Regarding the Research 2000 Pile-on

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos and Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com have each taken aim at Research 2000, which did the pre-election polling for Daily Kos.

 

Markos cites the Research 2000 poll that determined only 27% of Republicans supported gays in the military. He found this to be way too low. His evidence? Gallup and ABC polls had over 60% GOP support. Well, because they are MSM, that makes them right and R2000 wrong?

 

Markos gives Republicans too much credit. If 90% of Democrats support gays in the military as do 30% of Republicans and 60% of independents, then we would have about 61% supporting in total. In any case, why does Markos go after R2000, which did the 2008 pre-election presidential polling for him?

 

Party-ID

Mix

Support

Total

Dem

40.0%

90.0%

36.0%

Rep

35.0%

30.0%

10.5%

Ind

25.0%

60.0%

15.0%

Total

100.0%

-

61.5%

 

Nate Silver wrote that the R2000 data “feels way too clean for me”. Better clean than dirty, Nate. Would he rather see the kind of volatility that CNN and Gallup had in their tracking polls? For some reason, Wolf Blitzer always appeared perplexed whenever Gore jumped in the CNN/Gallup 2000 tracking poll.

 

Nate points to a chart depicting age breakdowns in the Democratic vote share for the last 20 contests surveyed by R2K and PPP.  He writes: ”The age breakdowns in Research 2000's numbers are almost always close to "perfect" -- in 20 out of 20 cases, for instance, the Democrat gets a lower vote share from among 30-44 year olds than among 18-29 year olds.  PPP's data, on the other hand, is *much* messier -- which is what I think we should expect when comparing small subsamples, particularly subsamples of lots of different races that are subject to different demographic patterns”.

 

Of course, 18-29 year olds consistently vote more Democratic than the 30-44 group. Is that news? Is 20 out of 20 cases reasonable?  Let’s compute the probability that the Democratic share of the 18-29 age group would exceed their share of the 30-44 group in all 20 elections.

 

In 2008, Obama had 66% of the 18-29 segment and 52% of the 30-44 age group. In 2004, Kerry had 56% and 48%, respectively. So in the last two elections, the Democrats had an average 61% share of the 18-29 age group and 50% of the 30-44 group.  Given these shares, the probability is virtually 100% that 20 of 20 polls would give the Democrat a higher share in the18-29 age group than in the 30-44 group.

 

Assume a 4% MoE.. Then the probability that 20 of 20 would exceed 50% is .997 ^ 20 = 94%                                   

 

Probability Democratic share of 18-29 age group > 50% share of 30-44 group

 

                      Share of 18-29 group      

MoE             61%              56%             

                      Probability > 50%

1%                100%            100%           

2%                100%            99.8%          

3%                99.99%         97.7%          

4%                99.70%         93.32%        

 

Nate also finds it strange that in the last 30 races, Democrats did better among women in all cases. Once again, I ask, is that news? I will spare you the probability analysis. He also questions the lack of volatility in R2000. It’s not “noisy” enough for his taste.

 

“Likewise, take a look at their Presidential tracking numbers from 2008 (http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/11/4). They published their daily results in addition to their three-day rolling average ... and the daily results were remarkably consistent from day to day.  At no point, for instance, in the two months that they published daily results did Obama's vote share fluctuate by more than a net of 2 points from day to day (to reiterate, this is for the daily results (n=~360) and not the rolling average).  That just seems extremely unlikely -- there should be more noise than that.

 

You want noise? OK, Nate, let’s compare the R2K LV tracking poll to the Gallup RV tracking poll. For Obama, the R2K and Gallup standard deviations were 1.59% and 2.02%, respectively. The corresponding McCain volatilities were 1.86% and 1.74%. Obama’s average R2K share was 50.29% and 49.65% in Gallup. Based on these stats, R2K and Gallup are fairly equivalent in both volatility and average poll share.

 

Nate and Markos have denigrated exit polls and won’t even discuss Election Fraud. Yet they fabricate faux outrage about an independent polling firm that is not the MSM. Nate was recently hired by the NY Times. Unfortunately, the Grey Lady (“All the News that’s Fit to Print”) does not report Election Fraud.  In 2004-2005, Markos locked out posters who sought to present statistical and anecdotal evidence pointing to election fraud. But the Kossacks rebelled. Those “conspiracy nuts” are now allowed to post.

