Phantom Bush Voters: True Vote Recall and the 1968-2008 Elections

 

TruthIsAll

 

August 9, 2009

 

This is from “Too Many Bush Voters? False Vote Recall and the 2004 Exit Polls” by Mark Lindeman

 

“False vote recall complicates our analysis of partisan dynamics, and challenges some unconscious assumptions. Political observers rarely profess surprise that some respondents wrongly claim to have voted, but some find it strange that millions of voters might misreport – indeed, might forget – whom they voted for four years ago. I have not presented (or uncovered) systematic evidence about the mechanism behind false vote recall, but mere forgetfulness is not a bad account for respondents who (e.g.) report in 2000 that they voted for Gore, then report four years later that they had voted for Bush in 2000 but for Kerry in 2004.

 

No spiral of silence this: more like a slow-drifting fog. I am reminded of Larry Bartels’ (1996) conclusion that presidential incumbents derive approximately a five-point advantage from “information effects” (or, one might say, non-information effects) in the electorate. False vote recall favoring the previous winner is one distinctive manifestation of this incumbency advantage, although its practical importance is difficult to gauge – especially given the confounding influence of differential turnout.

 

George W. Bush evidently won in 2004 not by turning out a higher proportion of his 2000 supporters, but (inter alia) by winning the votes of millions of people whom, if asked, would not have recalled that they did not vote for him the first time around. The fraud theorists were right to infer that the previous-election tabulation could not mean what it said, and their account of it – a desperate attempt to paper over the evidence of a stolen election – has evident narrative appeal. On the evidence presented here, however, retrospective Bush bandwagoning is what we should have expected all along”.

 

No, what we should have expected all along was that the media would go to any extreme to cover up the 2004 election theft. Otherwise, endemic fraud that has permeated our elections for many years might also be uncovered.

 

False recall was based on an NES 600-sample survey. It compared the respondent’s recall of their past vote to the recorded vote. But there are millions of uncounted votes in every election. And we know that votes were miscounted and ballots stuffed (see Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004). By not considering total votes cast, “false recall” is based on the false premise that the recorded vote is identical to the True vote and that elections are fraud-free.

 

False recall was advanced immediately after the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) theory was thoroughly debunked. The exit poll naysayers could not provide a rational explanation for the Final 2004 National Exit Poll’s impossible returning Bush voter anomaly; they had to come up with another explanation. It was the equivalent of a “Hail Mary” pass; there was no other way to rebut the analysis of countless researchers that the 2004 exit polls provide overwhelming evidence that the election was stolen. Even assuming the unlikely scenario that a significant percentage of voters forgot their past vote, that does not explain why Gore voters would forget or misreport their vote at a much higher rate than Bush voters.

 

False recall was proposed to call into question the 2004 unadjusted and preliminary exit poll results. The media fiction was that Bush won the election fairly; it had to be maintained that the recorded vote sacrosanct. Of course they must have also considered that the discrepancy was due to massive fraud – but never dared mention it. Therefore, they had to claim that the unadjusted (unweighted) exit polls were “bad” since they differed from the “actuals” - the official recorded vote.

 

The mathematically impossible Final National Exit Poll 43/37% returning Bush/Gore voter mix refuted rBr. The Hobson’s choice was to either accept a mathematically impossible Final Exit Poll or claim that exit poll responders misstated their 2000 vote due to “false recall”. They were forced to choose the latter.

 

But just 3200 of 13,000 NEP respondents were asked whom they voted for in 2000. What about the other 10,000 who weren’t asked the question? Surely a “slow-drifting fog” would not cause them to forget that they just voted for Kerry. So the only other explanation was that they intentionally misrepresented their vote. If so, what was their motive? Was it to jump on a four-year retrospective Bush bandwagon? What bandwagon? He had a 48% approval rating!

 

Why “false recall” was even suggested as an explanation is a mystery. Apparently, Lindeman never considered that NES would confirm the True Vote model - not refute it. His analysis was predicated on the premise that it was correct to use the recorded vote as a baseline (i.e. assume the election was fraud-free). In other words, a fraudulent recorded vote was assumed in concluding that the Final 2004 National Exit Poll 43/37 split was due to substantially more Gore than Bush voters misrepresenting their 2000 vote. That is a circular argument.

