2010 Midterms Analysis: House Generic, Senate RV/ LV Polls, Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

Nov. 26, 2010

 

Conventional and Unconventional Wisdom

 

The 2010 midterms are history. The typical reaction of the pundits is to promote the conventional wisdom that it was a GOP blowout of epic proportions - even bigger than 1994. Yes, the party in power nearly always loses seats in the midterms. The unconventional wisdom is that the Democrats do significantly better than the recorded vote indicates in every election. There is no reason to suspect that 2010 was any different.

 

As usual, the pundits accept the recorded vote and final exit polls as gospel and claim that they show that Obama must move to the center – as if he’s been part of the “professional left” all along. They never question the official results. That’s why they’re pundits: they know that they are paid to present the recorded vote as if it represented the will of the voters. So they avoid the subject of: systemic election fraud - otherwise they might find themselves suspended indefinitely at best.

 

It is standard operating procedure for the exit pollsters to force the Final National Exit Poll (and final state exit polls) to match the recorded vote.

The pundits always assume that the Final NEP returning voter mix is legitimate even though it is always forced to match the recorded vote. As usual, their implicit assumption is that election fraud was not a factor. But it always is.

 

Given that election fraud is systemic, what does the combination of pre-election registered and likely voter polls, preliminary and final exit polls and recorded vote data indicate?  Well, we still have unverifiable elections and a strange reluctance of the Democratic leadership to do anything about it.

 

This analysis utilizes final likely and registered state and national pre-election polls along with preliminary and final exit polls. Likely voter (LV) polls are a sub-sample of registered voter (RV) polls. Since 2000, LV polls have closely matched the recorded vote while RV polls closely matched the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls.

 

2010 Election Forecast Model

 

House: The GOP has a 239-188 seat margin.

The model predicted:

A 234-201 GOP House based on the final 30 LV Generic polls (the GOP led by 48.7-41.9%).

A 221-214 GOP House based on the final 19 RV Generic polls (the GOP led by 45.1-44.4%).

The Democratic margin was 6.1% better in the RV polls than the LV polls.

 

The GOP led the Final National Exit Poll by 7.4%, within 0.62% of the 30 Generic LV poll margin.

 

Senate: The Democrats have a 51-47 seat margin.

The model predicted:

A 50-48 Democratic Senate based on 37 LV polls (the GOP led by 48.1-43.5%).

A 53-45 Democratic Senate based on a combination of 18 RV and 19 LV polls (the Democrats led by 45.2-44.6%).

The Democrats did 5% better in the RV polls.

 

CNN/Time provided RV and LV polling data for 18 Senate races (Table 1). Note that RV polls were not listed in the realclearpolitics.com polling averages. The Democrats led the RV polls in 11 states. They led the LV polls in 8 states (including the WV tie). They won 9.

The Democrats led the RV poll average by 49.2-40.6%. They led the corresponding LV polls by 46.6-45.8%.

The Democrats did 8% better in the RV polls.

 

Table 2 compares 18 likely voter and exit polls to the recorded vote.

 The average GOP 4.2% recorded margin exceeded the average exit poll margin by 2.9%.

The average GOP 6.3% LV poll margin exceeded the average recorded margin by 2.1%.

 

The Democrats were going to lose seats in the Senate and House. They were surely going to lose in Arkansas. And they did. They were expected to hold on to CA, WA, WV, NY, DE and OR. And they did.

 

But IL, NV, PA, CO and WI were expected to be close. And they were. The Democrats won NV and CO. Colorado and Washington vote primarily by mail. The GOP won WI, IL and PA. Or did they? The Democrats led the final Illinois and Pennsylvania RV polls. The states vote by machine.

 

The Final National Exit Poll: Always Forced to Match the Recorded Vote

 

The 2010 Final National Exit Poll indicated that 45% of the electorate were returning Obama voters and 45% were McCain voters. Obama's recorded vote margin was 52.9-45.6%.  Of course, the pundits will claim that the 7.3% discrepancy was due to millions of unenthusiastic Democrats who did not return to vote in 2010. Setting the Final NEP returning voter mix to the 2008 recorded vote, the discrepancy from the 19 RV poll margin was an even lower 0.07%.

