In recent days, the methodology and polling results of
Research 2000 have been questioned by Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos and
Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com.
It is
ironic that both are critical of R2K, yet avoid any discussion or analysis of
U.S. election fraud. Silver gives pollsters a high rank if their projections
closely match the recorded vote count, whether or not it is fraudulent. On the
other hand, Nate gives low rankings to pollsters such as Zogby who projected a Kerry
win in 2004 and a Gore win in 2000.
Markos and Nate should take a hard look at the anomalous 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls. They should ask why ALL state and national final exit polls are forced to match the recorded vote.
The
2004 NEP forced a match to the recorded vote with a Bush/Gore 43/37% returning
voter split of the 2004 electorate. In other words, the NEP required 7.4
million more returning Bush (52.6 million) than Gore (45.2) voters. This was
not just implausible – it was mathematically impossible.
Here’s
the proof: Bush only had 50.5 million
recorded votes in 2000; Gore had 51.0 million. Approximately 2.5 million Bush
voters died and 2 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there
could have been no more than 46 million returning Bush voters. Where did the 6.6
million (52.6-46) phantom Bush voters come from? In 2004, Bush won the recorded
vote by 3.0 million, but the True Vote Model
indicates that Kerry won by 10 million.
The
2008 NEP forced a match to the recorded vote with the 46/37% split in returning
Bush/Kerry voters. In other words, the NEP indicated there were 12 million more
returning Bush than Kerry voters. This was not just implausible – it was
mathematically impossible. Most likely there were 10 million more returning
Kerry than Bush voters, assuming the 2004 True Vote. Obama won the recorded vote
by 9.5 million, but the True Vote Model
indicates that Obama won by
22 million.
Nate
and Markos should also look at the presidential election state exit polls from
1988-2004. Of the 238 state exit polls, 65 exceeded the 3% MoE – and 64 were in
favor of the Republicans. Was it due to reluctant Republicans and chatty
Democrats? No, it was due to uncounted Democrats and phantom Republicans. Go here for
the 1988-2004 state exit poll discrepancies.
It’s
all in my book: Proving
Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes, and the National Exit Poll.
Silver suggests that the lack of volatility in the 2008 R2K tracking poll is indicative of a problem in methodology. He correctly notes that from Sept. 10, 2008 to Election Day, the maximum daily poll change in Obama’s share was 2%.
Silver is also correct in stating that the daily margin of error is 5% for a 360-370 daily sample. He concludes that the change in Obama’s share from one day to the next should have exceeded 2% many times – but did not do so even once.
R2K was a 3-day tracking poll of 1100 total respondents. It was essentially no different than standard polls that sample 360-370 voters a day but only report the total sample-size with a typical 3.0% margin of error. Most tracking polls report a continuous three-day moving average, but avoid providing the daily results. R2K provided the daily numbers. Why don’t the other pollsters do likewise?
Therefore, we can look at the R2K tracking poll as just
another standard poll that provides daily and full 3-day samples. The
volatility of the R2K poll is equivalent to standard polls of 1000-1200
respondents. R2K provided more information than other 2008 tracking polls
that only reported the rolling 3-day average.
Table 1 displays R2K daily statistics.
The margin of error is 1.96 times the standard deviation (a measure of volatility) at the 95% confidence level.
The standard deviation of Obama’s daily poll shares was 1.83%. It was 1.59% for the 3-day moving average.
Table 2 is a comparison of Gallup vs. R2K.
Gallup was a registered voter (RV) poll. R2K was a likely voter (LV) poll.
The average shares and volatilities (standard deviation) closely match.
There was a strong 0.70
correlation between Obama’s Gallup and R2K shares.
There was a good 0.50
correlation between McCain’s Gallup and R2K shares.
Gallup Change Change R2K Change Change
Obama McCain Obama McCain Obama McCain Obama McCain
Avg 49.65 42.90 0.15 -0.15 50.29 42.21 0.06 -0.02
Stdev 2.02 1.74 0.94 0.89 1.59 1.86 0.70 0.73
Table 3 compares the R2K tracking poll and other polls
(including standard, non-tracking polls)
It includes projections based on the allocation of
undecided voters (UVA).