 

So which is it? Slow-drifting fog? Mere forgetfulness? Retrospective bandwagon? The answer is: None of the above!

 

The NES responders told the truth about their vote.

 

Comparing the average True Vote margin to the average NES margin for all 11 elections from 1968-2008 actually debunks “false recall”. The analysis confirms that election fraud is endemic; it always reduces the Democratic True vote! The average Democratic True Vote margin was 49.2-45.4%. In 8 of the 11 elections, the Democratic True Vote share fell within the NES 4% margin of error. 

 

The average absolute NES/ True vote deviation for the 11 elections was -0.40%. Where’s the beef?

 

The True Vote shares were within 1% of NES!

 

The Average NES winning margin was 11.4% (11.4% for the Democrats and 11.5% for the Republicans).

The average Democratic True Vote winning margin was 10.0%

The average Republican True Vote winning margin was 12.4%

 

Note the Democratic True and Recorded Vote margin vs. NES margin (1968-2008).

 

NES vs. True Vote Share (1968-2008)

The average absolute deviation for the 11 elections was -0.40%.

The average Democratic absolute deviation was -0.70%.

The average Republican deviation was 0.46%.

 

NES vs. Recorded Vote (1968-2008)

The average absolute vote share deviation was -1.75%.

The average Democratic absolute deviation was -3.30%.

The average Republican deviation was -0.46%.

 

The “confounding influence of differential turnout” is just fancy jargon to impress the unwashed. A robust sensitivity analysis (see below) of varying Gore and Bush voter turnout based on total votes cast indicates that Kerry would have won the True vote by 7 million - even assuming an implausible Bush/Gore voter differential turnout of 98/90% in 2004. He wins by 10.2 million assuming equal 98% turnout!

 

Differential turnout is not a confounding variable after all.

 

The exit poll debate was transformed into pseudo-psychological “false recall” conjecture. As a “spreadsheet-wielding Internet blogger” dealing with factual data, I never thought I would have to become an armchair psychologist.  Let’s stipulate that humans tend to bury past transgressions into their unconscious.

 

It’s extremely unlikely that Gore voters would forget that the election was stolen from them in broad daylight; after all, they were the ones who were wronged. They would have no incentive, conscious or otherwise, to misrepresent their vote. Gore voters had nothing to be ashamed of. On the other hand, voting for Bush in 2000 was an act regretted by many (he had 48% approval on Election Day 2004).  It’s more plausible that returning Bush voters would have regretted their past vote and tell the exit pollsters that they voted for Gore in 2000 – and that they just voted for Kerry.

 

Let’s not forget the 70,000 State exit poll respondents. Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll aggregate by 52-47% - a 6 million margin. Lindeman never discussed the state exit polls in his false recall argument. Rather, he wants us to believe that a 600 sample retrospective survey taken four years after the election renders null and void 18 national pre-election polls (27,000 total respondents); 50 state pre-election polls (40,000); 50 state exit polls (70,000) and the 12:22am National Exit Poll (13,047).

 

The simple fact is that in every election millions of votes are uncounted, therefore the recorded vote cannot represent the True Vote. The analysis presented by Lindeman implicitly assumes that the recorded vote is equal to the True Vote. But knowing the True Vote is what the exit poll debate is all about. Given the faulty premise, why even bother to continue to proceed further and refute his paper point by point? 

 

The 2004 Census reported that 125.7 million votes were cast. Only 122.3 million were recorded; there were approximately 3.4 million net uncounted votes. Iin 1988, there were 10.6 million net uncounted votes. The Census margin of error for total votes cast is 0.30%.

 

The “Swing vs. Red-shift” argument was another canard meant to confuse and misdirect. The claim was that that fraud was unlikely since there was no direct correlation between swing (change in the Bush recorded vote from 2000 to 2004) and “red-shift” (the 2004 exit poll discrepancy). The argument was ridiculous on its face; a positive correlation is not a necessary requirement for fraud. Swing vs. Red-shift was formally debunked in a pure math logic proof by Kathy Dopp at US Count Votes.

 

Swing vs. Red-shift was based on the same invalid premise as “False Recall”: that the recorded vote was equivalent to the True Vote.  Net uncounted votes were not factored into the equation even though uncounted and stuffed ballots caused the Democrats to lose millions of votes in every election. It was an exercise in circular logic by requiring that there must be a correlation between bogus recorded vote counts (“swing”) and exit poll (“red-shift”) discrepancies in order to prove election fraud.

