Pennsylvania  2010 Senate True Vote Analysis

 

Richard Charnin

 

June 18, 2011                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                     

This is an analysis of the 2010 Pennsylvania senate race in which Toomey (Rep) defeated Sestak (Dem) by 80,000 recorded votes (51-49%). The True Vote analysis indicates that Sestak had at least a 51.5% vote share and 120,000 vote margin.

 

The Final PA 2010 Exit Poll indicated that 49% of the votes recorded in 2010 were cast by returning Obama voters and 45% by returning McCain voters, a 4 percent margin. But Obama won the PA True Vote by a 15% margin. Therefore it is logical to assume that there were many more returning Obama voters than indicated in the 2010 PA exit poll. If this is the case, then it is beyond a reasonable doubt that Sestak won the election.  

 

Given Obama’s 57% PA True Vote and a) 60% returning Obama voter turnout, b) 70% McCain turnout, c) 2010 PA exit poll vote shares, Sestak won by 122,000 votes (51.5-48.5%).

 

As in the Wisconsin exit poll, vote shares were not available for returning third party (Other) voters and new (DNV) voters. However, the exit poll indicated that returning third-party 2008 voters and new voters each represented 3% (119,000) of the total 2010 vote. This is a RED FLAG! Obama won third party voters by 66-20% over McCain. It is also impossible that returning third-party voters comprised 119,000 of the 2010 vote. There were only 81,000 third-party voters in 2008 and approximately 55,000 returned to vote in 2010. Therefore, the returning third-party mix was changed to 1.4%. DNV increased from 3% to 5.2%.

 

The sensitivity analysis tables display Sestak vote shares and margins for various scenarios: Obama 2008 voter turnout in 2010, Sestak shares of returning Obama voters and Toomey shares of returning McCain voters.

 

The Final 2010 PA Exit Poll is eerily similar to that of Wisconsin. Apparently, the exit pollsters forgot to adjust “When Decided” to match the recorded vote. Feingold and Sestak each won the “When Decided” category. Toomey needed 53% of the 27% of voters who decided in the last week. He had just 42%. The Democrats led in Party ID by 40-37% over the Republicans. Democrats virtually always win when they have a 3% edge in Party-ID.

In the “Voted in 2008” category, Sestak led the 94% who were returning Obama and McCain voters.  Vote shares for returning 3rd-party and new voters are not available.

 

The returning voter mix should reflect the previous election True Vote, not the recorded vote. The True Vote Model indicates that Obama won nationally by 58-40% - a 22 million vote margin (only 9.5 million recorded). Forcing the State and National Exit Polls to match the recorded vote is standard operating procedure. In order to force a match in 2004 and 2008, the exit pollsters had to assume an impossible number of returning Bush voters. Final exit polls are forced to match the recorded vote by adjusting the returning voter mix and/or the vote shares. In 2004 adjusting the mix was not sufficient to match the recorded vote; Bush vote shares had to be increased as well.

 

 

 

2008 National Exit Poll (recorded vote)

 

2008 National True Vote

 

 

 

Voted 2004

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

 

Voted 2004

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

DNV

13%

71%

27%

2%

 

DNV

12.4%

71%

27%

2%

Kerry

37%

89%

9%

1%

 

Kerry

46.8%

89%

9%

1%

Bush

46%

17%

82%

1%

 

Bush

39.7%

17%

82%

1%

Other

4%

66%

20%

8%

 

Other

1.1%

66%

20%

8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

100%

52.6%

45.4%

1.4%

 

Total

100%

57.9%

40.3%

1.2%

 

 

PA 2008 Recorded Vote

                                                           

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Voted 04

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

 

 

 

 

 

 

New/DNV

10.4%

70.9%

27.4%

1.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry

45.9%

86.2%

12.0%

1.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

43.1%

16.5%

82.7%

0.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other

0.6%

69.8%

28.5%

1.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

100.0%

54.5%

44.2%

1.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Vote               6,013      3,276        2,656          81                    

 

 

PA 2008 True Vote

 

Voted 2004       Mix       Obama McCain Other

New/DNV          6.3%     73.2%   25.1%   1.7%

Kerry                51.7%   89.0%   9.3%     1.7%

Bush                 41.4%   17.0%   82.1%   0.9%

Other                0.6%     72.0%   26.3%   1.7%

 

True Vote          100%    58.1%   40.6%   1.3%

Recorded          100%    54.5%   44.2%   1.3%

                                               

PA 2008 TRUE VOTE DISCREPANCY (000)                                           

True Vote          5,747    3,337    2,333    78

Recorded          6,013    3,276    2,656    81

Net Adjust.        266       -60        323       4

 

 

 

Final PA 2010 Exit Poll (recorded vote)

Vote shares were not available for returning third-party (Other) and New voters.

