Proof that Obama Won by Much More than 9

Proof that Obama Won by Much More than 9.5 Million Recorded Votes

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Oct. 10, 2010

In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 62-59 million.

It is a standard operating procedure for exit pollsters to force the final exit poll to match the recorded vote.

Do you agree that the Final 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote?

Yes.

Bush had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000.

Approximately 2.5 million Bush voters died and 2 million did not return to vote in 2004.

Therefore, there could not have been more than 46 million returning Bush voters.

Do you agree?

Yes.

But the Final 2004 NEP indicates that 52.6 million Bush voters returned in 2004.

That means there were 6.6 million phantom returning Bush voters.

That is an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters.

Do you agree?

Yes.

Did you ever hear or read about this anomaly in the mainstream media?

No.

Table 1

Final 2004 National Exit Poll

(Exit pollsters forced turnout of returning Bush/Gore voters and 2004 vote shares to match the 2004 recorded vote)

93% turnout of living Gore 2000 voters

110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters

98% turnout of living Nader and other third-party 2000 voters

National

2000

Forced

Turnout

---Vote shares---

---Votes (000)---

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

20,790

17.0%

54.0%

45.0%

1.0%

11,227

9,355

208

Gore

53,959

51,004

48,454

45,249

37.0%

90.0%

10.0%

0.0%

40,724

4,525

93%

Bush

52,854

50,460

47,937

52,586

43.0%

9.0%

91.0%

0.0%

4,733

47,853

110%

Other

4,160

3,953

3,756

3,669

3.0%

71.0%

8.0%

21.0%

2,605

294

770

98%

NEP

110,973

105,417

100,147

122,294

48.48%

50.72%

0.80%

59,288

62,027

978

101%

Net Unctd

5,556

5.01%

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

122,294

Recorded

48.38%

47.87%

3.75%

Discrepancy

0.21%

-0.01%

-0.20%

259

(13)

(246)

That’s not all.

According to the Census, nearly 111 million votes were cast in 2000 but only 105.4 million recorded.

More than 50% of uncounted votes are from heavily Democratic minority districts.

Approximately 75% of nearly 6 million uncounted votes were for Gore.

Did you ever hear or read about this anomaly in the mainstream media?

No.

Table 2

2004 True Vote Model

(Returning 2000 voter turnout based on 2000 total votes cast)

Assumptions:

2000

Votes Cast: 111 million (U.S. Census)

Uncounted votes: Gore had 75% of 5.5 million

Annual Voter Mortality: 1.25% (5% over 4 years)

Returning voter turnout: 98%

2004

Preliminary 12:22am NEP vote shares (13047 respondents)

Kerry wins by 10.5 million (53.5-45.2%)

National

2000

95%

98%

Turnout

---Vote shares---

---Votes (000)---

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

22,421

17.8%

57.0%

41.0%

2.0%

12,780

9,194

447

Gore

56,130

51,004

53,324

52,257

41.6%

91.0%

8.0%

1.0%

47,554

4,182

521

98%

Bush

51,270

50,460

48,706

47,732

38.0%

10.0%

90.0%

0.0%

4,773

42,959

98%

Other

3,573

3,953

3,395

3,327

2.6%

65.0%

13.0%

22.0%

2,162

432

732

98%

True

110,973

105,417

105,424

125,737

53.50%

45.15%

1.35%

67,270

56,767

1,700

98%

Net Unctd

5,556

5.01%

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

122,294

Recorded

48.38%

47.87%

3.75%

Discrepancy

5.23%

-5.58%

0.35%

8,241

(5,273)

476

OK, now let’s move on to 2008.

Do you agree that the Final 2008 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote?

Yes.

Then you must believe the Final NEP Obama and McCain shares of returning and new voters, right?

Yes.

Table 3

Final 2008 National Exit Poll

(Returning 2004 voter turnout forced to match the 2008 recorded vote)

87% turnout of living Kerry 2004 voters

103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters

452% turnout of living third party 2004 voters

Obama wins the recorded vote by 9.5 million (52.9-45.6%)

National

2004

95%

Forced

Turnout

---Vote shares---

---Votes (000)---

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

DNV

17,078

13.0%

71.0%

27.0%

2.0%

12,125

4,611

341

Kerry

61,115

59,028

56,077

48,607

37.0%

89.0%

10.0%

1.0%

43,260

4,861

486

87%

Bush

63,356

62,041

58,939

60,430

46.0%

17.0%

82.0%

1.0%

10,273

49,553

604

103%

Other

1,266

1,224

1,163

5,255

4.0%

73.0%

16.0%

11.0%

3,836

841

578

452%

NEP

125,737

122,294

116,179

131,370

52.90%

45.57%

1.53%

69,495

59,866

2,010

98%

Net Unctd

3,443

2.74%

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Recorded

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

Recorded

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

Discrepancy

0.03%

-0.05%

0.02%

(70)

The Final 2008 NEP indicates that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.

