Ohio 2000 and 2004 County Recorded Votes,  2004 Exit Poll and True Vote Model

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

On December 14, 2007, Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman reported that the Ohio Secretary of State confirmed that the 2004 election could have been stolen:

 

Ohio's Secretary of State announced this morning that a $1.9 million official study shows that "critical security failures" are embedded throughout the voting systems in the state that decided the 2004 election. Those failures, she says, "could impact the integrity of elections in the Buckeye State." They have rendered Ohio's vote counts "vulnerable" to manipulation and theft by "fairly simple techniques."  Indeed, she says, "the tools needed to compromise an accurate vote count could be as simple as tampering with the paper audit trail connector or using a magnet and a personal digital assistant." In other words, Ohio's top election official has finally confirmed that the 2004 election could have been easily stolen”.
……

“The final official tally for Bush---less than 119,000 votes out of 5.4 million cast---varied by 6.7% from exit poll results, which showed a Kerry victory. Exit polls in 2004 were designed to have a margin of error of about 1%.


In various stations in Democrat-rich inner city precincts in
Youngstown and Columbus, voters who pushed touch screens for Kerry saw Bush's name light up. A wide range of discrepancies on both electronic and paper balloting systems leaned almost uniformly toward the Bush camp. Voting procedures regularly broke down in inner city and campus areas known to be heavily Democratic. In direct violation of standing federal election law, 56 of 88 Ohio counties have since destroyed all or part of their 2004 election data.”

 

Bush won Ohio by 119,000 recorded votes. According to the Census, there were 143,000 more votes recorded than cast.  RFK Jr, in his 2006 Rolling Stone article, provided evidence that approximately 350,000 votes were uncounted. Therefore, assuming the Census and RFK numbers, there had to be 493,000 stuffed votes (493=350+143).  Assuming that Kerry had 75% of the 350k uncounted votes and 493k ballots were stuffed for Bush, applying these adjustments to the recorded vote results in a 53% Kerry share, closely matching the unadjusted exit poll (54.4%)

 

Kerry won the unadjusted (WPE) Ohio Exit Poll by 54.4-45.6% and the 1222am adjusted Composite (1963 respondents) by 52.1-47.9%.  Bush won the 2:06pm Final (2020 respondents) by 50.9-49.1%. Vote shares and weights were adjusted to force a match to the recorded Ohio vote. It’s Standard Operating Procedure.

 

If the 12:22am Ohio exit poll weightings had been used in the Final, it would have been necessary to inflate the Bush vote shares to implausible levels to match the recorded vote.  So the weights were adjusted in favor of Bush to minimize the vote share inflation.

 

First-time Voters

Of the 14% who were first-time voters, 55% were for Kerry. Are we to believe that he won just 47% of the other 86%?

 

Bush Approval

On Election Day, Bush had an average 48.5% national approval rating (11-polls). In the 12:22am Ohio Exit Poll, the Bush Approval weighting was 51% (Kerry won by 50.1-49.9%).  In the Final Ohio Exit Poll, Bush approval was increased to an implausible 53% in order to force a match to the recorded vote (Bush won by 51.6-47.0%).  

Using 48% Bush approval, Kerry won by 52.8-47.2%, a 320,000 vote margin.

 

Approval

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Approve

48%

7%

93%

Disapprove

52%

95%

5%

 

   Total

100%

52.8%

47.2%

Votes

5.64

2.98

2.66

 

 

Size of Community

According to the 12:22am Ohio Exit Poll, Kerry won in the Big Cities by 50-49% - but Bush won Big Cities in the Final Exit Poll by 53-43%.  Are we supposed to believe that Bush outpolled Kerry by 10% in large, traditionally Democratic urban locations such as Cleveland and Cincinnati?

 

When Decided

Of the 21% who decided in the month prior to the election, 62% voted for Kerry, compared to just 45% of the 79% who decided earlier. Not plausible. The Final Ohio exit poll had Bush leading in Sept. by an implausible 55-45%.  The race was essentially tied in late September.

Using a 50-50 split, Kerry wins by 52.5-47.4%, a 290,000 vote margin.

