Oregon Mail-in Ballots vs. New York Levers: 2000-2008

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

Sept. 29, 2011

 

As a battleground state, one can expect that Oregon would closely match the will of the national electorate. Since Oregon votes 100% by mail and paper ballot precincts had the lowest (2%) discrepancies from the recorded vote, we can hypothesize that Oregon closely approximates the True National Vote share. In fact, Oregon's  recorded vote share closely approximated the National True Vote Model in 2000, 2004 and 2008. But unlike the other battleground and strong Democratic states which saw Bush increase his recorded vote share from 2000, Bush lost share in Oregon.

 

In 1992 Oregon had a 13.6% exit poll discrepancy. In 1996, it had a 10% uncounted vote rate. These anomalies may have had something to do with the 1998 decision to switch to all mail-in ballots.

 

In 2000, Gore won Oregon by 47.0-46.5%. He won by 48.4-47.9% nationwide. According to the 2000 Census, there were 5.4 million net uncounted  votes. The majority (70-80% ) of uncounted votes are Democratic. If Gore had 75% (4.0 million) of the uncounted votes, his True Vote margin (based on total votes cast) was 55.0-51.9 million (49.6-46.8%) - a virtual match to his 49.4-46.9% aggregate state exit poll margin.

 

Do you agree that these results indicate that Oregon closely reflects the national electorate?

 

In 2004, Kerry won Oregon by 51.4-47.2%. Bush won the national recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. Oregon voters were surveyed by telephone. The discrepancy from the recorded vote was 1.8%. In the other 14 battleground states, the average exit poll discrepancy (WPD) was a whopping 7.5%.

 

Is it just a coincidence that Bush’s 2004 Oregon mail-in ballot vote share (with its mandated random audit) declined from his 2000 share while his vote shares increased in Democratic and battleground states with unverifiable DRE and mechanical vote counts and no mandated audit of optical scan ballots? 

 

Regarding the 2004 election, which do you believe?

 a) Oregon’s vote share confirms the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Kerry 52.0-Bush 47.0%) or b) The recorded national share (Bush by 50.7- 48.3%) accurately reflected the True share (i.e. there was little or no fraud). If you believe a), then you must also believe that Kerry must have done better than Gore nationwide and easily won the election.

 

One would logically expect that Kerry would do better than Gore in highly Democratic New York State. But that was not the case. Gore won NY by 25% (60-35%). Kerry won by only 18% (58-40%). Not logical, especially since Kerry won the exit poll by 30% (64-34%). The exit poll makes sense; Kerry had a 5-1 edge in returning Nader 2000 voters.

 

Do you believe the NY recorded vote or the exit poll?

 

Considering the results from 2000 and 2004, do you believe a) that Obama’s Oregon 56.7% recorded share was a close match to his national True Vote Model 58.0% share or b) his recorded 52.9% share? If you believe a) then you must also believe that massive fraud cut Obama’s margin by 13.0 million votes (from 22.5 to 9.5 million).

 

Consider the following:

 

1. In 2000, Gore won Oregon by 47.0-46.5%, matching his 48.4-47.9% national (51.0-50.456 million) vote margin.  The national aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls indicated that Gore won by 49.4-46.9% (52.6-49.4 million).

 

2. At 7:33pm the 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won returning Nader 2000 voters 65-13% over Bush. After allocating Nader voters, Gore’s margin becomes 50.6-48.4%.

 

3. Kerry exceeded Gore’s margin in Oregon by 3.7% (51.4-47.2%), closely matching the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (52.0-47%).

 

4. Kerry won the exit pollster’s Oregon telephone survey by 52.3-46.3%, a slight 1.8% discrepancy from the state recorded vote. 

 

5. Kerry won the national aggregate unadjusted state exit polls by 52.0-47.0%, a 1.0% margin discrepancy from the telephone survey.

 

6. The average WPD In 14 battleground states was a whopping 7.5%. In Oregon, the telephone survey WPD equivalent was just 1.8%.

 

7. At 7:33pm the National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won returning Nader 2000 voters 65-13% over Bush. After allocating Nader voters, Gore’s margin becomes 50.6-48.4%.

 

8. Obama won Oregon by 56.7-40.4%, closely matching 1) the 58.4% post-election survey, 2) the state exit poll national aggregate (57.9%), 3) the Oregon True Vote model (57.1%) and 4) the National True Vote Model (58.0%).  But his recorded share was just 52.9%.  One would expect that the Oregon share would closely match the national share.