 

In 2008 the National Election Pool, a consortium of six mainstream media giants which sponsors the exit polls, decided not to release unadjusted (or preliminary) state and national exit poll data. And they won’t in 2010, either. They don’t want anyone to see the adjustments they had to make to the return voter mix and/or the vote shares in order to match the recorded vote.

 

In the exit polls, changes are made to the return voter mix and vote share as the polls are adjusted to match the changing vote count in real time - with no change in the number of respondents. Of course, this is standard operating procedure.  Who cares if the central tabulators are being hacked in real-time?

 

Obama won the 2008 recorded vote by 9.5 million. But his True Vote margin was at least twice that; his recorded share understated his True share by 4-5%. If the 2010 NEP returning vote mix is adjusted to match the 2008 recorded share, the Democratic share is within 1% of the GOP - matching the pre-election RV polls. The adjusted 53/45% mix includes the discount for unenthusiastic Democrats who did not return to vote in 2010.

 

 

         Final 2008 National Exit Poll                                                           2008 True Vote                           

         (forced to match recorded vote)                                                     (Mix set to 2004 True Vote)                       

 

Voted 04     Mix            Obama     McCain    Other                        Voted 04    Mix          Obama     McCain     Other

DNV            13%            71%          27%          2%                            DNV           13%         71%          27%          2%

Kerry          37%            89%          9%           2%                            Kerry         46%         89%          9%            2%

Bush           46%            17%          82%          1%                            Bush          40%         17%          82%          1%

Other          4%              66%          24%          10%                          Other         1%           66%          24%          10%

                                                                                                                                                                   

Total          100.0%       52.6%        45.5%       1.9%                         Total         100.0%     57.6%        40.7%        1.7%

 

 

       Final 2010 National Exit Poll                                       Final 2010 National Exit Poll (adjusted)     

       (forced to match recorded vote)                                                (Mix set to 2008 recorded vote)                       

           

Voted 08   Mix            Dem          Rep         Other                     Voted 08   Mix             Dem          Rep        Other

Obama     45%            84%           13%         3%                          Obama     53%            84%           13%         3%

McCain     45%            7%             91%         2%                          McCain     45%            7%             91%         2%

Other        3%              33%           56%         11%                        Other        2%              33%           56%         11%

DNV          4%              38%           60%         2%                          DNV          -                 38%           60%         2%

           

Total        97%            43.5%         50.9%       2.7%                       Total        100%           48.3%         49.0%      2.7%

LV avg     30 polls      41.9%         48.7%       9.4%                       RV avg     19 polls      44.4%         45.1%      10.5%

 

LV margin discrepancy from Final total: -0.62%                       RV margin discrepancy from Final total: 0.07%          

 

 

Why Oregon is Important

 

In the 1992 presidential election, Oregon had the highest exit poll discrepancy (13.6%) of any state. In 1996, 10% of votes cast were uncounted. Oregon had it wrong in 1992 and 1996. So in 1998, it implemented vote by mail. It is the only state which mandates randomly selected counties for hand counts. In 2000, Oregon exactly matched Gore’s recorded margin (Nader had 6%). Oregon had it right in 2000.

 

In 2004, Bush won the recorded national vote by 50.7-48.3%. Oregon and Colorado were the only battleground states in which Kerry improved his share over Gore.  His 51.4% Oregon share closely matched the unadjusted 52% state exit poll aggregate, unlike the other Battleground states.  Kerry did 3.1% better in Oregon than he did nationally. Oregon had it right in 2004, just like it did in 2000.

 

The evidence is overwhelming that the 2004 election was stolen. The Oregon recorded vote confirms it. Exit pollsters have not released the unadjusted 2008 exit polls so we can’t compare them to the recorded vote shares. But we have the 2008 National Exit Poll. It’s a smoking gun, just like it was in 2004 and 2006. The NEP indicates an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters, a 450% turnout of living third-party voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Since an impossible returning voter mix was necessary in order to match the recorded vote, the recorded vote had to be impossible as well. It is therefore a certainty that Obama did much better than his recorded 52.9% share indicates.