But that is not plausible (Bush had a 22% approval rating on Election Day 2008).

Do you agree?

Yes, 12 million more is not plausible - but it is still possible.

But the Final 2008 NEP indicates a 103% turnout of living 2004 Bush voters.

That is impossible, right?

Yes.

Therefore the Final NEP 46% returning Bush voter weighting must be incorrect, right?

Yes.

The Final 2008 NEP also indicates there were 5.25 million returning third-party voters (4% of the electorate).

But there were only 1.2 million recorded third-party votes in 2004.

Therefore the Final NEP 4% returning third-party weighting must also be incorrect, right?

Yes.

The Final 2008 NEP inflated the number of returning Bush and third-party voters.

Therefore, Obama must have won by more than 9.5 million votes, right?

Yes.

Assume a feasible (97%) turnout of living Bush, Kerry and third-party voters in 2008.

We will also assume that there was zero fraud in 2004 (i.e., the recorded vote was equal to the True Vote).

Table 4

Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll

(Returning voters based on 2004 recorded vote)

Assumptions:

97% returning voter turnout; 5% voter mortality

2004 recorded vote (Bush by 50.7-48.3%)

Obama wins by 14.7 million (55.0-43.8%)

National

2004

95%

97%

Turnout

---Vote shares---

---Votes (000)---

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

DNV

18,677

14.2%

71.0%

27.0%

2.0%

13,260

5,043

373

Kerry

62,158

59,028

56,077

54,395

41.4%

89.0%

10.0%

1.0%

48,411

5,440

544

97%

Bush

62,313

62,041

58,939

57,170

43.5%

17.0%

82.0%

1.0%

9,719

46,880

572

97%

Other

1,266

1,224

1,163

1,128

0.9%

73.0%

16.0%

11.0%

824

181

124

97%

Recorded

125,737

122,294

116,179

131,370

54.97%

43.80%

1.23%

72,214

57,543

1,613

97%

Net Unctd

3,443

2.74%

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Recorded

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

Recorded

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

Discrepancy

2.10%

-1.82%

-0.28%

2,757

(2,393)

(365)

But virtually all election analysts have concluded that the 2004 election was stolen.

Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-47%.

If Kerry won by the aggregate exit poll margin, then Obama won by 22 million votes – even assuming the Final NEP vote shares.

Table 5

2008 True Vote Model I

(Returning voters based on 2004 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate)

Assumptions:

97% returning 2004 voter turnout; 5% voter mortality

Kerry won by 52-47% (aggregate state exit poll)

Obama wins the True Vote by 22.0 million (57.0-41.8%)

National

2004

95%

97%

Turnout

---Vote shares---

---Votes (000)---

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

DNV

16,441

12.4%

71.0%

27.0%

2.0%

11,673

4,439

329

Kerry

65,340

59,028

62,073

60,211

45.5%

89.0%

10.0%

1.0%

53,588

6,021

602

97%

Bush

59,138

62,041

56,181

54,496

41.2%

17.0%

82.0%

1.0%

9,264

44,687

545

97%

Other

1,259

1,224

1,196

1,160

0.9%

73.0%

16.0%

11.0%

847

186

128

97%

Exit

125,737

122,294

119,450

132,308

56.97%

41.82%

1.21%

75,372

55,333

1,603

97%

Net Unctd

3,443

2.74%

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Recorded

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

Recorded

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

Discrepancy

4.10%

-3.80%

-0.29%

5,915

(4,603)

(374)

But Table 2 shows that Kerry won the True Vote by over 10 million, with a 53.5% vote share.

Let’s calculate the 2008 True Vote based on the 2004 True Vote.

Table 6

2008 True Vote Model II

(Returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)

Assumptions:

97% returning voter turnout; 5% voter mortality

Kerry won the True Vote by 53.5-45.1% (Table 2)

Obama wins the True Vote by 22.8 million (58.0-40.7%).

National

2004

95%

97%

Turnout

---Vote shares---

---Votes (000)---

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

DNV

16,441

12.4%

71.0%

27.0%

2.0%

11,673

4,439

329

Kerry

67,219

59,028

63,858

61,942

46.8%

89.0%

10.0%

1.0%

55,129

6,194

619

97%

Bush

56,959

62,041

54,111

52,488

39.7%

17.0%

82.0%

1.0%

8,923

43,040

525

97%

Other

1,559

1,224

1,481

1,437

1.1%

73.0%

16.0%

11.0%

1,049

230

158

97%

True

125,737

122,294

119,450

132,308

58.03%

40.74%

1.23%

76,774

53,903

1,631

97%

Net Unctd

3,443

2.74%

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Recorded

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

Recorded

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

Discrepancy

5.16%

-4.88%

-0.27%

7,317

(6,032)

(347)

Summary Arguments

The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote.

