11/01 Final 2010 Midterms Forecast: RV/LV
Polls and Election
Fraud
The
2010 House and Senate Forecast Models are based on a comprehensive analysis of
Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls.
The LV
Model predicts a 234-201 GOP House and a 50-48 Democratic
Senate. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball
predicts
a 233-202 GOP House and a 49-49 Senate. Electoral-vote.com
has a 51-48-1
Democratic Senate and a 217-200 GOP House with 18
ties. But the registered voter (RV) projections tell a different story.
The Democrats lead the weighted average of 18 Senate
RV polls by 8.5%. They lead the corresponding
The RV
projections indicate a 53-45 Democratic Senate.
The GOP leads the latest
30 House Generic
The RV
projections indicate a 221-214 Republican House.
The
Democrats lead in the following Generic Ballot RV polls: Pew, ABC/WaPo, CBS/NYT, McClatchy/Marist, Newsweek, NBC
Both House and Senate
models assume an even UVA split of
the undecided 10%.
Pre-election (RV) polls interview registered voters. Likely voters are a
sub-sample based on the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM).
Media pundits and political sites such as realclearpolitics.com focus on
Pollsters claim that
But RV polls more closely
matched the True Vote - before the miscounts.
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House
and Senate Forecast Summary |
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Senate Simulation |
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(UVA -
undecided voter allocation) |
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Forecast Seats |
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Table 1 |
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Dem |
GOP |
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18 RV +19 |
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52.9 |
45.1 |
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37 |
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49.7 |
48.3 |
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Table 5 |
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I. UVA: 50% Dem / 50%
GOP |
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No fraud (true vote) |
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52.7 |
45.3 |
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3% vote switch
(recorded) |
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49.3 |
48.7 |
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II. UVA: 60% Dem / 40%
GOP |
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No fraud (true vote) |
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54.0 |
44.0 |
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3% Vote switch
(recorded) |
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50.8 |
47.2 |
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Larry Sabato: Crystal Ball |
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49 |
49 |
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Electoral-vote.com |
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51 |
48 |
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House
Generic Model |
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(UVA -
undecided voter allocation) |
Forecast
Seats |
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Dem |
GOP |
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Table 6 |
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Registered Voter (true
vote) |
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214.1 |
220.9 |
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Likely Voter (recorded
vote) |
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200.8 |
234.2 |
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Table 7 |
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I. UVA: 50% Dem / 50%
GOP |
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No fraud (true vote) |
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214.1 |
220.9 |
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3% Vote switch
(recorded) |
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200.9 |
234.1 |
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II. UVA: 60% Dem / 40%
GOP |
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No fraud (true vote) |
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218.7 |
216.3 |
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3% Vote switch
(recorded) |
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205.5 |
229.5 |
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Larry Sabato-Crystal Ball |
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202 |
233 |
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Electoral-vote.com |
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200 |
217 |
(18 ties) |
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Senate |
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Average
Poll Share |
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Proj. Share |
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Simulation |
GOP |
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Polls |
Dem |
GOP |
Spread |
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Dem |
GOP |
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Dem |
GOP |
Win |
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% |
% |
% |
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% |
% |
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Proj. Seats |
Prob |
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Weighted
Average |
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18 RV+19 |
37 |
45.2 |
44.6 |
0.6 |
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50.3 |
49.7 |
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52.9 |
45.1 |
0% |
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37 |
37 |
43.5 |
48.1 |
(4.6) |
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47.7 |
52.3 |
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49.7 |
48.3 |
13% |
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Deviation |
- |
1.7 |
(3.5) |
5.2 |
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2.6 |
(2.6) |
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3.2 |
(3.2) |
- |
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CNN / Time |
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RV Wtd
Avg (True) |
18 |
49.2 |
40.6 |
8.5 |
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54.3 |
45.7 |
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11 |
7 |
- |
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18 |
46.6 |
45.8 |
0.9 |
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50.4 |
49.6 |
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7 |
10 |
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Deviation |
- |
2.5 |
(5.2) |
7.7 |
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3.8 |
(3.8) |
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4 |
(3) |
- |
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RV Unwtd
Avg |
18 |
46.5 |
41.6 |
4.9 |
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52.5 |
47.5 |
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- |
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- |
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18 |
45.0 |
46.2 |
(1.2) |
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49.4 |
50.6 |
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- |
- |
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Deviation |
- |
1.5 |
(4.6) |
6.1 |
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3.1 |
(3.1) |
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- |
- |
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RV Wtd
- |
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4.2 |
(5.6) |
9.7 |
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4.9 |
(4.9) |
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- |
- |
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LVCM Turnout |
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(50% of RV-LV) |
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Weighted Avg |
18 |
47.9 |
43.2 |
4.7 |
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52.4 |
47.6 |
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9 |
7 |
- |
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Unweighted Avg |
18 |
45.8 |
43.9 |
1.9 |
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50.9 |
49.1 |
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- |
- |
- |
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Deviation |
- |
2.1 |
(0.7) |
2.8 |
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1.4 |
(1.4) |
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2 |
0 |
- |
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Note: Deviations may be
off slightly due to rounding |
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Senate
Sensitivity Analysis |
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Undecided Voter
Allocation, Fraud and Poll Type |
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Undecided
Voter Allocation to GOP |
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Simulation |
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40% |
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50% |
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60% |
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Scenario |
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Gain |
Seats |
Gain |
Seats |
Gain |
Seats |
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No Fraud (True Vote) |
3.0 |
44.0 |
4.3 |
45.3 |
5.6 |
46.6 |
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Fraud: 3% Vote Switch |
6.2 |
47.2 |
7.7 |
48.7 |
8.9 |
49.9 |
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Deviation |
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3.2 |
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3.5 |
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3.3 |
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Poll
Type |
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RV (True) |
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2.9 |
43.9 |
4.1 |
45.1 |
5.7 |
46.7 |
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6.1 |
47.1 |
7.3 |
48.3 |
8.1 |
49.1 |
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Deviation |
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3.1 |
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3.2 |
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2.4 |
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House Generic |
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Average
Poll Share |
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Proj. Share |
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Proj. Seats |
Win |
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10/3-10/31 |
Polls |
Dem |
GOP |
Spread |
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Dem |
GOP |
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Dem |
GOP |
Prob |
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% |
% |
% |
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% |
% |
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RV (True) |
19 |
44.4 |
45.1 |
(0.7) |
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49.6 |
50.4 |
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214 |
221 |
61% |
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30 |
41.9 |
48.7 |
(6.8) |
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46.6 |
53.4 |
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201 |
234 |
99% |
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Deviation |
- |
2.5 |
(3.6) |
6.1 |
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3.0 |
(3.0) |
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13 |
(13) |
- |
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Total |
49 |
42.9 |
47.3 |
(4.4) |
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47.8 |
52.2 |
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206 |
229 |
94% |
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2010 |
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Non-Rasmussen |
156 |
43.2 |
45.8 |
(2.6) |
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48.7 |
51.3 |
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210 |
225 |
78% |
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Rasmussen ( |
41 |
37.2 |
45.4 |
(8.1) |
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45.9 |
54.1 |
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198 |
237 |
100% |
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Deviation |
- |
6.0 |
0.4 |
5.6 |
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2.8 |
(2.8) |
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12 |
(12) |
- |
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Total |
197 |
42.0 |
45.7 |
(3.7) |
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48.1 |
51.9 |
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208 |
227 |
91% |
The Fraud Component
Since 2000, likely voter polls have been quite accurate in
predicting a bogus, fraudulent recorded vote while registered voter polls have
proven to be superior estimates of voter intent. The recorded vote is the handiwork of maliciously
programmed, unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators. It follows that a simple model of vote
miscount is given by the following pre-election and exit poll discrepancies:
Pre-election:
Fraud factor = Registered voter (RV)
projection – Likely voter (
Senate
Fraud
factor = 3.9% = 54.3 – 50.4
Each
additional 1% vote-switch results in a 1-seat gain for the GOP (Table
5).