1) 75% of the undecided vote is allocated to Obama, the de-facto challenger.
2) third parties have 1.5% (the actual recorded share).
The final Gallup Obama projection (57.1%) is a close match to the True Vote Model (57.5%).
Obama final projected shares:
Gallup: 53 + .75 * 5.5 = 53 + 4.13 = 57.1%
DAILY 3-DAY AVERAGE
|
|
|
|
|
Obama |
3-day
Moving avg |
|
|
|
|
McCain |
Obama |
Margin |
Change |
McCain |
Obama |
|
|
avg |
42.45 |
50.21 |
7.77 |
1.02 |
42.32 |
50.26 |
|
|
stdev |
2.12 |
1.83 |
3.68 |
0.71 |
1.90 |
1.59 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1103 |
45 |
52 |
7 |
2 |
45.67 |
50.67 |
|
|
1102 |
46 |
50 |
4 |
0 |
45.00 |
50.67 |
|
|
1101 |
46 |
50 |
4 |
2 |
44.33 |
51.33 |
|
|
1031 |
43 |
52 |
9 |
0 |
44.00 |
51.33 |
|
|
1030 |
44 |
52 |
8 |
2 |
44.67 |
50.67 |
|
|
1029 |
45 |
50 |
5 |
0 |
44.67 |
50.00 |
|
|
1028 |
45 |
50 |
5 |
0 |
44.33 |
49.67 |
|
|
1027 |
44 |
50 |
6 |
1 |
43.00 |
49.67 |
|
|
1026 |
44 |
49 |
5 |
1 |
41.67 |
50.00 |
|
|
1025 |
41 |
50 |
9 |
1 |
40.00 |
51.33 |
|
|
1024 |
40 |
51 |
11 |
2 |
40.00 |
51.67 |
|
|
1023 |
39 |
53 |
14 |
2 |
40.00 |
52.00 |
|
|
1022 |
41 |
51 |
10 |
1 |
41.00 |
51.33 |
|
|
1021 |
40 |
52 |
12 |
1 |
41.33 |
51.00 |
|
|
1020 |
42 |
51 |
9 |
1 |
42.33 |
50.33 |
|
|
1019 |
42 |
50 |
8 |
0 |
42.33 |
49.67 |
|
|
1018 |
43 |
50 |
7 |
1 |
43.00 |
49.67 |
|
|
1017 |
42 |
49 |
7 |
1 |
42.67 |
50.33 |
|
|
1016 |
44 |
50 |
6 |
2 |
42.33 |
51.67 |
|
|
1015 |
42 |
52 |
10 |
1 |
41.33 |
52.00 |
|
|
1014 |
41 |
53 |
12 |
2 |
41.00 |
52.00 |
|
|
1013 |
41 |
51 |
10 |
1 |
40.67 |
52.00 |
|
|
1012 |
41 |
52 |
11 |
1 |
40.33 |
52.33 |
|
|
1011 |
40 |
53 |
13 |
1 |
39.67 |
52.67 |
|
|
1010 |
40 |
52 |
12 |
1 |
39.67 |
52.33 |
|
|
1009 |
39 |
53 |
14 |
1 |
40.33 |
51.67 |
|
|
1008 |
40 |
52 |
12 |
2 |
41.00 |
50.67 |
|
|
1007 |
42 |
50 |
8 |
0 |
41.33 |
50.67 |
|
|
1006 |
41 |
50 |
9 |
2 |
40.67 |
51.67 |
|
|
1005 |
41 |
52 |
11 |
1 |
40.00 |
52.33 |
|
|
1004 |
40 |
53 |
13 |
1 |
39.67 |
52.33 |
|
|
1003 |
39 |
52 |
