Reference Links


The Unanswered Question: Who Really Won in 2004?


Naysayer Hobson’s Choice


The Clincher


The Game


Generic Polls


Election Fraud Beginner’s Guide



Polling Data

2000 Election Exit Poll Statistics

2004 National Pre-election Monthly Trend



4pm,  8349 respondents


7:33pm, 11027 respondents


1222am, 13047 respondents


2004 Final NEP, 1:25pm, 13660 respondents

(Matched to vote count)





Matched to recorded vote


2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL – matched to recorded vote


Harris Poll


Zogby Poll


Who Are Likely Voters and When Do They Matter?

Gallup -Frank Newport

2000 Election


Pew – 2004 Democratic party registration edge


Edison Media Research; Mitofsky International (January 19, 2005).

Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004


Letter from Warren Mitofsky to John Conyers, Jr.


Lenski Interview
US Count Votes


2004 Forecasts


2008 Forecasts

Election Forecasters Preparing For Historic Election

International Journal of Forecasting


Real Clear Politics 2008


2004 Florida voter registration


2004 Florida exit poll



Census Data



2000/2004 County Vote Database


Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS)


Florida 2004 Registration


2004 Presidential Election – Compendium of Attempts to Dismiss “Vote Fraud”


Ron Baiman: summary of the USCV/E-M and Liddle debate


The Pre-Election Polls of 1948: Report to the Committee on Analysis of Pre-Election Polls and Forecasts

by Frederick Mosteller


Voting and Elections by Douglas W. Jones
HE UNIVERSITY OF IOWA Department of Computer Science


USA Today 


Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project (November 11, 2004) (PDF). VOTING MACHINES AND THE UNDERESTIMATE OF THE BUSH VOTE






Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Rolling Stone,

Was the 2004 Election Stolen? June 1, 2006


Online Discussions on the RFK article


Michael Keefer

The Strange Death of American Democracy: Endgame in Ohio


Thom Hartmann


Jim Lampley


Robert C. Koehler
The silent scream of numbers
Tribune Media Services


Dan Rather


Programmer Clint Curtis's affidavit –  June 3, 2006


Scoop 2006 Midterms


Greg Palast…Uncounted Votes


Ohio records destroyed in 56 of 88 counties

Exit polls: the latest Mystery Pollster blog - and my comments.

Exit poll response optimization model: bush needed 55.2% of refusers


What is the exit poll response optimizer telling us about rbr?


Paul Lehto (Landshark)

My take on the TIA probability of so many errors favoring Bush threads


Time for change

A non-statistician's view of the E-M exit poll controversy


 Scoop: Election 2004: The Urban Legend



Steven F., Freeman (December 29, 2004) (PDF).

The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy


2004 Ballot Recount » Ohio County Reports » Cobb-LaMarche 2004

Kropko, M.R. (January 24, 2007), "Election Staff Convicted in Recount Rig

Washington Post,


John Allen Paulos. Nov. 24, 2004

Final Tallies Minus Exit Polls = A Statistical Mystery!


 Dr. Robert Fitrakis

Editor of the Columbus Free Press


Brad Friedman


Greg Palast, An Election Spoiled Rotten


No Paper Trail Left Behind: The Theft of the 2004 Presidential Election

by Dennis Loo, Ph.D


Wayne Madsen

Grand Theft Election, November 5, 2004


Ruy Texeira


2006 Midterms- Landslide Denied

Jonathan Simon, JD, and Bruce O’Dell: Election Defense Alliance



Corporate Media


New Woes Surface in Use of Estimates

By Richard Morin, Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, November 4, 2004; Page A29


Latest Conspiracy Theory -- Kerry Won -- Hits the Ether

By Manuel Roig-Franzia and Dan Keating

Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, November 11, 2004; Page A02


Ohio provisional ballot ruling reversed

USA Today, October 23, 2004


NY Times 2004 voter registration


Reid, Chip (October 13, 2004), "Voter suppression charges on the rise” MSNBC


Ross, Brian (Oct. 27, 2004), Touch-Screen Trouble

ABC News,


2008 NY Primary – zero votes for Obama


Moss, Michael (September 29, 2004),

"Hurdles Remain for American Voters Who Live Overseas”


Morin, Richard (November 21, 2004), "Surveying the Damage

Washington Post,


Rutenberg, Jim (November 5, 2004), "Report Says Problems Led to Skewed Surveying Data


Report suggests changes in exit poll methodology

CNN, January 19, 2005,


New York Times

 “Electorate Expands but Remains Sharply Divided, Surveys Show”


Tom Zeller Jr., The New York Times

Vote Fraud Theories, Spread by Blogs, Are Quickly Buried


November 12, 2004

Steve Rosenthal, Washington Post

Okay, We Lost Ohio. The Question Is, Why?


Dead Voters On Rolls, Other Glitches Found In 6 Key States, Geoff Dougherty, Chicago Tribune, December 4, 2004

Analysis of Alleged Fraud in Briefs Supporting Crawford Respondents


December 5, 2004

William Raspberry, Washington Post

Comments on problems with the 2004 election


November 11, 2004

Mark Hertsgaard, Mother Jones, Recounting Ohio


Ted, Barrett (January 6, 2005), Bush carries Electoral College after delay



Voting Problems in Ohio Spur Call for Overhaul


Powell, Michael; Slevin, Peter (December 15, 2004),

Several Factors Contributed to 'Lost' Voters in Ohio


Election Data Services Inc

Tokaji, Daniel (February 8, 2005),

How Did Ohio's Voting Equipment Fare in 2004?


June 1, 2006

Farhad Manjoo, Salon, Was the 2004 Election Stolen? No.

Critique of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s Rolling Stone Article


Critique of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s Rolling Stone Article


Blumenthal, Mark (November 15, 2004), Exit Polls: CalTech/MIT Report


Blumenthal, Mark (March 21, 2005), Hello Exit Polls My Old Friend




U.S. Government


Kucinich, Dennis (November 10, 2004),

A Note On The Presidential Election in Ohio


Barbara, Boxer (January 6, 2005), Press Release of Senator Boxer: Statement On Her Objection To The Certification Of Ohio’s Electoral Votes


Democratic National Committee: Institute of Voting Rights (2005),

Democracy At Risk: The 2004 Election in Ohio

DNC Services Corporation,


Keith, Tamara (November 17, 2004),

"Election day lines caused by voting machine shortage and other factors”


Hearing - 2004 election and the implementation of tthe Help America Vote Act


Schneier, Bruce (November 10, 2004),

The Problem with Electronic Voting Machines


U.S. Government Accountability Office.  September 2005

New Study Shows 50 Million Voters Will Use Electronic Voting Systems, 32 Million Still with Punch Cards in 2004



An incumbent who can’t break 50 percent is in trouble, even if he’s ahead.


Undecided voters break for the challenger.


Polling Data



Commentary and Analysis