The Final Exit Poll Timeline Exposes the "False Recall" Canard

 

TruthIsAll

 

Dec. 9, 2009

 

The purpose of this post is to lay out the evidence which disproves “false recall”, the final argument that has been promoted to cast doubt on the preliminary 2004 National Exit Poll  (NEP) in which Kerry was a 51-48% winner. The unadjusted aggregate state exit polls had Kerry winning by 52-47%

 

The premise of false recall is that the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Gore voter share in the Final 2004 National Exit Poll was due to returning Gore voters misstating their past vote. The Final NEP was forced to match the 51-48% recorded Bush win.

 

The Final NEP is mathematically impossible since the number of returning Bush voters implied by the 43% weighting is 52.6 million (122.3 million votes were recorded in 2004). Bush only had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died, therefore the number of returning Bush voters must have been less than 48 million. Assuming 98% turnout, there were 47 million returning Bush voters, 5.6 million fewer than implied by the Final NEP.

 

Based on 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry wins by 10m votes with 53.2% - assuming equal 98% turnout of returning Bush and Gore voters. He wins by 7 million given 98/90% Bush/Gore turnout. Total votes cast in 2000 and 2004 are used to calculate returning and new voters.

 

Only 1368 respondents were asked their PAST 2000 vote but ALL exit poll respondents were asked whom the JUST voted for in 2004. The Kerry trend was consistent at the 7:33pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047) time lines. Kerry gained 1085 votes and Bush 1025 from 7:33pm to 12:22am. Third-parties declined by 90 due to the 4% to 3% change in share of the electorate.

 

False recall is disproved in a number of ways.

 

1. False recall is based on a subset (3168) of the Final NEP 13660 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2000. But all 13660 were asked whom they JUST voted for in 2004.

 

2. The Preliminary 12:22am NEP consisted of 3025 of the total 3168 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2000. The weighted result indicated that returning Bush voters comprised 41% (50.1m) of the electorate. The Final NEP "Voted in 2000" cross tab (as well as all other cross tabs) was forced to match the recorded vote. To do this required that 43% (52.6m) of the electorate be returning Bush voters. The change from 41% to 43% was based on just 143 additional respondents (from 3025 to 3168).

 

a) There was an impossible late switch in respondent totals. Between 7:33pm and 12:22am, the trend was consistent: Kerry gained 254 votes, Bush 239. Third-parties declined by 13. But between 12:22am and the Final, Kerry's total declined by 13, Bush gained 182 and third party lost 26.

 

b) It was also impossible that returning Bush voters would increase from 41% to 43% (122) and returning Gore voters would decline from 39% to 37% (8). Regardless, the Final 43/37% split was mathematically impossible. It implied there were 5.6 million more returning Bush voters than could have voted, assuming that 47 (98%) of the 48 million who were alive turned out.

 

c) The increase in Bush's share of new voters from 41% to 45% (+31) was impossible; there were just 24 additional new voters. Kerry lost 2.

 

d) The changes in the Gender demographic were impossible. The Kerry trend was consistent at the 11027 and 13047 respondent time lines. Kerry gained 1085 and Bush 1025. Third-parties declined by 90.

 

e) There was an impossible shift to Bush among the final 613 respondents (from 13047 to 13660). Kerry’s total declined by 99, while Bush gained 706. Third-parties gained 6. That could not have happened unless weights and vote shares were adjusted by a human. In other words, it could not have been the result of an actual sample.

 

3. False recall assumes that 43/37% was a sampled result. But we have just shown that it is mathematically impossible because a) it implies there were 5.6 million more returning Bush voters than could have voted in 2004 and b) the 41/39% split at 12:22am could not have changed to 43/37% in the Final with just 143 additional respondents in the "Voted 2000" category.

