Oregon Vote by Mail: Statistical Evidence that it Works

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

Sept. 29, 2011

 

This statistical analysis of Oregon’s voting history provides evidence that the vote-by-mail system introduced in 1998 has been a success. In 2000, it closely matched the national recorded vote, as expected. In 2004, Kerry’s recorded vote share in Oregon was close to the pre-election poll and the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate (52-47%). But it was 3% higher than his recorded national and average battleground shares.

 

Bush improved on his 2000 recorded vote share not only in the battleground states, but also in solidly Democratic New York. But Oregon went against the grain and shifted from Gore to Kerry.  Kerry won Oregon by 51.4-47.2%. His margin improved by 3.7% over Gore, primarily from his 65-13% edge in returning Nader voters and 59-39% margin in new voters. The pre-election National, Oregon and Battleground polls, adjusted for undecided voters, projected that Kerry would win by 51-48%. Post-election state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry won by 3-7%. The True Vote model indicates that he won by 53.3-45.7% (nearly 10 million votes) assuming a zero net defection of returning Gore and Bush voters.

 

Did Oregon’s mail-in system miscount the votes?  To believe it did, you must also believe that Bush did in fact win an honest election and that the national and state exit polls that indicated Kerry won were wrong. But what if the exit polls were correct and votes were miscounted in the other non-paper ballot states that used electronic voting machines, punched cards or levers? Then one would then have to conclude that Oregon’s vote-by-mail system worked – and that the others did not.

 

1988-2008 Vote Shares

 

 

 

National

 

 

State Exit

 

 

Oregon

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Dem 2-party  share

Recorded

 

Aggregate

 

 

Recorded

 

 

Post-election survey

 

National

Oregon

Dem

Rep

Other

Dem

Rep

Other

Dem

Rep

Other

Dem

Rep

Other

2008

53.7

58.4

52.9

45.6

1.5

57.9

40.2

1.9

56.7

40.4

2.9

58.4

38.6

3.0

2004

48.8

52.1

48.3

50.7

1.0

52.0

47.0

1.0

51.3

47.2

1.5

52.2

46.3

1.5

2000

50.3

50.2

48.4

47.9

3.7

49.4

46.9

3.7

47.0

46.5

6.5

47.8

45.9

6.3

1996

54.7

54.7

49.2

40.7

10.1

50.2

39.8

10.0

47.2

39.1

13.7

48.4

37.9

13.7

1992

53.5

56.7

43.0

37.4

19.6

45.7

34.8

19.5

42.5

32.5

25.0

49.3

25.7

25.0

1988

46.0

52.4

45.6

53.4

1.0

50.0

49.0

1.0

51.3

46.6

2.1

55.0

42.9

2.1

 

Note:

Oregon post-election: 1988-1996 unadjusted exit polls; 2000-2008 telephone surveys.

Unadjusted state and national exit polls are funded by the National Election Pool media consortium.

 

In 1988 VP Bush was the de-facto incumbent.

Dukakis led by 55.0-42.9% in the Oregon exit poll. He won the state recorded vote 51.3-46.6%.

He won the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 50.0-49.0%

Bush won the national recorded vote by 53.4-45.6%.

 

In 1992 Bush was the incumbent.

Clinton led Bush by 49.3-25.7% in the Oregon exit poll. He won the state recorded vote by just 42.5-32.5%.

He led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 45.7-34.8%.

He won the national recorded vote by 43.0-37.4%.

 

In 1996, Clinton was the incumbent.

He led by 48.4-37.9% in the Oregon exit poll. He won the state by nearly the same margin: 47.2-39.1%.

He led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 50.2-39.8%.

He won the national recorded vote by nearly the same margin: 49.2-40.7%.

His 54.7% two-party Oregon share exactly matched the National recorded share.

 

In 2000, Clinton was the incumbent.

Gore won Oregon by 47.0-46.5%

Gore would have won Oregon by 51-47% were it not for Nader.

He led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 49.4-46.9%.

He won nationally by nearly the same margin (48.4-47.9%) and had a 48.3% Battleground share.

The National True Vote Model indicates that he won by nearly the same 50-47%.

 

In 2004, Bush was the incumbent.

Kerry led the Oregon pre-election poll by 50-44% and was projected to win by 53.7-45.3%.

He won the state by 51.3-47.2%, a 3.6% improvement over Gore.

Kerry led the weighted aggregate state pre-election polls by 48-47% and projected to win by 51-48%.

He won the unadjusted ste exit polls national aggregate  by 52.0-47.0%. But he lost to Bush by a 50.7-48.3% recorded vote margin.

True Vote Model: Kerry had a 53.3% national share and won by nearly 10 million votes.

 

In 2008, McCain was the de-facto incumbent.

Obama led by 56-39% in the Oregon pre-election poll. He won Oregon by 56.7-40.4%.

He had 58.4% in the post-election survey. The True Vote model indicates that he won by 56.0-42.8%.

But he won nationally by just 52.9-45.6% and a 9.5 million recorded vote margin.

He had 57.9% in the unadjusted state aggregate exit poll.

Obama had a 58% True Vote share and won by 22 million votes.

The three-way match is powerful confirming evidence that the vote-by-mail system worked.

