Still the Same Old Story: 2010 Generic and Senate RV and LV Polls

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

Aug 30, 2010

 

It happens in every election. The Democrats do much better in registered voter polls than the likely voter subset of the RV. It happened in 2004, when Kerry’ RV share was 2% higher than his corresponding LV poll share. The unadjusted state exit poll were in agreement with the RVs. Kerry won by 52-47%

 

It happened in 2006 when the Democrats enjoyed a growing 15% margin a mix of RV/LV Generic polls. But four LV polls showed up right before Election Day with the margin cut in half. The unadjusted 2006 National Exit Poll had the Democrats winning by 56-41%%, matching the pre-election trend. But the Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote and those final LV polls: 52-46%

 

It happened in 2008 when Obama had a 13% lead in Gallup’s RV tracking poll and Zogby tracking polls. But Rasmussen and a few other LV polls had Obama’s margin at 7% matching his 53-45% recorded vote share margin. We only have the Final National Exit Poll which was forced to match the recorded share by setting the Bush/Kerry/Other returning voter mix to an impossible 46/37/4%. Impossible because that means there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters  and 5 million returning  third-party voters. But there were only 1.2 million recorded third-party votes in 2004. And who still believes that Bush beat Kerry? More likely there were 10 million more returning Kerry voters than Bush voters. The True Vote Model indicates that Kerry won by 67-57 million votes.

 

And it’s happening all over again in 2010. Things look bad for the Democrats, but not as bad as the Rasmussen LV polls indicate. They don’t even pretend to hide it anymore: Rasmussen is a GOP pollster. He polls everywhere – and all arel LVs. Just look at the following 2010 Generic and Senate polling from RCP.

 

29 Generic Polls from July 1:

 

N         Type    Rep      Dem     Margin

10        LV       46.2     38.3     7.9

19        RV       45.9     43.1     2.8 close

 

29        All        45.9     41.5     4.8

 

117 Generic polls in 2010

 

46        LV       45.0     38.2     6.8

71        RV       45.0     43.9     1.1 close

 

117      All        44.8     41.2     2.7

 

Senate

104      LV       51.1     35.4     15.7

24        RV       39.8     44.3     -4.5 Dem lead

 

128      All        47.9     38.3     9.6

66        Ras      52.4     35.8     16.6 (21.1 difference from RV margin)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected 2-party

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

50.0%

50.0%

 

Poll average

 

Count

Rep

Dem

Spread

Rep

Dem

 

last 2 months

LV

10

46.20

38.30

7.9

54.0

46.1

 

 

RV

19

45.89

43.05

2.8

51.4

48.6

 

 

Total

29

45.87

41.47

4.4

52.2

47.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2010 Total

LV

46

44.96

38.24

6.7

53.4

46.6

Polling Data

 

RV

71

44.96

43.82

1.1

50.6

49.4

 

 

Total

117

44.83

41.67

3.2

51.6

48.4

 

                                                                                                                                                                               

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected 2-pty share

2010 Poll

Date

Sample

Type

Rep

Dem

Spread

Rep

Dem

                                                                                                                                                                               

Reuters/Ipsos

8/19 - 8/22

950

RV

46

45

1

50.5

49.5

Gallup

8/16 - 8/22

1600

RV

47

44

3

51.5

48.5

Rasmussen Reports

8/16 - 8/22

3500

LV

47

38

9

54.5

45.5

Time

8/16 - 8/17

827

LV

43

37

6

53.0

47.0

Associated Press/GfK

8/11 - 8/16

890

RV

49

45

4

52.0

48.0

 

Gallup

8/9 - 8/15

1600

RV

50

43

7

53.5

46.5

Rasmussen Reports

8/9 - 8/15

3500

LV

48

36

12

56.0

44.0

FOX News

8/10 - 8/11

900

RV

44

37

7

53.5

46.5

CNN/Opinion Research

8/6 - 8/10

935

RV

48

45

3

51.5

48.5

PPP (D)

8/6 - 8/9

606

RV

45

42

3

51.5

48.5

 

