Election Model
Created by
TruthIsAll
Updated: 1-Nov
Simulation Expected Weighted 5000 Trials
Projection Elec. Vote Pop. Vote% Win Prob%
Kerry 337 51.80 99.80
Bush 201 48.20 0.20
National National State Monte Carlo Simulation 
9 Poll 18 Poll 51  Poll State EV Model
Current% Average Average Wtd. Average Undecided% Allocation BaseCase
Kerry 47.11 47.17 47.88  Kerry 60% 67% 75% 80% 87%
Bush 46.56 46.89 46.89 Trial  Wins 4901 4972 4990 4997 4999
Projected% Projected%
Kerry 51.86 51.63 51.80 Kerry 51.02 51.38 51.80 52.07 52.43
Bush 48.14 48.38 48.20 Bush 48.98 48.62 48.20 47.93 47.57
Win Prob% 1.03 MoE 0.73 MoE EV Wins/5000  Win Prob%
Kerry 99.98 100.00 99.80 Kerry 98.02 99.44 99.80 99.94 99.98
Bush 0.02 0.00 0.20 Bush 1.98 0.56 0.20 0.06 0.02
2-Party Vote 1992-2000 Vote% Kerry  Electoral Vote
Democrat 138.8 mil 52.61 50.52 Average  320 328 337 343 352
Republican 125.0 mil 47.39 49.48 Median   322 329 338 345 353
Maximum 379 388 405 405 412
Minimum 211 237 229 243 254
Battleground Kerry current 2-party poll %
AZ 47.37 NH 50.00 95% Conf. Interval
AR 50.00 NC 48.14 Upper Limit 361 368 376 382 389
CO 49.47 OH 51.55 Lower Limit 278 288 299 305 315
FL 51.55 PA 52.63
IA 53.19 TN 48.73 National 18-Polls
MI 53.61 VA 47.96 Vote% 50.73 51.15 51.63 51.92 52.34
MN 54.17 WA 54.17 Prob% 97.55 99.90 100.00 100.00 100.00
MO 47.31 WV 48.52
NV 50.00 WI 53.68 States Won 26 27 27 28 30
Gore won Kerry  leads
States  21 26
Elec. Vote 266 322
2-party% 50.27 50.52
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
POLLING ANALYSIS
Kerry % Gore % Recent State Polls
EV vs. Bush vs. Bush Diff Gore EV Kerry % Bush % Diff Kerry EV
AL 9 40.63 42.86 (2.23) 39.0 57.0 (18.0)
AK 3 34.48 32.18 2.30 30.0 57.0 (27.0)
AZ 10 47.37 46.88 0.49 45.0 50.0 (5.0)
AR 6 50.00 47.42 2.58 48.0 48.0 0.0 6
CA 55 53.85 55.79 (1.94) 55 49.0 42.0 7.0 55
CO 9 49.47 45.16 4.31 47.0 48.0 (1.0)
CT 7 55.32 59.57 (4.26) 7 52.0 42.0 10.0 7
DE 3 54.22 56.70 (2.48) 3 45.0 38.0 7.0 3
DC 3 87.64 90.43 (2.79) 3 78.0 11.0 67.0 3
FL 27 51.55 49.95 1.60 50.0 47.0 3.0 27
GA 15 44.68 43.88 0.80 42.0 52.0 (10.0)
HI 4 50.00 60.22 (10.22) 4 45.0 45.0 0.0 4
ID 4 33.71 29.47 4.23 30.0 59.0 (29.0)
IL 21 56.25 56.12 0.13 21 54.0 42.0 12.0 21
IN 11 40.21 41.84 (1.63) 39.0 58.0 (19.0)
IA 7 53.19 50.52 2.68 7 50.0 44.0 6.0 7
KS 6 38.14 38.95 (0.80) 37.0 60.0 (23.0)
KY 8 41.05 41.84 (0.78) 39.0 56.0 (17.0)
