2010 PA, WI and IL Senate Elections: A Comparative Demographic and True Vote Analysis

Richard Charnin

June 20, 2011

The GOP won the WI, IL and PA senate elections. They won the recorded vote. But did they win the True Vote?

Obama had a 56.2% recorded share in Wisconsin.  But the popular progressive Sen. Russ Feingold lost by 5% in a traditionally progressive state. How does one explain Feingold’s 5% loss? He had 56% in 2004. Was it due to unverifiable touch screens (DRE) and/or the central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?

http://richardcharnin.com/WI2010SenateTrueVote.htm

Obama had a 61.9% recorded share in Illinois. But the progressive Democrat Giannoulias lost by 2% in a heavily Democratic state.. He led the Registered Voter (RV) polls by 42-38 and the Likely Voter (LV) polls by 43-42. He won the unadjusted exit poll by 51.0-47.0 (144,000 votes). Was the loss due to unverifiable DREs and rigged central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?

http://richardcharnin.com/IL2010SenateTrueVote.htm

Obama had a 54.5% recorded share in Pennsylvania. The progressive Democrat Sestak lost by 2%   He led the RV polls by 47-43 and trailed the LV polls by 49-45. He led the exit poll at 10:15pm but fell behind at 117am as the poll was being matched to the vote with no change in respondents. The unadjusted exit poll was a virtual 49.8-49.9% tie. Was the loss due to unverifiable DREs and rigged central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?

http://richardcharnin.com/PA2010SenateTrueVote.htm

In 2008, Oregon voted 56.7% for Obama, matching the National True Vote Model. As a battleground state, Oregon should be representative of the national electorate. The 2010 Oregon  senate race was never in question. Senator Ron Wyden led by a steady 20% in pre-election Likely Voter (LV) polls. He won with a 57% recorded share, matching Obama’s 2008 Oregon share. How does one explain Wyden’s 20% win?

http://richardcharnin.com/OregonVotingSystem.htm

Each of these battleground states shifted to the GOP and Wyden won Oregon in a landslide.  How did they differ from Oregon? Was it because Oregon’s recorded vote reflected the true intent of the voters? Was it due to the fact that Oregon is a 100% paper ballot state? Was it due to the fact that Oregon mandates hand-counts of randomly selected counties – a clear deterrent to election fraud? Oregon was the only battleground state in which Kerry’s vote share exceeded Gore’s 2000 share.

Since the 2000 election, Oregon’s recorded vote share has consistently matched pre-election polls and the unadjusted national exit polls. Is this unique track record due to the fact that only Oregon mandates hand counts of optically scanned ballots in randomly selected counties? Historical evidence strongly suggests that Oregon’s random hand-counts are a deterrent to Election Fraud.

Table 1 is a comparison of the Wisconsin, Pensylvania and Illinois Final Exit Polls (i.e. recorded vote) and the True Vote Model. Note that all Final Exit Poll demographics understated the Democratic share as they were forced to match the recorded vote.

These are the key results:

- Final exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote by assuming that nearly one in six returning Obama voters defected to the GOP.

- Vote shares were n/a for the 6% that were returning 2008 third party (“Other”) and new (“DNV”) voters.

- The percentage mix of returning third-party (“Other”) 2008 voters invariably indicated that there were more returning third-party voters voters than actually voted in 2008.

In the three elections, the Democrats…

- lost the average recorded vote by 3.0% but won the True Vote by 2.4%, even assuming a 10% GOP edge in 2008 voter turnout.

- won returning 2008 Obama and McCain voters by a 46.7-45.1%

- won the “When Decided” category by 50.0-47.6% (the exit pollsters did not force a match to the recorded vote).

- led the GOP in Party ID by 40.3-36.0%.

As always, exit poll weightings and vote shares for all categories were rounded to the nearest 1%. There is no reason why they are not displayed to the nearest tenth of a percent – unless the pollsters want to fudge the vote shares to match the recorded vote - which they do anyway. After all, more than 17,000 voters were interviewed in the National Exit Poll and approximately 2000 in each state. Analysts want to see the unadjusted, “pristine” numbers – but the NEP won’t allow that. They want to keep us guessing.

