Research 2000: A Closer Look at Volatility

 

July 5, 2010

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

In recent days, the methodology and polling results of Research 2000 have been questioned by Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos and Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com.

 

It is ironic that both are critical of R2K, yet avoid any discussion or analysis of U.S. election fraud. Silver gives pollsters a high rank if their projections closely match the recorded vote count, whether or not it is fraudulent. On the other hand, Nate gives low rankings to pollsters such as Zogby who projected a Kerry win in 2004 and a Gore win in 2000.

 

Markos and Nate should take a hard look at the anomalous 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls. They should ask why ALL state and national final exit polls are forced to match the recorded vote.

 

The 2004 NEP forced a match to the recorded vote with a Bush/Gore 43/37% returning voter split of the 2004 electorate. In other words, the NEP required 7.4 million more returning Bush (52.6 million) than Gore (45.2) voters. This was not just implausible – it was mathematically impossible.

 

Here’s the proof:  Bush only had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000; Gore had 51.0 million. Approximately 2.5 million Bush voters died and 2 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there could have been no more than 46 million returning Bush voters. Where did the 6.6 million (52.6-46) phantom Bush voters come from? In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million, but the True Vote Model indicates that Kerry won by 10 million.

 

The 2008 NEP forced a match to the recorded vote with the 46/37% split in returning Bush/Kerry voters. In other words, the NEP indicated there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. This was not just implausible – it was mathematically impossible. Most likely there were 10 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters, assuming the 2004 True Vote. Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5 million, but the True Vote Model indicates that Obama won by 22 million.

 

Nate and Markos should also look at the presidential election state exit polls from 1988-2004. Of the 238 state exit polls, 65 exceeded the 3% MoE – and 64 were in favor of the Republicans. Was it due to reluctant Republicans and chatty Democrats? No, it was due to uncounted Democrats and phantom Republicans. Go here for the 1988-2004 state exit poll discrepancies.

 

It’s all in my book: Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes, and the National Exit Poll.

 

Silver suggests that the lack of volatility in the 2008 R2K tracking poll is indicative of a problem in methodology. He correctly notes that from Sept. 10, 2008 to Election Day, the maximum daily poll change in Obama’s share was 2%. 

 

Silver is also correct in stating that the daily margin of error is 5% for a 360-370 daily sample. He concludes that the change in Obama’s share from one day to the next should have exceeded 2% many times – but did not do so even once.

 

R2K was a 3-day tracking poll of 1100 total respondents. It was essentially no different than standard polls that sample 360-370 voters a day but only report the total sample-size with a typical 3.0% margin of error. Most tracking polls report a continuous three-day moving average, but avoid providing the daily results. R2K provided the daily numbers. Why don’t the other pollsters do likewise?

 

Therefore, we can look at the R2K tracking poll as just another standard poll that provides daily and full 3-day samples. The volatility of the R2K poll is equivalent to standard polls of 1000-1200 respondents. R2K provided more information than other 2008 tracking polls that only reported the rolling 3-day average.

 

Table 1 displays R2K daily statistics. 

The margin of error is 1.96 times the standard deviation (a measure of volatility) at the 95% confidence level.

The standard deviation of Obama’s daily poll shares was 1.83%. It was 1.59% for the 3-day moving average.

 

Table 2 is a comparison of Gallup vs. R2K.

Gallup was a registered voter (RV) poll. R2K was a likely voter (LV) poll.

The average shares and volatilities (standard deviation) closely match.

There was a strong 0.70 correlation between Obama’s Gallup and R2K shares.

There was a good 0.50 correlation between McCain’s Gallup and R2K shares.

 

                Gallup                       Change     Change                     R2K                          Change     Change

                Obama      McCain     Obama      McCain                     Obama      McCain     Obama      McCain

Avg           49.65        42.90        0.15          -0.15                         50.29        42.21        0.06          -0.02

Stdev        2.02          1.74          0.94          0.89                          1.59          1.86          0.70          0.73

 

 

Table 3 compares the R2K tracking poll and other polls (including standard, non-tracking polls)

It includes projections based on the allocation of undecided voters (UVA).