Rasmussen Reports

8/2 - 8/8

3500

LV

46

39

7

53.5

46.5

Gallup

8/2 - 8/8

1600

RV

49

43

6

53.0

47.0

Pew Research

7/21 - 8/5

2431

RV

44

45

(1)

49.5

50.5

Gallup

7/26 - 8/1

1562

RV

48

43

5

52.5

47.5

Rasmussen Reports

7/26 - 8/1

3500

LV

46

38

8

54.0

46.0

 

FOX News

7/27 - 7/28

900

RV

47

36

11

55.5

44.5

Reuters/Ipsos

7/22 - 7/25

848

RV

46

44

2

51.0

49.0

Gallup

7/19 - 7/25

1633

RV

44

48

(4)

48.0

52.0

Rasmussen Reports

7/19 - 7/25

3500

LV

46

36

10

55.0

45.0

CNN/Opinion Research

7/16 - 7/21

945

RV

49

44

5

52.5

47.5

 

Quinnipiac

7/13 - 7/19

2181

RV

43

38

5

52.5

47.5

Gallup

7/12 - 7/18

1535

RV

43

49

(6)

47.0

53.0

Rasmussen Reports

7/12 - 7/18

3500

LV

45

36

9

54.5

45.5

FOX News

7/13 - 7/14

900

RV

41

37

4

52.0

48.0

Time

7/12 - 7/13

1003

A

42

43

(1)

49.5

50.5

 

Bloomberg

7/9 - 7/12

875

LV

48

40

8

54.0

46.0

PPP (D)

7/9 - 7/12

667

RV

43

43

0

50.0

50.0

ABC News/Wash Post

7/7 - 7/11

na

LV

49

45

4

52.0

48.0

Gallup

7/5 - 7/11

1600

RV

46

47

(1)

49.5

50.5

Rasmussen Reports

7/5 - 7/11

3500

LV

44

38

6

53.0

47.0

 

Gallup

6/28 - 7/3

1600

RV

46

44

2

51.0

49.0

FOX News

6/29 - 6/30

900

RV

42

40

2

51.0

49.0

Rasmussen Reports

6/21 - 6/27

3500

LV

44

38

6

53.0

47.0

Democracy Corps (D)

6/19 - 6/22

867

LV

48

42

6

53.0

47.0

Gallup

6/21 - 6/27

1600

RV

45

46

(1)

49.5

50.5

 

Pew Research

6/16 - 6/20

1496

RV

45

45

0

50.0

50.0

Gallup

6/14 - 6/20

1600

RV

46

46

0

50.0

50.0

Rasmussen Reports

6/14 - 6/20

3500

LV

44

36

8

54.0

46.0

USA Today/Gallup

6/11 - 6/13

1014 A

A

43

48

(5)

47.5

52.5

Ipsos/McClatchy

6/10 - 6/13

846

RV

43

42

1

50.5

49.5

 

Gallup

6/7 - 6/13

1600

RV

49

44

5

52.5

47.5

Rasmussen Reports

6/7 - 6/13

3500

LV

46

36

10

55.0

45.0

FOX News

6/8 - 6/9

900

RV

38

41

(3)

48.5

51.5

PPP (D)

6/4 - 6/7

650

RV

41

43

(2)

49.0

51.0

ABC News/Wash Post

6/3 - 6/6

na

RV

44

47

(3)

48.5

51.5

 

Gallup

5/31 - 6/6

1600

RV

46

46

0

50.0

50.0

Rasmussen Reports

5/31 - 6/6

3500

LV

44

35

9

54.5

45.5

Gallup

5/24 - 5/30

1600

RV

49

43

6

53.0

47.0

Rasmussen Reports

5/24 - 5/30

3500

LV

44

37

7

53.5

46.5

Quinnipiac

5/19 - 5/24

1914

RV

36

42

(6)

47.0

53.0

 

Rasmussen Reports

5/17 - 5/23

3500

LV

44

36

8

54.0

46.0

Gallup

5/17 - 5/23

1600

RV

46

47

(1)