The conventional wisdom is that the 2010 midterms were a GOP blowout of epic proportions - even bigger than 1994. Yes, the party in power nearly always loses seats in the midterms. The unconventional wisdom is that the Democrats do significantly better than the recorded vote in every election. There is no reason to suspect that 2010 was any different. The media pundits accept the recorded vote and final exit polls as gospel and never question the official results . And they never mention the fact that it is standard operating procedure for the exit pollsters to force all final national and state exit polls to match the recorded vote.

Historically, the strong correlations between a) pre-election registered voter polls and unadjusted exit polls and b) pre-election likely voter polls and final exit polls (i.e. the recorded vote), is a clearl indication of election fraud. Likely voter (LV) polls are a sub-sample of registered voter (RV) polls. We have unverifiable elections and a strange reluctance of the Democratic leadership to do anything about it.

Let’s consider the 2010 senate pre-election polls. Based on 37 LV polls (the GOP led the average by 48.1-43.5%), the pre-election model predicted a 50-48 Democratic Senate.

http://richardcharnin.com/2010SenateMidtermsPostElection.htm

CNN/Time provided RV and LV polling data for 18 Senate races. The Democrats led a combination of 18 RV and 19 LV polls by 45.2-44.6% giving them a 53-45 seat majority.

The Democratic RV margin was approximately 5% higher than the LV margin.

RV polls were not listed in the final realclearpolitics.com polling averages. The Democrats led the average RV poll by 49.2-40.6%. They also led the corresponding LVs by 46.6-45.8%.

The Democratic margin was 8% higher in the RV polls.

The 2010 Final National Exit Poll indicated that 45% of the electorate were returning Obama voters and 45% were McCain voters. Obama's recorded vote margin was 52.9-45.6%. Of course, the pundits will claim that the 7.3% discrepancy was due to millions of unenthusiastic Democrats who did not return to vote in 2010. The pollsters make adjustments to the number of returning voters (the “mix”) and the vote shares in order to match the vote count. Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5 million, but his True Vote margin was at least twice that. His recorded share understated his True vote share by 4-5%. If the 2010 NEP returning voter mix is adjusted to match the 2008 recorded share (53-45%), the average Democratic share is within 1% of the GOP share – and matches the pre-election RV polls. The adjusted 53% Democratic share of the 2010 electorate is 5% lower than Obama’s True share.

Table 2 is a comparison of 18 pre-election Registered (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls and the recorded vote. Democrats led the RV poll average by a solid 46.4-41.1%. They led the LV sub-sample by 46.6-45.8%, within 0.4% of the recorded 48.3-47.9% share.

Table 3 is a comparison between the final pre-election LV polls, the preliminary exit polls and the recorded shares. There was a 2.9% discrepancy in margin between the average recorded vote and the exit poll. The final RCP LV projected average margin exceeded the recorded margin by 2.2%.

Table 4 displays Final exit polls Gender crosstab.

Table 5 displays Final state exit polls with the returning voter mix adjusted to match the 2008 recorded vote. The resulting vote shares closely match the pre-election RV polls – and the True Vote.

Wisconsin True Vote

WI			97.5%	Turnout	2010		Share			Votes
2008	True	Share	Alive	Rate	Voted	Mix	Feingold	Johnson	Other	Feingold	Johnson	Other
Obama	1700	57.0%	1658	60%	995	45.8%	88%	11%	1%	875	109	10
McCain	1238	41.5%	1207	70%	845	38.9%	7%	93%	0%	59	786	0
Other	45	1.5%	44	70%	31	1.4%	50%	50%	0%	15	15	0
DNV/New				-	300	13.8%	50%	50%	0%	150	150	0
Total	2983	100%	2908	64%	2170	100%	50.7%	48.9%	0.5%	1100	1060	10
									Margin:	39
Obama	Recorded	56.2%				Recorded	47.0%	51.9%	1.1%	1020	1126	24

Pennsylvania True Vote

PA			97.5%	Turnout	2010				Votes
2008	True	Share	Alive	Rate	Voted	Mix	Sestak	Toomey	Sestak	Toomey
Obama	3427	57.0%	3342	60%	2005	50.4%	88%	12%	1764	241
McCain	2504	41.7%	2442	70%	1709	43.0%	9%	91%	154	1555
Other	81	1.3%	79	70%	55	1.4%	50%	50%	28	28
DNV				-	208	5.2%	50%	50%	104	104
Total	6013	100%	5863	64%	3978	100.0%	51.5%	48.5%	2050	1928
								Margin	122
Obama	Recorded	54.5%				Recorded	49.0%	51.0%	1949	2029

