2010 PA, WI and IL Senate Elections: A Comparative Demographic and True Vote Analysis

 

Richard Charnin

 

June 20, 2011

 

The GOP won the WI, IL and PA senate elections. They won the recorded vote. But did they win the True Vote? 

 

Obama had a 56.2% recorded share in Wisconsin.  But the popular progressive Sen. Russ Feingold lost by 5% in a traditionally progressive state.  How does one explain Feingold’s 5% loss? He had 56% in 2004. Was it due to unverifiable touch screens (DRE) and/or the central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?

http://richardcharnin.com/WI2010SenateTrueVote.htm

 

Obama had a 61.9% recorded share in Illinois. But the progressive Democrat Giannoulias lost by 2% in a heavily Democratic state.. He led the Registered Voter (RV) polls by 42-38 and the Likely Voter (LV)  polls by 43-42.  He won the unadjusted exit poll by 51.0-47.0 (144,000 votes). Was the loss due to unverifiable DREs and rigged central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?

http://richardcharnin.com/IL2010SenateTrueVote.htm

 

Obama had a 54.5% recorded share in Pennsylvania. The progressive Democrat Sestak lost by 2%   He led the RV polls by 47-43 and trailed the LV polls by 49-45. He led the exit poll at 10:15pm but fell behind at 117am as the poll was being matched to the vote with no change in respondents. The unadjusted exit poll was a virtual 49.8-49.9% tie. Was the loss due to unverifiable DREs and rigged central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?

http://richardcharnin.com/PA2010SenateTrueVote.htm

 

In 2008, Oregon voted 56.7% for Obama, matching the National True Vote Model. As a battleground state, Oregon should be representative of the national electorate. The 2010 Oregon  senate race was never in question. Senator Ron Wyden led by a steady 20% in pre-election Likely Voter (LV) polls. He won with a 57% recorded share, matching Obama’s 2008 Oregon share. How does one explain Wyden’s 20% win?

http://richardcharnin.com/OregonVotingSystem.htm

 

Each of these battleground states shifted to the GOP and Wyden won Oregon in a landslide.  How did they differ from Oregon? Was it because Oregon’s recorded vote reflected the true intent of the voters? Was it due to the fact that Oregon is a 100% paper ballot state? Was it due to the fact that Oregon mandates hand-counts of randomly selected counties – a clear deterrent to election fraud? Oregon was the only battleground state in which Kerry’s vote share exceeded Gore’s 2000 share. 

 

Since the 2000 election, Oregon’s recorded vote share has consistently matched pre-election polls and the unadjusted national exit polls. Is this unique track record due to the fact that only Oregon mandates hand counts of optically scanned ballots in randomly selected counties? Historical evidence strongly suggests that Oregon’s random hand-counts are a deterrent to Election Fraud.

 

Table 1 is a comparison of the Wisconsin, Pensylvania and Illinois Final Exit Polls (i.e. recorded vote) and the True Vote Model. Note that all Final Exit Poll demographics understated the Democratic share as they were forced to match the recorded vote.

 

These are the key results:

- Final exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote by assuming that nearly one in six returning Obama voters defected to the GOP.

- Vote shares were n/a for the 6% that were returning 2008 third party (“Other”) and new (“DNV”) voters.

- The percentage mix of returning third-party (“Other”) 2008 voters invariably indicated that there were more returning third-party voters voters than actually voted in 2008.

 

 In the three elections, the Democrats…

-  lost the average recorded vote by 3.0% but won the True Vote by 2.4%, even assuming a 10% GOP edge in 2008 voter turnout.

-  won returning 2008 Obama and McCain voters by a 46.7-45.1%

-  won the “When Decided” category by 50.0-47.6% (the exit pollsters did not force a match to the recorded vote).

-  led the GOP in Party ID by 40.3-36.0%.

 

As always, exit poll weightings and vote shares for all categories were rounded to the nearest 1%. There is no reason why they are not displayed to the nearest tenth of a percent – unless the pollsters want to fudge the vote shares to match the recorded vote - which they do anyway. After all, more than 17,000 voters were interviewed in the National Exit Poll and approximately 2000 in each state. Analysts want to see the unadjusted, “pristine” numbers – but the NEP won’t allow that. They want to keep us guessing.

