Open Letter to Nate Silver (part 2): Zogby/Rasmussen, RV/LV, Simulation Mean/Expected EV, Recorded/True Vote

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

July 17, 2010

 

This is an update to my open letter to you of a few days ago. The purpose is to further discuss a) the difference between 2008 pre-election registered voter (RV) polls and likely voter (LV) polls for forecasting, b) Zogby’s poll vs. selected GOP-leaning polls and c) the close match between the RV polls and the post-election True Vote Model and d) Pollster rankings measured by how close their projections were to the True Vote.

 

I have added three new tables.

 

Table 5 is a 2008 Pollster True Vote Ranking Chart (15 polls)

The Gallup (RV) tracking poll ranks #1 with a 57.1% Obama projection (after UVA)

CBS (LV) and ABC/WP (RV) are tied at #2 with a 56.6% projected share.

 

Zogby is ranked #4 with a 55.1% share.

 

Pollsters with a GOP bias brought up the rear:

Battleground ranked #14 with a 52.4% share.

Rasmussen ranked last at #15 with a 52.1% share.

 

Table 6 is a comparison of final RV and LV polls

The average LV poll had Obama winning by 50.3-44.0 before allocating undecided voters (UVA) and 53.4-45.1 after UVA.

The average RV poll had Obama winning by 53.3-39.5 before UVA and 57.6-40.9 after UVA.

Zogby’s LV poll had Obama winning by 54-43 before UVA and 55.1-43.4 after UVA.

 

Consider the final ABC and Gallup RV Polls (combined 5293 sample, 1.8% MoE).

They had Obama winning by 53.5-40.5 before UVA and 56.9-41.6 after UVA.

 

You rank Zogby dead last, yet his LV poll numbers are right in the middle of the RV and LV groups.

He is closer to ABC and Gallup than Rasmussen, Hotline and FOX.

 

You have lowered Rasmussen’s ranking but you still rank him much higher than Zogby.

Rasmussen has a strong GOP bias. Hotline, FOX and Battleground also lean to the GOP.

 

Do you have any evidence that Zogby’s polls are biased?

Do you still feel that you are justified in ranking Zogby last?

 

Table 7 displays the post-election True Vote Model.

It closely matches the RV projections.

It proves that the NEP returning voter mix is bogus.

 

My final 2008 Election Model gave Obama 53.1%. The 5000 election- trial Monte Carlo EV simulation produced a 365.8 mean EV.

The convergence of the mean to the expected value illustrates the Law of Large Numbers.

The expected value is given by the simple summation: EV = å Win probability (i) * EV (i), where i=1,51 states

Obama had an expected 365.3 electoral votes, matching his recorded total.

 

The Election Model exactly matched the recorded EV and was within 0.2% of the popular vote.

But it was wrong. It understated Obama’s True Vote.

The final state polls were LVs, not RVs.

 

Do you still believe that Obama’s 52.9% recorded share reflects the True Vote?

Do you still think that Obama had just 365 electoral votes?

 

The True Vote model indicates that Obama had close to 58% and over 420 EV!

 

TABLE 4

ALL POLLS VS. RESEARCH 2000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Undecided Voter Allocation

 

 

 

 

 

 

All POLLS

 

 

 

75%

25%

 

 

Research 2000

 

 

 

 

Obama

McCain

Margin

Obama

McCain

Margin

 

Obama

McCain

Margin

 

 

Average

49.87

42.67

7.2

54.34

44.16

10.19

 

50.33

42.33

8

 

 

Stdev

2.434

2.426

3.74

2.022

2.022

4.04

 

1.53

1.93

3.23

 

 

Max

54

47

16

59.88

47.63

21.25

 

53

46

13

Pollster

Sample

Min

44

36

0

50.88

38.63

3.25

 

47

40

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

          Nov

 

 

 

Marist

804LV

11/03 - 11/03

52

43

9

54.6

43.9

10.8

4

51

46

5

FOX News

971LV

11/02 - 11/03

50

43

7

54.1

44.4

9.8

3

51

45

6

Zogby

1201LV

11/01 - 11/03

54

43

11

55.1

43.4

11.8

2

51

44

7

NBC/WSJ

1011LV

11/01 - 11/02

51

43

8

54.4

44.1

10.3

1

51

44

7

Research2k

1100LV

10/31 - 11/02

51

44

7

53.6

44.9

8.8

3

51

45

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

               Oct

 

 

 