49.5

50.5

FOX News

5/18 - 5/19

900

RV

41

41

0

50.0

50.0

Democracy Corps (D)

5/15 - 5/18

1000

LV

46

43

3

51.5

48.5

Gallup

5/10 - 5/16

1600

RV

46

45

1

50.5

49.5

 

Rasmussen Reports

5/10 - 5/16

3500

LV

43

38

5

52.5

47.5

Ipsos-McClatchy

5/6 - 5/9

905

RV

42

45

(3)

48.5

51.5

Gallup

5/3 - 5/8

1600

RV

46

46

0

50.0

50.0

Rasmussen Reports

5/3 - 5/8

3500

LV

44

38

6

53.0

47.0

FOX News

5/4 - 5/5

900

RV

42

40

2

51.0

49.0

 

Gallup

4/26 - 5/2

1600

RV

45

45

0

50.0

50.0

Rasmussen Reports

4/26 - 5/2

3500

LV

44

37

7

53.5

46.5

National Journal/FD

4/22 - 4/26

1200

A

35

39

(4)

48.0

52.0

ABC News/Wash Post

4/22 - 4/25

na

RV

43

48

(5)

47.5

52.5

Gallup

4/19 - 4/25

1600

RV

45

45

0

50.0

50.0

 

Rasmussen Reports

4/19 - 4/25

3500

LV

44

38

6

53.0

47.0

FOX News

4/20 - 4/21

900

RV

42

38

4

52.0

48.0

Democracy Corps (D)

4/17 - 4/20

872

LV

45

43

2

51.0

49.0

Gallup

4/12 - 4/18

1600

RV

46

43

3

51.5

48.5

Rasmussen Reports

4/12 - 4/18

3500

LV

46

36

10

55.0

45.0

 

PPP (D)

4/9 - 4/11

622

RV

47

42

5

52.5

47.5

CNN/Opinion Research

4/9 - 4/11

907

RV

46

50

(4)

48.0

52.0

Gallup

4/5 - 4/11

1613

RV

48

44

4

52.0

48.0

Rasmussen Reports

4/5 - 4/11

3500

LV

45

36

9

54.5

45.5

FOX News

4/6 - 4/7

900

RV

43

39

4

52.0

48.0

 

GWU/Battleground

4/5 - 4/8

1000

LV

41

40

1

50.5

49.5

Ipsos-McClatchy

4/1 - 4/5

950

RV

46

45

1

50.5

49.5

Gallup

3/29 - 4/4

1344

RV

46

46

0

50.0

50.0

Rasmussen Reports

3/29 - 4/4

3500

LV

47

38

9

54.5

45.5

USA Today/Gallup

3/26 - 3/28

968

RV

46

45

1

50.5

49.5

 

CNN/Opinion Research

3/25 - 3/28

935

RV

49

45

4

52.0

48.0

Rasmussen Reports

3/22 - 3/28

3500

LV

46

39

7

53.5

46.5

Gallup

3/22 - 3/28

na

RV

47

44

3

51.5

48.5

Washington Post

3/23 - 3/26

na

RV

44

48

(4)

48.0

52.0

CNN/Opinion Research

3/19 - 3/21

953

RV

48

45

3

51.5

48.5

 

Quinnipiac

3/16 - 3/21

1907

RV

44

39

5

52.5

47.5

Gallup

3/15 - 3/21

na

RV

45

47

(2)

49.0

51.0

Rasmussen Reports

3/15 - 3/21

3500

LV

43

35

8

54.0

46.0

FOX News

3/16 - 3/17

900

RV

42

38

4

52.0

48.0

Democracy Corps (D)

3/15 - 3/18

850

LV

43

44

(1)

49.5

50.5

 

PPP (D)

3/12 - 3/14

1403

RV

46

43

3

51.5

48.5

Gallup

3/8 - 3/14

na

RV

44

47

(3)