 

Voted 2008                 Mix           Sestak      Toomey  

Obama                       49%          88%          12%

McCain                       45%          9%           91%

Other                          3%            N/A           N/A

DNV                           3%            N/A           N/A

 

Total                          94%          47.2%       46.8%

 

Recorded Share         100%         49.0%       51.0%

Recorded Vote           3978          1949         2029

 

                                                                                                                      

 

PA 2010 True Vote

 

PA

 

 

97.5%

Turnout

2010

 

Share

 

Votes 

 

2008

True

Share

Alive

Rate

Voted

Mix

Sestak

Toomey

Sestak

Toomey

Obama

3427

57.00%

3342

60%

2005

50.4%

88%

12%

1764

241

McCain

2504

41.65%

2442

70%

1709

43.0%

9%

91%

154

1555

Other

81

1.35%

79

70%

55

1.4%

50%

50%

28

28

DNV

 

 

 

-

208

5.2%

50%

50%

104

104

Total

6013

100.0%

5863

64%

3978

100.0%

51.5%

48.5%

2050

1928

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

122

 

Obama

Recorded

54.48%

 

 

 

Recorded

49.0%

51.0%

1949

2029

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

 

 

 

Sestak share

 

 

 

 

 

Sestak share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama 

 

Sestak % Obama

 

 

 

Toomey%

 

Sestak % Obama

 

 

 

Turnout

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

 

McCain

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

68%

50.7%

51.8%

52.9%

54.1%

55.2%

 

89%

49.4%

50.4%

51.4%

52.4%

53.4%

 

66%

50.1%

51.2%

52.3%

53.5%

54.6%

 

90%

48.9%

49.9%

51.0%

52.0%

53.0%

 

64%

49.6%

50.7%

51.7%

52.8%

53.9%

 

91%

48.5%

49.5%

50.5%

51.5%

52.5%

 

62%

49.0%

50.1%

51.1%

52.2%

53.2%

 

92%

48.1%

49.1%

50.1%

51.1%

52.1%

 

60%

48.5%

49.5%

50.5%

51.5%

52.5%

 

93%

47.7%

48.7%

49.7%

50.7%

51.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sestak Margin

 

 

 

 

 

Sestak Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

68%

53

144

235

325

416

 

89%

(50)

30

110

191

271

 

66%

10

98

186

275

363

 

90%

(84)

(4)

76

156

237

 

64%

(33)

53

138

224

309

 

91%

(118)

(38)

42

122

202

 

62%

(76)

7

90

173

256

 

92%

(153)

(72)

8

88

168

 

60%

(118)

(38)

42

122

202

 

93%

(187)

(107)

(26)

54

134

 

 

 

 

Final Pennsylvania Exit Poll Demographics

 

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=PAS01p1

                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                     

Gender

Mix

Sestak

Toomey

Male 

49%

44%

56%

Female 

51%

54%

46%

 

 

 

 

 

Share

49.1%

50.9%

 

Votes

1949

2029

Race/Gender

 

 

 

White Men 

43%

39%

61%

White Women 

43%

47%

53%

Black Men 

4%

88%

12%

Black Women 

5%

95%

5%

Latino Men 

2%

N/A

N/A

Latino Women 

1%

N/A

N/A

All Other Races

2%

N/A

N/A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Age

 

 

 

18-29 

13%

61%

39%

30-44 

21%

54%

46%

45-64 

44%

48%

52%

65 +

23%

41%

59%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income

 

 

 

Under $30,000 

19%

58%

42%

$30-50,000

20%

52%

48%

$50-75,000

20%

50%

50%

$75-100,000

18%

49%

51%

$100-200,000

17%

37%

63%

$200,000 +

6%

40%

60%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Education

 

 

 

No High School

3%

N/A

N/A

H.S. Graduate

2%

52%

48%

Some College

26%

48%

52%

College Grad

25%

45%

55%

Postgraduate

21%

51%

49%

 

 

 

 

Party ID

 

 

 

Democrat 

40%

90%

10%

Republican 

37%

8%

92%

Independent

23%

45%

55%

 

 

 

 

Ideology

 

 

 

Liberal 

19%

91%

9%

Moderate

46%

60%

40%

Conservative

35%

12%

88%

 

 

 

 

 

Mix

Sestak

Toomey

 

 

 

 

Voted 2008

 

 

 

Obama 

49%

88%

12%

McCain

45%

9%

91%

Other

3%

N/A

N/A

Did not vote 

3%

N/A

N/A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When Decided

 

 

 

Last Three Days

15%

N/A

N/A

Last Week

12%

N/A

N/A

Last Month

20%

50%

50%

Before

52%

48%

52%

 

 

 

 

When Decided

 

 

 

Last Week 

26%

58%

42%

Before

72%

49%

51%

 

 

 

 

When Decided

 

 

 

Last Month

46%

55%

45%

Before That 

52%

48%

52%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mix

Sestak

Toomey

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Size of Place

 

 

 

Big Cities 

11%

84%

16%

Smaller Cities

9%

55%

45%

Suburbs 

63%

45%

55%

Small Towns

9%

36%

64%

Rural

8%

45%

55%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Location

 

 

 

Urban

20%

71%

29%

Suburban

53%

45%

55%

Rural

17%

40%

60%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Geographic Area

 

 

 

Philadelphia

11%

84%

16%

Phil Suburbs

22%

51%

49%

NE Pennsylvania 

16%

47%

53%

Central PA

22%

34%

66%

Western PA

29%

48%

52%