National Exit Poll(1972-2008): Returning Voter Turnout Required to Match the Recorded Vote

 

TruthIsAll

 

Do the exit poll naysayers know any members of the "Dead Bush Voter Society"? If so, they might want to contact Robin Williams. He knows his math and is very familiar with the Dead Poets Society.

 

Apparently there are millions of them.

Let's review the National Exit Poll voter turnout percentages since 1972. It is important to keep in mind that the Final NEP is
***********ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE*************.

What do these impossible turnout percentages tell us about the RECORDED VOTE? Notice a pattern?
The corporate media would have us believe that:

In 2008, 103% of living Bush 2004 voters returned to vote (60.5 of 58.9m).
But only 87% of living Kerry voters returned (48.6 of 56.1).

In 2004, 110% of living Bush 2000 voters returned to vote (52.6 of 47.9m).
But only 93% of living Gore voters returned (45.2 of 48.5).

In 1992, 119% of living Bush 1988 voters returned to vote (55.3 of 46.4m).
But only 74% of living Dukakis voters returned (29.2 of 39.7m).

In 1988, 103% of living Reagan/Bush 1984 voters returned to vote (53.1 of 51.7).
But only 85% of living Mondale voters returned (30.2 of 35.7).

But itís not just Bush voters...
In 1972, 113% of living Nixon 1968 voters returned to vote (34.2 of 30.2).
But only 92% of living Humphrey voters returned (27.2 of 29.7m).

Percentage of Living Voters from the Previous Election Required to Vote in the
Current Election in order to Match the Recorded Vote based on Final National Exit Polls

* indicates incumbent
Year Democrat Republican Incumbent (advantage)
2008†† 87†††††† 103*†††† Bush +16
2004†† 93†††††† 110*†††† Bush +17
2000†† 96*††††† 93†††††† Clinton +3
1996†† 86*††††† 80†††††† Clinton +6
1992†† 74†††††† 119*†††† Bush +45
1988†† 85 ††††††† 103*†† Reagan/Bush +18
1984†† 93†††††† 98*††††† Reagan +5
1980†† 94*††††† 95†††††† Carter -1
1976†† 91†††††† 96*††††† Ford +5
1972†† 92†††††† 113*†††† Nixon +21

 

2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Method: Final NEP Forced to Match

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

95%

97%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Voted

 

Voter

2008

National Exit Poll

 

Voter %

 

2004

2004

2004

2008

2008

 

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

DNV

 

-

-

-

-

 

17.1

13%

71

27

2

-

Kerry

48.3%

62.2

59.0

56.1

54.4

 

48.6

37%

89

9

2

87

Bush

50.7%

63.1

62.0

58.9

57.2

 

60.5

46%

17

82

1

103

Other

1.0%

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.1

 

5.3

4%

66

26

8

451

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

Total

 

126.5

122.3

116.2

112.7

 

131.5

Share

52.6%

45.6%

1.8%

7.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

69.2

59.9

2.3

9.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Share

52.9%

45.6%

1.5%

7.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

131.5

69.5

60.0

2.0

9.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diff

 

 

 

Error

0.2%

 

2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Method: Final NEP Forced to Match

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

95%

98%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Voted

 

Voter

2004

National Exit Poll

 

Voter %

 

2000

2000

2000

2004

2004

 

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

 

-

-

-

-

 

20.8

17%

54

45

1

-

Gore

48.4%

55.3

51.0

48.5

47.5

 

45.2

37%

90

10

0

93

Bush

47.9%

51.8

50.5

47.9

47.0

 

52.6

43%

9

91

0

110

Other

3.8%

4.0

4.0

3.8

3.7

 

3.7

3%

71

21

8

98

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

Total

 

111.2

105.4

100.1

98.1

 

122.3

Share

48.5%

51.1%

0.4%

-2.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

59.3

62.5

0.5

-3.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Share

48.3%

50.7%

1.0%

-2.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

122.3

59.0

62.0

1.2

-3.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Error

0.2%

 

2000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Method: Final NEP Forced to Match

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

95%

96%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Voted

 

Voter

2000

National Exit Poll

 

Voter %

 

1996

1996

1996

2000

2000

 

Turnout

Mix

Gore

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

 

-

-

-

-

 

19.0

18%

52

43

5

-

Clinton

49.2%

54.0

47.4

45.0

43.2

 

43.2

41%

82

15

3

96

Dole

40.7%

41.2

39.2

37.2

35.7

 

34.8

33%

7

91

2

93

Perot

10.1%

9.9

9.7

9.2

8.8

 

8.4

8%

39

49

12

92

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

Total

 

105.0

96.3

91.5

87.8

 

105.4

Share

48.4%

47.8%

3.8%

0.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

51.0

50.4

4.0

0.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Share

48.4%

47.9%

3.8%

0.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

105.4

51.0

50.5

4.0

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Error

-0.1%

 

1996

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Method: Final NEP Forced to Match

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

95%

88%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Voted

 

Voter

1996

National Exit Poll

 

Voter %

 

1992

1992

1992

1996

1996

 

Turnout

Mix

Clinton

Dole

Perot

Turnout

DNV

 

-

-

-

-

 

12.5

13%

55

33

12

-

Clinton

43.0%

52.0

44.9

42.7

37.5

 

36.6

38%

85

9

6

86

Bush

37.4%

41.0

39.1

37.1

32.7

 

29.8

31%

15

82

3

80

Perot

19.5%

20.9

20.4

19.4

17.1

 

17.3

18%

32

42

26

89

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

Total

 

113.9

104.4

99.2

87.3

 

