2010 Governor True Vote Analysis: FL, OH, PA, WI, NJ

Richard Charnin

July 6, 2011

In the 2010 midterms, the GOP won the race for Governor in FL, OH, PA, WI and NJ (2009). They won the official recorded vote. But did they win the True Vote?

The True Vote Model (TVM) indicates that the Democrats very likely won FL, OH, PA and NJ – and may have also won WI. The average assumed returning McCain voter turnout was 70% compared to 62% for Obama voters. The analysis is predicated on the 2008 True Vote, not the recorded vote. Obama’s True Vote share in the five states was 4.3% higher than his recorded share.

Florida

Scott (Rep) won by 49.6-48.4% (61,000 votes).

Sink won the unadjusted exit poll (3156 respondents) by 50.8-45.4% (282,000 votes).

The TVM indicates that Sink (Dem) won the True Vote by approximately 317,000 with a 52.5% share. Sink had just 48.4% recorded.

Even if Sink had just 86% of Obama voters and 7% of McCain voters, Sink wins by 17,000 votes.

Ohio

Kasich (Rep) won by 77,000 votes (49.8-47.8%).

Strickland won the unadjusted exit poll (3305 respondents) by 49.9-47.4% (101,000 votes).

The TVM indicates that Strickland (Dem) won the True Vote by 338,000 (52.2%). 

Even if Strickland had just 81% of Obama voters and 11% of McCain voters, Strickland wins by 51,000 votes.

Pennsylvania

Corbett (Rep) won by 357,000 recorded votes.

Corbett won the unadjusted exit poll 54.3-45.3%

Even if Onorato (Dem) had just 83% of returning Obama voters and 8% of returning McCain voters, Onorato wins by 83,000.

Wisconsin

Walker (Rep) won by 105,000 recorded votes (52-47%).

Walker won the unadjusted exit poll by 52.4-46.0%

Even if Barrett (Dem) had just 87% of returning Obama voters and 7% returning McCain voters, Barrett wins by 28,000 votes..

New Jersey (2009)

Christie (Rep) won by 99,000 votes (48.7-45.6%).

Even if the incumbent Corzine (Dem) had just 77% of returning Obama voters and 7% of returning McCain voters, Corzine wins by 76,000 votes.

The True Vote Model is predicated on determining a) a feasible estimate of returning voters from the prior election and b) estimate of how voters in the current election cast votes. Typically, the number of returning voters is a function of prior election total votes cast, voter mortality and estimated turnout. The 2008 Presidential True Vote is used as the basis for calculating returning voters in each election. The vote shares are derived from the final exit polls. Annual Voter mortality is 1.25%, therefore 2.5% of 2008 voters are assumed to have passed on. Given the 2010 total vote, we calculate new voters as follows:

Total Votes = returning 2008 voter turnout + New 2010 voters

New 2010 voters = 2010 vote – returning 2008 voter turnout

The number of third-party 2008 voters is a given, yet the 2010 exit polls indicate there were more returning third-party voters than were alive. Therefore the percentages were reduced to calculate the True Vote. This was also the case in 2008. According to the Final 2008 National Exit Poll there were 5 million returning third-party voters - but there were only 1.2 million recorded third-party votes in 2004.

In each of the 2010 exit polls, returning third-party and New voter percentages are given but the corresponding vote shares are N/A. Inquiring minds would like to know why. In order to match the recorded 2010 vote, the GOP candidate had to win 55-60% of new and returning third-party (Other) voters.  In the True Vote Model, returning third-party and new voters were assumed to be split equally between the Democrat and the Republican.

The conventional wisdom is that the 2010 midterms were a GOP blowout of epic proportions - even bigger than 1994. The party in power nearly always loses seats in the midterms. But the Democrats do significantly better than the recorded vote in virtually every election. There is no reason to suspect that 2010 was any different. 

Mainstream media pundits never mention the fact that it is standard operating procedure for exit pollsters to force all final national and state exit polls to match the recorded vote. They accept the recorded vote as gospel and never question the official results . But the evidence is overwhelming that in virtually every election, the recorded vote does not equal the True Vote because of systemic election fraud. It is ten years since Florida 2000 - and the beat goes on.

