2010 Senate Forecast Simulation Model

 

Sept. 26, 2010

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

Registered and Likely Voter Projections

 

The House and Senate forecast models provide Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) projections. The assumption is that the election is held today. Pre-election polls all interview registered voters; likely voters are a sub-sample. They are not separate polls. Democrats always do better in the full RV sample than in the LV sub-sample (see the LVCM model below).

 

LV polls exclude millions of registered voters who actually vote - and most of them are Democrats. In addition, millions of votes are cast but never counted in every election - and most of them are Democratic as well. The good news is that proliferation of electronic voting has reduced the uncounted vote rate.  The bad news is that votes can be switched, stuffed or dropped at the voting machine and/or the central tabulator where they are counted.

 

Since 2000, LV poll projections have closely matched recorded vote shares and final exit polls (which are forced to match the recorded vote). The RV poll projections closely matched the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls.

 

Midterm Forecast

(Probability of GOP majority)

 

Senate Seats

(200 simulated election trials)

LV polls:  Dem 50.5 - Repub 47.5 (5%)

RV polls:  Dem 52.7 - Repub 45.3 (0%)

 

 

The media/pollster drumbeat of a “horse race” is largely based on LV polls. The narrative conditions the public to expect a recorded vote which in fact understates the True Democratic share. The pollsters discount the RV sample for a fraud component, fully expecting that the LV projections will be a close match to the recorded vote - but they never mention the F-word. They know that votes are miscounted in every election. And so their final LV-based polling forecasts are usually quite accurate. Pollsters are paid to predict the recorded vote - not the True Vote.

 

The 2010 midterms are different from the last four elections in that a low Democratic voter turnout is expected. Election fraud will very likely cost the Democrats a few seats in the House and Senate. And the number will be close to the difference between the RV and LV samples. But there may not be RV samples for us to calculate the difference on Election Day. And once again, pollsters will be complemented on how closely their final LV predictions matched the (recorded) vote.

 

For the Senate races polling websites generally display only LV polls. CNN/Time provides both RV and LV samples, but only the LVs are listed at realclearpolitics.com. The Senate RV forecast model is therefore a mix of RV and LV polls. The Democrats lead the RV 12-poll average by 47.8-41.1%. The GOP leads the LV 25-poll average by a much bigger margin: 51.6-38.6%. Without a full corresponding RV poll for every LV sample, a comparable analysis is difficult.

 

In the House, Generic polls have had a more equitable mix of RV and LV samples. But expect a shift to virtually all LV samples as Election Day approaches. The GOP leads the average of 55 LV polls by 45.4-38.5%. For the 83 RV polls the margin is much lower: 45.2-43.7%. The majority of polls are Rasmussen LVs and Gallup RVs.

 

 

 

The Fraud Component

 

In 2004, 2006 and 2008, projections based on final pre-election LV polls underestimated voter turnout and yet closely matched impossible final exit polls and fraudulent recorded vote counts. Projections based on final pre-election RV polls (adjusted for undecided voters) were a close match to the unadjusted exit polls and the True Vote.

 

Pre-election Model:

 Recorded vote share = LV poll projection = RV poll projection + Fraud component

 

Post-election Model:

 Recorded vote share = Final Exit Poll = Unadjusted exit poll + Fraud component

 

Applying the formula to the latest Senate and House Generic Polls:                            

 

Projected GOP Senate Vote Share:

Share = 52.4 = 50.5 + Fraud component

Fraud component = 1.9% (3.8% margin).

 

 

The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM)

 

In 2004, there were 22 million voters who did not vote in 2000. Nearly 60% of newly registered voters were Democrats for Kerry. In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic tsunami gave them control of both houses. In 2008, there were approximately 15 million new voters of whom 70% voted for Obama. All pre-election polls interview registered voters. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the full Registered Voter (RV) sample. LV polls exclude most "new" registered voters – first-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election.

 

Most pollsters use the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM), a series of questions regarding past voting history, residential transience, intent to vote, etc. Since students, transients, low-income voters, immigrant new voters, etc. are much more likely to give "No" answers than established, wealthier, non-transient voters, Republicans are more likely to exceed the cutoff than Democrats. A respondent who indicates “yes” to four out of seven questions might be down-weighted to 50% compared to one who answers “yes” to all seven.

 

The LVCM assigns a weight of zero to all respondents falling below the cutoff, eliminating them from the sample. But these potential voters have more than a zero probability of voting.  The number of "Yes" answers required to qualify as a likely voter is set based on how the pollster wants the sample to turn out. The more Republicans the pollster wants in the sample, the more "Yes" answers are required. This serves to eliminate many Democrats and skews the sample to the GOP.

