Oregon Vote by Mail: Statistical Evidence that it Works

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Sept. 29, 2011

This statistical analysis of Oregon’s voting history provides evidence that the vote-by-mail system introduced in 1998 has been a success. In 2000, it closely matched the national recorded vote, as expected. In 2004, Kerry’s recorded vote share in Oregon was close to the pre-election poll and the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate (52-47%). But it was 3% higher than his recorded national and average battleground shares.

Bush improved on his 2000 recorded vote share not only in the battleground states, but also in solidly Democratic New York. But Oregon went against the grain and shifted from Gore to Kerry. Kerry won Oregon by 51.4-47.2%. His margin improved by 3.7% over Gore, primarily from his 65-13% edge in returning Nader voters and 59-39% margin in new voters. The pre-election National, Oregon and Battleground polls, adjusted for undecided voters, projected that Kerry would win by 51-48%. Post-election state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry won by 3-7%. The True Vote model indicates that he won by 53.3-45.7% (nearly 10 million votes) assuming a zero net defection of returning Gore and Bush voters.

Did Oregon’s mail-in system miscount the votes? To believe it did, you must also believe that Bush did in fact win an honest election and that the national and state exit polls that indicated Kerry won were wrong. But what if the exit polls were correct and votes were miscounted in the other non-paper ballot states that used electronic voting machines, punched cards or levers? Then one would then have to conclude that Oregon’s vote-by-mail system worked – and that the others did not.

1988-2008 Vote Shares

			National			State Exit			Oregon
	Dem 2-party share		Recorded			Aggregate			Recorded				Post-election survey
	National	Oregon	Dem	Rep	Other	Dem	Rep	Other	Dem	Rep	Other	Dem	Rep	Other
2008	53.7	58.4	52.9	45.6	1.5	57.9	40.2	1.9	56.7	40.4	2.9	58.4	38.6	3.0
2004	48.8	52.1	48.3	50.7	1.0	52.0	47.0	1.0	51.3	47.2	1.5	52.2	46.3	1.5
2000	50.3	50.2	48.4	47.9	3.7	49.4	46.9	3.7	47.0	46.5	6.5	47.8	45.9	6.3
1996	54.7	54.7	49.2	40.7	10.1	50.2	39.8	10.0	47.2	39.1	13.7	48.4	37.9	13.7
1992	53.5	56.7	43.0	37.4	19.6	45.7	34.8	19.5	42.5	32.5	25.0	49.3	25.7	25.0
1988	46.0	52.4	45.6	53.4	1.0	50.0	49.0	1.0	51.3	46.6	2.1	55.0	42.9	2.1

Note:

Oregon post-election: 1988-1996 unadjusted exit polls; 2000-2008 telephone surveys.

Unadjusted state and national exit polls are funded by the National Election Pool media consortium.

In 1988 VP Bush was the de-facto incumbent.

Dukakis led by 55.0-42.9% in the Oregon exit poll. He won the state recorded vote 51.3-46.6%.

He won the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 50.0-49.0%

Bush won the national recorded vote by 53.4-45.6%.

In 1992 Bush was the incumbent.

Clinton led Bush by 49.3-25.7% in the Oregon exit poll. He won the state recorded vote by just 42.5-32.5%.

He led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 45.7-34.8%.

He won the national recorded vote by 43.0-37.4%.

In 1996, Clinton was the incumbent.

He led by 48.4-37.9% in the Oregon exit poll. He won the state by nearly the same margin: 47.2-39.1%.

He led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 50.2-39.8%.

He won the national recorded vote by nearly the same margin: 49.2-40.7%.

His 54.7% two-party Oregon share exactly matched the National recorded share.

In 2000, Clinton was the incumbent.

Gore won Oregon by 47.0-46.5%

Gore would have won Oregon by 51-47% were it not for Nader.

He led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 49.4-46.9%.

He won nationally by nearly the same margin (48.4-47.9%) and had a 48.3% Battleground share.

The National True Vote Model indicates that he won by nearly the same 50-47%.

In 2004, Bush was the incumbent.

Kerry led the Oregon pre-election poll by 50-44% and was projected to win by 53.7-45.3%.

He won the state by 51.3-47.2%, a 3.6% improvement over Gore.

Kerry led the weighted aggregate state pre-election polls by 48-47% and projected to win by 51-48%.

He won the unadjusted ste exit polls national aggregate by 52.0-47.0%. But he lost to Bush by a 50.7-48.3% recorded vote margin.

True Vote Model: Kerry had a 53.3% national share and won by nearly 10 million votes.

In 2008, McCain was the de-facto incumbent.

Obama led by 56-39% in the Oregon pre-election poll. He won Oregon by 56.7-40.4%.

He had 58.4% in the post-election survey. The True Vote model indicates that he won by 56.0-42.8%.

But he won nationally by just 52.9-45.6% and a 9.5 million recorded vote margin.

He had 57.9% in the unadjusted state aggregate exit poll.

Obama had a 58% True Vote share and won by 22 million votes.

The three-way match is powerful confirming evidence that the vote-by-mail system worked.