 

The conventional wisdom is that the 2010 midterms were a GOP blowout of epic proportions - even bigger than 1994. Yes, the party in power nearly always loses seats in the midterms. The unconventional wisdom is that the Democrats do significantly better than the recorded vote in every election. There is no reason to suspect that 2010 was any different. The media pundits accept the recorded vote and final exit polls as gospel and never question the official results . And they never mention the fact that it is standard operating procedure for the exit pollsters to force all final national and state exit polls to match the recorded vote.

 

Historically, the strong correlations between a) pre-election registered voter polls and unadjusted exit polls and b) pre-election likely voter polls and final exit polls (i.e. the recorded vote), is a clearl indication of election fraud.  Likely voter (LV) polls are a sub-sample of registered voter (RV) polls. We have unverifiable elections and a strange reluctance of the Democratic leadership to do anything about it.

 

Let’s consider the 2010 senate pre-election polls. Based on 37 LV polls (the GOP led the average by 48.1-43.5%), the pre-election model predicted a 50-48 Democratic Senate.

http://richardcharnin.com/2010SenateMidtermsPostElection.htm

 

CNN/Time provided RV and LV polling data for 18 Senate races. The Democrats led a combination of 18 RV and 19 LV polls by 45.2-44.6% giving them a 53-45 seat majority.

The Democratic RV margin was approximately 5% higher than the LV margin.

 

RV polls were not listed in the final realclearpolitics.com polling averages.  The Democrats led the average RV poll by 49.2-40.6%. They also led the corresponding LVs by 46.6-45.8%.

The Democratic margin was 8% higher in the RV polls.

 

The 2010 Final National Exit Poll indicated that 45% of the electorate were returning Obama voters and 45% were McCain voters. Obama's recorded vote margin was 52.9-45.6%. Of course, the pundits will claim that the 7.3% discrepancy was due to millions of unenthusiastic Democrats who did not return to vote in 2010. The pollsters make adjustments to the number of returning voters (the “mix”) and the vote shares in order to match the vote count. Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5 million, but his True Vote margin was at least twice that. His recorded share understated his True vote share by 4-5%. If the 2010 NEP returning voter mix is adjusted to match the 2008 recorded share (53-45%), the average Democratic share is within 1% of the GOP share – and matches the pre-election RV polls.  The adjusted 53% Democratic share of the 2010 electorate is 5% lower than Obama’s True share.

 

Table 2 is a comparison of 18 pre-election Registered (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls and the recorded vote. Democrats led the RV poll average by a solid 46.4-41.1%. They led the LV sub-sample by 46.6-45.8%, within 0.4% of the recorded 48.3-47.9% share.

 

Table 3 is a comparison between the final pre-election LV polls, the preliminary exit polls and the recorded shares. There was a 2.9% discrepancy in margin between the average recorded vote and the exit poll.  The final RCP LV projected average margin exceeded the recorded margin by 2.2%.

 

Table 4 displays Final exit polls Gender crosstab.

 

Table 5 displays Final state exit polls with the returning voter mix adjusted to match the 2008 recorded vote. The resulting vote shares closely match the pre-election RV polls – and the True Vote.

 

Wisconsin True Vote

 

 WI

 

 

97.5%

Turnout

2010

 

 Share

 

 

 Votes

 

 

2008

True

Share

Alive

Rate

Voted

Mix

Feingold

Johnson

Other

Feingold

Johnson

Other

Obama

1700

57.0%

1658

60%

995

45.8%

88%

11%

1%

875

109

10

McCain

1238

41.5%

1207

70%

845

38.9%

7%

93%

0%

59

786

0

Other

45

1.5%

44

70%

31

1.4%

50%

50%

0%

15

15

0

DNV/New

 

 

 

-

300

13.8%

50%

50%

0%

150

150

0

Total

2983

100%

2908

64%

2170

100%

50.7%

48.9%

0.5%

1100

1060

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin:

39

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama

Recorded

56.2% 

 

 

 

Recorded

47.0%

51.9%

1.1%

1020

1126

24

 

Pennsylvania True Vote

 

PA

 

 

97.5%

Turnout

2010

 

 

 

