2011 Wisconsin Supreme Court True Vote Analysis

 

Richard Charnin

 

July 2, 2011

 

In the 2011 Wisconsin Supreme Court election, Kloppenburg (Ind) apparently won by 200 votes. But two days later, 14,000 votes were “found” in Waukesha County. Prosser (Rep) was declared the unofficial winner by 7,000 votes.  The subsequent recount was a travesty in which scores of slit ballot bags were photographed, as were poll tapes dated a week before the election. A stack of 50 consecutive Prosser ballots were found in Verona where Kloppenburg won 75% of the recorded vote; the probability is effectively absolute zero (0.25^50).

 

The True Vote Model (TVM) indicates that Kloppenburg won the election.

 

Assuming a 50% turnout of both Obama and McCain voters, the recorded margin required that Kloppenburg must have won an implausibly low 81% of returning Obama voters while Prosser had 93% of returning McCain voters. If Kloppenburg had 88% of Obama voters and split 70,000 returning third-party and new voters with Prosser, then she won by 99,000 votes with a 53.3% vote share.

 

The sensitivity analysis tables for Wisconsin, Milwaukee and Waukesha display vote shares and margins for 25 turnout and vote share scenario combinations.

 

Kloppenburg won Milwaukee County by 29,700 recorded votes, 56.4-43.4% (Obama had 67.3%). In order to match the recorded vote, Prosser had to win 20% of Obama voters and 95% of McCain voters (assuming an equal 50% Obama/50% McCain voter turnout). Obama had a 36% margin compared to just 13% for Kloppenburg. Are we to believe that Prosser won 1 out of 5 returning Obama voters? If we assume that Kloppenburg had 90% of Obama voters, then she won by 61,000 votes with a 63% share. One must conclude that election fraud cut Kloppenburg’s margin in Milwaukee County by approximately 31,000 votes.

 

Prosser won Waukesha County by 59,500 recorded votes, 73.8-26.2% (Obama had 37.7%). In order to match the recorded vote, Prosser had to win 35% of Obama voters and 97% of McCain voters (assuming an equal 55% Obama/55% McCain voter turnout). Are we expected to believe that more than 1 in 3 Obama voters defected to Prosser? That is beyond implausible. On the other hand, if we assume that Kloppenburg won a very plausible 90% of Obama voters, then it appears that election fraud inflated Prosser’s Waukesha margin by around 23,000 votes.

 

The True Vote Model is predicated on determining a) a feasible estimate of returning voters from the prior election and b) an estimate of how voters in the current election cast votes. Typically, the number of returning voters is a function of prior election total votes cast, voter mortality and estimated turnout. The 2008 Presidential True Vote is used as the basis for calculating returning voters.  Annual Voter mortality is 1.25%, therefore approximately 3% of 2008 voters passed on prior to the election. New voters were assumed to be split equally between Kloppenburg and Prosser.

 

Given the 2010 recorded vote, we calculate new voters as follows:

 

Total Votes = returning 2008 voter turnout + New 2010 voters

 New 2010 voters = 2010 vote – returning 2008 voter turnout

 

Mainstream media pundits never mention the fact that it is standard operating procedure for exit pollsters to force all final national and state exit polls to match the recorded vote. They accept the recorded vote as gospel and never question the official results. But the evidence is overwhelming that in virtually every election, the recorded vote does not equal the True Vote because of systemic election fraud. It's ten years and counting since Florida 2000 - and the beat goes on.