13 |
0 |
39.67 |
51.67 |
|
|
1002 |
40 |
52 |
12 |
1 |
40.33 |
51.00 |
|
|
1001 |
40 |
51 |
11 |
1 |
40.33 |
50.67 |
|
|
930 |
41 |
50 |
9 |
1 |
40.67 |
51.00 |
|
|
929 |
40 |
51 |
11 |
1 |
41.00 |
51.33 |
|
|
928 |
41 |
52 |
11 |
1 |
42.00 |
51.00 |
|
|
927 |
42 |
51 |
9 |
1 |
42.67 |
49.67 |
|
|
926 |
43 |
50 |
7 |
2 |
42.67 |
49.00 |
|
|
925 |
43 |
48 |
5 |
1 |
43.00 |
48.33 |
|
|
924 |
42 |
49 |
7 |
1 |
43.00 |
48.67 |
|
|
923 |
44 |
48 |
4 |
1 |
43.67 |
48.33 |
|
|
922 |
43 |
49 |
6 |
1 |
43.33 |
48.67 |
|
|
921 |
44 |
48 |
4 |
1 |
43.00 |
48.67 |
|
|
920 |
43 |
49 |
6 |
0 |
42.33 |
49.33 |
|
|
919 |
42 |
49 |
7 |
1 |
42.00 |
49.67 |
|
|
918 |
42 |
50 |
8 |
0 |
42.33 |
49.33 |
|
|
917 |
42 |
50 |
8 |
2 |
43.00 |
48.67 |
|
|
916 |
43 |
48 |
5 |
0 |
44.00 |
48.00 |
|
|
915 |
44 |
48 |
4 |
0 |
44.67 |
48.00 |
|
|
914 |
45 |
48 |
3 |
0 |
45.67 |
47.33 |
|
|
913 |
45 |
48 |
3 |
2 |
46.00 |
46.67 |
|
|
912 |
47 |
46 |
-1 |
0 |
46.00 |
46.67 |
|
|
911 |
46 |
46 |
0 |
2 |
46.00 |
46.67 |
|
|
910 |
45 |
48 |
3 |
2 |
Na |
na |
|
|
909 |
47 |
46 |
-1 |
Na |
Na |
na |
|
TABLE 2 – GALLUP vs. R2K TRACKING POLLS (3-DAY AVERAGE)
GALLUP RESEARCH 2000
|
|
Gallup |
|
Change |
Change |
|
R2K |
|
Change |
Change |
|
|
Obama |
McCain |
Obama |
McCain |
|
Obama |
McCain |
Obama |
McCain |
|
Avg |
49.65 |
42.90 |
0.15 |
-0.15 |
|
50.29 |
42.21 |
0.06 |
-0.02 |
|
Stdev |
2.02 |
1.74 |
0.94 |
0.89 |
|
1.59 |
1.86 |
0.70 |
0.73 |
|
Correlation |
0.70 |
0.50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1102 |
53 |
40 |
1 |
-1 |
|
51 |
44 |
0 |
0 |
|
1101 |
52 |
41 |
0 |
0 |
|
51 |
44 |
0 |
-1 |
|
1031 |
52 |
41 |
0 |
0 |
|
51 |
45 |
1 |
0 |
|
1030 |
52 |
41 |
2 |
-1 |
|
50 |
45 |
0 |
1 |
|
1029 |
50 |
42 |
-1 |
0 |
|
50 |
44 |
0 |
1 |
|
1028 |
51 |
42 |
1 |
-1 |
|
50 |
43 |
0 |
1 |
|
1027 |
50 |
43 |
-2 |
1 |
|
50 |
42 |
-1 |
2 |
|
1026 |
52 |
42 |
1 |
0 |
|
51 |
40 |
-1 |
0 |
|
1025 |
51 |
42 |
0 |
0 |
|
52 |
40 |
0 |
0 |
|
1024 |
51 |
42 |
1 |
0 |
|
52 |
40 |
1 |
-1 |
|
1023 |
