Illinois 2010 Senate True Vote Analysis

 

Richard Charnin

 

June 18, 2011                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                     

This is an analysis of the 2010 Illinois senate race in which Kirk (Rep) defeated Giannoulias (Dem) by 60,000 recorded votes (49.2-47.6%).

 

Giannoulias won the unadjusted exit poll by 51-47%, a 144,000 vote margin.

The True Vote Model indicates that he won by 49.7-47.1%, a 97,000 margin.

 

The Final Illinois 2010 Exit Poll indicated that 56% of the votes recorded were cast by returning Obama voters and 38% by returning McCain voters.

 

The 2008 Presidential True Vote analysis indicates that Obama won nationally by 58-40% - a 22 million vote margin (only 9.5 million was recorded). Forcing the State and National Exit Polls to match the recorded vote is standard operating procedure. In order to force a match in 2004 and 2008, the exit pollsters had to assume an impossible number of returning Bush voters from the previous election. The Final Exit Poll is forced to match the recorded vote by adjusting the returning voter mix and/or the vote shares. In 2004, the impossible 43% returning Bush 2000 share insufficient to match the recorded vote. The exit pollsters had to increase his vote shares as well.

 

The returning voter mix should reflect the previous election True Vote, not the recorded vote.

 

Assume a) 60% turnout of  Obama voters, b) 70% McCain turnout  and c) an even spit between Gianoulias and Kirk among new voters and returning third-party voters. The True Vote Model indicates that if Giannoulias captured just 82% of returning Obama voters, he won by approximately 97,000 votes. With an 80% share of returning Obama voters, he won by 17,000 votes.

 

As in the Wisconsin and Pennsylvania senate exit polls, vote shares were not available for returning third party (Other) voters and new (DNV) voters. However, the Illinois exit poll indicated that returning 2008 third-party voters and new voters each comprised 3% (108,000) of the vote.  There were only 72,000 third-party voters in 2008. Approximately 49,000 returned to vote in 2010. Therefore, the returning third-party mix was changed to 1.4%. The DNV increased from to 5.0%.

 

The sensitivity analysis tables display Giannoulias’ vote share and margin for various scenarios: 1) Obama 2008 voter turnout in 2010 , 2) Giannoulias’ shares of returning Obama voters and 3) Kirk shares of returning McCain voters.

 

Exit Poll Oddities

 

The Final 2010 Illinois Exit Poll is eerily similar to the Wisconsin amd Pennsylvania polls. Apparently, the exit pollsters forgot to adjust “When Decided” to match the recorded vote in each election. Feingold in Wisconsin, Sestak in Pennsylvanua and Giannoulias in Illinois each won the “When Decided” category in the Final. But they lost in the other categories.  

 

Giannoulias had a 54-37% lead among the 29% of voters who decided in the month before the election. He won the “When Decided” category by 49.4-46.1%.

 

The Democrats led in Party ID by 44-31% over the Republicans. Democrats virtually always win when they have an edge in Party-ID. Kirk needed an implausible 61% of Independents.

Giannoulias tied Kirk among the 94% who were returning Obama and McCain voters in the “How Voted in 2008” category,

 

At the same time, to believe the Illinois recorded vote, you must also believe that one out of five returning Obama voters defected to Kirk but only 1 out of 33 returning McCain voters defected to Giannoulias.

You must also believe that just 61% of Obama voters returned to vote while 70% of McCain voters did.

 

 

 

 

2008 National Exit Poll (recorded vote)

 

2008 National True Vote

 

 

 

Voted 2004

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

 

Voted 2004

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

DNV

13%

71%

27%

2%

 

DNV

12.4%

71%

27%

2%

Kerry

37%

89%

9%

1%

 

Kerry

46.8%

89%

9%

1%

Bush

46%

17%

82%

1%

 

Bush

39.7%

17%

82%

1%

Other

4%

66%

20%

8%

 

Other

1.1%

66%

20%

8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

100%

52.6%

45.4%

1.4%

 

Total

100%

57.9%

40.3%

1.2%

 

 

2010 Illinois Senate Recorded Vote

 

Exit Poll (recorded vote)

 

97.5%

Turnout

2010

 

Vote share

 

 

Recorded

 

 

2008

Recorded

Share

Alive

Rate

Voted

Mix

Giannoulias

Kirk

Other

Giannoulias

Kirk

Other

Obama

3420

61.9%

3335

61%

2034

56.3%

79%

18%

3%

1607

366

61

McCain

2032

36.8%

1981

70%

1387

38.4%

3%

93%

4%

42

1290

55

Other

72

1.3%

70

65%

46

1.3%

50%

50%

0%

23

23

0

DNV

 

 

 

-

149

4.1%

30%

70%

0%

45

105

0

Total

5523

100.0%

5385

64%

3616

100.0%

47.5%

49.3%

3.2%

1716

1783

116

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

(67)

 

 

 

 

2010 Illinois Senate True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote share

 

 

True Vote

 

 

2008

True

Share

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Mix

Giannoulias

Kirk

Other

Giannoulias

Kirk

Other

Obama

3424

62.0%

3339

60%

2003

55.4%

82%

15%

3%

1643

300

60

McCain

2027

36.7%

1976

70%

1383

38.3%

3%

93%

4%

42

1287

55

Other

72

1.3%

70

70%

49

1.4%

50%

50%

0%

25

25

0

DNV

 

 

 

-

180

5.0%

50%

50%

0%

90

90

0

Total

5523

100.0%

5385

64%

3616

100.0%

49.7%

47.1%

3.2%

1799

1702

115

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

97

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

47.6%

49.2%

3.2%

1719

1779

118

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

 

 

 

Giannoulias Share

 

 

 

 

 

Giannoulias Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama 

 

Giannoulias%Obama

 

