Ohio 2000 and 2004 County Recorded Votes, 2004 Exit Poll and True Vote Model

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

On December 14, 2007, Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman reported that the Ohio Secretary of State confirmed that the 2004 election could have been stolen:

“Ohio's Secretary of State announced this morning that a $1.9 million official study shows that "critical security failures" are embedded throughout the voting systems in the state that decided the 2004 election. Those failures, she says, "could impact the integrity of elections in the Buckeye State." They have rendered Ohio's vote counts "vulnerable" to manipulation and theft by "fairly simple techniques." Indeed, she says, "the tools needed to compromise an accurate vote count could be as simple as tampering with the paper audit trail connector or using a magnet and a personal digital assistant." In other words, Ohio's top election official has finally confirmed that the 2004 election could have been easily stolen”.
……

“The final official tally for Bush---less than 119,000 votes out of 5.4 million cast---varied by 6.7% from exit poll results, which showed a Kerry victory. Exit polls in 2004 were designed to have a margin of error of about 1%.

In various stations in Democrat-rich inner city precincts in Youngstown and Columbus, voters who pushed touch screens for Kerry saw Bush's name light up. A wide range of discrepancies on both electronic and paper balloting systems leaned almost uniformly toward the Bush camp. Voting procedures regularly broke down in inner city and campus areas known to be heavily Democratic. In direct violation of standing federal election law, 56 of 88 Ohio counties have since destroyed all or part of their 2004 election data.”

Bush won Ohio by 119,000 recorded votes. According to the Census, there were 143,000 more votes recorded than cast. RFK Jr, in his 2006 Rolling Stone article, provided evidence that approximately 350,000 votes were uncounted. Therefore, assuming the Census and RFK numbers, there had to be 493,000 stuffed votes (493=350+143). Assuming that Kerry had 75% of the 350k uncounted votes and 493k ballots were stuffed for Bush, applying these adjustments to the recorded vote results in a 53% Kerry share, closely matching the unadjusted exit poll (54.4%)

Kerry won the unadjusted (WPE) Ohio Exit Poll by 54.4-45.6% and the 1222am adjusted Composite (1963 respondents) by 52.1-47.9%. Bush won the 2:06pm Final (2020 respondents) by 50.9-49.1%. Vote shares and weights were adjusted to force a match to the recorded Ohio vote. It’s Standard Operating Procedure.

If the 12:22am Ohio exit poll weightings had been used in the Final, it would have been necessary to inflate the Bush vote shares to implausible levels to match the recorded vote. So the weights were adjusted in favor of Bush to minimize the vote share inflation.

First-time Voters

Of the 14% who were first-time voters, 55% were for Kerry. Are we to believe that he won just 47% of the other 86%?

Bush Approval

On Election Day, Bush had an average 48.5% national approval rating (11-polls). In the 12:22am Ohio Exit Poll, the Bush Approval weighting was 51% (Kerry won by 50.1-49.9%). In the Final Ohio Exit Poll, Bush approval was increased to an implausible 53% in order to force a match to the recorded vote (Bush won by 51.6-47.0%).

Using 48% Bush approval, Kerry won by 52.8-47.2%, a 320,000 vote margin.

Approval	Mix		Kerry		Bush
Approve	48%		7%		93%
Disapprove	52%		95%		5%
Total		100%		52.8%		47.2%

Votes

5.64

2.98

2.66

Size of Community

According to the 12:22am Ohio Exit Poll, Kerry won in the Big Cities by 50-49% - but Bush won Big Cities in the Final Exit Poll by 53-43%. Are we supposed to believe that Bush outpolled Kerry by 10% in large, traditionally Democratic urban locations such as Cleveland and Cincinnati?

When Decided

Of the 21% who decided in the month prior to the election, 62% voted for Kerry, compared to just 45% of the 79% who decided earlier. Not plausible. The Final Ohio exit poll had Bush leading in Sept. by an implausible 55-45%. The race was essentially tied in late September.

Using a 50-50 split, Kerry wins by 52.5-47.4%, a 290,000 vote margin.