 

In 2008, Oregon voted 56.7% for Obama, matching the National True Vote Model. Unadjusted exit polls have not been released. Oregon had it right in 2008, just like it did in 2004 and 2000. But that is to be expected. As a battleground state, Oregon should be representative of the True national electorate.

 

In 2010 the Oregon  senate race was never in question. Senator Ron Wyden led by 20% in the pre-election LV polls. He had a 57% recorded share, matching Obama’s 2008 share. How does one explain the 25% discrepancy from the GOP 52-45% national margin?

 

Oregon had it right in 2010, just like it did in 2008, 2004 and 2000. Since the 2000 election, Oregon’s recorded vote has consistently matched pre-election polls and the unadjusted national exit polls. Is this unique track record due to the fact that Oregon mandates hand counts of optically scanned ballots in randomly selected counties as a check on the central tabulators machine counts? The historical evidence strongly suggests that Oregon’s random hand-counts are a deterrent to Election Fraud.

 

Consider the close senate races the Democrats lost. How did they differ from Oregon?

 

Wisconsin gave Obama 56.2% in 2008, closely matching his Oregon share (56.7%).  But the popular progressive Sen. Russ Finegold lost by 5% in a traditionally progressive state. He trailed the final RV poll by 3% (within the 4% pre-election poll margin of error). How does one explain the 5% loss and Wyden’s 20% win in Oregon? Was it because Wyden was a popular incumbent? So was Finegold.  Or  was it due to unverifiable touch screens (DRE) and/or the central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?

 

Illinois: Obama 61.9%

Giannoulias lost by 2%. He led the RV polls by 42-38 and the LV polls by 43-42.  Was the loss due to unverifiable DREs and rigged central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?

 

Pennsylvania: Obama 54.5%

The progressive Sestak lost by 2%   He led the RV polls by 47-43 and trailed the LV polls by 49-45. He led the exit poll at 1015pm but fell behind at 117am as the poll was being matched to the vote with no change in respondents. Was the loss due to unverifiable DREs and rigged central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?

 

How come these battleground states shifted to the GOP while Oregon was a Democratic landslide?  Is Oregon no longer a battleground state? Or is it because unlike the other battleground states, Oregon’s recorded vote reflects the actual intent of the voters due to the fact that it is the only 100% paper ballot state which mandates that counties are randomly selected for hand-counts as a check on the central tabulator machine counts?

 

Consider the senate races the Democrats won. How are they similar to Oregon?

 

Washington: Obama 57.4%

Murray won by 52-48%, matching the RV poll margin. Voting is nearly 100% vote by maill.

 

Colorado: Obama 53.7%

Bennett won by a slim 48-47%. He led RV polls by 5%. Voting method is mail and optical scanners. 

 

California: Obama 61.9%

Boxer won by 52-42%. She led the RV polls by 53-37, LV 50-45. Voting is by mail and optical scannners.

 

New York: Obama 62.8%

Gillibrand won by 62-36%, a close match to the 60-33 RV poll.  Optical scanners replaced levers.

Schumer won by 65-33%, a close match to the 63-30 RV poll.

 

Washington now votes virtually 100% by mail. Colorado and California also had a high percentage of mail-in paper and absentee ballots. Is it just a coincidence that the Democrats won these states? And that in NY, both senate candidates exceeded Obama’s recorded share by 3-4%.

 

Fraud Factors

 

In 2004, election fraud in California and New York accounted for approximately 2.3 million of Bush’s 3.0 million “mandate”. But 2010 was not a presidential election; there was no incentive for the GOP to pad the national vote in solid Democratic states.

 

The Democrats lost close elections that were ripe for fraud (WI, IL and PA). The states had these factors in common:

1)      Unverifiable DRE’s 

2)      No mandated random hand-counts of machine-counted optical scanned ballots.

3)      Progressive candidates

4)      The GOP led the final LV polls

5)      Democrats  led the final RV polls (IL,PA) and were close in WI

6)      Late exit poll shift to the GOP

7)      In the senate exit polls, a percentage is given for returning “Other” and “DNV” – but the vote shares are missing. Why?

 

In 2000, there were 180,000 uncounted ballots in Florida, the vast majority for Gore.

