Florida 2000 and 2004 County Recorded Votes, 2004 State Exit Poll and True Vote Analysis

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

Consider the Florida 2000 fiasco. Bush “won” by 537 “official” votes before the Supreme Court aborted the recount – and 175,010 spoiled (under-punched and over-punched) ballots were never counted. Since approximately 75% were intended for Gore, he probably won Florida by more than 80,000 votes. And don’t forget the thousands of Butterfly ballots which fooled Gore voters into voting for Buchanan.

 

Approximately 54% of the spoiled ballots were in black districts where Gore won 91% of the vote. Assuming the other 46% were evenly split between Gore and Bush, then 126,000 (72%) of the spoiled ballots were Gore votes. And the infamous “Butterfly” ballot caused several thousand Gore voters to mistakenly vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County.  Buchanan's vote share was 0.80% in Palm Beach and just 0.25% elsewhere. 

 

Dan Rather's expose on voting machines in Florida 2000 showed that poor-quality paper used in punch card machines was a major cause of ballot spoilage in highly Democratic precincts. Faulty paper had never before been considered a factor in mechanical voting failure.  The spoiled punched cards in Florida 2000 were just the tip of the national iceberg.

 

In 2004, Kerry had a 100,000 built-in vote advantage going into the election. He could count on a solid majority (70-80%) of 90,000 returning Nader voters. No more hanging chads from spoiled punch cards; Touch screens and Optical scanners would be used for input to the central tabulators.  Furthermore, the Democrats had a remarkable voter registration and GOTV effort. In the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration was 60 percent higher than in 2000, while it was just 12 percent higher in the heaviest Republican areas. Of course, they had to overcome Bush’s popularity; he had a whopping 48.5% approval rating on Election Day.

 

The Florida pre-election polls were trending to Kerry. After allocating the undecided vote, Kerry led the final 10-poll average by 51.1-48.8%.  Kerry was on track to a 200,000 vote win. Bush “won” the official vote by 52.1-47.1%, a 381,000 margin. Kerry won TS counties by 51.3-47.8%, but Bush won OS counties by a whopping 57.0-42.3%. Kerry’s low vote shares in the three most heavily populated Democratic TS counties (Palm Beach, Broward, Dade) are highly suspect. The TS county vote share matched the exit poll to within 1%, but the OS county share deviated by 9% in favor of Bush. The probability was virtually zero that Kerry's TS vote share would exceed his state-wide share by 4.2% and his OS county share by 9%.

 

Consider Florida’s implausible vote count by machine type and 2004 Voter Registration. The Democrats had a 41.6- 36.1% registration advantage in Touch Screen (TS) counties and a 41.1-39.5% edge in Optical Scan (OS) counties.  Bush’s vote share was 131% of his registration share in TS (DRE) counties and 145% in Optiscan counties. For Kerry, the corresponding percentages were 125% and 102%.  Was the vote suppressed in TS (Democratic) counties and padded in Optiscan (Republican) counties? Since Bush was first selected in 2000, the Florida Republican vote share to registration share ratio has increased sharply compared to the Democrats.

 

If the pundits really wanted to, they could analyze Florida. But they won't do it. They would find that Kerry did even better than Gore. Kerry won Florida by approximately 380,000. According to the Census, 238,000 more ballots were cast in Florida than recorded. In other words, there were 238k net stuffed ballots. There could have been 338k stuffed and 100k uncounted - or 438k and 200k. Without a full audit (recount), it is impossible to know the actual figures. But we can approximate the True Vote based on a feasible returning voter mix and National Exit Poll vote shares adjusted for Florida's state/national share ratio. Knowing the True vote, we can determine the approximate number of votes switched from Kerry to Bush in Cyberspace.

 

Bush's vote to registration ratio was 145% in Optiscan counties, an indication of where the ballots were stuffed. Kerry's ratio was 102%. The Republican vote to registration ratio increased 31.5% from 1996 to 2004. The Democratic increase was 13.8%.

 

In DRE counties, Democratic registration exceeded GOP by 2.9% in 1996 and 5.6% in 2004. In Optiscan counties, Democrats led by 13.2% in 1996 and 1.7% in 2004. But in OS counties, the Republican registration share increased by just 1.7%. Where did the Republicans gain votes in 2004?