 

A True Vote post-election analysis shows that Kerry won beyond a reasonable doubt. The analysis is based on plausible and feasible estimates of 1) total votes cast in 2000 and 2004, 2) 2000 voter mortality, 3) turnout of living Bush and Gore voters in 2004, and 4) 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares. The analysis indicates that Kerry won by 53-46% (10 million)- a 13 million margin discrepancy from the recorded vote.

 

Why use 12:22am (13047 respondents) and not the Final NEP (13660) vote shares? Because the Final NEP vote shares were forced to match the vote and were not plausible. Just changing to a mathematically impossible Bush/Gore returning voter mix was insufficient to match the recorded vote; the vote shares  had to be changed as well. It was the equivalent of the Texas two-step: the Final was forced to match the recorded vote by 1) changing the returning voter mix (even though it required 6 million phantom Bush voters) and 2) increasing Bush’s corresponding 2004 vote shares beyond the margin of error.

 

False Recall was the ultimate naysayer “explanation” for the Final 2004 National Exit Poll anomalies. The 2006 and 2008 Final NEP anomalies exposed the fallacy of the 2004 argument.  A True Vote analysis based on the recurring 2004, 2006 and 2008 anomalies finally puts “false recall” to eternal rest.

 

1) Bush approval was in the tank: 35% (2006) and 22% (2008). It was 48% in 2004.

2) The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was changed from an improbable ratio in the unadjusted exit poll to an impossible one in the Final NEP.

3) Millions of phantom Bush voters were required to match the recorded vote.

 

It should be obvious to any impartial observer that there is no basis for comparison between the limited NES samples and the massive pre-election and exit poll samples. The evidence is overwhelming that Kerry won the election. The only question is by how much.

 

The final 18 national pre-election polls (after undecided voters were allocated) projected that Kerry would win by 51-48%.

The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (WPE/IMS) indicated he won by 52-47%.

The initial adjusted aggregate (“Best GEO”) had 51-48%.

The final (12:40am) adjusted aggregate (“Composite”) had 50.5-48.5%.

 

The True Vote Model indicates that Kerry won by 53-46%, a 10 million margin. The Final National Exit Poll (Bush by 50.7-48.3%)was forced to match a fraudulent recorded vote using an impossible number of returning Bush 2000 voters.

 

In the 2006 midterms, the Final NEP indicated there were 5 million more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters. Bush “won” the in 2004 by 3.0 million recorded votes. The preliminary 730pm NEP had a 47/45 returning Bush/Kerry voter mix and projected a 55-43% Democratic landslide. The Final indicated a 49/43 mix and a 52-46% Democratic margin. Of course, the Final was forced to match the recorded vote.

 

The Final 2008 NEP shows a ridiculous 46/37 returning Bush/Kerry mix. Preliminary state and national exit polls have not been and apparently never will be released. But we don’t need them. As in 2004, the returning voter mix was mathematically impossible; it indicated 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.

Even if one believes that the 2004 election was fraud-free, how could there have been 12 million more returning Bush voters? On the other hand, if Kerry won by the unadjusted exit poll 52-47% split (a six million vote margin) one would expect approximately 6 million more returning Kerry voters than Bush voters - a whopping 18 million net deviation.

 

To explain the returning voter mix, will Lindeman claim that returning Kerry voters misreported their 2004 vote and say they voted for Bush - even though he had a 22% approval ratiing on Election Day 2008? That would be the only way to explain the official 9.5 million Obama margin (52.9-45.6%).  Apparently, the 2004 vote-switching algorithm could not overcome a 22 million Obama True Vote landslide.

 

The media consortium that sponsored the exit polls has not released the 2008 exit poll report. The 2004 report was released on Jan.19, 2005, one day before the Bush inaugural. It is clear that the consortium does not want a repeat of the 2004 exit poll controversy. Releasing the state unadjusted exit poll (WPE) data would only confirm that election fraud is endemic.

 

Let’s summarize why the “false recall” hypothesis to explain the impossible Final 2004 National Exit Poll 43/37% returning Bush/Gore voter mix is just, well, false.

 

1. False recall assumes that Alzheimer's was a Gore voter malady. Bush voters were immune to "mere forgetfulness" or a “slow drifting fog”.