In 2002, Georgia Sen. Max Cleland lost despite a solid lead in pre-election polls. Georgia was the first state to vote exclusively with DRE touch screens.

In 2004, Kerry won the state unadjusted exit poll aggregate  by 52-47%. But Bush won the recorded vote by 2.4% - a 7.4% margin (WPE) differential.

In 2006, 18,000 votes mysteriously vanished in Florida's 13th congressional district. There was no investigation.

In 2008, Obama won the New Hampshire primary hand-counts, but lost the machine counts by the same margin. The media reported Hillary’s “miracle” win.

In 2010, Martha Coakley won the hand-counted ballots but lost the machine counts in the Massachusetts special election for Ted Kennedy’s seat. She conceded long before the votes were counted. In the South Carolina Democratic primary, Vic Rawl easily won the hand-counted paper ballots, but unknown Alvin Green won the machine counts. In a pitiful post-election “investigation”, Green was the chosen candidate despite the overwhelming evidence of fraud.

 

Impossible 1988-2004 State Presidential Exit Poll Shifts to the GOP

 

In Jan. 2005, exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released the 2004 Election Evaluation Report  in response to the 2004 exit poll controversy, but it also included unadjusted exit poll data for 1988-2004. The data revealed that the massive 2004 exit poll discrepancy was not an aberration. The pollsters concluded that although their 2004 survey design was near-perfect, the 6.5% within precinct discrepancy (WPE) was due to reluctance on the part of Bush voters to be interviewed. This theory was refuted by the exit pollsters own data which showed just the opposite: Bush voter response was greater in Bush strongholds than in Kerry strongholds. But the full report showed much more than that.

 

In the five presidential elections from 1988-2004, there were 238 state presidential exit polls, 194 of which red-shifted from the Democrat to the Republican. Of the 108 exit polls that exceeded the 2% margin of error, 99 red-shifted to the Republicans. Of the 65 that exceeded a very conservative 3% MoE, all but one red-shifted to the GOP. At the 95% confidence level, one would expect 12 of the 238 polls to exceed the MoE and be evenly split between the Democrat and the Republican. The probability of the shifts magnitude and direction were less than 1 in 10^30. The bulk of the discrepancies were in strong Democratic states (4.9 WPE) and the Battleground states (3.8 WPE).  In GOP red states, the average WPE was just 2.3. Why the miscounts?

 

Prior to 2004, they were primarily due to millions of uncounted votes in each election (70-80% Democratic). The HAVA-blessed unverifiable DRE’s only caused some of the damage; the rest was due to central tabulators which aggregated votes cast on DRE’s optical scanners, mechanical levers and punched cards. Virtually 100% of the votes are tallied on the central computers. Optical scanners have the virtue of a paper ballot, unlike the other voting machines – but the paper ballots are never counted (the 2008 MN senate election was an exception).

 

Table 1: Registered vs. Likely Voters vs. Recorded Vote

 

CNN/Time Poll Group

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.96

correlation ratio between RV and LV margins

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Discrepancy

Discrepancy

18

RV full sample

 

 

LV sub-sample

 

 

Recorded Share

 

Final - RV Poll

RV Margin

Polls

Dem

Rep

Margin

 

Dem

Rep

Margin

 

Dem

Rep

Margin

Dem

GOP

WSD

Unwtd Avg

46.4

41.1

5.3

 

45.0

46.2

(1.2)

 

48.3

47.9

0.4

1.9

6.8

(4.9)

Wtd Avg

48.7

39.6

9.1

 

46.6

45.8

0.9

 

9

9

 

 

 

 

Win

11

7

4

 

7

10

(3)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AK

24

36

(12)

 

23

37

(14)

 

40.7

59.3

(18.6)

16.7

23.3

6.6

AR

42

53

(11)

 

41

55

(14)

 

37.2

57.6

(20.4)

(4.8)

4.6

9.4

CA

53

37

16

 

50

45

5

 

52.2

42.4

9.8

(0.8)

5.4

6.2

CO

49

44

5

 

46

47

(1)

 

47.5

47.0

0.5

(1.5)

3.0

4.5

CT

56

37

19

 

54

44

10

 

54.2

44.2

10.0

(1.8)