 

 

2004 Florida Exit Poll

 

Method                  Kerry      Bush

WPE                        51.0%      48.2%   (unadjusted 7.8% EPE)

Best GEO                49.2         50.3   

Composite               49.3         50.1

Best SPM                 48.6         51.0   

 

Recorded                47.1         52.1

 

Final Florida Exit Poll

 

Party ID        

                                Mix           Vote        Kerry       Bush        Other       Kerry       Bush        Other

Democratic              38%         2.89         86%         13%         1%           2.49         0.38         0.03

Republican              39%         2.97         7%           92%         1%           0.21         2.73         0.03

Independent            23%         1.75         60%         38%         2%           1.05         0.67         0.04

 

Total                       7.61         7.61         49.2%      49.6%      1.2%        3.74         3.77         0.09

 

Recorded Vote by Machine Type

Machine                   Mix           Vote        Kerry       Bush        Other       Kerry       Bush        Other

DRE                         51.3%      3.90         51.3%      47.8%      0.9%        2.00         1.86         0.04

OS                           48.7%      3.71         42.3%      57.0%      0.7%        1.57         2.11         0.03

 

Total                       100%       7.61         47.1%      52.1%      0.8%        3.57         3.98         0.06

 

Exit Poll Shares by Voter Registration

 

Registration          Mix           Votes      Kerry       Bush        Other       Kerry       Bush        Other

Dem                         41.4%      3.15         86%         13%         1%           2.71         0.41         0.03

Rep                          37.8%      2.88         7%           92%         1%           0.20         2.65         0.03

Ind                           20.9%      1.59         60%         38%         2%           0.95         0.60         0.03

 

Vote                       7.61         7.61         50.7%      48.1%      1.2%        3.86         3.66         0.09

 

 

 

Implausible Required Bush Shares of the Democratic Vote

 

Statewide: 21%

All                            Mix           Votes      Kerry       Bush        Other       Kerry       Bush        Other

Dem                         41.4%      3.15         77.7%      21.3%      1.0%        2.45         0.67         0.03

Rep                          37.8%      2.88         5.5%        93.5%      1.0%        0.16         2.69         0.03

Ind                           20.9%      1.59         60.0%      38.0%      2.0%        0.95         0.60         0.03

 

Total                       100%       7.61         46.7%      52.1%      1.2%        3.56         3.96         0.09

 

DRE Counties: 15%

Dem                         41.6%      1.62         84%         15%         1%           1.36         0.24         0.02

Rep                          36.1%      1.41         6%           93%         1%           0.08         1.31         0.01

Ind                           22.3%      0.87         60%         38%         2%           0.52         0.33         0.02

 

Total                       100%       3.90         50.5%      48.3%      1.2%        1.97         1.89         0.05

 

Optical Scan counties: 28%

 

Dem                         41.2%      1.53         71%         28%         1%           1.08         0.43         0.02

Rep                          39.5%      1.47         5%           94%         1%           0.07         1.38         0.01

Ind                           19.3%      0.72         60%         38%         2%           0.43         0.27         0.01

Total                       100%       3.71         42.8%      56.0%      1.2%        1.59         2.08         0.04

 


Florida Preliminary and Final Exit Poll

 

Bush Approval (53%)

(forced to match the recorded vote)

 

Preliminary

Approval                 Mix           Kerry       Bush        Other

Strong                     35            4              96            0

Approve                  18            17            82            1

Disapprove              12            84            13            3

Strong                     35            98            1              1

 

Total                       100          48.8         50.3         0.9

 

Final

Strong                     33            5              94            1

Approve                  20            15            83            2

Disapprove              12            80            18            2

Strong                     35            97            2              1

 

Total                       100          48.2         50.5         1.3

 

 

Actual Approval (48.5%)

 

Preliminary

Approval                 Mix           Kerry       Bush        Other

Strong                     30.5         4              96            0

Approve                  18            17            82            1

Disapprove              14            84            13            3

Strong                     37.5         98            1              1

 

Total                       100          52.8         46.2         1.0

 

