False Recall: Hoisted on its own Petard

 

TruthIsAll

 

Aug. 3, 2009

 

The False Recall hypothesis is hereby finally put to eternal rest. False Recall was a final “Hail Mary” pass to explain the impossible 43/37 returning Bush/Gore voter split in the Final 2004 National Exit Poll. Based on the results of NES surveys of retrospective votes, the theory cites the consistent differential between the respondent's recall of their past and recorded vote.

 

This analysis will show that the retrospective votes were well within the Recorded and True Vote margin of error. The respondents told the truth. False recall should be dismissed from the get-go because the implied assumptions were false.

 

False assumption 1:

-The 43/37 returning voter split was a legitimate sampled result; approximately 8% more Gore voters than Bush voters misreported their past vote.

But the exit pollsters always force the Final to match the recorded vote by adjusting all demographic cross tab weights and/or vote shares.

 

False assumption 2:

-The recorded vote is identical to the True Vote (i.e. the elections were fraud-free).

But a fraudulent historical recorded vote was used as the baseline to prove that the 2004 exit polls did not indicate fraud.

 

How do we know the recorded votes were fraudulent? Simple. There are millions of uncounted votes in every election; the vast majority Democratic.  And what about vote switching and ballot stuffing?  Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004 are examples of the failure of mechanical and electronic voting machines to properly record votes.

 

In the following analysis, the average True Vote margin was compared to the NES retrospective margins for all elections since 1968.  It will show that the basic premise of False Recall is bogus; there is no evidence that NES respondents did not tell the truth about their past vote.

 

In fact, in every election since 1968, the retrospective Democratic margin was higher than the recorded margin, confirming the True Vote Model. In 8 of the 11 elections, the Democratic True Vote share fell within the NES 4% margin of error.  

 

The Average NES winning margin was 11.4% (10.0% for the Dem and 12.4% for the Republicans).
The average Democratic True Vote winning margin was 10.0%
The average Republican True Vote winning margin was 12.4%

The average absolute NES/ True vote deviation for the 11 elections was 0.40%. Where’s the beef?

NES vs. True Vote Share (1968-2008)

The average absolute deviation for the 11 elections was -0.40%.

The average Democratic absolute deviation was -0.70%.

The average Republican deviation was 0.46%.

 

NES vs. Recorded Vote (1968-2008)

The average absolute vote share deviation was -1.75%.

The average Democratic absolute deviation was -3.30%.

The average Republican deviation was -0.46%.

 

Note the Democratic True and Recorded Vote margin vs. NES margin (1968-2008).

 

Why False Recall was even suggested in the first place is a mystery.

 

This is from "Too Many Bush Voters? False Vote Recall and the 2004 Exit Polls" by Mark Lindeman:

 

"George W. Bush evidently won in 2004 not by turning out a higher proportion of his 2000 supporters, but (inter alia) by winning the votes of millions of people whom, if asked, would not have recalled that they did not vote for him the first time around. The fraud theorists were right to infer that the previous-election tabulation could not mean what it said, and their account of it – a desperate attempt to paper over the evidence of a stolen election – has evident narrative appeal. On the evidence presented here, however, retrospective Bush bandwagoning is what we should have expected all along".

 

No, what we should have expected all along was that the media would go to any extreme to cover up the 2004 election theft.  So which is it? Slow-drifting fog? Mere forgetfulness? Retrospective bandwagon?  The comparative analysis is based on an invalid premise: that the recorded vote is the True Vote. This is obviously not the case; millions of (primarily Democratic) votes are uncounted in every election. Not to mention that votes were miscounted (see Ohio and Florida) and ballots stuffed. By not considering total votes cast, the analysis is misleading at best.

 

To summarize, here’s why the “false recall” hypothesis to explain the impossible Final 2004 National Exit Poll 43/37% returning Bush/Gore voter mix is just false.

 

1. False recall assumes that Alzheimer's was a Gore voter malady; Bush voters were immune to "mere forgetfulness".

 

2. Comparing the difference between the recorded vote and the retrospective past vote is a false dichotomy. The recorded vote, by definition, cannot represent the True Vote since it does not include millions of uncounted votes (a combination of spoiled, absentee, late and provisional ballots) that are heavily (70-80%) Democratic. Only by measuring the past vote against the True Vote (i.e. Total Votes Cast) is the past vote analysis even remotely valid.

 

3. The average absolute deviation between the NES and True Vote share was 0.40%. Where’s the beef?

 

4. Comparing the True Vote average margin to the NES average survey margin for the 11 elections from 1968-2008 actually debunks "false recall" and confirms endemic election fraud. Apparently, Lindeman never considered that the NES study would confirm the True Vote Model because he never did the analysis.  Yes, we can believe the NES survey, but only if the results are compared to the True Vote.