 

Obama’s recorded share was 52.9%, a 9.5 million margin. But the True Vote model indicates he had 57.5%, a 22 million margin. Want proof that fraud cost Obama 13 million? Consider this: The National Exit Poll required that there be 12 million more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters. That is not only implausible; it is mathematically impossible. There were likely 10 million more returning Kerry voters than Bush voters.

 

Why don’t you write about it in the Times, Nate? Or mention it the next time you get on MSNBC? On the other hand, you better not – if you want to keep that job.

 

Go to http://richardcharnin.com/ to see the proof. Since the MSM will not review my book, I shall not hesitate to mention it here: “Proving Election Fraud”.

 

 

TABLE 1

GALLUP vs. R2K TRACKING POLLS (3-DAY AVERAGE)

 

 

                        GALLUP                                                         RESEARCH 2000

 

 

Gallup

 

Change

Change

 

R2K

 

Change

Change

 

Obama

McCain

Obama

McCain

 

Obama

McCain

Obama

McCain

Avg

49.65

42.90

0.15

-0.15

 

50.29

42.21

0.06

-0.02

Stdev

2.02

1.74

0.94

0.89

 

1.59

1.86

0.70

0.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1102

53

40

1

-1

 

51

44

0

0

1101

52

41

0

0

 

51

44

0

-1

1031

52

41

0

0

 

51

45

1

0

1030

52

41

2

-1

 

50

45

0

1

1029

50

42

-1

0

 

50

44

0

1

1028

51

42

1

-1

 

50

43

0

1

1027

50

43

-2

1

 

50

42

-1

2

1026

52

42

1

0

 

51

40

-1

0

1025

51

42

0

0

 

52

40

0

0

1024

51

42

1

0

 

52

40

1

-1

1023

50

42

0

-1

 

51

41

0

0

1022

50

43

-1

1

 

51

41

1

-1

1021

51

42

-1

1

 

50

42

0

0

1020

52

41

0

0

 

50

42

0

-1

1019

52

41

0

-1

 

50

43

0

0

1018

52

42

2

0

 

50

43

-2

1

1017

50

42

0

-1

 

52

42

0

1

1016

50

43

1

0

 

52

41

0

0

1015

49

43

-1

0

 

52

41

0

0

1014

50

43

-1

1

 

52

41

0

1

1013

51

42

0

1

 

52

40

-1

0

1012

51

41

1

-2

 

53

40

1

0

1011

50

43

-1

1

 

52

40

0

0

1010

51

42

0

1

 

52

40

1

-1

1009

51

41

-1

0

 

51

41

0

0

1008

52

41

0

0

 

51

41

-1

0

1007

52

41

1

-1

 

52

41

0

1

1006

51

42

1

0

 

52

40

0

0

1005

50

42

0

-1

 

52

40

0

0

1004

50

43

0

1

 

52

40

1

0

1003

50

42

1

0

 

51

40

0

0

1002

49

42

1

-1

 

51

40

0

-1

1001

48

43

0

-1

 

51

41

0

0

930

48

44

-1

1

 

51

41

0

-1

929

49

43

-1

1

 

51

42

1

-1

928

50

42

0

0

 

50

43

1

0

927

50

42

1

-2

 

49

43

1

0

926

49

44

1

-1

 

48

43

-1

0

925

48

45

2

-1

 

49

43

1

-1

924

46

46

-1

2

 

48

44

-1

1

923

47

44

0

0

 

49

43

0

0

922

47

44

-1

0

 

49

43

0

1

921

48

44

-1

-1

 

49

42

-1

0

920

49

45

-1

1

 

50

42

1

0

919

50

44

1

0

 

49

42

0

-1

918

49

44

1

0

 

49

43

1

-1

917

48

44

1

-1

 

48

44

0

-1

916

47

45

1

-2

 

48

45

1

-1

915

46

47

1

0

 