House
Fraud
factor = 3.0% = 53.3 – 50.3
Each
additional 1% vote-switch results in a 4-seat gain for the GOP (Table
7).
Post-election:
Fraud factor = Unadjusted exit poll
– Final exit poll (forced to matched the recorded vote)
(Note:
the mainstream media (National Election Pool) did not release unadjusted
or preliminary exit polls in 2008 and they won’t in 2010, either.
Pollsters and Pundits are Paid to Project the Recorded Vote – Not the
True Vote
The
media/pollster drumbeat of a “horse race” is largely based on the
As
Election Day approaches, the MSM gradually
phases out RV polls for
Since
2000,
The
media cites low Democratic enthusiasm in the 2010 midterms, but turnout will
exceed the
Mainstream
media pollsters and pundits and liberal websites dare not mention the F-word.
But why should they when only a few Democratic politicians will even discuss
election fraud? But very few are aware just how massive the theft was in 2004.
They are quick to concede without calling for recounts. Al Franken
was an exception in 2008 but in 2004 he was dismissive of analysts who pointed
to exit polls as indicators.
Election
activists have been trying for ten years to get the mainstream and media to do
a comprehensive investigation. The media would rather focus on bogus GOP claims
of non-existent Acorn “voter fraud”.
Pollsters and media
pundits are paid to project the official recorded vote. By utilizing
The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM)
Generic polling data shows that Democrats
comprise 58% of registered 2-party voters who do not pass the LVCM
screen.
In 2004, there were 22 million voters who did
not vote in 2000. Nearly 60% of newly registered voters were Democrats for
Kerry. In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic tsunami gave them control of both
houses. In 2008, there were approximately 15 million new voters of whom 70%
voted for Obama. All pre-election polls interview
registered voters. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the full Registered
Voter (RV) sample.
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Most pollsters use the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM),
a series of questions regarding past voting history, residential transience,
intent to vote, etc. Since students, transients, low-income voters, immigrant
new voters, etc. are much more likely to give "No" answers than
established, wealthier, non-transient voters, Republicans are more likely to
exceed the cutoff than Democrats. A respondent who indicates “yes” to four out
of seven questions might be down-weighted to 50% compared to one who answers
“yes” to all seven.
The
LVCM assigns a weight of zero to all respondents falling below the
cutoff, eliminating them from the sample. But
these potential voters have more than a zero probability of voting.
The number of "Yes" answers required to qualify as a likely voter is
set based on how the pollster wants the sample to turn out. The more
Republicans the pollster wants in the sample, the more "Yes" answers
are required. This serves to eliminate many Democrats and skews the sample to
the GOP.
Projecting Voter Turnout
The key
question is: will Democratic voter turnout overcome the systemic fraud
component?
In
2006, before the National
Exit Poll was adjusted to match the recorded
vote, the Democrats had a 56.4% two-party share (13,251), matching the
pre-election RV trend. But the share was forced to match a 53% recorded share in the Final NEP (13,251)."
In
2008 final pre-election RV polls indicated that Obama
would win by 15%; the
In
2010, Generic RV and
Democrats comprise 58% of registered 2-party
voters who do not pass the LVCM screen.
Pre-election Kerry and Obama poll shares of unlikely voters closely matched their
National Exit Poll shares of new voters.
In
2004, final pre-election polls indicated that Kerry had a 58% share of
unlikely RVs.
The
Preliminary
In
2008, final pre-election polls gave Obama a 73%
share of unlikely RVs.
The
Final National Exit Poll indicated he had a 71% share of first-timers
and others who did not vote in 2000
The
projected turnout of registered voters is a simple ratio of the
Turnout =
The
Democratic two-party share of unlikely voters is the ratio of unlikely
Dem RVs to the total of unlikely Dem and GOP RVs.
Dem share = Dem (RV-LV) / (Dem (RV-LV) + GOP (RV-LV))
Forecasting, Sensitivity Analysis and Win Probabilities
The
Senate model employs simulation analysis of the latest RV and
The
House model provides a summary comparison of the latest RV and LV Generic
polls, win probabilities and a moving average projection. As in the Senate
model, the sensitivity analyses displays the effect of various undecided voter and vote-switching
assumptions on forecast vote shares, House seats and win probabilities. The
2010 summary table illustrates the wide difference between Rasmussen and other
pollsters. The 2006-2010 Generic Poll table provides a historical context.
Democrats always do better in the full RV sample than in the
Polling
websites generally display only Senate LV polls. CNN/Time has provided both RV
and
Unlike
the Senate, House Generic polls have been primarily RV samples (except for
Rasmussen LVs). But RCP shifted to
Undecided Voters, Turnout and Final Exit Polls
In
1988, 11 million votes were uncounted; in 2000, 6 million; in 2004, 4 million;
in 2006, 3 million.
In 2004, 2006 and 2008,
projections based on final pre-election
Final exit polls are always
forced to match the
recorded vote count (i.e. the final pre-election
Once again, as in every election cycle, the media avoids the real issues.
Martha Coakley won the hand-counts in
Consider the historical
recorded vote vs. the unadjusted exit polls and the True Vote Model:
1968-2008
The
GOP leads the average presidential recorded vote by 49-45%.
The
Democrats lead the True Vote by 49-45%.
There were
80 million net uncounted votes in the 11 elections. The vast majority (75-80%)
were Democratic.
2000
Gore
won the recorded vote by 51-50.5 million (48.4-47.9%). There were
nearly six million uncounted votes.
He
won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 49.4-46.9%. Gore’s True
Vote margin: 50.4-46.2% (4.7 million).
2004
Bush
won the recorded vote by 62-59 million (50.7-48.3%). Kerry led
the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-47%.
Kerry’s
True margin: 53.5-45.5% (10 million)
2006
The
Democrats recorded margin was 53-45%. They won the House by 230-205.
They
led the final pre-election polls by 56-42% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll
by an identical 56-42%
Election
fraud cost the Democrats 15-20 House seats.
2008
Obama led by 52-39% in
the final RV polls and 50-43% in the
Obama’s True Vote margin: 58-40.5% (22 million).
