Dear Mark,
On July 4 you wrote about the
Daily Kos/ Research 2000 controversy at pollster.com.
You stated that “pollsters and social
scientists never
have the
"discretion" to simply "adjust" the substantive results of
their surveys, within the margin of error or otherwise”.
Mark, you know better than
that. The exit pollsters do it all the time. In fact, it’s standard
operating procedure to force the exit polls to match the recorded vote. The matching process is a stated policy of
the National Election Pool, the mainstream media consortium that funds the exit
pollsters. Unlike the pre-election adjustments made by that minor player R2K,
forcing the exit polls to match the vote serves to camouflage election fraud.
But election analysts were not fooled by it.
You wrote:
By far the most troubling
part of Ali's response comes in these two sentences (left in their original
form including typographical errors):
“Regardless though, to you
so-called polling experts, each sub grouping, gender, race, party ID, etc must
equal the top line number or come pretty darn close. Yes we weight heavily and
I will, using the margin of error adjust the top line and when adjusted under
my discretion as both a pollster and social scientist, therefore all sub groups
must be adjusted as well”.
"Top line" in this
context means the results for the full sample rather than a subgroup, but it
still unclear exactly which "top line numbers" Ali is referring to.
If he means the results of attitude questions -- vote preference horse-race
numbers, favorable ratings, issue questions or possibly even the party
identification question -- he comes close to admitting a practice that every
pollster I know would consider deceptive and unethical. "Scientific"
political surveys are supposed to provide objective measurements of attitudes
and preferences. As such pollsters and social scientists never
have the
"discretion" to simply "adjust" the substantive results of
their surveys, within the margin of error or otherwise. As a
pollster friend put it in an email he sent me a few minutes after reading Ali's
statement: "That's not polling. It's Jeanne Dixon polling."
Pollsters and social
scientists do often adjust their top line demographic results,
and some will weight on attitude measurements like party identification, to
correct for non-response bias (though party weighting continues to be subject
of considerable
debate in the
industry). In either case, however, the adjustment needs to be grounded in
prior empirical evidence -- U.S. census demographic estimates or, perhaps,
previous surveys of the same population -- and not merely the whim of the
researcher.
Mark,
the NEP procedure of matching to the recorded vote is statistically unsound and
contrary to the scientific method, regardless of whether the recorded vote is
fraudulent or fraud-free. That’s not polling. It’s Harry Houdini polling.
In
every election since 1968, the recorded vote has deviated widely from the True
Vote. In the eleven elections, the Republicans won the recorded vote by
49-45%; the Democrats won the True Vote by the reverse: 49-45%.
The very
conservative 3% exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 66 of 238 state
exit polls conducted for the NEP in the five presidential elections
from 1988 to 2004 - and 65
“red-shifted” in favor of the Republican. Approximately six (0.025*238) should
have been exceeded assuming the elections were fair.
The
probability that the margin of error would be exceeded in 65 of the 238
state exit polls for the Republican is calculated using the Excel function
= BINOMDIST
(65,238,0.025,FALSE) = 1 in 43,729,463,568,632,100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000!
The
pollsters “tweaked” each of the 238 unadjusted, pristine exit polls to match
the recorded vote. The mainstream media presented contaminated state
and national exit poll demographics to explain how America voted in every
election!
The true intent of the electorate
has been nullified though a combination of phantom voters and uncounted
votes, the result of electronic vote-switching, ballot stuffing
and spoilage. See the Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008).
To illustrate, the 2004 and
2008 Final National Exit Polls are shown below. In order to force a match to
the recorded vote, the exit pollsters indicated that 110% of living 2000 Bush
voters returned to vote in 2004 and 103% of living Bush 2004 voters returned in
2008. These impossible return voter weightings had the effect of reducing both
Kerry’s and Obama’s margin by 13 million votes. When a feasible turnout was
used, Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million and Obama won by 22 million.
Note the use of preliminary
12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares in the 2004 True Vote Model. They were
used because the Final NEP shares were inflated for Bush (along with the
turnout of returning 2000 Bush voters) in order to match the fraudulent
recorded vote.
The 2008 True Vote assumes
the Final vote shares. Evidently, the
NEP consortium does not want a repeat of the 2004 exit poll controversies and
have decided not to release the 2008 unadjusted and preliminary state and
national exit polls. Why don’t you lobby them for the data? It can’t hurt us,
although it might hurt them.
In June 2006, Robert F. Kennedy,
Jr. wrote Was
the 2004 Election Stolen? in Rolling Stone Magazine. Farhad Manjoo
of Salon immediately attempted to refute the article with this rebuttal . Farhad was himself debunked by many election
researchers, including Bob
Fitrakis, Paul
Lehto, Malcolm
on Daily Kos,
Ron Baiman, Thom Hartmann, Steven Freeman, Michael Collins, Cliff Arnebeck, Mark Crispin Miller and myself.
On the Mystery Pollster
blog, you attempted to defend Farhad: Mystery
Pollster: Is RFK, Jr. Right About Exit Polls?
