election fraud? But very few are aware just how massive the theft was in 2004. They are quick to concede without calling for recounts. Al Franken was an exception in 2008 but in 2004 he was dismissive of analysts who pointed to exit polls as indicators.

Election activists have been trying for ten years to get the mainstream and media to do a comprehensive investigation. The media would rather focus on bogus GOP claims of non-existent Acorn “voter fraud”.

Pollsters and media pundits are paid to project the official recorded vote. By utilizing LV polls, they anticipate the election fraud they know is coming; the LV polls are a proxy for the recorded vote. One would expect election forecasters to project both the recorded and True Vote – but they dare not mention the fraud factor. They ignore the fact that since the 2000 election, RV projections have closely matched the unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the True Vote). In the 2006 midterms and 2008 presidential elections, RV projections gave the Democrats a 7% higher margin than the corresponding final LVs.

The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM)

Generic polling data shows that Democrats comprise 58% of registered 2-party voters who do not pass the LVCM screen.

In 2004, there were 22 million voters who did not vote in 2000. Nearly 60% of newly registered voters were Democrats for Kerry. In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic tsunami gave them control of both houses. In 2008, there were approximately 15 million new voters of whom 70% voted for Obama. All pre-election polls interview registered voters. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the full Registered Voter (RV) sample. LV polls exclude most "new" registered voters – first-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election (Table 7a)

.

Most pollsters use the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM), a series of questions regarding past voting history, residential transience, intent to vote, etc. Since students, transients, low-income voters, immigrant new voters, etc. are much more likely to give "No" answers than established, wealthier, non-transient voters, Republicans are more likely to exceed the cutoff than Democrats. A respondent who indicates “yes” to four out of seven questions might be down-weighted to 50% compared to one who answers “yes” to all seven.

The LVCM assigns a weight of zero to all respondents falling below the cutoff, eliminating them from the sample. But these potential voters have more than a zero probability of voting.  The number of "Yes" answers required to qualify as a likely voter is set based on how the pollster wants the sample to turn out. The more Republicans the pollster wants in the sample, the more "Yes" answers are required. This serves to eliminate many Democrats and skews the sample to the GOP.

Projecting Voter Turnout

The key question is: will Democratic voter turnout overcome the systemic fraud component?

In 2006, before the National Exit Poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote, the Democrats had a 56.4% two-party share (13,251), matching the pre-election RV trend. But the share was forced to match a 53% recorded share in the Final NEP (13,251)."

In 2008 final pre-election RV polls indicated that Obama would win by 15%; the LV polls projected a 7% margin. But unadjusted and preliminary exit poll data has not and will not be made available. That would be nice. But thank goodness for the Final NEP. It’s another in a long line of Smoking Guns. When the Final’s impossible number of returning Bush and third-party phantom voters are replaced by a feasible mix (as it was in 2004), the True Vote analysis indicates that Obama had a 57-58% share and won by 22 million votes. The True Vote landslide was based on the same NEP vote shares that were necessary to match the recorded vote. But who is to say that the NEP vote shares were not adjusted (along with the returning voter mix) as well? After all, that is what happened in 2004.

In 2010, Generic RV and LV polls project that approximately 70% of registered voters will vote.

Democrats comprise 58% of registered 2-party voters who do not pass the LVCM screen.

Pre-election Kerry and Obama poll shares of unlikely voters closely matched their National Exit Poll shares of new voters.

In 2004, final pre-election polls indicated that Kerry had a 58% share of unlikely RVs.

The Preliminary 12:22am National Exit Poll showed that Kerry had a 57% share of first-time voters and others who did not vote in 2000.

In 2008, final pre-election polls gave Obama a 73% share of unlikely RVs.

The Final National Exit Poll indicated he had a 71% share of first-timers and others who did not vote in 2000

The projected turnout of registered voters is a simple ratio of the LV and RV poll samples,

Turnout = LV poll sample / RV poll sample

The Democratic two-party share of unlikely voters is the ratio of unlikely Dem RVs to the total of unlikely Dem and GOP RVs.

Dem share = Dem (RV-LV) / (Dem (RV-LV) + GOP (RV-LV))

Forecasting, Sensitivity Analysis and Win Probabilities

The Senate model employs simulation analysis of the latest RV and LV polls to forecast average GOP net gains, associated win probabilities and trends. The built-in sensitivity analysis displays the effects of various undecided voter allocation and vote-switching scenarios.

The House model provides a summary comparison of the latest RV and LV Generic polls, win probabilities and a moving average projection. As in the Senate model, the sensitivity analyses displays the effect of various undecided voter and vote-switching assumptions on forecast vote shares, House seats and win probabilities. The 2010 summary table illustrates the wide difference between Rasmussen and other pollsters. The 2006-2010 Generic Poll table provides a historical context.

Democrats always do better in the full RV sample than in the LV sub-sample. LV polls exclude millions of registered voters who actually vote - and most of them are Democrats. In addition, millions of votes are cast but never counted in every election - and most of them are Democratic as well. The good news is that proliferation of electronic voting has reduced the uncounted vote rate. The bad news is that votes can be switched, stuffed or dropped at the voting machine and/or the central tabulator where they are counted.

Polling websites generally display only Senate LV polls. CNN/Time has provided both RV and LV samples, but only LVs are listed at realclearpolitics.com. The Senate RV model forecast model is therefore a mix of RV and LV polls. Without a corresponding RV poll for every LV sub-sample, a comparable analysis is difficult.