 

This easy to use spreadsheet calculates the True Vote for all 72 Wisconsin counties:

https://spreadsheets0.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en_US&key=te2HeP9nAAlYabuL2ZUrm6w&hl=en_US#gid=0

 

 

Wisconsin True Vote Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

97%

 

 

Recorded

Vote

 

 

 

 

Voted 08

Recorded

True

Voted

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Voted 08

Mix

J Klo

Prosser

 

Obama

56.2%

56.5%

1685

1635

50%

817

Obama

54.6%

81.5%

18.5%

 

 

McCain

42.3%

42.0%

1253

1215

50%

608

McCain

40.6%

7%

93%

 

 

Other

1.5%

1.5%

45

43

50%

22

Other

1.4%

50%

50%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

50

DNV

3.4%

50%

50%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

100%

2983

2983

2894

50.0%

1497

Total

100%

49.7%

50.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Votes

1497

745

752

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

(7.6)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

49.8%

50.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

745

752

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Voted 08

Mix

Kloppenburg

Prosser

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama

54.6%

88%

12%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

McCain

40.6%

7%

93%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other

1.4%

50%

50%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DNV

3.4%

50%

50%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

100.0%

53.3%

46.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Votes

1497

798

699

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

99

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kloppenburg share

 

 

 

 

 

Kloppenburg share

 

 

Obama

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout

Recorded

 

%Obama

True

 

 

%McCain

Recorded

 

%Obama

True

 

 

81.5%

84%

86%

88%

90%

 

 

81.5%

84%

86%

88%

90%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

52%

50.4%

51.9%

53.0%

54.1%

55.3%

 

9%

50.6%

51.9%

53.0%

54.1%

55.2%

51%

50.1%

51.5%

52.6%

53.7%

54.8%

 

8%

50.2%

51.5%

52.6%

53.7%

54.8%

50%

49.7%

51.1%

52.2%

53.3%

54.4%

 

7%

49.7%

51.1%

52.2%

53.3%

54.4%

49%

49.4%

50.7%

51.8%

52.9%

54.0%

 

3%

48.1%

49.5%

50.6%

51.7%

52.8%

48%

49.1%

50.4%

51.4%

52.5%

53.5%

 

0%

46.9%

48.3%

49.4%

50.5%

51.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

52%

13

56

90

124

158

 

9%

17

58

90

123

156

51%

3

44

78

111

144

 

8%

5

45

78

111

144

50%

(7.6)

33

66

99

131

 

7%

(7.6)

33

66

99

131

49%

(18)

22

54

86

118

 

3%

(56)

(15)

17

50

83

48%

(28)

11

42

74

105

 

0%

(93)

(52)

(19)

14

46

 

 

 

 

 

Milwaukee County True Vote Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

97%

 

 

 

 

True Vote

 

 

 

Voted 08

 

Voted

Recorded

Alive

 

Turnout

Voted

Voted 08

Mix

Kloppenburg

Prosser

 

Obama

 

319,819

67.3%

310,224

 

50%

155,112

Obama

67.7%

90%

10%

 

McCain

 

149,445

31.4%

144,962

 

49%

70,967

McCain

31.0%

5%

95%

 

Other

 

5,928

1.2%

5,750

 

50%

2,875

Other

1.3%

60%

40%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

475,192

 

460,936

 

49.7%

228,954

Total

100.0%

63.3%

36.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Calc

228,954

145,033

83,921

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

61,111

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diff

31,411

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

56.4%

43.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Votes

129,042

99,342

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

Margin

29,700

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kloppenburg share

 

 

 

 

 

Kloppenburg share

 

 

Obama

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout

 

% Obama

Recorded

 

True

 

%McCain

 

% Obama

Recorded

 

True

 

65%

75%

80%

85%

90%

 

 

65%

75%

80%

85%

90%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

54%

49.7%

57.0%

60.5%

64.3%

68.0%

 

7%

47.0%

53.8%

57.1%

60.6%

64.0%

52%

48.0%

55.1%

58.5%

62.1%

65.6%

 

6%

46.7%

53.5%

56.8%

60.3%

63.7%

50%

46.4%

53.2%

56.4%

60.0%

63.3%

 

5%

46.4%

53.2%

56.4%

60.0%

63.3%

48%

44.8%

51.3%

54.5%

57.8%

61.0%

 