 

 

Analysis Summary

 

 

Recorded

National

Oregon

Battleground

Gore

48.38%

46.96%

47.82%

Kerry

48.27%

51.35%

50.58%

Swing

-0.11%

4.39%

2.76%

 

 

 

 

Kerry

 

 

 

Pre-elect

51.05%

53.33%

51.83%

Exit Poll

51.97%

52.20%

53.01%

True Vote

53.26%

53.00%

52.71%

 

Deviations

 

 

 

Exit-Rec

3.70%

0.85%

2.43%

True-Rec

4.99%

1.65%

2.13%

 

 

 

 

True-Pre

2.21%

-0.33%

0.89%

True-Exit

1.29%

0.80%

-0.29%

 

The National, Oregon and Battleground pre-election projection and post-election exit poll shares closely match.

This confirms that Oregon is representative of the National and Battleground electorate.

Therefore, we must conclude that the election was stolen in the Battleground states and Oregon’s vote by mail system is virtually fraud-proof.

 

True Vote Methodology

 

The analysis tables provide a reasonable approximation of the National, Oregon and Battleground True Vote shares.

Given 2000 and 2004 votes recorded and cast, the True Vote calculation assumes:

1. Kerry and Gore had 75% of the uncounted (cast - recorded) votes

2. Annual 1.25% voter mortality (5% in the four years between elections)

3. Equal 98% turnout of returning 2000 voters in 2004.

4. Equal Gore and Bush returning voter defection rates (they cancel each other). 

5. Kerry won returning Nader voters by 65-13% over Bush based on the National Exit Poll.

6. New 2004 voters is the difference between 2004 votes cast and returning 2000 voters.

7. Kerry won new voters by 59-39% nationally. His DNV share in each state is calculated as:

    State DNV share = 0.59* (1+state exit poll share - 0.5197)*new voters, where .5197 is Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (national) share.

For instance, in NY, Kerry’s share of 1347k DNV is 894k = 0.59*(1+.645-0.5197).

 

A simplifying assumption is that there was zero net defection of returning Gore and Bush voters (they cancelled each other). However the 12:22am National Exit Poll of 13,047 respondents indicates that 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry and only 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. The 2004 True Vote analysis shown below indicates that he had a 53.7% national share assuming a net 2% defection as opposed to his 53.3% assuming zero net defection. See the Recursive True Vote Model.

 

Kerry True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

Two groups of three tables display the effect of various model input assumptions on Kerry’s vote share. The margin of error is less than 1.5%.

 

-New Voters and returning Nader/other voters

Three tables display Kerry’s National, Oregon and Battleground True Vote shares over a 54-63% range of new voters and 61-69% of returning Nader/other voters.

Kerry wins all worst case scenarios (54% of new voters and 61% of returning Nader voters).

 

-Returning Gore and Bush Voter Turnout

Three tables display Kerry’s National, Oregon and Battleground vote shares for 91-99% turnout of living former Gore and Bush voters.

Kerry wins all worst case turnout scenarios (91% of living Gore voters and 99% of living Bush voters).

 

Oregon vs. New York and California

 

National

In 2000, Gore won the recorded vote by 48.4-47.9%.

In 2004, although returning Nader voters broke heavily for Kerry by 65-13% and new voters by 59-39%, Bush won by 50.7-48.3%.That is not plausible.

 

Oregon

Gore won by 47.0-46.5%.

With returning Nader and new voters breaking for Kerry, his recorded vote-count margin increased to 51.4-47.2%. That is plausible.

Kerry led by 52.2-46.3% in the exit pollster telephone poll. That is plausible.

 

New York

Gore won by 60.2-35.2%.

Although returning Nader and new voters broke heavily for Kerry, his recorded vote-count margin declined to 58.4-40.1%. That is not plausible.

Kerry led by 64.5-34.0% in the exit poll. That is plausible.

 

California

Gore won by 53.4-41.6%.

Although returning Nader and new voters broke heavily for Kerry, his recorded vote-count margin declined to 54.3-44.1%. That is not plausible.

Kerry led by 60.1-38.6% in the exit poll. That is plausible.

 

Why did Kerry’s margin increase in Oregon, a battleground state, and decline in strongly Democratic California and New York?

Why was the exit poll so far off in California (11.6 WPE)? It voted 29% on DRE touch screens, 66% on optical scanners and 4% on punch cards.

Why was the exit poll so far off in New York (12.2 WPE)? It voted exclusively on lever machines.

Why were the exit polls so far off (7.5 WPE) in the Battleground states? They voted on machines (see the chart below).

 

Florida and Ohio

 

In Florida 2000, there were approximately 185,000 spoiled punch cards (under-punched and over-punched).

According to the Census, 43,000 more votes were cast than recorded.

Where did the 142,000 extra votes come from?

Bush won Florida by 537 votes.

 

In Florida 2004, approximately 238,000 more votes were recorded than cast.

How many were uncounted?

Bush won by 380,000 votes.

 

In Ohio 2004, according to the Census, 143,000 more votes were recorded than cast.

Approximately 350,000 were uncounted (see Was the 2004 Election Stolen? by RFK, Jr.)

How many votes were switched?

Bush won by 119,000 votes.

 

Oregon’s Pre-Election Polls Uniquely Matched the Recorded and True Vote

 

Final-week state pre-election polls were virtually all Likely Voter (LV) subsets of the full Registered Voter (RV) samples. Likely Voter subsets largely exclude "new" voters: first-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election. The Democrats won ‘new voters’ by an average 14% margin (before Obama’s whopping 44%). Projections that ignore RV polls and focus solely on LV polls will inevitably underestimate the Democratic share, especially in heavy-turnout elections such as record-setting 2004 and 2008. In 2004, the LV polls understated voter turnout by 6%. Gross underestimates would be expected from political sites by displaying only LV polls and failing to allocate undecided voters.