48.5

51.5

Rasmussen Reports

3/8 - 3/14

3500

LV

45

35

10

55.0

45.0

Gallup

3/1 - 3/7

na

RV

44

47

(3)

48.5

51.5

Rasmussen Reports

3/1 - 3/7

3500

LV

44

37

7

53.5

46.5

 

Ipsos/McClatchy

2/26 - 2/28

950

RV

43

47

(4)

48.0

52.0

Rasmussen Reports

2/22 - 2/28

3500

LV

44

36

8

54.0

46.0

McLaughlin & Associates (R)

2/24 - 2/25

1000

LV

42

35

7

53.5

46.5

Democracy Corps (D)

2/20 - 2/24

851

LV

49

46

3

51.5

48.5

Rasmussen Reports

2/15 - 2/21

3500

LV

44

35

9

54.5

45.5

 

Newsweek

2/17 - 2/18

908

RV

43

45

(2)

49.0

51.0

POS (R)

2/17 - 2/18

900

RV

43

42

1

50.5

49.5

CNN/Opinion Research

2/12 - 2/15

954

RV

47

45

2

51.0

49.0

Rasmussen Reports

2/8 - 2/14

3500

LV

45

36

9

54.5

45.5

Pew Research

2/3 - 2/9

1129

RV

42

45

(3)

48.5

51.5

 

ABC News/Wash Post

2/4 - 2/8

na

RV

48

45

3

51.5

48.5

Rasmussen Reports

2/1 - 2/7

3500

LV

44

36

8

54.0

46.0

Democracy Corps (D)

2/2 - 2/4

805

LV

45

46

(1)

49.5

50.5

Gallup

2/1 - 2/3

942

RV

45

45

0

50.0

50.0

PPP (D)

1/29 - 1/31

584

RV

43

40

3

51.5

48.5

 

Rasmussen Reports

1/25 - 1/31

3500

LV

45

38

7

53.5

46.5

NPR - POS/GQR

1/20 - 1/23

800

LV

44

39

5

52.5

47.5

Rasmussen Reports

1/18 - 1/24

3500

LV

46

37

9

54.5

45.5

McLaughlin & Associates (R)

1/19 - 1/20

1000

LV

42

37

5

52.5

47.5

PPP (D)

1/18 - 1/19

1151

RV

45

42

3

51.5

48.5

 

Rasmussen Reports

1/11 - 1/17

3500

LV

45

37

8

54.0

46.0

Democracy Corps (D)

1/7 - 1/11

836

LV

46

45

1

50.5

49.5

CNN/Opinion Research

1/8 - 1/10

955

RV

48

45

3

51.5

48.5

Pew Research

1/6 - 1/10

1214

RV

44

46

(2)

49.0

51.0

Rasmussen Reports

1/4 - 1/10

3500

LV

45

36

9

54.5

45.5

 

REGISTERED VOTERS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RV

39.83

44.33

10.83

State

Poll

   Date

Sample

         Rep

       Dem

 Spread

AZ

Behavior Research Center

4/12 - 4/25

666 RV

46

24

22

AR

Reuters/Ipsos

7/16 - 7/18

600 RV

54

35

19

CA

PPP (D)

7/23 - 7/25

614 RV

40

49

9

CO

PPP (D)

8/7 - 8/8

1015RV

43

46

-3

CO

Denver Post/SurveyUSA

7/27 - 7/29

950 RV

43

43

0

CT

Quinnipiac

7/28 - 8/2

1299RV

40

50

10

DE

Daily Kos/PPP (D)

8/7 - 8/8

620 RV

48

35

13

FL

Quinnipiac

8/11 - 8/16

1096RV

32

39

-7

FL

St. Petersburg Times

8/6 - 8/10

602 RV

29

33

-4

GA

Insider Advantage

8/18 - 8/18

554 RV

47

35

12

IL

WeAskAmerica

8/4 - 8/4

998 RV

39

33

6

LA

WWL-TV/Clarus Research

8/15 - 8/16

600 RV

48

36

12

MD

PPP (D)

7/10 - 7/12

569 RV

27

59

32

MO

KY3/Missouri State Univ.

