Illinois 2010 Senate True Vote Analysis

Richard Charnin

June 18, 2011

This is an analysis of the 2010 Illinois senate race in which Kirk (Rep) defeated Giannoulias (Dem) by 60,000 recorded votes (49.2-47.6%).

Giannoulias won the unadjusted exit poll by 51-47%, a 144,000 vote margin.

The True Vote Model indicates that he won by 49.7-47.1%, a 97,000 margin.

The Final Illinois 2010 Exit Poll indicated that 56% of the votes recorded were cast by returning Obama voters and 38% by returning McCain voters.

The 2008 Presidential True Vote analysis indicates that Obama won nationally by 58-40% - a 22 million vote margin (only 9.5 million was recorded). Forcing the State and National Exit Polls to match the recorded vote is standard operating procedure. In order to force a match in 2004 and 2008, the exit pollsters had to assume an impossible number of returning Bush voters from the previous election. The Final Exit Poll is forced to match the recorded vote by adjusting the returning voter mix and/or the vote shares. In 2004, the impossible 43% returning Bush 2000 share insufficient to match the recorded vote. The exit pollsters had to increase his vote shares as well.

The returning voter mix should reflect the previous election True Vote, not the recorded vote.

Assume a) 60% turnout of Obama voters, b) 70% McCain turnout and c) an even spit between Gianoulias and Kirk among new voters and returning third-party voters. The True Vote Model indicates that if Giannoulias captured just 82% of returning Obama voters, he won by approximately 97,000 votes. With an 80% share of returning Obama voters, he won by 17,000 votes.

As in the Wisconsin and Pennsylvania senate exit polls, vote shares were not available for returning third party (Other) voters and new (DNV) voters. However, the Illinois exit poll indicated that returning 2008 third-party voters and new voters each comprised 3% (108,000) of the vote. There were only 72,000 third-party voters in 2008. Approximately 49,000 returned to vote in 2010. Therefore, the returning third-party mix was changed to 1.4%. The DNV increased from to 5.0%.

The sensitivity analysis tables display Giannoulias’ vote share and margin for various scenarios: 1) Obama 2008 voter turnout in 2010 , 2) Giannoulias’ shares of returning Obama voters and 3) Kirk shares of returning McCain voters.

Exit Poll Oddities

The Final 2010 Illinois Exit Poll is eerily similar to the Wisconsin amd Pennsylvania polls. Apparently, the exit pollsters forgot to adjust “When Decided” to match the recorded vote in each election. Feingold in Wisconsin, Sestak in Pennsylvanua and Giannoulias in Illinois each won the “When Decided” category in the Final. But they lost in the other categories.

Giannoulias had a 54-37% lead among the 29% of voters who decided in the month before the election. He won the “When Decided” category by 49.4-46.1%.

The Democrats led in Party ID by 44-31% over the Republicans. Democrats virtually always win when they have an edge in Party-ID. Kirk needed an implausible 61% of Independents.

Giannoulias tied Kirk among the 94% who were returning Obama and McCain voters in the “How Voted in 2008” category,

At the same time, to believe the Illinois recorded vote, you must also believe that one out of five returning Obama voters defected to Kirk but only 1 out of 33 returning McCain voters defected to Giannoulias.

You must also believe that just 61% of Obama voters returned to vote while 70% of McCain voters did.

2008 National Exit Poll (recorded vote)					2008 National True Vote
Voted 2004	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other	Voted 2004	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other
DNV	13%	71%	27%	2%	DNV	12.4%	71%	27%	2%
Kerry	37%	89%	9%	1%	Kerry	46.8%	89%	9%	1%
Bush	46%	17%	82%	1%	Bush	39.7%	17%	82%	1%
Other	4%	66%	20%	8%	Other	1.1%	66%	20%	8%
Total	100%	52.6%	45.4%	1.4%	Total	100%	57.9%	40.3%	1.2%

2010 Illinois Senate Recorded Vote

Exit Poll (recorded vote)			97.5%	Turnout	2010		Vote share			Recorded
2008	Recorded	Share	Alive	Rate	Voted	Mix	Giannoulias	Kirk	Other	Giannoulias	Kirk	Other
Obama	3420	61.9%	3335	61%	2034	56.3%	79%	18%	3%	1607	366	61
McCain	2032	36.8%	1981	70%	1387	38.4%	3%	93%	4%	42	1290	55
Other	72	1.3%	70	65%	46	1.3%	50%	50%	0%	23	23	0
DNV				-	149	4.1%	30%	70%	0%	45	105	0
Total	5523	100.0%	5385	64%	3616	100.0%	47.5%	49.3%	3.2%	1716	1783	116
								Margin		(67)

2010 Illinois Senate True Vote

True Vote							Vote share			True Vote
2008	True	Share	Alive	Turnout	Voted	Mix	Giannoulias	Kirk	Other	Giannoulias	Kirk	Other
Obama	3424	62.0%	3339	60%	2003	55.4%	82%	15%	3%	1643	300	60
McCain	2027	36.7%	1976	70%	1383	38.3%	3%	93%	4%	42	1287	55
Other	72	1.3%	70	70%	49	1.4%	50%	50%	0%	25	25	0
DNV				-	180	5.0%	50%	50%	0%	90	90	0
Total	5523	100.0%	5385	64%	3616	100.0%	49.7%	47.1%	3.2%	1799	1702	115
								Margin		97
						Recorded	47.6%	49.2%	3.2%	1719	1779	118