Obama had 52.6% of 121
million recorded votes on Election Day.
Obama captured 59.2%
of 10
million late (paper ballot) votes.
Obama’s True Vote: 58-40.5%
Democrats
had 59% of the House (255-178).
Democrats
had 60% of the Senate.
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Senate
Forecast Model Detail |
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Table 1 |
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Base
Case Assumptions |
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Fraud |
0.0% |
Vote
share deviation |
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Senate |
Current |
Dem |
GOP |
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MoE |
4.0% |
Poll
margin of error |
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100 |
57 |
41 |
2 |
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UVA |
50.0% |
Undecided
voter allocation to GOP |
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Simulation |
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Forecast
Seats (average of 200 election trials) |
RV&LV |
Dem |
GOP |
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Type |
Polls |
Dem |
GOP |
GOP
Win Prob |
|
Flip
to |
0 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RV&LV |
37 |
52.9 |
45.1 |
0.0% |
|
|
Lean |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
37 |
49.7 |
48.3 |
12.5% |
|
|
Safe |
9 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tossup |
6 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CNN/Time |
|
|
|
|
Projection |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Type |
Polls |
Dem |
GOP |
Margin |
Dem |
GOP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RV |
18 |
49.2% |
40.6% |
8.5% |
54.3% |
45.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18 |
46.6% |
45.8% |
0.9% |
50.4% |
49.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Latest
Polls |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Projected
Seats |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Type |
Polls |
Dem |
GOP |
Margin |
Dem |
GOP |
Dem |
GOP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RV&LV |
37 |
45.2% |
44.6% |
0.6% |
50.3% |
49.7% |
53 |
45 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
37 |
43.5% |
48.1% |
-4.6% |
47.7% |
52.3% |
49 |
49 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GOP
Win |
Flip |
< MoE |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Held by |
*
tossup |
Poll |
Dem |
GOP |
Margin |
Dem |
GOP |
Prob |
4 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
AK |
RV |
22 |
36 |
(14) |
43.0 |
57.0 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
|
30 |
59 |
(29) |
35.5 |
64.5 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D |
RV |
42 |
53 |
(11) |
44.5 |
55.5 |
100% |
GOP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
|
37 |
51 |
(14) |
43.0 |
57.0 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D |
RV |
53 |
37 |
16 |
58.0 |
42.0 |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D |
RV |
49 |
44 |
5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
11% |
|
CO |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D |
RV |
56 |
37 |
19 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D |
RV |
61 |
32 |
29 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
RV |
31 |
42 |
(11) |
44.5 |
55.5 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
|
34 |
52 |
(18) |
41.0 |
59.0 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D |
|
68 |
20 |
48 |
74.0 |
26.0 |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
|
37 |
55 |
(18) |
41.0 |
59.0 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
|
27 |
64 |
(37) |
31.5 |
68.5 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D* |
RV |
42 |
38 |
4 |
52.0 |
48.0 |
16% |
|
IL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D |
|
35 |
53 |
(18) |
41.0 |
59.0 |
100% |
GOP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
|
27 |
67 |
(40) |
30.0 |
70.0 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R* |
RV |
44 |
46 |
(2) |
49.0 |
51.0 |
69% |
|
KY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
|
33 |
54 |
(21) |
39.5 |
60.5 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D |
|
54 |
38 |
16 |
58.0 |
42.0 |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
RV |
39 |
50 |
(11) |
44.5 |
55.5 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
|
40 |
48 |
(8) |
46.0 |
54.0 |
98% |
|
NC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D |
|
25 |
69 |
(44) |
28.0 |
72.0 |
100% |
GOP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
|
44 |
51 |
(7) |
46.5 |
53.5 |
96% |
|
NH |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D* |
RV |
43 |
39 |
4 |
52.0 |
48.0 |
16% |
|
NV |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D |
RV |
60 |
33 |
27 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D |
RV |
67 |
39 |
28 |
64.0 |
36.0 |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
RV |
43 |
49 |
(6) |
47.0 |
53.0 |
93% |
|
OH |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
|
24 |
67 |
(43) |
28.5 |
71.5 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D |
|
54 |
37 |
17 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D* |
RV |
47 |
43 |
4 |
52.0 |
48.0 |
16% |
|
PA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
SC |
|
30 |
70 |
(40) |
30.0 |
70.0 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
SD |
|
30 |
70 |
(40) |
30.0 |
70.0 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R |
UT |
|
25 |
52 |
(27) |
36.5 |
63.5 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D* |
RV |
48 |
44 |
4 |
52.0 |
48.0 |
16% |
|
WA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D |
VT |
|
64 |
29 |
35 |
67.5 |
32.5 |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D* |
RV |
45 |
48 |
(3) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
77% |
GOP |
WI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D |
RV |
45 |
38 |
7 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
4% |
|
WV |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 1a |
Registered vs. Likely
Voters |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
0.96 |
correlation
ratio between RV and |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CNN/TIME |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18 |
RV
full sample |
|
|
|
|
|
50% |
Turnout
of RV-LV |
Dem |
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
Polls |
Dem |
Rep |
Margin |
|
Dem |
Rep |
Margin |
|
Dem |
Rep |
Margin |
Prob |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unwtd Avg |
46.5 |
41.6 |
4.9 |
|
45.0 |
46.2 |
(1.2) |
|
45.8 |
43.9 |
1.9 |
75% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wtd Avg |
49.2 |
40.6 |
8.5 |
|
46.6 |
45.8 |
0.9 |
|
47.9 |
43.2 |
4.7 |
95% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Win |
11 |
7 |
4 |
|
7 |
10 |
(3) |
|
9 |
7 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AK |
22 |
36 |
(14) |
|
23 |
37 |
(14) |
|
22.5 |
36.5 |