The following tables provide

a) Final exit polls (adjusted to match the recorded vote),

b) True Vote calculation based on 2008 returning voters

c) Sensitivity Analyses to show the effects of various returning voter turnout and vote share scenarios.

2010 Governor True Vote Analysis

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/main.results/#G

Gov 2010

Governor

Returning Voter Mix

2008 Voter Turnout

Obama

Obama

Recorded

Recorded

Exit Poll

True Vote

True Vote

Dem

Exit Poll

Obama

McCain

GOP

Recorded

True Vote

Dem

GOP

Dem

Dem

GOP

Margin

Dem

GOP

Dem

GOP

Margin

Florida

50.9%

56.2%

48.4%

49.6%

50.8%

52.0%

46.0%

317

47%

47%

59%

68%

(276)

Ohio

51.4%

57.2%

47.8%

49.8%

49.9%

53.3%

44.3%

338

45%

47%

62%

71%

(101)

Pennsylvania

54.5%

58.7%

45.3%

54.3%

49.8%

51.0%

49.0%

83

49%

45%

66%

73%

357

Wisconsin

56.2%

56.5%

46.6%

52.2%

47.1%

50.2%

48.9%

28

49%

45%

67%

76%

125

New Jersey

57.2%

61.2%

44.6%

48.7%

48.1%

48.1%

45.1%

70

49%

45%

57%

62%

99

Average

54.0%

57.9%

46.6%

51.0%

49.1%

50.9%

46.7%

167

47.8%

45.8%

62.2%

69.8%

41

Dem Margin

-4.4%

4.3%

2.0%

-7.6%

Florida

2010 Governor Exit Poll

2010 Governor Exit Poll (forced to match recorded vote)

Voted 2008

Mix

 Sink

 Scott

Other

Votes

Voted 2008

Mix

 Sink

 Scott

Other

Votes

Obama

47%

90%

8%

2%

2,482

Obama

47%

88%

10%

2%

2,482

McCain

47%

11%

85%

4%

2,482

McCain

47%

11%

87%

2%

2,482

Other 

3%

54%

30%

16%

158

Other 

3%

32%

66%

2%

158

DNV 

3%

55%

30%

15%

158

DNV 

3%

31%

67%

2%

158

Share

100%

50.8%

45.4%

3.8%

Recorded

100%

48.4%

49.6%

2.0%

Votes

5282

2683

2401

198

5282

Votes

5282

2557

2619

106

5282

Margin

282

Margin

(61)