 

2. Comparing the difference between the recorded vote and the retrospective past vote is a false dichotomy. The recorded vote, by definition, cannot represent the True Vote since it does not include millions of uncounted votes (spoiled, absentee, late and provisional ballots) that are heavily (70-80%) Democratic. Only by measuring the past vote against the True Vote (i.e. Total Votes Cast) is the analysis even remotely valid.

 

3. The average NES/True vote share deviation was 0.40%. Where’s the beef?

 

4. Comparing the True Vote average margin to the NES average survey margin for the 11 elections from 1968-2008 debunks "false recall" and confirms endemic election fraud. Apparently, Lindeman never considered that the NES study would confirm the True Vote Model because he never did the analysis. NES results must be compared to the True Vote (i.e. total Votes Cast) for the analysis to have any validity.

 

5. False recall is based on the premise that the returning Bush/Gore voter split (43/37%) in the Final National Exit Poll was a sampled result and that 3 of 40 (7.5%) Gore voters misreported their past vote. But it's standard operating procedure of the exit pollsters to force the Final to match the recorded vote by adjusting selected weights and/or vote shares in all demographic categories.

 

6. Even if we assume that the Final NEP (13660 respondents) returning Bush/Gore voter split was a true sample, how does that explain that at 12:22am (13047 respondents) the split was 41/39%? Surely the 4% change in weights for 613 additional respondents is implausible. And only 3182 respondents were even asked the question about their past vote.

 

7. The majority (10,478) of respondents were only asked whom they voted for minutes before - not 4 years ago. And most said Kerry. Surely five minutes was too short a period for "mere forgetfulness", "slow-moving fog' or "bandwagon effect" (Bush had a 48% approval rating). The margin of error for a 10,000 sample is less than 1%.

 

8. In addition to the Final NEP, there were 50 state exit polls. The unadjusted aggregate national share was 52-47% in favor of Kerry. False recall was proposed to explain the Final NEP past vote anomaly, but ignores the state exit polls in which the respondents were asked who they just voted for. The margin of error for the total 70,000 state sample is significantly lower than 1% - even after adding an incremental "cluster effect".

 

9. The 2006 midterm and 2008 Final NEP effectively buried "false recall". Of course, it's standard operating procedure that the returning Bush/Kerry voter mix  (as well as the vote shares) would be adjusted to match the recorded vote. But look at how they were adjusted. In the 2006 midterms, the Bush/Kerry mix was changed from 46.5/45.5% in the unadjusted exit poll to 49/43% in the Final, cutting the Democratic margin from 56-42% to 52-46%. Bush had a 35% approval rating in 2006. The 2008 NEP  returning Bush/Kerry mix (46/37%) was mathematically impossible; it implied that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Bush "won" in 2004 by a fraudulent 3.0 million margin. He won the recorded vote by 52.9-45.6%. We don’t have the unadjusted exit polls (will they ever be released?), but a True Vote analysis indicates that Obama won by 57-41%.

 

10. To say that a "slow-drifting fog" was unique to Gore voters is laughable and should be dismissed out-of-hand. Lindeman was left with a "latent Bush bandwagon effect" and an "incumbency advantage" as possible explanations. But the 12:22am NEP indicated that 10% of returning Bush voters defected to Kerry and only 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush.

 

11. It strains credulity that Gore voters would vote for Kerry and lie about their past vote. Or would forget that the election was stolen from them. How could they forget that the Supreme Court nullified the Florida Supreme Court, halted the recount and handed the election to Bush?

 

12. But the bottom line is that it's irrelevant whether or not Gore voters misreported. Regardless of how they said they voted, the only thing that matters is a) how they actually voted in 2000 and b) how they actually voted in 2004. Gore had 51.0 million recorded votes and Bush 50.5 million. For simplicity, we can ignore the 5.4 million net uncounted votes (70-80% were for Gore). The recorded 2000 vote and the 1222am NEP indicated that Gore and Kerry were winners.

 

13. The Final NEP 43/37 weightings did not consider that even Bush 2000 voters were mortal  (5% died prior to 2004). Besides, the fact is that voter turnout is always less than 100%. The “Clincher” sensitivity analysis shows that even assuming the unlikely scenario of 98/90% returning Bush/Gote voter turnout, Kerry still wins by 7 million votes. With equal turnout, Kerry wins by 10 million.