 

To summarize, Oregon matched the 2000 national recorded vote and within 2% of the aggregate exit poll. It closely matched the 2004 national exit poll but was far from the recorded vote.  In 2008, Oregon closely matched the True Vote model, the aggregate unadjusted state exit polls.

 

Now let’s consider New York. In 2000, Gore won the state by 25% (60.2-35.2%). In 2004, Kerry’s recorded margin declined to 18.3% (58.4-40.1%). But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 64.5-34.0%, a 12.2% WPD.  Why the sharp reversal of fortune?

 

Consider the largest counties in Oregon and New York, Multnomah (OR) and Kings (NY):

Gore won Multnomah by 63.5-28.2%. Kerry won it by 71.6-27.4%, an 8.9% HIGHER margin.

Gore won Kings County (Brooklyn) by 74.7-15.0%. Kerry won it by 74.2-22.8%, an 8.6% LOWER margin.

 

It’s an Urban Legend: Bush recorded vote share increased sharply from 2000 to 2004 in heavily Democratic urban areas but declined in rural locations, except for Oregon (the only 100% mail-in paper ballot state).

 

Oregon

1) Oregon votes using paper ballots (mailed or delivered) .

2) In 2004, the average paper ballot precinct WPD was 2% and 12% for levers.

3) Kerry’s margin was 3.7% higher than Gore’s in Oregon (a battleground state), but 6.7% lower in New York (a strong Democratic state).

4) Kerry exceeded Gore’s margin by 8.9% in Oregon’s largest county (Multnomah) but Gore exceeded Kerry by 8.6% in New York’s largest (Kings).

5) Oregon’s 1.8% vote discrepancy in the 2004 telephone survey was far less than the other 14 battleground states average 7.5% WPD.

6) Oregon closely matched the 2004 aggregate exit poll after allocating returning Nader voters and the 2008 aggregate.

7) Oregon mandates that randomly selected counties hand-count paper ballots  (see 254.525, 258.211, comments).

 

New York

8) New York votes are cast on levers, but counted on computers; there is no way to verify them.

9) Gore won NY by 60.2-35.2%. Allocating the 4.6% Nader/other vote, Kerry wins by 63-36% - assuming equal Gore/Bush defection.

10) According to the Preliminary National Exit Poll, before it was forced to match the vote count, 10% of returning Bush and 8% of returning Gore voters defected.

Assuming these rates, Kerry’s NY margin increased 2% to 64-35%, matching the unadjusted NY State Exit Poll.

 

11) Gore did slightly better than his 60.2% NY recorded share after allocating 180,000 net uncounted votes.

12) In the two elections in which Clinton was the incumbent, the NY exit polls had an average 0.6 WPD .

13) In the three elections in which a Bush was the incumbent, NY exit polls had an average 8.0 WPD.

13) In the last three elections, late NY Democratic (paper) vote shares were 7% higher than Election Day (lever) shares.

14) In 2000, 2004 and 2008, the average of NY Late (paper ballot) vote shares was within 1% of the unadjusted exit poll.

 

If one ignores all of the above, there is every reason for New Yorkers to “love those levers” – except for this: Even if everyone who came to the polls voted and all the lever machines performed perfectly, the fact remains that votes are counted by proprietary computer software, not open source, which can easily be programmed to switch votes that may or may not have been entered accurately.  Ay, there’s the rub.

 

In 2004, the exit pollsters reported that lever voting machine precincts had a 12% error (WPD) rate. Optical scanners and touch screens were 7%. Paper ballot precincts had the lowest (2%). Is the fog lifting?  What happened in 2004 should be very clear by now.

 

In the 2008 NY primary, zero votes were originally reported for Obama in nearly eighty minority precincts. Many New Yorkers love the levers. They have been led to believe that because levers are not computers, they are not subject to vote-switching and therefore essentially fraud-free. But lever precinct totals are tabulated on central computers which can be programmed to switch votes. And there are no paper ballots to verify the count – except for late provisional and absentee ballots which comprise about 7% of votes cast.

 

In Oregon, the ballots are separated from the return envelope before they are inspected. This process ensures confidentiality. The votes are counted on Election Day. A record is kept showing each voter whose ballot has been returned. No expensive voting machines, no corrupted election officials, no long lines, no machine breakdowns. In 1996, over 10% of votes cast were uncounted, but the rate has declined sharply since the switch to mail in 1998.