Analysis Summary

Recorded	National	Oregon	Battleground
Gore	48.38%	46.96%	47.82%
Kerry	48.27%	51.35%	50.58%
Swing	-0.11%	4.39%	2.76%
Kerry
Pre-elect	51.05%	53.33%	51.83%
Exit Poll	51.97%	52.20%	53.01%
True Vote	53.26%	53.00%	52.71%
Deviations
Exit-Rec	3.70%	0.85%	2.43%
True-Rec	4.99%	1.65%	2.13%
True-Pre	2.21%	-0.33%	0.89%
True-Exit	1.29%	0.80%	-0.29%

The National, Oregon and Battleground pre-election projection and post-election exit poll shares closely match.

This confirms that Oregon is representative of the National and Battleground electorate.

Therefore, we must conclude that the election was stolen in the Battleground states and Oregon’s vote by mail system is virtually fraud-proof.

True Vote Methodology

The analysis tables provide a reasonable approximation of the National, Oregon and Battleground True Vote shares.

Given 2000 and 2004 votes recorded and cast, the True Vote calculation assumes:

1. Kerry and Gore had 75% of the uncounted (cast - recorded) votes

2. Annual 1.25% voter mortality (5% in the four years between elections)

3. Equal 98% turnout of returning 2000 voters in 2004.

4. Equal Gore and Bush returning voter defection rates (they cancel each other).

5. Kerry won returning Nader voters by 65-13% over Bush based on the National Exit Poll.

6. New 2004 voters is the difference between 2004 votes cast and returning 2000 voters.

7. Kerry won new voters by 59-39% nationally. His DNV share in each state is calculated as:

State DNV share = 0.59* (1+state exit poll share - 0.5197)*new voters, where .5197 is Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (national) share.

For instance, in NY, Kerry’s share of 1347k DNV is 894k = 0.59*(1+.645-0.5197).

A simplifying assumption is that there was zero net defection of returning Gore and Bush voters (they cancelled each other). However the 12:22am National Exit Poll of 13,047 respondents indicates that 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry and only 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. The 2004 True Vote analysis shown below indicates that he had a 53.7% national share assuming a net 2% defection as opposed to his 53.3% assuming zero net defection. See the Recursive True Vote Model.

Kerry True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

Two groups of three tables display the effect of various model input assumptions on Kerry’s vote share. The margin of error is less than 1.5%.

-New Voters and returning Nader/other voters

Three tables display Kerry’s National, Oregon and Battleground True Vote shares over a 54-63% range of new voters and 61-69% of returning Nader/other voters.

Kerry wins all worst case scenarios (54% of new voters and 61% of returning Nader voters).

-Returning Gore and Bush Voter Turnout

Three tables display Kerry’s National, Oregon and Battleground vote shares for 91-99% turnout of living former Gore and Bush voters.

Kerry wins all worst case turnout scenarios (91% of living Gore voters and 99% of living Bush voters).

Oregon vs. New York and California

National

In 2000, Gore won the recorded vote by 48.4-47.9%.

In 2004, although returning Nader voters broke heavily for Kerry by 65-13% and new voters by 59-39%, Bush won by 50.7-48.3%.That is not plausible.

Oregon

Gore won by 47.0-46.5%.

With returning Nader and new voters breaking for Kerry, his recorded vote-count margin increased to 51.4-47.2%. That is plausible.

Kerry led by 52.2-46.3% in the exit pollster telephone poll. That is plausible.

New York

Gore won by 60.2-35.2%.

Although returning Nader and new voters broke heavily for Kerry, his recorded vote-count margin declined to 58.4-40.1%. That is not plausible.

Kerry led by 64.5-34.0% in the exit poll. That is plausible.

California

Gore won by 53.4-41.6%.

Although returning Nader and new voters broke heavily for Kerry, his recorded vote-count margin declined to 54.3-44.1%. That is not plausible.

Kerry led by 60.1-38.6% in the exit poll. That is plausible.

Why did Kerry’s margin increase in Oregon, a battleground state, and decline in strongly Democratic California and New York?

Why was the exit poll so far off in California (11.6 WPE)? It voted 29% on DRE touch screens, 66% on optical scanners and 4% on punch cards.

Why was the exit poll so far off in New York (12.2 WPE)? It voted exclusively on lever machines.

Why were the exit polls so far off (7.5 WPE) in the Battleground states? They voted on machines (see the chart below).

Florida and Ohio

In Florida 2000, there were approximately 185,000 spoiled punch cards (under-punched and over-punched).

According to the Census, 43,000 more votes were cast than recorded.

Where did the 142,000 extra votes come from?

Bush won Florida by 537 votes.

In Florida 2004, approximately 238,000 more votes were recorded than cast.

How many were uncounted?

Bush won by 380,000 votes.

In Ohio 2004, according to the Census, 143,000 more votes were recorded than cast.

Approximately 350,000 were uncounted (see Was the 2004 Election Stolen? by RFK, Jr.)

How many votes were switched?

Bush won by 119,000 votes.

Oregon’s Pre-Election Polls Uniquely Matched the Recorded and True Vote

Final-week state pre-election polls were virtually all Likely Voter (LV) subsets of the full Registered Voter (RV) samples. Likely Voter subsets largely exclude "new" voters: first-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election. The Democrats won ‘new voters’ by an average 14% margin (before Obama’s whopping 44%). Projections that ignore RV polls and focus solely on LV polls will inevitably underestimate the Democratic share, especially in heavy-turnout elections such as record-setting 2004 and 2008. In 2004, the LV polls understated voter turnout by 6%. Gross underestimates would be expected from political sites by displaying only LV polls and failing to allocate undecided voters.