 

14. The Aug. 2005 "Game" was a classic Democratic Underground online debate between spreadsheet-wielding Internet bloggers and two prominent exit poll naysayers (Lindeman and Elizabeth Liddle). Prior to the "Game", Lindeman was challenged time and again to provide a plausible scenario to show how Bush "won" the election by 3.0 million. He agreed to the stipulation that we are all mortal and reduced the number of Gore and Bush voters by the annual mortality rate. To support a non-biased analysis for the base case scenario, equal Bush and Gore voter turnout rates were assumed. Lindeman effectively abandoned "false recall" in agreeing to a feasible, plausible returning voter mix.

 

15. But Lindeman could not match the recorded 2004 vote using the Final NEP Bush vote shares that had already been inflated to match the recorded vote. His only recourse was to inflate the shares even further - far beyond the margin of error.  The "Game" proved that he could not provide one plausible Bush win scenario. But Lindeman did not quit; he has since reverted back to “false recall” which he now uses to explain all 2004, 2006 and 2008 Final NEP returning Bush voter anomalies. And now you’ve heard the rest of the story.

 

Postscript

On page 4 of his paper, Lindeman writes:

“Consider: In the 2000 VNS exit poll, the weighted results indicate that 45.6% of respondents had voted for Bill Clinton in 1996, while 31.3% had voted for Bob Dole, 6.5% for Ross Perot, 2.4% for another candidate, and 12.5% had not voted (1.7% skipped the question). The unweighted results are similar. 9 Thus, Clinton’s apparent margin over Dole is 14.3% of all respondents, or 16.7% of those who said they had voted in 1996. By contrast, in the 1996 returns, Clinton received 49.2%, Dole 40.7%, Perot 8.4%, and other candidates about 1.7%. That is, Clinton won by only 8.5 points. Of course, we cannot assume that the 2000 proportions should match the 1996 proportions. Nonetheless, these results are “impossible” in precisely the same sense as the 2004 results. In 2000, 105.4 million presidential votes were counted, of whom 45.6% would equal about 48.1 million Clinton 1996 voters. Yet Clinton received only 47.4 million votes in 1996, of whom presumably under 46 million survived in 2000. The maximum possible proportion of Clinton 1996 voters in the 2000 electorate is some two points lower than the reported proportion – a discrepancy well beyond expected sampling error.10

 

How, then, do we explain the “impossibly high” proportion of Clinton 1996 voters in the 2000 exit poll? Is it likely that Al Gore stole millions of votes in 2000, and Clinton voters were upweighted in the exit poll to match the result? Or that millions of votes were stolen from Clinton in 1996? Perhaps anything is possible, but given that the 1996 and 2000 national exit poll estimates came close to the official returns, neither conjecture seems at all likely. Likelier, again, is that many respondents in 2000 wrongly reported having voted for Clinton in 1996”.

 

That’s a reasonable question. But once again, Lindeman makes the “mistake” of using the recorded vote- not Total Votes Cast. He ignores uncounted votes. The 2000 Final National Exit Poll as always, was forced to match the recorded vote. The True Vote is based on the unmentionable Total Votes Cast.

 

In 2000, there were 110.4 million votes cast and 105.4 million recorded.

There were 5.4 million net uncounted votes.

In 1996, there were 105.2 million votes cast and 96.3 million recorded.

There were 8.9 million net uncounted votes.

 

Let’s include uncounted votes in order to determine the True Vote in both elections. The best estimate is that 75% of the uncounted votes were for Clinton. Therefore, there were 54.0 million votes cast for Clinton, 41.2m for Dole, 9.9m for Perot/other.

 

Deduct 5% from votes cast for mortality. Next assume that 96% of voters turned out in 2000. There were 51.4m returning Clinton voters, 35.6m Dole and 8.8m Perot/other and 15.9m DNV96. The returning voter mix was 48.7% Clinton, 33.8% Dole and 8.3% Perot/other. The Clinton 14.9% voter turnout margin is within 0.6% of the Final National Exit Poll (14.3%) turnout margin!

