Voting Early on Paper Ballots vs. Election Day Voting
Machines
Feb. 6, 2012
This analysis compares exit poll discrepancies in states which voted early by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots in 2008. Approximately 30% of the 131 million total votes were cast early. The exit poll red-shift to the GOP is negatively (-0.50) correlated to early mail or in-person voting (paper ballot). In other words, the unadjusted exit polls are a closer match to the recorded vote in early-voting states where, presumably, election fraud is minimal.
In general, exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote (red-shift) are lower in states with a high percentage of early paper ballot voting. Conversely, states that utilize unverifiable DREs on Election Day have much higher exit poll discrepancies - as one would intuitively expect.
The 15 states with the highest early voting turnout had an average 2.3% red-shift. The 15 with the lowest early turnout had an average 6.8% red-shift.
For example, the states with the highest percentage of early/hand-delivered paper ballots had tiny red-shifts (Pct,R/S): OR (100%,1.75%), WA (89%,0.54%) and CO (79%, -1.8%).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=26
This scatter-chart shows that as the percentage of early (Vote-by-mail or hand-delivered) paper-ballots increase, the exit poll red-shift decreases. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=28
Note that in the above chart, the three points at the extreme right represent CO, WA, OR.
Approximately 30% of votes cast were mailed or hand-delivered and 7% of paper ballots were recorded late (absentee, provisional, etc.). Therefore 63% were cast on Election Day which were a combination of DREs, Optical scanners and punch card machines. Since approximately 30% of total votes cast in 2008 were on DREs, it follows that nearly 50% of votes cast on Election Day were on unverifiable DREs. No wonder the discrepancies were concentrated on Election Day voting.
Now what about the votes recorded AFTER Election Day - the Late (paper ballot) votes? How does the Democratic late vote share compare to the overall recorded vote? Not surprisingly, since the late votes were cast on paper ballots, the Democrats did much better.
Proof: there were 121 million votes cast on or before Election Day. Obama had 52.4%. He had 59.2% of the 10 million late recorded votes. So here is the takeaway: Don't vote ON Election Day (voting machines). Vote on PAPER BALLOTS- EARLY (mail or hand-delivered), or LATE (absentee or provisional).
http://richardcharnin.com/2008LateVotes.htm
And for those who question voting by mail or hand-delivered
ballots, check out