7.2

9.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DE

61

32

29

 

57

38

19

 

56.6

40.0

16.6

(4.4)

8.0

12.4

FL

31

42

(11)

 

32

46

(14)

 

31.5

44.0

(12.5)

0.5

2.0

1.5

IL

42

38

4

 

43

42

1

 

46.2

48.2

(2.3)

4.1

10.4

6.3

KY

44

46

(2)

 

43

50

(7)

 

44.1

55.9

(11.8)

0.1

9.9

9.8

MO

39

50

(11)

 

40

53

(13)

 

40.6

54.3

(13.7)

1.6

4.3

2.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NV

43

39

4

 

45

49

(4)

 

50.2

44.6

5.6

7.2

5.6

(1.6)

NY1

60

33

27

 

55

41

14

 

62.3

37.7

24.6

2.3

4.7

2.4

NY2

63

30

33

 

57

41

16

 

66.5

33.5

33.1

3.5

3.5

(0.1)

OH

43

49

(6)

 

40

55

(15)

 

39.0

57.3

(18.3)

(4.0)

8.3

12.3

PA

47

43

4

 

45

49

(4)

 

49.0

51.0

(2.0)

2.0

8.0

6.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WA

48

44

4

 

51

43

8

 

51.9

48.1

1.6

2.8

5.2

2.4

WI

45

48

(3)

 

44

52

(8)

 

47.0

51.9

(4.9)

2.0

3.9

1.9

WV

45

38

7

 

44

44

0

 

53.5

43.4

10.1

8.5

5.4

(3.1)

 

 

Table 2: Recorded Vote vs. Preliminary Exit Poll vs. RCP LV Poll Margin

 

 

Recorded

 

GOP

Exit Poll

 

GOP

Margin

RCP10/31

State

Dem

GOP

Margin

Dem

GOP

Margin

Vote-EP

Margin

 

LA

37.7%

56.6%

18.9%

43.5%

53.0%

9.5%

9.4%

15.0%

OH

39.0%

57.3%

18.3%

44.6%

53.9%

9.3%

9.0%

18.2%

FL*

50.0%

48.8%

-1.2%

53.2%

45.8%

-7.4%

6.2%

19.0%

NH

36.5%

60.4%

23.9%

40.1%

57.9%

17.8%

6.1%

15.0%

WI

47.0%

51.9%

4.9%

49.5%

50.0%

0.5%

4.4%

7.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CT

54.2%

44.2%

-10.0%

56.4%

42.1%

-14.3%

4.3%

-10.7%

AR

37.2%

57.6%

20.4%

40.2%

57.3%

17.1%

3.3%

18.3%

WA

51.9%

48.1%

-3.8%

52.7%

45.8%

-6.9%

3.1%

0.0%

MO

40.6%

54.3%

13.7%

42.5%

53.5%

11.0%

2.7%

10.4%

CO

47.5%

47.0%

-0.5%

49.5%

47.0%

-2.5%

2.0%

2.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IL

46.2%

48.2%

2.3%

47.0%

47.5%

0.5%

1.8%

2.8%

DE

56.6%

40.0%

-16.6%

57.7%

39.8%

-17.9%

1.3%

-14.0%

KY

44.1%

55.9%

11.8%

44.5%

55.0%

10.5%

1.3%

11.0%

PA

49.0%

51.0%

2.0%

50.1%

49.9%

-0.2%

1.8%

4.0%

CA

52.2%

42.4%

-9.8%

53.5%

43.5%

-10.0%

0.2%

-4.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WV

53.5%

43.4%

-10.1%

53.6%

43.5%

-10.1%

0.0%

-4.0%

IN

40.0%

54.7%

14.7%

40.5%

56.1%

15.6%

-0.9%

19.3%

NV

50.2%

44.6%

-5.6%

47.5%

46.5%

-1.0%

-4.6%

4.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average

46.3%

50.4%

4.1

47.9%

49.4%

1.5%

2.9%

6.3%

 

Correlation

Dem

1.00

-0.94

-0.99

0.95

0.96

-0.96

-0.42

-0.85

RCP

-0.85

0.85

0.86

-0.81

0.85

0.84

0.37

1.00

 