47

46

0

0

914

45

47

0

0

 

47

46

0

0

913

45

47

0

0

 

47

46

0

0

912

45

47

0

-1

 

47

46

-1

1

 

 

TABLE 2

ALL POLLS vs. R2K TRACKING

 

Projections based on Undecided Voter Allocation

                                                                                                                              Projected Vote                                                                                               

                                                                                                                              Undecided Voter Allocation                                                                                             

                                                All POLLS                                                              75%           25%                                                    Research 2000                                          

                                                                            Obama       McCain   Margin      Obama       McCain      Margin                               Obama        McCain           Margin

                                                Average              49.87          42.67      7.20         54.34         44.16         10.19                                 50.33          42.33             8.00

                                                Stdev                   2.43            2.43        3.74         2.022         2.022         4.04                                   1.53            1.93               3.23

                                                Max                     54               47           16            59.88         47.63         21.25                                 53               46                  13.00

Pollster                 Sample        Min                       44               36           0              50.88         38.63         3.25                                   47               400                1.00

 

Marist                   804LV         11/03 - 11/03       52               43           9              54.6           43.9           10.8                4-Nov          51               46                  5

FOX News           971LV         11/02 - 11/03       50               43           7              54.1           44.4           9.8                  3-Nov          51               45                  6

Zogby                  1201LV       11/01 - 11/03       54               43           11            55.1           43.4           11.8                2-Nov          51               44                  7

NBC/WSJ             1011LV       11/01 - 11/02       51               43           8              54.4           44.1           10.3                1-Nov          51               44                  7

Research2k         1100LV       10/31 - 11/02       51               44           7              53.6           44.9           8.8                  31-Oct        51               45                  6

 

Gallup                 2847RV       10/31 - 11/02       53               40           13            57.1           41.4           15.8                30-Oct        50               45                  5

Hotline/FD            882LV         10/31 - 11/02       50               45           5              52.6           45.9           6.8                  29-Oct        50               44                  6

Rasmussen         3000LV       10/31 - 11/02       51               46           5              52.1           46.4           5.8                  28-Oct        50               43                  7

ABC/WP              2446RV       10/31 - 11/02       54               41           13            56.6           41.9           14.8                27-Oct        50               42                  8

CNN                     1017LV       10/30 - 11/01       51               43           8              54.4           44.1           10.3                26-Oct        51               40                  11

 

Pew                     2587LV       10/30 - 11/01       49               42           7              54.6           43.9           10.8                25-Oct        52               40                  12

Marist                   543LV         10/29 - 10/29       50               43           7              54.1           44.4           9.8                  24-Oct        52               40                  12

CBS                     1005LV       10/28 - 10/31       54               41           13            56.6           41.9           14.8                23-Oct        51               41                  10

FOX News           924LV         10/28 - 10/29       47               44           3              52.6           45.9           6.8                  22-Oct        51               41                  10

Battleground        1000LV       10/27 - 10/30       49               45           4              52.4           46.1           6.3                  21-Oct        50               42                  8

 

Ipsos                    831LV         10/23 - 10/27       50               45           5              52.6           45.9           6.8                  20-Oct        50               42                  8

Pew                    1325RV       10/23 - 10/26       52               36           16            59.9           38.6           21.3                19-Oct        50               43                  7

Newsweek          882LV         10/22 - 10/23       53               41           12            56.4           42.1           14.3                18-Oct        50               43                  7

FOX News           936LV         10/20 - 10/21       49               40           9              56.1           42.4           13.8                17-Oct        52               42                  10

CBS/NYT             771LV         10/19 - 10/22       52               39           13            57.6           40.9           16.8                16-Oct        52               41                  11

 

NBC/WSJ            1159RV       10/18 - 10/20       52               42           10            55.4           43.1           12.3                15-Oct        52               41                  11

CNN                     764LV         10/17 - 10/19       51               46           5              52.1           46.4           5.8                  14-Oct        52               41                  11

Ipsos                    773LV         10/16 - 10/20       50               42           8              54.9           43.6           11.3                13-Oct        52               40                  12