 

4. The exit pollsters claim that it is standard operating procedure to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote. The Final was forced to match the recorded vote by a) adjusting the returning Bush/Gore voter mix to an impossible 43/37% and b) simultaneously increasing the Bush shares of returning Bush, Gore and new voters to implausible levels using impossible adjustments.

 

5. Just reviewing the time line, it is obvious that the exit pollsters do in fact adjust weights and vote shares to force a  match the recorded vote. It's SOP. But it immediately invalidates the naysayer claim that the 43/37 split was due to Gore voter false recall. No, it was due to exit poll data manipulation.

 

6. Which is more believable: a) that the exit pollsters followed the standard procedure of forcing the poll to match the vote, or b) that at least 8% more returning Gore voters claimed they voted for Bush in 2000 than returning Bush voters claimed they voted for Gore?

 

7. As indicated above, there was a maximum number of returning Bush 2000 voters who could have voted in 2004: the ones who were still living. So the 43/37% split is not only impossible, it is also irrelevant. It doesn’t matter what the returning voters said regarding their 2000 vote. We already know the four-year voter mortality rate (5%) and maximum LIVING voter turnout (98%).

 

8.  False recall assumes that the returning voter mix is a sampled result. But the 4% increase in differential between returning Bush and Gore voters (from 2% to 6%) is impossible since the total number of respondents increased by just 143 (from 3025 to 3168).

 

9. The false recall claim is based on NES surveys of 500-600 respondents that indicate voters misstate past votes. But the reported deviations are based on the prior recorded vote – not the True Vote. There have been an average of 7 million net uncounted votes in each of the last eleven elections. The majority  (70-80%) were Democratic. In 2000, there were 5.4 million. When measured against the True Vote (based on total votes cast, reduced by mortality and voter turnout), the average deviations are near zero. Therefore, the NES respondents told the truth about their past vote.

 

10. The 2006 and 2008 Final National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote with impossible 49/43% and 46/37% returning Bush/Kerry voter percentages. The 2008 Final required 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. These anomalies are just additional proof that false recall is totally bogus – a final “Hail Mary” pass to divert, confuse and cover-up the truth. The exit pollsters just did what they are paid to do:

 

FORCE THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE EVEN IF THE CHANGES ARE IMPLAUSIBLE OR MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE.

 

Note:

All demographic category cross tabs required changes to the weights and/or the vote shares in order to force a match to the recorded vote. Categories that required changes to weights AND vote shares include: Party-ID, Voted 2000, Bush Approval, Region, Education, Income, Ideology and When Decided.

 

The following categories required changes ONLY to the vote shares: Gender, Race and Gender, Age, Military Service, Community Size,

 

The Final NEP vote shares and/or weights for Party-ID, Voted 2000, Bush Approval and When Decided do not agree with other data sources:

-Bush approval: was 48% based on the average of 11 final pre-election polls. With 48% Bush approval and preliminary vote shares, Kerry has a 53.6% total share.

-Party-ID: was 39/35% Dem/Rep based on other studies.

-Voted 2000: The 43/37% Bush/Gore weighting mix was mathematically impossible.

-When Decided: Kerry and Bush were tied in the polls one month prior to the election. The Final indicates that Bush led by 7 points.

 

 

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline                                                                       

 

Voted in 2000

 

7:33pm  2545 respondents                80.3% of 3168                                                   

                Voted in                                                 Respondents Share             Respondents Vote

MoE       2000        Mix         Total                       Kerry      Bush       Other      Kerry      Bush       Other

1.9%       DNV       17%        433          -               59%        39%        2%          255          169          9

1.1%       Gore        38%        967          -               91%        8%          1%          880          77            10

1.1%       Bush       41%        1043        -               9%          90%        1%          94            939          10

1.9%       Other      4%          102          -               65%        13%        22%        66            13            22

                                                                                                                                                               

1.9%       Total                       2545        -               50.90%   47.09%   2.01%     1295        1198        51

                                                                                                                                                               