Exit Poll Resp

3150

1600

1431

119

50.8%

45.4%

3.8%

2010 Governor True Vote

True Vote

based on 2008 true vote

2008

Recorded

True

Voted

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Voted 2008

Mix

 Sink

 Scott

Other

Total

Obama

50.9%

56.2%

4729

4611

59%

2720

Obama

51.5%

88%

10%

2%

2720

McCain

48.1%

42.8%

3599

3509

68%

2380

McCain

45.1%

11%

87%

2%

2380

Other 

1.0%

1.0%

82

80

60%

48

Other

0.9%

50%

48%

2%

48

133

DNV

2.5%

50%

48%

2%

133

Total

8410

8200

62.8%

5282

Total

100%

52.0%

46.0%

2.0%

5282

Total

2746

2430

106

5282

Margin

317

Sink Vote Share

Sink Vote Share

Obama

Turnout

% Obama

%McCain

%Obama

86%

87%

88%

89%

90%

86%

87%

88%

89%

90%

61%

52.3%

52.8%

53.3%

53.9%

54.4%

11%

51.0%

51.5%

52.0%

52.5%

53.0%

60%

51.6%

52.1%

52.7%

53.2%

53.7%

10%

50.5%

51.0%

51.5%

52.1%

52.6%

59%

51.0%

51.5%

52.0%

52.5%

53.0%

9%

50.1%

50.6%

51.1%

51.6%

52.1%

58%

50.3%

50.8%

51.3%

51.8%

52.3%

8%

49.6%

50.1%

50.6%

51.2%

51.7%

57%

49.7%

50.2%

50.7%

51.1%

51.6%

7%

49.2%

49.7%

50.2%

50.7%

51.2%

Margin

Margin

61%

346

402

459

515

571

11%

208

262

317

371

425

60%

277

332

388

443

498

10%

160

214

269

323

378

59%

208

262

317

371

425

9%

112

167

221

276

330

58%

139

192

246

299

352

8%

65

119

174

228

283

57%

69

122

174

227

280

7%

17

72

126

180

235

Sink Vote Share

Sink Vote Share

Obama

Sink%

Obama

Obama

Share

Obama

Share

Turnout

86%

87%

88%

89%

90%

57%

58%

59%

60%

61%

56%

50.8%

51.3%

51.8%

52.3%

52.9%

56%

50.5%

51.2%

51.8%

52.5%

53.2%

55%

50.1%

50.6%

51.1%

51.6%

52.1%

55%

49.8%

50.5%

51.1%

51.8%

52.4%

54%

49.4%

49.9%

50.4%

50.9%

51.4%

54%

49.1%

49.8%

50.4%

51.1%

51.7%

53%

48.7%

49.2%

49.7%

50.2%

50.7%

53%

48.5%

49.1%

49.7%

50.4%

51.0%

52%

48.1%

48.5%

49.0%

49.5%

50.0%

52%

47.8%

48.4%

49.0%

49.6%

50.3%

Margin

Margin

56%

191

245

299

354

408

56%

158

229

299

370

441

55%

118

172

225

278

331

55%

86

155

225

294

364

54%

46

98

150

203

255

54%

14

82

150

219

287

53%

(27)

25

76

127

178

53%

(58)

9

76

143

210

52%

(99)

(49)

1

52

102

52%

(130)

(64)

1

67

133

Ohio

2010 Governor Exit Poll

2010 Governor Exit Poll (forced to match recorded vote)

Voted 2008

Mix

Strickland

Kasich

Other

Votes

Voted 2008

Mix

Strickland

Kasich

Other

Votes

Obama

45%

86%

12%

2%

1,708

Obama

45%

83%

14%

3%

1,708

McCain

47%

15%

83%

2%

1,784

McCain

47%

15%

83%

2%

1,784

Other 

3%

52%

36%

12%

114

Other 

3%

42%

57%

1%

114

DNV 

5%

53%

36%

11%

190

DNV 

5%

42%

56%

2%

190

Share

100%

49.96%

47.29%

2.75%

Recorded

100%

47.76%

49.82%

2.42%

Votes

3,795

1896

1795

104

3,795

3795

1812

1891

92

3795

Margin

101

(78)