(14.0) |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
AR |
42 |
53 |
(11) |
|
41 |
55 |
(14) |
|
41.5 |
54.0 |
(12.5) |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
CA |
53 |
37 |
16 |
|
50 |
45 |
5 |
|
51.5 |
41.0 |
10.5 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
CO |
49 |
44 |
5 |
|
46 |
47 |
(1) |
|
47.5 |
45.5 |
2.0 |
76% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
CT |
56 |
37 |
19 |
|
54 |
44 |
10 |
|
55.0 |
40.5 |
14.5 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DE |
61 |
32 |
29 |
|
57 |
38 |
19 |
|
59.0 |
35.0 |
24.0 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
FL |
31 |
42 |
(11) |
|
32 |
46 |
(14) |
|
31.5 |
44.0 |
(12.5) |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
IL |
42 |
38 |
4 |
|
43 |
42 |
1 |
|
42.5 |
40.0 |
2.5 |
84% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
KY |
44 |
46 |
(2) |
|
43 |
50 |
(7) |
|
43.5 |
48.0 |
(4.5) |
5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
MO |
39 |
50 |
(11) |
|
40 |
53 |
(13) |
|
39.5 |
51.5 |
(12.0) |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NV |
43 |
39 |
4 |
|
45 |
49 |
(4) |
|
44.0 |
44.0 |
0.0 |
50% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NY1 |
60 |
33 |
27 |
|
55 |
41 |
14 |
|
57.5 |
37.0 |
20.5 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NY2 |
67 |
39 |
28 |
|
57 |
41 |
16 |
|
62.0 |
40.0 |
22.0 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
OH |
43 |
49 |
(6) |
|
40 |
55 |
(15) |
|
41.5 |
52.0 |
(10.5) |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
PA |
47 |
43 |
4 |
|
45 |
49 |
(4) |
|
46.0 |
46.0 |
0.0 |
50% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
WA |
48 |
44 |
4 |
|
51 |
43 |
8 |
|
49.5 |
43.5 |
6.0 |
98% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
WI |
45 |
48 |
(3) |
|
44 |
52 |
(8) |
|
44.5 |
50.0 |
(5.5) |
3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
WV |
45 |
38 |
7 |
|
44 |
44 |
0 |
|
44.5 |
41.0 |
3.5 |
91% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 1b |
Sensitivity
Analysis: RV vs. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Effect of RV Turnout
and Vote Switching |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
18 |
CNN/Time
RV & |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vote |
Turnout
of Excluded Registered Voters (RV- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
Switch |
0% |
25% |
50% |
75% |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
to GOP
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democratic
Wins |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
None |
7 |
9 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1% |
6 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2% |
6 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3% |
5 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4% |
4 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 2 |
Probability
Distribution of GOP Net Gains |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Majority |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gain |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Seats |
41 |
42 |
43 |
44 |
45 |
46 |
47 |
48 |
49 |
50 |
51 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Probability |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Exact |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
1.0% |
9.5% |
20.0% |
30.5% |
26.5% |
10.5% |
2.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
At
least |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
99.0% |
89.5% |
69.5% |
39.0% |
12.5% |
2.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 3 |
Projection Trend |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RV&LV |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Simulation |
|
|
|
Simulation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vote Share |
GOP
Gain |
|
Vote
Share |
GOP
Gain |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
Dem |
GOP |
Seats |
|
Dem |
GOP |
Seats |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
26-Aug |
49.02 |
50.98 |
6.2 |
|
50.48 |
49.52 |
4.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1-Sep |
48.17 |
51.83 |
8.0 |
|
49.49 |
50.51 |
6.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10-Sep |
47.94 |
52.06 |
7.3 |
|
49.57 |
50.43 |
5.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15-Sep |
47.77 |
52.23 |
6.7 |
|
49.27 |
50.73 |
4.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
26-Sep |
47.65 |
52.35 |
6.4 |
|
49.45 |
50.55 |
4.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
29-Sep |
47.83 |
52.17 |
7.0 |
|
50.17 |
49.83 |
4.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2-Oct |
48.09 |
51.91 |
7.0 |
|
50.47 |
49.53 |
4.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8-Oct |
48.11 |
51.89 |
7.4 |
|
50.48 |
49.52 |
4.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15-Oct |
48.14 |
51.86 |
7.3 |
|
50.48 |
49.52 |
4.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
22-Oct |
48.03 |
51.97 |
6.2 |
|
50.47 |
49.53 |
4.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
25-Oct |
47.81 |
52.19 |
6.7 |
|
50.44 |
49.56 |
4.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1-Nov |
47.72 |
52.28 |
7.3 |
|
50.31 |
49.69 |
4.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 4 |
GOP Forecast
Sensitivity to Undecided Voter Allocation and Poll Type |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GOP |
Vote
Share % |
Seats
(latest polls) |
|
Seats
(simulation) |
Net
Gain |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
UVA |
|
RV&LV |
|
RV&LV |
|
|
RV&LV |
|
RV&LV |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
40% |
51.4 |
48.7 |
47 |
44 |
|
47.1 |
43.9 |
6.1 |
2.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
45% |
51.9 |
49.2 |
49 |
45 |
|
47.6 |
44.5 |
6.6 |
3.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
50% |
52.3 |
49.7 |
49 |
45 |
|
48.3 |
45.1 |
7.3 |
4.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
55% |
52.7 |
50.2 |
49 |
45 |
|
48.5 |
45.7 |
7.5 |
4.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
60% |
53.1 |
50.7 |
49 |
45 |
|
49.1 |
46.7 |
8.1 |
5.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 5 |
GOP Forecast
Sensitivity to Undecided Voter Allocation and Vote Switch |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
Undecided
Voter Allocation and Vote-Switch increments applied to RV poll projection
(zero fraud) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vote
switch |
|
Undecided
Voter Allocation to GOP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
to GOP |
40% |
45% |
50% |
55% |
60% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GOP
Net Gain |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RV
True Vote |
0% |
3.0 |
3.6 |
4.3 |
4.9 |
5.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1% |
3.9 |
4.7 |
5.2 |
6.1 |
6.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2% |
5.0 |
5.8 |
6.5 |
7.3 |