The 2008 True Vote Model used the same vote shares as the 2008 Final.

So there can be no argument there.

The 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters as indicated in the Final 2004 NEP was impossible.

The impossible turnout was adjusted to a feasible 98%.

So there can be no argument there.

The 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters as indicated in the Final 2008 NEP was impossible.

The impossible turnout was adjusted to a feasible 97%.

So there can be no argument there.

The 5.25 million returning third-party voters as indicated in the Final 2008 NEP was impossible.

The impossible 452% turnout was adjusted to a feasible 97%.

So there can be no argument there.

Q. E. D.

Sensitivity Analysis

The following tables show that Obama won by a minimum of 20 million votes - even assuming his National Exit Poll vote shares are reduced by 2%. The margin of error for new (DNV) voters is 1.6%; the MoE is 1.1% for returning Kerry and Bush voters.

Worst case scenario (2% reduction in National Exit Poll vote shares):

Obama has 56.8%, assuming a 69% share of new (DNV) voters and an 87% share of Kerry voters, a 19.7 million vote margin.

Base case scenario (National Exit Poll vote shares):

Obama has 58.0%, assuming a 71% share of new (DNV) voters and an 89% share of Kerry voters, a 22.8 million vote margin.

Best case scenario (2% increase in National Exit Poll vote shares):

Obama has 59.2%, assuming a 73% share of new (DNV) voters and a 91% share of Kerry voters, a 26.0 million vote margin.

Coincidentally, Obama had 59.2% of the 10 million late (paper ballot) votes recorded after Election Day.


Bush		Kerry turnout				Share of		Obama Share of DNV				Share of		Obama Share of Kerry
turnout	95%	96%	97%	98%	99%	Bush	69%	70%	71%	72%	73%	DNV	87%	88%	89%	90%	91%
		Obama Share (%)						Obama Share (%)						Obama Share (%)
95%	58.3	58.4	58.5	58.5	58.6	19%	58.6	58.7	58.8	58.9	59.1	73%	57.3	57.8	58.3	58.7	59.2
96%	58.1	58.1	58.2	58.3	58.4	18%	58.2	58.3	58.4	58.5	58.7	72%	57.2	57.7	58.1	58.6	59.1
97%	57.8	57.9	58.0	58.1	58.2	17%	57.8	57.9	58.0	58.1	58.3	71%	57.1	57.5	58.0	58.5	59.0
98%	57.6	57.7	57.8	57.9	58.0	16%	57.4	57.5	57.6	57.7	57.9	70%	57.0	57.4	57.9	58.4	58.8
99%	57.4	57.5	57.6	57.7	57.7	15%	57.0	57.1	57.2	57.3	57.5	69%	56.8	57.3	57.8	58.2	58.7

		Obama Margin (mil.)						Obama Margin (mil.)						Obama Margin (mil.)
95%	23.6	23.8	24.0	24.2	24.5	19%	24.3	24.6	24.9	25.3	25.6	73%	21.0	22.3	23.5	24.7	26.0
96%	23.0	23.2	23.4	23.7	23.9	18%	23.2	23.6	23.9	24.2	24.5	72%	20.7	21.9	23.2	24.4	25.6
97%	22.4	22.6	22.8	23.1	23.3	17%	22.2	22.5	22.8	23.2	23.5	71%	20.4	21.6	22.8	24.1	25.3
98%	21.8	22.0	22.3	22.5	22.7	16%	21.1	21.5	21.8	22.1	22.4	70%	20.0	21.3	22.5	23.8	25.0
99%	21.2	21.4	21.7	21.9	22.1	15%	20.1	20.4	20.7	21.1	21.4	69%	19.7	20.9	22.2	23.4	24.7

		Obama Electoral Vote						Obama Electoral Vote						Obama Electoral Vote
95%	419	419	419	419	419	19%	419	419	419	419	419	73%	419	419	419	419	431
96%	419	419	419	419	419	18%	419	419	419	419	419	72%	419	419	419	425	434
97%	419	419	419	419	419	17%	408	419	419	419	419	71%	419	419	419	425	434
98%	408	408	408	408	419	16%	397	397	408	408	419	70%	419	419	419	419	431
99%	397	397	408	408	408	15%	374	389	389	408	408	69%	419	419	419	419	431

MoE	0.8%	0.7%	0.6%	0.5%	0.3%	MoE	1.6%	1.6%	1.6%	1.6%	1.5%	MoE	1.17%	1.13%	1.08%	1.04%	0.99%