Decided	Mix	Kerry	Bush
Today	5%	60%	40%
3 Days ago	4%	64%	36%
Week	2%	64%	36%
Month	10%	62%	37%
Before	79%	50%	50%
Total	100%	52.5%	47.5%

Votes

5.64

2.96

2.67%

Party ID

The weights changed from 38D/37R to 35D/40R. With the original weights, Bush needed 17% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. He had 8%. Nationally, the Dems led Party ID by 38-35%.

Using this mix, Kerry wins by 52.3-46.1%, a 350,000 vote margin.

Party ID		Mix		Kerry		Bush
Democrat		38%		91%		8%
Republican		35%		6%		94%
Independent		26%		60%		39%
Total		100%		52.3%		46.1%
Votes	5.64		2.95		2.60

Ideology

Liberal/Conservative mix changed from 21/32 to 19/34.With original weights, Bush needed 23% of Liberals to match the recorded vote. He had 13%.

Voted for Senate

Democratic/Republican weights changed from 43/57 to 36/64, a 16.3% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 14% of those who voted for the Democratic Senate candidate. He had 7%.

Ohio 2004 Exit Poll

12:22am                 Final                  

(1963 respondents) (2020 respondents)

GENDER Mix Votes Kerry Bush Mix Kerry Bush 

Male 47% 2.65 51% 49% 47% 48% 52% 

Female 53% 2.99 53% 47% 53% 50% 50%

Total  100% 5.64 52.1% 47.9% 100% 49.1 50.9% 

RACE/ GENDER                                                                           

White Male 40% 2.25 47% 53% 40% 43% 56%

White Female 45% 2.54 47% 53% 45% 45% 55% 

Non-white Male7% 0.39 75% 25% 7% 73% 27%

Non-white Fem 8% 0.45 82% 18% 8% 82% 18% 

Total 100% 5.64 51.8% 48.2% 100% 49.6% 51.0%

VOTED BEFORE?                                                                         