Unlike the Senate, House Generic polls have been primarily RV samples (except for Rasmussen LVs). But RCP shifted to LV polls on Oct. 11.

Undecided Voters, Turnout and Final Exit Polls

In 1988, 11 million votes were uncounted; in 2000, 6 million; in 2004, 4 million; in 2006, 3 million.

In 2004, 2006 and 2008, projections based on final pre-election LV polls closely matched fraudulent recorded vote shares. Projections based on the final pre-election RV polls closely matched the unadjusted exit polls. Undecided voters typically break heavily for the challenger. In each of the last three elections, the Democrats were the challengers, but many pollsters did not allocate accordingly. Democratic voter turnout was underestimated by the pre-election LV polls (see 2004 Final Pre-election polls).

Final exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote count (i.e. the final pre-election LV polls). The underlying assumption is that the recorded vote is correct (i.e. zero fraud). In 2004 and 2008, the Final National Exit Polls required an impossible turnout of returning Bush voters (110% and 103%, respectivrely). In the 2004 Final (13660 respondents), the Bush vote shares were increased dramatically over the 12:22am Preliminary NEP (13047 respondents). The NEP media consortium of news outlets FOX, CNN, AP, ABC, CBS and NBC has suppressed the release of 2008 unadjusted state exit polls and unforced preliminary national exit polls. 

Once again, as in every election cycle, the media avoids the real issues. Martha Coakley won the hand-counts in Massachusetts for Ted Kennedy’s seat but lost to Scott Brown; Vic Rawl won the absentee vote but lost to unknown Alvin Greene in the South Carolina Democratic Senate primary; Mike Castle won the absentee ballots but lost to Christine O'Donnell in the Delaware GOP Senate primary. But there has not been a peep about any of this in the mainstream media. Apparently, we must just accept the conventional wisdom that even though the votes have vanished in cyberspace and can never be verified, they were not tampered with. The media lockdown is not limited to past stolen elections. The MSM prepares us for election fraud by listing final pre-election LV polls and ignoring RV polls.

Consider the historical recorded vote vs. the unadjusted exit polls and the True Vote Model:

1968-2008

The GOP leads the average presidential recorded vote by 49-45%.

The Democrats lead the True Vote by 49-45%.

There were 80 million net uncounted votes in the 11 elections. The vast majority (75-80%) were Democratic.

2000

Gore won the recorded vote by 51-50.5 million (48.4-47.9%). There were nearly six million uncounted votes.

He won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 49.4-46.9%. Gore’s True Vote margin: 50.4-46.2% (4.7 million).

2004

Bush won the recorded vote by 62-59 million (50.7-48.3%). Kerry led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-47%.

Kerry’s True margin: 53.5-45.5% (10 million)

2006

The Democrats recorded margin was 53-45%. They won the House by 230-205.

They led the final pre-election polls by 56-42% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by an identical 56-42%

Election fraud cost the Democrats 15-20 House seats.

2008

Obama led by 52-39% in the final RV polls and 50-43% in the LV polls. He won the recorded vote by 52.9-46.5%.

Obama’s True Vote margin: 58-40.5% (22 million).

Obama had 52.6% of 121 million recorded votes on Election Day.

Obama captured 59.2% of 10 million late (paper ballot) votes.

Obama’s True Vote: 58-40.5%

Democrats had 59% of the House (255-178).

Democrats had 60% of the Senate.