 Votes

 

2008

True

Share

Alive

Rate

Voted

Mix

Sestak

Toomey

Sestak

Toomey

Obama

3427

57.0%

3342

60%

2005

50.4%

88%

12%

1764

241

McCain

2504

41.7%

2442

70%

1709

43.0%

9%

91%

154

1555

Other

81

1.3%

79

70%

55

1.4%

50%

50%

28

28

DNV

 

 

 

-

208

5.2%

50%

50%

104

104

Total

6013

100%

5863

64%

3978

100.0%

51.5%

48.5%

2050

1928

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

122

 

Obama

Recorded

54.5%

 

 

 

Recorded

49.0%

51.0%

1949

2029

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Illinois True Vote

 

IL

 

 

97.5%

Turnout

 2010

 

Vote share

 

 

True Vote

 

 

2008

True

Share

Alive

Rate

Voted

Mix

Giannoulias

Kirk

Other

Giannoulias

Kirk

Other

Obama

3424

62.0%

3339

60%

2003

55.4%

82%

15%

3%

1643

300

60

McCain

2027

36.7%

1976

70%

1383

38.3%

3%

93%

4%

42

1287

55

Other

72

1.3%

70

70%

49

1.4%

50%

50%

0%

25

25

0

DNV

 

 

 

-

180

5.0%

50%

50%

0%

90

90

0

Total

5523

100%

5385

64%

3616

100.0%

49.7%

47.1%

3.2%

1799

1702

115

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

97

 

 

Obama

Recorded

61.9%

 

 

 

Recorded

47.6%

49.2%

3.2%

1719

1779

118

 

Oregon True Vote

Changed exit poll mix from 6% Other and 5% DNV  and

estimated votes shares to force a match to the recorded vote.

 

Oregon

Recorded

Votes

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Mix

Wyden

Huffman

Other

Obama

56.75%

1,074

1047

72.8%

763

53%

88%

9%

3%

McCain 

40.40%

719

701

73.9%

518

36%

19%

80%

1%

Other 

2.85%

53

52

55.7%

29

2%

35%

40%

5%

DNV 

 

 

 

 

130

9%

35%

55%

10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

100%

1846

1800

72.7%

1439

100%

57.3%

39.3%

3.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Votes

825

566

48

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1: 2010 Senate PA, WI, IL Exit Polls: Comparable Demographic Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 National Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama

McCain

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

52.9

45.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TrueVote

57.9

40.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama 2008

 

Senate 2010

Dem

 

Senate True Vote

Dem

 

Unadj Exit Poll

 

 

 

Recorded

True

 

Dem

Rep

Margin (000)

Dem

Rep

Margin (000)

Dem

Rep

Margin

PA

54.5

57

 

49.0

51.0

(82)

 

51.5

48.5

122

 

49.8

49.9

-4

WI

56.2

57

 

47.0

52.0

(105)

 

50.7

48.9

39

 

47.1

51.4

-94

IL

61.9

62

 

47.5

49.3

(67)

 

49.7

47.1

97

 

51.0

47.0

144

 

Avg

57.5

58.7

 

47.8

50.8

(85)

 

50.6

48.2

86

 

49.3

49.4

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2010 Turnout (recorded)

2008 EP Return Voter Mix

 

ExitP Dem %

 

Rep %

 

Dem%

Rep%

Share

 

Obama

McCain

 

Obama

McCain

Other/DNV

Obama

McCain

Obama

McCain

Total

Total

Oth/DNV

PA

60

70

 

49

45

6

 

88

9

12

91

47.2

46.8

N/A

WI

60

70

 

49

43

8

 

84

15

7

93

47.6

43.4

N/A

IL

60

70

 

56

38

6

 

79

3

18

93

45.4

45.4

N/A

 

Avg

60

70

 

51.3

42.0

6.7

 

83.7

9.0

12.3

92.3

46.7

45.1

N/A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When Decided-Dem

Vote Share

 

Party ID

 

 

 

Ideology

 

 

 

 

 

Last Mo

Earlier

Dem

Rep

 

Dem

Rep

Ind

 

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

 

PA

55

48

50.3

47.7

 

40

37

23

 

19

46

35

 

 

WI

49

51

50.4

49

 