 

Assumptions

1) 75% of the undecided vote is allocated to Obama, the de-facto challenger.

2)  third parties have 1.5% (the actual recorded share).

 

The final Gallup Obama projection (57.1%) is a close match to the True Vote Model (57.5%).

Obama final projected shares:

Gallup: 53 + .75 * 5.5 = 53 + 4.13 = 57.1%

R2K:     51 + .75 * 3.5 = 51 + 2.63 = 53.6%

 

 

TABLE 1 – R2K DAILY POLL vs. 3-DAY MOVING AVERAGE 

 

DAILY                                     3-DAY AVERAGE

 

 

 

 

 

Obama

3-day Moving avg

 

 

McCain

 Obama

Margin

Change

McCain

Obama

 

avg

42.45

50.21

7.77

1.02

42.32

50.26

 

stdev

2.12

1.83

3.68

0.71

1.90

1.59

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1103

45

52

7

2

45.67

50.67

 

1102

46

50

4

0

45.00

50.67

 

1101

46

50

4

2

44.33

51.33

 

1031

43

52

9

0

44.00

51.33

 

1030

44

52

8

2

44.67

50.67

 

1029

45

50

5

0

44.67

50.00

 

1028

45

50

5

0

44.33

49.67

 

1027

44

50

6

1

43.00

49.67

 

1026

44

49

5

1

41.67

50.00

 

1025

41

50

9

1

40.00

51.33

 

1024

40

51

11

2

40.00

51.67

 

1023

39

53

14

2

40.00

52.00

 

1022

41

51

10

1

41.00

51.33

 

1021

40

52

12

1

41.33

51.00

 

1020

42

51

9

1

42.33

50.33

 

1019

42

50

8

0

42.33

49.67

 

1018

43

50

7

1

43.00

49.67

 

1017

42

49

7

1

42.67

50.33

 

1016

44

50

6

2

42.33

51.67

 

1015

42

52

10

1

41.33

52.00

 

1014

41

53

12

2

41.00

52.00

 

1013

41

51

10

1

40.67

52.00

 

1012

41

52

11

1

40.33

52.33

 

1011

40

53

13

1

39.67

52.67

 

1010

40

52

12

1

39.67

52.33

 

1009

39

53

14

1

40.33

51.67

 

1008

40

52

12

2

41.00

50.67

 

1007

42

50

8

0

41.33

50.67

 

1006

41

50

9

2

40.67

51.67

 

1005

41

52

11

1

40.00

52.33

 

1004

40

53

13

1

39.67

52.33

 

1003

39

52

13

0

39.67

51.67

 

1002

40

52

12

1

40.33

51.00

 

1001

40

51

11

1

40.33

50.67

 

930

41

50

9

1

40.67

51.00

 

929

40

51

11

1

41.00

51.33

 

928

41

52

11

1

42.00

51.00

 

927

42

51

9

1

42.67

49.67

 

926

43

50

7

2

42.67

49.00

 

925

43

48

5

1

43.00

48.33

 

924

42

49

7

1

43.00

48.67

 

923

44

48

4

1

43.67

48.33

 

922

43

49

6

1

43.33

48.67

 

921

44

48

4

1

43.00

48.67

 

920

43

49

6

0

42.33

49.33

 

919

42

49

7

1

42.00

49.67

 

918

42

50

8

0

42.33

49.33

 

917

42

50

8

2

43.00

48.67

 

916

43

48

5

0

44.00

48.00

 

915

44

48

4

0

44.67

48.00

 

914

45

48

3

0

45.67

47.33

 

913

45

48

3

2

46.00

46.67

 

912

47

46

-1

0

46.00

46.67

 