 

Mainstream pollsters allocated undecided voters to Kerry by 2:1-to-4:1. Kerry’s projected national LV poll share was 1-2% lower than the projected RV share. In New York and California the pre-election poll projections were a virtual match to the recorded vote-count share but 5-6% below Kerry’s exit poll and True Vote shares. The same LV/RV mismatch occurred in 2008. Obama had 53% based on LV polls but a 57% projected share based on RV national polls after allocating undecided voters.

In Oregon, voting by mail results in high turnout and the pre-election polls are RVs by definition. Kerry led by 50-44% in the final poll. After undecided voter allocation (UVA), he was projected to win by 53-45%. The Oregon projection matched the True Vote Model and was within 1.6% of his recorded share.

In the final weeks prior to the 2004 and 2008 elections, national LV polls were displayed on political websites; many did not allocate undecided voters. By virtue of its vote by mail system, Oregon’s RV pre-election polls undermine the media’s objective of forcing voters into believing bogus vote counts. The media primes voters before the election with LV-only projections. Then it covers up the fraud post-election with final "exit polls" that are always forced to match the counts. In 2008 National Election Pool (NEP) consortium did not release the preliminary national and unadjusted state exit polls. Why not?

 

1988 - 2008: Patterns of Discrepancies Before and After Voting-By-Mail

 

Note: vote shares are two-party to eliminate third-party (Perot/Nader) effects.

 

Before Mail-In Ballots

 

1988 - Bush was Vice President.

Dukakis had 52.4% in Oregon and a 46.0% National share – a very big 6.2% discrepancy.

He did 3.7% better in the exit poll than the recorded vote.

 

1992 - Bush was President.

Clinton had 56.7% in Oregon and a 53.5% National share - a 3.2% discrepancy.

He did a whopping 6.8% better in the exit poll than the recorded vote.

 

1996 - Clinton was President.

Clinton had 54.7% Oregon and a 54.7% National share - a perfect match.

He did 1.2% better in the exit poll than the recorded vote.

 

After Mail-In Ballots

 

2000 - Clinton was President.

Gore had 50.2% in Oregon and a 50.3% National share – a perfect match

 

2004 - Bush was President.

Kerry had 52.1% in Oregon and a 48.8% National share - a 3.3% discrepancy.

 

2008 - Bush was President.

Obama had 58.4% in Oregon and a 53.7% National share - a 4.7% discrepancy.

 

- Is it just a coincidence that when Clinton was the incumbent, there was an exact match between the Oregon and National vote shares?

- Is it just a coincidence that when Bush was the incumbent, there was a 4.4% average discrepancy between the Oregon and National vote shares?

- If the True Vote Model is correct and Oregon reflects the national electorate, then what does this say about our electoral system?

 

Oregon County Vote Change Correlation

 

With the change to mail-in ballots in 1998, there has been a noticeable decline in the volatility of changes in Oregon county vote shares from election to election. Before the switch to mail, there was a 0.93 correlation between 1996 and 2000 county vote share and a 5.0% standard deviation.

 

After the switch to mail, there was a near-perfect 0.98 correlation between 2000 and 2004 county vote shares and a 2.2% standard deviation in percentage vote change. There was an even better 0.99 correlation for 2004 and 2008 and a very low1.5% standard deviation in percentage vote change. The system is getting better and better.

 

The statistical analysis makes intuitive sense. Since the battleground states closely mirror the national electorate as a whole, Oregon’s recorded vote share should have been close to that of the other battleground states, but it was the only one that deviated sharply to Kerry. Oregon’s voting system is transparent. Optically scanned machine counts are verified by random hand-counts. Washington has also recently implemented a mail-in system.

 

Touch screen voting machine precincts avoid paper ballots; votes can be switched locally or at the invisible central tabulators. Optical scanners are a step in the right direction, but the system is ripe for fraud without mandating a random hand-count of selected precincts like they do in Oregon. Punch card machines can void the vote by double and triple-punching after the polls close. As in Florida 2000, election officials are quick to blame “stupid” voters if there are “problems” with the machines.

 

If they use lever machines, as in NY and PA, there are no paper ballots to verify the vote; too few machines can be placed in heavily Democratic precincts; or bad machines that will likely break down will cause voters to leave the polling booth; the levers can be “stuck”, like they were for Bush in 2004; votes can be switched by the central tabulators; lever gears can be shaved. There are many ways to skin the cat.  In NY, Gore, Kerry and Obama each enjoyed a 7% higher late (paper ballot) vote share than they did on Election Day (lever votes).  What does that tell us?

 

Here is an amazing statistic that very few are even aware of: Obama had 52% of the 121 million votes recorded on Election Day and a whopping 59% of the 10 million late (paper ballot) votes. What are the odds of the 7% discrepancy? What is the margin of error in a poll with 10 million respondents?

 

Since Kerry won new voters by 59-39% and returning Nader voters by 65-13%, to believe the recorded vote shares, you must also believe that returning Gore voters defected to Bush at a much higher rate than Bush voters to Kerry. But according to the National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush and 8% of Gore voters defected.