		Senate Forecast Model Detail
	Table 1								Base Case Assumptions
									Fraud	0.0%	Vote share deviation
		Senate	Current	Dem	GOP	Ind			MoE	4.0%	Poll margin of error
			100	57	41	2			UVA	50.0%	Undecided voter allocation to GOP
		Simulation		Forecast Seats (average of 200 election trials)					RV&LV	Dem	GOP
		Type	Polls	Dem	GOP	GOP Win Prob			Flip to	0	4
		RV&LV	37	52.9	45.1	0.0%			Lean	2	3
		LV	37	49.7	48.3	12.5%			Safe	9	17
									Tossup	6	0
		CNN/Time					Projection
		Type	Polls	Dem	GOP	Margin	Dem	GOP
		RV	18	49.2%	40.6%	8.5%	54.3%	45.7%
		LV	18	46.6%	45.8%	0.9%	50.4%	49.6%
		Latest Polls							Projected Seats
		Type	Polls	Dem	GOP	Margin	Dem	GOP	Dem	GOP
		RV&LV	37	45.2%	44.6%	0.6%	50.3%	49.7%	53	45
		LV	37	43.5%	48.1%	-4.6%	47.7%	52.3%	49	49
									GOP Win	Flip	< MoE
	Held by	* tossup	Poll	Dem	GOP	Margin	Dem	GOP	Prob	4	11
	R	AK	RV	22	36	(14)	43.0	57.0	100%
	R	AL		30	59	(29)	35.5	64.5	100%
	D	AR	RV	42	53	(11)	44.5	55.5	100%	GOP
	R	AZ		37	51	(14)	43.0	57.0	100%
	D	CA	RV	53	37	16	58.0	42.0	0%
	D	CO	RV	49	44	5	52.5	47.5	11%		CO
	D	CT	RV	56	37	19	59.5	40.5	0%
	D	DE	RV	61	32	29	64.5	35.5	0%
	R	FL	RV	31	42	(11)	44.5	55.5	100%
	R	GA		34	52	(18)	41.0	59.0	100%
	D	HI		68	20	48	74.0	26.0	0%
	R	IA		37	55	(18)	41.0	59.0	100%
	R	ID		27	64	(37)	31.5	68.5	100%
	D*	IL	RV	42	38	4	52.0	48.0	16%		IL
	D	IN		35	53	(18)	41.0	59.0	100%	GOP
	R	KS		27	67	(40)	30.0	70.0	100%
	R*	KY	RV	44	46	(2)	49.0	51.0	69%		KY
	R	LA		33	54	(21)	39.5	60.5	100%
	D	MD		54	38	16	58.0	42.0	0%
	R	MO	RV	39	50	(11)	44.5	55.5	100%
	R	NC		40	48	(8)	46.0	54.0	98%		NC
	D	ND		25	69	(44)	28.0	72.0	100%	GOP
	R	NH		44	51	(7)	46.5	53.5	96%		NH
	D*	NV	RV	43	39	4	52.0	48.0	16%		NV
	D	NY1	RV	60	33	27	63.5	36.5	0%
	D	NY2	RV	67	39	28	64.0	36.0	0%
	R	OH	RV	43	49	(6)	47.0	53.0	93%		OH
	R	OK		24	67	(43)	28.5	71.5	100%
	D	OR		54	37	17	58.5	41.5	0%
	D*	PA	RV	47	43	4	52.0	48.0	16%		PA
	R	SC		30	70	(40)	30.0	70.0	100%
	R	SD		30	70	(40)	30.0	70.0	100%
	R	UT		25	52	(27)	36.5	63.5	100%
	D*	WA	RV	48	44	4	52.0	48.0	16%		WA
	D	VT		64	29	35	67.5	32.5	0%
	D*	WI	RV	45	48	(3)	48.5	51.5	77%	GOP	WI
	D	WV	RV	45	38	7	53.5	46.5	4%		WV
	Table 1a	Registered vs. Likely Voters
		0.96	correlation ratio between RV and LV margins
		CNN/TIME
		18	RV full sample				LV sub-sample				50%	Turnout of RV-LV		Dem
		Polls	Dem	Rep	Margin		Dem	Rep	Margin		Dem	Rep	Margin	Prob
		Unwtd Avg	46.5	41.6	4.9		45.0	46.2	(1.2)		45.8	43.9	1.9	75%
		Wtd Avg	49.2	40.6	8.5		46.6	45.8	0.9		47.9	43.2	4.7	95%
		Win	11	7	4		7	10	(3)		9	7	2
		AK	22	36	(14)		23	37	(14)		22.5	36.5	(14.0)	0%
		AR	42	53	(11)		41	55	(14)		41.5	54.0	(12.5)	0%
		CA	53	37	16		50	45	5		51.5	41.0	10.5	100%
		CO	49	44	5		46	47	(1)		47.5	45.5	2.0	76%
		CT	56	37	19		54	44	10		55.0	40.5	14.5	100%
		DE	61	32	29		57	38	19		59.0	35.0	24.0	100%
		FL	31	42	(11)		32	46	(14)		31.5	44.0	(12.5)	0%
		IL	42	38	4		43	42	1		42.5	40.0	2.5	84%
		KY	44	46	(2)		43	50	(7)		43.5	48.0	(4.5)	5%
		MO	39	50	(11)		40	53	(13)		39.5	51.5	(12.0)	0%
		NV	43	39	4		45	49	(4)		44.0	44.0	0.0	50%
		NY1	60	33	27		55	41	14		57.5	37.0	20.5	100%
		NY2	67	39	28		57	41	16		62.0	40.0	22.0	100%
		OH	43	49	(6)		40	55	(15)		41.5	52.0	(10.5)	0%
		PA	47	43	4		45	49	(4)		46.0	46.0	0.0	50%
		WA	48	44	4		51	43	8		49.5	43.5	6.0	98%