Mainstream pollsters allocated undecided voters to Kerry by 2:1-to-4:1. Kerry’s projected national LV poll share was 1-2% lower than the projected RV share. In New York and California the pre-election poll projections were a virtual match to the recorded vote-count share but 5-6% below Kerry’s exit poll and True Vote shares. The same LV/RV mismatch occurred in 2008. Obama had 53% based on LV polls but a 57% projected share based on RV national polls after allocating undecided voters.

In Oregon, voting by mail results in high turnout and the pre-election polls are RVs by definition. Kerry led by 50-44% in the final poll. After undecided voter allocation (UVA), he was projected to win by 53-45%. The Oregon projection matched the True Vote Model and was within 1.6% of his recorded share.

In the final weeks prior to the 2004 and 2008 elections, national LV polls were displayed on political websites; many did not allocate undecided voters. By virtue of its vote by mail system, Oregon’s RV pre-election polls undermine the media’s objective of forcing voters into believing bogus vote counts. The media primes voters before the election with LV-only projections. Then it covers up the fraud post-election with final "exit polls" that are always forced to match the counts. In 2008 National Election Pool (NEP) consortium did not release the preliminary national and unadjusted state exit polls. Why not?

1988 - 2008: Patterns of Discrepancies Before and After Voting-By-Mail

Note: vote shares are two-party to eliminate third-party (Perot/Nader) effects.

Before Mail-In Ballots

1988 - Bush was Vice President.

Dukakis had 52.4% in Oregon and a 46.0% National share – a very big 6.2% discrepancy.

He did 3.7% better in the exit poll than the recorded vote.

1992 - Bush was President.

Clinton had 56.7% in Oregon and a 53.5% National share - a 3.2% discrepancy.

He did a whopping 6.8% better in the exit poll than the recorded vote.

1996 - Clinton was President.

Clinton had 54.7% Oregon and a 54.7% National share - a perfect match.

He did 1.2% better in the exit poll than the recorded vote.

After Mail-In Ballots

2000 - Clinton was President.

Gore had 50.2% in Oregon and a 50.3% National share – a perfect match

2004 - Bush was President.

Kerry had 52.1% in Oregon and a 48.8% National share - a 3.3% discrepancy.

2008 - Bush was President.

Obama had 58.4% in Oregon and a 53.7% National share - a 4.7% discrepancy.

- Is it just a coincidence that when Clinton was the incumbent, there was an exact match between the Oregon and National vote shares?

- Is it just a coincidence that when Bush was the incumbent, there was a 4.4% average discrepancy between the Oregon and National vote shares?

- If the True Vote Model is correct and Oregon reflects the national electorate, then what does this say about our electoral system?

Oregon County Vote Change Correlation

With the change to mail-in ballots in 1998, there has been a noticeable decline in the volatility of changes in Oregon county vote shares from election to election. Before the switch to mail, there was a 0.93 correlation between 1996 and 2000 county vote share and a 5.0% standard deviation.

After the switch to mail, there was a near-perfect 0.98 correlation between 2000 and 2004 county vote shares and a 2.2% standard deviation in percentage vote change. There was an even better 0.99 correlation for 2004 and 2008 and a very low1.5% standard deviation in percentage vote change. The system is getting better and better.

The statistical analysis makes intuitive sense. Since the battleground states closely mirror the national electorate as a whole, Oregon’s recorded vote share should have been close to that of the other battleground states, but it was the only one that deviated sharply to Kerry. Oregon’s voting system is transparent. Optically scanned machine counts are verified by random hand-counts. Washington has also recently implemented a mail-in system.

Touch screen voting machine precincts avoid paper ballots; votes can be switched locally or at the invisible central tabulators. Optical scanners are a step in the right direction, but the system is ripe for fraud without mandating a random hand-count of selected precincts like they do in Oregon. Punch card machines can void the vote by double and triple-punching after the polls close. As in Florida 2000, election officials are quick to blame “stupid” voters if there are “problems” with the machines.

If they use lever machines, as in NY and PA, there are no paper ballots to verify the vote; too few machines can be placed in heavily Democratic precincts; or bad machines that will likely break down will cause voters to leave the polling booth; the levers can be “stuck”, like they were for Bush in 2004; votes can be switched by the central tabulators; lever gears can be shaved. There are many ways to skin the cat. In NY, Gore, Kerry and Obama each enjoyed a 7% higher late (paper ballot) vote share than they did on Election Day (lever votes). What does that tell us?

Here is an amazing statistic that very few are even aware of: Obama had 52% of the 121 million votes recorded on Election Day and a whopping 59% of the 10 million late (paper ballot) votes. What are the odds of the 7% discrepancy? What is the margin of error in a poll with 10 million respondents?

Since Kerry won new voters by 59-39% and returning Nader voters by 65-13%, to believe the recorded vote shares, you must also believe that returning Gore voters defected to Bush at a much higher rate than Bush voters to Kerry. But according to the National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush and 8% of Gore voters defected.

The above analysis indicates that Oregon’s mail-in system works just fine. But it would be greatly appreciated if interested readers found flaws in the assumptions, logic or the math and presented contrary statistical and/or anecdotal evidence. The analysis can then be forwarded to Oregon’s election officials who may then decide to scrap vote by mail and convert to HAVA-compliant DREs, Optical scanners, Punch cards or Levers. Advise them to recount only those elections in which the vote shares differ by less than .001%.