LA 9 45.45 45.92 (0.46) 40.0 48.0 (8.0)
ME 4 56.18 52.69 3.49 4 50.0 39.0 11.0 4
MD 10 55.67 58.33 (2.66) 10 54.0 43.0 11.0 10
MA 12 70.33 64.52 5.81 12 64.0 27.0 37.0 12
MI 17 53.61 52.58 1.03 17 52.0 45.0 7.0 17
MN 10 54.17 51.06 3.10 10 52.0 44.0 8.0 10
MS 6 45.16 41.41 3.75 42.0 51.0 (9.0)
MO 11 47.31 48.45 (1.14) 44.0 49.0 (5.0)
MT 3 38.71 36.26 2.45 36.0 57.0 (21.0)
NE 5 34.41 34.74 (0.33) 32.0 61.0 (29.0)
NV 5 50.00 47.92 2.08 49.0 49.0 0.0 5
NH 4 50.00 49.47 0.53 47.0 47.0 0.0 4
NJ 15 54.35 58.33 (3.99) 15 50.0 42.0 8.0 15
NM 5 50.00 50.05 (0.05) 5 49.0 49.0 0.0 5
NY 31 59.38 63.16 (3.78) 31 57.0 39.0 18.0 31
NC 15 48.14 43.43 4.71 46.7 50.3 (3.6)
ND 3 38.89 35.11 3.78 35.0 55.0 (20.0)
OH 20 51.55 47.92 3.63 50.0 47.0 3.0 20
OK 7 31.46 38.78 (7.31) 28.0 61.0 (33.0)
OR 7 53.19 50.05 3.14 7 50.0 44.0 6.0 7
PA 21 52.63 52.58 0.05 21 50.0 45.0 5.0 21
RI 4 60.87 65.59 (4.72) 4 56.0 36.0 20.0 4
SC 8 43.30 41.84 1.46 42.0 55.0 (13.0)
SD 3 44.68 38.78 5.91 42.0 52.0 (10.0)
TN 11 48.73 47.96 0.77 47.8 50.3 (2.5)
TX 34 38.54 39.18 (0.63) 37.0 59.0 (22.0)
UT 5 25.81 27.96 (2.15) 24.0 69.0 (45.0)
VT 3 56.99 55.43 1.55 3 53.0 40.0 13.0 3
VA 13 47.96 45.83 2.13 47.0 51.0 (4.0)
WA 11 54.17 52.63 1.54 11 52.0 44.0 8.0 11
WV 5 48.52 46.94 1.58 45.8 48.6 (2.8)
WI 10 53.68 50.05 3.63 10 51.0 44.0 7.0 10
WY 3 30.85 29.17 1.68 29.0 65.0 (36.0)
Total 538 50.52 50.27 0.26 260 47.88 46.89 0.99 322
Gore won  21  states with 266 electoral votes
Kerry leads  26  states with 322 electoral votes 
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
BUSH  APPROVAL
Avg Date Nwk Fox Gallup Pew Harris CBS ABC Time NBC AP Zogby Qpac
54.50 Jan 50 58 60 56 na 50 58 54 54 56 49 53
49.67 Feb 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 na 47 na 48
48.75 Mar 48 48 49 46 na 51 50 na 50 48 na 49
48.55 Apr 49 50 52 48 48 46 51 49 na 48 47 46
45.18 May 42 48 47 44 na 41 47 46 47 48 42 45
47.00 June na 48 49 48 50 42 47 na 45 48 46 na
47.82 July 48 47 47 46 na 45 50 50 48 50 49 46
48.00 Aug 45 51 51 46 48 46 50 51 47 49 44 na
49.09 Sept 48 50 52 46 45 48 50 53 47 54 47 na
48.50 Oct 46 49 46 44 na 49 53 53 49 47 49 na
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
MONTHLY AVERAGE TREND 
Independent National Poll Group
2-party Curr. Proj. Proj.
Independent Poll Group: Kerry Bush  Other Diff Kerry Prob Kerry Prob.