 

Undecided Voters, Turnout and Final Exit Polls

 

In 1988, 11 million votes were uncounted; in 2000, 6 million; in 2004, 4 million; in 2006, 3 million.

 

In 2004, 2006 and 2008, projections based on final pre-election LV polls closely matched fraudulent recorded vote shares. Projections based on the final pre-election RV polls closely matched the unadjusted exit polls. Undecided voters typically break heavily for the challenger. In each of the last three elections, the Democrats were the challengers, but many pollsters did not allocate accordingly. Democratic voter turnout was underestimated by the pre-election LV polls (see 2004 Final Pre-election polls).

 

Final exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote count (i.e. the final pre-election LV polls). The underlying assumption is that the recorded vote is correct (i.e. zero fraud). In 2004 and 2008, the Final National Exit Polls required an impossible turnout of returning Bush voters (110% and 103%, respectivrely). In the 2004 Final (13660 respondents), the Bush vote shares were increased dramatically over the 12:22am Preliminary NEP (13047 respondents). The NEP media consortium of news outlets  FOX, CNN, AP, ABC, CBS and NBC has suppressed the release of 2008 unadjusted state exit polls and unforced preliminary national exit polls. 

 

Once again, as in every election cycle, the media avoids the real issues. Martha Coakley won the hand-counts in Massachusetts for Ted Kennedy’s seat but lost to Scott Brown; Vic Rawl won the absentee vote but lost to unknown Alvin Greene in the South Carolina Democratic Senate primary; Mike Castle won the absentee ballots but lost to Christine O'Donnell in the Delaware GOP Senate primary. But there has not been a peep about any of this in the mainstream media. Apparently, we must just accept the conventional wisdom that even though the votes have vanished in cyberspace and can never be verified, they were not tampered with. The media lockdown is not limited to past stolen elections. The MSM prepares us for election fraud by listing final pre-election LV polls and ignoring RV polls.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Senate Forecast Simulation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

26-Sep

 

Dem

GOP

Ind

Fraud

0.0%

Vote share deviation

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current seats

57

41

2

MoE

4.0%

Poll margin of error

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UVA

50.0%

Undecided voter allocation to GOP

 

 

 

 

 

Polls

Type

Avg Vote Share

Undec

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12

RV

47.8

41.1

11.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

25

LV

38.6

51.6

9.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

37

RV/LV

41.6

48.2

10.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Simulation Forecast (seats)

 

 

Projection (table)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

37

RV/LV

52.7

45.3

2

RV/LV

Dem

GOP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Gain

 

-

4.3

-

Seats

54

44

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Win Probability

100.0%

0.0%

-

Flip to

1

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seats

LV

50.5

47.5

2

Lean

4

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Gain

 

-

6.5

-

Safe

7

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Win Probability

95.0%

5.0%

-

Tossup

7

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* tossup

 

 

Wtd Share %

 

 

Projected %

 

GOP

 

 

 

 

 

Poll

Seat

Type

Dem

GOP

Unsure

Margin

Dem

GOP

Margin

Win Prob

 

Within

 

 

 

26-Sep

Held

LV

42.5

47.2

10.3

4.7

47.6

52.4

4.7

5.0%

Flip

MoE

 

 

 

Average

By

RV/LV

44.0

45.1

10.8

1.1

49.5

50.5

1.1

0.0%

5

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AK

R

 

42

48

10

6

47.0

53.0

6.0

93%

 

AK

 

 

 

AL

R

 

30

59

11

29

35.5

64.5

29.0

100%

 

 

 

 

 

AR

D

 

34

54

12

20

40.0

60.0

20.0

100%

GOP

 

 

 

 

AZ

R

 

31

53

16

22

39.0

61.0

22.0

100%

 

 

 

 

 

CA

D

 

51

43

6

(8)

54.0

46.0

(8.0)

2%

 

CA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO

D*

RV

47

44

9

(3)

51.5

48.5

(3.0)

23%

 

CO

 

 

 

CT

D

 

52

45

3

(7)

53.5

46.5

(7.0)

4%

 

CT

 

 

 

DE

D

RV

59

34

7

(25)

62.5

37.5

(25.0)

0%

 

 

 

 

 

FL

R*

RV

34

36

30

2

49.0

51.0

2.0

69%

 

FL

 

 

 

GA

R

 

34

52

14

18

41.0

59.0

18.0

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HI

D

 

68

20

12

(48)

74.0

26.0

(48.0)

0%

 

 

 

 

 

IA

R

 

35

55

10

20

40.0

60.0

20.0

100%

 

 

 

 

 

ID

R

 

27

64

9

37

31.5

68.5

37.0

100%

 

 

 

 

 

IL

D*

 