8.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3% |
6.2 |
7.0 |
7.7 |
8.5 |
8.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4% |
7.3 |
8.1 |
8.7 |
9.4 |
9.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
Seats |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RV
True Vote |
0% |
44.0 |
44.6 |
45.3 |
45.9 |
46.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1% |
44.9 |
45.7 |
46.2 |
47.1 |
47.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2% |
46.0 |
46.8 |
47.5 |
48.3 |
49.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3% |
47.2 |
48.0 |
48.7 |
49.5 |
49.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4% |
48.3 |
49.1 |
49.7 |
50.4 |
50.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
House Forecast Detail |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Projection
UVA |
|
Current |
Seats |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 6 |
Latest |
|
Average
Poll |
|
50.0% |
50.0% |
|
178 |
255 |
GOP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Model |
Polls |
GOP |
Dem |
Spread |
GOP |
Dem |
Margin |
GOP |
Dem |
WinProb |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RV |
19 |
45.1 |
44.4 |
0.7 |
50.4 |
49.6 |
0.7 |
221 |
214 |
61% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
30 |
48.7 |
41.9 |
6.8 |
53.4 |
46.6 |
6.8 |
234 |
201 |
99% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
49 |
47.3 |
42.9 |
4.4 |
52.2 |
47.8 |
4.4 |
229 |
206 |
94% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010 |
Polls |
GOP |
Dem |
Spread |
GOP |
Dem |
Margin |
GOP |
Dem |
WinProb |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RV |
106 |
45.2 |
43.8 |
1.3 |
50.7 |
49.3 |
1.3 |
222 |
213 |
68% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
88 |
46.6 |
39.7 |
6.8 |
53.4 |
46.6 |
6.8 |
234 |
201 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A |
3 |
40.0 |
43.3 |
(3.3) |
48.3 |
51.7 |
(3.3) |
212 |
223 |
14% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
197 |
45.7 |
42.0 |
3.7 |
51.9 |
48.1 |
3.7 |
227 |
208 |
91% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 7 |
GOP Forecast
Sensitivity |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Undecided
Voter Allocation and Vote-Switch increments applied to RV poll projection
(zero fraud) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vote |
|
GOP
Undecided Share |
|
|
|
GOP
Undecided Share |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
Switch
% |
40% |
45% |
50% |
55% |
60% |
|
40% |
45% |
50% |
55% |
60% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
to GOP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GOP
Seats |
|
|
|
|
GOP
House Win Probability |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
No
Fraud |
216 |
219 |
221 |
223 |
226 |
|
31% |
45% |
61% |
74% |
85% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1%
switch |
221 |
223 |
225 |
228 |
230 |
|
59% |
73% |
84% |
92% |
96% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2%
switch |
225 |
227 |
230 |
232 |
234 |
|
83% |
91% |
96% |
98% |
99% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3%
switch |
229 |
232 |
234 |
236 |
239 |
|
95% |
98% |
99% |
100% |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 7a |
Likely Voter Cutoff
Model |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
Registered
Voters |
|
|
Likely
Voters |
|
|
LVCM -
excluded RV |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Date |
Pollster |
Sample |
GOP % |
Dem % |
|
Sample |
GOP % |
Dem % |
|
Turnout |
GOP % |
Dem % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10/31 |
|
2027 |
48 |
44 |
|
1539 |
55 |
40 |
|
76% |
31% |
69% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10/30 |
Pew
Research |
2373 |
43 |
44 |
|
1809 |
48 |
42 |
|
76% |
35% |
65% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10/30 |
CNN/Opinion
Research |
921 |
49 |
43 |
|
542 |
52 |
42 |
|
59% |
50% |
50% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10/28 |
ABC News/Wash
Post |
1015 |
45 |
49 |
|
786 |
49 |
44 |
|
77% |
32% |
68% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10/25 |
McClatchy/Marist |
807 |
41 |
47 |
|
461 |
46 |
46 |
|
57% |
42% |
58% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10/20 |
Newsweek |
848 |
42 |
48 |
|
773 |
45 |
48 |
|
91% |
19% |
81% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10/18 |
Associated
Press/GfK |
1338 |
46 |
47 |
|
846 |
50 |
43 |
|
63% |
42% |
58% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10/13 |
FOX News |
1200 |
41 |
39 |
|
687 |
48 |
39 |
|
57% |
45% |
55% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10/11 |
Reuters/Ipsos |
854 |
46 |
44 |
|
720 |
48 |
44 |
|
84% |
44% |
56% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
11383 |
44.7% |
44.7% |
|
8163 |
49.5% |
42.6% |
|
71.7% |
39.5% |
60.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 7b |
Democratic Projection
Sensitivity |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Voter
Turnout and Share of RV Cutoff |
|
Voter
Turnout and Share of Undecided Voters |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
50% |
Dem
UVA |
|
|
|
60% |
Dem
share of RV Cutoff |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dem
share |
|
Mix |
RV |
|
Dem
share |
|
Mix |
RV |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
of RV
Cutoff |
70% |
85% |
100% |
|
UVA |
70% |
85% |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
|
True |
|
|
Recorded |
|
True |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democratic
Share |
|
|
|
Democratic
Share |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
70% |
46.6% |
47.8% |
49.0% |
|
75% |
48.5% |
49.8% |
51.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
60% |
46.6% |
47.6% |
48.6% |
|
60% |
47.4% |
48.5% |
49.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
50% |
46.6% |
47.4% |
48.3% |
|
50% |
46.6% |
47.6% |
48.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democratic
Seats |
|
|
|
Democratic
Seats |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
70% |
204.3 |
209.5 |
214.8 |
|
75% |
212.9 |
218.3 |
223.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
60% |
204.3 |
208.8 |
213.3 |
|
60% |
207.7 |
212.6 |
217.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
50% |
204.3 |
208.0 |
211.8 |
|
50% |
204.3 |
208.8 |
213.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pollster |
Date |
Sample |
Type |
GOP |
Dem |
Spread |
GOP |
Dem |
Margin |
Seats |
WinProb |
GOP |
Dem |
Margin |
Seats |
Prob |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 8 |
Generic Ballot |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Polling
Firm |
Date |
Sample |
Type |
GOP |
Dem |
Spread |
GOP |
Dem |
Margin |
Seats |
WinProb |
GOP |
Dem |
Margin |
Seats |
Prob |
|
|
|
10/28 -
10/31 |
2027 |
RV |
48 |
44 |
4 |
52.0 |
48.0 |
4.0 |
228 |
96% |
53.2 |
46.8 |
6.4 |
233 |
82% |
|
|
|
10/28 -
10/31 |
1539 |
|
55 |
40 |
15 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