No 14% 0.79 55% 45% 15% 54% 46%     

Yes 86% 4.85 50% 50% 85% 47% 52%     

Total 100% 5.64 50.7% 49.3% 100% 48.1% 51.1%  

PRATY ID          

Democrat 38% 2.14 91% 8% 35% 90% 9% 

Republican 37% 2.08 6% 94% 40% 6% 94%  

Independent 25% 1.41 60% 39% 25% 59% 40%   

Total 100% 5.64 51.8% 47.6% 100% 48.6% 50.7

DECIDED  Mix Votes Kerry Bush Mix Kerry Bush 

Today 5% 0.28 60% 40% 5% 61% 39%   

3 Days ago 4% 0.23 64% 36% 4% 64% 36% 

Week 2% 0.11 64% 36% 3% 64% 36% 

Month 10% 0.56 62% 37% 10% 61% 36% 

Before 79% 4.45 48% 52% 78% 45% 55%

Total 100% 5.64 51.0% 48.9% 100% 48.7% 50.3%

BUSH APPROVAL

Approve 51% 2.87 7% 93% 53% 7% 93%     

Disapprove 49% 2.76 95% 5% 47% 95% 5%       

Total 100% 5.64 50.1% 49.9% 100% 48.4% 51.6%

COMMUNITY 

Urban 26%  1.47 59% 41% 26% 58% 41%

Suburban 49%  2.76  51% 49%  49% 49% 51%

Rural 25%  1.41 44% 56%  25% 40% 60%

Total 100%   5.64 51.3% 48.7% 100% 48.5% 50.2%

U.S. SENATE      

Democrat     43% 2.42 93% 7%  36% 94% 6% 

Republican    57% 3.21 21% 79% 64% 23% 77%  

Total 100% 5.64 52.0% 48.0% 100% 48.6% 51.4%          

Ohio 2000-2004 Recorded Votes and Margins

													Bush
	2004		2000				2004			Margin	% Change from 2000		Margin	Margin
County	Precincts	Vote/Pct	Total	GORE	BUSH	NADER	Total	KERRY	BUSH	Change	KERRY	BUSH	Change	Change
Recorded	12164	460	4,655,256	47.0%	50.5%	2.5%	5,600,935	48.9%	51.1%	(46,418)	25.4	21.6	(46.4)	(3.76)
Initial			4,526,390	46.8%	50.7%	2.5%	5,455,811	48.7%	51.3%	(39,943)	25.6	21.9	(39.9)	(3.71)
Late			128,866	53.1%	44.3%	2.6%	145,124	56.2%	43.8%	(6,475)	19.1	11.5	(6.5)	(7.54)
DRE	1615	532	692,276	49.1%	48.2%	2.6%	858,672	52.6%	47.4%	(38,932)	32.9	21.8	(38.9)	(11.04)
SCAN	986	667	553,370	43.8%	53.9%	2.3%	657,893	44.7%	55.3%	13,742	21.3	21.9	13.7	0.59
PUNCH	8897	443	3,280,744	46.8%	50.7%	2.6%	3,939,246	48.6%	51.4%	(14,753)	24.7	21.9	(14.8)	(2.77)
DRE 2004
Auglaize	43	515	18,936	28.2%	69.9%	1.9%	22,166	25.8%	74.2%	2,822	7.1	24.2	2.8	17.07
Franklin	760	671	399,526	49.1%	48.3%	2.6%	509,769	54.1%	45.9%	38,286	40.5	21.3	(38.3)	(19.19)
Knox	51	515	20,460	34.0%	63.8%	2.2%	26,290	36.6%	63.4%	979	38.0	27.8	1.0	(10.23)
Lake	217	544	99,053	45.9%	51.0%	3.1%	118,086	48.7%	51.3%	1,935	26.5	20.0	(1.9)	(6.49)
Mahoning	416	311	111,703	61.2%	35.8%	2.9%	129,468	62.9%	37.1%	5,184	19.2	19.8	(5.2)	0.63
Pickaway	52	428	17,291	37.5%	61.0%	1.6%	22,252	37.7%	62.3%	1,411	29.5	31.5	1.4	2.00
Ross	76	403	25,307	45.3%	53.1%	1.6%	30,641	44.7%	55.3%	1,261	19.6	26.1	1.3	6.50