ARG Jan  44.00 49.00 7.00 -5.00 47.31 0.00 49.25 7.74
Harris Feb 47.50 45.25 7.25 2.25 51.21 98.93 52.94 100.00
Zogby  Mar 47.60 45.20 7.20 2.40 51.29 99.29 53.00 100.00
Economist Apr 46.40 45.40 8.20 1.00 50.54 84.93 52.55 100.00
Marist May 47.20 44.00 8.80 3.20 51.75 99.96 53.80 100.00
Dem Corp June 46.00 45.60 8.40 0.40 50.22 66.07 52.30 100.00
Pew July 47.33 44.33 8.33 3.00 51.64 99.90 53.58 100.00
IBD/TIPP Aug 47.83 44.50 7.67 3.33 51.81 99.97 53.58 100.00
ICR Sept 45.00 47.44 7.56 -2.44 48.68 0.61 50.67 89.70
Oct 47.11 46.56 6.33 0.56 50.30 71.32 51.86 99.98
Projection National 2-party National 2-party State 2-party
= Kerry Avg Avg Ind. Group K/K+B 18 Polls K/K+B 51 polls K/K+B
+ 60% other Kerry 47.11% 50.30% 47.17% 50.15% 47.88% 50.52%
Bush 46.56% 49.70% 46.89% 49.85% 46.89% 49.48%
Use RV polls  Diff 0.56% 0.59% 0.28% 0.30% 0.99% 1.04%
(LV if RV na)
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST NATIONAL POLLS
Kerry projections
Nat. Poll Poll Curr.  Curr.  Curr Undecided alloc. % 
Poll Date MoE Kerry Bush K/K+B 60.0 67.0 75.0 80.0 87.0
AP 1020 3.50 49 46 51.6 52.0 52.4 52.8 53.0 53.4
Time 1021 3.00 46 51 47.4 47.8 48.0 48.3 48.4 48.6
LAT 1024 4.00 48 47 50.5 51.0 51.4 51.8 52.0 52.4
Harris 1025 2.50 48 47 50.5 51.0 51.4 51.8 52.0 52.4
ICR 1026 3.10 44 46 48.9 50.0 50.7 51.5 52.0 52.7
Econ 1027 2.00 49 45 52.1 52.6 53.0 53.5 53.8 54.2
Nwk 1029 4.00 45 48 48.4 49.2 49.7 50.3 50.6 51.1
Pew 1030 3.50 46 45 50.5 51.4 52.0 52.8 53.2 53.8
Zogby 1030 3.10 47 48 49.5 50.0 50.4 50.8 51.0 51.4
ARG 1030 3.50 49 48 50.5 50.8 51.0 51.3 51.4 51.6
ABC 1030 3.00 48 47 50.5 51.0 51.4 51.8 52.0 52.4
Marist 1031 2.50 49 48 50.5 50.8 51.0 51.3 51.4 51.6
TIPP 1031 3.50 44 45 49.4 50.6 51.4 52.3 52.8 53.6
CBS 1031 3.00 46 47 49.5 50.2 50.7 51.3 51.6 52.1
DemC 1031 3.10 48 47 51.6 52.2 52.7 53.3 53.6 54.1
FOX 1031 3.40 48 45 50.5 51.0 51.4 51.8 52.0 52.4
Gallup 1031 4.00 48 46 51.1 51.6 52.0 52.5 52.8 53.2
NBC 1031 3.00 47 48 49.5 50.0 50.4 50.8 51.0 51.4
Average 0.73 47.17 46.89 50.15 50.73 51.15 51.63 51.92 52.34
Kerry Win Probabilities 65.17 97.55 99.90 100.00 100.00 100.00
95% Confidence Limits: Max 47.90 47.62 50.88 51.46 51.88 52.36 52.65 53.07
Std = MoE / 1.96  Min 46.44 46.16 49.41 50.00 50.42 50.89 51.19 51.61
Max=Mean+1.96*Std x 47.62 47.62 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
Min=Mean-1.96*Std Prob>x 11.23 2.50 65.17 97.55 99.90 100.00 100.00 100.00
99% Confidence Limits:
Max=Mean+2.58*Std Max 48.13 47.85 51.11 51.69 52.11 52.59 52.88 53.30
Min=Mean-2.58* Std Min 46.21 45.93 49.18 49.77 50.19 50.66 50.96 51.38
x 47.85 47.85 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
Prob>x 3.33 0.49 65.17 97.55 99.90 100.00 100.00 100.00
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NATIONAL WIN PROBABILITY MATRIX
(sample size vs. projected vote pct)
Kerry Undecided Allocation /  Vote (18 Poll Model) 9-Poll Model
Sample Sample Std 2-party 60% 67% 75% 80% 87% 60%
Size MoE Dev 50.15 50.73 51.15 51.63 51.92 52.34 51.86
600 4.00% 2.04% 52.84 64.03 71.33 78.70 82.68 87.40 81.91
1000 3.10% 1.58% 53.66 67.86 76.64 84.80 88.80 93.04 88.04
1250 2.77% 1.41% 54.09 69.80 79.18 87.47 91.30 95.09 90.59
1500 2.53% 1.29% 54.48 71.50 81.34 89.59 93.17 96.50 92.53
2000 2.19% 1.12% 55.17 74.41 84.80 92.69 95.72 98.18 95.20
3000 1.79% 0.91% 56.32 78.91 89.60 96.25 98.24 99.48 97.93
4000 1.55% 0.79% 57.29 82.32 92.70 98.01 99.25 99.85 99.07
