The False Recall hypothesis is hereby finally put to eternal rest. False Recall was a final “Hail Mary” pass to explain the impossible 43/37 returning Bush/Gore voter split in the Final 2004 National Exit Poll. Based on the results of NES surveys of retrospective votes, the theory cites the consistent differential between the respondent's recall of their past and recorded vote.
This analysis will show that the retrospective votes were well within the Recorded and True Vote margin of error. The respondents told the truth. False recall should be dismissed from the get-go because the implied assumptions were false.
False assumption 1:
-The 43/37 returning voter split was a legitimate sampled result; approximately 8% more Gore voters than Bush voters misreported their past vote.
But the exit pollsters always force the Final to match the recorded vote by adjusting all demographic cross tab weights and/or vote shares.
False assumption 2:
-The recorded vote is identical to the True Vote (i.e. the elections were fraud-free).
But a fraudulent historical recorded vote was used as the baseline to prove that the 2004 exit polls did not indicate fraud.
How do we know the recorded votes were fraudulent? Simple. There are millions of uncounted votes in every
election; the vast majority Democratic.
And what about vote switching and ballot stuffing?
In the following analysis, the average True Vote margin was compared to the NES retrospective margins for all elections since 1968. It will show that the basic premise of False Recall is bogus; there is no evidence that NES respondents did not tell the truth about their past vote.
In fact, in every election since 1968, the retrospective
Democratic margin was higher than the recorded margin, confirming the True Vote
Model. In 8 of the 11 elections, the Democratic True Vote share fell within the
NES 4% margin of error.
The Average NES
winning margin was 11.4% (10.0% for the Dem and 12.4% for the
Republicans).
The average Democratic True Vote winning margin was 10.0%
The average Republican True Vote winning margin was
12.4%
The average absolute NES/ True vote deviation for the 11 elections was 0.40%.
Where’s the beef?
NES vs. True Vote Share (1968-2008)
The average absolute
deviation for the 11 elections was -0.40%.
The average
Democratic absolute deviation was -0.70%.
The average
Republican deviation was 0.46%.
NES vs. Recorded
Vote (1968-2008)
The average absolute
vote share deviation was -1.75%.
The average
Democratic absolute deviation was -3.30%.
The average
Republican deviation was -0.46%.
Note the Democratic True and Recorded Vote margin vs. NES margin (1968-2008).
Why False Recall was even suggested in the first place is a mystery.
This is from "Too Many Bush Voters? False Vote Recall and the 2004 Exit Polls" by Mark Lindeman:
"George W. Bush evidently won in 2004 not by turning out a higher proportion of his 2000 supporters, but (inter alia) by winning the votes of millions of people whom, if asked, would not have recalled that they did not vote for him the first time around. The fraud theorists were right to infer that the previous-election tabulation could not mean what it said, and their account of it – a desperate attempt to paper over the evidence of a stolen election – has evident narrative appeal. On the evidence presented here, however, retrospective Bush bandwagoning is what we should have expected all along".
No, what we should have expected all along was that the
media would go to any extreme to cover up the 2004 election theft. So which is it? Slow-drifting
fog? Mere forgetfulness? Retrospective
bandwagon? The comparative
analysis is based on an invalid premise: that the recorded vote is the True
Vote. This is obviously not the case; millions of (primarily Democratic) votes
are uncounted in every election. Not to mention that votes were miscounted (see
To summarize, here’s why the “false recall” hypothesis to explain the impossible Final 2004 National Exit Poll 43/37% returning Bush/Gore voter mix is just false.
1. False recall assumes that Alzheimer's was a Gore voter malady; Bush voters were immune to "mere forgetfulness".
2. Comparing the difference between the recorded vote and the retrospective past vote is a false dichotomy. The recorded vote, by definition, cannot represent the True Vote since it does not include millions of uncounted votes (a combination of spoiled, absentee, late and provisional ballots) that are heavily (70-80%) Democratic. Only by measuring the past vote against the True Vote (i.e. Total Votes Cast) is the past vote analysis even remotely valid.
3. The average absolute deviation between the NES and True Vote share was 0.40%. Where’s
the beef?
4. Comparing the True Vote average margin to the NES average survey margin for the 11 elections from 1968-2008 actually debunks "false recall" and confirms endemic election fraud. Apparently, Lindeman never considered that the NES study would confirm the True Vote Model because he never did the analysis. Yes, we can believe the NES survey, but only if the results are compared to the True Vote.
5. False recall is based on the premise that the returning Bush/Gore voter split (43/37%) in the Final National Exit Poll was a sampled result and that 3 of 40 (7.5%) Gore voters misreported their past vote. But it's standard operating procedure of the exit pollsters to force the Final to match the recorded vote by adjusting selected weights and/or vote shares in ALL demographic categories.