If you believe the recorded 2004 vote was accurate in the battleground states, then you must also believe that…

1- Bush won a fair election.

2- The electronic and mechanical voting machines accurately counted the votes.

3- There was little or no fraud.

4- Election reform efforts are meaningless.

5- There is nothing wrong with our national voting system.

6- Oregon’s voting system was rigged for Kerry since it was the only battleground state he won that shifted sharply to him from Gore.

7- Pre-election state and national polls that projected Kerry would win by 51-48% after undecided voters were allocated were wrong.

8- Unadjusted and preliminary state and national exit polls that had Kerry winning by 5-7% were wrong.

9- The Oregon telephone survey that showed Kerry winning a 52.3% share was wrong.

10- Either returning Nader voters defected to Bush and/or he won a majority of new voters and/or more returning Gore voters than Bush voters defected.

11 -The National Exit Poll which had Kerry winning returning Nader voters by 65-13% and new voters by 59-39% were wrong.

12- The Oregon vote must have been padded for Kerry (51.4%) and Obama (56.7%).

13- Election officials in Florida, Ohio, NY and other states did a great job in making sure that the voting machines were not tampered with.

14- A problem with vote by mail is the elimination of exit polls. Oregon needs exit polls even though they are usually wrong.

15- The True Vote Model is flawed since it closely matched the unadjusted National, Oregon and Battleground exit polls.

16- There is nothing wrong with the standard policy of forcing final state and national exit polls to match the recorded vote.

17- Final 1992, 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were correct: there were millions more returning Bush voters from the prior election than were alive.

If you believe that vote-by-mail systems are vulnerable to election official fraud or voter fraud, then lobby state officials to stop the vote-by-mail trend. Otherwise, fraud-free HAVA-compliant voting systems now working just fine in all the other states will become clones of Oregon and Washington.

Those opposed to mail-in voting cite advantages in voting at the precinct: voters can get to see friends and make new ones, take time off from work, project a patriotic image by voting in full view, look smart by touching the computer screen, exercise their legs while waiting to vote and get some cheap coffee.