 

5. False recall is based on the premise that the returning Bush/Gore voter split (43/37%) in the Final National Exit Poll was a sampled result and that 3 of 40 (7.5%) Gore voters misreported their past vote. But it's standard operating procedure of the exit pollsters to force the Final to match the recorded vote by adjusting selected weights and/or vote shares in ALL demographic categories.

 

6. Even if we assume that the Final NEP (13660 respondents) returning Bush/Gore voter split was a sampled result, how does that explain that at 12:22am (13047 respondents) the split was 41/39%? Surely the 4% change in weights for 613 additional respondents is implausible. And it is important to note that only 3182 respondents were even asked the question about their past vote.

 

7. The majority (10,478) of respondents were only asked whom they voted for minutes before - not 4 years ago. And 51% said Kerry. Surely five minutes was too short a period for "mere forgetfulness", "slow-moving fog' or "bandwagon effect" (Bush had a 48% approval rating). The margin of error for a 10,000 sample is less than 1%.

 

8. In addition to the Final NEP there were 50 state exit polls. The unadjusted aggregate vote share was 52-47% in favor of Kerry. False recall was proposed to explain the Final NEP past vote anomaly, but ignores the state exit polls in which the respondents were asked who they just voted for. The Margin of Error for the total 70,000 state sample is significantly lower than 1% - even after adding an incremental "cluster effect" to the theoretical MoE.

 

9. The 2006 midterm and 2008 Final NEP effectively buried "false recall". Of course, It's SOP that returning Bush/Kerry returning voter weights would be adjusted to match the recorded vote. But look at HOW they were adjusted. In 2006 the Bush/Kerry mix was changed from 46.5/45.5% in the unadjusted exit poll to 49/43% in the Final. Bush had a 35% approval rating in 2006. The 2008 NEP 46/37% returning Bush/Kerry mix was mathematically impossible; it implied that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Bush "won" in 2004 by a fraudulent 3.0 million margin.

 

10. To say that a "slow-drifting fog" was unique to Gore voters is laughable and should be dismissed out-of-hand. Lindeman was left with a "latent Bush bandwagon effect" and "incumbency advantage" as possible explanations. But these are counter-intuitive; the 12:22am NEP indicated that 10% of returning Bush voters defected to Kerry and only 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush.

 

11. Regardless of how the exit poll responders stated they voted in 2000, Kerry enjoyed a net defection of these voters. It strains credulity that Gore voters would vote for Kerry and lie about their past vote. It also strains credulity that angry Gore voters would forget that the election was stolen from them when the Supreme Court nullified the Florida Supreme Court, halted the recount and handed the election to Bush.

 

12. It's irrelevant whether or not Gore voters misreported their past vote. Regardless of HOW they SAID they voted, the only thing that matters is a) how they actually voted in 2000 and b) how they actually voted in 2004. it's a simple fact that Gore had 51.0 million recorded votes and Bush 50.5 million. For simplicity, we can ignore the 5.4 million net uncounted votes (70-80% were for Gore). The recorded 2000 vote and the 1222am NEP indicated that Gore AND Kerry were winners.

 

13. The Final NEP weightings do not reflect that of Bush voters were MORTAL and ignores the obvious PHYSICAL constraint that voter turnout is always less than 100%. The “Clincher” sensitivity analysis shows that Kerry wins by 7 million - even in the unlikely scenario that returning Bush voter turnout was 98% and Gore turnout just 90%.

 

14. The Aug. 2005 "Game" was a classic Democratic Underground online debate between spreadsheet-wielding Internet bloggers and two prominent exit poll naysayers (Lindeman and Elizabeth Liddle). Prior to the "Game", Lindeman was challenged time and again to provide a plausible scenario to show how Bush "won" the election by 3.0 million. Lindeman agreed to the stipulation that we are all mortal and reduced the number of Gore and Bush voters by the agreed upon 0.87% annual mortality rate. To support a non-biased analysis for the base case scenario, equal Bush and Gore voter turnout rates were assumed. So far, so good. Lindeman effectively abandoned "false recall" in agreeing to a feasible, plausible returning voter mix.

 

15. Lindeman could not match the recorded 2004 vote using the Final NEP Bush vote shares that had already been inflated to match the vote. His only recourse was to inflate the shares even further - far beyond the margin of error.  The "Game" proved that he could not provide one plausible Bush win scenario.

 

But Lindeman did not quit; he has since reverted back to “false recall” which he now uses to explain ALL 2004, 2006 and 2008 Final NEP returning Bush voter anomalies. And now you’ve heard the rest of the story.