96.3

Share

49.9%

40.7%

9.5%

9.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

48.0

39.2

9.1

8.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Share

49.2%

40.7%

10.1%

8.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

96.3

47.4

39.2

9.7

8.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Error

-0.6%

 

1992

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Method: Final NEP Forced to Match

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

95%

98%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Voted

 

Voter

1992

National Exit Poll

 

Voter %

 

1988

1988

1988

1992

1992

 

Turnout

Mix

Clinton

Bush

Perot

Turnout

DNV

 

-

-

-

-

 

19.1

18%

46

25

29

-

Dukakis

45.6%

49.8

41.8

39.7

38.9

 

29.2

28%

83

5

12

74

Bush

53.4%

51.5

48.9

46.4

45.5

 

55.3

53%

21

59

20

119

Other

1.0%

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

 

0.7

1%

32

30

38

85

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

Total

 

102.3

91.6

87.0

85.3

 

104.4

Share

43.0%

37.5%

19.5%

5.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

44.9

39.1

20.4

5.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Share

43.0%

37.4%

19.5%

5.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

104.4

44.9

39.1

20.4

5.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Error

0.0%

 

1988

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Method: Final NEP Forced to Match

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

95%

94%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Voted

 

Voter

1988

National Exit Poll

 

Voter %

 

1984

1984

1984

1988

1988

 

Turnout

Mix

Dukakis

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

 

-

-

-

-

 

7.7

8%

47

51

2

-

Mondale

40.6%

44.5

37.6

35.7

33.6

 

30.2

33%

92

7

1

85

Reagan

58.8%

56.7

54.5

51.7

48.6

 

53.1

58%

19

80

1

103

Other

0.7%

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

 

0.5

1%

49

50

1

93

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

Total

 

101.9

92.7

88.0

82.7

 

91.6

Share

45.6%

53.3%

1.1%

-7.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

41.8

48.8

1.0

-7.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Share

45.6%

53.4%

1.0%

-7.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

91.6

41.8

48.9

0.9

-7.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Error

-0.1%

 

1984

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Method: Final NEP Forced to Match

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

95%

95%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Voted

 

Voter

1984

National Exit Poll

 

Voter %

 

1980

1980

1980

1984

1984

 

Turnout

Mix

Mondale

Reagan

Other

Turnout

DNV

 

-

-

-

-

 

14.8

16%

31

68

1

-

Carter

41.0%

40.4

35.5

33.7

32.0

 

31.5

34%

82

18

0

93

Reagan

50.7%

45.4

43.9

41.7

39.6

 

40.8

44%

11

88

1

98

Anderson

8.3%

7.3

7.2

6.8

6.5

 

5.6

6%

49

50

1

81

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

Total

 

93.1

86.6

82.2

78.1

 

92.7

Share

40.6%

58.7%

0.7%

-18.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

37.6

54.4

0.6

-16.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Share

40.6%

58.8%

0.7%

-18.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

92.7

37.6

54.5

0.6

-16.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Error

-0.1%

 

1980

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Method: Final NEP Forced to Match

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

95%

94%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Voted

 

Voter

1980

National Exit Poll

 

Voter %

 

1976

1976

1976

1980

1980

 

Turnout

Mix

Carter

Reagan

Anderson

Turnout

DNV

 

-

-

-

-

 

13.9

16%

39

44

17

-

Carter

50.1%

44.7

40.8

38.8

36.5

 

36.4

42%

71

22

7

94

Ford

48.0%

40.4

39.1

37.2

35.0

 

35.5

41%

11

83

6

95

Other

1.9%

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.4

 

0.9

1%

44

42

14

59

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

Total

 

86.7

81.5

77.5

72.8

 

86.6

Share

41.0%

50.7%

8.3%

-9.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

35.5

43.9

7.2

-8.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Share

41.0%

50.7%

8.3%

-9.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

86.6

35.5

43.9

7.2

-8.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Error

0.0%

 

1976

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Method: Final NEP Forced to Match

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

95%

94%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Voted

 

Voter

1976

National Exit Poll

 

Voter %

 

1972

1972

1972

1976

1976

 

Turnout

Mix

Carter

Ford

Other

Turnout

DNV

 

-

-

-

-

 

11.8

15%

57

40

3

-

McGovern

36.2%

34.2

28.2

26.8

25.2

 

24.5

30%

92

7

1

91

Nixon

60.7%

49.1

47.2

44.8

42.1

 

43.2

53%

24

74

2

96

Other

3.1%

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.1

 

2.0

3%

58

39

3

89

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

Total

 

85.8

77.7

73.9

69.4

 

81.5

Share

50.0%

48.1%

1.9%

1.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

40.8

39.2

1.5

1.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Share

50.1%

48.0%

1.9%

2.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

81.5

40.8

39.1

1.6

1.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Error

0.1%

 

1972

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Method: Final NEP Forced to Match

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

95%

92%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Voted

 

Voter

1972

National Exit Poll

 

Voter %

 

1968

1968

1968

1972

1972

 

Turnout

Mix

McGovern

Nixon

Other

Turnout

DNV

 

-

-

-

-

 

8.6

11%

43

53

4

-

Humphrey

42.9%

35.8

31.3

29.7

27.3

 

27.2

35%

71

28

1

92

Nixon

43.6%

33.1

31.8

30.2

27.8

 

34.2

44%

6

89

5

113

Wallace

13.6%

10.1

9.9

9.4

8.7

 

7.8

10%

40

59

1

83

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

Total

 

79.0

73.0

69.3

63.8

 

77.7

Share

36.2%

60.7%

3.1%

-24.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

28.2

47.2

2.4

-19.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Share

36.2%

60.7%

3.1%

-24.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote

77.7

28.2

47.2

2.4

-19.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Error

0.0%