2004 True Vote Summary

	Cast	Recorded	Dem	Bush	Other	Dem	Bush	Other	Margin
2000	110,826	105,421	51,004	50,456	3,961	48.38%	47.86%	3.76%	0.52%
2004	125,736	122,295	59,027	62,040	1,228	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	-2.46%
Change	14,910	16,874	8,023	11,584	-2,733	-0.12%	2.87%	-2.75%	-2.98%
Zero net defection of returning Gore and Bush voters
98% turnout of living 2000 voters					Recorded	National	Oregon	Battleground
					Gore	48.38%	46.96%	47.82%
Voter mortality (4yr)		5%			Kerry	48.27%	51.35%	50.58%
Alive	105,285	95%			Swing	-0.11%	4.39%	2.76%
Returning	103,179	98%
DNV 2k	22,557	17.9%			Kerry
					Pre-elect	51.05%	53.33%	51.83%
Voted 2k	Kerry	Bush	Other		Exit Poll	51.97%	52.20%	53.01%
Nader	65%	13%	22%		True Vote	53.26%	53.00%	52.71%
DNV	59%	39%	2%		Deviations
Undecided Voter Allocation					Exit-Rec	3.70%	0.85%	2.43%
UVA	75%	25%			True-Rec	4.99%	1.65%	2.13%
Turnout	98%	98%	98%
					True-Pre	2.21%	-0.33%	0.89%
					True-Exit	1.29%	0.80%	-0.29%
Kerry True Vote Share Sensitivity
Share of	National						Bush	National
Nader	Share of DNV						Turnout	Gore Voter Turnout
53.26%	54%	57%	59%	61%	63%		53.26%	95%	96%	97%	98%	99%
69%	52.5%	53.0%	53.4%	53.7%	54.1%		95%	53.4%	53.6%	53.8%	54.0%	54.1%
67%	52.4%	53.0%	53.3%	53.7%	54.0%		96%	53.2%	53.4%	53.6%	53.7%	53.9%
65%	52.4%	52.9%	53.3%	53.6%	54.0%		97%	53.0%	53.1%	53.3%	53.5%	53.7%
63%	52.3%	52.8%	53.2%	53.6%	53.9%		98%	52.7%	52.9%	53.1%	53.3%	53.4%
61%	52.2%	52.8%	53.1%	53.5%	53.9%		99%	52.5%	52.7%	52.9%	53.0%	53.2%
	Oregon							Oregon
53.00%	54%	57%	59%	61%	63%		53.00%	95%	96%	97%	98%	99%
69%	52.1%	52.8%	53.2%	53.6%	54.1%		95%	53.2%	53.4%	53.5%	53.7%	53.8%
67%	52.0%	52.7%	53.1%	53.5%	54.0%		96%	53.0%	53.1%	53.3%	53.4%	53.6%
65%	51.9%	52.6%	53.0%	53.4%	53.9%		97%	52.8%	52.9%	53.1%	53.2%	53.4%
63%	51.8%	52.5%	52.9%	53.3%	53.8%		98%	52.5%	52.7%	52.8%	53.0%	53.2%
61%	51.7%	52.4%	52.8%	53.2%	53.7%		99%	52.3%	52.5%	52.6%	52.8%	52.9%
	Battleground							Battleground
52.71%	54%	57%	59%	61%	63%		52.71%	95%	96%	97%	98%	99%
69%	51.8%	52.4%	52.8%	53.2%	53.6%		95%	52.9%	53.1%	53.2%	53.4%	53.6%
67%	51.7%	52.4%	52.8%	53.2%	53.6%		96%	52.7%	52.9%	53.0%	53.2%	53.3%
65%	51.7%	52.3%	52.7%	53.1%	53.5%		97%	52.5%	52.6%	52.8%	52.9%	53.1%
63%	51.6%	52.2%	52.7%	53.1%	53.5%		98%	52.2%	52.4%	52.6%	52.7%	52.9%
61%	51.6%	52.2%	52.6%	53.0%	53.4%		99%	52.0%	52.2%	52.3%	52.5%	52.6%
	2004 Battleground state vote shares before and after allocating new and returning Nader 2000 voters
	National			Oregon			New York			California
2000	Dem	Bush	Other	Dem	Bush	Other	Dem	Bush	Other	Dem	Bush	Other
Recorded	51004	50456	3950	720	714	100	4108	2403	311	5861	4567	538
Share	48.39%	47.87%	3.75%	46.96%	46.52%	6.52%	60.21%	35.23%	4.56%	53.45%	41.65%	4.91%
Cast	55066	51810	3950	724	715	100	4244	2449	311	6253	4698	538
Alive	52313	49220	3753	688	679	95	4032	2326	295	5940	4463	511
Turnout	51266	48235	3677	674	666	93	3951	2280	290	5822	4374	501
Nader/other	2390	478	809	61	12	20	188	38	64	326	65	110
DNV 2k	13309	8797	451	238	157	8	782	372	24	1100	590	34
Total	66965	57510	1260	973	834	29	4921	2690	87	7247	5029	145
2004
True Vote	53.3%	45.7%	1.0%	53.0%	45.4%	1.6%	63.9%	34.9%	1.1%	58.3%	40.5%	1.2%
Recorded	59028	62041	1224	943	867	27	4314	2963	114	6745	5510	165
Share	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	51.35%	47.19%	1.46%	58.37%	40.08%	1.54%	54.31%	44.36%	1.32%
Swing	-0.1%	2.9%	-2.7%	4.4%	0.7%	-5.1%	-1.8%	4.9%	-3.0%	0.9%	2.7%	-3.6%
Exit Poll	52.0%	47.0%	1.0%	52.2%	46.3%	1.5%	64.5%	34.0%	1.5%	60.1%	38.6%	1.3%
EP- True	-1.3%	1.3%	0.0%	-0.8%	0.9%	-0.1%	0.6%	-0.9%	0.4%	1.8%	-1.9%	0.1%
EP-Recorded	3.7%	-3.7%	0.0%	0.9%	-0.9%	0.0%	6.1%	-6.1%	0.0%	5.8%	-5.8%	0.0%
Pre-elect	47.9%	46.9%	1.0%	50.0%	44.0%	1.6%	57.0%	39.0%	1.1%	49.0%	42.0%	1.2%
Projected	51.0%	47.9%	1.0%	53.3%	45.1%	1.6%	59.1%	39.7%	1.1%	54.9%	44.0%	1.2%
EP-Project	0.9%	-0.9%	0.0%	-1.1%	1.2%	-0.1%	5.4%	-5.7%	0.4%	5.2%	-5.4%	0.1%
	Florida			Ohio			Iowa			Missouri
2000	Dem	Bush	Other	Dem	Bush	Other	Dem	Bush	Other	Dem	Bush	Other
Recorded	2913	2913	138	2186	2351	168	639	634	42	1111	1190	59
Share	48.84%	48.84%	2.31%	46.46%	49.97%	3.57%	48.55%	48.23%	3.22%	47.08%	50.42%	2.50%
Cast	3056	2961	138	2274	2381	168	674	646	42	1335	1265	59
Alive	2903	2812	131	2161	2262	159	641	614	40	1269	1201	56
Turnout	2845	2756	128	2118	2216	156	628	602	39	1243	1177	55
Nader/other	84	17	28	102	20	34	26	5	9	36	7	12
DNV 2k	1099	744	38	896	562	30	139	95	5	146	104	5
Total	4027	3517	66	3115	2799	64	792	701	13	1425	1289	17
2004
True Vote	52.9%	46.2%	0.9%	52.1%	46.8%	1.1%	52.6%	46.5%	0.9%	52.2%	47.2%	0.6%
Recorded	3584	3965	62	2741	2860	27	742	752	13	1259	1456	16