 

Oregon mail-in ballots are counted electronically, but there is a paper trail if a hand recount is necessary. In New York, computers also do the counting based on reported Lever totals– but there are no paper ballots to check the count. Levers are used to cast, but not count votes. Lever advocates don’t want to talk about that.

 

Oregonians don’t worry about insufficient precinct levers, machine failures, vote counts terminating at 99, stuck levers, long lines, intimidation by poll workers, and unverifiable vote counts.

No wonder Oregonians are happy with their voting system. Why don't the other 49 states follow suit? They should HAVA look at how Oregon saves a ton of money and how real democracy works.

 

Oregon vs. New York

 

National                                   Oregon                                     New York                               

2000                        Gore        Bush        Margin     Gore        Bush        Margin     Gore        Bush        Margin

Recorded                 48.4         47.9         0.5           47.0         46.5         0.5           60.2         35.2         25.0

Exit Poll                   49.4         46.9         2.5           na            na            na            61.9         33.6         28.3

Rec + Nader             50.6         48.4         2.2           51.2         47.4         3.8           63.2         35.8         27.4        

 

2004                        Kerry       Bush        Margin     Kerry       Bush        Margin     Kerry       Bush        Margin

Recorded                 48.3         50.7         -2.4          51.4         47.2         4.2           58.4         40.1         18.3

Exit Poll                   52.0         47.0         5.0           52.3         46.3         6.0           64.5         34.0         30.5

 

2008                        Obama     McCain    Margin     Obama     McCain    Margin     Obama     McCain    Margin

Recorded                 52.9         45.6         7.3           56.8         40.4         16.4         62.8         36.1         26.7

True                         58.0         40.3         17.7         57.1         40.7         16.4         67.4         31.8         35.6

 

 

New York

 

Note: The declining trend in net uncounted votes was reversed in 2004.

The exit poll discrepancies were small in 1996 and 2000 when Clinton was president.

The exit poll discrepancies were high in 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 when Bush 1 and 2 were president.

 

Net           Recorded Vote         75/25       Adj          Unctd       Unadjusted Exit Poll                               

                Cast         Recorded Unctd       Dem         Rep          Unctd       Dem         Rep          WPD        Dem         Rep         

 

2008        7722        7595        127          62.8%      36.1%      1.6%        63.0%      35.9%      (17.5)      71.5%      27.3%

2004        7698        7391        307          58.4%      40.1%      4.0%        59.0%      39.5%      (12.2)      64.5%      34.0%

2000        7004        6823        181          60.2%      35.2%      2.6%        60.6%      35.0%      (3.3)        61.9%      33.6%

1996        6823        6316        507          59.5%      30.6%      7.4%        60.6%      30.2%      2.1           58.4%      31.7%

1992        7613        6927        686          49.7%      33.9%      9.0%        52.0%      33.1%      (4.6)        52.0%      31.6%

1988        7174        6486        688          51.6%      47.5%      9.6%        53.9%      45.4%      (7.2)        55.2%      43.9%

 

 

New York Late (paper ballot) vs. Election Day (Lever) Vote

 

                                                Election Day (lever)                 Late (paper)            

                                Vote         Dem         Share       Vote         Dem         Share       Exit Poll  

2000                        6,270       3,747       59.8%      552          361          65.4%      61.9%     

2004                        6,892       3,993       57.9%      499          321          64.3%      64.5%     

2008                        7,011       4,360       62.2%      584          412          70.7%      71.5%                                                                                                                     

 

Total                        20,174     12,100     60.0%      1,635       1,094       66.9%      66.0%

 

 

 

Oregon-Multnomah County

http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/dbcs/elections/election_information/voting_in_oregon.shtml

 

2004                        Total        Kerry       Bush        Other       Undervote Overvote

Votes                       362,694   259,585   99,439     3,670       1,831              1,005

Share                       100%       71.6%      27.4%      1.0%        64.6%             35.4%

 

2000                        Total        Gore        Bush        Other       Undervote Overvote

Votes                       296,685 188,441     83,677     24,567     1,658              1,433

Share                       100%       63.5%      28.2%      8.3%        53.6%             46.4%

 

Change                     66,009     71,144     15,762     -20,897   

Share                       100%       81.9%     18.1%     

 

 

New York-Kings County (Brooklyn)

 

2004                        Total        Kerry       Bush        Other

Votes                       693,703   514,973   158,149   20,581

Share                       100%       74.2%      22.8%      3.0%

 

2000                        Total        Gore        Bush        Other

Votes                       642,563   480,135   96,609     65,819

Share                       100%       74.7%      15.0%      10.2%

                                               

Change                     51,140     34,838     61,540     -45,238

Share                       100%      36.15%     63.85%   

 

 

Oregon

2004 and 2008 WPD are from telephone surveys. 