 

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

NES  retrospective vote shares and margins vs.  True Vote and Recorded Vote

 

 

Recorded

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Average

Winner

Nixon

Nixon

Carter

Reagan

Reagan

Bush

Clinton

Clinton

Bush

Bush

Obama

 

 

R

R

D

R

R

R

D

D

R

R

D

 

TrueVote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem

45.3%

40.2%

52.6%

42.7%

43.0%

50.6%

51.9%

53.7%

50.3%

53.4%

58.1%

49.2%

Rep

41.9%

57.0%

45.7%

49.6%

56.4%

48.4%

30.8%

37.2%

46.1%

45.3%

40.5%

45.4%

Other

12.8%

2.8%

1.7%

7.8%

0.6%

1.0%

17.3%

9.2%

3.6%

1.3%

1.4%

5.4%

Margin

3.4%

-16.9%

6.8%

-6.9%

-13.4%

2.1%

21.0%

16.5%

4.3%

8.1%

17.6%

3.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem

42.9%

36.2%

50.1%

41.0%

40.6%

45.6%

43.0%

49.2%

48.4%

48.3%

52.9%

45.3%

Rep

43.6%

60.7%

48.0%

50.7%

58.8%

53.4%

37.4%

40.7%

47.9%

50.7%

45.6%

48.9%

Other

13.6%

3.1%

1.9%

8.3%

0.7%

1.0%

19.5%

10.1%

3.8%

1.0%

1.5%

5.9%

Margin

-0.7%

-24.4%

2.1%

-9.7%

-18.2%

-7.7%

5.6%

8.5%

0.5%

-2.5%

7.3%

-3.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Avg

Avg

 

Margin

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Margin

Dev

Diff NES

NES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

-6.7%

-28.3%

2.3%

-11.4%

-16.3%

-5.7%

13.9%

15.5%

4.2%

-0.4%

21.0%

-1.08%

-0.54%

 

ABS

6.7%

28.3%

2.3%

11.4%

16.3%

5.7%

13.9%

15.5%

4.2%

0.4%

21.0%

11.43%

5.71%

 

Dem

 

 

2.3%

 

 

 

13.9%

15.5%

4.2%

 

21.0%

11.38%

5.69%

 

Repub

6.7%

28.3%

 

11.4%

16.3%

5.7%

 

 

 

0.4%

 

11.47%

5.73%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

3.4%

-16.9%

6.8%

-6.9%

-13.4%

2.1%

21.0%

16.5%

4.3%

8.1%

17.6%

3.88%

1.94%

2.48%

ABS

3.4%

16.9%

6.8%

6.9%

13.4%

2.1%

21.0%

16.5%

4.3%

8.1%

17.6%

10.63%

5.32%

-0.40%

Dem

3.4%

 

6.8%

 

 

2.1%

21.0%

16.5%

4.3%

8.1%

17.6%

9.98%

4.99%

-0.70%

Repub

 

16.9%

 

6.9%

13.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

12.39%

6.19%

0.46%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

-0.7%

-24.4%

2.1%

-9.7%

-18.2%

-7.7%

5.6%

8.5%

0.5%

-2.5%

7.3%

-3.58%

-1.79%

-1.25%

ABS

0.7%

24.4%

2.1%

9.7%

18.2%

7.7%

5.6%

8.5%

0.5%

2.5%

7.3%

7.93%

3.96%

-1.75%

Dem

 

 

2.1%

 

 

 

5.6%

8.5%

0.5%

 

7.3%

4.79%

2.39%

-3.30%

Repub

0.7%

24.4%

 

9.7%

18.2%

7.7%

 

 

 

2.5%

 

10.54%

5.27%

-0.46%

 

 

 

NES Deviations from the Recorded and True vote

(4% MoE)

 

                1968         1972         1976     1980     1984     1988     1992     1996     2000     2004     2008     Average

 

Recorded   3.0           2.0           -0.1       0.9        -0.9       -1.0       -4.2       -3.5       -1.9       -1.1       -6.9       -1.25

9< MoE     Yes           Yes          Yes      Yes      Yes      Yes      No        Yes      Yes      Yes      No        Yes

                                                                                                                                               

True          5.0            5.7           2.3        2.3        1.5        3.9        3.6        0.5        0.0        4.3        -1.7       2.47

8 < MoE    No           No            Yes      Yes      Yes      Yes      Yes      Yes      Yes      No        Yes      Yes

                                                                                                                                               

                                                                                                                                               

Final NEP Returning Voter Mix (past vote forced to match)