Share	47.1%	52.1%	0.8%	48.9%	51.1%	0.5%	49.2%	49.9%	0.9%	46.1%	53.3%	0.6%
Swing	-1.8%	3.3%	-1.5%	2.5%	1.1%	-3.1%	0.7%	1.7%	-2.4%	-1.0%	2.9%	-1.9%
Exit Poll	51.0%	48.2%	0.8%	54.0%	45.5%	0.5%	50.7%	48.4%	0.9%	49.0%	50.3%	0.7%
EP- True	-1.9%	2.0%	-0.1%	1.9%	-1.3%	-0.6%	-1.9%	1.9%	0.0%	-3.2%	3.1%	0.1%
	3.9%	-3.9%	0.0%	5.1%	-5.6%	0.0%	1.5%	-1.5%	0.0%	2.9%	-3.0%	0.1%
Pre-elect	50.0%	47.0%	0.9%	50.0%	47.0%	1.1%	50.0%	44.0%	0.9%	44.0%	48.0%	0.6%
Projected	51.6%	47.5%	0.9%	51.4%	47.5%	1.1%	53.8%	45.3%	0.9%	49.5%	49.8%	0.6%
EP-Project	-0.6%	0.7%	-0.1%	2.6%	-2.0%	-0.6%	-3.1%	3.1%	0.0%	-0.5%	0.5%	0.1%
	Pennsylvania			Michigan			New Mexico			Wisconsin
2000	Dem	Bush	Other	Dem	Bush	Other	Dem	Bush	Other	Dem	Bush	Other
Recorded	2486	2281	146	2170	1953	109	287	286	25	1243	1237	118
Share	50.60%	46.43%	2.97%	51.28%	46.15%	2.58%	47.94%	47.88%	4.18%	47.84%	47.62%	4.54%
Cast	2542	2300	146	2253	1981	109	323	299	25	1268	1246	118
Alive	2415	2185	139	2141	1882	104	307	284	24	1205	1183	112
Turnout	2367	2141	136	2098	1844	101	301	278	23	1181	1160	110
Nader/other	88	18	30	66	13	22	15	3	5	71	14	24
DNV 2k	685	418	22	481	299	16	92	59	3	323	213	11
Total	3140	2577	52	2645	2156	38	408	340	8	1575	1387	35
2004
True Vote	54.4%	44.7%	0.9%	54.7%	44.6%	0.8%	53.9%	45.0%	1.1%	52.6%	46.3%	1.2%
Recorded	2938	2794	38	2479	2314	46	371	377	8	1490	1478	29
Share	50.9%	48.4%	0.7%	51.2%	47.8%	1.0%	49.0%	49.8%	1.1%	49.7%	49.3%	1.0%
Swing	0.3%	2.0%	-2.3%	0.0%	1.7%	-1.6%	1.1%	2.0%	-3.1%	1.9%	1.7%	-3.6%
Exit Poll	55.1%	44.2%	0.7%	54.4%	44.6%	1.0%	53.0%	45.8%	1.2%	52.1%	46.9%	1.0%
EP- True	0.7%	-0.5%	-0.2%	-0.3%	0.0%	0.2%	-0.9%	0.8%	0.1%	-0.5%	0.6%	-0.2%
EP-Record	4.2%	-4.2%	0.0%	3.2%	-3.2%	0.0%	4.0%	-4.0%	0.1%	2.4%	-2.4%	0.0%
Pre-elect	50.0%	45.0%	0.9%	52.0%	45.0%	0.8%	49.0%	49.0%	1.1%	51.0%	44.0%	1.2%
Projected	53.1%	46.0%	0.9%	53.7%	45.6%	0.8%	49.7%	49.2%	1.1%	53.9%	45.0%	1.2%
EP-Project	2.0%	-1.8%	-0.2%	0.7%	-1.0%	0.2%	3.3%	-3.4%	0.1%	-1.8%	1.9%	-0.2%
	Washingtom			Colorado			Connecticut			Minnesota
2000	Dem	Bush	Other	Dem	Bush	Other	Dem	Bush	Other	Dem	Bush	Other
Recorded	1248	1109	132	738	884	119	816	561	82	1168	1110	161
Share	50.14%	44.56%	5.30%	42.39%	50.78%	6.84%	55.93%	38.45%	5.62%	47.89%	45.51%	6.60%
Cast	1277	1119	132	657	857	119	721	529	82	1121	1094	161
Alive	1213	1063	125	624	814	113	685	503	78	1065	1040	153
Turnout	1188	1041	123	612	798	111	671	493	76	1043	1019	150
Nader/other	80	16	27	72	14	24	50	10	17	97	19	33
DNV 2k	313	183	10	353	245	12	221	112	7	378	226	12
Total	1582	1240	37	1037	1057	37	941	614	24	1519	1264	45
2004
True Vote	55.3%	43.4%	1.3%	48.7%	49.6%	1.7%	59.6%	38.9%	1.5%	53.7%	44.7%	1.6%
Recorded	1510	1305	44	1002	1101	27	857	694	27	1445	1347	37
Share	52.8%	45.6%	1.5%	47.0%	51.7%	1.3%	54.3%	44.0%	1.7%	51.1%	47.6%	1.3%
Swing	2.7%	1.1%	-3.8%	4.7%	0.9%	-5.6%	-1.6%	5.5%	-3.9%	3.2%	2.1%	-5.3%
Exit Poll	56.8%	41.6%	1.5%	50.1%	48.6%	1.3%	62.3%	35.9%	1.8%	55.9%	43.0%	1.1%
EP- True	1.5%	-1.7%	0.3%	1.4%	-1.0%	-0.4%	2.7%	-3.0%	0.3%	2.2%	-1.7%	-0.5%
EP-Record	4.0%	-4.0%	0.0%	3.1%	-3.1%	0.0%	8.0%	-8.1%	0.1%	4.8%	-4.6%	-0.2%
Pre-elect	52.0%	44.0%	1.3%	47.0%	48.0%	1.7%	52.0%	42.0%	1.5%	52.0%	44.0%	1.6%
Projected	54.0%	44.7%	1.3%	49.5%	48.8%	1.7%	55.4%	43.1%	1.5%	53.8%	44.6%	1.6%
EP-Project	2.8%	-3.0%	0.3%	0.6%	-0.2%	-0.4%	6.9%	-7.2%	0.3%	2.1%	-1.6%	-0.5%
	Nevada			New Hampshire			North Carolina			Virginia
2000	Dem	Bush	Other	Dem	Bush	Other	Dem	Bush	Other	Dem	Bush	Other
Recorded	280	302	27	266	274	29	1250	1631	22	1217	1437	84
Share	45.98%	49.59%	4.43%	46.75%	48.15%	5.10%	43.06%	56.18%	0.76%	44.45%	52.48%	3.07%
Cast	304	310	27	268	275	29	1319	1654	22	1385	1493	84
Alive	289	295	26	254	261	28	1253	1571	21	1316	1418	80
Turnout	283	289	25	249	256	27	1228	1540	20	1289	1390	78
Nader/other	16	3	6	18	4	6	13	3	5	51	10	17
DNV 2k	139	90	5	91	53	3	410	288	14	254	177	9
Total	438	382	10	357	312	9	1651	1831	19	1594	1578	26
2004
True Vote	52.8%	46.0%	1.2%	52.7%	46.0%	1.3%	47.2%	52.3%	0.5%	49.9%	49.3%	0.8%
Recorded	397	419	14	341	331	6	1526	1961	14	1455	1717	27
Share	47.8%	50.5%	1.7%	50.7%	49.3%	0.9%	43.6%	56.0%	0.4%	45.5%	53.7%	0.8%
Swing	1.9%	0.9%	-2.7%	4.0%	1.1%	-4.2%	0.5%	-0.2%	-0.4%	1.0%	1.2%	-2.2%
Exit Poll	52.8%	45.5%	1.7%	57.2%	41.9%	0.9%	49.5%	50.1%	0.4%	49.8%	49.3%	0.9%
EP- True	0.0%	-0.5%	0.5%	4.5%	-4.1%	-0.4%	2.3%	-2.2%	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
EP-Record	5.0%	-5.0%	0.0%	6.5%	-7.4%	0.0%	5.9%	-5.9%	0.0%	4.3%	-4.4%	0.1%
Pre-elect	49.0%	49.0%	1.2%	47.0%	47.0%	1.3%	47.0%	50.0%	0.5%	47.0%	51.0%	0.8%
Projected	49.6%	49.2%	1.2%	50.5%	48.2%	1.3%	48.8%	50.6%	0.5%	47.9%	51.3%	0.8%
EP-Project	3.2%	-3.7%	0.5%	6.7%	-6.3%	-0.4%	0.7%	-0.5%	-0.1%	1.9%	-2.0%	0.1%