Total	1615	532	692,276	49.1%	48.2%	2.6%	858,672	52.6%	47.4%	38,932	32.9	21.8	(38.9)	(11.04)
Correlation	0.96	0.62	1.000	0.468	(0.477)	0.482	1.000	0.54	(0.54)	(0.99)	0.53	(0.51)	(0.99)	(0.71)
SCAN
Allen	173	274	42,098	32.2%	66.1%	1.7%	47,451	33.3%	66.7%	1,526	16.8	13.7	1.5	(3.16)
Ashland	65	372	20,145	32.2%	65.1%	2.7%	24,171	34.5%	65.5%	855	28.7	20.7	0.9	(7.98)
Clermont	191	456	67,775	30.1%	68.0%	1.9%	87,012	29.1%	70.9%	10,694	24.0	33.8	10.7	9.83
Coshocton	43	369	13,933	39.6%	58.3%	2.1%	15,884	42.6%	57.4%	243	22.5	12.3	(0.2)	(10.20)
Erie	101	383	33,967	51.0%	46.5%	2.5%	38,671	53.4%	46.6%	1,115	19.3	14.1	(1.1)	(5.21)
Geauga	93	533	41,455	36.4%	60.3%	3.3%	49,528	39.5%	60.5%	478	29.7	19.9	0.5	(9.87)
Hancock	67	512	29,650	28.9%	69.2%	1.9%	34,275	29.0%	71.0%	2,466	16.0	18.7	2.5	2.73
Hardin	39	331	10,797	37.9%	60.1%	2.1%	12,910	36.6%	63.4%	1,066	15.5	26.2	1.1	10.69
Lucas	549	390	181,949	58.1%	39.5%	2.3%	214,279	60.1%	39.9%	9,651	21.9	18.7	(9.7)	(3.14)
Miami	82	611	41,632	36.7%	61.2%	2.1%	50,078	34.0%	66.0%	5,799	11.5	29.6	5.8	18.16
Ottawa	78	291	19,438	47.8%	50.0%	2.2%	22,735	48.0%	52.0%	467	17.5	21.5	0.5	4.01
Sandusky	90	353	24,733	43.7%	54.0%	2.3%	31,733	43.8%	56.2%	1,382	28.6	33.5	1.4	4.93
Washington	81	360	25,798	39.5%	58.4%	2.2%	29,166	41.6%	58.4%	18	19.2	13.1	0.0	(6.10)
Total	986	667	553,370	43.8%	53.9%	2.3%	657,893	44.7%	55.3%	13,742	21.3	21.9	13.7	59.5%
Correlation	0.99	0.12	1.00	0.51	(0.51)	0.03	1.00	0.48	(0.48)	(0.47)	0.1	0.1	(0.47)	(0.01)
PUNCH
Adams	35	333	9,906	35.3%	63.1%	1.6%	11,669	35.9%	64.1%	533	19.9	19.6	0.5	-25.0%
Ashtabula	127	348	38,101	50.9%	46.2%	2.9%	44,166	53.3%	46.7%	1,115	21.3	17.2	(1.1)	-414.4%
Athens	69	395	22,022	53.6%	40.1%	6.3%	27,281	63.7%	36.3%	4,466	47.0	12.4	(4.5)	-3467.7%
Belmont	93	350	28,879	54.5%	43.0%	2.5%	32,531	53.0%	47.0%	1,361	9.5	23.1	1.4	1353.8%
Brown	44	444	16,046	36.7%	61.6%	1.7%	19,538	36.1%	63.9%	1,419	19.9	26.2	1.4	631.2%
Butler	280	575	130,928	34.1%	63.9%	2.0%	160,920	33.7%	66.3%	13,531	21.3	27.6	13.5	622.6%
Carroll	26	528	11,777	41.4%	56.3%	2.3%	13,721	45.1%	54.9%	409	26.9	13.6	(0.4)	-1326.3%
Champaign	50	364	15,110	38.3%	59.4%	2.2%	18,184	37.1%	62.9%	1,488	16.6	27.3	1.5	1066.2%
Clark	112	601	55,762	49.0%	48.7%	2.4%	67,268	48.8%	51.2%	1,787	20.2	26.9	1.8	670.8%
Clinton	36	496	14,592	32.0%	65.8%	2.2%	17,869	29.3%	70.7%	2,440	12.4	31.4	2.4	1903.8%
Columbn	103	467	42,766	47.4%	49.9%	2.8%	48,096	47.6%	52.4%	1,260	13.0	18.3	1.3	525.9%
Crawford	67	318	18,544	35.5%	61.7%	2.8%	21,293	35.8%	64.2%	1,182	15.8	19.4	1.2	360.9%
