You have labeled discussions of election fraud a "conspiracy theory" and at one time banned those who posted on this topic. Thousands of Kossacks believe that the 2004 election was stolen and you still call these very astute posters “conspiracy theorists”. You claim there is no “proof” the election was stolen despite tons of inferential and descriptive statistical evidence that have accumulated over six years.
You do not consider exit poll anomalies to be sufficient “proof” of election fraud. But they are powerful circumstantial evidence beyond a reasonable doubt. The raw, precinct exit poll data that would strengthen the case even further is kept from public view (as always) by the National Election Pool consortium (CNN, Fox, NBC, AP, ABC, NY Times, Washington Post) that sponsors the exit polls.
Are you aware the National Election Pool (NEP) has a stated policy that exit pollsters must force all state and national exit polls to match the recorded vote? The NEP claims it won’t release the raw precinct data because of the need to maintain “voter confidentiality”. That is a transparent canard; the exit poll respondents do not reveal names, so there is no confidentiality issue.
You have been critical of Research 2000, claiming they have been fraudulent and “without full transparency of results”, this fraud would not have been uncovered. Inquiring minds want to know why you now seek full transparency from Research 2000, yet have never called on the NEP to release raw precinct data. You have often stated that Daily Kos does "not allow conspiracy theories" due to "lack of proof", yet you give the NEP a permanent pass.
In addition, you completely ignore compelling testimony from computer security experts and programmers on how Ohio’s votes were routed to remote, vulnerable servers in Tennessee. You must be unaware of the conviction of election officials for miscounting votes in Kentucky, rigging recounts in Ohio and robo-calling in New Hampshire.
In Dec. 2004, Kos poster Georgia-10 wrote this comprehensive compilation of election facts and anomalies:
Georgia-10 quoted from a Democratic Underground post in which I listed thirteen implausible anomalies one had to accept to believe Bush won fairly:
Georgia-10 also mentioned this probability calculation of mine:
“What are the chances that the exit polls would be outside the margin of error in 16 out of 51 states polled?
One number-cruncher puts the odds at 1 out of 4.5 BILLION”.”
The probability turned out to be much lower than that. There was a minor input error in the Excel Binomial distribution function.
The probability was 1 in 19 trillion!
The Excel probability function =1-BINOMDIST (15,50,0.025,TRUE)
But the calculation turned out to be too conservative.
At 12:40 am the “composite” state exit polls used in the calculation were in the process of being forced to match to a corrupt recorded vote count.
In fact, 29 unadjusted state exit polls exceeded the margin of error, all in favor of Bush.
The probability is as close to absolute zero as you can get!
The 2004 Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS) stated that there were 86 touchscreen incidents reported in which the vote switched from Kerry to Bush and just 2 in which a Bush vote switched to Kerry. Non-biased voting machines would normally show a nearly even (44/44) split.
The probability of an 86-2 split is 1 in 79,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.
That is 1 in 79 sextillion or 1 in 79 billion trillion!
In the five presidential elections from 1988 to 2004, there were 238 state exit polls of which 66 exceeded the conservative 3% margin of error.
Of the 66 states in which the MoE was exceeded, 65 were in favor of the Republican!
At the 95% confidence level, one would expect that the MoE would be exceeded in about 12 states.
The probability that the margin of error would be exceeded in 65 of the 238 state exit polls for the Republican is calculated using the Excel function
= BINOMDIST (65,238,0.025,FALSE) = 1 in 43,729,463,568,632,100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000!
In Sept. 2006, I posted statistical evidence of election fraud at Daily Kos. You banned me after just two weeks as a member. You called my diaries "crap" on the front page of your site without mentioning my name. At least you have not deleted my posts. Thanks for that.
Do you still believe that there is no “proof” that the election was stolen? Go to my site richardcharnin.com.
You have often said that election fraud researchers are not part of the "reality-based community". But you appear to be part of the unscientific, “faith-based” community of Democratic politicians and a media that avoids discussing the “third rail” subject of election fraud at all costs. The facts of the 2004 election theft have been revealed in spades over the last six years and your head remains buried in the sand.
Markos, do you also believe in global cooling?