Final

Strong                     30.5         5              94            1             

Approve                  18            15            83            2             

Disapprove              14            80            18            2             

Strong                     37.5         97            2              1             

 

Total                       100          51.8         46.9         1.3          

 

When Decided

Final (forced to match recorded vote)

 

Decided                   Mix           Kerry       Bush        Other

3 days                     8%           53%         45%         2%

Week                      3              70            27            3

Month                      12            61            38            1

Before                    77            46            54            0 (Pre-election polls indicated 50/50)

 

Total                       100          49.1         50.6         0.4

 

True Vote (based on pre-election polls)

3 days                     8%           53%         45%         2%

Week                      3              70            27            3

Month                      12            61            38            1

Before                    77            50            50            0 (Pre-election polls)

 

Total                       100          52.2         47.5         0.4

 

 

 

Florida 2004 True Vote

 

2000

Method:

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout in 2004

      Unctd  stuffed

 

Cast

Recorded

Unctd

Alive

Cast

Recorded

Unctd

Died

Gore

Bush

Gore

Bush

 

110.8

105.4

5.4

105.3

125.7

122.3

3.4

6.1

98%

98%

75%

24%

 

-

95.1%

4.9%

95.0%

-

97.3%

2.7%

5.0%

-

-

0%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FL

 

Vote (mil)

 

 

Vote Share (%)

Vote (mil)

 

MoE

2000

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Pct

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

1.7%

DNV

 -

 -

 -

1.64

22.3

55.9

42.1

2.0

0.92

0.69

0.03

1.0%

Gore

3.02

2.91

2.87

2.82

38.2

91.0

9.0

0.0

2.56

0.25

0.00

1.0%

Bush

2.99

2.91

2.84

2.78

37.7

10.0

90.0

0.0

0.28

2.50

0.00

1.7%

Other

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.13

1.8

62.8

14.8

22.4

0.08

0.02

0.03

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exit

6.15

5.96

5.85

7.37

True

52.12

47.03

0.85

3.84

3.47

0.06

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

State Model

52.22

46.96

0.81

3.85

3.46

0.06

 

 

 

 

 

Electoral Vote

357

181

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

47.09

52.10

0.81

3.58

3.96

0.06

 

Recorded

48.84

48.85

2.32

True - Rec

5.03

(5.06)

0.04

0.26

(0.50)

0.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

49.58

45.75

2.32

Exit Poll

50.99

48.20

0.81

3.88

3.67

0.06

 

Exit Poll

49.14

48.55

4.68

True - Exit

1.13

(1.16)

0.04

(0.04)

(0.20)

0.00


 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

 

Bush

 

Gore voter turnout

 

 

Share of

Kerry Share of Gore

 

 

turnout

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

 

Bush

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

90%

52.4

52.7

53.0

53.2

53.5

 

12%

52.1

52.5

52.9

53.3

53.6

 

92%

52.1

52.4

52.6

52.9

53.2

 

11%

51.7

52.1

52.5

52.9

53.3

 

94%

51.7

52.0

52.3

52.5

52.8

 

10%

51.4

51.7

52.1

52.5

52.9

 

96%

51.4

51.6

51.9

52.2

52.5

 

9%

51.0

51.4

51.7

52.1

52.5

 

98%

51.0

51.3

51.6

51.8

52.1

 

8%

50.6

51.0

51.4

51.7

52.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin  (mil.)

 

 

 

 

 

Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

90%

0.43

0.47

0.51

0.55

0.58

 

12%

0.37

0.43

0.49

0.54

0.60

 

92%

0.38

0.41

0.45

0.49

0.53

 

11%

0.32

0.37

0.43

0.49

0.54

 

94%

0.32

0.36

0.40

0.44

0.48

 

10%

0.26

0.32

0.37

0.43

0.49

 

96%

0.27

0.31

0.35

0.39

0.43

 

9%

0.21

0.26

0.32

0.38

0.43

 

98%

0.22

0.26

0.30

0.34

0.37

 

8%

0.15

0.21

0.26

0.32

0.38

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electoral Vote

 

 

 

 

 

Electoral Vote

 

 

90%

370

370

370

370

370

 