The OR margin matched the national recorded margin to within 0.1% in 1996 and 2000 (Democratic incumbent) but deviated by an average of 8.4% in 1988, 1992, 2004, 2008 (Republican incumbent).

In 1996, 10.2% of votes cast were uncounted. The rate has declined sharply since the switch to mail ballots in 1998.

 

                Votes                       Net           Recorded                                75/25%    Adjusted                  Unadj Exit Poll        National Recorded   OR-Nat   

                Cast         Recorded Unctd       Dem         Rep          Unctd       Dem         Rep          WPD        Dem         Rep          Dem         Rep          Margin

 

2008        1845        1828        17            56.7%      40.4%      0.9%        56.9%      40.3%      (1.5)        58.0%      40.2%      52.9%      45.6%      9.0%

2004        1924        1837        87            51.4         47.2         4.5           52.3         46.3         (1.8)        52.2         46.3         48.3         50.7         6.6

2000        1529        1534        (5)           47.0         46.5         -0.3          47.1         46.3         na            na            na            48.4         47.9         0.0

1996        1534        1378        156          47.2         39.1         10.2         50.0         37.6         (2.4)        48.4         37.9         47.4         39.2         0.1

1992        1525        1463        62            42.5         32.5         4.1           43.8         32.2         (13.6)      49.3         25.7         43.0         37.4         4.4

1988        1293        1202        92            51.3         46.6         7.1           53.0         45.1         (7.4)        55.0         42.9         45.7         54.4         13.4

 

 

 

2004 Oregon True Vote

 

2000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout in 2004

      Unctd / stuffed

Cast

Official

Unctd

Alive

Cast

Official

Unctd

Mortality

Gore

Bush

Gore

Bush

Other

110.8

105.4

5.4

105.3

125.7

122.3

3.4

6.1

98%

98%

75%

24%

1%

-

95.1%

4.9%

95.0%

-

97.3%

2.7%

5.0%

-

-

0%

100%

 -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OR

Vote (mil)

 

 

Pct

Share (%)

 

Vote (mil)

 

 

2000

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

 -

 -

 -

0.41

22.5

57

41

2

0.24

0.17

0.01

 

Gore

0.72

0.72

0.68

0.67

36.5

91

8

1

0.61

0.05

0.01

98%

Bush

0.71

0.71

0.67

0.66

35.9

10

90

0

0.07

0.59

0.00

98%

Other

0.10

0.10

0.10

0.09

5.07

64

17

19

0.06

0.02

0.02

98%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True

1.53

1.53

1.45

1.84

 

52.89

45.33

1.78

0.97

0.83

0.03

98%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

51.35

47.19

1.46

0.94

0.87

0.03

1.8

Recorded

46.96

46.52

6.52

Diff

 

1.54

-1.86

0.32

0.03

-0.03

0.01

 

Cast

46.96

46.52

6.52

Exit Poll

52.2

46.3

1.5

1.0

0.9

0.0

1.8

ExitP

46.96

46.52

6.52

Diff

 

0.6

-1.0

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

 

Gore voter turnout

 

 

Share of

Kerry Share of DNV

 

turnout

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

 

Bush

55%

56%

57%

58%

59%

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

95%

53.0

53.1

53.3

53.4

53.5

 

12%

53.2

53.4

53.6

53.8

54.1

96%

52.8

53.0

53.1

53.2

53.4

 

11%

52.8

53.0

53.2

53.5

53.7

97%

52.7

52.8

52.9

53.1

53.2

 

10%

52.4

52.7

52.9

53.1

53.3

98%

52.5

52.6

52.8

52.9

53.0

 

9%

52.1

52.3

52.5

52.8

53.0

99%

52.3

52.5

52.6

52.7

52.8

 

8%

51.7

51.9

52.2

52.4

52.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

95%

0.14

0.15

0.15

0.16

0.16

 