911

46

46

0

2

46.00

46.67

 

910

45

48

3

2

Na

na

 

909

47

46

-1

Na

Na

na

 

 

 

TABLE 2 – GALLUP vs. R2K TRACKING POLLS (3-DAY AVERAGE)

 

 

 

                        GALLUP                                                         RESEARCH 2000

 

 

Gallup

 

Change

Change

 

R2K

 

Change

Change

 

Obama

McCain

Obama

McCain

 

Obama

McCain

Obama

McCain

Avg

49.65

42.90

0.15

-0.15

 

50.29

42.21

0.06

-0.02

Stdev

2.02

1.74

0.94

0.89

 

1.59

1.86

0.70

0.73

Correlation

         0.70

         0.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1102

53

40

1

-1

 

51

44

0

0

1101

52

41

0

0

 

51

44

0

-1

1031

52

41

0

0

 

51

45

1

0

1030

52

41

2

-1

 

50

45

0

1

1029

50

42

-1

0

 

50

44

0

1

1028

51

42

1

-1

 

50

43

0

1

1027

50

43

-2

1

 

50

42

-1

2

1026

52

42

1

0

 

51

40

-1

0

1025

51

42

0

0

 

52

40

0

0

1024

51

42

1

0

 

52

40

1

-1

1023

50

42

0

-1

 

51

41

0

0

1022

50

43

-1

1

 

51

41

1

-1

1021

51

42

-1

1

 

50

42

0

0

1020

52

41

0

0

 

50

42

0

-1

1019

52

41

0

-1

 

50

43

0

0

1018

52

42

2

0

 

50

43

-2

1

1017

50

42

0

-1

 

52

42

0

1

1016

50

43

1

0

 

52

41

0

0

1015

49

43

-1

0

 

52

41

0

0

1014

50

43

-1

1

 

52

41

0

1

1013

51

42

0

1

 

52

40

-1

0

1012

51

41

1

-2

 

53

40

1

0

1011

50

43

-1

1

 

52

40

0

0

1010

51

42

0

1

 

52

40

1

-1

1009

51

41

-1

0

 

51

41

0

0

1008

52

41

0

0

 

51

41

-1

0

1007

52

41

1

-1

 

52

41

0

1

1006

51

42

1

0

 

52

40

0

0

1005

50

42

0

-1

 

52

40

0

0

1004

50

43

0

1

 

52

40

1

0

1003

50

42

1

0

 

51

40

0

0

1002

49

42

1

-1

 

51

40

0

-1

1001

48

43

0

-1

 

51

41

0

0

930

48

44

-1

1

 

51

41

0

-1

929

49

43

-1

1

 

51

42

1

-1

928

50

42

0

0

 

50

43

1

0

927

50

42

1

-2

 

49

43

1

0

926

49

44

1

-1

 

48

43

-1

0

925

48

45

2

-1

 

49

43

1

-1

924

46

46

-1

2

 

48

44

-1

1

923

47

44

0

0

 

49

43

0

0

922

47

44

-1

0

 

49

43

0

1

921

48

44

-1

-1

 

49

42

-1

0

920

49

45

-1

1

 

50

42

1

0

919

50

44

1

0

 

49

42

0

-1

918

49

44

1

0

 

49

43

1

-1

917

48

44

1

-1

 

48

44

0

-1

916

47

45

1

-2

 

48

45

1

-1

915

46

47

1

0

 

47

46

0

0

914

45

47

0

0

 

47

46

0

0

913

45

47

0

0

 

47

46

0

0

912

45

47

0

-1

 

47

46

-1

1

 

 

 

TABLE 3  - ALL POLLS vs. R2K TRACKING

 

Projections based on Undecided Voter Allocation

 

                                                                                                                              Projected Vote                                                                                               

                                                                                                                              Undecided Voter Allocation                                                                                             

                                                All POLLS                                                              75%           25%                                                    Research 2000                                          