12:22am                3025 respondents                95.5% of 3168                                                   

MoE       Voted     Mix         Total       Change  Kerry      Bush       Other      Kerry      Bush       Other

1.8%       DNV       17%        514          82            57%        41%        2%          293          211          10

1.0%       Gore        39%        1180        213          91%        8%          1%          1074        94            12

1.1%       Bush       41%        1240        197          10%        90%        0%          124          1116        0

1.7%       Other      3%          91            -11           64%        17%        19%        58            15            17

                                                                                                                                                               

1.8%       Total                       3025        480          51.20%   47.50%   1.30%     1549        1437        39

Change from 7:33pm            480                          52.79%   49.67%   -2.46%    254          239          -12

                                                                                                                                                               

Final 3168 respondents (forced to match the recorded vote)

                                Mix         Total       Change  Kerry      Bush       Other      Kerry      Bush       Other

                DNV       17%        539          24            54%        45%        1%          291          242          5

                Gore        37%        1172        -8             90%        10%        0%          1055        117          0

                Bush       43%        1362        122          9%          91%        0%          123          1240        0

                Other      3%          95            4              71%        21%        8%          67            20            8

                                                                                                                                                               

                Total                       3168        143          48.48%   51.11%   0.41%     1536        1619        13

 

Change from 12:22am          143                          -9.1%      127.5%   -18.4%    -13           182          -26

Change from 7:33pm            623                          38.6%     67.5%     -6.1%      240          421          -38

 

 

The Gender Demographic

 

7:33pm  11027 respondents (80.7%)

MoE       11027      Mix         Total       Change  Kerry      Bush       Other      Kerry      Bush       Other

0.93%     Female    54%        5955        -               53%        45%        2%          3156        2680        119

0.93%     Male       46%        5072        -               47%        51%        2%          2384        2587        101

                                                                                                                                                               

                Total                       11027      -               50.24%   47.76%   2.00%     5540        5266        221

                                                                                                                                                               

12:22am                13047 respondents (95.5%)                                                                                            

MoE       Gender   Mix         Total       Change  Kerry      Bush       Other      Kerry      Bush       Other

0.86%     Female    54%        7045        1091        54%        45%        1%          3805        3170        70

0.86%     Male       46%        6002        929          47%        52%        1%          2821        3121        60

                                                                                                                                                               

                Total                       13047      2020        50.78%   48.22%   1.00%     6626        6291        130

Change from 7:33pm            2020                        53.73%   50.73%   -4.46%    1086        1025        -90

                                                                                                                                                               

Final       13660 respondents

MoE       Gender   Mix         Total       Change  Kerry      Bush       Other      Kerry      Bush       Other

0.84%     Female    54%        7376        331          51%        48%        1%          3762        3541        74

0.83%     Male       46%        6284        282          44%        55%        1%          2765        3456        63

                                                                                                                                                               

                Total                       13660      613          47.78%   51.22%   1.0%       6527        6997        137

Change from 12:22am          613                          -16.1%    115.1%   1.0%       -99           706          7

Change from 7:33pm            2633                        37.5%     65.7%     -3.2%      987          1731        -84

 

Final National Exit Poll

Demographic Adjustments

* indicates change in weighting (mix)

 

Note:

All demographic category cross tabs required changes to the weights and/or the vote shares in order to force a match to the recorded vote.

Categories which required changes to weights AND vote shares include: Party-ID, Voted 2000, Bush Approval, Region, Education, Income, Ideology, When Decided.

 

The following categories required changes ONLY to the vote shares: Gender, Race and Gender, Age, Military Service, Community Size,

The Final NEP vote shares and/or weights for Party-ID, Voted 2000, Bush Approval and When Decided do not agree with other data sources:

-Bush approval: was 48% based on the average of 11 final pre-election polls. With 48% Bush approval and preliminary vote shares, Kerry has a 53.6% total share.

-Party-ID: was 39/35% Dem/Rep based on other studies.