 

The above analysis indicates that Oregon’s mail-in system works just fine. But it would be greatly appreciated if interested readers found flaws in the assumptions, logic or the math and presented contrary statistical and/or anecdotal evidence. The analysis can then be forwarded to Oregon’s election officials who may then decide to scrap vote by mail and convert to HAVA-compliant DREs, Optical scanners, Punch cards or Levers. Advise them to recount only those elections in which the vote shares differ by less than .001%.

 

If you believe the recorded 2004 vote was accurate in the battleground states, then you must also believe that…

1- Bush won a fair election.

2- The electronic and mechanical voting machines accurately counted the votes.

3- There was little or no fraud.

4- Election reform efforts are meaningless.

5- There is nothing wrong with our national voting system.

6- Oregon’s voting system was rigged for Kerry since it was the only battleground state he won that shifted sharply to him from Gore.

7- Pre-election state and national polls that projected Kerry would win by 51-48% after undecided voters were allocated were wrong.

8- Unadjusted and preliminary state and national exit polls that had Kerry winning by 5-7% were wrong.

9- The Oregon telephone survey that showed Kerry winning a 52.3% share was wrong.

10- Either returning Nader voters defected to Bush and/or he won a majority of new voters and/or more returning Gore voters than Bush voters defected.

11 -The National Exit Poll which had Kerry winning returning Nader voters by 65-13% and new voters by 59-39% were wrong.

12- The Oregon vote must have been padded for Kerry (51.4%) and Obama (56.7%).

13- Election officials in Florida, Ohio, NY and other states did a great job in making sure that the voting machines were not tampered with.

14- A problem with vote by mail is the elimination of exit polls. Oregon needs exit polls even though they are usually wrong.  

15- The True Vote Model is flawed since it closely matched the unadjusted National, Oregon and Battleground exit polls.

16- There is nothing wrong with the standard policy of forcing final state and national exit polls to match the recorded vote.

17- Final 1992, 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were correct: there were millions more returning Bush voters from the prior election than were alive.

 

If you believe that vote-by-mail systems are vulnerable to election official fraud or voter fraud, then lobby state officials to stop the vote-by-mail trend. Otherwise, fraud-free HAVA-compliant voting systems now working just fine in all the other states will become clones of Oregon and Washington.

 

Those opposed to mail-in voting cite advantages in voting at the precinct: voters can get to see friends and make new ones, take time off from work, project a patriotic image by voting in full view, look smart by touching the computer screen, exercise their legs while waiting to vote and get some cheap coffee.

 

 

2004 True Vote Summary

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

Recorded

Dem

Bush

Other

Dem

Bush

Other

Margin

 

 

 

2000

110,826

105,421

51,004

50,456

3,961

48.38%

47.86%

3.76%

0.52%

 

 

 

2004

125,736

122,295

59,027

62,040

1,228

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

-2.46%

 

 

 

Change

14,910

16,874

8,023

11,584

-2,733

-0.12%

2.87%

-2.75%

-2.98%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zero net defection of returning Gore and Bush voters

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

98% turnout of living 2000 voters

 

 

Recorded

National

Oregon

Battleground

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gore

48.38%

46.96%

47.82%

 

 

 

 

Voter mortality (4yr)

5%

 

 

Kerry

48.27%

51.35%

50.58%

 

 

 

 

Alive

105,285

95%

 

 

Swing

-0.11%

4.39%

2.76%

 

 

 

 

Returning

103,179

98%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DNV 2k

22,557

17.9%

 

 

Kerry

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pre-elect

51.05%

53.33%

51.83%

 

 

 

 

Voted 2k

 Kerry

 Bush

Other

 

Exit Poll

51.97%

52.20%

53.01%

 

 

 

 

Nader

65%

13%

22%

 

True Vote

53.26%

53.00%

52.71%

 

 

 

 

DNV

59%

39%

2%

 

Deviations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Undecided Voter Allocation

 

 

Exit-Rec

3.70%

0.85%

2.43%

 

 

 

 

UVA

75%

25%

 

 

True-Rec

4.99%

1.65%

2.13%

 

 

 

 

Turnout

98%

98%

98%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True-Pre

2.21%

-0.33%

0.89%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True-Exit

1.29%

0.80%

-0.29%

 

 

 

 

Kerry True Vote Share Sensitivity

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share of

National

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

National

 

 

 

 

Nader

Share of DNV

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout

Gore Voter Turnout

 

 

 

53.26%

54%

57%

59%

61%

63%

 

53.26%

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

69%

52.5%

53.0%

53.4%

53.7%

54.1%

 

95%

53.4%

53.6%

53.8%

54.0%

54.1%

67%

52.4%

53.0%

53.3%

53.7%

54.0%

 

96%

53.2%

53.4%

53.6%

53.7%

53.9%

65%

52.4%

52.9%

53.3%

53.6%

54.0%

 

97%

53.0%

53.1%

53.3%

53.5%

53.7%

63%

52.3%

52.8%

53.2%

53.6%

53.9%

 

98%

52.7%

52.9%

53.1%

53.3%

53.4%

61%

52.2%

52.8%

53.1%

53.5%

53.9%

 

99%

52.5%

52.7%

52.9%

53.0%

53.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oregon

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oregon

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

53.00%

54%

57%

59%

61%

63%

 

53.00%

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

69%

52.1%

52.8%

53.2%

53.6%

54.1%

 

95%

53.2%

53.4%

53.5%

53.7%

53.8%

67%

52.0%

52.7%

53.1%

53.5%

54.0%

 