37

36

27

 

21

43

36

 

 

IL

53

46

49.4

46.1

 

44

35

21

 

22

43

35

 

 

 

Avg

52.3

48.3

50.0

47.6

 

40.3

36.0

23.7

 

20.7

44.0

35.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Geographic Area

 

Democratic Vote Share

 

Gender

 

Dem Vote Share

Dem

 

 

 

Urban

Suburban

Rural

Urban

Suburban

Rural

 

Male

Female

Male

Female

Total

 

 

PA

20

63

17

71

45

40

 

49

51

44

54

49.1

 

 

WI

16

49

35

71

43

42

 

49

51

45

50

47.6

 

 

IL

22

63

15

72

41

35

 

50

50

42

52

47.0

 

 

 

Avg

19.3

58.3

22.3

71.3

43.0

39.0

 

49.3

50.7

43.7

52.0

47.9

 

 

 

 

 

Table 2: 2010 Senate Pre-election Registered Voter Polls (CNN/Time) vs. Likely Voters vs. Recorded Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Discrepancy

Discrepancy

18

RV full sample

 

 

LV sub-sample

 

 

Recorded Share

 

Final - RV Poll

RV Margin

Polls

Dem

Rep

Margin

 

Dem

Rep

Margin

 

Dem

Rep

Margin

Dem

GOP

WSD

Unwtd Avg

46.4

41.1

5.3

 

45.0

46.2

(1.2)

 

48.3

47.9

0.4

1.9

6.8

(4.9)

Wtd Avg

48.7

39.6

9.1

 

46.6

45.8

0.9

 

9

9

 

 

 

 

Win

11

7

4

 

7

10

(3)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AK

24

36

(12)

 

23

37

(14)

 

40.7

59.3

(18.6)

16.7

23.3

6.6

AR

42

53

(11)

 

41

55

(14)

 

37.2

57.6

(20.4)

(4.8)

4.6

9.4

CA

53

37

16

 

50

45

5

 

52.2

42.4

9.8

(0.8)

5.4

6.2

CO

49

44

5

 

46

47

(1)

 

47.5

47.0

0.5

(1.5)

3.0

4.5

CT

56

37

19

 

54

44

10

 

54.2

44.2

10.0

(1.8)

7.2

9.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DE

61

32

29

 

57

38

19

 

56.6

40.0

16.6

(4.4)

8.0

12.4

FL

31

42

(11)

 

32

46

(14)

 

31.5

44.0

(12.5)

0.5

2.0

1.5

IL

42

38

4

 

43

42

1

 

46.2

48.2

(2.3)

4.1

10.4

6.3

KY

44

46

(2)

 

43

50

(7)

 

44.1

55.9

(11.8)

0.1

9.9

9.8

MO

39

50

(11)

 

40

53

(13)

 

40.6

54.3

(13.7)

1.6

4.3

2.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NV

43

39

4

 

45

49

(4)

 

50.2

44.6

5.6

7.2

5.6

(1.6)

NY1

60

33

27

 

55

41

14

 

62.3

37.7

24.6

2.3

4.7

2.4

NY2

63

30

33

 

57

41

16

 

66.5

33.5

33.1

3.5

3.5

(0.1)

OH

43

49

(6)

 

40

55

(15)

 

39.0

57.3

(18.3)

(4.0)

8.3

12.3

PA

47

43

4

 

45

49

(4)

 

49.0

51.0

(2.0)

2.0

8.0

6.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WA

48

44

4

 

51

43

8

 

51.9

48.1

1.6

2.8

5.2

2.4

WI

45

48

(3)

 

44

52

(8)

 

47.0

51.9

(4.9)

2.0

3.9

1.9

WV

45

38

7

 

44

44

0

 

53.5

43.4

10.1

8.5

5.4

(3.1)

 

 

Table 3: Recorded Vote vs. Preliminary Exit Poll vs. Final Pre-election LV Poll

 

*Note FL Dem share is the sum of the Democratic and Independent shares

 

 

Recorded

 

GOP

Exit Poll

 

GOP

Margin

RCP 10/31

State

Dem

GOP

Margin

Dem

GOP

Margin

Vote-EP

Margin

 