Dem          55%          35%         30%      42%      34%      33%      28%      38%      41%      37%      37%      37.3%

Rep           35%          44%         53%      41%      44%      58%      53%      31%      33%      43%      46%      43.7%

 

Margin       20%          -9%          -23%     1%       -10%     -25%     -25%     7%       8%       -6%      -9%      -6.5%

 

 

 

2000

Method: Forced to Match                                                                                                                                            

                                                                95%        96%                                                                                                       

                                Cast        Record   Alive      Voted                     Voter                                                                     

                1996        1996        1996        2000        2000                        Turnout Mix         Gore        Bush       Other      Turnout/Alive

DNV                       -               -               -               -                               15.92       15.1%     42%        51%        7%          -

Clinton   49.2%     53.95       47.40       45.03       43.23                       48.07       45.6%     82%        15%        3%          107%

Dole        40.7%     41.16       39.20       37.24       35.75                       33.00       31.3%     7%          91%        2%          89%

Perot       10.1%     9.90         9.68         9.20         8.83                         8.43         8.0%       31%        61%        8%          92%

                                                                                                                                                                                               

Total                       105.02     96.28       91.47       87.81                       105.42     Total       48.41%   47.90%   3.69%    

                                                                                                                                                51.03       50.50       3.89        

                                                                                                                                                                                               

                                                                                                                      Recorded         48.38%   47.86%   3.76%    

                                                                                                                                105.42     51.00       50.46       3.96        

 

Method:  True Vote                                                                                                                                         

                                                                95%        96%                                                                                                       

                                Cast        Record   Alive      Voted                     Voter                                                                     

                1996        1996        1996        2000        2000                        Turnout Mix         Gore        Bush       Other      Turnout/Alive

DNV                       -               -               -               -                               15.05       9.1%       42%        51%        7%          -

Clinton   53.7%     56.34       47.40       53.53       51.39                       51.39       48.7%     82%        15%        3%          96%

Dole        37.2%     39.03       39.20       37.08       35.60                       35.60       33.8%     7%          91%        2%          96%

Perot       9.2%       9.64         9.68         9.16         8.79                         8.79         8.3%       31%        61%        8%          96%

                                                                                                                                                                                               

Total                       105.02     96.28       99.77       95.78                       110.83     Total       48.76%   47.79%    3.76%    

                                                                                                                                                54.04       52.97       3.82       

                                                                                                                                                                                               

                                                                                                                   Recorded           48.38%   47.86%     3.76%                    

                                                                                                                                105.42     51.00      50.46        3.96        

 

 

2004

12:22am NEP

Requires 105% turnout of Bush 2000 voters

Kerry wins by 4.5 million votes

 

Voted   Mix            Kerry      Bush       Other      Turnout/Alive

DNV     17%           57%        41%        2%          -

Gore    39%            91%        8%          1%          98.4%

Bush    41%           10%        90%        0%          104.6%

Other    3%            64%        17%        19%        97.5%

 

NEP     100%          51.20%   47.50%   1.30%     3.70%

Votes  122.30          62.62      58.09       1.59         4.52

 

Recorded 122.30   48.27%   50.73%   1.00%     -2.46%

Votes      122.30     59.03       62.04       1.23         -3.01

 

 

2004 Final NEP

(forced to match the the recorded vote)

Requires 110% turnout of Bush 2000 voters

 

        Mix Kerry      Bush       Other      Turnout/Alive

DNV     17%           54%        45%        1%          -

Gore    37%            90%        10%        0%          93.4%

Bush    43%           9%          91%        0%          109.7%

Other    3%            71%        21%        8%          97.5%

 

NEP     100%          48.48%   51.11%   0.41%     -2.63%

Votes  122.30         59.29       62.51       0.50         -3.22

 

Recorded 100%    48.27%   50.73%   1.00%     -2.46%

Votes   122.30        59.03       62.04       1.23         -3.01

 

 

2004 True Vote Analysis

 

Basic assumptions:

Gore won 75% of 5.4 million uncounted votes (plausible)

Vote Mortality: 5% from 2000-2004 (very accurate)

Voter Turnout: 98% of LIVING Gore and Bush voters (based on Census data)

Vote shares: 12:22am NEP (Conservative:in process of being matched to recorded vote)

Final NEP shares were not assumed since they were FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE.