Exit Poll

Total

Dem

Rep

Other

3305

49.89%

47.35%

2.75%

1649

1565

91

True Vote

True Vote

2008

Recorded

True

Voted

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Voted 2008

Mix

Strickland

Kasich

Other

Total

Obama

51.4%

57.2%

3263

3182

62%

1973

Obama

52.0%

85%

12%

3%

1973

McCain

46.9%

41.1%

2345

2286

71%

1620

McCain

42.7%

15%

83%

2%

1620

Other 

1.8%

1.8%

102

99

65%

64

Other

1.7%

50%

50%

0%

64

138

DNV

3.6%

50%

50%

0%

138

Total

100%

5710

5710

5567

65.7%

3795

Total

100%

53.3%

44.3%

2.4%

3795

Votes

Total

2021

1682

92

3795

Margin

Margin

338

Strickland Vote Share

Strickland Vote Share

Obama

Turnout

% Obama

%McCain

% Obama

81%

83%

85%

87%

89%

81%

83%

85%

87%

89%

64%

52%

53.4%

54.4%

55.5%

56.6%

15%

51.2%

52.2%

53.3%

54.3%

55.3%

63%

52%

52.8%

53.8%

54.9%

56.0%

14%

50.7%

51.8%

52.8%

53.9%

54.9%

62%

51%

52.2%

53.3%

54.3%

55.3%

13%

50.3%

51.4%

52.4%

53.4%

54.5%

61%

51%

51.6%

52.7%

53.7%

54.7%

12%

49.9%

50.9%

52.0%

53.0%

54.1%

58%

49%

49.9%

50.9%

51.9%

52.9%

11%

49.5%

50.5%

51.5%

52.6%

53.6%

Margin

Margin

64%

265

347

428

510

591

15%

181

260

338

417

496

63%

223

303

383

464

544

14%

148

227

306

385

464

62%

181

260

338

417

496

13%

116

195

274

353

431

61%

138

216

294

371

449

12%

83

162

241

320

399

58%

11

85

159

233

307

11%

51

130

209

288

367

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate Exit Poll

Forced to match recorded vote

2010 Governor Exit Poll

Forced to match recorded vote

Voted 2008

Mix

Sestak

Toomey

Total

Voted 2008

Mix

Onorato

Corbett

Total

Obama

49%

88%

12%

1948

Obama

49%

81%

19%

1954

McCain

45%

9%

91%

1790

McCain

45%

8%

92%

1794

Other na

3%

35%

65%

119

Other  na

3%

38%

62%

120

DNV na

3%

35%

65%

119

DNV na

3%

38%

62%

120

Recorded

100%

49.3%

50.7%

3978

Recorded

100%

45.6%

54.4%

3987

Votes

3978

1960

2018

Votes

3987

1815

2172

Margin

(80)

Margin

(357)

Exit Poll Resp

2672

1331

1333

8

Exit Poll

2658

1203

1444

11

49.8%

49.9%

0.3%

45.3%

54.3%

0.4%

2010 Governor True Vote

True Vote

2008

Recorded

True

Voted

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Voted 2008

Mix

Onorato

Corbett

Total

Obama

54.5%

58.7%

3352

3268

66%

2157

Obama

54.1%

83%

17%

2157

McCain

46.8%

39.5%

2257

2200

73%

1596

McCain

40.0%

8%

92%

1596

Other

1.8%

1.8%

102

99

60%

59

Other

1.5%

50%

50%

59

175

DNV

4.4%

50%

50%

175

Total

100%

5710

5710

5567

68.5%

3987

Total

100%

51.0%

49.0%

3987

Votes

3987

2035

1952

Margin

83

Onorato Vote Share

Onorato Vote Share

Obama

Turnout

% Obama

%McCain

%Obama

81%

82%

83%

84%

85%

81%

82%

83%

84%

85%

68%

51.2%

51.7%

52.3%

52.8%

53.4%

10%

50.8%

51.3%

51.8%

52.4%

52.9%

67%

50.6%

51.1%

51.7%

52.2%

52.8%

9%

50.4%

50.9%

51.4%

52.0%

52.5%

66%

50.0%

50.5%

51.0%

51.6%

52.1%

8%

50.0%

50.5%

51.0%

51.6%

52.1%

65%

49.4%

49.9%

50.4%

51.0%

51.5%

7%

49.6%

50.1%

50.6%

51.2%

51.7%

64%

48.8%

49.3%

49.8%

50.3%

50.9%

6%

49.2%

49.7%

50.2%

50.8%

51.3%

Margin

Margin

68%

92

137

181

226

270

10%

61

104

147

190

233

67%

45

88

132

176

220

9%

29

72

115

158

201

66%

(3)

40

83

126

169

8%

(3)

40

83

126

169

65%

(51)

(8)

34

77

119

7%

(35)

8

51

94

138

64%

(99)

(57)

(15)

27

69

6%

(67)

(24)

19

62

106

Wisconsin

2010 Senate Exit Poll

2010 Governor Exit Poll

Forced to match recorded vote

Voted 2008

Mix

Feingold

Johnson

Other

Total

Voted 2008

Mix

Barrett

Walker

Other

Total

Obama

49%

84%

15%

1%

1,063

Obama

49%

83%

16%

1%

1,058

McCain

43%

7%

93%

0%

933

McCain

43%

7%

93%

0%

928

Other na

3%

40%

56%

4%

65

Other na

3%

38%

53%

9%

65

DNV na

5%

40%

50%

10%

109

DNV na

5%

35%

56%

9%

108

Recorded

100%

47.4%

51.5%

1.1%

Recorded

100%

46.6%

52.2%

1.2%

Votes

2170

1020

1126

24

Votes

2159

1004

1129

26

2159

Margin

(105)

Margin

(125)