96%

53.0%

53.1%

53.3%

53.4%

53.6%

65%

51.9%

52.6%

53.0%

53.4%

53.9%

 

97%

52.8%

52.9%

53.1%

53.2%

53.4%

63%

51.8%

52.5%

52.9%

53.3%

53.8%

 

98%

52.5%

52.7%

52.8%

53.0%

53.2%

61%

51.7%

52.4%

52.8%

53.2%

53.7%

 

99%

52.3%

52.5%

52.6%

52.8%

52.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Battleground

 

 

 

 

 

 

Battleground

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

52.71%

54%

57%

59%

61%

63%

 

52.71%

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

69%

51.8%

52.4%

52.8%

53.2%

53.6%

 

95%

52.9%

53.1%

53.2%

53.4%

53.6%

67%

51.7%

52.4%

52.8%

53.2%

53.6%

 

96%

52.7%

52.9%

53.0%

53.2%

53.3%

65%

51.7%

52.3%

52.7%

53.1%

53.5%

 

97%

52.5%

52.6%

52.8%

52.9%

53.1%

63%

51.6%

52.2%

52.7%

53.1%

53.5%

 

98%

52.2%

52.4%

52.6%

52.7%

52.9%

61%

51.6%

52.2%

52.6%

53.0%

53.4%

 

99%

52.0%

52.2%

52.3%

52.5%

52.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 Battleground state vote shares before and after allocating new and returning Nader 2000 voters

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National

 

 

Oregon

 

 

New York

 

 

California

 

 

2000

Dem

Bush

Other

Dem

Bush

Other

Dem

Bush

Other

Dem

Bush

Other

Recorded

51004

50456

3950

720

714

100

4108

2403

311

5861

4567

538

Share

48.39%

47.87%

3.75%

46.96%

46.52%

6.52%

60.21%

35.23%

4.56%

53.45%

41.65%

4.91%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

55066

51810

3950

724

715

100

4244

2449

311

6253

4698

538

Alive

52313

49220

3753

688

679

95

4032

2326

295

5940

4463

511

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout

51266

48235

3677

674

666

93

3951

2280

290

5822

4374

501

Nader/other

2390

478

809

61

12

20

188

38

64

326

65

110

DNV 2k

13309

8797

451

238

157

8

782

372

24

1100

590

34

Total

66965

57510

1260

973

834

29

4921

2690

87

7247

5029

145

2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote

53.3%

45.7%

1.0%

53.0%

45.4%

1.6%

63.9%

34.9%

1.1%

58.3%

40.5%

1.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

59028

62041

1224

943

867

27

4314

2963

114

6745

5510

165

Share

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

51.35%

47.19%

1.46%

58.37%

40.08%

1.54%

54.31%

44.36%

1.32%

Swing

-0.1%

2.9%

-2.7%

4.4%

0.7%

-5.1%

-1.8%

4.9%

-3.0%

0.9%

2.7%

-3.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exit Poll

52.0%

47.0%

1.0%

52.2%

46.3%

1.5%

64.5%

34.0%

1.5%

60.1%

38.6%

1.3%

EP- True

-1.3%

1.3%

0.0%

-0.8%

0.9%

-0.1%

0.6%

-0.9%

0.4%

1.8%

-1.9%

0.1%

EP-Recorded

3.7%

-3.7%

0.0%

0.9%

-0.9%

0.0%

6.1%

-6.1%

0.0%

5.8%

-5.8%

0.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pre-elect

47.9%

46.9%

1.0%

50.0%

44.0%

1.6%

57.0%

39.0%

1.1%

49.0%

42.0%

1.2%

Projected

51.0%

47.9%

1.0%

53.3%

45.1%

1.6%

59.1%

39.7%

1.1%

54.9%

44.0%

1.2%

EP-Project

0.9%

-0.9%

0.0%

-1.1%

1.2%

-0.1%

5.4%

-5.7%

0.4%

5.2%

-5.4%

0.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Florida

 

 

Ohio

 

 

Iowa

 

 

Missouri

 

 

2000

Dem

Bush

Other

Dem

Bush

Other

Dem

Bush

Other

Dem

Bush

Other

Recorded

2913

2913

138

2186

2351

168

639

634

42

1111

1190

59

Share

48.84%

48.84%

2.31%

46.46%

49.97%

3.57%

48.55%

48.23%

3.22%

47.08%

50.42%

2.50%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

3056

2961

138

2274

2381

168

674

646

42

1335

1265

59

Alive

2903

2812

131

2161

2262

159

641

614

40

1269

1201

56

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout

2845

2756

128

2118

2216

156

628

602

39

1243

1177

55

Nader/other

84

17

28

102

20

34

26

5

9

36

7

12

DNV 2k

1099

744

38

896

562

30

139

95

5

146

104

5

Total

4027

3517

66

3115

2799

64

792

701

13

1425

1289

17

2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote

52.9%

46.2%

0.9%

52.1%

46.8%

1.1%

52.6%

46.5%

0.9%

52.2%

47.2%

0.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

3584

3965

62

2741

2860

27

742

752

13

1259

1456

16

Share

47.1%

52.1%

0.8%

48.9%

51.1%

0.5%

49.2%

49.9%

0.9%

46.1%

53.3%

0.6%

Swing

-1.8%

3.3%

-1.5%

2.5%

1.1%

-3.1%

0.7%

1.7%

-2.4%

-1.0%

2.9%

-1.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exit Poll

51.0%

48.2%

0.8%

54.0%

45.5%

0.5%

50.7%

48.4%

0.9%

49.0%

50.3%

0.7%

EP- True

-1.9%

2.0%

-0.1%

1.9%

-1.3%

-0.6%

-1.9%

1.9%

0.0%

-3.2%

3.1%

0.1%

 