15.0 |
252 |
100% |
53.4 |
46.6 |
6.8 |
234 |
83% |
|
|
Pew
Research |
10/27 -
10/30 |
2373 |
RV |
43 |
44 |
(1) |
49.5 |
50.5 |
(1.0) |
217 |
31% |
52.9 |
47.1 |
5.8 |
232 |
82% |
|
|
Pew
Research |
10/27 -
10/30 |
1809 |
|
48 |
42 |
6 |
53.0 |
47.0 |
6.0 |
232 |
99% |
52.9 |
47.1 |
5.8 |
232 |
83% |
|
|
CNN/Opinion
Research |
10/27 -
10/30 |
921 |
RV |
49 |
43 |
6 |
53.0 |
47.0 |
6.0 |
232 |
97% |
52.9 |
47.1 |
5.8 |
232 |
83% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CNN/Opinion
Research |
10/27 -
10/30 |
542 |
|
52 |
42 |
10 |
55.0 |
45.0 |
10.0 |
241 |
99% |
52.3 |
47.7 |
4.6 |
229 |
73% |
|
|
ABC
News/Wash Post |
10/25 -
10/28 |
1015 |
RV |
45 |
49 |
(4) |
48.0 |
52.0 |
(4.0) |
211 |
10% |
51.8 |
48.2 |
3.6 |
227 |
69% |
|
|
ABC
News/Wash Post |
10/25 -
10/28 |
786 |
|
49 |
44 |
5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
5.0 |
230 |
92% |
52.5 |
47.6 |
4.9 |
230 |
78% |
|
|
FOX News |
10/26 -
10/28 |
1200 |
RV |
46 |
37 |
9 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
9.0 |
239 |
100% |
52.4 |
47.6 |
4.8 |
230 |
78% |
|
|
FOX News |
10/26 -
10/28 |
764 |
|
50 |
36 |
14 |
57.0 |
43.0 |
14.0 |
250 |
100% |
52.4 |
47.6 |
4.8 |
230 |
78% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zogby |
10/25 -
10/27 |
2067 |
|
50 |
42 |
8 |
54.0 |
46.0 |
8.0 |
237 |
100% |
51.4 |
48.6 |
2.8 |
225 |
69% |
|
|
Bloomberg |
10/24 -
10/26 |
1000 |
|
47 |
42 |
5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
5.0 |
230 |
94% |
50.9 |
49.2 |
1.7 |
223 |
61% |
|
|
CBS
News/NY Times |
10/21 -
10/26 |
1073 |
RV |
45 |
46 |
(1) |
49.5 |
50.5 |
(1.0) |
217 |
37% |
50.9 |
49.2 |
1.7 |
223 |
61% |
|
|
CBS
News/NY Times |
10/21 -
10/26 |
na |
|
49 |
43 |
6 |
53.0 |
47.0 |
6.0 |
232 |
98% |
51.1 |
48.9 |
2.2 |
224 |
66% |
|
|
McClatchy/Marist |
10/22 -
10/25 |
807 |
RV |
41 |
47 |
(6) |
47.0 |
53.0 |
(6.0) |
206 |
4% |
51.3 |
48.7 |
2.6 |
225 |
67% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
McClatchy/Marist |
10/22 -
10/25 |
461 |
|
46 |
46 |
0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
0.0 |
219 |
50% |
51.6 |
48.5 |
3.1 |
226 |
70% |
|
|
Rasmussen
Reports |
10/18 -
10/24 |
3500 |
|
49 |
40 |
9 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
9.0 |
239 |
100% |
51.9 |
48.1 |
3.8 |
228 |
75% |
|
|
|
10/14 -
10/24 |
3000 |
RV |
48 |
44 |
4 |
52.0 |
48.0 |
4.0 |
228 |
99% |
51.7 |
48.3 |
3.4 |
227 |
74% |
|
|
|
10/14 -
10/24 |
1989 |
|
52 |
43 |
9 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
9.0 |
239 |
100% |
51.9 |
48.1 |
3.8 |
228 |
74% |
|
|
Newsweek |
10/20 -
10/21 |
848 |
RV |
42 |
48 |
(6) |
47.0 |
53.0 |
(6.0) |
206 |
4% |
51.6 |
48.4 |
3.2 |
226 |
73% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Newsweek |
10/20 -
10/21 |
773 |
|
45 |
48 |
(3) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
(3.0) |
213 |
20% |
52.5 |
47.6 |
4.9 |
230 |
83% |
|
|
Politico/GWU/Battleground |
10/20 -
10/21 |
1000 |
|
45 |
40 |
5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
5.0 |
230 |
94% |
52.5 |
47.6 |
4.9 |
230 |
83% |
|
|
Pew
Research |
10/13 -
10/18 |
1797 |
RV |
46 |
42 |
4 |
52.0 |
48.0 |
4.0 |
228 |
96% |
52.3 |
47.7 |
4.6 |
229 |
81% |
|
|
Pew
Research |
10/13 -
10/18 |
1354 |
|
50 |
40 |
10 |
55.0 |
45.0 |
10.0 |
241 |
100% |
52.6 |
47.5 |
5.1 |
230 |
81% |
|
|
Associated
Press/GfK |
10/13 -
10/18 |
1338 |
RV |
46 |
47 |
(1) |
49.5 |
50.5 |
(1.0) |
217 |
36% |
52.2 |
47.9 |
4.3 |
229 |
78% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Associated
Press/GfK |
10/13 -
10/18 |
846 |
|
50 |
43 |
7 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
7.0 |
235 |
98% |
52.4 |
47.6 |
4.8 |
230 |
83% |
|
|
Democracy
Corps (D) |
10/16 -
10/18 |
801 |
|
50 |
45 |
5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
5.0 |
230 |
92% |
52.1 |
48.0 |
4.1 |
228 |
79% |
|
|
Rasmussen
Reports |
10/11 -
10/17 |
3500 |
|
47 |
39 |
8 |
54.0 |
46.0 |
8.0 |
237 |
100% |
51.7 |
48.3 |
3.4 |
227 |
72% |
|
|
|
10/11 -
10/17 |
3000 |
RV |
47 |
44 |
3 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
3.0 |
226 |
95% |
51.7 |
48.3 |
3.4 |
227 |
72% |
|
|
|
10/07 -
10/17 |
1900 |
|
53 |
42 |
11 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
11.0 |
243 |
100% |
51.7 |
48.3 |
3.4 |
227 |
72% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NBC |
10/11 -
10/13 |
1000 |
RV |
41 |
44 |
(3) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
(3.0) |
213 |
17% |
51.8 |
48.3 |
3.5 |
227 |
72% |
|
|
FOX News |
10/11 -
10/13 |
1200 |
RV |
41 |
39 |
2 |
51.0 |
49.0 |
2.0 |
224 |
76% |
51.9 |
48.1 |
3.8 |
228 |
76% |
|
|
FOX News |
10/11 -
10/13 |
687 |
|
48 |
39 |
9 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
9.0 |
239 |
99% |
52.2 |
47.9 |
4.3 |
229 |
78% |
|
|
Reuters/Ipsos |
10/7 -
10/11 |
854 |
RV |
46 |
44 |
2 |
51.0 |
49.0 |
2.0 |
224 |
72% |
52.1 |
47.9 |
4.2 |
229 |
78% |
|
|
Reuters/Ipsos |
10/7 -
10/11 |
720 |
|
48 |
44 |
4 |
52.0 |
48.0 |
4.0 |
228 |
86% |
52.3 |
47.7 |
4.6 |
229 |
80% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zogby |
10/7 -
10/10 |
2071 |
|
45 |
45 |
0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
0.0 |
219 |
50% |
51.9 |
48.1 |
3.8 |
228 |
73% |
|
|
Bloomberg |
10/7 -
10/10 |
721 |
|
40 |
42 |
(2) |
49.0 |
51.0 |
(2.0) |
215 |
30% |
52.2 |
47.8 |
4.4 |
229 |
77% |
|
|
Rasmussen
Reports |
10/4 -
10/10 |
3500 |
|
47 |
39 |
8 |
54.0 |
46.0 |
8.0 |
237 |
100% |
52.5 |
47.6 |
4.9 |
230 |
84% |
|
|
|
9/30 -
10/10 |
3000 |
RV |
47 |
44 |
3 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
3.0 |
226 |
95% |
52.7 |
47.3 |
5.4 |
231 |
84% |
|
|
|
9/30 -
10/10 |
1953 |
|
53 |
41 |
12 |
56.0 |
44.0 |
12.0 |
246 |
100% |
52.7 |
47.3 |
5.4 |
231 |
84% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CNN/Opinion
Research |
10/5 -
10/7 |
938 |
RV |
47 |
47 |
0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
0.0 |
219 |
50% |
51.9 |
48.2 |
3.7 |
227 |
74% |
|
|
CNN/Opinion
Research |
10/5 -
10/7 |
504 |
|
52 |
45 |
7 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
7.0 |
235 |
94% |
52.1 |
47.9 |
4.2 |
229 |
79% |
|
|
CBS
News/NY Times |
10/1- 10/5 |
na |
|
45 |
37 |
8 |
54.0 |
46.0 |
8.0 |
237 |
100% |
51.8 |
48.3 |
3.5 |
227 |
74% |
|
|
Democracy
Corps (D) |
10/2 -
10/4 |
867 |
|
49 |
43 |
6 |
53.0 |
47.0 |
6.0 |
232 |
96% |
51.7 |
48.4 |
3.3 |
227 |
74% |
|
|
ABC
News/Wash Post |
9/30 -
10/3 |
879 |
RV |
43 |
47 |
(4) |
48.0 |
52.0 |
(4.0) |
211 |
12% |
51.8 |
48.2 |
3.6 |
227 |
74% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ABC
News/Wash Post |
9/30 -
10/3 |
669 |
|
49 |
43 |
6 |
53.0 |
47.0 |
6.0 |
232 |
94% |
52.3 |
47.8 |
4.5 |
229 |
83% |
|
|
Rasmussen
Reports |
9/27 -
10/3 |
3500 |
|
45 |
42 |
3 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
3.0 |
226 |
96% |
51.9 |
48.1 |
3.8 |
228 |
77% |
|
|
|
9/27 -
10/3 |
1882 |
|
53 |
40 |
13 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
13.0 |
248 |
100% |
51.7 |
48.3 |
3.4 |
227 |
70% |
|
|
|
9/27 -
10/3 |
3000 |
RV |
46 |
43 |