Cuyahoga	1506	431	542,427	63.0%	34.0%	3.0%	648,886	66.8%	33.2%	60,848	26.9	16.7	(60.8)	-1012.8%
Darke	53	482	22,517	33.6%	64.4%	1.9%	25,532	30.0%	70.0%	3,262	1.3	23.1	3.3	2187.7%
Defiance	46	385	15,659	38.5%	59.3%	2.3%	17,701	37.8%	62.2%	1,075	11.0	18.7	1.1	772.6%
Delaware	111	709	53,595	31.2%	66.7%	2.2%	78,728	33.6%	66.4%	6,719	58.7	46.2	6.7	-1243.9%
Fairfield	118	563	52,783	35.5%	62.4%	2.1%	66,378	36.6%	63.4%	3,527	29.8	27.6	3.5	-214.2%
Fayette	40	287	9,035	36.5%	61.7%	1.8%	11,465	37.0%	63.0%	700	28.7	29.5	0.7	84.1%
Fulton	36	598	18,434	36.3%	61.7%	2.0%	21,541	37.6%	62.4%	667	21.0	18.2	0.7	-275.5%
Gallia	36	375	12,328	38.6%	59.7%	1.7%	13,508	38.4%	61.6%	527	9.0	13.0	0.5	396.0%
Greene	140	544	62,074	38.5%	59.1%	2.4%	76,190	38.5%	61.5%	4,715	22.8	27.7	4.7	490.0%
Guernsey	71	228	14,570	43.6%	53.7%	2.7%	16,167	43.7%	56.3%	552	11.3	16.3	0.6	492.5%
Hamilton	1025	397	359,437	42.6%	54.9%	2.5%	406,595	47.0%	53.0%	19,429	24.6	9.3	(19.4)	-1535.0%
Harrison	24	339	6,896	48.1%	49.1%	2.7%	8,142	47.0%	53.0%	424	15.2	27.4	0.4	1219.7%
Henry	33	448	12,936	33.1%	65.0%	1.9%	14,797	34.0%	66.0%	614	17.5	16.2	0.6	-129.6%
Highland	46	389	15,031	34.8%	63.6%	1.6%	17,883	33.6%	66.4%	1,530	15.0	24.2	1.5	923.4%
Hocking	31	416	10,229	42.8%	54.5%	2.8%	12,886	47.1%	52.9%	442	38.7	22.4	(0.4)	-1625.4%
Holmes	27	404	8,827	23.0%	75.0%	1.9%	10,921	24.0%	76.0%	1,087	29.0	25.3	1.1	-366.6%
Huron	69	361	20,649	38.8%	58.5%	2.7%	24,907	41.6%	58.4%	125	29.2	20.4	0.1	-882.5%
Jackson	40	348	12,120	41.7%	56.5%	1.8%	13,901	39.7%	60.3%	1,068	9.2	22.4	1.1	1317.5%
Jefferson	108	329	32,861	52.3%	45.0%	2.7%	35,561	52.5%	47.5%	589	8.7	14.1	0.6	537.8%
Lawrence	84	322	23,872	46.6%	51.7%	1.7%	27,052	43.9%	56.1%	2,084	6.7	22.9	2.1	1621.5%
Licking	139	557	60,811	37.5%	60.1%	2.4%	77,442	37.9%	62.1%	5,002	28.7	31.6	5.0	288.0%
Logan	52	399	17,871	32.6%	65.0%	2.5%	20,728	32.1%	67.9%	1,646	14.2	21.3	1.6	709.1%
Lorain	246	554	108,011	53.7%	43.4%	2.9%	136,263	56.2%	43.8%	5,578	31.8	27.5	(5.6)	-431.2%
Madison	44	387	14,174	36.4%	61.5%	2.1%	17,011	35.7%	64.3%	1,302	17.7	25.4	1.3	773.5%
Marion	90	314	24,009	42.1%	55.5%	2.4%	28,221	40.7%	59.3%	1,999	13.8	25.5	2.0	1163.6%
Medina	146	570	64,961	40.4%	56.6%	3.0%	83,224	42.9%	57.1%	1,246	36.1	29.2	1.2	-694.6%
Meigs	27	389	9,444	38.0%	59.6%	2.4%	10,490	41.3%	58.7%	214	20.7	9.4	(0.2)	-1127.5%
Mercer	40	499	17,602	28.9%	68.9%	2.2%	19,946	24.7%	75.3%	3,044	(3.1)	23.8	3.0	2689.0%
Monroe	29	260	6,783	52.4%	45.5%	2.2%	7,534	55.3%	44.7%	329	17.3	9.2	(0.3)	-806.0%