5000 1.39% 0.71% 58.14 85.02 94.80 98.92 99.67 99.95 99.58
6000 1.27% 0.65% 58.91 87.20 96.25 99.41 99.85 99.99 99.80
7000 1.17% 0.60% 59.61 89.01 97.28 99.67 99.94 100.00 99.91
8000 1.10% 0.56% 60.25 90.52 98.01 99.82 99.97 100.00 99.96
9000 1.03% 0.53% 60.86 91.79 98.54 99.90 99.99 100.00 99.98
10000 0.98% 0.50% 61.43 92.88 98.92 99.94 99.99 100.00 99.99
11000 0.93% 0.48% 61.97 93.80 99.20 99.97 100.00 100.00 100.00
12000 0.89% 0.46% 62.49 94.59 99.41 99.98 100.00 100.00 100.00
13000 0.86% 0.44% 62.98 95.28 99.56 99.99 100.00 100.00 100.00
14000 0.83% 0.42% 63.45 95.87 99.67 99.99 100.00 100.00 100.00
15000 0.80% 0.41% 63.91 96.38 99.76 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
16000 0.77% 0.40% 64.34 96.82 99.82 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
17000 0.75% 0.38% 64.76 97.21 99.86 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
18000 0.73% 0.37% 65.17 97.55 99.90 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION ANALYSIS
Dem Kerry Kerry Trials 1-10 of 5000
Hist. % Proj. % Prob. % 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
52.61 51.80 99.80 329 342 338 347 336 349 347 323 342 317
AL 44.78 42.00 0.00
AK 37.65 39.75 0.00
AZ 48.82 48.75 27.01 10 10 10 10
AR 55.21 51.00 68.79 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
CA 57.36 55.75 99.76 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
CO 48.81 50.75 64.34 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
CT 57.72 56.50 99.93 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
DE 56.82 57.75 99.99 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
DC 90.35 86.25 100.00 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
FL 50.69 52.25 86.49 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
GA 47.58 46.50 4.32
HI 59.01 52.50 88.97 4 4 4 4 4 4
ID 35.65 38.25 0.00
IL 57.93 57.00 99.97 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
IN 44.83 41.25 0.00
IA 51.82 54.50 98.63 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
KS 42.43 39.25 0.00
KY 46.67 42.75 0.02
LA 49.19 49.00 31.21 9 9 9 9 9
ME 57.09 58.25 100.00 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
MD 57.81 56.25 99.89 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MA 65.27 70.75 100.00 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
MI 54.74 54.25 98.14 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
MN 55.74 55.00 99.29 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MS 44.32 47.25 8.89 6
MO 52.46 49.25 35.66 11 11 11 11
MT 44.91 41.25 0.00
NE 37.54 37.25 0.00
NV 49.89 50.50 59.68 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NH 51.72 51.50 76.88 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
NJ 56.45 56.00 99.84 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
NM 53.01 50.50 59.68 5 5 5 5 5
NY 62.60 60.00 100.00 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
NC 46.60 48.95 30.35 15 15
ND 40.84 42.50 0.01
OH 50.77 52.25 86.49 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
OK 42.77 36.25 0.00
OR 53.57 54.50 98.63 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
PA 54.16 53.75 96.69 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
RI 65.55 62.00 100.00 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SC 44.41 44.25 0.24
SD 44.48 46.50 4.32
TN 50.51 49.23 35.21 11 11
TX 44.27 40.00 0.00
UT 33.65 29.25 0.00
VT 59.38 58.25 100.00 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VA 47.29 48.50 23.12