 

Decided 

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Today

5%

60%

40%

3 Days ago

4%

64%

36%

Week

2%

64%

36%

Month

10%

62%

37%

Before

79%

50%

50%

 

Total

100%

52.5%

47.5%


Votes

5.64

2.96

2.67%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Party ID 

The weights changed from 38D/37R to 35D/40R. With the original weights, Bush needed 17% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. He had 8%. Nationally, the Dems led Party ID by 38-35%.

Using this mix, Kerry wins by 52.3-46.1%, a 350,000 vote margin.

 

Party ID

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Democrat

38%

91%

8%

Republican

35%

6%

94%

Independent

26%

60%

39%

 

Total

100%

52.3%

46.1%

Votes

 5.64

  2.95

  2.60

 

 

Ideology

Liberal/Conservative mix changed from 21/32 to 19/34.With original weights, Bush needed 23% of Liberals to match the recorded vote. He had 13%.

 

Voted for Senate

Democratic/Republican weights changed from 43/57 to 36/64, a 16.3% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 14% of those who voted for the Democratic Senate candidate. He had 7%.

 

Ohio 2004 Exit Poll

 

                          12:22am                                              Final                  

                         (1963 respondents)                             (2020 respondents)

 

GENDER           Mix      Votes    Kerry    Bush                  Mix      Kerry    Bush 

Male                  47%      2.65      51%      49%                  47%      48%      52% 

Female              53%      2.99      53%      47%                  53%      50%      50%

Total                 100%   5.64      52.1%  47.9%               100%   49.1      50.9% 

 

RACE/ GENDER                                                                           

White Male       40%      2.25      47%      53%                  40%      43%      56%

White Female    45%      2.54      47%      53%                  45%      45%      55% 

Non-white Male7%        0.39      75%      25%                  7%        73%      27%

Non-white Fem 8%        0.45      82%      18%                  8%        82%      18% 

Total                 100%   5.64      51.8%  48.2%               100%   49.6%  51.0%

 

VOTED BEFORE?                                                                         

No                     14%      0.79      55%      45%                  15%      54%      46%     

Yes                    86%      4.85      50%      50%                  85%      47%      52%     

Total                 100%   5.64      50.7%  49.3%               100%   48.1%  51.1%  

 

PRATY ID          

Democrat          38%      2.14      91%      8%                    35%      90%      9% 

Republican         37%      2.08      6%        94%                  40%      6%        94%  

Independent      25%      1.41      60%      39%                  25%      59%      40%   

Total                 100%   5.64      51.8%  47.6%               100%   48.6%  50.7

        

DECIDED         Mix      Votes    Kerry    Bush                  Mix      Kerry    Bush 

Today               5%        0.28      60%      40%                  5%        61%      39%   

3 Days ago        4%        0.23      64%      36%                  4%        64%      36% 

Week               2%       0.11      64%     36%                  3%       64%     36% 

Month              10%     0.56      62%     37%                  10%     61%     36% 

Before               79%      4.45      48%      52%                  78%      45%      55%

Total                 100%   5.64      51.0%  48.9%               100%   48.7%  50.3%

 

BUSH APPROVAL

Approve            51%      2.87      7%        93%                  53%      7%        93%     

Disapprove        49%      2.76      95%      5%                    47%      95%      5%       

Total                 100%   5.64      50.1%  49.9%               100%   48.4%  51.6%

 

COMMUNITY 

Urban                26%      1.47      59%      41%                  26%      58%      41%

Suburban            49%      2.76      51%      49%                  49%      49%      51%

Rural                 25%      1.41      44%      56%                  25%      40%      60%

Total                 100%   5.64      51.3%  48.7%               100%   48.5% 50.2%

 

U.S. SENATE      

Democrat          43%      2.42      93%      7%                    36%      94%      6% 

Republican         57%      3.21      21%      79%                  64%      23%      77%  

Total                 100%   5.64      52.0%  48.0%               100%   48.6%  51.4%          

 

 

Ohio 2000-2004 Recorded Votes and Margins

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

 

 

2004

 

2000

 

 

 

2004

 

 