National 2004 True Vote Model

	2000								Turnout		Unctd / stuffed
	Cast	Official	Unctd	Alive	Cast	Official	Unct	Mort	Gore	Bush	Gore	Bush	Other
	110.8	105.4	5.4	105.3	125.7	122.3	3.4	6.1	98%	98%	75%	24%	1%
	-	95.1%	4.9%	95.0%	-	97.3%	2.7%	5.0%	-	-	0%	100%	-
	National	Vote (mil)		390 EV		Pct	Share (%)			Vote (mil)
MoE	2000	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other	Turnout
1.7%	DNV	-	-	-	22.4	17.8	59%	39%	2%	13.2	8.7	0.45
1.0%	Gore	55.4	51.0	52.7	51.6	41.0	91	8	1	47.0	4.1	0.51	98%
1.0%	Bush	51.4	50.5	48.8	47.8	38.0	10	90	0	4.8	43.0	0.00	98%
1.7%	Other	0.0	4.0	4.0	3.9	3.1	65	13	22	2.5	0.5	0.85	98%
	True Vote	111.0	105.4	105.4	125.7		53.7	44.9	1.4	67.5	56.4	1.81	98%
	2000	Gore	Bush	Other	Recorded		48.3	50.7	1.0	59.0	62.0	1.22	122.3
	Recorded	48.4	47.9	3.8	Diff		5.4	-5.9	0.4	8.5	-5.6	0.59
	Cast	50.0	46.3	3.8	Exit Poll		51.9	47.1	1.0	63.5	57.6	1.23	122.3
	Exit Poll	49.4	46.9	3.7	Diff		1.8	-2.2	0.4	4.0	-1.1	0.59
	Sensitivity Analysis
	Bush		Gore voter turnout					Share of		Kerry Share of DNV
	Turnout	90%	92%	94%	96%	98%		Bush	57%	58%	59%	60%	61%
			Kerry Share (%)							Kerry Share (%)
	90%	54.1	54.4	54.7	54.9	55.2		12%	54.1	54.3	54.4	54.6	54.8
	92%	53.7	54.0	54.3	54.5	54.8		11%	53.7	53.9	54.1	54.2	54.4
	94%	53.4	53.6	53.9	54.2	54.4		10%	53.3	53.5	53.7	53.9	54.0
	96%	53.0	53.3	53.5	53.8	54.1		9%	52.9	53.1	53.3	53.5	53.7
	98%	52.6	52.9	53.1	53.4	53.7		8%	52.6	52.7	52.9	53.1	53.3
			Kerry Margin (mil.)							Kerry Margin (mil.)
	90%	12.2	12.9	13.5	14.2	14.9		12%	12.1	12.5	13.0	13.4	13.9
	92%	11.3	11.9	12.6	13.3	13.9		11%	11.1	11.6	12.0	12.5	12.9
	94%	10.3	11.0	11.6	12.3	13.0		10%	10.2	10.6	11.1	11.5	12.0
	96%	9.4	10.0	10.7	11.4	12.0		9%	9.2	9.7	10.1	10.6	11.0
	98%	8.4	9.1	9.7	10.4	11.1		8%	8.3	8.7	9.2	9.6	10.1
			Kerry Electoral Vote							Kerry Electoral Vote
	90%	390	398	398	413	413		12%	390	390	398	398	413
	92%	390	390	398	398	413		11%	398	398	398	413	413
	94%	379	390	390	390	398		10%	398	398	398	413	413
	96%	357	370	390	390	390		9%	390	390	398	398	413
	98%	351	357	370	390	390		8%	390	390	390	390	390
	MoE	1.0%	0.9%	0.8%	0.7%	0.5%		MoE	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%