-Voted 2000: The 43/37% Bush/Gore weighting mix was mathematically impossible.

-When Decided: Kerry and Bush were tied in the polls one month prior to the election. The Final indicates that Bush led by 7 points.

 

 

2004 National Exit Poll                                                                                             

 

Voted in 2000

 

 

7:33pm    2545 respondents 80.3%     of 3168                                                 

                Voted in                                 Respondents Share             Respondents Vote

MoE       2000        Mix         Total                       Kerry      Bush       Other      Kerry      Bush       Other

1.9%       DNV       17%        433          -               59%        39%        2%          255          169          9

1.1%       Gore        38%        967          -               91%        8%          1%          880          77            10

1.1%       Bush       41%        1043        -               9%          90%        1%          94            939          10

1.9%       Other      4%          102          -               65%        13%        22%        66            13            22

                                                                                                                                                               

1.9%       Total                       2545        -               50.90%   47.09%   2.01%     1295        1198        51

                                                                                                                                                               

12:22am  3025 respondents 95.5%     of 3168                                                 

MoE       Voted     Mix         Total       Change  Kerry      Bush       Other      Kerry      Bush       Other

1.8%       DNV       17%        514          82            57%        41%        2%          293          211          10

1.0%       Gore        39%        1180        213          91%        8%          1%          1074        94            12

1.1%       Bush       41%        1240        197          10%        90%        0%          124          1116        0

1.7%       Other      3%          91            -11           64%        17%        19%        58            15            17

                                                                                                                                                               

1.8%       Total                       3025        480          51.20%   47.50%   1.30%     1549        1437        39

Change from 7:33pm            480                          52.79%   49.67%   -2.46%    254          239          -12

                                                                                                                                                               

Final 3168 respondents (forced to match the recorded vote)

                                Mix         Total       Change  Kerry      Bush       Other      Kerry      Bush       Other

                DNV       17%        539          24            54%        45%        1%          291          242          5

                Gore        37%        1172        -8             90%        10%        0%          1055        117          0

                Bush       43%        1362        122          9%          91%        0%          123          1240        0

                Other      3%          95            4              71%        21%        8%          67            20            8

                                                                                                                                                               

                Total                       3168        143          48.48%   51.11%   0.41%     1536        1619        13

 

Change from 12:22am          143                          -9.1%      127.5%   -18.4%    -13           182          -26

Change from 7:33pm            623                          38.6%     67.5%     -6.1%      240          421          -38

 

 

The Gender Demographic

 

2004 National Exit Poll                                                                                                                        

7:33pm    11027 respondents (80.7%)

MoE       11027      Mix         Total       Change  Kerry      Bush       Other      Kerry      Bush       Other

0.93%     Female    54%        5955        -               53%        45%        2%          3156        2680        119

0.93%     Male       46%        5072        -               47%        51%        2%          2384        2587        101

                                                                                                                                                               

                Total                       11027      -               50.24%   47.76%   2.00%     5540        5266        221

                                                                                                                                                               

12:22am  13047 respondents (95.5%)                                                                                               

MoE       Gender   Mix         Total       Change  Kerry      Bush       Other      Kerry      Bush       Other

0.86%     Female    54%        7045        1091        54%        45%        1%          3805        3170        70

0.86%     Male       46%        6002        929          47%        52%        1%          2821        3121        60

                                                                                                                                                               

                Total                       13047      2020        50.78%   48.22%   1.00%     6626        6291        130

Change from 7:33pm            2020                        53.73%   50.73%   -4.46%    1086        1025        -90

                                                                                                                                                               

Final       13660 respondents

MoE       Gender   Mix         Total       Change  Kerry      Bush       Other      Kerry      Bush       Other

0.84%     Female    54%        7376        331          51%        48%        1%          3762        3541        74

0.83%     Male       46%        6284        282          44%        55%        1%          2765        3456        63