		WI	45	48	(3)		44	52	(8)		44.5	50.0	(5.5)	3%
		WV	45	38	7		44	44	0		44.5	41.0	3.5	91%
	Table 1b	Sensitivity Analysis: RV vs. LV Turnout
		Effect of RV Turnout and Vote Switching
		18	CNN/Time RV & LV polls
		Vote	Turnout of Excluded Registered Voters (RV- LV)
		Switch	0%	25%	50%	75%	100%
		to GOP %
				Democratic Wins
		None	7	9	9	11	11
		1%	6	6	8	9	11
		2%	6	6	6	7	7
		3%	5	6	5	5	6
		4%	4	4	5	5	5
	Table 2	Probability Distribution of GOP Net Gains
		LV										Majority
		Gain	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
		Seats	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50	51
		Probability
		Exact	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	9.5%	20.0%	30.5%	26.5%	10.5%	2.0%
		At least	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.0%	89.5%	69.5%	39.0%	12.5%	2.0%
	Table 3	Projection Trend
			LV				RV&LV
					Simulation				Simulation
			Vote Share		GOP Gain		Vote Share		GOP Gain
			Dem	GOP	Seats		Dem	GOP	Seats
		26-Aug	49.02	50.98	6.2		50.48	49.52	4.4
		1-Sep	48.17	51.83	8.0		49.49	50.51	6.0
		10-Sep	47.94	52.06	7.3		49.57	50.43	5.3
		15-Sep	47.77	52.23	6.7		49.27	50.73	4.3
		26-Sep	47.65	52.35	6.4		49.45	50.55	4.2
		29-Sep	47.83	52.17	7.0		50.17	49.83	4.5
		2-Oct	48.09	51.91	7.0		50.47	49.53	4.6
		8-Oct	48.11	51.89	7.4		50.48	49.52	4.3
		15-Oct	48.14	51.86	7.3		50.48	49.52	4.3
		22-Oct	48.03	51.97	6.2		50.47	49.53	4.2
		25-Oct	47.81	52.19	6.7		50.44	49.56	4.2
		1-Nov	47.72	52.28	7.3		50.31	49.69	4.1
	Table 4	GOP Forecast Sensitivity to Undecided Voter Allocation and Poll Type
		GOP	Vote Share %		Seats (latest polls)			Seats (simulation)		Net Gain
		UVA	LV	RV&LV	LV	RV&LV		LV	RV&LV	LV	RV&LV
		40%	51.4	48.7	47	44		47.1	43.9	6.1	2.9
		45%	51.9	49.2	49	45		47.6	44.5	6.6	3.5
		50%	52.3	49.7	49	45		48.3	45.1	7.3	4.1
		55%	52.7	50.2	49	45		48.5	45.7	7.5	4.7
		60%	53.1	50.7	49	45		49.1	46.7	8.1	5.7
	Table 5	GOP Forecast Sensitivity to Undecided Voter Allocation and Vote Switch
		Undecided Voter Allocation and Vote-Switch increments applied to RV poll projection (zero fraud)
		Vote switch		Undecided Voter Allocation to GOP
		to GOP	40%	45%	50%	55%	60%
				GOP Net Gain
	RV True Vote	0%	3.0	3.6	4.3	4.9	5.6
		1%	3.9	4.7	5.2	6.1	6.7
		2%	5.0	5.8	6.5	7.3	8.0
	LV Recorded Vote	3%	6.2	7.0	7.7	8.5	8.9
		4%	7.3	8.1	8.7	9.4	9.8
				Total Seats
	RV True Vote	0%	44.0	44.6	45.3	45.9	46.6
		1%	44.9	45.7	46.2	47.1	47.7
		2%	46.0	46.8	47.5	48.3	49.0
	LV Recorded Vote	3%	47.2	48.0	48.7	49.5	49.9
		4%	48.3	49.1	49.7	50.4	50.8
		House Forecast Detail
							Projection UVA			Current	Seats
	Table 6	Latest		Average Poll			50.0%	50.0%		178	255	GOP
		Model	Polls	GOP	Dem	Spread	GOP	Dem	Margin	GOP	Dem	WinProb
		RV	19	45.1	44.4	0.7	50.4	49.6	0.7	221	214	61%
		LV	30	48.7	41.9	6.8	53.4	46.6	6.8	234	201	99%
		Total	49	47.3	42.9	4.4	52.2	47.8	4.4	229	206	94%
		2010	Polls	GOP	Dem	Spread	GOP	Dem	Margin	GOP	Dem	WinProb
		RV	106	45.2	43.8	1.3	50.7	49.3	1.3	222	213	68%
		LV	88	46.6	39.7	6.8	53.4	46.6	6.8	234	201	100%
		A	3	40.0	43.3	(3.3)	48.3	51.7	(3.3)	212	223	14%
		Total	197	45.7	42.0	3.7	51.9	48.1	3.7	227	208	91%
	Table 7	GOP Forecast Sensitivity
		Undecided Voter Allocation and Vote-Switch increments applied to RV poll projection (zero fraud)