50 |
42 |
0 |
-1 |
|
51 |
41 |
0 |
0 |
|
1022 |
50 |
43 |
-1 |
1 |
|
51 |
41 |
1 |
-1 |
|
1021 |
51 |
42 |
-1 |
1 |
|
50 |
42 |
0 |
0 |
|
1020 |
52 |
41 |
0 |
0 |
|
50 |
42 |
0 |
-1 |
|
1019 |
52 |
41 |
0 |
-1 |
|
50 |
43 |
0 |
0 |
|
1018 |
52 |
42 |
2 |
0 |
|
50 |
43 |
-2 |
1 |
|
1017 |
50 |
42 |
0 |
-1 |
|
52 |
42 |
0 |
1 |
|
1016 |
50 |
43 |
1 |
0 |
|
52 |
41 |
0 |
0 |
|
1015 |
49 |
43 |
-1 |
0 |
|
52 |
41 |
0 |
0 |
|
1014 |
50 |
43 |
-1 |
1 |
|
52 |
41 |
0 |
1 |
|
1013 |
51 |
42 |
0 |
1 |
|
52 |
40 |
-1 |
0 |
|
1012 |
51 |
41 |
1 |
-2 |
|
53 |
40 |
1 |
0 |
|
1011 |
50 |
43 |
-1 |
1 |
|
52 |
40 |
0 |
0 |
|
1010 |
51 |
42 |
0 |
1 |
|
52 |
40 |
1 |
-1 |
|
1009 |
51 |
41 |
-1 |
0 |
|
51 |
41 |
0 |
0 |
|
1008 |
52 |
41 |
0 |
0 |
|
51 |
41 |
-1 |
0 |
|
1007 |
52 |
41 |
1 |
-1 |
|
52 |
41 |
0 |
1 |
|
1006 |
51 |
42 |
1 |
0 |
|
52 |
40 |
0 |
0 |
|
1005 |
50 |
42 |
0 |
-1 |
|
52 |
40 |
0 |
0 |
|
1004 |
50 |
43 |
0 |
1 |
|
52 |
40 |
1 |
0 |
|
1003 |
50 |
42 |
1 |
0 |
|
51 |
40 |
0 |
0 |
|
1002 |
49 |
42 |
1 |
-1 |
|
51 |
40 |
0 |
-1 |
|
1001 |
48 |
43 |
0 |
-1 |
|
51 |
41 |
0 |
0 |
|
930 |
48 |
44 |
-1 |
1 |
|
51 |
41 |
0 |
-1 |
|
929 |
49 |
43 |
-1 |
1 |
|
51 |
42 |
1 |
-1 |
|
928 |
50 |
42 |
0 |
0 |
|
50 |
43 |
1 |
0 |
|
927 |
50 |
42 |
1 |
-2 |
|
49 |
43 |
1 |
0 |
|
926 |
49 |
44 |
1 |
-1 |
|
48 |
43 |
-1 |
0 |
|
925 |
48 |
45 |
2 |
-1 |
|
49 |
43 |
1 |
-1 |
|
924 |
46 |
46 |
-1 |
2 |
|
48 |
44 |
-1 |
1 |
|
923 |
47 |
44 |
0 |
0 |
|
49 |
43 |
0 |
0 |
|
922 |
47 |
44 |
-1 |
0 |
|
49 |
43 |
0 |
1 |
|
921 |
48 |
44 |
-1 |
-1 |
|
49 |
42 |
-1 |
0 |
|
920 |
49 |
45 |
-1 |
1 |
|
50 |
42 |
1 |
0 |
|
919 |
50 |
44 |
1 |
0 |
|
49 |
42 |
0 |
-1 |
|
918 |
49 |
44 |
1 |
0 |
|
49 |
43 |
1 |
-1 |
|
917 |
48 |
44 |
1 |
-1 |
|
48 |
44 |
0 |
-1 |
|
916 |
47 |
45 |
1 |
-2 |
|
48 |
45 |
1 |
-1 |
|
915 |
46 |
47 |
1 |
0 |
|
47 |
46 |
0 |
0 |
|
914 |
45 |
47 |
0 |
0 |
|
47 |
46 |
0 |
0 |
|
913 |
45 |
47 |
0 |
0 |
|
47 |
46 |
0 |
0 |
|
912 |
45 |
47 |
0 |
-1 |
|
47 |
46 |
-1 |
1 |