Margin

% Change from 2000

Margin

Margin

County

Precincts

Vote/Pct

Total

GORE

BUSH

NADER

Total

KERRY

BUSH

Change

KERRY

BUSH

Change

Change

Recorded

12164

460

4,655,256

47.0%

50.5%

2.5%

5,600,935

48.9%

51.1%

(46,418)

25.4

21.6

(46.4)

(3.76)

Initial

 

 

4,526,390

46.8%

50.7%

2.5%

5,455,811

48.7%

51.3%

(39,943)

25.6

21.9

(39.9)

(3.71)

Late

 

 

128,866

53.1%

44.3%

2.6%

145,124

56.2%

43.8%

(6,475)

19.1

11.5

(6.5)

(7.54)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DRE

1615

532

692,276

49.1%

48.2%

2.6%

858,672

52.6%

47.4%

(38,932)

32.9

21.8

(38.9)

(11.04)

SCAN

986

667

553,370

43.8%

53.9%

2.3%

657,893

44.7%

55.3%

13,742

21.3

21.9

13.7

0.59

PUNCH

8897

443

3,280,744

46.8%

50.7%

2.6%

3,939,246

48.6%

51.4%

(14,753)

24.7

21.9

(14.8)

(2.77)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DRE 2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Auglaize   

43

515

18,936

28.2%

69.9%

1.9%

22,166

25.8%

74.2%

2,822

7.1

24.2

2.8

17.07

Franklin   

760

671

399,526

49.1%

48.3%

2.6%

509,769

54.1%

45.9%

38,286

40.5

21.3

(38.3)

(19.19)

Knox   

51

515

20,460

34.0%

63.8%

2.2%

26,290

36.6%

63.4%

979

38.0

27.8

1.0

(10.23)

Lake   

217

544

99,053

45.9%

51.0%

3.1%

118,086

48.7%

51.3%

1,935

26.5

20.0

(1.9)

(6.49)

Mahoning   

416

311

111,703

61.2%

35.8%

2.9%

129,468

62.9%

37.1%

5,184

19.2

19.8

(5.2)

0.63

Pickaway   

52

428

17,291

37.5%

61.0%

1.6%

22,252

37.7%

62.3%

1,411

29.5

31.5

1.4

2.00

Ross   

76

403

25,307

45.3%

53.1%

1.6%

30,641

44.7%

55.3%

1,261

19.6

26.1

1.3

6.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

1615

532

692,276

49.1%

48.2%

2.6%

858,672

52.6%

47.4%

38,932

32.9

21.8

(38.9)

(11.04)

Correlation

0.96

0.62

1.000

0.468

(0.477)

0.482

1.000

0.54

(0.54)

(0.99)

0.53

(0.51)

(0.99)

(0.71)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 SCAN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Allen   

173

274

42,098

32.2%

66.1%

1.7%

47,451

33.3%

66.7%

1,526

16.8

13.7

1.5

(3.16)

Ashland   

65

372

20,145

32.2%

65.1%

2.7%

24,171

34.5%

65.5%

855

28.7

20.7

0.9

(7.98)

Clermont   

191

456

67,775

30.1%

68.0%

1.9%

87,012

29.1%

70.9%

10,694

24.0

33.8

10.7

9.83

Coshocton   

43

369

13,933

39.6%

58.3%

2.1%

15,884

42.6%

57.4%

243

22.5

12.3

(0.2)

(10.20)

Erie   

101

383

33,967

51.0%

46.5%

2.5%

38,671

53.4%

46.6%

1,115

19.3

14.1

(1.1)

(5.21)

 

Geauga   

93

533

41,455

36.4%

60.3%

3.3%

49,528

39.5%

60.5%

478

29.7

19.9

0.5

(9.87)

Hancock   

67

512

29,650

28.9%

69.2%

1.9%

34,275

29.0%

71.0%

2,466

16.0

18.7

2.5

2.73

Hardin   

39

331

10,797

37.9%

60.1%

2.1%

12,910

36.6%

63.4%

1,066

15.5

26.2

1.1

10.69

Lucas   

549

390

181,949

58.1%

39.5%

2.3%

214,279

60.1%

39.9%

9,651

21.9

18.7

(9.7)