I recently responded to your arguments with this rebuttal.
The following tables are from the Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008)
|
2004 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Method: Final NEP (Forced
to match) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
95% |
98% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
Cast |
Recorded |
Alive |
Voted |
|
Voter |
2004 |
Final National Exit Poll |
|
Voter % |
|
|
|
2000 |
2000 |
2000 |
2004 |
2004 |
|
Turnout |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Turnout |
|
DNV |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
20.8 |
17% |
54% |
45% |
1% |
- |
|
Gore |
48.4% |
55.3 |
51.0 |
48.5 |
47.5 |
|
45.2 |
37 |
90 |
10 |
0 |
93 |
|
Bush |
47.9% |
51.8 |
50.5 |
47.9 |
47.0 |
|
52.6 |
43 |
9 |
91 |
0 |
110 |
|
Other |
3.8% |
4.0 |
4.0 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
|
3.7 |
3 |
71 |
21 |
8 |
98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin |
|
Total |
|
111.2 |
105.4 |
100.1 |
98.1 |
Total |
122.30 |
Share |
48.5% |
51.1% |
0.4% |
-2.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vote |
59.3 |
62.5 |
0.5 |
-3.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
Share |
48.3% |
50.7% |
1.0% |
-2.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vote |
122.3 |
59.0 |
62.0 |
1.2 |
-3.0 |
|
2004 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Method: True
Vote |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
95% |
98% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True Vote |
Cast |
Recorded |
Alive |
Voted |
|
Voter |
2004 |
12::22am National Exit Poll |
|
Voter % |
|
|
|
2000 |
2000 |
2000 |
2004 |
2004 |
|
Turnout |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Turnout |
|
DNV |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
22.6 |
18% |
57% |
41% |
2% |
- |
|
Gore |
50.3% |
55.8 |
51.0 |
53.0 |
51.9 |
|
51.9 |
41 |
91 |
8 |
1 |
98 |
|
Bush |
46.0% |
50.9 |
50.5 |
48.4 |
47.4 |
|
47.4 |
38 |
10 |
90 |
0 |
98 |
|
Other |
3.7% |
4.1 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
|
3.8 |
3 |
64 |
17 |
19 |
98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin |
|
Total |
|
110.8 |
105.4 |
105.3 |
103.2 |
Total |
125.74 |
Share |
53.5% |
45.1% |
1.3% |
8.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vote |
67.3 |
56.7 |
1.7 |
10.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
Share |
48.3% |
50.7% |
1.0% |
-2.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vote |
122.3 |
59.0 |
62.0 |
1.2 |
-3.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Error |
-10.9% |
|
2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
95% |
97% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
Cast |
Recorded |
Alive |
Voted |
|
Voter |
2008 |
Final National Exit Poll |
|
Voter % |
|
|
|
2004 |
2004 |
2004 |
2008 |
2008 |
|
Turnout |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Turnout |
|
DNV |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
17.1 |
13% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
- |
|
Kerry |
48.3% |
62.2 |
59.0 |
56.1 |
54.4 |
|
48.6 |
37 |
89 |
9 |
2 |
87 |
|
Bush |
50.7% |
63.1 |
62.0 |
58.9 |
57.2 |
|
60.5 |
46 |
17 |
82 |
1 |
103 |
|
Other |
1.0% |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
|
5.3 |
4 |
66 |
26 |
8 |
451 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin |
|
Total |
|
126.5 |
122.3 |
116.2 |
112.7 |
Total |
131.46 |
Share
|
52.6% |
45.6% |
1.8% |
7.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vote |
69.2 |
59.9 |
2.3 |
9.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
Share |
52.9% |
45.6% |
1.5% |
7.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vote |
131.5 |
69.5 |
60.0 |
2.0 |
9.6 |
|
2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Method: True Vote |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
95% |
97% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True Vote |
Cast |
Recorded |
Alive |
Voted |
|
Voter |
2008 |
Final National Exit Poll |
|
Voter % |
|
|
|
2004 |
2004 |
2004 |
2008 |
2008 |
|
Turnout |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Turnout |
|
DNV |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
16.4 |
12% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
- |
|
Kerry |
53.5% |
67.3 |
59.0 |
63.9 |
62.0 |
|
62.0 |
47 |
89 |
9 |
2 |
97 |
|
Bush |
45.1% |
56.7 |
62.0 |
53.9 |
52.3 |
|
52.3 |
40 |
17 |
82 |
1 |
97 |
|
Other |
1.3% |
1.7 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
|
1.6 |
1 |
66 |
26 |
8 |
97 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin |
|
Total |
|
125.7 |
122.3 |
119.4 |
115.9 |
Total |
132.31 |
Share |
58.0% |
40.3% |
1.7% |
17.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vote |
76.8 |
53.3 |
2.2 |
23.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
Share |
52.9% |
45.6% |
1.5% |
7.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vote |
131.5 |
69.5 |
60.0 |
2.0 |
9.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Diff |
|
|
|
Error |
-10.5% |