Exit Poll Resp

2192

1032

1126

34

E Poll Resp

2184

1005

1145

34

47.1%

51.4%

1.6%

46.0%

52.4%

1.6%

2010 Governor True Vote

True Vote

Voted 2008

Recorded

True

Voted

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Voted 2008

Mix

Barrett

Walker

Other

Total

Obama

56.2%

56.5%

1685

1643

67%

1101

Obama

51.0%

87%

12%

1%

1101

McCain

42.3%

42.0%

1253

1222

76%

928

McCain

43.0%

7%

93%

0%

928

Other 

1.5%

1.5%

45

44

70%

31

Other

1.4%

47%

47%

6%

31

99

DNV

4.6%

47%

47%

6%

99

Total

100%

2983

2983

2908

70.8%

2159

Total

100%

50.2%

48.9%

0.9%

2159

Votes

2159

1084

1056

19

Margin

28

Barrett Vote Share

Barrett Vote Share

Obama Turnout

% Obama

%McCain

%Obama

83%

85%

87%

89%

91%

83%

85%

87%

89%

91%

69%

49.3%

50.4%

51.4%

52.5%

53.5%

9%

49.0%

50.0%

51.1%

52.1%

53.1%

68%

48.7%

49.8%

50.8%

51.8%

52.9%

8%

48.6%

49.6%

50.6%

51.7%

52.7%

67%

48.2%

49.2%

50.2%

51.2%

52.2%

7%

48.2%

49.2%

50.2%

51.2%

52.2%

66%

47.6%

48.6%

49.6%

50.6%

51.6%

6%

47.7%

48.8%

49.8%

50.8%

51.8%

65%

47.0%

48.0%

49.0%

50.0%

51.0%

5%

47.3%

48.3%

49.3%

50.4%

51.4%

Margin

Margin

69%

(10)

35

81

126

171

9%

(23)

21

65

109

153

68%

(35)

9

54

99

143

8%

(42)

2

46

90

134

67%

(60)

(16)

28

72

116

7%

(60)

(16)

28

72

116

66%

(86)

(42)

1

45

88

6%

(79)

(35)

9

53

97

65%

(111)

(68)

(25)

17

60

5%

(98)

(54)

(9)

35

79

New Jersey

98.75%

2009

Voted 2008

Recorded

True

Voted

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Voted 2008

Mix

Corzine

Christie

Other

Total

Obama

57.2%

61.2%

2391

2332

57%

1329

Obama

56.1%

77%

16%

7%

1329

McCain

41.6%

37.6%

1470

1433

61.7%

885

McCain

37.4%

5%

89%

6%

885

Other 

1.2%

1.2%

48

47

60%

28

Other

1.2%

50%

43%

7%

28

125

DNV

5.3%

46%

45%

9%

125

Total

3876

3910

3910

3812

58.8%

2367

Total

100%

48.1%

45.1%

6.7%

2367

Votes

1139

1069

159

2367

Margin

70

Recorded

44.6%

48.7%

6.7%

Votes

1055

1154

158

2367

Margin

(99)

Corzine Share

Corzine Share

Obama

%Obama

%McCain

%Obama

Turnout

73%

75%

77%

79%

81%

73%

75%

77%

79%

81%

61%

48.6%

49.8%

51.0%

52.2%

53.4%

9%

47.4%

48.5%

49.6%

50.7%

51.9%

59%

47.2%

48.4%

49.5%

50.7%

51.9%

8%

47.0%

48.1%

49.2%

50.4%

51.5%

57%

45.9%

47.0%

48.1%

49.2%

50.4%

7%

46.6%

47.7%

48.9%

50.0%

51.1%

55%

44.5%

45.6%

46.7%

47.8%

48.9%

6%

46.3%

47.4%

48.5%

49.6%

50.7%

53%

43.2%

44.2%

45.3%

46.3%

47.4%

5%

45.9%

47.0%

48.1%

49.2%

50.4%

Margin

Margin

61%

92

149

206

263

320

9%

35

88

141

194

248

59%

28

83

138

193

248

8%

17

70

124

177

230

57%

(36)

17

70

124

177

7%

(0)

53

106

159

212

55%

(100)

(48)

3

54

105

6%

(18)

35

88

141

195

53%

(164)

(114)

(65)

(15)

34

5%

(36)

17

70

124

177