(3.14)

Miami   

82

611

41,632

36.7%

61.2%

2.1%

50,078

34.0%

66.0%

5,799

11.5

29.6

5.8

18.16

 

Ottawa   

78

291

19,438

47.8%

50.0%

2.2%

22,735

48.0%

52.0%

467

17.5

21.5

0.5

4.01

Sandusky   

90

353

24,733

43.7%

54.0%

2.3%

31,733

43.8%

56.2%

1,382

28.6

33.5

1.4

4.93

Washington

81

360

25,798

39.5%

58.4%

2.2%

29,166

41.6%

58.4%

18

19.2

13.1

0.0

(6.10)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

986

667

553,370

43.8%

53.9%

2.3%

657,893

44.7%

55.3%

13,742

21.3

21.9

13.7

59.5%

Correlation

0.99

0.12

1.00

0.51

(0.51)

0.03

1.00

0.48

(0.48)

(0.47)

0.1

0.1

(0.47)

(0.01)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PUNCH

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adams   

35

333

9,906

35.3%

63.1%

1.6%

11,669

35.9%

64.1%

533

19.9

19.6

0.5

-25.0%

Ashtabula   

127

348

38,101

50.9%

46.2%

2.9%

44,166

53.3%

46.7%

1,115

21.3

17.2

(1.1)

-414.4%

Athens   

69

395

22,022

53.6%

40.1%

6.3%

27,281

63.7%

36.3%

4,466

47.0

12.4

(4.5)

-3467.7%

Belmont   

93

350

28,879

54.5%

43.0%

2.5%

32,531

53.0%

47.0%

1,361

9.5

23.1

1.4

1353.8%

Brown   

44

444

16,046

36.7%

61.6%

1.7%

19,538

36.1%

63.9%

1,419

19.9

26.2

1.4

631.2%

 

Butler   

280

575

130,928

34.1%

63.9%

2.0%

160,920

33.7%

66.3%

13,531

21.3

27.6

13.5

622.6%

Carroll   

26

528

11,777

41.4%

56.3%

2.3%

13,721

45.1%

54.9%

409

26.9

13.6

(0.4)

-1326.3%

Champaign

50

364

15,110

38.3%

59.4%

2.2%

18,184

37.1%

62.9%

1,488

16.6

27.3

1.5

1066.2%

Clark   

112

601

55,762

49.0%

48.7%

2.4%

67,268

48.8%

51.2%

1,787

20.2

26.9

1.8

670.8%

Clinton   

36

496

14,592

32.0%

65.8%

2.2%

17,869

29.3%

70.7%

2,440

12.4

31.4

2.4

1903.8%

 

Columbn   

103

467

42,766

47.4%

49.9%

2.8%

48,096

47.6%

52.4%

1,260

13.0

18.3

1.3

525.9%

Crawford   

67

318

18,544

35.5%

61.7%

2.8%

21,293

35.8%

64.2%

1,182

15.8

19.4

1.2

360.9%

Cuyahoga   

1506

431

542,427

63.0%

34.0%

3.0%

648,886

66.8%

33.2%

60,848

26.9

16.7

(60.8)

-1012.8%

Darke   

53

482

22,517

33.6%

64.4%

1.9%

25,532

30.0%

70.0%

3,262

1.3

23.1

3.3

2187.7%

Defiance   

46

385

15,659

38.5%

59.3%

2.3%

17,701

37.8%

62.2%

1,075

11.0

18.7

1.1

772.6%

 

Delaware   

111

709

53,595

31.2%

66.7%

2.2%

78,728

33.6%

66.4%

6,719

58.7

46.2

6.7

-1243.9%

Fairfield   

118

563

52,783

35.5%

62.4%

2.1%

66,378

36.6%

63.4%

3,527

29.8

27.6

3.5

-214.2%

Fayette   

40

287

9,035

36.5%

61.7%

1.8%

11,465

37.0%

63.0%

700

28.7

29.5

0.7

84.1%

Fulton   

36

598

18,434

36.3%

61.7%

2.0%

21,541

37.6%

62.4%

667

21.0

18.2

0.7

-275.5%

Gallia   

36

375

12,328

38.6%

59.7%

1.7%

13,508

38.4%

61.6%

527

9.0

13.0

0.5

396.0%

 

