2010 Midterms: What the Pollsters and Pundits Will and Won’t Tell You
They tell you that since the 2000 selection, likely voter (
They tell you that registered voter polls (RV) don’t reflect actual voter turnout. It’s true- not all registered voter turnout. But they won’t tell you that predictions based on RV polls closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in 2004, 2006 and 2008. Or that over 80 million votes were uncounted in the 11 elections since 1968.
They tell you that Republicans are poised to net close to 60
seats. But they won’t tell you that predictions based on likely voter (
They tell you that the Republicans have an outside chance of
taking the Senate. But they don’t tell you that the Democrats lead the weighted
average of 18 senate RV polls by 49.4-40.4% and are ahead in 11 of the 18. But they
lead by just 46.5-45.3% in the corresponding
They tell you that the exit polls reflect the voting demographic. But they won’t tell you that final exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
They tell you that 2004 pre-election polls predicted Bush
would win. But they won’t tell you they were
They tell you that Bush won by 3 million votes. But they won’t tell you that the Final NEP required over 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were still living in 2004 in order to match the recorded vote.
They tell you that in the 2006 midterms, the Democrats won the House by 52-46% (230-205 seats). But they won’t tell you that the final pre-election polls had the Democrats winning by 15% and the unadjusted NEP by 15%. Or that15-20 Democratic seats were stolen (primarily in FL, OH, NM and IL).
They tell you that the 2008 pre-election
They tell you that the 2008 NEP shows that Obama won by 7%. But they won’t tell you that the NEP required a 103% turnout of living 2004 Bush voters to match the recorded vote: 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. And they won’t tell you that 5 million returning third party voters were also required even though only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. They won’t explain why unadjusted and preliminary exit poll results have never been made available.
In the 2010 midterms, they will produce final exit polls that we know are forced to match the recorded vote. They won’t tell you why the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls won’t be released. But the cat is out of the bag. We know why: they would show that the Democrats did much better than the recorded vote and that the GOP stole 20 House and perhaps 3 Senate seats.