12%

370

370

370

370

370

 

92%

364

370

370

370

370

 

11%

340

370

370

370

370

 

94%

340

340

370

370

370

 

10%

340

340

357

370

370

 

96%

340

340

340

370

370

 

9%

325

340

340

357

370

 

98%

325

340

340

340

357

 

8%

318

325

340

340

346

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MoE

1.04%

0.94%

0.82%

0.68%

0.49%

 

MoE

1.08%

1.04%

0.99%

0.94%

0.88%

 

 

County Votes

 

 

 2000

       Votes  

 

 

 

 

 

2004

     Votes

 

 

 

 

 

 

   Precincts

        Total

       GORE

      BUSH

       NADER

GORE

BUSH

NADER

       Total

    KERRY

    BUSH

    OTHER

KERRY

BUSH

OTHER

DRE

3078

3078

1658

1376

44.4

53.9%

44.7%

1.44%

3835

1999

1819

17.4

52.1%

47.4%

0.45%

OPTISCAN

2806

2831

1253

1535

43.6

44.2%

54.2%

1.54%

3728

1575

2137

15.5

42.3%

57.3%

0.42%

 

Election Day   

5884

5909

2910

2910

88.0

49.3%

49.3%

1.49%

7563

3575

3956

32.9

47.3%

52.3%

0.43%

Total Recorded   

 

5963

2912

2913

97.0

48.8%

48.8%

1.40%

7610

3584

3965

62

47.1%

52.1%

0.81%

 

 

 

 

 

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DRE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Broward

618

571

387

177

7.1

68%

31%

1.2%

700

452

244

3.8

65%

35%

0.5%

 Charlotte

63

67

30

35

1.5

45%

53%

2.2%

79

34

44

0.6

43%

56%

0.7%

 Collier

96

92

30

60

1.4

33%

66%

1.5%

128

44

83

0.6

34%

65%

0.5%

 Dade

614

624

329

290

5.4

53%

46%

0.9%

767

406

359

2.0

53%

47%

0.3%

 

 Hillsborough

320

358

170

181

7.5

47%

51%

2.1%

460

213

245

1.9

46%

53%

0.4%

 Indian River

41

49

20

29

1.0

40%

58%

1.9%

61

24

37

0.3

39%

60%

0.5%

 Lafayette

5

2

1

2

0.0

32%

67%

1.0%

3

1

2

0.0

25%

74%

0.3%

 Lake

86

88

37

50

1.5

42%

57%

1.7%

123

48

74

0.7

39%

60%

0.5%

 Martin

40

62

27

34

1.1

43%

55%

1.8%

72

30

41

0.4

42%

57%

0.6%

 

 Nassau

21

23

7

16

0.3

29%

70%

1.1%

32

9

24

0.2

26%

73%

0.6%

 Palm Beach

531

423

270

153

0.0

64%

36%

0.0%

541

328

212

1.6

61%

39%

0.3%

 Pasco

132

142

70

69

3.4

49%

48%

2.4%

189

85

103

1.4

45%

54%

0.8%

 Pinellas

345

395

201

185

10.0

51%

47%

2.5%

453

225

226

2.4

50%

50%

0.5%

 Sarasota

142

160

73

83

4.1

46%

52%

2.5%

194

88

105

1.3

45%

54%

0.6%

 Sumter

24

22

10

12

0.3

44%

55%

1.4%

32

12

20

0.2

37%

63%

0.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OPTISCAN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Alachua

53

85

47

34

3.2

56%

40%

3.8%

111

62

48

0.6

56%

43%

0.5%

 Baker

8

8

2

6

0.1

30%

70%

0.7%

10

2

8

0.0

22%

78%

0.2%

 Bay

47

58

19

39

0.8

32%

66%

1.4%

75

21

53

0.4

28%

71%

0.5%

 Bradford

21

9

3

5

0.1

36%

63%

1.0%

11

3

8

0.0

30%

70%

0.3%

 Brevard

177

217

97

115

4.5

45%

53%

2.1%

264

110

153

1.2

42%

58%

0.5%

 