                                                                                                                                                               

                Total                       13660      613          47.78%   51.22%   1.0%       6527        6997        137

Change from 12:22am          613                          -16.1%    115.1%   1.0%       -99           706          7

Change from 7:33pm            2633                        37.5%     65.7%     -3.2%      987          1731        -84

 

Recursive True Vote Model

 

2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Method:  True Vote

 

95%

98%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Voted

 

Voter

2004

Vote Share

 

 

 

2000

2000

2000

2004

2004

 

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

 

-

-

-

-

 

22.6

17.9

57

41

2

-

Gore

50.5%

56.0

51.0

53.2

52.1

 

52.1

41.5

91

8

1

98%

Bush

45.8%

50.8

50.5

48.2

47.3

 

47.3

37.6

10

90

0

98%

Other

3.7%

4.1

4.0

3.8

3.8

 

3.8

3.0

64

17

19

98%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

110.8

105.4

105.3

103.2

 

125.7

Share

53.6

45.0

1.3

8.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

67.4

56.6

1.7

10.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Share

48.3

50.7

1.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

122.3

59.0

62.0

1.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                        PRELIMINARY                                                    FINAL                                                                 TRUE VOTE                    

                Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 respondents                       Nov. 3, 2:04pm, 13660 respondents                                                             

                                                                                                         Forced to match recorded vote                

                                                                                                                48.27%   50.73%   1.00%                                                                    

 

CATEGORY          Kerry      Bush       Other                                      Kerry      Bush       Other                                      Kerry      Bush       Other

Average                 50.83%   47.92%   1.25%                                     47.94%   51.11%   0.96%                                     53.41%   46.59%   1.03%

Total Votes           62.16       58.60       1.53                                         58.62       62.50       1.17                                         67.15       58.59       1.29

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Gender                   50.78%   48.22%   1.00%                                     47.78%   51.22%   1.00%                                     53.24%   45.76%   1.00%

Party-ID                 51.07%   47.85%   1.08%                                     47.89%   51.22%   0.89%                                     53.34%   45.66%   1.00%

Voted 2000            51.43%   47.60%   0.97%                                     48.48%   51.11%   0.41%                                     53.33%   45.35%   1.32%

Region                   50.53%   47.95%   1.52%                                     48.24%   51.08%   0.68%                                     53.43%   45.57%   1.00%

Education              50.43%   48.18%   1.39%                                     47.82%   51.24%   0.94%                                     53.53%   45.47%   1.00%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Race                       50.98%   47.61%   1.41%                                     47.81%   50.99%   1.20%                                     53.34%   45.66%   1.00%

Age                        50.26%   47.69%   2.05%                                     47.96%   51.28%   0.76%                                     53.36%   45.64%   1.00%

Income                   51.07%   47.75%   1.18%                                     48.13%   51.02%   0.85%                                     53.45%   45.55%   1.00%

Ideology                50.18%   48.60%   1.22%                                     47.25%   51.54%   1.21%                                     53.51%   45.49%   1.00%

Religion                 50.78%   48.01%   1.21%                                     47.99%   50.94%   1.07%                                     53.39%   45.61%   1.00%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Military                  51.20%   47.62%   1.18%                                     48.38%   50.44%   1.18%                                     53.56%   45.44%   1.00%

Decided                 51.23%   47.93%   0.84%                                     47.50%   51.22%   1.28%                                     53.40%   45.60%   1.00%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

                               

2pty vote 97.5% Confidence                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Max                        51.62%   48.51%   1.88%                                     48.62%   51.63%   1.46%                                     53.59%   46.69%   1.09%

Min                         50.04%   47.33%   0.63%                                     47.25%   50.59%   0.45%                                     53.22%   46.49%   0.97%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

                Weight   Kerry      Bush       Other                      Weight   Kerry      Bush       Other                      Weight   Kerry      Bush       Other

 