Greene   

140

544

62,074

38.5%

59.1%

2.4%

76,190

38.5%

61.5%

4,715

22.8

27.7

4.7

490.0%

Guernsey   

71

228

14,570

43.6%

53.7%

2.7%

16,167

43.7%

56.3%

552

11.3

16.3

0.6

492.5%

Hamilton   

1025

397

359,437

42.6%

54.9%

2.5%

406,595

47.0%

53.0%

19,429

24.6

9.3

(19.4)

-1535.0%

Harrison   

24

339

6,896

48.1%

49.1%

2.7%

8,142

47.0%

53.0%

424

15.2

27.4

0.4

1219.7%

Henry   

33

448

12,936

33.1%

65.0%

1.9%

14,797

34.0%

66.0%

614

17.5

16.2

0.6

-129.6%

 

Highland   

46

389

15,031

34.8%

63.6%

1.6%

17,883

33.6%

66.4%

1,530

15.0

24.2

1.5

923.4%

Hocking   

31

416

10,229

42.8%

54.5%

2.8%

12,886

47.1%

52.9%

442

38.7

22.4

(0.4)

-1625.4%

Holmes   

27

404

8,827

23.0%

75.0%

1.9%

10,921

24.0%

76.0%

1,087

29.0

25.3

1.1

-366.6%

Huron   

69

361

20,649

38.8%

58.5%

2.7%

24,907

41.6%

58.4%

125

29.2

20.4

0.1

-882.5%

Jackson   

40

348

12,120

41.7%

56.5%

1.8%

13,901

39.7%

60.3%

1,068

9.2

22.4

1.1

1317.5%

 

Jefferson   

108

329

32,861

52.3%

45.0%

2.7%

35,561

52.5%

47.5%

589

8.7

14.1

0.6

537.8%

Lawrence   

84

322

23,872

46.6%

51.7%

1.7%

27,052

43.9%

56.1%

2,084

6.7

22.9

2.1

1621.5%

Licking   

139

557

60,811

37.5%

60.1%

2.4%

77,442

37.9%

62.1%

5,002

28.7

31.6

5.0

288.0%

Logan   

52

399

17,871

32.6%

65.0%

2.5%

20,728

32.1%

67.9%

1,646

14.2

21.3

1.6

709.1%

Lorain   

246

554

108,011

53.7%

43.4%

2.9%

136,263

56.2%

43.8%

5,578

31.8

27.5

(5.6)

-431.2%

 

Madison   

44

387

14,174

36.4%

61.5%

2.1%

17,011

35.7%

64.3%

1,302

17.7

25.4

1.3

773.5%

Marion   

90

314

24,009

42.1%

55.5%

2.4%

28,221

40.7%

59.3%

1,999

13.8

25.5

2.0

1163.6%

Medina   

146

570

64,961

40.4%

56.6%

3.0%

83,224

42.9%

57.1%

1,246

36.1

29.2

1.2

-694.6%

Meigs   

27

389

9,444

38.0%

59.6%

2.4%

10,490

41.3%

58.7%

214

20.7

9.4

(0.2)

-1127.5%

Mercer   

40

499

17,602

28.9%

68.9%

2.2%

19,946

24.7%

75.3%

3,044

(3.1)

23.8

3.0

2689.0%

 

Monroe   

29

260

6,783

52.4%

45.5%

2.2%

7,534

55.3%

44.7%

329

17.3

9.2

(0.3)

-806.0%

Montgomery

643

425

222,888

49.8%

48.2%

2.0%

272,978

50.6%

49.4%

125

24.6

25.5

0.1

95.6%

Morgan   

22

296

5,834

38.4%

58.6%

3.0%

6,505

43.2%

56.8%

292

25.3

8.1

(0.3)