3 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
3.0 |
226 |
95% |
51.6 |
48.5 |
3.1 |
226 |
70% |
|
|
Newsweek |
9/29 -
9/30 |
902 |
RV |
43 |
48 |
(5) |
47.5 |
52.5 |
(5.0) |
208 |
7% |
51.7 |
48.3 |
3.4 |
227 |
71% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FOX News |
9/28 -
9/29 |
900 |
RV |
44 |
39 |
5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
5.0 |
230 |
93% |
52.2 |
47.8 |
4.4 |
229 |
79% |
|
|
|
9/20 -
9/26 |
3000 |
RV |
46 |
46 |
0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
0.0 |
219 |
50% |
52.1 |
48.0 |
4.1 |
228 |
77% |
|
|
Rasmussen
Reports |
9/20 -
9/26 |
3500 |
|
46 |
40 |
6 |
53.0 |
47.0 |
6.0 |
232 |
100% |
52.2 |
47.9 |
4.3 |
229 |
79% |
|
|
CNN/Opinion
Research |
9/21 -
9/23 |
506 |
|
53 |
44 |
9 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
9.0 |
239 |
98% |
52.4 |
47.7 |
4.7 |
230 |
79% |
|
|
Politico/GWU/Battleground |
9/19 -
9/22 |
1000 |
|
47 |
42 |
5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
5.0 |
230 |
94% |
51.9 |
48.2 |
3.7 |
227 |
74% |
|
|
Reuters/Ipsos |
9/16 -
9/19 |
953 |
RV |
45 |
46 |
(1) |
49.5 |
50.5 |
(1.0) |
217 |
38% |
51.6 |
48.4 |
3.2 |
226 |
69% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 9 |
Pollster Averages |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poll
average |
|
Projection |
|
GOP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
Polling
Firm |
Polls |
Sample |
MoE |
GOP |
Dem |
Spread |
GOP |
Dem |
Margin |
Seats |
WinProb |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rasmussen
Reports |
41 |
3500 |
1.7% |
45.4 |
37.2 |
8.1 |
54.1 |
45.9 |
8.1 |
237 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
41 |
1662 |
2.4% |
47.3 |
44.5 |
2.8 |
51.4 |
48.6 |
2.8 |
225 |
87% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FOX News |
17 |
915 |
3.2% |
43.7 |
38.5 |
5.2 |
52.6 |
47.4 |
5.2 |
231 |
94% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CNN/Opinion
Research |
13 |
841 |
3.4% |
49.2 |
45.0 |
4.2 |
52.1 |
47.9 |
4.2 |
229 |
89% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PPP (D) |
8 |
784 |
3.5% |
44.3 |
42.5 |
1.8 |
50.9 |
49.1 |
1.8 |
223 |
69% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democracy
Corps (D) |
9 |
861 |
3.3% |
46.8 |
44.1 |
2.7 |
51.3 |
48.7 |
2.7 |
225 |
78% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ABC
News/Wash Post |
9 |
774 |
3.5% |
47.0 |
45.3 |
1.7 |
50.8 |
49.2 |
1.7 |
223 |
68% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ipsos/McClatchy |
4 |
913 |
3.2% |
43.5 |
44.8 |
(1.3) |
49.4 |
50.6 |
(1.3) |
217 |
35% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quinnipiac |
4 |
1977 |
2.2% |
41.3 |
39.0 |
2.3 |
51.1 |
48.9 |
2.3 |
224 |
84% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pew
Research |
8 |
na |
3.0% |
45.3 |
43.6 |
1.6 |
50.8 |
49.2 |
1.6 |
223 |
70% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
970 |
3.1% |
46.0 |
45.3 |
0.7 |
50.3 |
49.7 |
0.7 |
221 |
58% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Newsweek |
5 |
857 |
3.3% |
43.6 |
46.8 |
(3.2) |
48.4 |
51.6 |
(3.2) |
212 |
17% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reuters/Ipsos |
5 |
865 |
3.3% |
46.2 |
44.6 |
1.6 |
50.8 |
49.2 |
1.6 |
223 |
68% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GWU/Battleground |
4 |
1000 |
3.1% |
44.0 |
41.3 |
2.8 |
51.4 |
48.6 |
2.8 |
225 |
81% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Time |
2 |
915 |
3.2% |
42.5 |
40.0 |
2.5 |
51.3 |
48.8 |
2.5 |
225 |
78% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
McLaughlin
& Associates (R) |
2 |
1000 |
3.1% |
42.0 |
36.0 |
6.0 |
53.0 |
47.0 |
6.0 |
232 |
97% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Associated
Press/GfK |
4 |
769 |
3.5% |
49.5 |
44.5 |
5.0 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
5.0 |
230 |
92% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
POS (R) |
2 |
850 |
3.4% |
43.5 |
40.5 |
3.0 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
3.0 |
226 |
81% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloomberg |
3 |
865 |
3.3% |
45.0 |
41.3 |
3.7 |
51.8 |
48.2 |
3.7 |
227 |
86% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
National
Journal/FD |
1 |
1200 |
2.8% |
35.0 |
39.0 |
(4.0) |
48.0 |
52.0 |
(4.0) |
211 |
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
na |
3.0% |
44.0 |
48.0 |
(4.0) |
48.0 |
52.0 |
(4.0) |
211 |
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zogby |
2 |
2069 |
2.2% |
47.5 |
43.5 |
4.0 |
52.0 |
48.0 |
4.0 |
228 |
97% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NPR |
1 |
800 |
3.5% |
44.0 |
39.0 |
5.0 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
5.0 |
230 |
92% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
McClatchy/Marist |
3 |
694 |
3.7% |
44.7 |
46.0 |
(1.3) |
49.3 |
50.7 |
(1.3) |
216 |
36% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CBS
News/NY Times |
4 |
na |
3.0% |
44.8 |
41.0 |
3.8 |
51.9 |
48.1 |
3.8 |
228 |
89% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Non-Rasmussen |
156 |
1046 |
3.0% |
45.8 |
43.2 |
2.6 |
51.3 |
48.7 |
2.6 |
225 |
78% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 10 |
|
2006-2010 Registered
and Likely Voter Poll Summary |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average
share |
|
Projection |
|
GOP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
Type |
Polls |
GOP |
Dem |
Spread |
GOP |
Dem |
Margin |
Seats |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010 |
|
88 |
46.6 |
39.7 |
6.8 |
53.4 |
46.6 |
6.8 |
234 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RV |
106 |
45.2 |
43.8 |
1.3 |
50.7 |
49.3 |
1.3 |
222 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A |
3 |
40.0 |
43.3 |
(3.3) |
48.3 |
51.7 |
(3.3) |
212 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
197 |
45.7 |
42.0 |
3.7 |
51.9 |
48.1 |
3.7 |
227 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2009 |
|
60 |
41.0 |
39.6 |
1.4 |
50.9 |
49.1 |
1.7 |
223 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RV |
26 |
38.3 |
44.3 |
(6.1) |
46.3 |
53.7 |
(7.4) |
203 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
88 |
40.1 |
41.1 |
(1.1) |
49.3 |
50.7 |
(1.3) |
216 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 |
|
44 |
39.4 |
48.1 |
(8.7) |
45.0 |
55.0 |
(9.9) |
197 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RV |
16 |
36.8 |
49.1 |
(12.3) |
42.8 |
57.2 |
(14.3) |
188 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
65 |
38.6 |
48.3 |
(9.7) |
44.4 |
55.6 |
(11.1) |
195 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 |
Total |
147 |
37.8 |
49.4 |
(11.6) |
43.3 |
56.7 |
(13.3) |
190 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2006 |
Total |
120 |
38.3 |
49.5 |
(11.5) |
43.6 |
56.4 |
(12.8) |
191 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reference: 2004-2008 Pre-election polls
Projections based on final pre-election
Projections based on final pre-election RV polls
closely matched the unadjusted exit polls.