LA

37.7%

56.6%

18.9%

43.5%

53.0%

9.5%

9.4%

15.0%

OH

39.0%

57.3%

18.3%

44.6%

53.9%

9.3%

9.0%

18.2%

FL  *

50.0%

48.8%

-1.2%

53.2%

45.8%

-7.4%

6.2%

19.0%

NH

36.5%

60.4%

23.9%

40.1%

57.9%

17.8%

6.1%

15.0%

WI

47.0%

51.9%

4.9%

49.5%

50.0%

0.5%

4.4%

7.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CT

54.2%

44.2%

-10.0%

56.4%

42.1%

-14.3%

4.3%

-10.7%

AR

37.2%

57.6%

20.4%

40.2%

57.3%

17.1%

3.3%

18.3%

WA

51.9%

48.1%

-3.8%

52.7%

45.8%

-6.9%

3.1%

0.0%

MO

40.6%

54.3%

13.7%

42.5%

53.5%

11.0%

2.7%

10.4%

CO

47.5%

47.0%

-0.5%

49.5%

47.0%

-2.5%

2.0%

2.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IL

46.2%

48.2%

2.3%

47.0%

47.5%

0.5%

1.8%

2.8%

DE

56.6%

40.0%

-16.6%

57.7%

39.8%

-17.9%

1.3%

-14.0%

KY

44.1%

55.9%

11.8%

44.5%

55.0%

10.5%

1.3%

11.0%

PA

49.0%

51.0%

2.0%

50.1%

49.9%

-0.2%

1.8%

4.0%

CA

52.2%

42.4%

-9.8%

53.5%

43.5%

-10.0%

0.2%

-4.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WV

53.5%

43.4%

-10.1%

53.6%

43.5%

-10.1%

0.0%

-4.0%

IN

40.0%

54.7%

14.7%

40.5%

56.1%

15.6%

-0.9%

19.3%

NV

50.2%

44.6%

-5.6%

47.5%

46.5%

-1.0%

-4.6%

4.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average

46.3%

50.4%

4.1

47.9%

49.4%

1.5%

2.9%

6.3%

 

Correlation

Dem

1.00

-0.94

-0.99

0.95

0.96

-0.96

-0.42

-0.85

RCP

-0.85

0.85

0.86

-0.81

0.85

0.84

0.37

1.00

 

 

Table 4:  Exit Poll Timeline

 

PA

117am

2666

Respondents

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

48

56

44

Female

52

45

54

Total

100.0

50.3

49.2

Recorded

Final

51.0

49.0

 

 

 

 

IL

203am

2394

Respondents

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

49

50

45

Female

51

46

49

Total

100.0

48.0

47.0

Recorded

Final

48.4

46.1

 

 

 

 

CO

611am

1048

Respondents

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

50

54

43

Female

50

40

56

Total

100.0

47.0

49.5

Recorded

Final

49.8

50.2

 

 

 

 

WI

1053pm

2169

Respondents

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

50

56

42

Female

50

48

52

Total

100.0

52.0

47.0

Recorded

Final

52.4

47.6

 

 

 

 

WA

609am

1129

Respondents

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

48

51

47

Female

52

41

58

Total

100.0

45.8

52.7

Recorded

Final

48.1

51.9

 

 

 

 

NV

208am

3785

Respondents

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

50

48

46

Female

50

42

53

Total

100.0

45.0

49.5

Recorded

Final

44.6

50.2

 

 

 

 

FL

1119am

3176

Respondents

 

Mix

GOP

Dem+Ind

Male

44

54

46

Female

56

44

56

Total

100.0

48.4

51.2

Recorded

Final

43.7

56.3

 

WV

1142pm

1723

Respondents

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

48

46

51

Female

52

41

56

Total

100

43.4

53.6

Recorded

Final

43.4

53.5

 

 

 

 

MO

204am

2507

Respondents

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

50

58

36

Female

50

49

46

Total

100.0

53.5

41.0

Recorded

Final

54.3

40.6

 

 

 

 

CT

1157pm

1455

Respondents

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

51

45

52

Female

49

39

60

Total

100.0

42.1

55.9

Recorded

Final

44.2

54.2

 