                                                                            Obama       McCain   Margin      Obama       McCain      Margin                               Obama        McCain           Margin

                                                Average              49.87          42.67      7.20         54.34         44.16         10.19                                 50.33          42.33             8.00

                                                Stdev                   2.434          2.426      3.74         2.022         2.022         4.04                                  1.53            1.93               3.23

                                                Max                     54.00          47.00      16.00       59.88         47.63         21.25                                 53.00          46.00             13.00

Pollster                 Sample        Min                       44.00          36.00      0.00         50.88         38.63         3.25                                   47.00          40.00             1.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Marist                   804LV         11/03 - 11/03       52               43           9              54.6           43.9           10.8                4-Nov          51               46                  5

FOX News           971LV         11/02 - 11/03       50               43           7              54.1           44.4           9.8                  3-Nov          51               45                  6

Zogby                  1201LV       11/01 - 11/03       54               43           11            55.1           43.4           11.8                2-Nov          51               44                  7

NBC/WSJ             1011LV       11/01 - 11/02       51               43           8              54.4           44.1           10.3                1-Nov          51               44                  7

Research2k         1100LV       10/31 - 11/02       51               44           7              53.6           44.9           8.8                  31-Oct        51               45                  6

 

Gallup                 2847RV       10/31 - 11/02       53               40           13            57.1           41.4           15.8                30-Oct        50               45                  5

Hotline/FD            882LV         10/31 - 11/02       50               45           5              52.6           45.9           6.8                  29-Oct        50               44                  6

Rasmussen         3000LV       10/31 - 11/02       51               46           5              52.1           46.4           5.8                  28-Oct        50               43                  7

ABC/WP              2446RV       10/31 - 11/02       54               41           13            56.6           41.9           14.8                27-Oct        50               42                  8

CNN                     1017LV       10/30 - 11/01       51               43           8              54.4           44.1           10.3                26-Oct        51               40                  11

 

Pew                     2587LV       10/30 - 11/01       49               42           7              54.6           43.9           10.8                25-Oct        52               40                  12

Marist                   543LV         10/29 - 10/29       50               43           7              54.1           44.4           9.8                  24-Oct        52               40                  12

CBS                     1005LV       10/28 - 10/31       54               41           13            56.6           41.9           14.8                23-Oct        51               41                  10

FOX News           924LV         10/28 - 10/29       47               44           3              52.6           45.9           6.8                  22-Oct        51               41                  10

Battleground        1000LV       10/27 - 10/30       49               45           4              52.4           46.1           6.3                  21-Oct        50               42                  8

 

Ipsos                    831LV         10/23 - 10/27       50               45           5              52.6           45.9           6.8                  20-Oct        50               42                  8

Pew                    1325RV       10/23 - 10/26       52               36           16            59.9           38.6           21.3                19-Oct        50               43                  7

Newsweek          882LV         10/22 - 10/23       53               41           12            56.4           42.1           14.3                18-Oct        50               43                  7

FOX News           936LV         10/20 - 10/21       49               40           9              56.1           42.4           13.8                17-Oct        52               42                  10

CBS/NYT             771LV         10/19 - 10/22       52               39           13            57.6           40.9           16.8                16-Oct        52               41                  11

 

NBC/WSJ            1159RV       10/18 - 10/20       52               42           10            55.4           43.1           12.3                15-Oct        52               41                  11

CNN                     764LV         10/17 - 10/19       51               46           5              52.1           46.4           5.8                  14-Oct        52               41                  11

Ipsos                    773LV         10/16 - 10/20       50               42           8              54.9           43.6           11.3                13-Oct        52               40                  12

Pew Resrch        2382LV       10/16 - 10/19       53               39           14            57.9           40.6           17.3                12-Oct        53               40                  13

Pew Resrch        1191LV       10/12 - 10/14       50               40           10            56.4           42.1           14.3                11-Oct        52               40                  12