8/6 - 8/22

785 RV

49

48

1

NV

PPP (D)

7/16 - 7/18

630 RV

46

48

2

NH

PPP (D)

7/23 - 7/25

900 RV

45

42

3

NY1

Siena

8/9 - 8/16

788 RV

29

54

25

NY1

Marist

5/3 - 5/5

686 RV

30

50

20

NY2

Siena

7/6 - 7/12

760 RV

26

63

37

NY2

Marist

5/3 - 5/5

686 RV

27

66

39

NC

PPP (D)

7/27 - 7/31

624 RV

39

37

2

PA

Quinnipiac

7/6 - 7/11

1367RV

43

43

0

WA

PPP (D)

7/27 - 8/1

1204RV

46

49

3

WA

Elway Poll

6/9 - 6/13

405 RV

40

47

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LIKELY VOTERS

 

LV

51.09

35.38

18.72

State

Poll

Date

Sample

     Rep

   Dem

 Spread

AL

Rasmussen Reports

8/19 - 8/19

500 LV

60

28

32

AL

Rasmussen Reports

7/22 - 7/22

500 LV

59

29

30

AL

Rasmussen Reports

6/3 - 6/3

500 LV

58

31

27

AL

Rasmussen Reports

5/25 - 5/25

500 LV

58

31

27

AL

R2000/Daily Kos (D)**

5/17 - 5/19

600 LV

57

33

24

AL

Rasmussen Reports

3/29 - 3/29

500 LV

59

32

27

AZ

Rasmussen Reports

8/25 - 8/25

500 LV

53

31

22

AZ

PPP (D)

4/23 - 4/25

813 LV

49

33

16

 

AR

Rasmussen Reports

8/18 - 8/18

500 LV

65

27

38

AR

Talk Business Poll

7/17 - 7/17

793 LV

57

32

25

AR

Magellan Strategies (R)

7/12 - 7/12

897 LV

60

29

31

 

CA

Rasmussen Reports

8/24 - 8/24

750 LV

44

49

5

CA

SurveyUSA

8/9 - 8/11

602 LV

47

42

-5

CA

PPIC

7/6 - 7/20

1321LV

34

39

5

 

CO

Rasmussen Reports

8/29 - 8/29

750 LV

49

45

4

CO

Reuters/Ipsos

8/20 - 8/22

453 LV

49

40

9

 

CT

Rasmussen Reports

8/11 - 8/11

500 LV

40

47

7

 

DE

Rasmussen Reports

8/5 - 8/5

500 LV

49

37

12

DE

Rasmussen Reports

7/14 - 7/14

500 LV

47

36

11

DE

Rasmussen Reports

4/29 - 4/29

500 LV

55

32

23

DE

R2000/Daily Kos (D)**

2/22 - 2/24

600 LV

53

35

18

DE

Rasmussen Reports

2/22 - 2/22

500 LV

53

32

21

DE

Rasmussen Reports

1/25 - 1/25

500 LV

56

27

29

DE

R2000/Daily Kos (D)**

10/12 - 10/14

600 LV

51

39

12

 

FL

Rasmussen Reports

8/25 - 8/25

750 LV

40

30

10

FL

PPP (D)

8/21 - 8/22

567 LV

40

32

8

FL

Mason-Dixon

8/9 - 8/11

625 LV

38

33

5

 

GA

Rasmussen Reports

5/20 - 5/20

500 LV

57

30

27

GA

Rasmussen Reports

4/22 - 4/22

500 LV

51

35

16

GA

R2000/Daily Kos (D)**

4/5 - 4/7

600 LV

53

26

27

 

HI

Rasmussen Reports

6/24 - 6/24

500 LV

20

68

48

 

ID

Rasmussen Reports

7/15 - 7/15

500 LV

64

27

37

ID

Rasmussen Reports

5/11 - 5/11

500 LV

66

22

44

 

IL

Rasmussen Reports

8/23 - 8/23

750 LV

45

45

0

IL

PPP (D)