Table 5:  Final Senate Exit Polls/ LV Pre-election polls vs. Adjusted Finals/ RV Pre-election Polls

 

                     2010 Final National Exit Poll                                                      2008 Final National Exit Poll     

                     17504 respondents                                                                    17836 respondents                    

                    

                     Gender      Mix             Dem           Rep           Other                 Mix     Obama      McCain Other

                     Male          48%            41%            55%          4%                     47%    49%           48%      3%

                     Female      52%            48%            49%          3%                     53%    56%           43%      1%

                                                                                                                                                

                     Share        100%          44.6%         51.9%        3.5%                 100%   52.7%        45.4%   1.9%

 

 

 

 

Final Exit Polls

 

 

Adjusted Final Exit Polls

 

 

(forced to match recorded vote)

 

 

(mix adjusted to 2008 recorded vote)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National

2010

 

 

 

 

National 

2008

 

 

 

 

 

Voted 08

Mix

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Voted 08

Recorded

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

45%

84%

13%

3%

 

Obama

53%

84%

13%

3%

 

McCain

45%

7%

91%

2%

 

McCain

45%

7%

91%

2%

 

Other

3%

33%

56%

11%

 

Other

2%

33%

56%

11%

 

DNV

4%

38%

60%

2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

97%

43.5%

50.9%

2.7%

 

Total

100%

48.3%

49.0%

2.7%

 

LV avg

30 polls

41.9%

48.7%

9.4%

 

RV avg

19 polls

44.4%

45.1%

10.5%

 

Discrepancy

-0.62%

 

 

 

Margin

Difference

0.07%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WI

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

WI

Recorded

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

49%

84%

15%

1%

 

Obama

56%

84%

15%

1%

 

McCain

43%

7%

93%

0%

 

McCain

43%

7%

93%

0%

 

Other

3%

--

--

 

 

Other

3%

--

--

 

 

DNV

5%

--

--

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

100%

44.2%

47.3%

0.5%

 

Total

100%

50.1%

48.4%

0.5%

 

LV

 

44%

52%

 

 

RV

 

45%

48%

 

 

Discrepancy

4.8%

 

 

 

Margin

Difference

4.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IL

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

IL

Recorded

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

55%

78%

17%

5%

 

Obama

62%

78%

17%

5%

 

McCain

38%

3%

93%

4%

 

McCain

37%

3%

93%

4%

 

Other

4%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

100%

44.0%

44.7%

4.3%

 

Total

100%

49.5%

45.0%

4.3%

 

LV

 

43%

42%

 

 

RV

 

42%

38%

 

 

Discrepancy

-1.7%

 

 

 

Margin

Difference

0.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PA

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

PA

Recorded

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

49%

88%

12%

0%

 

Obama

54%

88%

12%

0%

 

McCain

45%

9%

91%

0%

 

McCain

44%

9%

91%

0%

 

Other

3%

--

--

 

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

100%

47.2%

46.8%

0.0%

 

Total

100%

51.5%

46.5%

0.0%

 

LV

 

45%

49%

 

 

RV

 

47%

43%

 

 

Discrepancy

4.3%

 

 

 

Margin

Difference

1.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CT

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

CT

Recorded

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

55%

84%

14%

2%

 

Obama

60%

84%

14%

2%

 

McCain

48%

16%

82%

2%

 

McCain

38%

16%

82%

2%

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

DNV

4%

--

--

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

109%

53.9%

47.1%

2.1%

 

Total

100%

56.5%

39.6%

2.1%

 

LV

 

54%

44%

 

 

RV

 

56%

37%

 

 

Discrepancy

-3.2%

 

 

 

Margin

Difference

-2.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NV

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

NV

Recorded

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

45%

83%

11%

6%

 

Obama

55%

83%

11%

6%

 

McCain

43%

10%

86%

4%

 

McCain

43%

10%

86%

4%

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

DNV

4%

--

--

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

94%

41.7%

41.9%

4.4%

 

Total

100%

50.0%

43.0%

4.4%

 

LV

 

45%

49%

 

 

RV

 

43%

38%

 

 

Discrepancy

3.7%

 

 

 

Margin

Difference

1.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WA

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

WA

Recorded

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

51%

89%

11%

0%

 