3.9%

-3.9%

0.0%

5.1%

-5.6%

0.0%

1.5%

-1.5%

0.0%

2.9%

-3.0%

0.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pre-elect

50.0%

47.0%

0.9%

50.0%

47.0%

1.1%

50.0%

44.0%

0.9%

44.0%

48.0%

0.6%

Projected

51.6%

47.5%

0.9%

51.4%

47.5%

1.1%

53.8%

45.3%

0.9%

49.5%

49.8%

0.6%

EP-Project

-0.6%

0.7%

-0.1%

2.6%

-2.0%

-0.6%

-3.1%

3.1%

0.0%

-0.5%

0.5%

0.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pennsylvania

 

 

Michigan

 

 

New Mexico

 

Wisconsin

 

 

2000

Dem

Bush

Other

Dem

Bush

Other

Dem

Bush

Other

Dem

Bush

Other

Recorded

2486

2281

146

2170

1953

109

287

286

25

1243

1237

118

Share

50.60%

46.43%

2.97%

51.28%

46.15%

2.58%

47.94%

47.88%

4.18%

47.84%

47.62%

4.54%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

2542

2300

146

2253

1981

109

323

299

25

1268

1246

118

Alive

2415

2185

139

2141

1882

104

307

284

24

1205

1183

112

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout

2367

2141

136

2098

1844

101

301

278

23

1181

1160

110

Nader/other

88

18

30

66

13

22

15

3

5

71

14

24

DNV 2k

685

418

22

481

299

16

92

59

3

323

213

11

Total

3140

2577

52

2645

2156

38

408

340

8

1575

1387

35

2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote

54.4%

44.7%

0.9%

54.7%

44.6%

0.8%

53.9%

45.0%

1.1%

52.6%

46.3%

1.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

2938

2794

38

2479

2314

46

371

377

8

1490

1478

29

Share

50.9%

48.4%

0.7%

51.2%

47.8%

1.0%

49.0%

49.8%

1.1%

49.7%

49.3%

1.0%

Swing

0.3%

2.0%

-2.3%

0.0%

1.7%

-1.6%

1.1%

2.0%

-3.1%

1.9%

1.7%

-3.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exit Poll

55.1%

44.2%

0.7%

54.4%

44.6%

1.0%

53.0%

45.8%

1.2%

52.1%

46.9%

1.0%

EP- True

0.7%

-0.5%

-0.2%

-0.3%

0.0%

0.2%

-0.9%

0.8%

0.1%

-0.5%

0.6%

-0.2%

EP-Record

4.2%

-4.2%

0.0%

3.2%

-3.2%

0.0%

4.0%

-4.0%

0.1%

2.4%

-2.4%

0.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pre-elect

50.0%

45.0%

0.9%

52.0%

45.0%

0.8%

49.0%

49.0%

1.1%

51.0%

44.0%

1.2%

Projected

53.1%

46.0%

0.9%

53.7%

45.6%

0.8%

49.7%

49.2%

1.1%

53.9%

45.0%

1.2%

EP-Project

2.0%

-1.8%

-0.2%

0.7%

-1.0%

0.2%

3.3%

-3.4%

0.1%

-1.8%

1.9%

-0.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Washingtom

 

 

Colorado

 

 

Connecticut

 

Minnesota

 

2000

Dem

Bush

Other

Dem

Bush

Other

Dem

Bush

Other

Dem

Bush

Other

Recorded

1248

1109

132

738

884

119

816

561

82

1168

1110

161

Share

50.14%

44.56%

5.30%

42.39%

50.78%

6.84%

55.93%

38.45%

5.62%

47.89%

45.51%

6.60%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

1277

1119

132

657

857

119

721

529

82

1121

1094

161

Alive

1213

1063

125

624

814

113

685

503

78

1065

1040

153

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout

1188

1041

123

612

798

111

671

493

76

1043

1019

150

Nader/other

80

16

27

72

14

24

50

10

17

97

19

33

DNV 2k

313

183

10

353

245

12

221

112

7

378

226

12

Total

1582

1240

37

1037

1057

37

941

614

24

1519

1264

45

2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote

55.3%

43.4%

1.3%

48.7%

49.6%

1.7%

59.6%

38.9%

1.5%

53.7%

44.7%

1.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

1510

1305

44

1002

1101

27

857

694

27

1445

1347

37

Share

52.8%

45.6%

1.5%

47.0%

51.7%

1.3%

54.3%

44.0%

1.7%

51.1%

47.6%

1.3%

Swing

2.7%

1.1%

-3.8%

4.7%

0.9%

-5.6%

-1.6%

5.5%

-3.9%

3.2%

2.1%

-5.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exit Poll

56.8%

41.6%

1.5%

50.1%

48.6%

1.3%

62.3%

35.9%

1.8%

55.9%

43.0%

1.1%

EP- True

1.5%

-1.7%

0.3%

1.4%

-1.0%

-0.4%

2.7%

-3.0%

0.3%

2.2%

-1.7%

-0.5%

EP-Record

4.0%

-4.0%

0.0%

3.1%

-3.1%

0.0%

8.0%

-8.1%

0.1%

4.8%

-4.6%

-0.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pre-elect

52.0%

44.0%

1.3%

47.0%

48.0%

1.7%

52.0%

42.0%

1.5%

52.0%

44.0%

1.6%

Projected

54.0%

44.7%

1.3%

49.5%

48.8%

1.7%

55.4%

43.1%

1.5%

53.8%

44.6%

1.6%

EP-Project

2.8%

-3.0%

0.3%

0.6%

-0.2%

-0.4%

6.9%

-7.2%

0.3%

2.1%

-1.6%

-0.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nevada

 