Illinois True Vote

IL			97.5%	Turnout	2010		Vote share			True Vote
2008	True	Share	Alive	Rate	Voted	Mix	Giannoulias	Kirk	Other	Giannoulias	Kirk	Other
Obama	3424	62.0%	3339	60%	2003	55.4%	82%	15%	3%	1643	300	60
McCain	2027	36.7%	1976	70%	1383	38.3%	3%	93%	4%	42	1287	55
Other	72	1.3%	70	70%	49	1.4%	50%	50%	0%	25	25	0
DNV				-	180	5.0%	50%	50%	0%	90	90	0
Total	5523	100%	5385	64%	3616	100.0%	49.7%	47.1%	3.2%	1799	1702	115
									Margin	97
Obama	Recorded	61.9%				Recorded	47.6%	49.2%	3.2%	1719	1779	118

Oregon True Vote

Changed exit poll mix from 6% Other and 5% DNV and

estimated votes shares to force a match to the recorded vote.

Oregon	Recorded	Votes	Alive	Turnout	Voted	Mix	Wyden	Huffman	Other
Obama	56.75%	1,074	1047	72.8%	763	53%	88%	9%	3%
McCain	40.40%	719	701	73.9%	518	36%	19%	80%	1%
Other	2.85%	53	52	55.7%	29	2%	35%	40%	5%
DNV					130	9%	35%	55%	10%
Total	100%	1846	1800	72.7%	1439	100%	57.3%	39.3%	3.4%
						Votes	825	566	48

Table 1: 2010 Senate PA, WI, IL Exit Polls: Comparable Demographic Analysis

	2008 National Vote
	Obama	McCain
Recorded	52.9	45.6
TrueVote	57.9	40.3
	Obama 2008			Senate 2010		Dem		Senate True Vote		Dem		Unadj Exit Poll
	Recorded	True		Dem	Rep	Margin (000)		Dem	Rep	Margin (000)		Dem	Rep	Margin
PA	54.5	57		49.0	51.0	(82)		51.5	48.5	122		49.8	49.9	-4
WI	56.2	57		47.0	52.0	(105)		50.7	48.9	39		47.1	51.4	-94
IL	61.9	62		47.5	49.3	(67)		49.7	47.1	97		51.0	47.0	144
Avg	57.5	58.7		47.8	50.8	(85)		50.6	48.2	86		49.3	49.4	15
	2010 Turnout (recorded)			2008 EP Return Voter Mix				ExitP Dem %		Rep %		Dem%	Rep%	Share
	Obama	McCain		Obama	McCain	Other/DNV		Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Total	Total	Oth/DNV
PA	60	70		49	45	6		88	9	12	91	47.2	46.8	N/A
WI	60	70		49	43	8		84	15	7	93	47.6	43.4	N/A
IL	60	70		56	38	6		79	3	18	93	45.4	45.4	N/A
Avg	60	70		51.3	42.0	6.7		83.7	9.0	12.3	92.3	46.7	45.1	N/A
	When Decided-Dem		Vote Share			Party ID				Ideology
	Last Mo	Earlier	Dem	Rep		Dem	Rep	Ind		Liberal	Moderate	Conservative
PA	55	48	50.3	47.7		40	37	23		19	46	35
WI	49	51	50.4	49		37	36	27		21	43	36
IL	53	46	49.4	46.1		44	35	21		22	43	35
Avg	52.3	48.3	50.0	47.6		40.3	36.0	23.7		20.7	44.0	35.3
	Geographic Area			Democratic Vote Share				Gender		Dem Vote Share		Dem
	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Urban	Suburban	Rural		Male	Female	Male	Female	Total
PA	20	63	17	71	45	40		49	51	44	54	49.1
WI	16	49	35	71	43	42		49	51	45	50	47.6
IL	22	63	15	72	41	35		50	50	42	52	47.0
Avg	19.3	58.3	22.3	71.3	43.0	39.0		49.3	50.7	43.7	52.0	47.9

Table 2: 2010 Senate Pre-election Registered Voter Polls (CNN/Time) vs. Likely Voters vs. Recorded Vote