12%

0.15

0.16

0.17

0.17

0.18

96%

0.14

0.14

0.15

0.15

0.16

 

11%

0.14

0.14

0.15

0.16

0.17

97%

0.13

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.15

 

10%

0.12

0.13

0.14

0.15

0.16

98%

0.13

0.13

0.13

0.14

0.14

 

9%

0.11

0.12

0.13

0.13

0.14

99%

0.12

0.12

0.13

0.13

0.14

 

8%

0.10

0.10

0.11

0.12

0.13

 

 

2008 Oregon True Vote

 

OR

Vote (mil)

 

 

Pct

Share (%)

 

Vote (mil)

 

 

2004

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Total

DNV

 -

 -

 -

0.07

3.9

75.0

25.0

0.0

0.05

0.02

0.00

0.07

Kerry

1.01

0.94

0.96

0.93

50.2

89.8

8.3

1.9

0.83

0.08

0.02

0.93

Bush

0.89

0.87

0.85

0.82

44.5

18.3

79.9

1.9

0.15

0.66

0.02

0.82

Other

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

1.4

66.0

1.8

32.1

0.02

0.00

0.01

0.03

 

True

1.92

1.84

1.83

1.85

 

57.1

40.7

2.24

1.05

0.75

0.04

1.85

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Recorded

56.7

40.4

2.85

1.04

0.74

0.05

1.83

Recorded

51.35

47.19

1.46

Diff

 

0.31

0.29

-0.61

0.02

0.01

-0.01

0.02

ExitP

51.25

46.29

1.46

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

51.29

47.27

1.44

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True

53.82

43.60

2.58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

 

Kerry voter turnout

 

 

Share of

Obama Share of DNV

turnout

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

 

Bush

71%

72%

73%

74%

75%

 

 

Obama Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Obama Share (%)

 

90%

58.4

58.5

58.7

58.8

59.0

 

19%

57.2

57.3

57.3

57.4

57.4

92%

57.8

58.0

58.1

58.3

58.4

 

18%

56.8

56.8

56.9

56.9

57.0

94%

57.3

57.5

57.6

57.8

57.9

 

17%

56.4

56.4

56.4

56.5

56.5

96%

56.8

56.9

57.1

57.2

57.4

 

16%

55.9

55.9

56.0

56.0

56.1

98%

56.3

56.4

56.6

56.7

56.9

 

15%

55.5

55.5

55.5

55.6

55.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

Obama Margin (mil.)

 

90%

0.35

0.35

0.36

0.36

0.37

 

19%

0.31

0.31

0.31

0.31

0.31

92%

0.33

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.35

 

18%

0.29

0.29

0.30

0.30

0.30

94%

0.31

0.32

0.32

0.33

0.33

 

17%

0.28

0.28

0.28

0.28

0.28

96%

0.29

0.30

0.30

0.31

0.31

 

16%

0.26

0.26

0.26

0.26

0.27

98%

0.27

0.28

0.28

0.29

0.30

 

15%

0.24

0.24

0.25

0.25

0.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 New York True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

National

 

 

2004

 

 

 

Turnout in 2004

      Unctd / stuffed

Cast

Official

Unctd

Alive

Cast

Official

Unctd

Mortality

Gore

Bush

Gore

Bush

Other

110.8

105.4

5.4

105.3

125.7

122.3

3.4

6.1

98%

98%

75%

24%

1%

-

95.1%

4.9%

95.0%

-

97.3%

2.7%

5.0%

-

-

0%

100%

 -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NY

New York Vote (mil)

 

 

Pct

Share (%)

 

Vote (mil)

 

 

2000

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Total

DNV

 -

 -

 -

1.2

15.3

66.0

30.9

3.1

0.8

0.4

0.0

1.2

Gore

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.0

51.3

92.9

5.6

1.5

3.7

0.2

0.1

4.0

Bush

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

29.6

12.1

87.9

0.0

0.3

2.0

0.0

2.3

Other

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

3.8

64.0

6.8

29.2

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.3

 

True

7.0

6.8

6.7

7.7

 

63.8

33.9

2.4

4.9

2.6

0.2

7.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

58.4

40.1

1.5

4.3

3.0

0.1

7.4

Recorded

60.2

35.2

4.6

Diff

 

5.4

-6.2

0.8

0.6

-0.4

0.1

0.3

ExitP

61.9

33.6

4.6

Exit Poll

64.5

34.0

1.5

4.8

2.5

0.1

7.4

Cast

60.6

34.9

4.5

Diff

 