6. Even if we assume that the Final NEP (13660 respondents)
returning Bush/Gore voter split was a sampled result, how does that explain
that at
7. The majority (10,478) of respondents were only asked whom they voted for minutes before - not 4 years ago. And 51% said Kerry. Surely five minutes was too short a period for "mere forgetfulness", "slow-moving fog' or "bandwagon effect" (Bush had a 48% approval rating). The margin of error for a 10,000 sample is less than 1%.
8. In addition to the Final NEP there were 50 state exit polls. The unadjusted aggregate vote share was 52-47% in favor of Kerry. False recall was proposed to explain the Final NEP past vote anomaly, but ignores the state exit polls in which the respondents were asked who they just voted for. The Margin of Error for the total 70,000 state sample is significantly lower than 1% - even after adding an incremental "cluster effect" to the theoretical MoE.
9. The 2006 midterm and 2008 Final NEP effectively buried "false recall". Of course, It's SOP that returning Bush/Kerry returning voter weights would be adjusted to match the recorded vote. But look at HOW they were adjusted. In 2006 the Bush/Kerry mix was changed from 46.5/45.5% in the unadjusted exit poll to 49/43% in the Final. Bush had a 35% approval rating in 2006. The 2008 NEP 46/37% returning Bush/Kerry mix was mathematically impossible; it implied that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Bush "won" in 2004 by a fraudulent 3.0 million margin.
10. To say that a "slow-drifting fog" was unique to Gore voters is laughable and should be dismissed out-of-hand. Lindeman was left with a "latent Bush bandwagon effect" and "incumbency advantage" as possible explanations. But these are counter-intuitive; the 12:22am NEP indicated that 10% of returning Bush voters defected to Kerry and only 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush.
11. Regardless of how the exit poll responders stated they voted in 2000, Kerry enjoyed a net defection of these voters. It strains credulity that Gore voters would vote for Kerry and lie about their past vote. It also strains credulity that angry Gore voters would forget that the election was stolen from them when the Supreme Court nullified the Florida Supreme Court, halted the recount and handed the election to Bush.
12. It's irrelevant whether or not Gore voters misreported their past vote. Regardless of HOW they SAID they voted, the only thing that matters is a) how they actually voted in 2000 and b) how they actually voted in 2004. it's a simple fact that Gore had 51.0 million recorded votes and Bush 50.5 million. For simplicity, we can ignore the 5.4 million net uncounted votes (70-80% were for Gore). The recorded 2000 vote and the 1222am NEP indicated that Gore AND Kerry were winners.
13. The Final NEP weightings do not reflect that of Bush voters were MORTAL and ignores the obvious PHYSICAL constraint that voter turnout is always less than 100%. The “Clincher” sensitivity analysis shows that Kerry wins by 7 million - even in the unlikely scenario that returning Bush voter turnout was 98% and Gore turnout just 90%.
14. The Aug. 2005 "Game" was a classic Democratic Underground online debate between spreadsheet-wielding Internet bloggers and two prominent exit poll naysayers (Lindeman and Elizabeth Liddle). Prior to the "Game", Lindeman was challenged time and again to provide a plausible scenario to show how Bush "won" the election by 3.0 million. Lindeman agreed to the stipulation that we are all mortal and reduced the number of Gore and Bush voters by the agreed upon 0.87% annual mortality rate. To support a non-biased analysis for the base case scenario, equal Bush and Gore voter turnout rates were assumed. So far, so good. Lindeman effectively abandoned "false recall" in agreeing to a feasible, plausible returning voter mix.
15. Lindeman could not match the recorded 2004 vote using the Final NEP Bush vote shares that had already been inflated to match the vote. His only recourse was to inflate the shares even further - far beyond the margin of error. The "Game" proved that he could not provide one plausible Bush win scenario.
But Lindeman did not quit; he has since reverted back to “false recall” which he now uses to explain ALL 2004, 2006 and 2008 Final NEP returning Bush voter anomalies. And now you’ve heard the rest of the story.