Montgomery	643	425	222,888	49.8%	48.2%	2.0%	272,978	50.6%	49.4%	125	24.6	25.5	0.1	95.6%
Morgan	22	296	5,834	38.4%	58.6%	3.0%	6,505	43.2%	56.8%	292	25.3	8.1	(0.3)	-1726.2%
Morrow	36	443	12,498	35.8%	61.8%	2.4%	15,964	35.4%	64.6%	1,405	26.4	33.5	1.4	704.6%
Muskingum	85	446	31,441	41.6%	55.6%	2.7%	37,951	42.3%	57.7%	1,444	22.6	25.2	1.4	255.3%
Noble	27	238	5,832	39.0%	58.3%	2.6%	6,417	40.8%	59.2%	57	15.0	11.7	0.1	-327.3%
Paulding	30	321	8,698	38.3%	59.0%	2.7%	9,618	36.8%	63.2%	732	6.4	18.4	0.7	1203.0%
Perry	46	325	12,499	46.5%	50.8%	2.6%	14,972	48.1%	51.9%	25	23.9	22.2	0.0	-162.3%
Pike	24	510	10,228	47.1%	51.2%	1.7%	12,250	47.9%	52.1%	102	21.7	21.9	0.1	21.5%
Portage	122	615	60,850	50.6%	45.6%	3.8%	74,969	53.2%	46.8%	1,818	29.6	26.3	(1.8)	-330.7%
Preble	46	450	17,648	35.6%	62.2%	2.2%	20,677	34.7%	65.3%	1,649	14.1	23.1	1.6	897.6%
Putnam	51	364	16,984	23.7%	74.8%	1.5%	18,544	23.4%	76.6%	1,170	7.9	11.7	1.2	378.2%
Richland	131	460	50,980	39.4%	58.0%	2.5%	60,309	39.9%	60.1%	2,715	19.6	22.5	2.7	288.7%
Scioto	107	321	30,020	45.7%	52.4%	1.9%	34,376	47.8%	52.2%	524	19.9	14.0	(0.5)	-589.6%
Seneca	73	362	23,706	39.6%	57.7%	2.8%	26,394	40.8%	59.2%	564	14.8	14.3	0.6	-52.1%
Shelby	67	331	19,107	33.9%	64.1%	2.0%	22,162	28.6%	71.4%	3,733	(2.3)	29.3	3.7	3157.1%
Stark	364	500	153,808	47.7%	49.7%	2.6%	182,154	50.7%	49.3%	5,470	25.7	17.5	(5.5)	-817.5%
Summit	624	431	217,232	53.7%	43.6%	2.7%	269,081	56.8%	43.2%	14,599	31.0	22.8	(14.6)	-819.2%
Trumbull	284	372	92,901	60.6%	36.5%	2.9%	105,541	61.9%	38.1%	2,688	16.0	18.7	(2.7)	265.3%
Tuscarawas	81	516	35,814	43.6%	53.5%	2.9%	41,819	44.1%	55.9%	1,344	18.3	21.9	1.3	362.4%
Union	47	471	16,533	29.8%	68.1%	2.0%	22,139	29.6%	70.4%	2,714	32.7	38.4	2.7	570.9%
Van Wert	39	372	12,823	32.1%	66.2%	1.7%	14,510	27.7%	72.3%	2,091	(2.3)	23.5	2.1	2583.0%
Vinton	20	290	4,799	41.9%	55.8%	2.3%	5,806	45.0%	55.0%	86	29.9	19.2	(0.1)	-1066.2%
Warren	142	647	67,031	28.0%	70.5%	1.6%	91,922	27.6%	72.4%	12,638	35.5	40.8	12.6	536.6%
Wayne	100	509	41,097	35.3%	61.9%	2.8%	50,888	38.2%	61.8%	1,080	34.0	23.6	1.1	-1030.6%
Williams	44	406	15,292	34.8%	63.0%	2.2%	17,864	34.9%	65.1%	1,092	17.1	20.8	1.1	369.4%
Wood	103	590	50,351	43.9%	53.2%	2.9%	60,790	46.4%	53.6%	361	27.7	21.5	(0.4)	-622.9%
Wyandot	40	263	9,471	34.9%	63.1%	2.0%	10,510	33.8%	66.2%	730	7.5	16.3	0.7	887.2%
Total	8,897	443	3,280,744	46.8%	50.7%	2.6%	3,939,246	48.6%	51.4%	14,753	24.7	21.9	(14.8)	-276.6%
Correl	0.995	0.18	1.00	0.44	(0.43)	0.14	1.00	0.45	(0.45)	(0.80)	0.24	(0.04)	(0.80)	(0.26)

