Pennsylvania 2010 Senate True Vote Analysis

Richard Charnin

June 18, 2011

This is an analysis of the 2010 Pennsylvania senate race in which Toomey (Rep) defeated Sestak (Dem) by 80,000 recorded votes (51-49%). The True Vote analysis indicates that Sestak had at least a 51.5% vote share and 120,000 vote margin.

The Final PA 2010 Exit Poll indicated that 49% of the votes recorded in 2010 were cast by returning Obama voters and 45% by returning McCain voters, a 4 percent margin. But Obama won the PA True Vote by a 15% margin. Therefore it is logical to assume that there were many more returning Obama voters than indicated in the 2010 PA exit poll. If this is the case, then it is beyond a reasonable doubt that Sestak won the election.

Given Obama’s 57% PA True Vote and a) 60% returning Obama voter turnout, b) 70% McCain turnout, c) 2010 PA exit poll vote shares, Sestak won by 122,000 votes (51.5-48.5%).

As in the Wisconsin exit poll, vote shares were not available for returning third party (Other) voters and new (DNV) voters. However, the exit poll indicated that returning third-party 2008 voters and new voters each represented 3% (119,000) of the total 2010 vote. This is a RED FLAG! Obama won third party voters by 66-20% over McCain. It is also impossible that returning third-party voters comprised 119,000 of the 2010 vote. There were only 81,000 third-party voters in 2008 and approximately 55,000 returned to vote in 2010. Therefore, the returning third-party mix was changed to 1.4%. DNV increased from 3% to 5.2%.

The sensitivity analysis tables display Sestak vote shares and margins for various scenarios: Obama 2008 voter turnout in 2010, Sestak shares of returning Obama voters and Toomey shares of returning McCain voters.

The Final 2010 PA Exit Poll is eerily similar to that of Wisconsin. Apparently, the exit pollsters forgot to adjust “When Decided” to match the recorded vote. Feingold and Sestak each won the “When Decided” category. Toomey needed 53% of the 27% of voters who decided in the last week. He had just 42%. The Democrats led in Party ID by 40-37% over the Republicans. Democrats virtually always win when they have a 3% edge in Party-ID.

In the “Voted in 2008” category, Sestak led the 94% who were returning Obama and McCain voters. Vote shares for returning 3rd-party and new voters are not available.

The returning voter mix should reflect the previous election True Vote, not the recorded vote. The True Vote Model indicates that Obama won nationally by 58-40% - a 22 million vote margin (only 9.5 million recorded). Forcing the State and National Exit Polls to match the recorded vote is standard operating procedure. In order to force a match in 2004 and 2008, the exit pollsters had to assume an impossible number of returning Bush voters. Final exit polls are forced to match the recorded vote by adjusting the returning voter mix and/or the vote shares. In 2004 adjusting the mix was not sufficient to match the recorded vote; Bush vote shares had to be increased as well.

2008 National Exit Poll (recorded vote)					2008 National True Vote
Voted 2004	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other	Voted 2004	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other
DNV	13%	71%	27%	2%	DNV	12.4%	71%	27%	2%
Kerry	37%	89%	9%	1%	Kerry	46.8%	89%	9%	1%
Bush	46%	17%	82%	1%	Bush	39.7%	17%	82%	1%
Other	4%	66%	20%	8%	Other	1.1%	66%	20%	8%
Total	100%	52.6%	45.4%	1.4%	Total	100%	57.9%	40.3%	1.2%

PA 2008 Recorded Vote

Voted 04	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other
New/DNV	10.4%	70.9%	27.4%	1.7%
Kerry	45.9%	86.2%	12.0%	1.7%
Bush	43.1%	16.5%	82.7%	0.9%
Other	0.6%	69.8%	28.5%	1.7%
Recorded	100.0%	54.5%	44.2%	1.4%

Vote 6,013 3,276 2,656 81

PA 2008 True Vote

Voted 2004 Mix Obama McCain Other

New/DNV 6.3% 73.2% 25.1% 1.7%

Kerry 51.7% 89.0% 9.3% 1.7%

Bush 41.4% 17.0% 82.1% 0.9%

Other 0.6% 72.0% 26.3% 1.7%

True Vote 100% 58.1% 40.6% 1.3%

Recorded 100% 54.5% 44.2% 1.3%

PA 2008 TRUE VOTE DISCREPANCY (000)

True Vote 5,747 3,337 2,333 78

Recorded 6,013 3,276 2,656 81

Net Adjust. 266 -60 323 4

Final PA 2010 Exit Poll (recorded vote)

Vote shares were not available for returning third-party (Other) and New voters.