Pew Resrch        2382LV       10/16 - 10/19       53               39           14            57.9           40.6           17.3                12-Oct        53               40                  13

Pew Resrch        1191LV       10/12 - 10/14       50               40           10            56.4           42.1           14.3                11-Oct        52               40                  12

 

CBS/NYT             699LV         10/10 - 10/13       53               39           14            57.9           40.6           17.3                10-Oct        52               40                  12

LAT                      1030LV       10/10 - 10/13       50               41           9              55.6           42.9           12.8                9-Oct          51               41                  10

Ipsos                  1036RV       10/9 - 10/13         48               39           9              56.6           41.9           14.8                8-Oct          51               41                  10

ABC/WP               766LV         10/09 - 10/11       53               43           10            54.9           43.6           11.3                7-Oct          52               41                  11

Newsweek        1035RV       10/08 - 10/09       52               41           11            56.1           42.4           13.8                6-Oct          52               40                  12

 

FOX News          900RV         10/08 - 10/09       46               39           7              56.1           42.4           13.8                5-Oct          52               40                  12

NBC/WSJ            658RV         10/04 - 10/05       49               43           6              53.9           44.6           9.3                  4-Oct          52               40                  12

CBS/NYT             616LV         10/03 - 10/05       48               45           3              52.1           46.4           5.8                  3-Oct          51               40                  11

CNN                     694LV         10/03 - 10/05       53               45           8              53.4           45.1           8.3                  2-Oct          51               40                  11

Ipsos                  858RV         10/02 - 10/06       47               40           7              55.6           42.9           12.8                1-Oct          51               41                  10

 

Marist                   943LV         09/28 - 09/30       49               44           5              53.1           45.4           7.8                  30-Sep        51               41                  10

AP/GfK                808LV         09/27 - 09/30       48               41           7              55.1           43.4           11.8                29-Sep        51               42                  9

CBS/NYT             769LV         09/27 - 09/30       50               41           9              55.6           42.9           12.8                28-Sep        50               43                  7

Ipsos                  1007RV       09/27 - 09/30       48               45           3              52.1           46.4           5.8                  27-Sep       49               43                  6

Time                     1133LV       09/27 - 09/29       50               43           7              54.1           44.4           9.8                  26-Sep        48               43                  5

 

Pew Resrch        1181LV       09/27 - 09/29       49               43           6              53.9           44.6           9.3                  25-Sep        49               43                  6

ABC/WP               916LV         09/27 - 09/29       50               46           4              51.9           46.6           5.3                  24-Sep        48               44                  4

CBS/NYT             844RV         09/22 - 09/24       47               42           5              54.1           44.4           9.8                  23-Sep       49               43                  6

ABC/WP               780LV         09/20 - 09/22       52               43           9              54.6           43.9           10.8                22-Sep        49               43                  6

FOX News          900RV         09/20 - 09/22       45               39           6              55.9           42.6           13.3                21-Sep       49               42                  7

 

Ipsos                  923RV         09/20 - 09/22       44               43           1              52.6           45.9           6.8                  20-Sep       50               42                  8

NBC/WSJ             838LV         09/19 - 09/22       48               46           2              51.4           47.1           4.3                  19-Sep        49               42                  7

LAT                     1085RV       09/19 - 09/22       49               45           4              52.4           46.1           6.3                  18-Sep       49               43                  6

CNN                     697LV         09/19 - 09/21       51               47           4              51.4           47.1           4.3                  17-Sep        48               44                  4

Zogby                  1008LV       09/13 - 09/15       47               45           2              51.9           46.6           5.3                  16-Sep        48               45                  3

 

Ipsos                  1046RV       09/13 - 09/15       45               45           0              51.4           47.1           4.3                  15-Sep       48               46                  2

CBS/NYT             800LV         09/12 - 09/16       49               44           5              53.1           45.4           7.8                  14-Sep        47               46                  1

Quinnipiac            987LV         09/11 - 09/16       49               45           4              52.4           46.1           6.3                  13-Sep        47               46                  1

Newsweek        1038RV       09/10 - 09/11       46               46           0              50.9           47.6           3.3                  12-Sep       47               46                  1