How Operation Chaos Caused Obama to Lose Indiana and Vote Shares Everywhere Else

TruthIsAll

 

The latest media myth is that Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos had no effect on the Indiana primary. Their argument is that the Clinton-Obama (53-47) share of the 10% Republican crossover vote is virtually the same as the (51-49) split in the total vote. This analysis will show that were it not for Operation Chaos, Obama would have won Indiana and very possibly Texas. 

 

Well, at least the bloggers get it.

 

The media fails to recognize that since March 4, there have been two sets of Republican crossover voters. The first set consists of moderates who were sincerely for Obama. The second set was motivated to vote for Hillary Clinton by Operation Chaos.

 

Prior to March 4, Obama led the total vote by 50.1-45.7%. Since then, Clinton is leading by 50.8-47.8%.

 

Prior to March 4 (pre Operation Chaos), Republicans voted in seven primaries. Obama won the Republican vote by 59-28%. He won all 7 primaries by an average 58-37% share. In sharp contrast, post-March 4 Clinton has won Republicans by 57-41%. Obama still won the total average vote by 51-47%, but it would have been 53-45% were it not for Operation Chaos.

 

Final Exit poll data shows that Operation Chaos has increased the percentage of Republican crossover voters from 6% to 9%. The increase has been almost totally to Clinton's benefit.  Of 4 million Clinton voters since March 4, approximately 150,000 have been Republican crossovers due to Operation Chaos.

 

Republican Share of Democratic Primary Vote: Pre vs. Post March 4 (Operation Chaos)

 

Final Exit Polls                                                          

Pre March 4

              Total Share          Share of Rep         Difference   

       Rep%   HRC    OB            HRC    OB            HRC    OB

AL     5%     42%    56%           52%    45%           10%    -11%

SC     4%     27%    53%           20%    37%           -7%    -16%

IL     6%     34%    65%           36%    60%           2%     -5%

MO     6%     49%    48%           21%    75%           -28%   27%

LA     5%     37%    56%           17%    53%           -20%   -3%

VA     7%     35%    64%           23%    72%           -12%   8%

WI     9%     40%    57%           28%    72%           -12%   15%

 

Avg    6%     38%    57%           28%    59%           -10%   2%

                                                             

Post March 4

OH     9%     54%    44%           49%    49%           -5%    5%

TX     9%     51%    47%           46%    53%           -5%    6%

MS     12%    38%    60%           75%    25%           37%    -35%

IN     10%    50.6%  49.4%         53%    47%           3%     -3%

NC     5%     42%    56%           61%    32%           19%    -24%

 

Avg    9%     47%    51%           57%    41%           10%    -10%

 

__________________________________________________________

 

PARTY ID

Pre March 4

 

AL            HRC    OB     JE                               

Dem    82%    40%    58%    1%                               

Rep    5%     52%    45%    3%                               

Ind    13%    48%    48%    3%                               

Total         41.6%  56.1%  1.4%                             

 

 

SC

Dem    73%    28%    57%    14%                              

Rep    4%     20%    37%    43%                              

Ind    23%    26%    42%    32%                              

Total         27.2%  52.8%  19.3%                            

 

 

IL

Dem    79%    36%    63%    1%                               

Rep    6%     36%    60%    4%                               

Ind    16%    22%    72%    4%                               

Total         34.1%  64.9%  1.7%                             

 

 

MO

Dem    73%    50%    47%    2%                               

Rep    6%     21%    75%    4%                               

Ind    22%    30%    67%    2%                               

Total         44.4%  53.6%  2.1%                             

 

 

LA            HRC    OB                                      

Dem    83%    38%    57%                                     

Rep    5%     17%    53%                                     

Ind    12%    36%    53%                                     

Total         36.7%  56.3%                                   

 

 

VA

Dem    70%    38%    62%                                     

Rep    7%     23%    72%                                     

Ind    22%    30%    69%                                     

Total         34.8%  63.6%                                   

 

 

WI

Dem    62%    46%    53%                                     

Rep    9%     28%    72%                                     

Ind    28%    33%    64%                                     

Total         40.3%  57.3%                                   

 

__________________________________________________________

 

Party ID

Post March 4 (Operation Chaos)                                                          

 

OH            HRC    OB                                      

Dem    69%    56%    42%                                     

Rep    9%     49%    49%                                     

Ind    22%    48%    50%                                     

Total         53.6%  44.4%                                   

 

 

TX

Dem    66%    53%    46%                                     

Rep    9%     46%    53%                                     

Ind    25%    48%    49%                                     

Total         51.1%  47.4%                                   

 

 

MS

Dem    71%    30%    67%                                     

Rep    12%    75%    25%                                     

Ind    17%    43%    53%                                     

Total         37.6%  59.6%                                   

 

 

IN

Dem    67%    51%    49%                                     

Rep    10%    53%    47%                                     

Ind    23%    46%    54%                                     

Total         50.1%  49.1%                                   

 

 

NC

Dem    76%    39%    60%                                     

Rep    5%     61%    32%                                     

Ind    19%    50%    45%                                     

Total         42.2%  55.8%