 Calhoun

13

5

2

3

0.0

43%

57%

0.8%

6

2

4

0.0

36%

64%

0.6%

 Citrus

35

57

26

30

1.4

45%

53%

2.4%

69

29

39

0.5

42%

57%

0.7%

 Clay

51

57

15

42

0.6

26%

73%

1.0%

81

19

62

0.3

23%

76%

0.3%

 Columbia

31

18

7

11

0.3

39%

60%

1.4%

25

8

17

0.1

32%

67%

0.4%

 De Soto

15

8

3

4

0.2

43%

55%

2.0%

9

4

6

0.0

41%

58%

0.5%

 

 Dixie

11

5

2

3

0.1

40%

59%

1.6%

6

2

4

0.0

31%

69%

0.5%

 Duval

268

263

108

152

2.8

41%

58%

1.0%

379

158

219

1.2

42%

58%

0.3%

 Escambia

108

116

41

73

1.7

35%

63%

1.5%

142

48

93

0.5

34%

66%

0.4%

 Flagler

27

27

14

13

0.4

52%

47%

1.6%

38

19

20

0.2

48%

51%

0.5%

 Franklin

8

5

2

2

0.1

45%

54%

1.9%

6

2

3

0.0

41%

59%

0.6%

 

Gadsden

16

15

10

5

0.1

66%

33%

0.9%

21

15

6

0.1

70%

30%

0.3%

Gilchrist

10

5

2

3

0.1

36%

62%

1.8%

7

2

5

0.0

29%

71%

0.5%

Glades

13

3

1

2

0.1

43%

55%

1.7%

4

2

2

0.0

41%

58%

0.4%

Gulf

14

6

2

4

0.1

40%

59%

1.4%

7

2

5

0.0

33%

66%

0.6%

Hamilton

8

4

2

2

0.0

44%

55%

0.9%

5

2

3

0.0

45%

55%

0.3%

 

 Hardee

12

6

2

4

0.1

38%

61%

1.2%

7

2

5

0.0

30%

70%

0.5%

 Hendry

22

8

3

5

0.1

40%

59%

1.3%

10

4

6

0.0

41%

59%

0.2%

 Hernando

51

65

33

31

1.5

50%

47%

2.3%

79

37

42

0.5

46%

53%

0.6%

 Highlands

28

35

14

20

0.5

41%

58%

1.6%

41

15

26

0.2

37%

62%

0.5%

 Holmes

16

7

2

5

0.1

30%

69%

1.3%

8

2

6

0.0

22%

78%

0.5%

 

 Jackson

27

16

7

9

0.1

43%

57%

0.9%

20

8

12

0.1

38%

61%

0.4%

 Jefferson

13

6

3

2

0.1

54%

44%

1.4%

7

4

3

0.0

55%

44%

0.4%

 Lee

150

183

74

106

3.6

40%

58%

2.0%

240

94

144

1.4

39%

60%

0.6%

 Leon

95

102

61

39

1.9

60%

38%

1.9%

136

84

52

0.5

62%

38%

0.4%

 Levy

21

13

5

7

0.3

43%

55%

2.3%

17

6

10

0.1

37%

63%

0.6%

 

 Liberty

8

2

1

1

0.0

43%

56%

0.8%

3

1

2

0.0

36%

64%

0.5%

 Madison

11

6

3

3

0.1

49%

50%

0.9%

8

4

4

0.0

49%

51%

0.5%

 Manatee

135

110

49

58

2.5

45%

53%

2.3%

143

61

81

0.7

43%

57%

0.5%

 Marion

96

102

45

55

1.8

44%

54%

1.8%

139

57

81

0.6

41%

58%

0.5%

 Monroe

33

34

16

16

1.1

49%

48%

3.2%

39

20

19

0.3

50%

49%

0.7%

 

 Okaloosa

48

70

17

52

1.0

24%

74%

1.4%

89

19

70

0.4

22%

78%

0.4%

 Okeechobee

18

10

5

5

0.1

47%

52%

1.3%

12

5

7

0.0

42%

57%

0.3%

 Orange

232

275

140

135

0.0

51%

49%

0.0%

387

193

192

1.1

50%

50%

0.3%

 Osceola

66

55

28

26

0.7

51%

48%

1.3%

82

39

43

0.3

47%

53%

0.3%

 Polk

163

168

75

90

2.1

45%

54%

1.2%

210

86

124

0.8

41%

59%

0.4%

 