-0.7

-0.1

0.8

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

True

61.1

34.4

4.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

 

Gore voter turnout

 

 

Share of

Kerry Share of DNV

 

turnout

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

 

Bush

57%

61%

65%

66%

67%

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

90%

64.0

64.2

64.5

64.8

65.1

 

12%

62.4

63.0

63.6

63.7

63.9

92%

63.6

63.9

64.2

64.5

64.8

 

11%

62.1

62.7

63.3

63.4

63.6

94%

63.3

63.6

63.9

64.1

64.4

 

10%

61.8

62.4

63.0

63.2

63.3

96%

63.0

63.3

63.5

63.8

64.1

 

9%

61.5

62.1

62.7

62.9

63.0

98%

62.6

62.9

63.2

63.5

63.8

 

8%

61.2

61.8

62.4

62.6

62.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

90%

2.33

2.38

2.42

2.46

2.50

 

12%

2.09

2.18

2.27

2.30

2.32

92%

2.28

2.33

2.37

2.41

2.45

 

11%

2.04

2.13

2.23

2.25

2.28

94%

2.23

2.28

2.32

2.36

2.40

 

10%

2.00

2.09

2.18

2.21

2.23

96%

2.18

2.23

2.27

2.31

2.35

 

9%

1.95

2.04

2.14

2.16

2.18

98%

2.13

2.18

2.22

2.26

2.30

 

8%

1.90

2.00

2.09

2.12

2.14

 

 

2008 New York True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

 

 

 

2008

 

 

 

Turnout in 2008

      Unctd / stuffed

Cast

Official

Unctd

Alive

Cast

Official

Unctd

Mortality

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Other

125.7

122.3

3.4

119.4

132.6

131.4

1.2

6.6

97%

97%

75%

24%

1%

-

97.3%

2.7%

95.0%

-

99.1%

0.9%

5.0%

-

-

0%

100%

 -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NY

Vote (mil)

 

 

Pct

Share (%)

 

Vote (mil)

 

 

2004

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Total

DNV

 -

 -

 -

0.6

8.1

78.1

21.9

0.0

0.5

0.1

0.0

0.6

Kerry

4.9

4.3

4.7

4.5

58.9

91.1

8.2

0.7

4.1

0.4

0.0

4.5

Bush

2.6

3.0

2.5

2.4

31.6

20.2

79.1

0.7

0.5

1.9

0.0

2.4

Other

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

1.4

66.0

21.7

12.3

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

 

True

7.7

7.4

7.3

7.7

 

67.4

31.8

0.8

5.2

2.5

0.1

7.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Recorded

62.8

36.1

1.1

4.8

2.7

0.1

7.6

Recorded

58.4

40.1

1.5

Diff

 

4.5

-4.2

-0.3

0.4

-0.3

0.0

0.1

ExitP

64.5

34.0

1.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

59.0

39.4

1.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True

64.1

34.4

1.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

 

Kerry voter turnout

 

 

Share of

Obama Share of DNV

turnout

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

 

Bush

76%

77%

78%

79%

80%

 

 

Obama Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Obama Share (%)

 

90%

68.1

68.2

68.4

68.5

68.7

 

19%

66.7

66.8

66.9

67.0

67.1

92%

67.7

67.8

68.0

68.2

68.3

 

18%

66.4

66.5

66.6

66.7

66.8

94%

67.3

67.5

67.6

67.8

67.9

 

17%

66.1

66.2

66.3

66.4

66.4

96%

66.9

67.1

67.2

67.4

67.6

 

16%

65.8

65.9

66.0

66.0

66.1

98%

66.5

66.7

66.9

67.0

67.2

 

15%

65.5

65.6

65.6

65.7

65.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

Obama Margin (mil.)

 

90%

2.85

2.87

2.90

2.93

2.95

 

19%

2.65

2.66

2.68

2.69

2.70

92%

2.79

2.82

2.84

2.87

2.89

 

18%

2.60

2.61

2.63

2.64

2.65

94%

2.73

2.76

2.78

2.81

2.83

 

17%

2.55

2.57

2.58

2.59

2.60

96%

2.68

2.70

2.73

2.75

2.78

 

16%

2.50

2.52

2.53

2.54

2.55

98%

2.62

2.64

2.67

2.69

2.72

 

15%

2.46

2.47

2.48

2.49

2.51