 

Table 3: Late Exit Poll Timeline

 

PA

117am

2666 respondents

 

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

48

56

44

Female

52

45

54

Total

100.0

50.3

49.2

 

Final

51.0

49.0

 

 

 

 

IL

203am

2394

 

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

49

50

45

Female

51

46

49

Total

100

48.0

47.0

 

Final

48.4

46.1

 

 

 

 

CO

611am

1048

 

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

50

54

43

Female

50

40

56

Total

100.0

47.0

49.5

 

Final

49.8

50.2

 

 

 

 

WI

1053pm

2169

 

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

50

56

42

Female

50

48

52

Total

100

52.0

47.0

 

Final

52.4

47.6

 

 

 

 

WA

609am

1129

 

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

48

51

47

Female

52

41

58

Total

100.0

45.8

52.7

 

Final

48.1

51.9

 

 

 

 

NV

208am

3785

 

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

50

48

46

Female

50

42

53

Total

100.0

45.0

49.5

 

Final

44.6

50.2

 

 

 

 

FL

1119am

3176

 

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

44

54

18

Female

56

44

23

Total

100.0

48.4

20.8

 

 

 

 

WV

1142pm

1723

 

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

48

46

51

Female

52

41

56

Total

100

43.4

53.6

 

Final

43.4

53.5

 

 

 

 

MO

204am

2507

 

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

50

58

36

Female

50

49

46

Total

100.0

53.5

41.0

 

Final

54.3

40.6

 

 

 

 

CT

1157pm

1455

 

 

Mix

GOP

Dem

Male

51

45

52

Female

49

39

60

Total

100.0

42.1

55.9

 

Final

44.2

54.2

 

Table 4:  Final exit polls vs. Adjusted Returning Voter Mix

 

                     2010 Final National Exit Poll                                                     2008 Final National Exit Poll     

                     17504 respondents                                                                    17836 respondents                    

                     Gender      Mix            Dem           Rep          Other                 Mix    Obama      McCain Other

                     Male          48%            41%            55%           4%                     47%    49%           48%      3%

                     Female     52%            48%            49%           3%                     53%    56%           43%      1%

                                                                                                                                                

                     Share        100%          44.6%         51.9%        3.5%                  100%   52.7%         45.4%    1.9%

 

 

 

 

Final Exit Polls

 

 

Adjusted Final Exit Polls

 

 

(forced to match recorded vote)

 

 

(mix adjusted to 2008 recorded vote)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National

2010

 

 

 

 

National 

2008

 

 

 

 

 

Voted 08

Mix

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Voted 08

Mix

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

45%

84%

13%

3%

 

Obama

53%

84%

13%

3%

 

McCain

45%

7%

91%

2%

 

McCain

45%

7%

91%

2%

 

Other

3%

33%

56%

11%

 

Other

2%

33%

56%

11%

 

DNV

4%

38%

60%

2%

 

DNV

-

38%

60%

2%

 

 

Total

97%

43.5%

50.9%

2.7%

 

Total

100%

48.3%

49.0%

2.7%

 

LV avg

30 polls

41.9%

48.7%

9.4%

 

RV avg

19 polls

44.4%

45.1%

10.5%

 

Discrepancy

-0.62%

 

 

 

 

 

0.07%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WI

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

WI

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

49%

84%

15%

1%

 

Obama

56%

84%

15%

1%

 

McCain

43%

7%

93%

0%

 

McCain

43%

7%

93%

0%

 

Other

3%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

5%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

100%

44.2%

47.3%

0.5%

 

Total

100%

50.1%

48.4%

0.5%

 

LV

 

44%

52%

 

 

RV

 

45%

48%

 

 

Discrepancy

4.8%

 

 

 

 

 

4.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IL

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

IL

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

55%

78%

17%

5%

 

Obama

62%

78%

17%

5%

 

McCain

38%

3%

93%

4%

 

McCain

37%

3%

93%

4%

 

Other

4%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

100%

44.0%

44.7%

4.3%

 

Total

100%

49.5%

45.0%

4.3%

 

LV

 

43%

42%

 

 

RV

 

42%

38%

 

 