 

New Hampshire

 

North Carolina

 

Virginia

 

 

2000

Dem

Bush

Other

Dem

Bush

Other

Dem

Bush

Other

Dem

Bush

Other

Recorded

280

302

27

266

274

29

1250

1631

22

1217

1437

84

Share

45.98%

49.59%

4.43%

46.75%

48.15%

5.10%

43.06%

56.18%

0.76%

44.45%

52.48%

3.07%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

304

310

27

268

275

29

1319

1654

22

1385

1493

84

Alive

289

295

26

254

261

28

1253

1571

21

1316

1418

80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout

283

289

25

249

256

27

1228

1540

20

1289

1390

78

Nader/other

16

3

6

18

4

6

13

3

5

51

10

17

DNV 2k

139

90

5

91

53

3

410

288

14

254

177

9

Total

438

382

10

357

312

9

1651

1831

19

1594

1578

26

2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote

52.8%

46.0%

1.2%

52.7%

46.0%

1.3%

47.2%

52.3%

0.5%

49.9%

49.3%

0.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

397

419

14

341

331

6

1526

1961

14

1455

1717

27

Share

47.8%

50.5%

1.7%

50.7%

49.3%

0.9%

43.6%

56.0%

0.4%

45.5%

53.7%

0.8%

Swing

1.9%

0.9%

-2.7%

4.0%

1.1%

-4.2%

0.5%

-0.2%

-0.4%

1.0%

1.2%

-2.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exit Poll

52.8%

45.5%

1.7%

57.2%

41.9%

0.9%

49.5%

50.1%

0.4%

49.8%

49.3%

0.9%

EP- True

0.0%

-0.5%

0.5%

4.5%

-4.1%

-0.4%

2.3%

-2.2%

-0.1%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

EP-Record

5.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

6.5%

-7.4%

0.0%

5.9%

-5.9%

0.0%

4.3%

-4.4%

0.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pre-elect

49.0%

49.0%

1.2%

47.0%

47.0%

1.3%

47.0%

50.0%

0.5%

47.0%

51.0%

0.8%

Projected

49.6%

49.2%

1.2%

50.5%

48.2%

1.3%

48.8%

50.6%

0.5%

47.9%

51.3%

0.8%

EP-Project

3.2%

-3.7%

0.5%

6.7%

-6.3%

-0.4%

0.7%

-0.5%

-0.1%

1.9%

-2.0%

0.1%

 

 

National 2004 True Vote Model

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout

Unctd / stuffed

 

Cast

Official

 Unctd

Alive

Cast

Official

Unct

 Mort  

Gore

Bush

Gore

Bush

Other

 

110.8

105.4

5.4

105.3

125.7

122.3

3.4

6.1

98%

98%

75%

24%

1%

 

-

95.1%

4.9%

95.0%

-

97.3%

2.7%

5.0%

-

-

0%

100%

 -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National

Vote (mil)

390 EV

 Pct

Share (%)

 

Vote (mil)

 

 

MoE

2000

Cast

Recorded

 Alive

Turnout

 Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

1.7%

DNV

 -

 -

 -

22.4

17.8

59%

39%

2%

13.2

8.7

0.45

 

1.0%

Gore

55.4

51.0

52.7

51.6

41.0

91

8

1

47.0

4.1

0.51

98%

1.0%

Bush

51.4

50.5

48.8

47.8

38.0

10

90

0

4.8

43.0

0.00

98%

1.7%

Other

0.0

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.1

65

13

22

2.5

0.5

0.85

98%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote

111.0

105.4

105.4

125.7

 

53.7

44.9

1.4

67.5

56.4

1.81

98%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

48.3

50.7

1.0

59.0

62.0

1.22

122.3

 

Recorded

48.4

47.9

3.8

Diff

 

5.4

-5.9

0.4

8.5

-5.6

0.59

 

 

Cast

50.0

46.3

3.8

Exit Poll

51.9

47.1

1.0

63.5

57.6

1.23

122.3

 

Exit Poll

49.4

46.9

3.7

Diff

 

1.8

-2.2

0.4

4.0

-1.1

0.59

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

 

Gore voter turnout

 

 

Share of

Kerry Share of DNV

 

 

Turnout

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

 

Bush

 57%

58%

59%

60%

61%

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

90%

54.1

54.4

54.7

54.9

55.2

 

12%

54.1

54.3

54.4

54.6

54.8

 

92%

53.7

54.0

54.3

54.5

54.8

 

11%

53.7

53.9

54.1

54.2

54.4

 

94%

53.4

53.6

53.9

54.2

54.4

 

10%

53.3

53.5

53.7

53.9

54.0

 

96%

53.0

53.3

53.5

53.8

54.1

 