41

44

15

3

48.5

51.5

3.0

77%

GOP

IL

 

 

 

IN

D

 

29

50

21

21

39.5

60.5

21.0

100%

GOP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KS

R

 

23

67

10

44

28.0

72.0

44.0

100%

 

 

 

 

 

KY

R*

RV

46

46

8

0

50.0

50.0

0.0

50%

Dem

KY

 

 

 

LA

R

 

33

54

13

21

39.5

60.5

21.0

100%

 

 

 

 

 

MD

D

 

55

39

6

(16)

58.0

42.0

(16.0)

0%

 

 

 

 

 

MO

R

RV

41

54

5

13

43.5

56.5

13.0

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NC

R

 

36

56

8

20

40.0

60.0

20.0

100%

 

 

 

 

 

ND

D

 

25

69

6

44

28.0

72.0

44.0

100%

GOP

 

 

 

 

NH

R

 

44

49

7

5

47.5

52.5

5.0

89%

 

NH

 

 

 

NV

D

RV

42

34

24

(8)

54.0

46.0

(8.0)

2%

 

NV

 

 

 

NY

D

RV

57

31

12

(26)

63.0

37.0

(26.0)

0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NY

D

RV

63

30

7

(33)

66.5

33.5

(33.0)

0%

 

 

 

 

 

OH

R

RV

42

49

9

7

46.5

53.5

7.0

96%

 

OH

 

 

 

OK

R

 

24

67

9

43

28.5

71.5

43.0

100%

 

 

 

 

 

OR

D

 

54

37

9

(17)

58.5

41.5

(17.0)

0%

 

 

 

 

 

PA

D*

RV

45

45

10

0

50.0

50.0

0.0

50%

 

PA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SC

R

 

30

70

0

40

30.0

70.0

40.0

100%

 

 

 

 

 

SD

R

 

30

70

0

40

30.0

70.0

40.0

100%

 

 

 

 

 

UT

R

 

25

52

23

27

36.5

63.5

27.0

100%

 

 

 

 

 

WA

D

RV

50

44

6

(6)

53.0

47.0

(6.0)

7%

 

WA

 

 

 

VT

D

 

64

29

7

(35)

67.5

32.5

(35.0)

0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WI

D*

 

48

46

6

(2)

51.0

49.0

(2.0)

31%

 

WI

 

 

 

WV

D*

 

47

45

8

(2)

51.0

49.0

(2.0)

31%

 

WV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Probability Distribution of GOP Net Gains

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Majority

 

 

 

 

 

Gain

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

 

 

 

 

Seats

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

 

 

 

 

Probability

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exact

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

1.0%

5.0%

17.5%

25.0%

37.0%

9.5%

5.0%

0.0%

 

 

 

 

At least

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

99.0%

94.0%

76.5%

51.5%

14.5%

5.0%

0.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projection Trend

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LV

 

 

 

RV/LV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Simulation

 

 

Simulation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote Share

GOP Gain

Vote Share

GOP Gain

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem

GOP

Seats

 

Dem

GOP

Seats

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

26-Aug

49.0

51.0

6.2

 

50.5

49.5

4.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1-Sep

48.2

51.8

8.0

 

49.5

50.5

6.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10-Sep

47.9

52.1

7.3

 

49.6

50.4

5.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15-Sep

47.8

52.2

6.7

 

49.3

50.7

4.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

26-Sep

47.6

52.4

6.5

 

49.5

50.5

4.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOP Forecast Sensitivity to Undecided Voter Allocation and Poll Type

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOP

Vote Share %

Seats (table)

 

Seats (simulation)

Net Gain

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UVA

LV

RV/LV

LV

RV/LV

 

LV

RV/LV

LV

RV/LV

 

 

 

 

 

 

40%

51.3

49.5

47

42

 

46.3

43.5

5.3

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

45%

51.8

50.0

48

43

 

47.0

44.3

6.0

3.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

50%

52.4

50.5

48

44

 

47.5

45.3

6.5

4.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

55%

52.9

51.1

48

46

 

48.0

46.1

7.0

5.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

60%

53.4

51.6

48

46

 

48.6

46.7

7.6

5.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOP Forecast Sensitivity to Undecided Voter Allocation and Vote Switch

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RV/LV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote switch

Undecided Voter Allocation to GOP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

to GOP

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOP Net Gain

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0%

1

2

3

5

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1%

3

5

5

7

8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2%

6

8

8

8

9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3%

8

8

8

10

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4%

10

10

10

12

12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Seats

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0%

42

43

44

46

46

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1%

44

46

46

48

49

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2%

47

49

49

49

50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3%

49

49

49

51

51

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4%

51

51

51

53

53