		Vote		GOP Undecided Share						GOP Undecided Share
		Switch %	40%	45%	50%	55%	60%		40%	45%	50%	55%	60%
		to GOP
				GOP Seats						GOP House Win Probability
		No Fraud	216	219	221	223	226		31%	45%	61%	74%	85%
		1% switch	221	223	225	228	230		59%	73%	84%	92%	96%
		2% switch	225	227	230	232	234		83%	91%	96%	98%	99%
		3% switch	229	232	234	236	239		95%	98%	99%	100%	100%
	Table 7a	Likely Voter Cutoff Model
		Registered Voters				Likely Voters				LVCM - excluded RV
Date	Pollster	Sample	GOP %	Dem %		Sample	GOP %	Dem %		Turnout	GOP %	Dem %
10/31	Gallup	2027	48	44		1539	55	40		76%	31%	69%
10/30	Pew Research	2373	43	44		1809	48	42		76%	35%	65%
10/30	CNN/Opinion Research	921	49	43		542	52	42		59%	50%	50%
10/28	ABC News/Wash Post	1015	45	49		786	49	44		77%	32%	68%
10/25	McClatchy/Marist	807	41	47		461	46	46		57%	42%	58%
10/20	Newsweek	848	42	48		773	45	48		91%	19%	81%
10/18	Associated Press/GfK	1338	46	47		846	50	43		63%	42%	58%
10/13	FOX News	1200	41	39		687	48	39		57%	45%	55%
10/11	Reuters/Ipsos	854	46	44		720	48	44		84%	44%	56%
	Total	11383	44.7%	44.7%		8163	49.5%	42.6%		71.7%	39.5%	60.5%
	Table 7b	Democratic Projection Sensitivity
		Voter Turnout and Share of RV Cutoff					Voter Turnout and Share of Undecided Voters
		50%	Dem UVA				60%	Dem share of RV Cutoff
		Dem share	LV	Mix	RV		Dem share	LV	Mix	RV
		of RV Cutoff	70%	85%	100%		UVA	70%	85%	100%
			Recorded		True			Recorded		True
			Democratic Share					Democratic Share
		70%	46.6%	47.8%	49.0%		75%	48.5%	49.8%	51.0%
		60%	46.6%	47.6%	48.6%		60%	47.4%	48.5%	49.6%
		50%	46.6%	47.4%	48.3%		50%	46.6%	47.6%	48.6%
			Democratic Seats					Democratic Seats
		70%	204.3	209.5	214.8		75%	212.9	218.3	223.7
		60%	204.3	208.8	213.3		60%	207.7	212.6	217.4
		50%	204.3	208.0	211.8		50%	204.3	208.8	213.3
	Pollster	Date	Sample	Type	GOP	Dem	Spread	GOP	Dem	Margin	Seats	WinProb	GOP	Dem	Margin	Seats	Prob
	Table 8	Generic Ballot
	Polling Firm	Date	Sample	Type	GOP	Dem	Spread	GOP	Dem	Margin	Seats	WinProb	GOP	Dem	Margin	Seats	Prob
	Gallup	10/28 - 10/31	2027	RV	48	44	4	52.0	48.0	4.0	228	96%	53.2	46.8	6.4	233	82%
	Gallup	10/28 - 10/31	1539	LV	55	40	15	57.5	42.5	15.0	252	100%	53.4	46.6	6.8	234	83%
	Pew Research	10/27 - 10/30	2373	RV	43	44	(1)	49.5	50.5	(1.0)	217	31%	52.9	47.1	5.8	232	82%
	Pew Research	10/27 - 10/30	1809	LV	48	42	6	53.0	47.0	6.0	232	99%	52.9	47.1	5.8	232	83%
	CNN/Opinion Research	10/27 - 10/30	921	RV	49	43	6	53.0	47.0	6.0	232	97%	52.9	47.1	5.8	232	83%
	CNN/Opinion Research	10/27 - 10/30	542	LV	52	42	10	55.0	45.0	10.0	241	99%	52.3	47.7	4.6	229	73%
	ABC News/Wash Post	10/25 - 10/28	1015	RV	45	49	(4)	48.0	52.0	(4.0)	211	10%	51.8	48.2	3.6	227	69%
	ABC News/Wash Post	10/25 - 10/28	786	LV	49	44	5	52.5	47.5	5.0	230	92%	52.5	47.6	4.9	230	78%
	FOX News	10/26 - 10/28	1200	RV	46	37	9	54.5	45.5	9.0	239	100%	52.4	47.6	4.8	230	78%
	FOX News	10/26 - 10/28	764	LV	50	36	14	57.0	43.0	14.0	250	100%	52.4	47.6	4.8	230	78%
	Zogby	10/25 - 10/27	2067	LV	50	42	8	54.0	46.0	8.0	237	100%	51.4	48.6	2.8	225	69%
	Bloomberg	10/24 - 10/26	1000	LV	47	42	5	52.5	47.5	5.0	230	94%	50.9	49.2	1.7	223	61%
	CBS News/NY Times	10/21 - 10/26	1073	RV	45	46	(1)	49.5	50.5	(1.0)	217	37%	50.9	49.2	1.7	223	61%