8/14 - 8/15

576 LV

35

37

-2

 

IN

Rasmussen Reports

8/4 - 8/7

500 LV

50

29

21

IN

Rasmussen Reports

7/7 - 7/8

500 LV

51

30

21

IN

Rasmussen Reports

6/2 - 6/3

500 LV

47

33

14

IN

Rasmussen Reports

5/5 - 5/6

500 LV

51

36

15

IN

Downs Center/SUSA

4/22 - 4/26

1250LV

47

31

16

IN

Rasmussen Reports

4/13 - 4/14

500 LV

54

33

21

IN

Rasmussen Reports

3/17 - 3/18

500 LV

49

34

15

IN

R2000/Daily Kos (D)**

2/22 - 2/24

600 LV

37

36

1

IN

Rasmussen Reports

2/16 - 2/17

500 LV

46

32

14

 

IA

Rasmussen Reports

8/5 - 8/5

500 LV

55

35

20

IA

KCCI - Des Moines

5/31 - 6/2

600 LV

50

42

8

IA

PPP (D)

5/25 - 5/27

1277LV

57

31

26

 

KS

SurveyUSA

8/12 - 8/15

588 LV

69

23

46

KS

Rasmussen Reports

8/4 - 8/4

500 LV

61

28

33

KS

Rasmussen Reports

6/30 - 6/30

500 LV

59

23

36

KS

Rasmussen Reports

5/11 - 5/11

500 LV

61

25

36

 

KY

CN|2/Braun Research

8/16 - 8/18

801 LV

41

42

-1

KY

Rasmussen Reports

8/17 - 8/17

500 LV

51

41

10

KY

Reuters/Ipsos

8/13 - 8/15

435 LV

45

40

5

KY

SurveyUSA

7/27 - 7/29

568 LV

51

43

8

 

LA

PPP (D)

8/21 - 8/22

403 LV

51

41

10

LA

Rasmussen Reports

6/24 - 6/24

500 LV

53

35

18

 

MD

Rasmussen Reports

8/17 - 8/17

750 LV

39

55

16

MD

Rasmussen Reports

7/8 - 7/8

500 LV

33

58

25

 

MO

Rasmussen Reports

8/23 - 8/23

750 LV

54

41

13

MO

Daily Kos/PPP (D)

8/14 - 8/15

690 LV

45

38

7

MO

Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon

7/19 - 7/21

625 LV

48

42

6

 

NV

LVRJ/Mason-Dixon

8/23 - 8/25

625 LV

44

45

1

NV

Rasmussen Reports

8/16 - 8/16

750 LV

50

48

-2

NV

Reuters/Ipsos

7/30 - 8/1

462 LV

44

48

4

 

NH

Rasmussen Reports

8/5 - 8/5

500 LV

51

38

13

NH

WMUR/UNH

7/19 - 7/27

446 LV

45

37

8

 

NY1

Rasmussen Reports

7/29 - 7/29

500 LV

33

50

17

NY2

Rasmussen Reports

6/16 - 6/16

500 LV

33

54

21

 

NC

Rasmussen Reports

8/3 - 8/3

500 LV

49

40

9

NC

Civitas (R)

7/19 - 7/21

600 LV

44

37

7

NC

SurveyUSA

7/8 - 7/11

560 LV

46

36

10

 

ND

Rasmussen Reports

8/10 - 8/11

500 LV

69

25

44

ND

Rasmussen Reports

7/21 - 7/21

500 LV

69

22

47

ND

Rasmussen Reports

6/15 - 6/16

500 LV

73

19

54

ND

Rasmussen Reports

5/18 - 5/19

500 LV

72

23

49

ND

Rasmussen Reports

4/20 - 4/20

500 LV

69

24

45

ND

Rasmussen Reports

3/23 - 3/23

500 LV

68

25

43

 

OH

Rasmussen Reports

8/16 - 8/16

750 LV

48

39

9

OH

Reuters/Ipsos

8/6 - 8/8

417 LV

43

36

7

OH

PPP (D)

