The 2012 Presidential True Vote Model: How Obama Could Lose

Richard Charnin

Oct. 4, 2011

The 2012 True Vote Model (TVM) indicates that Obama needs a 55% True Vote share to win a majority of the recorded vote. The pre-election 2012 Presidential TVM determines popular vote shares over a range of 2008 voter turnout rates and shares of returning and new voters. The TVM is not designed to forecast the election. That is the purpose of the upcoming 2012 Election Model (EM), which uses Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the electoral vote and win probability based on pre-election polls.

In 2008, Obama had a 52.9% recorded vote share. The National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. It indicated that returning Bush 2004 voters comprised 46% of the 2008 electorate compared to just 37% for returning Kerry voters. This astounding anomaly is never discussed by academics, political scientists and media pundits. In the TVM, the impossible 46/37 return voter mix was replaced with a feasible set based on Kerry's true 53.7% share, 5% voter mortality and an estimated 97% "habitual voter" turnout rate. Obama had a 58% True Vote share using the identical NEP vote shares

Obama had 58% of 81,388 state exit poll respondents (the polls were weighted by voting population). The NEP is a subset (17,836 respondents) of the state exit polls; Obama had a remarkable 61%. Of the 17,836 respondents, 4,178 were asked how they voted in 2004: 43.4% said they voted for Kerry, 36.6% for Bush, 4.5% for Other and 13.4% did not vote. The percentages implied that Kerry won by 50.2-44.6%. Using the implied 2004 vote shares, Obama's share increases from the recorded 52.9% to 58.0% - exactly matching the True Vote Model and the unadjusted/weighted state exit poll aggregate. View the ‘NEP2008’ sheet. An impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning/new voter mix (12 million more Bush than Kerry voters) was required in the 2008 NEP to force a match to the recorded share.

For 2012, consider the following base case scenario:

- Obama’s 58% True Vote share is the basis for calculating returning voters.

- 90% of living 2008 Obama voters and 97% of McCain voters turn out in 2012.

- Obama wins 85% of his 2008 voters and 10% of returning McCain voters.

- Obama splits returning third-party (Other) and New (DNV) voters with the Republican candidate.

Based on these assumptions, Obama wins the election by 6.4 million votes with a 52.4% True Vote share.

Table 1: Nine vote share scenarios

In each scenario, 90% of living Obama voters and 97% of living McCain voters turn out.

In the worst case scenario, Obama wins 80% of returning Obama voters and 5% of returning McCain voters. Obama loses by 5 million votes with a 48.1% share.

In the most likely base case scenario, Obama has 85% of Obama and 10% of McCain voters. Obama wins by 6.4 million with a 52.4% share.

In the best case scenario, Obama wins 90% of returning Obama voters and 15% of returning McCain voters. Obama wins by 17.7 million with a 56.6% share.

Table 2: Nine voter turnout scenarios

In each scenario, Obama wins 85% of returning Obama and 10% of McCain voters.

In the worst case scenario, 85% of Obama and 100% of McCain voters turn out. Obama wins by 2.6 million with a 51.0% share.

In the most likely base case scenario, 90% of Obama and 97% of McCain voters turn out. Obama wins by 6.4 million with a 52.4% share.

In the best case scenario 95% of Obama and 92% of McCain voters turn out, Obama wins by 10.9 million with a 54.0% share.

Using the recorded 52.9% vote share as a basis, Obama loses by 2.6 million votes, a 9 million vote switch in margin from the True Vote scenario. Bottom line: Obama needs at least a 55% True Vote share to win in 2012 if, as in 2008, he loses 5% due to fraud.

Note that these scenarios are based on the 2008 True Vote. Unfortunately, pollsters, academics and media pundits do not consider or mention the True vote or Election Fraud for that matter. It’s not in their vocabulary. They can’t mention one without the other (the Recorded vote is equal to the True Vote plus an Election Fraud factor). To these forecasters, the recorded vote is sacrosanct. They base all of their pre-election and post-election analysis on the recorded vote. That is what they do.

		2008 Basis: Obama’s True 58% share
		He wins by 6.4 million votes.
Input Data Section		2008					95%	2012
		Voted for	True	Rec’d	Input	Voted	Alive	Turnout	Voted	Mix	Obama	Repub
Obama 2008 Vote Share	58%	Obama	58.0%	52.9%	58.0%	76,159	72,351	90%	65,116	48.2%	85%	15%
Obama Turnout	90%	McCain	40.5%	45.6%	40.5%	53,180	50,521	97%	49,005	36.3%	10%	90%
McCain Turnout	97%	Other	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1,970	1,871	97%	1,815	1.3%	50%	50%
Other Turnout	97%	DNV (new)							19,064	14.1%	50%	50%
Obama share of returning:
Obama voters	85%	Total	131,308	100%	100%	131,308	124,743	92.9%	135,000	100.0%	52.4%	47.6%
McCain voters	10%									Votes	70,688	64,312
Other voters	50%									Margin	6,377
New (DNV) voters	50%
Mortality (2008-2012)	5.0%				Sensitivity Analysis
			Table 1					Table 2
			Obama share of returning 2008 voters					Obama & McCain voter turnout in 2012
			Obama%	Obama share of Obama				McCain	Obama Turnout
			McCain	80%	85%	90%		Turnout	85%	90%	95%
					Obama Share					Obama Share
			15%	51.8%	54.2%	56.6%		92%	52.2%	53.1%	54.0%
			10%	49.9%	52.4%	54.8%		97%	51.4%	52.4%	53.3%
			5%	48.1%	50.6%	53.0%		100%	51.0%	51.9%	52.9%
					Margin					Margin
			15%	4,766	11,277	17,789		92%	5,865	8,398	10,930
			10%	-135	6,377	12,888		97%	3,845	6,377	8,909
			5%	-5,035	1,476	7,988		100%	2,632	5,164	7,697
		2008 Basis: Obama’s recorded 52.9% share
		He loses by 2.6 million votes.
		2008					95%		2012
		Voted for	True	Rec’d	Input	Voted	Alive	Turnout	Voted	Mix	Obama	Repub
		Obama	58.0%	52.9%	52.9%	69,462	65,989	90%	59,390	44.0%	85%	15%
		McCain	40.5%	45.6%	45.6%	59,876	56,883	97%	55,176	40.9%	10%	90%
		Other	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1,970	1,871	97%	1,815	1.3%	50%	50%
		DNV (new)							18,619	13.8%	50%	50%
			131,308	100%	100%	131,308	124,743	93.3%	135,000	100.0%	49.1%	51.0%
										Votes	66,216	68,784
										Margin	-2,568

Table 3				Table 4
Obama shares of returning 2008 voters				Obama & McCain voter turnout
(assume base case voter turnout)				(assume base case vote shares)
Share of	Share of Obama			McCain	Obama Turnout
McCain	83%	85%	87%	Turnout	88%	90%	92%
	Obama Share				Obama Share
12%	49.00%	49.9%	50.7%	95%	49.1%	49.4%	49.7%
10%	48.2%	49.1%	49.9%	97%	48.7%	49.1%	49.4%
8%	47.4%	48.3%	49.1%	99%	48.4%	48.7%	49.1%
	Obama Margin				Obama Margin
12%	-2,737	-361	2,015	95%	-2,582	-1,658	-734
10%	-4,944	-2,568	-192	97%	-3,492	-2,568	-1,644
8%	-7,151	-4,775	-2,399	99%	-4,402	-3,478	-2,554