GENDER                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Male       46.0%     47%        52%        1%                          46%        44%        55%        1%                          46.0%     50.0%     49.0%     1.0%

Fem         54.0%     54%        45%        1%                          54%        51%        48%        1%                          54.0%     56.0%     43.0%     1.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Share      100%      50.78%   48.22%   1.00%                     100%      47.78%   51.22%   1.00%                     100%      53.24%   45.76%   1.00%

Votes      122.30     62.10       58.97       1.22                         122.30     58.43       62.64       1.22                         125.74     66.94       57.54       1.26

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

PARTY ID                                                                            

 

Dem        38%        91%        9%          0%                          37%*      89%        11%        0%                          38%        92%        7%          1%

Rep         35%        7%          93%        0%                          37%*      6%          93%        1%                          35%        7%          92%        1%

Ind          27%        52%        44%        4%                          26%        49%        49%        2%                          27%        59%        40%        1%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Share      100%      51.07%   47.85%   1.08%                     100%      47.89%   51.22%   0.89%                     100%      53.34%   45.66%   1.00%

Votes      122.30     62.46       58.52       1.32                         122.30     58.57       62.64       1.09                         125.74     67.07       57.41       1.26

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

VOTED IN 2000                                                                   

 

New        11%        55%        43%        2%                                                                                                                                                         

DNV       6%          61%        37%        2%                          17%        54%        45%        1%                          17%        60%        38%        2%

Gore        39%        91%        8%          1%                          37%*      90%        10%        0%                          41%        91%        8%          1%

Bush       41%        10%        90%        0%                          43%*      9%          91%        0%                          39%        10%        90%        0%

Other      3%          71%        21%        8%                          3%          71%        21%        8%                          3%          64%        17%        19%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Share      100%      51.43%   47.60%   0.97%                     100%      48.48%   51.11%   0.41%                     100%      53.33%   45.35%   1.32%

Votes      122.30     62.90       58.21       1.19                         122.30     59.29       62.50       0.50                         125.74     67.06       57.02       1.66

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

REGION                                                                                                                

 

East        22%        58%        41%        1%                          22%        56%        43%        1%                          22%        61%        38%        1%

Midw      26%        50%        49%        1%                          26%        48%        51%        1%                          26%        53%        46%        1%

South     31%        44%        54%        2%                          32%*      42%        58%        0%                          31%        46%        53%        1%

West      21%        53%        45%        2%                          20%*      50%        49%        1%                          21%        57%        42%        1%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Share      100%      50.53%   47.95%   1.52%                     100%      48.24%   51.08%   0.68%                     100%      53.43%   45.57%   1.00%

Votes      122.30     61.80       58.64       1.86                         122.30     59.00       62.47       0.83                         125.74     67.18       57.30       1.26

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

EDUCATION                                                                       

                Weight   Kerry      Bush       Other                      Weight   Kerry      Bush       Other                      Weight   Kerry      Bush       Other

 

oHS        4%          53%        46%        1%                          4%          50%        49%        1%                          4%          53%        46%        1%

HSG        22%        50%        48%        2%                          22%        47%        52%        1%                          22%        54%        45%        1%

College   31%        48%        51%        1%                          32%*      46%        54%        0%                          31%        51%        48%        1%

ColGrd    26%        49%        50%        1%                          26%        46%        52%        2%                          26%        52%        47%        1%

PostGrd  17%        57%        41%        2%                          16%*      55%        44%        1%                          17%        60%        39%        1%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Share      100%      50.43%   48.18%   1.39%                     100%      47.82%   51.24%   0.94%                     100%      53.53%   45.47%   1.00%

Votes      122.30     61.67       58.92       1.70                         122.30     58.48       62.66       1.15                         125.74     67.31       57.17       1.26

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

RACE AND GENDER                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

WMale   36%        40%        59%        1%                          36%        37%        62%        1%                          36%        43%        56%        1%