Sensitivity Analysis

		Giannoulias Share						Giannoulias Share
Obama		Giannoulias%Obama				Kirk %		Giannoulias%Obama
Turnout	79%	80%	81%	82%	83%	McCain	79%	80%	81%	82%	83%
68%	50.2%	50.9%	51.5%	52.1%	52.7%	89%	49.6%	50.2%	50.7%	51.3%	51.8%
66%	49.7%	50.3%	50.9%	51.5%	52.1%	90%	49.2%	49.8%	50.3%	50.9%	51.4%
64%	49.2%	49.7%	50.3%	50.9%	51.5%	91%	48.8%	49.4%	50.0%	50.5%	51.1%
62%	48.6%	49.2%	49.8%	50.3%	50.9%	92%	48.5%	49.0%	49.6%	50.1%	50.7%
60%	48.1%	48.6%	49.2%	49.7%	50.3%	93%	48.1%	48.6%	49.2%	49.7%	50.3%
		Giannoulias Margin						Giannoulias Margin
68%	140	185	231	276	321	89%	88	128	168	208	248
66%	99	143	187	231	275	90%	60	100	140	180	220
64%	58	101	144	187	229	91%	32	72	112	152	192
62%	18	59	100	142	183	92%	5	45	85	125	165
60%	(23)	17	57	97	137	93%	(23)	17	57	97	137

Illinois 2010 Senate Exit Poll

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=ILS01p1
	Total	Giannoulias	Kirk	Other
Recorded	3616	1719	1779	117
Share	100%	47.6%	49.2%	3.3%
Unadj. exit poll	2325 Resp	1187	1094	44
	Share	51.0%	47.0%	2.0%
Gender
Male	49%	45%	51%	3%
Female	51%	50%	47%	3%
Total	100%	47.6%	49.0%	3.0%
Race
White	69%	31%	64%	3%	2%
Black	20%	94%	3%	1%	2%
Latino	8%	63%	27%	7%	3%
Asian	2%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Other	2%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Total	101%	45.2%	46.9%	2.8%	2.0%
Age
18-29	13%	59%	33%	5%	3%
30-44	25%	49%	46%	4%	1%
45-64	47%	47%	51%	3%	1%
65+	15%	37%	59%	3%	1%
Total	100%	47.6%	48.6%	3.5%	1.3%
Income
Under $30,000	19%	65%	29%	5%	1%
$30-50,000	18%	60%	33%	5%	2%
$50-75,000	19%	45%	48%	4%	3%
$75-100,000	16%	43%	54%	2%	1%
$100-200,000	20%	35%	61%	3%	1%
$200,000 +	8%	25%	72%	2%	1%
Total	100%	47.6%	47.2%	3.7%	1.6%
Education
No H.S.	4%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
H.S. Grad	18%	55%	40%	3%	2%
Some College	30%	47%	46%	5%	2%
ColGrad	28%	40%	56%	2%	2%
Postgrad	20%	44%	54%	2%	N/A
Total	100%	44.0%	47.5%	3.0%	1.5%
College Grad
Yes	48%	41%	55%	4%
No	52%	51%	42%	7%
Total	100%	46.2%	48.2%	5.6%
Party ID
Democrat	44%	86%	10%	3%	1%
Republican	31%	5%	93%	0%	2%
Independent	25%	28%	61%	8%	3%
Total	100%	46.4%	48.5%	3.3%	1.8%
Ideology
Liberal	22%	87%	8%	5%
Moderate	43%	51%	44%	5%
Conservative	35%	15%	81%	4%
Total	100%	46.3%	49.0%	4.7%
Voted in 2008
Obama	56%	79%	18%	3%
McCain	38%	3%	93%	4%
Other	3%	35%	65%	N/A	N/A
Did not vote	3%	35%	65%	N/A	N/A
Total	100%	47.5%	49.3%	3.2%
When Decided
Three Days	13%	54%	37%	6%	N/A
Last Week	15%	54%	37%	6%	N/A
Last Month	21%	52%	43%	5%
Before	51%	46%	53%	1%
Total	100%	49.5%	46.4%	3.2%
When Decided
Last Week	29%	54%	37%	6%	3%
Before	71%	47%	50%	2%	1%
Total	100%	49.0%	46.2%	3.2%	1.6%
When Decided
Last Month	49%	53%	39%	6%	2%
Before	51%	46%	53%	1%	N/A
Total	100%	49.4%	46.1%	3.5%	1.0%
Size of Place
Big Cities	19%	77%	19%	4%
Smaller Cities	3%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Suburbs	63%	41%	54%	5%
Small Towns	5%	45%	49%	6%
Rural	10%	29%	65%	6%
Total	100%	45.6%	46.6%	4.8%
Size of Place
Urban	22%	72%	23%	5%
Suburban	63%	41%	54%	5%
Rural	15%	35%	60%	5%
Total	100%	46.9%	48.1%	5.0%
Region
Chicago	19%	77%	19%	3%	1%
Cook Suburbs	18%	53%	44%	2%	1%
Collar Counties	25%	38%	57%	3%	2%
Northern Illinois	23%	33%	60%	5%	2%
Southern Illinois	15%	35%	59%	4%	2%
Total	100%	46.5%	48.4%	3.4%	1.6%