										Discrepancy		Discrepancy
18	RV full sample			LV sub-sample			Recorded Share			Final - RV Poll		RV Margin
Polls	Dem	Rep	Margin	Dem	Rep	Margin	Dem	Rep	Margin	Dem	GOP	WSD
Unwtd Avg	46.4	41.1	5.3	45.0	46.2	(1.2)	48.3	47.9	0.4	1.9	6.8	(4.9)
Wtd Avg	48.7	39.6	9.1	46.6	45.8	0.9	9	9
Win	11	7	4	7	10	(3)
AK	24	36	(12)	23	37	(14)	40.7	59.3	(18.6)	16.7	23.3	6.6
AR	42	53	(11)	41	55	(14)	37.2	57.6	(20.4)	(4.8)	4.6	9.4
CA	53	37	16	50	45	5	52.2	42.4	9.8	(0.8)	5.4	6.2
CO	49	44	5	46	47	(1)	47.5	47.0	0.5	(1.5)	3.0	4.5
CT	56	37	19	54	44	10	54.2	44.2	10.0	(1.8)	7.2	9.0
DE	61	32	29	57	38	19	56.6	40.0	16.6	(4.4)	8.0	12.4
FL	31	42	(11)	32	46	(14)	31.5	44.0	(12.5)	0.5	2.0	1.5
IL	42	38	4	43	42	1	46.2	48.2	(2.3)	4.1	10.4	6.3
KY	44	46	(2)	43	50	(7)	44.1	55.9	(11.8)	0.1	9.9	9.8
MO	39	50	(11)	40	53	(13)	40.6	54.3	(13.7)	1.6	4.3	2.7
NV	43	39	4	45	49	(4)	50.2	44.6	5.6	7.2	5.6	(1.6)
NY1	60	33	27	55	41	14	62.3	37.7	24.6	2.3	4.7	2.4
NY2	63	30	33	57	41	16	66.5	33.5	33.1	3.5	3.5	(0.1)
OH	43	49	(6)	40	55	(15)	39.0	57.3	(18.3)	(4.0)	8.3	12.3
PA	47	43	4	45	49	(4)	49.0	51.0	(2.0)	2.0	8.0	6.0
WA	48	44	4	51	43	8	51.9	48.1	1.6	2.8	5.2	2.4
WI	45	48	(3)	44	52	(8)	47.0	51.9	(4.9)	2.0	3.9	1.9
WV	45	38	7	44	44	0	53.5	43.4	10.1	8.5	5.4	(3.1)

Table 3: Recorded Vote vs. Preliminary Exit Poll vs. Final Pre-election LV Poll

*Note FL Dem share is the sum of the Democratic and Independent shares

	Recorded		GOP	Exit Poll		GOP	Margin	RCP 10/31
State	Dem	GOP	Margin	Dem	GOP	Margin	Vote-EP	Margin
LA	37.7%	56.6%	18.9%	43.5%	53.0%	9.5%	9.4%	15.0%
OH	39.0%	57.3%	18.3%	44.6%	53.9%	9.3%	9.0%	18.2%
FL *	50.0%	48.8%	-1.2%	53.2%	45.8%	-7.4%	6.2%	19.0%
NH	36.5%	60.4%	23.9%	40.1%	57.9%	17.8%	6.1%	15.0%
WI	47.0%	51.9%	4.9%	49.5%	50.0%	0.5%	4.4%	7.7%
CT	54.2%	44.2%	-10.0%	56.4%	42.1%	-14.3%	4.3%	-10.7%
AR	37.2%	57.6%	20.4%	40.2%	57.3%	17.1%	3.3%	18.3%
WA	51.9%	48.1%	-3.8%	52.7%	45.8%	-6.9%	3.1%	0.0%
MO	40.6%	54.3%	13.7%	42.5%	53.5%	11.0%	2.7%	10.4%
CO	47.5%	47.0%	-0.5%	49.5%	47.0%	-2.5%	2.0%	2.3%
IL	46.2%	48.2%	2.3%	47.0%	47.5%	0.5%	1.8%	2.8%
DE	56.6%	40.0%	-16.6%	57.7%	39.8%	-17.9%	1.3%	-14.0%
KY	44.1%	55.9%	11.8%	44.5%	55.0%	10.5%	1.3%	11.0%
PA	49.0%	51.0%	2.0%	50.1%	49.9%	-0.2%	1.8%	4.0%
CA	52.2%	42.4%	-9.8%	53.5%	43.5%	-10.0%	0.2%	-4.3%
WV	53.5%	43.4%	-10.1%	53.6%	43.5%	-10.1%	0.0%	-4.0%
IN	40.0%	54.7%	14.7%	40.5%	56.1%	15.6%	-0.9%	19.3%
NV	50.2%	44.6%	-5.6%	47.5%	46.5%	-1.0%	-4.6%	4.0%
Average	46.3%	50.4%	4.1	47.9%	49.4%	1.5%	2.9%	6.3%
Correlation Dem	1.00	-0.94	-0.99	0.95	0.96	-0.96	-0.42	-0.85
RCP	-0.85	0.85	0.86	-0.81	0.85	0.84	0.37	1.00