Discrepancy

-1.7%

 

 

 

 

 

0.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PA

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

PA

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

49%

88%

12%

0%

 

Obama

54%

88%

12%

0%

 

McCain

45%

9%

91%

0%

 

McCain

44%

9%

91%

0%

 

Other

3%

--

--

 

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

100%

47.2%

46.8%

0.0%

 

Total

100%

51.5%

46.5%

0.0%

 

LV

 

45%

49%

 

 

RV

 

47%

43%

 

 

Discrepancy

4.3%

 

 

 

 

 

1.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CT

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

CT

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

55%

84%

14%

2%

 

Obama

60%

84%

14%

2%

 

McCain

48%

16%

82%

2%

 

McCain

38%

16%

82%

2%

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

DNV

4%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

109%

53.9%

47.1%

2.1%

 

Total

100%

56.5%

39.6%

2.1%

 

LV

 

54%

44%

 

 

RV

 

56%

37%

 

 

Discrepancy

-3.2%

 

 

 

 

 

-2.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NV

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

NV

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

45%

83%

11%

6%

 

Obama

55%

83%

11%

6%

 

McCain

43%

10%

86%

4%

 

McCain

43%

10%

86%

4%

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

DNV

4%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

94%

41.7%

41.9%

4.4%

 

Total

100%

50.0%

43.0%

4.4%

 

LV

 

45%

49%

 

 

RV

 

43%

38%

 

 

Discrepancy

3.7%

 

 

 

 

 

1.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WA

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

WA

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

51%

89%

11%

0%

 

Obama

57%

89%

11%

0%

 

McCain

38%

4%

96%

0%

 

McCain

40%

4%

96%

0%

 

Other

5%

--

--

 

 

Other

3%

--

--

 

 

DNV

6%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

100%

46.9%

42.1%

0.0%

 

Total

100%

52.3%

44.7%

0.0%

 

LV

 

51%

43%

 

 

RV

 

48%

44%

 

 

Discrepancy

-3.2%

 

 

 

 

 

3.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

CO

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

47%

89%

8%

3%

 

Obama

54%

89%

8%

3%

 

McCain

43%

8%

86%

6%

 

McCain

45%

8%

86%

6%

 

Other

5%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

98%

45.3%

40.7%

4.0%

 

Total

100%

51.7%

43.0%

4.0%

 

LV

 

45%

47%

 

 

RV

 

49%

44%

 

 

Discrepancy

6.5%

 

 

 

 

 

3.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OR

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

OR

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

53%

88%

9%

3%

 

Obama

56.7%

88%

9%

3%

 

McCain

36%

19%

80%

1%

 

McCain

40.4%

19%

80%

1%

 

Other

6%

--

--

 

 

Other

2.9%

--

--

 

 

DNV

5%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

100%

53.5%

33.6%

2.0%

 

Total

100%

57.6%

37.4%

2.0%

 

LV

 

55%

38%

 

 

RV

 

na

na

 

 

Discrepancy

2.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NY

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

NY

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

57%

93%

5%

2%

 

Obama

63%

93%

5%

2%

 

McCain

37%

24%

75%

1%

 

McCain

36%

24%

75%

1%

 

Other

4%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

101%

61.9%

30.6%

1.5%

 

Total

100%

67.2%

30.2%

1.5%

 

LV

 

57%

41%

 

 

RV

 

63%

30%

 

 

Discrepancy

15.3%

 

 

 

 

 

4.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CA

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

CA

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

57%

82%

11%

7%

 

Obama

62%

82%

11%

7%

 

McCain

35%

7%

89%

4%

 

McCain

37%

7%

89%

4%

 

Other

3%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

98%

49.2%

37.4%

5.4%

 

Total

100%

53.4%

39.8%

5.4%

 

LV

 

50%

45%

 

 

RV

 

53%

37%

 

 

Discrepancy

6.8%

 

 

 

 

 

-2.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DE

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

DE

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

57%

87%

10%

3%

 

Obama

62%

87%

10%

3%

 

McCain

33%

10%

85%

5%

 

McCain

37%

10%

85%

5%

 

Other

3%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

4%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

97%

52.9%

33.8%

3.4%

 