WFem    41%        47%        51%        2%                          41%        44%        55%        1%                          41%        49%        50%        1%

NwMale 10%        73%        26%        1%                          10%        67%        30%        3%                          10%        75%        24%        1%

NwFem   13%        77%        22%        1%                          13%        75%        24%        1%                          13%        79%        20%        1%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Share      100%      50.98%   47.61%   1.41%                     100%      47.81%   50.99%   1.20%                     100%      53.34%   45.66%   1.00%

Votes      122.30     62.35       58.22       1.72                         122.30     58.47       62.36       1.47                         125.74     67.07       57.41       1.26

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

AGE                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

18-29       17%        56%        42%        2%                          17%        54%        45%        1%                          17%        61%        38%        1%

30-44       29%        48%        49%        3%                          29%        46%        53%        1%                          29%        51%        48%        1%

45-59       30%        51%        47%        2%                          30%        48%        51%        1%                          30%        54%        45%        1%

60+          24%        48%        51%        1%                          24%        46%        54%        0%                          24%        50%        49%        1%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Share      100%      50.26%   47.69%   2.05%                     100%      47.96%   51.28%   0.76%                     100%      53.36%   45.64%   1.00%

Votes      122.30     61.47       58.32       2.51                         122.30     58.65       62.71       0.93                         125.74     67.09       57.39       1.26

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

INCOME                                                                                               

0-15K      9%          65%        34%        1%                          8%*        63%        36%        1%                          9%          69%        30%        1%

15-30       15%        60%        39%        1%                          15%        57%        42%        1%                          15%        63%        36%        1%

30-50       22%        53%        46%        1%                          22%        50%        49%        1%                          22%        55%        44%        1%

50-75       23%        46%        53%        1%                          23%        43%        56%        1%                          23%        48%        51%        1%

75-100     13%        48%        51%        1%                          14%*      45%        55%        0%                          13%        49%        50%        1%

100-150   11%        43%        55%        2%                          11%        42%        57%        1%                          11%        48%        51%        1%

150-200   4%          43%        55%        2%                          4%          42%        58%        0%                          4%          45%        54%        1%

200+        3%          43%        55%        2%                          3%          35%        63%        2%                          3%          40%        59%        1%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Share      100%      51.07%   47.75%   1.18%                     100%      48.13%   51.02%   0.85%                     100%      53.45%   45.55%   1.00%

Votes      122.30     62.46       58.40       1.44                         122.30     58.86       62.39       1.04                         125.74     67.21       57.27       1.26

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

IDEOLOGY                                                                                                           

 

       Weight            Kerry      Bush       Other                      Weight   Kerry      Bush       Other                      Weight   Kerry      Bush       Other

 

Lib          22%        86%        12%        2%                          21%*      85%        13%        2%                          22%        92%        7%          1%

Mod       45%        57%        42%        1%                          45%        54%        45%        1%                          45%        60%        39%        1%

Con         33%        17%        82%        1%                          34%*      15%        84%        1%                          33%        19%        80%        1%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Share      100%      50.18%   48.60%   1.22%                     100%      47.25%   51.54%   1.21%                     100%      53.51%   45.49%   1.00%

Votes      122.30     61.37       59.44       1.49                         122.30     57.78       63.03       1.48                         125.74     67.28       57.20       1.26

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

RELIGION                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Prot         53%        43%        56%        1%                          53%        40%        59%        1%                          53%        45%        54%        1%

Cath        27%        50%        49%        1%                          27%        47%        52%        1%                          27%        53%        46%        1%

Jewish    3%          78%        22%        0%                          3%          74%        25%        1%                          3%          79%        20%        1%

Other      7%          75%        22%        3%                          7%          74%        24%        2%                          7%          78%        21%        1%

None      10%        69%        29%        2%                          10%        67%        32%        1%                          10%        74%        25%        1%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Share      100%      50.78%   48.01%   1.21%                     100%      47.99%   50.94%   1.07%                     100%      53.39%   45.61%   1.00%