	CBS News/NY Times	10/21 - 10/26	na	LV	49	43	6	53.0	47.0	6.0	232	98%	51.1	48.9	2.2	224	66%
	McClatchy/Marist	10/22 - 10/25	807	RV	41	47	(6)	47.0	53.0	(6.0)	206	4%	51.3	48.7	2.6	225	67%
	McClatchy/Marist	10/22 - 10/25	461	LV	46	46	0	50.0	50.0	0.0	219	50%	51.6	48.5	3.1	226	70%
	Rasmussen Reports	10/18 - 10/24	3500	LV	49	40	9	54.5	45.5	9.0	239	100%	51.9	48.1	3.8	228	75%
	Gallup	10/14 - 10/24	3000	RV	48	44	4	52.0	48.0	4.0	228	99%	51.7	48.3	3.4	227	74%
	Gallup	10/14 - 10/24	1989	LV	52	43	9	54.5	45.5	9.0	239	100%	51.9	48.1	3.8	228	74%
	Newsweek	10/20 - 10/21	848	RV	42	48	(6)	47.0	53.0	(6.0)	206	4%	51.6	48.4	3.2	226	73%
	Newsweek	10/20 - 10/21	773	LV	45	48	(3)	48.5	51.5	(3.0)	213	20%	52.5	47.6	4.9	230	83%
	Politico/GWU/Battleground	10/20 - 10/21	1000	LV	45	40	5	52.5	47.5	5.0	230	94%	52.5	47.6	4.9	230	83%
	Pew Research	10/13 - 10/18	1797	RV	46	42	4	52.0	48.0	4.0	228	96%	52.3	47.7	4.6	229	81%
	Pew Research	10/13 - 10/18	1354	LV	50	40	10	55.0	45.0	10.0	241	100%	52.6	47.5	5.1	230	81%
	Associated Press/GfK	10/13 - 10/18	1338	RV	46	47	(1)	49.5	50.5	(1.0)	217	36%	52.2	47.9	4.3	229	78%
	Associated Press/GfK	10/13 - 10/18	846	LV	50	43	7	53.5	46.5	7.0	235	98%	52.4	47.6	4.8	230	83%
	Democracy Corps (D)	10/16 - 10/18	801	LV	50	45	5	52.5	47.5	5.0	230	92%	52.1	48.0	4.1	228	79%
	Rasmussen Reports	10/11 - 10/17	3500	LV	47	39	8	54.0	46.0	8.0	237	100%	51.7	48.3	3.4	227	72%
	Gallup	10/11 - 10/17	3000	RV	47	44	3	51.5	48.5	3.0	226	95%	51.7	48.3	3.4	227	72%
	Gallup	10/07 - 10/17	1900	LV	53	42	11	55.5	44.5	11.0	243	100%	51.7	48.3	3.4	227	72%
	NBC	10/11 - 10/13	1000	RV	41	44	(3)	48.5	51.5	(3.0)	213	17%	51.8	48.3	3.5	227	72%
	FOX News	10/11 - 10/13	1200	RV	41	39	2	51.0	49.0	2.0	224	76%	51.9	48.1	3.8	228	76%
	FOX News	10/11 - 10/13	687	LV	48	39	9	54.5	45.5	9.0	239	99%	52.2	47.9	4.3	229	78%
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/7 - 10/11	854	RV	46	44	2	51.0	49.0	2.0	224	72%	52.1	47.9	4.2	229	78%
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/7 - 10/11	720	LV	48	44	4	52.0	48.0	4.0	228	86%	52.3	47.7	4.6	229	80%
	Zogby	10/7 - 10/10	2071	LV	45	45	0	50.0	50.0	0.0	219	50%	51.9	48.1	3.8	228	73%
	Bloomberg	10/7 - 10/10	721	LV	40	42	(2)	49.0	51.0	(2.0)	215	30%	52.2	47.8	4.4	229	77%
	Rasmussen Reports	10/4 - 10/10	3500	LV	47	39	8	54.0	46.0	8.0	237	100%	52.5	47.6	4.9	230	84%
	Gallup	9/30 - 10/10	3000	RV	47	44	3	51.5	48.5	3.0	226	95%	52.7	47.3	5.4	231	84%
	Gallup	9/30 - 10/10	1953	LV	53	41	12	56.0	44.0	12.0	246	100%	52.7	47.3	5.4	231	84%
	CNN/Opinion Research	10/5 - 10/7	938	RV	47	47	0	50.0	50.0	0.0	219	50%	51.9	48.2	3.7	227	74%
	CNN/Opinion Research	10/5 - 10/7	504	LV	52	45	7	53.5	46.5	7.0	235	94%	52.1	47.9	4.2	229	79%
	CBS News/NY Times	10/1- 10/5	na	LV	45	37	8	54.0	46.0	8.0	237	100%	51.8	48.3	3.5	227	74%
	Democracy Corps (D)	10/2 - 10/4	867	LV	49	43	6	53.0	47.0	6.0	232	96%	51.7	48.4	3.3	227	74%
	ABC News/Wash Post	9/30 - 10/3	879	RV	43	47	(4)	48.0	52.0	(4.0)	211	12%	51.8	48.2	3.6	227	74%
	ABC News/Wash Post	9/30 - 10/3	669	LV	49	43	6	53.0	47.0	6.0	232	94%	52.3	47.8	4.5	229	83%
	Rasmussen Reports	9/27 - 10/3	3500	LV	45	42	3	51.5	48.5	3.0	226	96%	51.9	48.1	3.8	228	77%
	Gallup	9/27 - 10/3	1882	LV	53	40	13	56.5	43.5	13.0	248	100%	51.7	48.3	3.4	227	70%