Ohio 2004 True Vote

	2000	Method:							Turnout in 2004			Unctd / stuffed
	Cast	Recorded	Unctd	Alive	Cast	Recorded	Unctd	Died	Gore	Bush	Gore	Bush
	110.8	105.4	5.4	105.3	125.7	122.3	3.4	6.1	98%	98%	75%	24%
	-	95.1%	4.9%	95.0%	-	97.3%	2.7%	5.0%	-	-	0%	100%
	OH		Vote (mil)				Vote Share (%)			Vote (mil)
MoE	2000	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Pct	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
1.7%	DNV	-	-	-	1.14	20.7	59.2	38.8	2.0	0.67	0.44	0.02
1.0%	Gore	2.26	2.19	2.15	2.11	38.4	91.0	9.0	0.0	1.92	0.19	0.00
1.0%	Bush	2.39	2.35	2.27	2.08	37.9	10.0	90.0	0.0	0.21	1.87	0.00
1.6%	Other	0.17	0.17	0.16	0.16	2.9	66.5	12.3	21.2	0.11	0.02	0.03
	Exit	4.82	4.71	4.58	5.49		53.01	45.96	1.03	2.91	2.52	0.06
					State Model		53.60	45.92	0.48	2.94	2.52	0.03
					Electoral Vote		357	181
	2000	Gore	Bush	Other	Recorded		48.71	50.81	0.48	2.74	2.86	0.03
	Recorded	46.46	49.97	3.57	True – Recorded		4.30	(4.85)	0.55	0.17	(0.34)	0.03
	Cast	47.16	49.33	3.57	Exit Poll		54.01	45.51	0.48	3.04	2.56	0.03
	ExitP	46.96	49.47	3.51	True - Exit		(1.00)	0.45	0.55	(0.13)	(0.04)	0.03

Sensitivity Analysis

Bush		Gore voter turnout				Share of		Kerry Share of Gore
turnout	90%	92%	94%	96%	98%	Bush	89%	90%	91%	92%	93%
		Kerry Share (%)						Kerry Share (%)
90%	53.6	53.9	54.1	54.4	54.6	12%	53.0	53.4	53.8	54.1	54.5
92%	53.2	53.5	53.7	54.0	54.2	11%	52.6	53.0	53.4	53.8	54.2
94%	52.8	53.1	53.3	53.6	53.8	10%	52.2	52.6	53.0	53.4	53.8
96%	52.4	52.7	52.9	53.2	53.4	9%	51.9	52.2	52.6	53.0	53.4
98%	52.0	52.3	52.5	52.8	53.0	8%	51.5	51.9	52.2	52.6	53.0
		Margin (mil.)						Margin (mil.)
90%	0.46	0.48	0.51	0.54	0.56	12%	0.39	0.43	0.47	0.51	0.55
92%	0.41	0.44	0.47	0.49	0.52	11%	0.34	0.39	0.43	0.47	0.51
94%	0.37	0.40	0.42	0.45	0.48	10%	0.30	0.34	0.39	0.43	0.47
96%	0.33	0.35	0.38	0.40	0.43	9%	0.26	0.30	0.34	0.39	0.43
98%	0.28	0.31	0.33	0.36	0.39	8%	0.22	0.26	0.30	0.35	0.39
		Electoral Vote						Electoral Vote
90%	370	370	370	370	370	12%	370	370	370	370	370
92%	364	370	370	370	370	11%	340	370	370	370	370
94%	340	340	370	370	370	10%	340	340	357	370	370
96%	340	340	340	370	370	9%	325	340	340	357	370
98%	325	340	340	340	357	8%	318	325	340	340	346
MoE	1.04%	0.94%	0.82%	0.68%	0.49%	MoE	1.08%	1.04%	0.99%	0.94%	0.88%