TABLE 3 - ALL POLLS vs. R2K TRACKING
Projections based on Undecided Voter Allocation
Projected Vote
Undecided Voter Allocation
All POLLS 75% 25% Research 2000
Obama McCain Margin Obama McCain Margin Obama McCain Margin
Average 49.87 42.67 7.20 54.34 44.16 10.19 50.33 42.33 8.00
Stdev 2.434 2.426 3.74 2.022 2.022 4.04 1.53 1.93 3.23
Max 54.00 47.00 16.00 59.88 47.63 21.25 53.00 46.00 13.00
Pollster Sample Min 44.00 36.00 0.00 50.88 38.63 3.25 47.00 40.00 1.00
Marist 804LV 11/03 - 11/03 52 43 9 54.6 43.9 10.8 4-Nov 51 46 5
FOX News 971LV 11/02 - 11/03 50 43 7 54.1 44.4 9.8 3-Nov 51 45 6
Zogby 1201LV 11/01 -
11/03 54 43 11 55.1 43.4 11.8 2-Nov 51 44 7
NBC/WSJ 1011LV 11/01 - 11/02 51 43 8 54.4 44.1 10.3 1-Nov 51 44 7
Research2k 1100LV 10/31 - 11/02 51 44 7 53.6 44.9 8.8 31-Oct 51 45 6
Gallup 2847RV 10/31 - 11/02 53 40 13 57.1 41.4 15.8 30-Oct 50 45 5
Hotline/FD 882LV 10/31 - 11/02 50 45 5 52.6 45.9 6.8 29-Oct 50 44 6
Rasmussen 3000LV 10/31 - 11/02 51 46 5 52.1 46.4 5.8 28-Oct 50 43 7
ABC/WP 2446RV 10/31 - 11/02 54 41 13 56.6 41.9 14.8 27-Oct 50 42 8
CNN 1017LV 10/30 - 11/01 51 43 8 54.4 44.1 10.3 26-Oct 51 40 11
Pew 2587LV 10/30 - 11/01 49 42 7 54.6 43.9 10.8 25-Oct 52 40 12
Marist 543LV 10/29 - 10/29 50 43 7 54.1 44.4 9.8 24-Oct 52 40 12
CBS 1005LV 10/28 - 10/31 54 41 13 56.6 41.9 14.8 23-Oct 51 41 10
FOX News 924LV 10/28 - 10/29 47 44 3 52.6 45.9 6.8 22-Oct 51 41 10
Battleground 1000LV 10/27 - 10/30 49 45 4 52.4 46.1 6.3 21-Oct 50 42 8
Ipsos 831LV 10/23 - 10/27 50 45 5 52.6 45.9 6.8 20-Oct 50 42 8
Pew 1325RV 10/23 - 10/26 52 36 16 59.9 38.6 21.3 19-Oct 50 43 7
Newsweek 882LV 10/22 - 10/23 53 41 12 56.4 42.1 14.3 18-Oct 50 43 7
FOX News 936LV 10/20 - 10/21 49 40 9 56.1 42.4 13.8 17-Oct 52 42 10
CBS/NYT 771LV 10/19 - 10/22 52 39 13 57.6 40.9 16.8 16-Oct 52 41 11
NBC/WSJ 1159RV 10/18 - 10/20 52 42 10 55.4 43.1 12.3 15-Oct 52 41 11
CNN 764LV 10/17 - 10/19 51 46 5 52.1 46.4 5.8 14-Oct 52 41 11
Ipsos 773LV 10/16 - 10/20 50 42 8 54.9 43.6 11.3 13-Oct 52 40 12
