Ohio Does Its Magic: Hillary’s 3% Exit Poll Margin Morphs to 10% in the Vote

TruthIsAll

 

Did Republicans and Independents who vote Republican give Hillary her win in Ohio?

 

Ohio just did for HRC what it did for Bush in 2004. Bush's Ohio vote share exceeded his unadjusted exit poll share by 5%.

Clinton's 2-party vote share exceeded her unadjusted (9pm) exit poll share by 3.6% (55.2-51.6%).

 

Clinton won the 2-party vote by a 10.6% margin (55.3-44.7%). But her unadjusted exit poll margin was just 3.4% (51.7-48.3%).

As is always the case, the Final Exit Poll was adjusted to match the vote count.

For comparison, the Unadjusted and Final Exit polls are provided below.

 

The final Zogby Ohio pre-election poll had the race dead even. The poll was confirmed by the unadjusted exit poll, just as it was in New Hampshire and in 2004 in the battleground states. John Zogby must be one awfully frustrated pollster. Since 2000, election fraud has consistently skewed his projections. But he never mentions the F-word.

 

It should be obvious by now to anyone who has analyzed pre and post-election polling data since 2000 that primaries and general elections have been silently screaming election fraud. But the main stream media and the politicians keep blinders on the public while catapulting the misinformation that the pre and post-election polls are wrong and the vote count is correct. They never mention the probability of election fraud as the root cause of the polling discrepancies. Like 9/11, election fraud is a “third-rail” subject not to be openly discussed, much less investigated by the media.

 

Tommy Heinrich was a NY Yankee baseball player who played right field with Joe DiMaggio in center. His nickname was "Old Reliable" because he could always be counted on to deliver in the "clutch". Ohio is "Old Reliable" for the Republicans. It will deliver its phantom votes in the clutch for John McCain just like Diebold's CEO and Secretary of State Blackwell delivered them for Bush in 2004.

 

Stalin said it: It's not who votes. It's who counts.

 

      Clinton Obama  Margin

Vote   55.23  44.77  10.46

EPoll  51.65  48.35   3.30

 

Shift   3.58  -3.58   7.16

 

The probability that the 3.6% shift was due to chance is 1 in 4,436 (assuming a 2% exit poll margin of error).

Assuming a 3% MoE, the probability of the shift is 1 in 103.

 

Calculate the probability of a 3.58% 2-party shift from the unadjusted exit poll to the vote.

Assume a 2-3% margin of error (MoE) range.

 

Use the Excel normal distribution function:

Probability = Normdist (0.5165, 0.5523, MoE/1.96, true)

 

MoE    Prob    1 in

2.0%   0.02%  4,436

2.2%   0.07%  1,403

2.4%   0.17%  578

2.6%   0.35%  287

2.8%   0.61%  164

3.0%   0.97%  103

 

Ohio Primary

March 04, 2008    

1612 Respondents

 

                                               

              Final Exit Poll              9pm Exit poll           

              Mix Clinton Obama          Mix Clinton Obama

Gender                                         

Male          41%    50%    48%           41%    47%    52%

Female        59%    57%    41%           59%    54%    45%

                    54.1%   43.9%                51.1%  47.9%

                                               

Education                                             

No College    62%    58%    40%           63%    55%    44%

College Grad  38%    47%    51%           37%    44%    55%

Total               53.8%   44.2%                50.9%  48.1%

                                               

Education                                             

No H.S.       5%     N/A    N/A           5%     N/A    N/A

H.S. Grad     25%    65%    33%           25%    63%    36%

College       32%    52%    47%           33%    49%    51%

College Grad  22%    50%    50%           22%    45%    55%

Post Grad     16%    42%    53%           15%    42%    56%

Total               50.6%   42.8%                48.1%  46.3%

                                               

Region                                         

Cuyahoga      17%    47%    52%           15%    41%    59%

Northeast     30%    61%    37%           35%    61%    39%

Central       22%    55%    42%           21%    48%    51%

Northwest     10%    54%    43%           11%    44%    55%

Southwest     21%    49%    51%           18%    49%    51%

Total               54.1%   44.2%                51.2%  48.4%

                                               

Income                                         

Under 100k    81%    54%    44%           82%    51%    48%

100k +        19%    50%    50%           18%    46%    54%

Total               53.2%   45.1%                50.1%  49.1%

                                               

Under 50k     44%    56%    42%           44%    53%    46%

$50k +        56%    52%    47%           56%    49%    51%

Total               53.8%   44.8%                50.8%  48.8%

                                               

Income                                         

0- 15k         8%    50%    49%           8%     47%    52%

15-30k        15%    60%    36%           15%    58%    41%

30-50k        21%    55%    43%           21%    51%    48%

50-75k        23%    55%    45%           23%    51%    49%

75-100k       15%    50%    47%           15%    49%    50%

100-150k      11%    55%    45%           11%    51%    49%

150-200k      4%     N/A    N/A           3%     N/A    N/A

200k +        4%     N/A    N/A           4%     N/A    N/A

Total               50.8%   40.7%                48%    45%

                                               