9%

52.9

53.1

53.3

53.5

53.7

 

98%

52.6

52.9

53.1

53.4

53.7

 

8%

52.6

52.7

52.9

53.1

53.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

 

90%

12.2

12.9

13.5

14.2

14.9

 

12%

12.1

12.5

13.0

13.4

13.9

 

92%

11.3

11.9

12.6

13.3

13.9

 

11%

11.1

11.6

12.0

12.5

12.9

 

94%

10.3

11.0

11.6

12.3

13.0

 

10%

10.2

10.6

11.1

11.5

12.0

 

96%

9.4

10.0

10.7

11.4

12.0

 

9%

9.2

9.7

10.1

10.6

11.0

 

98%

8.4

9.1

9.7

10.4

11.1

 

8%

8.3

8.7

9.2

9.6

10.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Electoral Vote

 

 

 

 

Kerry Electoral Vote

 

 

90%

390

398

398

413

413

 

12%

390

390

398

398

413

 

92%

390

390

398

398

413

 

11%

398

398

398

413

413

 

94%

379

390

390

390

398

 

10%

398

398

398

413

413

 

96%

357

370

390

390

390

 

9%

390

390

398

398

413

 

98%

351

357

370

390

390

 

8%

390

390

390

390

390

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MoE

1.0%

0.9%

0.8%

0.7%

0.5%

 

MoE

1.7%

1.7%

1.7%

1.7%

1.7%

 

 

Oregon 2004 True Vote Model

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout

 Unctd / stuffed

 

Cast

Official

Unctd

Alive

Cast

Official

 Unct

 Mort  

 Gore

Bush

Gore

Bush

Other

 

110.8

105.4

5.4

105.3

125.7

122.3

3.4

6.1

98%

98%

75%

24%

1%

 

-

95.1%

4.9%

95.0%

-

97.3%

2.7%

5.0%

-

-

0%

100%

 -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OR

Vote (mil)

 

 

 Pct

Share (%)

 

Vote (mil)

 

 

MoE

2000

Cast

Recorded

 Alive

Turnout

 Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

1.7%

DNV

 -

 -

 -

0.41

22.5

59%

39%

2%

0.24

0.16

0.01

 

1.0%

Gore

0.72

0.72

0.68

0.67

36.5

91

8

1

0.61

0.05

0.01

98%

1.0%

Bush

0.71

0.71

0.67

0.66

35.9

10

90

0

0.07

0.59

0.00

98%

1.7%

Other

0.00

0.10

0.10

0.09

5.1

65

13

22

0.06

0.01

0.02

98%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote

 1.53

 1.53

1.45

1.84

 

53.4

44.7

1.9

0.98

0.82

0.04

98%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

51.4

47.2

1.4

0.94

0.87

0.03

1.84

 

Recorded

47.0

46.5

6.5

Diff

 

2.0

-2.5

0.5

0.04

-0.05

0.01

 

 

Cast

47.1

46.3

6.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

 

Gore voter turnout

 

 

Share of

Kerry Share of DNV

 

 

turnout

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

 

Bush

 57%

58%

59%

60%

61%

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

90%

53.8

54.1

54.3

54.6

54.8

 

12%

53.7

53.9

54.1

54.3

54.6

 

92%

53.5

53.7

54.0

54.2

54.4

 

11%

53.3

53.5

53.7

54.0

54.2

 

94%

53.1

53.4

53.6

53.9

54.1

 

10%

52.9

53.2

53.4

53.6

53.8

 

96%

52.8

53.0

53.3

53.5

53.7

 

9%

52.6

52.8

53.0

53.3

53.5

 

98%

52.4

52.7

52.9

53.2

53.4

 

8%

52.2

52.4

52.7

52.9

53.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

 

90%

0.18

0.19

0.19

0.20

0.21

 

12%

0.17

0.18

0.19

0.19

0.20

 

92%

0.16

0.17

0.18

0.19

0.20

 

11%

0.16

0.16

0.17

0.18

0.19

 

94%

0.15

0.16

0.17

0.18

0.19

 

10%

0.14

0.15

0.16

0.17

0.18

 

96%

0.14

0.15

0.16

0.16

0.17

 

9%

0.13

0.14

0.15

0.16

0.16

 

98%

0.13

0.13

0.14

0.15

0.16

 

8%

0.12

0.13

0.13

0.14

0.15

 

 

National 2008 True Vote Model

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout

 Unctd / stuffed

 

Cast

Official

Unctd

Alive

Cast

Official

 Unctd

Mort

 Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Other

 

125.7

122.3

3.4

119.4

132.6

131.4

1.2

6.6

97%

97%

75%

24%

1%

 

-

97.3%

2.7%

95.0%

-

99.1%

0.9%

5.0%

-

-

0%

100%

 -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National

Vote (mil)

419 EV

Pct

Share (%)

 

Vote (mil)

 

 

MoE

2004

Cast

Recorded

 Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

 McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

1.6%

DNV

 -

 -

 -

16.4

12.4

71%

27%

2%

11.7

4.4

0.33

 

1.1%

Kerry

67.2

59.0

63.9

61.9

46.8

89

10

1

55.1

6.2

0.62

97%

1.3%

Bush

57.0

62.0

54.1

52.5

39.7

17

82

1

8.9

43.0

0.52

97%

1.5%

Other

0.0

1.2

1.5

1.4

1.1

73

16

11

1.0

0.2

0.16