Pew Resrch 2382LV 10/16 - 10/19 53 39 14 57.9 40.6 17.3 12-Oct 53 40 13
Pew Resrch 1191LV 10/12 - 10/14 50 40 10 56.4 42.1 14.3 11-Oct 52 40 12
CBS/NYT 699LV 10/10 - 10/13 53 39 14 57.9 40.6 17.3 10-Oct 52 40 12
LAT 1030LV 10/10 - 10/13 50 41 9 55.6 42.9 12.8 9-Oct 51 41 10
Ipsos 1036RV 10/9 - 10/13 48 39 9 56.6 41.9 14.8 8-Oct 51 41 10
ABC/WP 766LV 10/09
- 10/11 53 43 10 54.9 43.6 11.3 7-Oct 52 41 11
Newsweek 1035RV 10/08 - 10/09 52 41 11 56.1 42.4 13.8 6-Oct 52 40 12
FOX News 900RV 10/08 - 10/09 46 39 7 56.1 42.4 13.8 5-Oct 52 40 12
NBC/WSJ 658RV 10/04 - 10/05 49 43 6 53.9 44.6 9.3 4-Oct 52 40 12
CBS/NYT 616LV 10/03 - 10/05 48 45 3 52.1 46.4 5.8 3-Oct 51 40 11
CNN 694LV 10/03 - 10/05 53 45 8 53.4 45.1 8.3 2-Oct 51 40 11
Ipsos 858RV 10/02 - 10/06 47 40 7 55.6 42.9 12.8 1-Oct 51 41 10
Marist 943LV 09/28 - 09/30 49 44 5 53.1 45.4 7.8 30-Sep 51 41 10
AP/GfK 808LV 09/27
- 09/30 48 41 7 55.1 43.4 11.8 29-Sep 51 42 9
CBS/NYT 769LV 09/27 - 09/30 50 41 9 55.6 42.9 12.8 28-Sep 50 43 7
Ipsos 1007RV 09/27 - 09/30 48 45 3 52.1 46.4 5.8 27-Sep 49 43 6
Time 1133LV 09/27 - 09/29 50 43 7 54.1 44.4 9.8 26-Sep 48 43 5
Pew Resrch 1181LV 09/27 - 09/29 49 43 6 53.9 44.6 9.3 25-Sep 49 43 6
ABC/WP 916LV 09/27
- 09/29 50 46 4 51.9 46.6 5.3 24-Sep 48 44 4
CBS/NYT 844RV 09/22 - 09/24 47 42 5 54.1 44.4 9.8 23-Sep 49 43 6
ABC/WP 780LV 09/20
- 09/22 52 43 9 54.6 43.9 10.8 22-Sep 49 43 6
FOX News 900RV 09/20 - 09/22 45 39 6 55.9 42.6 13.3 21-Sep 49 42 7
Ipsos 923RV 09/20 - 09/22 44 43 1 52.6 45.9 6.8 20-Sep 50 42 8
NBC/WSJ 838LV 09/19 - 09/22 48 46 2 51.4 47.1 4.3 19-Sep 49 42 7
LAT 1085RV 09/19 - 09/22 49 45 4 52.4 46.1 6.3 18-Sep 49 43 6
CNN 697LV 09/19 - 09/21 51 47 4 51.4 47.1 4.3 17-Sep 48 44 4
Zogby 1008LV 09/13 -
09/15 47 45 2 51.9 46.6 5.3 16-Sep 48 45 3
Ipsos 1046RV 09/13 - 09/15 45 45 0 51.4 47.1 4.3 15-Sep 48 46 2
CBS/NYT 800LV 09/12 - 09/16 49 44 5 53.1 45.4 7.8 14-Sep 47 46 1
Quinnipiac 987LV 09/11 - 09/16 49 45 4 52.4 46.1 6.3 13-Sep 47 46 1
Newsweek 1038RV 09/10 - 09/11 46 46 0 50.9 47.6 3.3 12-Sep 47 46 1