6/26 - 6/27

482 LV

38

40

-2

 

OK

Rasmussen Reports

8/26 - 8/26

500 LV

67

24

43

OK

Rasmussen Reports

7/28 - 7/28

500 LV

65

31

34

OK

Rasmussen Reports

6/30 - 6/30

500 LV

65

26

39

 

OR

Rasmussen Reports

8/22 - 8/22

750 LV

56

36

20

OR

SurveyUSA

7/25 - 7/27

567 LV

53

35

18

OR

Rasmussen Reports

7/26 - 7/26

750 LV

51

35

16

OR

Rasmussen Reports

6/17 - 6/17

500 LV

47

37

10

OR

SurveyUSA

6/7 - 6/9

566 LV

51

38

13

OR

Rasmussen Reports

5/24 - 5/24

500 LV

51

38

13

OR

Rasmussen Reports

2/16 - 2/16

500 LV

49

35

14

 

PA

Franklin & Marshall

8/16 - 8/23

377 LV

40

31

9

PA

Rasmussen Reports

8/16 - 8/16

750 LV

48

40

8

PA

PPP (D)

8/14 - 8/16

585 LV

45

36

9

 

UT

Rasmussen Reports

8/23 - 8/23

500 LV

54

29

25

UT

Rasmussen Reports

6/23 - 6/23

500 LV

58

28

30

 

VT

Rasmussen Reports

6/17 - 6/17

500 LV

29

64

35

 

WA

SurveyUSA

8/18 - 8/19

618 LV

52

45

-7

WA

Rasmussen Reports

8/18 - 8/18

750 LV

46

50

4

 

WV

Rasmussen Reports

8/29 - 8/29

500 LV

42

48

6

WV

Rasmussen Reports

7/22 - 7/22

500 LV

35

51

16

 

WI

Rasmussen Reports

8/24 - 8/24

750 LV

47

46

-1

WI

Magellan Strategies (R)

7/12 - 7/12

1145LV

43

45

2

WI

PPP (D)

6/26 - 6/27

638 LV

43

45

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

`

 

RAS LV

52.36

35.82

22.52

State

Poll

Date

Sample

Rep

Dem

Spread

AL

Rasmussen Reports

8/19 - 8/19

500 LV

60

28

32

AL

Rasmussen Reports

7/22 - 7/22

500 LV

59

29

30

AL

Rasmussen Reports

6/3 - 6/3

500 LV

58

31

27

AL

Rasmussen Reports

5/25 - 5/25

500 LV

58

31

27

AL

Rasmussen Reports

3/29 - 3/29

500 LV

59

32

27

 

AZ

Rasmussen Reports

8/25 - 8/25

500 LV

53

31

22

 

AR

Rasmussen Reports

8/18 - 8/18

500 LV

65

27

38

 

CA

Rasmussen Reports

8/24 - 8/24

750 LV

44

49

5

 

CO

Rasmussen Reports

8/29 - 8/29

750 LV

49

45

4

 

CT

Rasmussen Reports

8/11 - 8/11

500 LV

40

47

7

 

DE

Rasmussen Reports

8/5 - 8/5

500 LV

49

37

12

DE

Rasmussen Reports

7/14 - 7/14

500 LV

47

36

11

DE

Rasmussen Reports

4/29 - 4/29

500 LV

55

32

23

DE

Rasmussen Reports

2/22 - 2/22

500 LV

53

32

21

DE

Rasmussen Reports

1/25 - 1/25

500 LV

56

27

29

 

FL

Rasmussen Reports

8/25 - 8/25

750 LV

40

30

10

 

GA

Rasmussen Reports

5/20 - 5/20

500 LV

57

30

27

GA

Rasmussen Reports

4/22 - 4/22

500 LV

51

35

16

 

HI

Rasmussen Reports

6/24 - 6/24

500 LV

20

68

48

 

ID

Rasmussen Reports

7/15 - 7/15

500 LV

64

27

37

ID

Rasmussen Reports

5/11 - 5/11

500 LV

66

22

44

 