 

CBS/NYT             699LV         10/10 - 10/13       53               39           14            57.9           40.6           17.3                10-Oct        52               40                  12

LAT                      1030LV       10/10 - 10/13       50               41           9              55.6           42.9           12.8                9-Oct          51               41                  10

Ipsos                  1036RV       10/9 - 10/13         48               39           9              56.6           41.9           14.8                8-Oct          51               41                  10

ABC/WP               766LV         10/09 - 10/11       53               43           10            54.9           43.6           11.3                7-Oct          52               41                  11

Newsweek        1035RV       10/08 - 10/09       52               41           11            56.1           42.4           13.8                6-Oct          52               40                  12

 

FOX News          900RV         10/08 - 10/09       46               39           7              56.1           42.4           13.8                5-Oct          52               40                  12

NBC/WSJ            658RV         10/04 - 10/05       49               43           6              53.9           44.6           9.3                  4-Oct          52               40                  12

CBS/NYT             616LV         10/03 - 10/05       48               45           3              52.1           46.4           5.8                  3-Oct          51               40                  11

CNN                     694LV         10/03 - 10/05       53               45           8              53.4           45.1           8.3                  2-Oct          51               40                  11

Ipsos                  858RV         10/02 - 10/06       47               40           7              55.6           42.9           12.8                1-Oct          51               41                  10

 

Marist                   943LV         09/28 - 09/30       49               44           5              53.1           45.4           7.8                  30-Sep        51               41                  10

AP/GfK                808LV         09/27 - 09/30       48               41           7              55.1           43.4           11.8                29-Sep        51               42                  9

CBS/NYT             769LV         09/27 - 09/30       50               41           9              55.6           42.9           12.8                28-Sep        50               43                  7

Ipsos                  1007RV       09/27 - 09/30       48               45           3              52.1           46.4           5.8                  27-Sep       49               43                  6

Time                     1133LV       09/27 - 09/29       50               43           7              54.1           44.4           9.8                  26-Sep        48               43                  5

 

Pew Resrch        1181LV       09/27 - 09/29       49               43           6              53.9           44.6           9.3                  25-Sep        49               43                  6

ABC/WP               916LV         09/27 - 09/29       50               46           4              51.9           46.6           5.3                  24-Sep        48               44                  4

CBS/NYT             844RV         09/22 - 09/24       47               42           5              54.1           44.4           9.8                  23-Sep       49               43                  6

ABC/WP               780LV         09/20 - 09/22       52               43           9              54.6           43.9           10.8                22-Sep        49               43                  6

FOX News          900RV         09/20 - 09/22       45               39           6              55.9           42.6           13.3                21-Sep       49               42                  7

 

Ipsos                  923RV         09/20 - 09/22       44               43           1              52.6           45.9           6.8                  20-Sep       50               42                  8

NBC/WSJ             838LV         09/19 - 09/22       48               46           2              51.4           47.1           4.3                  19-Sep        49               42                  7

LAT                     1085RV       09/19 - 09/22       49               45           4              52.4           46.1           6.3                  18-Sep       49               43                  6

CNN                     697LV         09/19 - 09/21       51               47           4              51.4           47.1           4.3                  17-Sep        48               44                  4

Zogby                  1008LV       09/13 - 09/15       47               45           2              51.9           46.6           5.3                  16-Sep        48               45                  3

 

Ipsos                  1046RV       09/13 - 09/15       45               45           0              51.4           47.1           4.3                  15-Sep       48               46                  2

CBS/NYT             800LV         09/12 - 09/16       49               44           5              53.1           45.4           7.8                  14-Sep        47               46                  1

Quinnipiac            987LV         09/11 - 09/16       49               45           4              52.4           46.1           6.3                  13-Sep        47               46                  1

Newsweek        1038RV       09/10 - 09/11       46               46           0              50.9           47.6           3.3                  12-Sep       47               46                  1