|
Recorded |
1968 |
1972 |
1976 |
1980 |
1984 |
1988 |
1992 |
1996 |
2000 |
2004 |
2008 |
Average |
|
Winner |
Nixon |
Nixon |
Carter |
Reagan |
Reagan |
Bush |
|
|
Bush |
Bush |
Obama |
|
|
|
R |
R |
D |
R |
R |
R |
D |
D |
R |
R |
D |
|
|
TrueVote |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dem |
45.3% |
40.2% |
52.6% |
42.7% |
43.0% |
50.6% |
51.9% |
53.7% |
50.3% |
53.4% |
58.1% |
49.2% |
|
Rep |
41.9% |
57.0% |
45.7% |
49.6% |
56.4% |
48.4% |
30.8% |
37.2% |
46.1% |
45.3% |
40.5% |
45.4% |
|
Other |
12.8% |
2.8% |
1.7% |
7.8% |
0.6% |
1.0% |
17.3% |
9.2% |
3.6% |
1.3% |
1.4% |
5.4% |
|
Margin |
3.4% |
-16.9% |
6.8% |
-6.9% |
-13.4% |
2.1% |
21.0% |
16.5% |
4.3% |
8.1% |
17.6% |
3.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dem |
42.9% |
36.2% |
50.1% |
41.0% |
40.6% |
45.6% |
43.0% |
49.2% |
48.4% |
48.3% |
52.9% |
45.3% |
|
Rep |
43.6% |
60.7% |
48.0% |
50.7% |
58.8% |
53.4% |
37.4% |
40.7% |
47.9% |
50.7% |
45.6% |
48.9% |
|
Other |
13.6% |
3.1% |
1.9% |
8.3% |
0.7% |
1.0% |
19.5% |
10.1% |
3.8% |
1.0% |
1.5% |
5.9% |
|
Margin |
-0.7% |
-24.4% |
2.1% |
-9.7% |
-18.2% |
-7.7% |
5.6% |
8.5% |
0.5% |
-2.5% |
7.3% |
-3.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Avg |
Avg |
|
|
Margin |
1968 |
1972 |
1976 |
1980 |
1984 |
1988 |
1992 |
1996 |
2000 |
2004 |
2008 |
Margin |
Dev |
Diff NES |
|
NES |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
-6.7% |
-28.3% |
2.3% |
-11.4% |
-16.3% |
-5.7% |
13.9% |
15.5% |
4.2% |
-0.4% |
21.0% |
-1.08% |
-0.54% |
|
|
ABS |
6.7% |
28.3% |
2.3% |
11.4% |
16.3% |
5.7% |
13.9% |
15.5% |
4.2% |
0.4% |
21.0% |
11.43% |
5.71% |
|
|
Dem |
|
|
2.3% |
|
|
|
13.9% |
15.5% |
4.2% |
|
21.0% |
11.38% |
5.69% |
|
|
Repub |
6.7% |
28.3% |
|
11.4% |
16.3% |
5.7% |
|
|
|
0.4% |
|
11.47% |
5.73% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
3.4% |
-16.9% |
6.8% |
-6.9% |
-13.4% |
2.1% |
21.0% |
16.5% |
4.3% |
8.1% |
17.6% |
3.88% |
1.94% |
2.48% |
|
ABS |
3.4% |
16.9% |
6.8% |
6.9% |
13.4% |
2.1% |
21.0% |
16.5% |
4.3% |
8.1% |
17.6% |
10.63% |
5.32% |
-0.40% |
|
Dem |
3.4% |
|
6.8% |
|
|
2.1% |
21.0% |
16.5% |
4.3% |
8.1% |
17.6% |
9.98% |
4.99% |
-0.70% |
|
Repub |
|
16.9% |
|
6.9% |
13.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
12.39% |
6.19% |
0.46% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
-0.7% |
-24.4% |
2.1% |
-9.7% |
-18.2% |
-7.7% |
5.6% |
8.5% |
0.5% |
-2.5% |
7.3% |
-3.58% |
-1.79% |
-1.25% |
|
ABS |
0.7% |
24.4% |
2.1% |
9.7% |
18.2% |
7.7% |
5.6% |
8.5% |
0.5% |
2.5% |
7.3% |
7.93% |
3.96% |
-1.75% |
|
Dem |
|
|
2.1% |
|
|
|
5.6% |
8.5% |
0.5% |
|
7.3% |
4.79% |
2.39% |
-3.30% |
|
Repub |
0.7% |
24.4% |
|
9.7% |
18.2% |
7.7% |
|
|
|
2.5% |
|
10.54% |
5.27% |
-0.46% |
(4% MoE)
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
Recorded 3.0 2.0 -0.1 0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -4.2 -3.5 -1.9 -1.1 -6.9 -1.25
9< MoE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes No Yes
True 5.0 5.7 2.3 2.3 1.5 3.9 3.6 0.5 0.0 4.3 -1.7 2.47
8 < MoE No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Final NEP Returning Voter Mix (past vote forced to match)
Dem 55% 35% 30% 42% 34% 33% 28% 38% 41% 37% 37% 37.3%
Rep 35% 44% 53% 41% 44% 58% 53% 31% 33% 43% 46% 43.7%
Margin 20% -9% -23% 1% -10% -25% -25% 7% 8% -6% -9% -6.5%