 Putnam

50

26

12

13

0.4

47%

52%

1.5%

31

12

18

0.1

40%

59%

0.4%

 St. Johns

57

60

20

40

1.2

32%

66%

2.0%

86

26

59

0.4

31%

69%

0.5%

 St. Lucie

78

78

42

35

1.4

54%

45%

1.8%

100

52

48

0.4

52%

48%

0.4%

 Santa Rosa

36

50

13

36

0.7

26%

73%

1.5%

67

15

52

0.3

22%

78%

0.4%

 Seminole

133

137

59

76

1.9

43%

55%

1.4%

186

77

108

0.6

41%

58%

0.3%

 

 Suwannee

16

12

4

8

0.2

33%

65%

1.5%

16

5

11

0.1

29%

71%

0.5%

 Taylor

14

7

3

4

0.1

39%

60%

0.9%

9

3

5

0.0

36%

64%

0.5%

 Union

11

4

1

2

0.0

37%

62%

0.9%

5

1

3

0.0

27%

73%

0.3%

 Volusia

172

183

97

82

2.9

53%

45%

1.6%

228

115

112

0.9

51%

49%

0.4%

 Wakulla

12

8

4

5

0.1

45%

53%

1.8%

12

5

7

0.0

42%

58%

0.4%

 

 Walton

33

18

6

12

0.3

31%

67%

1.5%

24

6

18

0.1

26%

73%

0.5%

 Washington

15

8

3

5

0.1

35%

63%

1.2%

10

3

7

0.1

28%

71%

0.5%

 

 

 

 

       increase from 2000

 

 

 

Bush net increase

 

 

     KERRY

BUSH

OTHER

KERRY

BUSH

Votes

    Margin

          Incid

DRE

341.8

443.1

-27.0

20.6%

32.2%

101.3

4.5%

231

OPTISCAN

322.5

602.0

-28.1

25.7%

39.2%

279.5

5.1%

35

TOTAL   

664.3

1,045.2

-55.1

18.6%

26.4%

380.8

5.0%

256

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DRE

                      Vote Chg from 2000

  Pct Chg from 2000

     Bush Net Increase

1980

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Broward

65.8

66.4

-3.3

17%

37%

0.6

7%

56

 Charlotte

4.6

9.0

-0.9

15%

25%

4.4

4%

0

 Collier

13.8

23.1

-0.8

46%

38%

9.3

-2%

0

 Dade

77.3

69.1

-3.4

24%

24%

(8.2)

0%

54

 Hillsborough

43.9

63.8

-5.5

26%

35%

20.0

4%

21

 

 Indian River

4.2

8.2

-0.7

21%

29%

4.1

3%

0

 Lafayette

0.1

0.8

0.0

7%

47%

0.7

13%

0

 Lake

11.6

24.4

-0.8

32%

49%

12.7

6%

3

 Martin

3.6

7.4

-0.7

13%

22%

3.8

4%

1

 Nassau

1.7

7.5

-0.1

24%

46%

5.8

7%

0

 

 Palm Beach

58.0

58.9

1.6

21%

39%

1.0

6%

88

 Pasco

15.2

34.6

-2.0

22%

50%

19.4

10%

0

 Pinellas

24.7

40.8

-7.6

12%

22%

16.1

4%

6

 Sarasota

15.5

21.5

-2.8

21%

26%

6.0

2%

2

 Sumter

1.9

7.7

-0.1

20%

63%

5.7

15%

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OPTISCAN

Vote

 Change

 

 

Percent change

 

Bush net Increase

Bush net margin

 

 Alachua

15.0

13.5

-2.7

32%

40%

(1.5)

2%

0

 Baker

-0.2

2.1

0.0

-9%

38%

2.3

16%

0

 Bay

2.2

14.8

-0.5

12%

38%

12.5

9%

0

 Bradford

0.2

2.1

-0.1

5%

40%

2.0

13%

0

 Brevard

12.8

37.7

-3.3

13%

33%

24.8

8%

4

 