-1726.2%

Morrow   

36

443

12,498

35.8%

61.8%

2.4%

15,964

35.4%

64.6%

1,405

26.4

33.5

1.4

704.6%

Muskingum

85

446

31,441

41.6%

55.6%

2.7%

37,951

42.3%

57.7%

1,444

22.6

25.2

1.4

255.3%

 

Noble   

27

238

5,832

39.0%

58.3%

2.6%

6,417

40.8%

59.2%

57

15.0

11.7

0.1

-327.3%

Paulding   

30

321

8,698

38.3%

59.0%

2.7%

9,618

36.8%

63.2%

732

6.4

18.4

0.7

1203.0%

Perry   

46

325

12,499

46.5%

50.8%

2.6%

14,972

48.1%

51.9%

25

23.9

22.2

0.0

-162.3%

Pike   

24

510

10,228

47.1%

51.2%

1.7%

12,250

47.9%

52.1%

102

21.7

21.9

0.1

21.5%

Portage   

122

615

60,850

50.6%

45.6%

3.8%

74,969

53.2%

46.8%

1,818

29.6

26.3

(1.8)

-330.7%

 

Preble   

46

450

17,648

35.6%

62.2%

2.2%

20,677

34.7%

65.3%

1,649

14.1

23.1

1.6

897.6%

Putnam   

51

364

16,984

23.7%

74.8%

1.5%

18,544

23.4%

76.6%

1,170

7.9

11.7

1.2

378.2%

Richland   

131

460

50,980

39.4%

58.0%

2.5%

60,309

39.9%

60.1%

2,715

19.6

22.5

2.7

288.7%

Scioto   

107

321

30,020

45.7%

52.4%

1.9%

34,376

47.8%

52.2%

524

19.9

14.0

(0.5)

-589.6%

Seneca   

73

362

23,706

39.6%

57.7%

2.8%

26,394

40.8%

59.2%

564

14.8

14.3

0.6

-52.1%

 

Shelby   

67

331

19,107

33.9%

64.1%

2.0%

22,162

28.6%

71.4%

3,733

(2.3)

29.3

3.7

3157.1%

Stark   

364

500

153,808

47.7%

49.7%

2.6%

182,154

50.7%

49.3%

5,470

25.7

17.5

(5.5)

-817.5%

Summit   

624

431

217,232

53.7%

43.6%

2.7%

269,081

56.8%

43.2%

14,599

31.0

22.8

(14.6)

-819.2%

Trumbull   

284

372

92,901

60.6%

36.5%

2.9%

105,541

61.9%

38.1%

2,688

16.0

18.7

(2.7)

265.3%

Tuscarawas

81

516

35,814

43.6%

53.5%

2.9%

41,819

44.1%

55.9%

1,344

18.3

21.9

1.3

362.4%

 

Union   

47

471

16,533

29.8%

68.1%

2.0%

22,139

29.6%

70.4%

2,714

32.7

38.4

2.7

570.9%

Van Wert   

39

372

12,823

32.1%

66.2%

1.7%

14,510

27.7%

72.3%

2,091

(2.3)

23.5

2.1

2583.0%

Vinton   

20

290

4,799

41.9%

55.8%

2.3%

5,806

45.0%

55.0%

86

29.9

19.2

(0.1)

-1066.2%

Warren   

142

647

67,031

28.0%

70.5%

1.6%

91,922

27.6%

72.4%

12,638

35.5

40.8

12.6

536.6%

Wayne   

100

509

41,097

35.3%

61.9%

2.8%

50,888

38.2%

61.8%

1,080

34.0

23.6

1.1

-1030.6%

 

Williams   

44

406

15,292

34.8%

63.0%

2.2%

17,864

34.9%

65.1%

1,092

17.1

20.8

1.1

369.4%

Wood   

103

590

50,351

43.9%

53.2%

2.9%

60,790

46.4%

53.6%

361

27.7

21.5

(0.4)

-622.9%

Wyandot   

40

263

9,471

34.9%

63.1%

2.0%

10,510

33.8%

66.2%

730

7.5

16.3

0.7

887.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

8,897

443

3,280,744

46.8%

50.7%

2.6%

3,939,246

48.6%

51.4%

14,753

24.7

21.9

(14.8)