The projected shares (in parenthesis) are based on
the allocation of undecided voters (UVA).
Undecided voters typically break for the
challenger. In each of the last three elections, the Democrats were the
challenger.
Final exit polls are
always "forced" to match the recorded vote (i.e. the final
In 2004, the Final National Exit Poll required an impossible
110% turnout of returning Bush voters in order to match the fraudulent vote
count.
But just “adjusting” the turnout weights was not enough. Bush vote shares in the
In 2008, the Final National Exit Poll required an impossible
turnout of returning Bush voters (103%) to match the fraudulent vote count.
National pre-election polls
2004
Bush won
the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3% (matched by the Final National Exit Poll).
The final 51 national pre-election polls listed by realclearpoltics.com were all
likely voter (
The Oct.2
Newsweek poll was the latest RV poll listed. Kerry led by 47-45 (52-47
projected).
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
Bush led the final RCP
15-poll average by 48.9-47.4-1.0 (2.7% were undecided).
http://richardcharnin.com/2004RVLVPolls.htm
RCP projected that Bush would capture
50% of the undecided vote and win by 50.0-48.5, closely matching the recorded
vote.
The undecided voter allocation was
not justified. Most pollsters agree that the challenger virtually always gets a
solid majority of late undecided votes.
Gallup projected that
Kerry, the challenger, would win 88% of the undecided vote; Zogby
and Harris had 75-80%.
The 2004
Election Model was based on the latest state and national polls.
Kerry led the average of 18 final national polls (9 RV and 9
He was projected to win by 50.8-48.2% after 75% of undecided voters were allocated to him.
State pre-election polls
Bush led the unweighted average by 47.6-45.7%.
State polls must be weighted by voting population to
determine the overall national share.
Kerry led the 2004
Election Model weighted aggregate by 47.9-46.9% (51.1-47.9% projected).
The 5000 trial
http://richardcharnin.com/2004FinalStatePolling.htm
Battleground state pre-election polls
All final polls listed by RCP
were likely voter.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html
Bush led the final unweighted average by 47.3-46.9% (the weighted average was not
given).
Kerry led the
Kerry did better in the RV polls
http://richardcharnin.com/2004RCPBattleground.htm
28 RV and
RV: Kerry led by 47.1-46.4 (50.9-47.7%
projected).
http://richardcharnin.com/2004GallupPre.htm
State and National Exit Polls
Kerry led the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate by 52-47%.
Kerry led the
The 2004 election was
stolen.
2006
The
Democrats won the recorded vote by 52-46% (the Final National Exit Poll forced
a match).
House Generic Congressional Ballot
In the 2006 Midterms, 120 Generic polls were listed at pollingreport.com (52
Of the final 20
pre-election polls displayed, eighteen
(18) were
RCP averaged the final eight (8)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/house/us/generic_congressional_ballot-22.html#polls
If RCP had allocated
60% of undecided voters to the Democrats, it would have been a 56.4-43.6%
landslide.
The Democrats won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,251
respondents) by a nearly identical
56.4-41.3%.
RCP chose not to include these final polls in
the average:
CBS/NYT had the Democrats leading by 52-34
(LV), an 18% margin.
NBC/WSJ
had the Democrats leading by 52-37(RV),
a 15% margin.
A Democratic True Vote
Landslide was denied in the 2006 midterms.
http://www.richardcharnin.com/LandslideDenied2008Rerun2006.htm
2008
Obama won
the recorded vote by 52.9-45.6% (9.5 million votes).
RCP listed the final 15 LV polls, but not a single RV.
Obama led by 52.1-44.5 (53-45 projected), matching the recorded vote.
The final 4 RV polls from
Obama led the RV average by 52.7-39.8
(57.2-41.3 projected).
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
The National Exit Poll forced
a match to the recorded vote
using impossible returning voter weights.
A True Vote analysis based on the Final NEP
with plausible weights indicates
that Obama won by 22 million votes.
http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionAnalysisLinks.htm
Conclusions
What can we conclude
about RV and
If you believe that
Bush won fairly in 2004 and Democratic landslides were not denied in 2006 and
2008, then you must believe that the
a) Recorded vote matched the True Vote
(i.e. there was no fraud)
b) Pre-election
c) Pre-election RV polls overstated the
Democratic True Vote
d) Unadjusted and preliminary exit
polls overstated the Democratic True Vote
e) Final National Exit Polls were
correct in forcing a match to the recorded vote by requiring millions more
returning Bush voters than were alive
f)
Elections were fraud-free even
though the recorded vote counts were not verifiable
On the other hand, if
you believe that Kerry won in 2004 and Democratic landslides were denied in
2006 and 2008, then you must also believe that the
a) Recorded vote was
incorrect (i.e. the vote counts were fraudulent)
b) Pre-election
c) Pre-election RV
polls were a close match to the True Vote
d) Unadjusted and
preliminary exit polls were a close match to the True Vote
e) Final National
Exit Polls were impossible in matching to the recorded vote by requiring
millions more returning Bush voters than were alive
f) Elections were fraudulent and resulted in a
3-5% reduction in the True Democratic share