Votes      122.30     62.10       58.71       1.48                         122.30     58.69       62.30       1.31                         125.74     67.13       57.35       1.26

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

MILITARY                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Yes         18%        43%        55%        2%                          18%        41%        57%        2%                          18%        47%        52%        1%

No           82%        53%        46%        1%                          82%        50%        49%        1%                          82%        55%        44%        1%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Share      100%      51.20%   47.62%   1.18%                     100%      48.38%   50.44%   1.18%                     100%      53.56%   45.44%   1.00%

Votes      122.30     62.62       58.24       1.44                         122.30     59.17       61.69       1.44                         125.74     67.35       57.14       1.26

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

WHEN DECIDED                                                                

 

                Weight   Kerry      Bush       Other                      Weight   Kerry      Bush       Other                      Weight   Kerry      Bush       Other

                               

Today    6%          53%        40%        7%                          5%*        52%        45%        3%                          6%          75%        24%        1%

3days     3%          53%        41%        6%                          4%*        55%        42%        3%                          3%          72%        27%        1%

7days     2%          48%        50%        2%                          2%          48%        51%        1%                          2%          57%        42%        1%

30days   10%        60%        38%        2%                          10%        54%        44%        2%                          10%        61%        38%        1%

Over30   79%        50%        50%        0%                          79%        46%        53%        1%                          79%        50%        49%        1%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Share      100%      51.23%   47.93%   0.84%                     100%      47.50%   51.22%   1.28%                     100%      53.40%   45.60%   1.00%

Votes      122.30     62.65       58.62       1.03                         122.30     58.09       62.64       1.57                         125.74     67.15       57.34       1.26

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

COMMUNITY                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

BigCity   13%        64%        36%        0%                          13%        61%        39%        0%                          13%        72%        27%        1%

SmalCty 18%        52%        46%        2%                          18%        49%        49%        2%                          18%        56%        43%        1%

Suburbs 45%        49%        49%        2%                          45%        47%        52%        1%                          45%        51%        48%        1%

SmalTwn 8%         51%        47%        2%                          8%          48%        50%        2%                          8%          52%        47%        1%

Rural       16%        42%        57%        1%                          16%        40%        59%        1%                          16%        43%        56%        1%

                                                               

Share      100%      50.53%   47.89%   1.58%                     100%      48.14%   50.73%   1.13%                     100%      53.43%   45.57%   1.00%

Votes      122.30     61.80       58.57       1.93                         122.30     58.87       62.04       1.38                         125.74     67.18       57.30       1.26

 

COMMUNITY                                                                                                                                     

                                                               

Urban     31%        59%        40%        1%                          31%        54%        45%        1%                          31%        62%        37%        1%

Suburbs 45%        50%        49%        1%                          45%        47%        52%        1%                          45%        51%        48%        1%

Sm/Rural24%        45%        54%        1%                          24%        42%        57%        1%                          24%        47%        52%        1%

                                                                                                                                                               

Share      100%      51.59%   47.41%   1.00%                     100%      47.97%   51.03%   1.00%                     100%      53.45%   45.55%   1.00%

Votes      122.30     63.09       57.98       1.22                         122.30     58.66       62.41       1.22                         125.74     67.21       57.27       1.26

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

BUSH APPROVAL                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Approve 51%       11%        88%        1%                          53%*      9%          90%        1%                          48%        11%        88%        1%

Dissapr  49%       93%        5%          2%                          47%*      93%        6%          1%                          52%        93%        5%          2%

 

Share     100%       51.18%   47.33%   1.49%                     100%      48.48%   50.52%   1.00%                     100%      53.64%   44.84%   1.52%

Votes      122.3       62.59       57.88       1.82                         122.3       59.29       61.78       1.22                         125.74     67.45       56.38       1.91