 

 

Kirk % 

 

Giannoulias%Obama

 

 

 

Turnout

79%

80%

81%

82%

83%

 

McCain

79%

80%

81%

82%

83%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

68%

50.2%

50.9%

51.5%

52.1%

52.7%

 

89%

49.6%

50.2%

50.7%

51.3%

51.8%

 

66%

49.7%

50.3%

50.9%

51.5%

52.1%

 

90%

49.2%

49.8%

50.3%

50.9%

51.4%

 

64%

49.2%

49.7%

50.3%

50.9%

51.5%

 

91%

48.8%

49.4%

50.0%

50.5%

51.1%

 

62%

48.6%

49.2%

49.8%

50.3%

50.9%

 

92%

48.5%

49.0%

49.6%

50.1%

50.7%

 

60%

48.1%

48.6%

49.2%

49.7%

50.3%

 

93%

48.1%

48.6%

49.2%

49.7%

50.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Giannoulias Margin

 

 

 

 

 

Giannoulias Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

68%

140

185

231

276

321

 

89%

88

128

168

208

248

 

66%

99

143

187

231

275

 

90%

60

100

140

180

220

 

64%

58

101

144

187

229

 

91%

32

72

112

152

192

 

62%

18

59

100

142

183

 

92%

5

45

85

125

165

 

60%

(23)

17

57

97

137

 

93%

(23)

17

57

97

137

 

 

 

 

Illinois 2010 Senate Exit Poll

 

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=ILS01p1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

        Total

Giannoulias

     Kirk

    Other

 

Recorded

3616

1719

1779

117

 

Share

100%

47.6%

49.2%

3.3%

 

Unadj. exit poll

2325 Resp

1187

1094

44

 

 

Share

51.0%

47.0%

2.0%

 

Gender

 

 

 

 

 

Male 

49%

45%

51%

3%

 

Female 

51%

50%

47%

3%

 

Total

100%

47.6%

49.0%

3.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Race

 

 

 

 

 

White

69%

31%

64%

3%

2%

Black

20%

94%

3%

1%

2%

Latino

8%

63%

27%

7%

3%

Asian

2%

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Other

2%

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Total

101%

45.2%

46.9%

2.8%

2.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Age

 

 

 

 

 

18-29

13%

59%

33%

5%

3%

30-44

25%

49%

46%

4%

1%

45-64

47%

47%

51%

3%

1%

65+

15%

37%

59%

3%

1%

Total

100%

47.6%

48.6%

3.5%

1.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income

 

 

 

 

 

Under $30,000

19%

65%

29%

5%

1%

$30-50,000

18%

60%

33%

5%

2%

$50-75,000

19%

45%

48%

4%

3%

$75-100,000

16%

43%

54%

2%

1%

$100-200,000 

20%

35%

61%

3%

1%

$200,000 +

8%

25%

72%

2%

1%

Total

100%

47.6%

47.2%

3.7%

1.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Education

 

 

 

 

 

No H.S.

4%

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

H.S. Grad

18%

55%

40%

3%

2%

Some College

30%

47%

46%

5%

2%

ColGrad

28%

40%

56%

2%

2%

Postgrad

20%

44%

54%

2%

N/A

Total

100%

44.0%

47.5%

3.0%

1.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

College Grad

 

 

 

 

 

Yes

48%

41%

55%

4%

 

No

52%

51%

42%

7%

 

Total

100%

46.2%

48.2%

5.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Party ID

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

44%

86%

10%

3%

1%

Republican

31%

5%

93%

0%

2%

Independent

25%

28%

61%

8%

3%

Total

100%

46.4%

48.5%

3.3%

1.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ideology

 

 

 

 

 

Liberal

22%

87%

8%

5%

 

Moderate

43%

51%

44%

5%

 

Conservative

35%

15%

81%

4%

 

Total

100%

46.3%

49.0%

4.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Voted in 2008

 

 

 

 

 

Obama 

56%

79%

18%

3%

 

McCain

38%

3%

93%

4%

 

Other

3%

35%

65%

N/A

N/A

Did not vote 

3%

35%

65%

N/A

N/A

Total

100%

47.5%

49.3%

3.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When Decided

 

 

 

 

 

Three Days

13%

54%

37%

6%

N/A

Last Week 

15%

54%

37%

6%

N/A

Last Month

21%

52%

43%

5%

 

Before

51%

46%

53%

1%

 

Total

100%

49.5%

46.4%

3.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When Decided

 

 

 

 

 

Last Week 

29%

54%

37%

6%

3%

Before

71%

47%

50%

2%

1%

Total

100%

49.0%

46.2%

3.2%

1.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

When Decided

 

 

 

 

 

Last Month 

49%

53%

39%

6%

2%

Before

51%

46%

53%

1%

N/A

Total

100%

49.4%

46.1%

3.5%

1.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Size of Place

 

 

 

 

 

Big Cities 

19%

77%

19%

4%

 

Smaller Cities

3%

N/A

N/A

N/A

 

Suburbs

63%

41%

54%

5%

 

Small Towns

5%

45%

49%

6%

 

Rural 

10%

29%

65%

6%

 

Total

100%

45.6%

46.6%

4.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Size of Place

 

 

 

 

 

Urban

22%

72%

23%

5%

 

Suburban

63%

41%

54%

5%

 

Rural

15%

35%

60%

5%

 

Total

100%

46.9%

48.1%

5.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Region

 

 

 

 

 

Chicago

19%

77%

19%

3%

1%

Cook Suburbs

18%

53%

44%

2%

1%

Collar Counties 

25%

38%

57%

3%

2%

Northern Illinois

23%

33%

60%

5%

2%

Southern Illinois

15%

35%

59%

4%

2%

Total

100%

46.5%

48.4%

3.4%

1.6%