 Calhoun

0.0

0.9

0.0

-2%

32%

0.9

14%

0

 Citrus

3.7

9.7

-0.9

15%

33%

6.0

7%

0

 Clay

4.3

20.1

-0.3

29%

48%

15.9

5%

0

 Columbia

1.0

5.8

-0.1

14%

53%

4.8

14%

0

 De Soto

0.6

1.3

-0.1

18%

30%

0.7

5%

0

 

 Dixie

0.1

1.7

0.0

7%

64%

1.6

20%

0

 Duval

50.3

67.2

-1.5

47%

44%

16.9

-1%

12

 Escambia

7.3

20.4

-1.2

18%

28%

13.1

4%

1

 Flagler

4.7

7.0

-0.3

34%

56%

2.3

8%

0

 Franklin

0.4

1.0

0.0

17%

41%

0.7

9%

0

 

Gadsden

4.9

1.5

-0.1

50%

31%

(3.4)

-6%

1

Gilchrist

0.1

1.6

-0.1

6%

50%

1.5

16%

0

Glades

0.3

0.6

0.0

19%

33%

0.3

5%

0

Gulf

0.0

1.2

0.0

0%

35%

1.2

14%

0

Hamilton

0.5

0.6

0.0

31%

30%

0.1

0%

0

 

 Hardee

-0.2

1.3

0.0

-8%

34%

1.5

17%

0

 Hendry

0.7

1.0

-0.1

22%

21%

0.3

0%

0

 Hernando

3.9

11.2

-1.0

12%

37%

7.3

10%

0

 Highlands

1.2

5.7

-0.4

8%

28%

4.5

8%

0

 Holmes

-0.4

1.4

-0.1

-17%

28%

1.8

17%

0

 

 Jackson

0.7

3.0

-0.1

10%

33%

2.3

9%

0

 Jefferson

1.1

0.8

0.0

36%

33%

(0.3)

-1%

0

 Lee

20.8

38.3

-2.2

28%

36%

17.5

3%

0

 Leon

22.4

12.5

-1.5

36%

32%

(9.9)

-2%

26

 Levy

0.7

3.6

-0.2

13%

52%

2.9

15%

0

 

 Liberty

0.1

0.6

0.0

5%

46%

0.6

16%

0

 Madison

1.0

1.2

0.0

34%

38%

0.1

1%

0

 Manatee

12.1

23.3

-1.8

25%

40%

11.3

6%

0

 Marion

12.6

26.1

-1.2

28%

47%

13.5

7%

2

 Monroe

3.2

3.4

-0.8

19%

21%

0.2

1%

0

 

 Okaloosa

2.4

17.6

-0.6

14%

34%

15.2

6%

0

 Okeechobee

0.6

1.9

-0.1

12%

38%

1.4

10%

0

 Orange

53.0

57.9

1.1

38%

43%

4.9

2%

16

 Osceola

10.4

16.9

-0.5

37%

64%

6.5

9%

1

 Polk

10.8

33.2

-1.3

14%

37%

22.5

9%

5

 

 Putnam

0.3

4.9

-0.2

3%

36%

4.6

14%

1

 St. Johns

6.9

19.6

-0.8

35%

50%

12.7

5%

0

 St. Lucie

10.3

12.9

-0.9

25%

37%

2.6

5%

0

 Santa Rosa

1.8

15.7

-0.4

14%

43%

13.9

9%

0

 Seminole

17.8

32.4

-1.4

30%

43%

14.7

5%

4

 

 Suwannee

0.4

3.1

-0.1

11%

39%

2.7

10%

0

 Taylor

0.4

1.4

0.0

15%

35%

1.0

7%

0

 Union

-0.2

1.1

0.0

-11%

46%

1.2

21%

0

 Volusia

18.0

29.2

-2.0

19%

35%

11.2

7%

8

 Wakulla

1.1

2.3

-0.1

28%

50%

1.2

8%

0

 

 Walton

0.6

5.4

-0.1

10%

44%

4.8

11%

0

 Washington

0.1

2.4

0.0

4%

48%

2.3

15%

0