	Gallup	9/27 - 10/3	3000	RV	46	43	3	51.5	48.5	3.0	226	95%	51.6	48.5	3.1	226	70%
	Newsweek	9/29 - 9/30	902	RV	43	48	(5)	47.5	52.5	(5.0)	208	7%	51.7	48.3	3.4	227	71%
	FOX News	9/28 - 9/29	900	RV	44	39	5	52.5	47.5	5.0	230	93%	52.2	47.8	4.4	229	79%
	Gallup	9/20 - 9/26	3000	RV	46	46	0	50.0	50.0	0.0	219	50%	52.1	48.0	4.1	228	77%
	Rasmussen Reports	9/20 - 9/26	3500	LV	46	40	6	53.0	47.0	6.0	232	100%	52.2	47.9	4.3	229	79%
	CNN/Opinion Research	9/21 - 9/23	506	LV	53	44	9	54.5	45.5	9.0	239	98%	52.4	47.7	4.7	230	79%
	Politico/GWU/Battleground	9/19 - 9/22	1000	LV	47	42	5	52.5	47.5	5.0	230	94%	51.9	48.2	3.7	227	74%
	Reuters/Ipsos	9/16 - 9/19	953	RV	45	46	(1)	49.5	50.5	(1.0)	217	38%	51.6	48.4	3.2	226	69%
	Table 9	Pollster Averages
					Poll average			Projection			GOP
	Polling Firm	Polls	Sample	MoE	GOP	Dem	Spread	GOP	Dem	Margin	Seats	WinProb
	Rasmussen Reports	41	3500	1.7%	45.4	37.2	8.1	54.1	45.9	8.1	237	100%
	Gallup	41	1662	2.4%	47.3	44.5	2.8	51.4	48.6	2.8	225	87%
	FOX News	17	915	3.2%	43.7	38.5	5.2	52.6	47.4	5.2	231	94%
	CNN/Opinion Research	13	841	3.4%	49.2	45.0	4.2	52.1	47.9	4.2	229	89%
	PPP (D)	8	784	3.5%	44.3	42.5	1.8	50.9	49.1	1.8	223	69%
	Democracy Corps (D)	9	861	3.3%	46.8	44.1	2.7	51.3	48.7	2.7	225	78%
	ABC News/Wash Post	9	774	3.5%	47.0	45.3	1.7	50.8	49.2	1.7	223	68%
	Ipsos/McClatchy	4	913	3.2%	43.5	44.8	(1.3)	49.4	50.6	(1.3)	217	35%
	Quinnipiac	4	1977	2.2%	41.3	39.0	2.3	51.1	48.9	2.3	224	84%
	Pew Research	8	na	3.0%	45.3	43.6	1.6	50.8	49.2	1.6	223	70%
	USA Today/Gallup	3	970	3.1%	46.0	45.3	0.7	50.3	49.7	0.7	221	58%
	Newsweek	5	857	3.3%	43.6	46.8	(3.2)	48.4	51.6	(3.2)	212	17%
	Reuters/Ipsos	5	865	3.3%	46.2	44.6	1.6	50.8	49.2	1.6	223	68%
	GWU/Battleground	4	1000	3.1%	44.0	41.3	2.8	51.4	48.6	2.8	225	81%
	Time	2	915	3.2%	42.5	40.0	2.5	51.3	48.8	2.5	225	78%
	McLaughlin & Associates (R)	2	1000	3.1%	42.0	36.0	6.0	53.0	47.0	6.0	232	97%
	Associated Press/GfK	4	769	3.5%	49.5	44.5	5.0	52.5	47.5	5.0	230	92%
	POS (R)	2	850	3.4%	43.5	40.5	3.0	51.5	48.5	3.0	226	81%
	Bloomberg	3	865	3.3%	45.0	41.3	3.7	51.8	48.2	3.7	227	86%
	National Journal/FD	1	1200	2.8%	35.0	39.0	(4.0)	48.0	52.0	(4.0)	211	8%
	Washington Post	1	na	3.0%	44.0	48.0	(4.0)	48.0	52.0	(4.0)	211	10%
	Zogby	2	2069	2.2%	47.5	43.5	4.0	52.0	48.0	4.0	228	97%
	NPR	1	800	3.5%	44.0	39.0	5.0	52.5	47.5	5.0	230	92%
	McClatchy/Marist	3	694	3.7%	44.7	46.0	(1.3)	49.3	50.7	(1.3)	216	36%
	CBS News/NY Times	4	na	3.0%	44.8	41.0	3.8	51.9	48.1	3.8	228	89%
	Non-Rasmussen	156	1046	3.0%	45.8	43.2	2.6	51.3	48.7	2.6	225	78%
	Table 10		2006-2010 Registered and Likely Voter Poll Summary
					Average share			Projection			GOP
			Type	Polls	GOP	Dem	Spread	GOP	Dem	Margin	Seats
		2010	LV	88	46.6	39.7	6.8	53.4	46.6	6.8	234
			RV	106	45.2	43.8	1.3	50.7	49.3	1.3	222
			A	3	40.0	43.3	(3.3)	48.3	51.7	(3.3)	212
			Total	197	45.7	42.0	3.7	51.9	48.1	3.7	227
		2009	LV	60	41.0	39.6	1.4	50.9	49.1	1.7	223
			RV	26	38.3	44.3	(6.1)	46.3	53.7	(7.4)	203
			Total	88	40.1	41.1	(1.1)	49.3	50.7	(1.3)	216
		2008	LV	44	39.4	48.1	(8.7)	45.0	55.0	(9.9)	197
			RV	16	36.8	49.1	(12.3)	42.8	57.2	(14.3)	188
			Total	65	38.6	48.3	(9.7)	44.4	55.6	(11.1)	195
		2007	Total	147	37.8	49.4	(11.6)	43.3	56.7	(13.3)	190
		2006	Total	120	38.3	49.5	(11.5)	43.6	56.4	(12.8)	191