IL

Rasmussen Reports

8/23 - 8/23

750 LV

45

45

0

 

IN

Rasmussen Reports

8/4 - 8/7

500 LV

50

29

21

IN

Rasmussen Reports

7/7 - 7/8

500 LV

51

30

21

IN

Rasmussen Reports

6/2 - 6/3

500 LV

47

33

14

IN

Rasmussen Reports

5/5 - 5/6

500 LV

51

36

15

IN

Rasmussen Reports

4/13 - 4/14

500 LV

54

33

21

IN

Rasmussen Reports

3/17 - 3/18

500 LV

49

34

15

IN

Rasmussen Reports

2/16 - 2/17

500 LV

46

32

14

 

IA

Rasmussen Reports

8/5 - 8/5

500 LV

55

35

20

 

KS

Rasmussen Reports

8/4 - 8/4

500 LV

61

28

33

KS

Rasmussen Reports

6/30 - 6/30

500 LV

59

23

36

KS

Rasmussen Reports

5/11 - 5/11

500 LV

61

25

36

 

KY

Rasmussen Reports

8/17 - 8/17

500 LV

51

41

10

 

LA

Rasmussen Reports

6/24 - 6/24

500 LV

53

35

18

 

MD

Rasmussen Reports

8/17 - 8/17

750 LV

39

55

16

MD

Rasmussen Reports

7/8 - 7/8

500 LV

33

58

25

 

MO

Rasmussen Reports

8/23 - 8/23

750 LV

54

41

13

 

NV

Rasmussen Reports

8/16 - 8/16

750 LV

50

48

-2

 

NH

Rasmussen Reports

8/5 - 8/5

500 LV

51

38

13

 

NY1

Rasmussen Reports

7/29 - 7/29

500 LV

33

50

17

NY2

Rasmussen Reports

6/16 - 6/16

500 LV

33

54

21

 

NC

Rasmussen Reports

8/3 - 8/3

500 LV

49

40

9

 

ND

Rasmussen Reports

8/10 - 8/11

500 LV

69

25

44

ND

Rasmussen Reports

7/21 - 7/21

500 LV

69

22

47

ND

Rasmussen Reports

6/15 - 6/16

500 LV

73

19

54

ND

Rasmussen Reports

5/18 - 5/19

500 LV

72

23

49

ND

Rasmussen Reports

4/20 - 4/20

500 LV

69

24

45

ND

Rasmussen Reports

3/23 - 3/23

500 LV

68

25

43

 

OH

Rasmussen Reports

8/16 - 8/16

750 LV

48

39

9

 

OK

Rasmussen Reports

8/26 - 8/26

500 LV

67

24

43

OK

Rasmussen Reports

7/28 - 7/28

500 LV

65

31

34

OK

Rasmussen Reports

6/30 - 6/30

500 LV

65

26

39

 

OR

Rasmussen Reports

8/22 - 8/22

750 LV

56

36

20

OR

Rasmussen Reports

7/26 - 7/26

750 LV

51

35

16

OR

Rasmussen Reports

6/17 - 6/17

500 LV

47

37

10

OR

Rasmussen Reports

5/24 - 5/24

500 LV

51

38

13

OR

Rasmussen Reports

2/16 - 2/16

500 LV

49

35

14

 

PA

Rasmussen Reports

8/16 - 8/16

750 LV

48

40

8

 

UT

Rasmussen Reports

8/23 - 8/23

500 LV

54

29

25

UT

Rasmussen Reports

6/23 - 6/23

500 LV

58

28

30

 

VT

Rasmussen Reports

6/17 - 6/17

500 LV

29

64

35

 

WA

Rasmussen Reports

8/18 - 8/18

750 LV

46

50

4

 

WV

Rasmussen Reports

8/29 - 8/29

500 LV

42

48

6

WV

Rasmussen Reports

7/22 - 7/22

500 LV

35

51

16

 

WI

Rasmussen Reports

8/24 - 8/24

750 LV

47

46

-1