WA 55.87 55.00 99.29 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
WV 54.00 50.00 50.00 5 5 5 5
WI 52.69 54.75 99.00 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
WY 38.33 33.50 0.00
Avg 52.61 51.80 99.80 329 342 338 347 336 349 347 323 342 317
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NATIONAL POLL TREND
Current Current Projection
Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
TIPP
Feb 44 41 3 55.3 44.8 10.5
Mar 45 43 2 54.0 46.0 8.0
Apr 40 44 -4 52.0 48.0 4.0
May 43 42 1 54.3 45.8 8.5
June 43 44 -1 52.8 47.3 5.5
July 46 43 3 54.3 45.8 8.5
Aug 44 44 0 53.0 47.0 6.0
Sept 46 45 1 52.8 47.3 5.5
Oct 44 45 -1 52.3 47.8 4.5
 AVG  43.89 43.44 0.44 53.39 46.61 6.78
ABC
Feb 52 43 9 55.8 44.3 11.5
Mar 53 44 9 55.3 44.8 10.5
Apr 48 49 -1 50.3 49.8 0.5
May 49 47 2 52.0 48.0 4.0
June 53 45 8 54.5 45.5 9.0
July 47 49 -2 50.0 50.0 0.0
Aug 49 48 1 51.3 48.8 2.5
Sept 45 51 -6 48.0 52.0 -4.0
Oct 48 47 1 51.8 48.3 3.5
AVG 49.33 47.00 2.33 52.08 47.92 4.17
AP
Jan  37 54 -17 43.8 56.3 -12.5
Mar 45 46 -1 51.8 48.3 3.5
Apr 44 45 -1 52.3 47.8 4.5
May 43 46 -3 51.3 48.8 2.5
July 45 49 -4 49.5 50.5 -1.0
Aug 48 45 3 53.3 46.8 6.5
Sept 42 51 -9 47.3 52.8 -5.5
Oct 49 46 3 52.8 47.3 5.5
AVG 44.88 46.75 -1.88 51.16 48.84 2.31
Nwk
Jan  41 52 -11 46.3 53.8 -7.5
Feb 50 45 5 53.8 46.3 7.5
Mar 48 45 3 53.3 46.8 6.5
Apr 50 43 7 55.3 44.8 10.5
May 46 45 1 52.8 47.3 5.5
July 51 45 6 54.0 46.0 8.0
Aug 52 44 8 55.0 45.0 10.0
Sept 45 50 -5 48.8 51.3 -2.5
Oct 45 48 -3 50.3 49.8 0.5
AVG 48.11 45.56 2.56 52.86 47.14 5.72
ARG
Jan  47 46 1 52.3 47.8 4.5
Feb 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0
Mar 50 43 7 55.3 44.8 10.5
Apr 50 44 6 54.5 45.5 9.0
May 47 44 3 53.8 46.3 7.5
June 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0
July 49 45 4 53.5 46.5 7.0
Aug 49 46 3 52.8 47.3 5.5
Sep 46 47 -1 51.3 48.8 2.5
Oct 49 48 1 51.3 48.8 2.5
AVG 48.44 45.44 3.00 53.03 46.97 6.06
NBC
Jan  35 54 -19 43.3 56.8 -13.5
Mar 43 46 -3 51.3 48.8 2.5
May 42 46 -4 51.0 49.0 2.0
June 44 45 -1 52.3 47.8 4.5
July 45 47 -2 51.0 49.0 2.0
Aug 45 47 -2 51.0 49.0 2.0
Sep 46 49 -3 49.8 50.3 -0.5
Oct 47 48 -1 50.8 49.3 1.5
AVG 44.38 46.75 -2.38 51.03 48.97 2.06
FOX
Jan  32 54 -22 42.5 57.5 -15.0
Feb 43 47 -4 50.5 49.5 1.0
Mar 44 44 0 53.0 47.0 6.0
Apr 42 43 -1 53.3 46.8 6.5
May 42 42 0 54.0 46.0 8.0
June 42 48 -6 49.5 50.5 -1.0
July 42 43 -1 53.3 46.8 6.5
Aug 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5
Sep 43 45 -2 52.0 48.0 4.0
Oct 48 45 3 53.3 46.8 6.5
AVG 43.44 44.56 -1.11 52.44 47.56 4.89
CBS
Jan  48 43 5 54.8 45.3 9.5
Feb 47 46 1 52.3 47.8 4.5
Mar 48 43 5 54.8 45.3 9.5
Apr 48 43 5 54.8 45.3 9.5
May 49 41 8 56.5 43.5 13.0
June 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5
July 49 44 5 54.3 45.8 8.5
Aug 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5
Sep 41 49 -8 48.5 51.5 -3.0
Oct 46 47 -1 51.3 48.8 2.5
AVG 46.44 44.56 1.89 53.19 46.81 6.39
Gallup
Jan  43 55 -12 44.5 55.5 -11.0
Feb 48 49 -1 50.3 49.8 0.5
Mar 52 44 8 55.0 45.0 10.0
Apr 46 51 -5 48.3 51.8 -3.5
May 49 47 2 52.0 48.0 4.0
June 48 49 -1 50.3 49.8 0.5
July 51 44 7 54.8 45.3 9.5
Aug 48 47 1 51.8 48.3 3.5
Sep 44 52 -8 47.0 53.0 -6.0
Oct 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0
AVG 48.22 47.67 0.56 51.31 48.69 2.61
Pew
Jan  41 52 -11 46.3 53.8 -7.5
Feb 47 47 0 51.5 48.5 3.0
Mar 48 44 4 54.0 46.0 8.0
Apr 47 46 1 52.3 47.8 4.5
May 50 45 5 53.8 46.3 7.5
June 46 48 -2 50.5 49.5 1.0
July 46 44 2 53.5 46.5 7.0