Table 4: Exit Poll Timeline

PA	117am	2666	Respondents
	Mix	GOP	Dem
Male	48	56	44
Female	52	45	54
Total	100.0	50.3	49.2
Recorded	Final	51.0	49.0
IL	203am	2394	Respondents
	Mix	GOP	Dem
Male	49	50	45
Female	51	46	49
Total	100.0	48.0	47.0
Recorded	Final	48.4	46.1
CO	611am	1048	Respondents
	Mix	GOP	Dem
Male	50	54	43
Female	50	40	56
Total	100.0	47.0	49.5
Recorded	Final	49.8	50.2
WI	1053pm	2169	Respondents
	Mix	GOP	Dem
Male	50	56	42
Female	50	48	52
Total	100.0	52.0	47.0
Recorded	Final	52.4	47.6
WA	609am	1129	Respondents
	Mix	GOP	Dem
Male	48	51	47
Female	52	41	58
Total	100.0	45.8	52.7
Recorded	Final	48.1	51.9
NV	208am	3785	Respondents
	Mix	GOP	Dem
Male	50	48	46
Female	50	42	53
Total	100.0	45.0	49.5
Recorded	Final	44.6	50.2
FL	1119am	3176	Respondents
	Mix	GOP	Dem+Ind
Male	44	54	46
Female	56	44	56
Total	100.0	48.4	51.2
Recorded	Final	43.7	56.3
WV	1142pm	1723	Respondents
	Mix	GOP	Dem
Male	48	46	51
Female	52	41	56
Total	100	43.4	53.6
Recorded	Final	43.4	53.5
MO	204am	2507	Respondents
	Mix	GOP	Dem
Male	50	58	36
Female	50	49	46
Total	100.0	53.5	41.0
Recorded	Final	54.3	40.6
CT	1157pm	1455	Respondents
	Mix	GOP	Dem
Male	51	45	52
Female	49	39	60
Total	100.0	42.1	55.9
Recorded	Final	44.2	54.2

Table 5: Final Senate Exit Polls/ LV Pre-election polls vs. Adjusted Finals/ RV Pre-election Polls