Voted 2008 Mix Sestak Toomey

Obama  49% 88% 12%

McCain 45% 9% 91%

Other 3% N/A N/A

DNV  3% N/A N/A

Total 94% 47.2% 46.8%

Recorded Share  100% 49.0% 51.0%

Recorded Vote 3978 1949 2029

PA 2010 True Vote

PA			97.5%	Turnout	2010		Share		Votes
2008	True	Share	Alive	Rate	Voted	Mix	Sestak	Toomey	Sestak	Toomey
Obama	3427	57.00%	3342	60%	2005	50.4%	88%	12%	1764	241
McCain	2504	41.65%	2442	70%	1709	43.0%	9%	91%	154	1555
Other	81	1.35%	79	70%	55	1.4%	50%	50%	28	28
DNV				-	208	5.2%	50%	50%	104	104
Total	6013	100.0%	5863	64%	3978	100.0%	51.5%	48.5%	2050	1928
								Margin	122
Obama	Recorded	54.48%				Recorded	49.0%	51.0%	1949	2029

Sensitivity Analysis

		Sestak share						Sestak share
Obama		Sestak % Obama				Toomey%		Sestak % Obama
Turnout	82%	84%	86%	88%	90%	McCain	82%	84%	86%	88%	90%
68%	50.7%	51.8%	52.9%	54.1%	55.2%	89%	49.4%	50.4%	51.4%	52.4%	53.4%
66%	50.1%	51.2%	52.3%	53.5%	54.6%	90%	48.9%	49.9%	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%
64%	49.6%	50.7%	51.7%	52.8%	53.9%	91%	48.5%	49.5%	50.5%	51.5%	52.5%
62%	49.0%	50.1%	51.1%	52.2%	53.2%	92%	48.1%	49.1%	50.1%	51.1%	52.1%
60%	48.5%	49.5%	50.5%	51.5%	52.5%	93%	47.7%	48.7%	49.7%	50.7%	51.7%
		Sestak Margin						Sestak Margin
68%	53	144	235	325	416	89%	(50)	30	110	191	271
66%	10	98	186	275	363	90%	(84)	(4)	76	156	237
64%	(33)	53	138	224	309	91%	(118)	(38)	42	122	202
62%	(76)	7	90	173	256	92%	(153)	(72)	8	88	168
60%	(118)	(38)	42	122	202	93%	(187)	(107)	(26)	54	134

Final Pennsylvania Exit Poll Demographics

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=PAS01p1

Gender	Mix	Sestak	Toomey
Male	49%	44%	56%
Female	51%	54%	46%
	Share	49.1%	50.9%
	Votes	1949	2029
Race/Gender
White Men	43%	39%	61%
White Women	43%	47%	53%
Black Men	4%	88%	12%
Black Women	5%	95%	5%
Latino Men	2%	N/A	N/A
Latino Women	1%	N/A	N/A
All Other Races	2%	N/A	N/A
Age
18-29	13%	61%	39%
30-44	21%	54%	46%
45-64	44%	48%	52%
65 +	23%	41%	59%
Income
Under $30,000	19%	58%	42%
$30-50,000	20%	52%	48%
$50-75,000	20%	50%	50%
$75-100,000	18%	49%	51%
$100-200,000	17%	37%	63%
$200,000 +	6%	40%	60%
Education
No High School	3%	N/A	N/A
H.S. Graduate	2%	52%	48%
Some College	26%	48%	52%
College Grad	25%	45%	55%
Postgraduate	21%	51%	49%
Party ID
Democrat	40%	90%	10%
Republican	37%	8%	92%
Independent	23%	45%	55%
Ideology
Liberal	19%	91%	9%
Moderate	46%	60%	40%
Conservative	35%	12%	88%
	Mix	Sestak	Toomey
Voted 2008
Obama	49%	88%	12%
McCain	45%	9%	91%
Other	3%	N/A	N/A
Did not vote	3%	N/A	N/A
When Decided
Last Three Days	15%	N/A	N/A
Last Week	12%	N/A	N/A
Last Month	20%	50%	50%
Before	52%	48%	52%
When Decided
Last Week	26%	58%	42%
Before	72%	49%	51%
When Decided
Last Month	46%	55%	45%
Before That	52%	48%	52%
	Mix	Sestak	Toomey
Size of Place
Big Cities	11%	84%	16%
Smaller Cities	9%	55%	45%
Suburbs	63%	45%	55%
Small Towns	9%	36%	64%
Rural	8%	45%	55%
Location
Urban	20%	71%	29%
Suburban	53%	45%	55%
Rural	17%	40%	60%
Geographic Area
Philadelphia	11%	84%	16%
Phil Suburbs	22%	51%	49%
NE Pennsylvania	16%	47%	53%
Central PA	22%	34%	66%
Western PA	29%	48%	52%