Obama

57%

89%

11%

0%

 

McCain

38%

4%

96%

0%

 

McCain

40%

4%

96%

0%

 

Other

5%

--

--

 

 

Other

3%

--

--

 

 

DNV

6%

--

--

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

100%

46.9%

42.1%

0.0%

 

Total

100%

52.3%

44.7%

0.0%

 

LV

 

51%

43%

 

 

RV

 

48%

44%

 

 

Discrepancy

-3.2%

 

 

 

Margin

Difference

3.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

CO

Recorded

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

47%

89%

8%

3%

 

Obama

54%

89%

8%

3%

 

McCain

43%

8%

86%

6%

 

McCain

45%

8%

86%

6%

 

Other

5%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

98%

45.3%

40.7%

4.0%

 

Total

100%

51.7%

43.0%

4.0%

 

LV

 

45%

47%

 

 

RV

 

49%

44%

 

 

Discrepancy

6.5%

 

 

 

Margin

Difference

3.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OR

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

OR

Recorded

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

53%

88%

9%

3%

 

Obama

56.7%

88%

9%

3%

 

McCain

36%

19%

80%

1%

 

McCain

40.4%

19%

80%

1%

 

Other

6%

--

--

 

 

Other

2.9%

--

--

 

 

DNV

5%

--

--

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

100%

53.5%

33.6%

2.0%

 

Total

100%

57.6%

37.4%

2.0%

 

LV

 

55%

38%

 

 

RV

 

57%

39%

 

 

Discrepancy

2.9%

 

 

 

Margin

Difference

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NY

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

NY

Recorded

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

57%

93%

5%

2%

 

Obama

63%

93%

5%

2%

 

McCain

37%

24%

75%

1%

 

McCain

36%

24%

75%

1%

 

Other

4%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

101%

61.9%

30.6%

1.5%

 

Total

100%

67.2%

30.2%

1.5%

 

LV

 

57%

41%

 

 

RV

 

63%

30%

 

 

Discrepancy

15.3%

 

 

 

 

 

4.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CA

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

CA

Recorded

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

57%

82%

11%

7%

 

Obama

62%

82%

11%

7%

 

McCain

35%

7%

89%

4%

 

McCain

37%

7%

89%

4%

 

Other

3%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

98%

49.2%

37.4%

5.4%

 

Total

100%

53.4%

39.8%

5.4%

 

LV

 

50%

45%

 

 

RV

 

53%

37%

 

 

Discrepancy

6.8%

 

 

 

 

 

-2.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DE

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

DE

Recorded

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

57%

87%

10%

3%

 

Obama

62%

87%

10%

3%

 

McCain

33%

10%

85%

5%

 

McCain

37%

10%

85%

5%

 

Other

3%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

4%

--

--

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

97%

52.9%

33.8%

3.4%

 

Total

100%

57.6%

37.7%

3.4%

 

LV

 

57%

38%

 

 

RV

 

61%

32%

 

 

Discrepancy

0.1%

 

 

 

 

 

-9.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NH

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

NH

Recorded

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

45%

72%

25%

3%

 

Obama

54%

72%

25%

3%

 

McCain

49%

3%

95%

2%

 

McCain

45%

3%

95%

2%

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

99%

33.9%

57.8%

2.3%

 

Total

100%

40.2%

56.3%

2.3%

 

LV

 

44%

51%

 

 

RV

 

na

na

 

 

Discrepancy

-16.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FL

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

FL

Recorded

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

46%

43%

11%

45%

 

Obama

51%

43%

11%

46%

 

McCain

46%

2%

84%

13%

 

McCain

48%

2%

84%

14%

 

Other

3%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

98%

20.7%

43.7%

26.7%

 

Total

100%

22.9%

45.9%

27.6%

 

LV

 

22%

46%

32%

 

RV

 

25%

42%

31%

 

Discrepancy

1.0%

 

 

 

 

 

-6.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MO

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

MO

Recorded

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

42%

86%

9%

5%

 

Obama

49%

86%

9%

5%

 

McCain

50%

5%

92%

3%

 

McCain

49%

5%

92%

3%

 

Other

5%

--

--

 

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

100%

38.6%

49.8%

3.6%

 

Total

100%

44.6%