2010 Final National Exit Poll 2008 Final National Exit Poll

17504 respondents 17836 respondents

Gender Mix Dem Rep Other Mix Obama McCain Other

Male 48% 41% 55% 4% 47% 49% 48% 3%

Female 52% 48% 49% 3% 53% 56% 43% 1%

Share 100% 44.6% 51.9% 3.5% 100% 52.7% 45.4% 1.9%

Final Exit Polls					Adjusted Final Exit Polls
(forced to match recorded vote)					(mix adjusted to 2008 recorded vote)
National	2010				National	2008
Voted 08	Mix	Dem	Rep	Other	Voted 08	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	45%	84%	13%	3%	Obama	53%	84%	13%	3%
McCain	45%	7%	91%	2%	McCain	45%	7%	91%	2%
Other	3%	33%	56%	11%	Other	2%	33%	56%	11%
DNV	4%	38%	60%	2%
Total	97%	43.5%	50.9%	2.7%	Total	100%	48.3%	49.0%	2.7%
LV avg	30 polls	41.9%	48.7%	9.4%	RV avg	19 polls	44.4%	45.1%	10.5%
Discrepancy		-0.62%			Margin	Difference	0.07%
WI	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	WI	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	49%	84%	15%	1%	Obama	56%	84%	15%	1%
McCain	43%	7%	93%	0%	McCain	43%	7%	93%	0%
Other	3%	--	--		Other	3%	--	--
DNV	5%	--	--
Total	100%	44.2%	47.3%	0.5%	Total	100%	50.1%	48.4%	0.5%
LV		44%	52%		RV		45%	48%
Discrepancy		4.8%			Margin	Difference	4.7%
IL	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	IL	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	55%	78%	17%	5%	Obama	62%	78%	17%	5%
McCain	38%	3%	93%	4%	McCain	37%	3%	93%	4%
Other	4%	--	--		Other	1%	--	--
DNV	3%	--	--
Total	100%	44.0%	44.7%	4.3%	Total	100%	49.5%	45.0%	4.3%
LV		43%	42%		RV		42%	38%
Discrepancy		-1.7%			Margin	Difference	0.5%
PA	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	PA	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	49%	88%	12%	0%	Obama	54%	88%	12%	0%
McCain	45%	9%	91%	0%	McCain	44%	9%	91%	0%
Other	3%	--	--		Other	2%	--	--
DNV	3%	--	--
Total	100%	47.2%	46.8%	0.0%	Total	100%	51.5%	46.5%	0.0%
LV		45%	49%		RV		47%	43%
Discrepancy		4.3%			Margin	Difference	1.0%
CT	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	CT	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	55%	84%	14%	2%	Obama	60%	84%	14%	2%
McCain	48%	16%	82%	2%	McCain	38%	16%	82%	2%
Other	2%	--	--		Other	2%	--	--
DNV	4%	--	--
Total	109%	53.9%	47.1%	2.1%	Total	100%	56.5%	39.6%	2.1%
LV		54%	44%		RV		56%	37%
Discrepancy		-3.2%			Margin	Difference	-2.1%
NV	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	NV	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	45%	83%	11%	6%	Obama	55%	83%	11%	6%
McCain	43%	10%	86%	4%	McCain	43%	10%	86%	4%
Other	2%	--	--		Other	2%	--	--
DNV	4%	--	--
Total	94%	41.7%	41.9%	4.4%	Total	100%	50.0%	43.0%	4.4%
LV		45%	49%		RV		43%	38%
Discrepancy		3.7%			Margin	Difference	1.9%
WA	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	WA	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	51%	89%	11%	0%	Obama	57%	89%	11%	0%
McCain	38%	4%	96%	0%	McCain	40%	4%	96%	0%
Other	5%	--	--		Other	3%	--	--
DNV	6%	--	--
Total	100%	46.9%	42.1%	0.0%	Total	100%	52.3%	44.7%	0.0%
LV		51%	43%		RV		48%	44%
Discrepancy		-3.2%			Margin	Difference	3.7%
CO	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	CO	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	47%	89%	8%	3%	Obama	54%	89%	8%	3%
McCain	43%	8%	86%	6%	McCain	45%	8%	86%	6%
Other	5%	--	--		Other	1%	--	--
DNV	3%	--	--
Total	98%	45.3%	40.7%	4.0%	Total	100%	51.7%	43.0%	4.0%
LV		45%	47%		RV		49%	44%
Discrepancy		6.5%			Margin	Difference	3.6%
OR	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	OR	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	53%	88%	9%	3%	Obama	56.7%	88%	9%	3%
McCain	36%	19%	80%	1%	McCain	40.4%	19%	80%	1%
Other	6%	--	--		Other	2.9%	--	--
DNV	5%	--	--
Total	100%	53.5%	33.6%	2.0%	Total	100%	57.6%	37.4%	2.0%
LV		55%	38%		RV		57%	39%
Discrepancy		2.9%			Margin	Difference