Total

100%

57.6%

37.7%

3.4%

 

LV

 

57%

38%

 

 

RV

 

61%

32%

 

 

Discrepancy

0.1%

 

 

 

 

 

-9.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NH

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

NH

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

45%

72%

25%

3%

 

Obama

54%

72%

25%

3%

 

McCain

49%

3%

95%

2%

 

McCain

45%

3%

95%

2%

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

99%

33.9%

57.8%

2.3%

 

Total

100%

40.2%

56.3%

2.3%

 

LV

 

44%

51%

 

 

RV

 

na

na

 

 

Discrepancy

-16.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FL

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

FL

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

46%

43%

11%

45%

 

Obama

51%

43%

11%

46%

 

McCain

46%

2%

84%

13%

 

McCain

48%

2%

84%

14%

 

Other

3%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

98%

20.7%

43.7%

26.7%

 

Total

100%

22.9%

45.9%

27.6%

 

LV

 

22%

46%

32%

 

RV

 

25%

42%

31%

 

Discrepancy

1.0%

 

 

 

 

 

-6.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MO

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

MO

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

42%

86%

9%

5%

 

Obama

49%

86%

9%

5%

 

McCain

50%

5%

92%

3%

 

McCain

49%

5%

92%

3%

 

Other

5%

--

--

 

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

100%

38.6%

49.8%

3.6%

 

Total

100%

44.6%

49.5%

3.6%

 

LV

 

40%

53%

 

 

RV

 

39%

50%

 

 

Discrepancy

1.8%

 

 

 

 

 

6.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AR

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

AR

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

37%

82%

12%

6%

 

Obama

39%

82%

12%

6%

 

McCain

56%

9%

90%

1%

 

McCain

59%

9%

90%

1%

 

Other

3%

--

--

 

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

DNV

4%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

100%

35.4%

54.8%

2.8%

 

Total

100%

37.3%

57.8%

2.8%

 

LV

 

41%

55%

 

 

RV

 

42%

53%

 

 

Discrepancy

-5.5%

 

 

 

 

 

-9.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KY

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

KY

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

36%

87%

12%

1%

 

Obama

41%

87%

12%

1%

 

McCain

52%

12%

88%

0%

 

McCain

57%

12%

88%

0%

 

Other

4%

--

--

 

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

DNV

6%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

98%

37.6%

50.1%

0.4%

 

Total

100%

42.5%

55.1%

0.4%

 

LV

 

41%

55%

 

 

RV

 

42%

53%

 

 

Discrepancy

1.5%

 

 

 

 

 

-1.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OH

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

OH

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

44%

74%

22%

4%

 

Obama

51%

74%

22%

4%

 

McCain

47%

6%

91%

3%

 

McCain

47%

6%

91%

3%

 

Other

5%

--

--

 

 

Other

2%

--

--

 

 

DNV

2%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

98%

35.4%

52.5%

3.2%

 

Total

100%

40.6%

54.0%

3.2%

 

LV

 

40%

55%

 

 

RV

 

43%

49%

 

 

Discrepancy

-2.1%

 

 

 

 

 

-7.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LA

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

LA

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

39%

88%

8%

4%

 

Obama

40%

88%

8%

4%

 

McCain

55%

6%

90%

4%

 

McCain

59%

6%

90%

4%

 

Other

3%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

2%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

99%

37.6%

52.6%

3.8%

 

Total

100%

38.7%

56.3%

3.8%

 

LV

 

33%

54%

 

 

RV

 

na

na

 

 

Discrepancy

6.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IN

2010

Dem

Rep

Other

 

IN

2008

Dem

Rep

Other

 

Obama

41%

82%

12%

6%

 

Obama

50%

82%

12%

6%

 

McCain

51%

9%

88%

3%

 

McCain

49%

9%

88%

3%

 

Other

3%

--

--

 

 

Other

1%

--

--

 

 

DNV

3%

--

--

 

 

DNV

--

--

--

 

 

Total

98%

38.2%

49.8%

4.0%

 

Total

100%

45.4%

49.1%

4.0%

 

LV

 

35.0%

53%

 

 

RV

 

na

na

 

 

Discrepancy

6.4%