Oregon 2004 True Vote Model

	2000								Turnout		Unctd / stuffed
	Cast	Official	Unctd	Alive	Cast	Official	Unct	Mort	Gore	Bush	Gore	Bush	Other
	110.8	105.4	5.4	105.3	125.7	122.3	3.4	6.1	98%	98%	75%	24%	1%
	-	95.1%	4.9%	95.0%	-	97.3%	2.7%	5.0%	-	-	0%	100%	-
	OR	Vote (mil)				Pct	Share (%)			Vote (mil)
MoE	2000	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other	Turnout
1.7%	DNV	-	-	-	0.41	22.5	59%	39%	2%	0.24	0.16	0.01
1.0%	Gore	0.72	0.72	0.68	0.67	36.5	91	8	1	0.61	0.05	0.01	98%
1.0%	Bush	0.71	0.71	0.67	0.66	35.9	10	90	0	0.07	0.59	0.00	98%
1.7%	Other	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.09	5.1	65	13	22	0.06	0.01	0.02	98%
	True Vote	1.53	1.53	1.45	1.84		53.4	44.7	1.9	0.98	0.82	0.04	98%
	2000	Gore	Bush	Other	Recorded		51.4	47.2	1.4	0.94	0.87	0.03	1.84
	Recorded	47.0	46.5	6.5	Diff		2.0	-2.5	0.5	0.04	-0.05	0.01
	Cast	47.1	46.3	6.5
	Sensitivity Analysis
	Bush		Gore voter turnout					Share of		Kerry Share of DNV
	turnout	90%	92%	94%	96%	98%		Bush	57%	58%	59%	60%	61%
			Kerry Share (%)							Kerry Share (%)
	90%	53.8	54.1	54.3	54.6	54.8		12%	53.7	53.9	54.1	54.3	54.6
	92%	53.5	53.7	54.0	54.2	54.4		11%	53.3	53.5	53.7	54.0	54.2
	94%	53.1	53.4	53.6	53.9	54.1		10%	52.9	53.2	53.4	53.6	53.8
	96%	52.8	53.0	53.3	53.5	53.7		9%	52.6	52.8	53.0	53.3	53.5
	98%	52.4	52.7	52.9	53.2	53.4		8%	52.2	52.4	52.7	52.9	53.1
			Kerry Margin (mil.)							Kerry Margin (mil.)
	90%	0.18	0.19	0.19	0.20	0.21		12%	0.17	0.18	0.19	0.19	0.20
	92%	0.16	0.17	0.18	0.19	0.20		11%	0.16	0.16	0.17	0.18	0.19
	94%	0.15	0.16	0.17	0.18	0.19		10%	0.14	0.15	0.16	0.17	0.18
	96%	0.14	0.15	0.16	0.16	0.17		9%	0.13	0.14	0.15	0.16	0.16
	98%	0.13	0.13	0.14	0.15	0.16		8%	0.12	0.13	0.13	0.14	0.15

National 2008 True Vote Model

	2004								Turnout		Unctd / stuffed
	Cast	Official	Unctd	Alive	Cast	Official	Unctd	Mort	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Other
	125.7	122.3	3.4	119.4	132.6	131.4	1.2	6.6	97%	97%	75%	24%	1%
	-	97.3%	2.7%	95.0%	-	99.1%	0.9%	5.0%	-	-	0%	100%	-
	National	Vote (mil)		419 EV		Pct	Share (%)			Vote (mil)
MoE	2004	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama	McCain	Other	Turnout
1.6%	DNV	-	-	-	16.4	12.4	71%	27%	2%	11.7	4.4	0.33
1.1%	Kerry	67.2	59.0	63.9	61.9	46.8	89	10	1	55.1	6.2	0.62	97%
1.3%	Bush	57.0	62.0	54.1	52.5	39.7	17	82	1	8.9	43.0	0.52	97%
1.5%	Other	0.0	1.2	1.5	1.4	1.1	73	16	11	1.0	0.2	0.16