Aug 47 45 2 53.0 47.0 6.0
Sep 40 48 -8 49.0 51.0 -2.0
Oct 46 45 1 52.8 47.3 5.5
AVG 46.33 45.78 0.56 52.25 47.75 4.50
LAT
Apr 49 46 3 52.8 47.3 5.5
June 51 44 7 54.8 45.3 9.5
July 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0
Aug 46 49 -3 49.8 50.3 -0.5
Sep 43 47 -4 50.5 49.5 1.0
Oct 48 47 1 51.8 48.3 3.5
AVG 47.71 46.43 1.29 52.11 47.89 4.21
ZOGBY
Mar 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0
Apr 47 44 3 53.8 46.3 7.5
May 47 42 5 55.3 44.8 10.5
June 44 42 2 54.5 45.5 9.0
July 48 43 5 54.8 45.3 9.5
Aug 50 43 7 55.3 44.8 10.5
Sep 44 47 -3 50.8 49.3 1.5
Oct 47 48 -1 50.8 49.3 1.5
AVG 46.88 44.38 2.50 53.44 46.56 6.88
TIME
Jan 43 54 -11 45.3 54.8 -9.5
Feb 48 50 -2 49.5 50.5 -1.0
May 51 46 5 53.3 46.8 6.5
July 50 45 5 53.8 46.3 7.5
Aug 46 46 0 52.0 48.0 4.0
Sep 44 48 -4 50.0 50.0 0.0
Oct 46 51 -5 48.3 51.8 -3.5
AVG 48.00 47.43 0.57 51.43 48.57 2.86
DemC
Jan
Feb 51 47 4 52.5 47.5 5.0
Mar 47 50 -3 49.3 50.8 -1.5
Apr 48 49 -1 50.3 49.8 0.5
May 49 47 2 52.0 48.0 4.0
June 49 48 1 51.3 48.8 2.5
July 50 47 3 52.3 47.8 4.5
Aug 52 45 7 54.3 45.8 8.5
Sep 49 49 0 50.5 49.5 1.0
Oct 48 47 1 51.8 48.3 3.5
AVG 49.22 47.67 1.56 51.56 48.44 3.11
Marist
Jan 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Feb 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mar 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Apr 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
May 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
June
July 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5
Aug 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5
Sep 45 47 -2 51.0 49.0 2.0
Oct 49 48 1 51.3 48.8 2.5
AVG 46.00 45.75 0.25 52.19 47.81 4.38
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Notes:
1) State and Nat. projections assume 
60% undecided/other to Kerry.                            
2) State votes calc. by weighting polls
3) All state polls: 4% MoE
Simulation Methodology:
*
random numbers applied to
normal distribution for
5000 election trials. 
                                
Project Kerry pct of 
state popular vote.  
Nat % based on total
state votes.                                
                                
Win Probability is pct of
simulation trials Kerry wins
(at least 270 EV).
Normal Distribution calculates
Kerry state win probability,
based on mean poll value
and Std Dev 4.0% MoE/1.96.
Examples:
Kansas poll has Kerry at 39.25%
Probability he wins state 0.00%
Maine poll has Kerry at 58.25%
Probability he wins state 100.00%
                                
Generate RND no. X 
between 0 and 1.
If X is lower than
Kerry prob of win 
he wins state.                               
                                
Simulation: 5000 trials. 
Calc.  Avg  EV. 
                                
Most likely case: 
Kerry's proj:  poll value
plus 60% of  undec/other. 
Historically, undecideds
break 2/1 for challenger. 
Example:
Kerry leads 46-44 with 10%
Add 6% for 52- 48 win.
EFFECT OF POLLING SAMPLE SIZE,  MOE AND STD
ON THE ACCURACY OF THE SAMPLE MEAN
National polls: sample 1000
State polls: sample 600.
Margin of Error:
4.0% for 600 sample.
3.1% for 1000 sample.
Decreases as size (n) increases.
0.80% for 15 polls (15000 samples).
Win Probability Matrix displayed
for various poll sample sizes.
11-Poll and 16-Poll group averages
used for probability of a majority
for up to 15,000 samples (15 polls).
The more samples drawn, the
more accurate the sample mean.