 

NES  retrospective vote shares and margins vs.  True Vote and Recorded Vote

 

 

Recorded

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Average

Winner

Nixon

Nixon

Carter

Reagan

Reagan

Bush

Clinton

Clinton

Bush

Bush

Obama

 

 

R

R

D

R

R

R

D

D

R

R

D

 

TrueVote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem

45.3%

40.2%

52.6%

42.7%

43.0%

50.6%

51.9%

53.7%

50.3%

53.4%

58.1%

49.2%

Rep

41.9%

57.0%

45.7%

49.6%

56.4%

48.4%

30.8%

37.2%

46.1%

45.3%

40.5%

45.4%

Other

12.8%

2.8%

1.7%

7.8%

0.6%

1.0%

17.3%

9.2%

3.6%

1.3%

1.4%

5.4%

Margin

3.4%

-16.9%

6.8%

-6.9%

-13.4%

2.1%

21.0%

16.5%

4.3%

8.1%

17.6%

3.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem

42.9%

36.2%

50.1%

41.0%

40.6%

45.6%

43.0%

49.2%

48.4%

48.3%

52.9%

45.3%

Rep

43.6%

60.7%

48.0%

50.7%

58.8%

53.4%

37.4%

40.7%

47.9%

50.7%

45.6%

48.9%

Other

13.6%

3.1%

1.9%

8.3%

0.7%

1.0%

19.5%

10.1%

3.8%

1.0%

1.5%

5.9%

Margin

-0.7%

-24.4%

2.1%

-9.7%

-18.2%

-7.7%

5.6%

8.5%

0.5%

-2.5%

7.3%

-3.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Avg

Avg

 

Margin

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Margin

Dev

Diff NES

NES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

-6.7%

-28.3%

2.3%

-11.4%

-16.3%

-5.7%

13.9%

15.5%

4.2%

-0.4%

21.0%

-1.08%

-0.54%

 

ABS

6.7%

28.3%

2.3%

11.4%

16.3%

5.7%

13.9%

15.5%

4.2%

0.4%

21.0%

11.43%

5.71%

 

Dem

 

 

2.3%

 

 

 

13.9%

15.5%

4.2%

 

21.0%

11.38%

5.69%

 

Repub

6.7%

28.3%

 

11.4%

16.3%

5.7%

 

 

 

0.4%

 

11.47%

5.73%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

3.4%

-16.9%

6.8%

-6.9%

-13.4%

2.1%

21.0%

16.5%

4.3%

8.1%

17.6%

3.88%

1.94%

2.48%

ABS

3.4%

16.9%

6.8%

6.9%

13.4%

2.1%

21.0%

16.5%

4.3%

8.1%

17.6%

10.63%

5.32%

-0.40%

Dem

3.4%

 

6.8%

 

 

2.1%

21.0%

16.5%

4.3%

8.1%

17.6%

9.98%

4.99%

-0.70%

Repub

 

16.9%

 

6.9%

13.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

12.39%

6.19%

0.46%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

-0.7%

-24.4%

2.1%

-9.7%

-18.2%

-7.7%

5.6%

8.5%

0.5%

-2.5%

7.3%

-3.58%

-1.79%

-1.25%

ABS

0.7%

24.4%

2.1%

9.7%

18.2%

7.7%

5.6%

8.5%

0.5%

2.5%

7.3%

7.93%

3.96%

-1.75%

Dem

 

 

2.1%

 

 

 

5.6%

8.5%

0.5%

 

7.3%

4.79%

2.39%

-3.30%

Repub

0.7%

24.4%

 

9.7%

18.2%

7.7%

 

 

 

2.5%

 

10.54%

5.27%

-0.46%

 

 

                                                                                                                                               

 

NES Deviations from the Recorded and True vote

(4% MoE)

 

                1968         1972         1976     1980     1984     1988     1992     1996     2000     2004     2008     Average

 

Recorded   3.0           2.0           -0.1       0.9        -0.9       -1.0       -4.2       -3.5       -1.9       -1.1       -6.9       -1.25

9< MoE     Yes           Yes          Yes      Yes      Yes      Yes      No        Yes      Yes      Yes      No        Yes

                                                                                                                                               

True          5.0            5.7           2.3        2.3        1.5        3.9        3.6        0.5        0.0        4.3        -1.7       2.47

8 < MoE    No           No            Yes      Yes      Yes      Yes      Yes      Yes      Yes      No        Yes      Yes

                                                                                                                                               

                                                                                                                                               

Final NEP Returning Voter Mix (past vote forced to match)

Dem          55%          35%         30%      42%      34%      33%      28%      38%      41%      37%      37%      37.3%

Rep           35%          44%         53%      41%      44%      58%      53%      31%      33%      43%      46%      43.7%

 

Margin       20%          -9%          -23%     1%       -10%     -25%     -25%     7%       8%       -6%      -9%      -6.5%