Reference: 2004-2008 Pre-election polls

Projections based on final pre-election LV polls closely matched fraudulent recorded vote shares.
Projections based on final pre-election RV polls closely matched the unadjusted exit polls.

The projected shares (in parenthesis) are based on the allocation of undecided voters (UVA).
Undecided voters typically break for the challenger. In each of the last three elections, the Democrats were the challenger.

Final exit polls are always "forced" to match the recorded vote (i.e. the final LV poll projections).

In 2004, the Final National Exit Poll required an impossible 110% turnout of returning Bush voters in order to match the fraudulent vote count.
But just “adjusting” the turnout weights was not enough. Bush vote shares in the 12:22am Preliminary NEP had to be inflated in the Final.

In 2008, the Final National Exit Poll required an impossible turnout of returning Bush voters (103%) to match the fraudulent vote count.

Oregon is the only state which mandates hand recounts of optical scanned ballots in randomly selected counties.

National pre-election polls

2004

Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3% (matched by the Final National Exit Poll).

The final 51 national pre-election polls listed by realclearpoltics.com were all likely voter (LV) polls.

The Oct.2 Newsweek poll was the latest RV poll listed. Kerry led by 47-45 (52-47 projected).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Bush led the final RCP 15-poll average by 48.9-47.4-1.0 (2.7% were undecided).

http://richardcharnin.com/2004RVLVPolls.htm

RCP projected that Bush would capture 50% of the undecided vote and win by 50.0-48.5, closely matching the recorded vote.

The undecided voter allocation was not justified. Most pollsters agree that the challenger virtually always gets a solid majority of late undecided votes.

Gallup projected that Kerry, the challenger, would win 88% of the undecided vote; Zogby and Harris had 75-80%.

The 2004 Election Model was based on the latest state and national polls.

Kerry led the average of 18 final national polls (9 RV and 9 LV) by 47.2-46.9%.

He was projected to win by 50.8-48.2% after 75% of undecided voters were allocated to him.

State pre-election polls

Bush led the unweighted average by 47.6-45.7%.

State polls must be weighted by voting population to determine the overall national share.

Kerry led the 2004 Election Model weighted aggregate by 47.9-46.9% (51.1-47.9% projected).

The 5000 trial Monte Carlo simulation gave him an average of 337 electoral votes.

http://richardcharnin.com/2004FinalStatePolling.htm

Battleground state pre-election polls

All final polls listed by RCP were likely voter.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

Bush led the final unweighted average by 47.3-46.9% (the weighted average was not given).

Kerry led the LV projection by 50.5-48.5% (after undecided voters were allocated)

Kerry did better in the RV polls

http://richardcharnin.com/2004RCPBattleground.htm

Gallup

28 RV and LV polls: FL 6, IA 4, MN 2, OH 6, PA 5, WI 5

LV: Bush led by 48.5-46.7 (49.5-49.4% projected).

RV: Kerry led by 47.1-46.4 (50.9-47.7% projected).

http://richardcharnin.com/2004GallupPre.htm

State and National Exit Polls

Kerry led the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate by 52-47%.

Kerry led the 12:22am National Exit Poll (13,047 respondents) by 50.8- 48.2%.

The 2004 election was stolen.

2006

The Democrats won the recorded vote by 52-46% (the Final National Exit Poll forced a match).

House Generic Congressional Ballot

In the 2006 Midterms, 120 Generic polls were listed at pollingreport.com (52 LV and 68 RV).

Of the final 20 pre-election polls displayed, eighteen (18) were LV. Only two (2) were RV.

RCP averaged the final eight (8) LV polls, but did not allocate undecided voters. The Democrats led by 52.1-40.6%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/house/us/generic_congressional_ballot-22.html#polls

If RCP had allocated 60% of undecided voters to the Democrats, it would have been a 56.4-43.6% landslide.

The Democrats won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,251 respondents) by a nearly identical 56.4-41.3%.

RCP chose not to include these final polls in the average:

CBS/NYT had the Democrats leading by 52-34 (LV), an 18% margin.

NBC/WSJ had the Democrats leading by 52-37(RV), a 15% margin.

A Democratic True Vote Landslide was denied in the 2006 midterms.

http://www.richardcharnin.com/LandslideDenied2008Rerun2006.htm

2008

Obama won the recorded vote by 52.9-45.6% (9.5 million votes).

RCP listed the final 15 LV polls, but not a single RV.

Obama led by 52.1-44.5 (53-45 projected), matching the recorded vote.

The final 4 RV polls from Gallup, Pew and ABC/WP were not listed by RCP.

Obama led the RV average by 52.7-39.8 (57.2-41.3 projected).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

The National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote using impossible returning voter weights.

A True Vote analysis based on the Final NEP with plausible weights indicates that Obama won by 22 million votes.

Unadjusted State and Preliminary National Exit polls have not been released.

http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionAnalysisLinks.htm

Conclusions

What can we conclude about RV and LV pre-election polls based on the factual evidence?

If you believe that Bush won fairly in 2004 and Democratic landslides were not denied in 2006 and 2008, then you must believe that the

a) Recorded vote matched the True Vote (i.e. there was no fraud)

b) Pre-election LV polls were a close match to the recorded vote

c) Pre-election RV polls overstated the Democratic True Vote

d) Unadjusted and preliminary exit polls overstated the Democratic True Vote

e) Final National Exit Polls were correct in forcing a match to the recorded vote by requiring millions more returning Bush voters than were alive

f) Elections were fraud-free even though the recorded vote counts were not verifiable

On the other hand, if you believe that Kerry won in 2004 and Democratic landslides were denied in 2006 and 2008, then you must also believe that the

a) Recorded vote was incorrect (i.e. the vote counts were fraudulent)

b) Pre-election LV polls underestimated the Democratic True Vote

c) Pre-election RV polls were a close match to the True Vote

d) Unadjusted and preliminary exit polls were a close match to the True Vote

e) Final National Exit Polls were impossible in matching to the recorded vote by requiring millions more returning Bush voters than were alive

f) Elections were fraudulent and resulted in a 3-5% reduction in the True Democratic share