NY	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	NY	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	57%	93%	5%	2%	Obama	63%	93%	5%	2%
McCain	37%	24%	75%	1%	McCain	36%	24%	75%	1%
Other	4%	--	--		Other	1%	--	--
DNV	3%	--	--
Total	101%	61.9%	30.6%	1.5%	Total	100%	67.2%	30.2%	1.5%
LV		57%	41%		RV		63%	30%
Discrepancy		15.3%					4.1%
CA	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	CA	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	57%	82%	11%	7%	Obama	62%	82%	11%	7%
McCain	35%	7%	89%	4%	McCain	37%	7%	89%	4%
Other	3%	--	--		Other	1%	--	--
DNV	3%	--	--
Total	98%	49.2%	37.4%	5.4%	Total	100%	53.4%	39.8%	5.4%
LV		50%	45%		RV		53%	37%
Discrepancy		6.8%					-2.3%
DE	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	DE	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	57%	87%	10%	3%	Obama	62%	87%	10%	3%
McCain	33%	10%	85%	5%	McCain	37%	10%	85%	5%
Other	3%	--	--		Other	1%	--	--
DNV	4%	--	--
Total	97%	52.9%	33.8%	3.4%	Total	100%	57.6%	37.7%	3.4%
LV		57%	38%		RV		61%	32%
Discrepancy		0.1%					-9.0%
NH	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	NH	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	45%	72%	25%	3%	Obama	54%	72%	25%	3%
McCain	49%	3%	95%	2%	McCain	45%	3%	95%	2%
Other	2%	--	--		Other	1%	--	--
DNV	3%	--	--
Total	99%	33.9%	57.8%	2.3%	Total	100%	40.2%	56.3%	2.3%
LV		44%	51%		RV		na	na
Discrepancy		-16.9%
FL	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	FL	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	46%	43%	11%	45%	Obama	51%	43%	11%	46%
McCain	46%	2%	84%	13%	McCain	48%	2%	84%	14%
Other	3%	--	--		Other	1%	--	--
DNV	3%	--	--
Total	98%	20.7%	43.7%	26.7%	Total	100%	22.9%	45.9%	27.6%
LV		22%	46%	32%	RV		25%	42%	31%
Discrepancy		1.0%					-6.0%
MO	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	MO	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	42%	86%	9%	5%	Obama	49%	86%	9%	5%
McCain	50%	5%	92%	3%	McCain	49%	5%	92%	3%
Other	5%	--	--		Other	2%	--	--
DNV	3%	--	--
Total	100%	38.6%	49.8%	3.6%	Total	100%	44.6%	49.5%	3.6%
LV		40%	53%		RV		39%	50%
Discrepancy		1.8%					6.1%
AR	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	AR	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	37%	82%	12%	6%	Obama	39%	82%	12%	6%
McCain	56%	9%	90%	1%	McCain	59%	9%	90%	1%
Other	3%	--	--		Other	2%	--	--
DNV	4%	--	--
Total	100%	35.4%	54.8%	2.8%	Total	100%	37.3%	57.8%	2.8%
LV		41%	55%		RV		42%	53%
Discrepancy		-5.5%					-9.5%
KY	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	KY	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	36%	87%	12%	1%	Obama	41%	87%	12%	1%
McCain	52%	12%	88%	0%	McCain	57%	12%	88%	0%
Other	4%	--	--		Other	2%	--	--
DNV	6%	--	--
Total	98%	37.6%	50.1%	0.4%	Total	100%	42.5%	55.1%	0.4%
LV		41%	55%		RV		42%	53%
Discrepancy		1.5%					-1.6%
OH	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	OH	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	44%	74%	22%	4%	Obama	51%	74%	22%	4%
McCain	47%	6%	91%	3%	McCain	47%	6%	91%	3%
Other	5%	--	--		Other	2%	--	--
DNV	2%	--	--
Total	98%	35.4%	52.5%	3.2%	Total	100%	40.6%	54.0%	3.2%
LV		40%	55%		RV		43%	49%
Discrepancy		-2.1%					-7.4%
LA	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	LA	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	39%	88%	8%	4%	Obama	40%	88%	8%	4%
McCain	55%	6%	90%	4%	McCain	59%	6%	90%	4%
Other	3%	--	--		Other	1%	--	--
DNV	2%	--	--
Total	99%	37.6%	52.6%	3.8%	Total	100%	38.7%	56.3%	3.8%
LV		33%	54%		RV		na	na
Discrepancy		6.0%
IN	2010	Dem	Rep	Other	IN	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Other
Obama	41%	82%	12%	6%	Obama	50%	82%	12%	6%
McCain	51%	9%	88%	3%	McCain	49%	9%	88%	3%
Other	3%	--	--		Other	1%	--	--
DNV	3%	--	--
Total	98%	38.2%	49.8%	4.0%	Total	100%	45.4%	49.1%	4.0%
LV		35.0%	53%		RV		na	na
Discrepancy		6.4%