4%

46.1%

52.9%

56.2%

59.6%

63.0%

46%

43.2%

49.4%

52.4%

55.6%

58.7%

 

3%

45.8%

52.6%

55.9%

59.3%

62.7%

44%

41.5%

47.5%

50.4%

53.5%

56.4%

 

2%

45.5%

52.3%

55.6%

59.0%

62.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kloppenburg Margin

 

 

 

 

 

Kloppenburg Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

54%

(1,554)

31,950

48,283

65,454

82,206

 

7%

(13,618)

17,405

32,528

48,427

63,938

52%

(9,000)

23,264

38,992

55,527

71,659

 

6%

(15,032)

15,991

31,114

47,013

62,525

50%

(16,445)

14,577

29,700

45,600

61,111

 

5%

(16,445)

14,577

29,700

45,600

61,111

48%

(23,890)

5,891

20,409

35,673

50,563

 

4%

(17,859)

13,164

28,287

44,186

59,697

46%

(31,336)

(2,795)

11,118

25,745

40,016

 

3%

(19,272)

11,750

26,873

42,773

58,284

44%

(38,781)

(11,482)

1,827

15,818

29,468

 

2%

(20,686)

10,337

25,460

41,359

56,870

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Waukesha  County True Vote Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

97%

 

 

 

 

True Vote

 

 

 

Voted 08

Registered

Voted

Recorded

Alive

 

Turnout

Voted

Voted 08

Mix

Kloppenburg

Prosser

 

Obama

 

87,756

37.7%

85,123

 

55.0%

46,818

Obama

37.4%

90%

10%

 

McCain

 

145,141

62.3%

140,787

 

55.6%

78,284

McCain

62.6%

3%

97%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

261,405

232,897

 

225,910

 

55.4%

125,102

Total

100.0%

35.6%

64.4%

 

 

 

89.1%

 

 

 

 

 

Votes

125,102

44,484

80,618

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

36,133

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diff

23,393

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

100.0%

26.2%

73.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Votes

125,102

32,788

92,314

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

Margin

59,526

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kloppenburg share

 

 

 

 

 

Kloppenburg share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama

Recorded

 

% Obama

 

True

 

 

Recorded

 

% Obama

 

True

Turnout

65%

75%

80%

85%

90%

 

%McCain

65%

75%

80%

85%

90%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

59%

27.9%

31.9%

33.9%

35.9%

37.9%

 

7%

28.7%

32.4%

34.3%

36.2%

38.1%

57%

27.0%

30.9%

32.9%

34.8%

36.7%

 

6%

28.1%

31.8%

33.7%

35.6%

37.4%

55%

26.2%

29.9%

31.8%

33.7%

35.6%

 

5%

27.5%

31.2%

33.1%

34.9%

36.8%

53%

25.4%

29.0%

30.8%

32.6%

34.4%

 

4%

26.8%

30.6%

32.4%

34.3%

36.2%

51%

24.5%

28.0%

29.7%

31.5%

33.2%

 

3%

26.2%

29.9%

31.8%

33.7%

35.6%

45%

22.0%

25.0%

26.6%

28.1%

29.6%

 

2%

25.6%

29.3%

31.2%

33.1%

34.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prosser Margin

 

 

 

 

 

Prosser Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

59%

55,320

45,275

40,253

35,231

30,209

 

7%

53,279

43,916

39,234

34,552

29,870

57%

57,431

47,727

42,875

38,023

33,171

 

6%

54,845

45,481

40,800

36,118

31,436

55%

59,542

50,179

45,497

40,815

36,133

 

5%

56,411

47,047

42,365

37,684

33,002

53%

61,653

52,630

48,119

43,607

39,096

 

4%

57,976

48,613

43,931

39,249

34,568

51%

63,764

55,082

50,740

46,399

42,058

 

3%

59,542

50,179

45,497

40,815

36,133

45%

70,097

62,436

58,606

54,775

50,945

 

2%

61,108

51,744

47,062

42,381

37,699