(see the Final NEP above)

 

Kerry wins by 10.2 million votes

 

                                        95%                98%                                                                                       

                Cast        Record   Alive      Voted     2004        True Vote                                                             

2000        2000        2000        2004        2004        Turnout Mix         Kerry      Bush       Other      Turnout/Alive

DNV       -               -               -               -               22.56       15.6%     57%        41%        2%          -

Gore        55.79       51.00       53.00       51.94       51.94       42.5%     91%        8%          1%          98.0%

Bush       51.05       50.46       48.50       47.53       47.53       38.9%     10%        90%        0%          98.0%

Other      3.99         3.96         3.79         3.71         3.71         3.0%       64%        17%        19%        98.0%

 

Total       110.83     105.42     105.28     103.18     125.74     100%      53.39%   45.30%   1.31%     8.09%

                Cast        Recorded                                               Total       67.13       56.96       1.65         10.17

Gore        50.34%   48.38%                                              Recorded    48.27%   50.73%   1.00%    

Bush       46.06%   47.86%                                                   122.30     59.03       62.04       1.23        

Other      3.60%     3.76%                                                                                                                    

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

Voter Turnout

 

Kerry wins by 7.3 million votes in the worst case scenario

(98% Bush voter turnout; 90% Gore voter turnout)

 

Kerry Share                            

Bush                       Gore Turnout                                       

Turnout 90%        92%        94%        96%        98%

                                                                               

90%        53.7%     54.0%     54.3%     54.6%     54.9%

92%        53.3%     53.6%     53.9%     54.2%     54.5%

94%        53.0%     53.3%     53.5%     53.8%     54.1%

96%        52.6%     52.9%     53.2%     53.5%     53.8%

98%        52.2%     52.5%     52.8%     53.1%     53.4%

                                                                               

                                Kerry Margin                                       

                                                                               

90%        11.1         11.8         12.5         13.3         14.0

92%        10.1         10.9         11.6         12.3         13.0

94%        9.2           9.9           10.6         11.4         12.1

96%        8.2           8.9           9.7           10.4         11.1

98%        7.3           8.0           8.7           9.4           10.2

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

Voter mortality and Turnout

 

Changes in Mortality assumptions have virtually no impact on vote share.

Note: Bush voter turnout is assumed equal to Gore turnout

Kerry Share                            

Mortality               Gore Turnout                                       

                96%        97%        98%        99%        100%

 

6.0%       53.14%   53.28%   53.43%   53.57%   53.72%

5.5%       53.11%   53.26%   53.41%   53.55%   53.70%

5.0%       53.09%   53.24%   53.39%   53.54%   53.68%

4.5%       53.07%   53.22%   53.37%   53.52%   53.67%

4.0%       53.05%   53.20%   53.35%   53.50%   53.65%

                                                                               

                                Kerry Margin                                       

                                                                               

6.0%       9.6           9.9           10.3         10.6         11.0

5.5%       9.5           9.9           10.2         10.6         11.0

5.0%       9.4           9.8           10.2         10.5         10.9

4.5%       9.4           9.8           10.1         10.5         10.9

4.0%       9.3           9.7           10.1         10.4         10.8

 

                                                                                                                                                                                               

 

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline

AGE Demographic

(Weights and vote shares in percent)

 

Note that there is very little change from 4pm to 12:22am.

But the 30-44 and 60+ category weights are changed by 2% in the Final.

Bush was leading in the 2 groups at 12:22am! Just a coincidence?

Kerry vote shares were reduced by 2-3% in all age groups in the Final!

There were only 613 additional respondents after 12:22am.

All other demographic categories had to be adjusted in the final national exit poll to force a match to the recorded vote.

 

Update             4pm   730pm  1222am  Final                       4pm    730pm  1222am Final

Respondents  8349   11027   13047   13660                       8349  11027   13047  13660

 

                                  Category Weights (%)                         Kerry vote share (%)

18-29               15    17            17            17                            56            56            56            54 <<

30-44               27    27            27            29<<                       48            49            49            46 <<<

45-59               31    30            30            30                            52            51            51            48 <<<

60+                  27    26            26            24<<                       48            48            48            46 <<

 

Total            100     100          100          100                          50.44       50.53       50.53       47.96

Votes  (in millions)                                                               61.67       61.78       61.78       58.64

 

< indicates percent change from 12:22am