                                 

Party ID                                              

Democrat      69%    56%    42%           69%    53%    46%

Republican    9%     49%    49%           9%     45%    55%

Independent   22%    48%    50%           22%    46%    54%

Total.              53.6%   44.4%                50.7%  48.6%

 

Ideology                                              

Liberal       40%    53%    46%           41%    49%    50%

Moderate      46%    56%    42%           46%    53%    46%

Conservative  14%    48%    48%           13%    46%    53%

Total               53.7%   44.4%                50.5%  48.6%

 

               Final Exit Poll             9pm Exit poll           

              Mix Clinton Obama          Mix Clinton Obama

Race                                           

White         76%    64%    34%           75%    61%    38%

African-Amer  18%    13%    87%           19%    11%    89%

Latino         4%    N/A    N/A           4%     N/A    N/A

Asian         1%    N/A    N/A           1%     N/A    N/A

Other         1%    N/A    N/A           1%     N/A    N/A

Total               51.0%   41.5%                47.8%  45.4%

                                               

Religion                                              

Protestant    56%    55%    43%           56%    52%    48%

Catholic      23%    63%    36%           22%    59%    40%

Jewish         2%    N/A    N/A           2%     N/A    N/A

Other         7%    N/A    N/A           7%     N/A    N/A

None          13%    45%    52%           13%    43%    55%

Total               51.1%   39.1%                47.7%  42.8%

                                               

Sex and Race                                          

White Men     32%    58%    39%           32%    55%    44%

White Women   44%    67%    31%           44%    66%    34%

Black Men     7%     15%    85%           7%     13%    87%

Black Women   11%    12%    88%           11%    9%     91%

Latino Men    1%     N/A    N/A           1%     N/A    N/A

Latino Wom    2%     N/A    N/A           2%     N/A    N/A

All Other     2%     N/A    N/A           2%     N/A    N/A

Total               50.4%   41.8%                48.5%  45.1%

 

Size of Community                                            

Urban         26%    44%    55%           27%    39%    60%

Suburban      63%    56%    42%           64%    54%    46%

Rural         10%    70%    26%           10%    67%    32%

Total               53.7%   43.4%                51.8%  48.8%

                                               

When Decided                                          

Today         12%    54%    43%           11%    52%    46%

Last3 Days    9%     63%    37%           10%    59%    41%

Last Week     9%     54%    43%           9%     51%    48%

Last Month    23%    46%    54%           24%    42%    58%

Before        46%    57%    41%           46%    54%    45%

Total               53.8%   43.6%                51.1%  48.1%

 

Which Candidate Attacked Unfairly?                                        

HRC           24%    8%     91%           26%    7%     93%

Obama          8%    92%    8%            8%     91%    9%

Both          29%    68%    29%           28%    66%    33%

None          35%    67%    32%           34%    65%    34%

Total               52.5%   42.1%                49.7%  45.7%

 

               Final Exit Poll             9pm Exit poll           

              Mix Clinton Obama          Mix Clinton Obama

Age                                            

17-29         16%    35%    61%           16%    32%    67%

30-44         28%    50%    50%           28%    46%    54%

45-59         33%    57%    42%           34%    54%    45%

60+           23%    69%    28%           23%    67%    31%

Total               54.3%   44.1%                51.8%  48.3%

                                               

Age                                            

17-24         7%     29%    70%           7%     24%    75%

25-29         8%     41%    54%           8%     38%    60%

30-39        17%     49%    51%           17%    45%    55%

40-49        21%     52%    48%           22%    48%    52%

50-64        32%     60%    37%           32%    58%    40%

65+          14%     72%    26%           13%    70%    29%

Total                53.8%  43.5%                50.6%  47.4%

 

Debates Important to Your Vote?                                           

Yes         73%      52%    47%           74%    49%    51%

No          18%      55%    38%           18%    54%    43%

                    47.9%   41.2%                46.0%  45.5%

                                               

More Qualified to be Commander in Chief                                          

HRC          60%     87%    11%           57%    86%    13%

Obama        37%     3%     97%           40%    3%     97%

                    53.3%   42.5%                50.2%  46.2%

 

Was Gender of Candidate Important to You?                                               

Yes           17%    60%    40%           17%    57%    43%

No            82%    53%    45%           82%    50%    49%

Total               53.7%   43.7%                50.7%  47.5%

 

Most Important Issue                                         

Economy       59%    55%    43%           58%    52%    47%

Iraq         19%    49%    50%           19%    47%    53%

Health Care   19%    56%    42%           19%    52%    47%

Total               52.4%   42.9%                49.0%  46.3%