-276.6%

Correl

0.995

0.18

1.00

0.44

(0.43)

0.14

1.00

0.45

(0.45)

(0.80)

0.24

(0.04)

(0.80)

(0.26)

 

 

 

 

Ohio 2004 True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

Method:

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout in 2004

Unctd / stuffed

 

Cast

Recorded

Unctd

Alive

Cast

Recorded

Unctd

Died

Gore

Bush

Gore

Bush

 

110.8

105.4

5.4

105.3

125.7

122.3

3.4

6.1

98%

98%

75%

24%

 

-

95.1%

4.9%

95.0%

-

97.3%

2.7%

5.0%

-

-

0%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OH

 

Vote (mil)

 

 

Vote Share (%)

Vote (mil)

 

MoE

2000

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Pct

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

1.7%

DNV

 -

 -

 -

1.14

20.7

59.2

38.8

2.0

0.67

0.44

0.02

1.0%

Gore

2.26

2.19

2.15

2.11

38.4

91.0

9.0

0.0

1.92

0.19

0.00

1.0%

Bush

2.39

2.35

2.27

2.08

37.9

10.0

90.0

0.0

0.21

1.87

0.00

1.6%

Other

0.17

0.17

0.16

0.16

2.9

66.5

12.3

21.2

0.11

0.02

0.03

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exit

4.82

4.71

4.58

5.49

 

53.01

45.96

1.03

2.91

2.52

0.06

 

 

 

 

 

 

State Model

53.60

45.92

0.48

2.94

2.52

0.03

 

 

 

 

 

Electoral Vote

357

181

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

48.71

50.81

0.48

2.74

2.86

0.03

 

Recorded

46.46

49.97

3.57

True – Recorded

4.30

(4.85)

0.55

0.17

(0.34)

0.03

 

 

Cast

47.16

49.33

3.57

Exit Poll

54.01

45.51

0.48

3.04

2.56

0.03

 

ExitP

46.96

49.47

3.51

True - Exit

(1.00)

0.45

0.55

(0.13)

(0.04)

0.03

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

 

Gore voter turnout

 

 

Share of

Kerry Share of Gore

 

 

turnout

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

 

Bush

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

90%

53.6

53.9

54.1

54.4

54.6

 

12%

53.0

53.4

53.8

54.1

54.5

 

92%

53.2

53.5

53.7

54.0

54.2

 

11%

52.6

53.0

53.4

53.8

54.2

 

94%

52.8

53.1

53.3

53.6

53.8

 

10%

52.2

52.6

53.0

53.4

53.8

 

96%

52.4

52.7

52.9

53.2

53.4

 

9%

51.9

52.2

52.6

53.0

53.4

 

98%

52.0

52.3

52.5

52.8

53.0

 

8%

51.5

51.9

52.2

52.6

53.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin  (mil.)

 

 

 

 

 

Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

90%

0.46

0.48

0.51

0.54

0.56

 

12%

0.39

0.43

0.47

0.51

0.55

 

92%

0.41

0.44

0.47

0.49

0.52

 

11%

0.34

0.39

0.43

0.47

0.51

 

94%

0.37

0.40

0.42

0.45

0.48

 

10%

0.30

0.34

0.39

0.43

0.47

 

96%

0.33

0.35

0.38

0.40

0.43

 

9%

0.26

0.30

0.34

0.39

0.43

 

98%

0.28

0.31

0.33

0.36

0.39

 

8%

0.22

0.26

0.30

0.35

0.39

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electoral Vote

 

 

 

 

 

Electoral Vote

 

 

90%

370

370

370

370

370

 

12%

370

370

370

370

370

 

92%

364

370

370

370

370

 

11%

340

370

370

370

370

 

94%

340

340

370

370

370

 

10%

340

340

357

370

370

 

96%

340

340

340

370

370

 

9%

325

340

340

357

370

 

98%

325

340

340

340

357

 

8%

318

325

340

340

346

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MoE

1.04%

0.94%

0.82%

0.68%

0.49%

 

MoE

1.08%

1.04%

0.99%

0.94%

0.88%