Gallup

2847RV

10/31 - 11/02

53

40

13

57.1

41.4

15.8

30

50

45

5

Hotline/FD

882LV

10/31 - 11/02

50

45

5

52.6

45.9

6.8

29

50

44

6

Rasmussen

3000LV

10/31 - 11/02

51

46

5

52.1

46.4

5.8

28

50

43

7

ABC/WP

2446RV

10/31 - 11/02

54

41

13

56.6

41.9

14.8

27

50

42

8

CNN

1017LV

10/30 - 11/01

51

43

8

54.4

44.1

10.3

26

51

40

11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pew

2587LV

10/30 - 11/01

49

42

7

54.6

43.9

10.8

25

52

40

12

Marist

543LV

10/29 - 10/29

50

43

7

54.1

44.4

9.8

24

52

40

12

CBS

1005LV

10/28 - 10/31

54

41

13

56.6

41.9

14.8

23

51

41

10

FOX News

924LV

10/28 - 10/29

47

44

3

52.6

45.9

6.8

22

51

41

10

Battleground

1000LV

10/27 - 10/30

49

45

4

52.4

46.1

6.3

21

50

42

8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ipsos

831LV

10/23 - 10/27

50

45

5

52.6

45.9

6.8

20

50

42

8

Pew

1325RV

10/23 - 10/26

52

36

16

59.9

38.6

21.3

19

50

43

7

Newsweek

882LV

10/22 - 10/23

53

41

12

56.4

42.1

14.3

18

50

43

7

FOX News

936LV

10/20 - 10/21

49

40

9

56.1

42.4

13.8

17

52

42

10

CBS/NYT

771LV

10/19 - 10/22

52

39

13

57.6

40.9

16.8

16

52

41

11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NBC/WSJ

1159RV

10/18 - 10/20

52

42

10

55.4

43.1

12.3

15

52

41

11

CNN

764LV

10/17 - 10/19

51

46

5

52.1

46.4

5.8

14

52

41

11

Ipsos

773LV

10/16 - 10/20

50

42

8

54.9

43.6

11.3

13

52

40

12

Pew Resrch

2382LV

10/16 - 10/19

53

39

14

57.9

40.6

17.3

12

53

40

13

Pew Resrch

1191LV

10/12 - 10/14

50

40

10

56.4

42.1

14.3

11

52

40

12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CBS/NYT

699LV

10/10 - 10/13

53

39

14

57.9

40.6

17.3

10

52

40

12

LAT

1030LV

10/10 - 10/13

50

41

9

55.6

42.9

12.8

9

51

41

10

Ipsos

1036RV

10/9 - 10/13

48

39

9

56.6

41.9

14.8

8

51

41

10

ABC/WP

766LV

10/09 - 10/11

53

43

10

54.9

43.6

11.3

7

52

41

11

Newsweek

1035RV

10/08 - 10/09

52

41

11

56.1

42.4

13.8

6

52

40

12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOX News

900RV

10/08 - 10/09

46

39

7

56.1

42.4

13.8

5

52

40

12

NBC/WSJ

658RV

10/04 - 10/05

49

43

6

53.9

44.6

9.3

4

52

40

12

CBS/NYT

616LV

10/03 - 10/05

48

45

3

52.1

46.4

5.8

3

51

40

11

CNN

694LV

10/03 - 10/05

53

45

8

53.4

45.1

8.3

2

51

40

11

Ipsos

858RV

10/02 - 10/06

47

40

7

55.6

42.9

12.8

1

51

41

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

             Sept

 

 

 

Marist

943LV

09/28 - 09/30

49

44

5

53.1

45.4

7.8

30

51

41

10

AP/GfK

808LV

09/27 - 09/30

48

41

7

55.1

43.4

11.8

29

51

42

9

CBS/NYT

769LV

09/27 - 09/30

50

41

9

55.6

42.9

12.8

28

50

43

7

Ipsos

1007RV

09/27 - 09/30

48

45

3

52.1

46.4

5.8

27

49

43

6

Time

1133LV

09/27 - 09/29

50

43

7

54.1

44.4

9.8

26

48

43

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pew Resrch

1181LV

09/27 - 09/29

49

43

6

53.9

44.6

9.3

25

49

43

6

ABC/WP

916LV

09/27 - 09/29

50

46

4

51.9

46.6

5.3

24

48

44

4

CBS/NYT

844RV

09/22 - 09/24

47

42

5

54.1

44.4

9.8

23

49

43

6

ABC/WP

780LV

09/20 - 09/22

52

43

9

54.6

43.9

10.8

22

49

43

6

FOX News

900RV

09/20 - 09/22

45

39

6

55.9

42.6

13.3

21

49

42

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ipsos

923RV

09/20 - 09/22

44

43

1

52.6

45.9

6.8

20

50

42

8

NBC/WSJ

838LV

09/19 - 09/22

48

46

2

51.4

47.1

4.3

19

49

42

7

LAT

1085RV

09/19 - 09/22

49

45

4

52.4

46.1

6.3

18

49

43

6

CNN

697LV

09/19 - 09/21

51

47

4

51.4

47.1

4.3

17

48

44

4

Zogby

1008LV

09/13 - 09/15

47

45

2

51.9

46.6

5.3

16

48

45

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ipsos

1046RV

09/13 - 09/15

45

45

0

51.4

47.1

4.3

15

48

46

2

CBS/NYT

800LV

09/12 - 09/16

49

44

5

53.1

45.4

7.8

14

47

46

1

Quinnipiac

987LV

09/11 - 09/16

49

45

4

52.4

46.1

6.3

13

47

46

1

Newsweek

1038RV

09/10 - 09/11

46

46

0

50.9

47.6

3.3

12

47

46

1

 

 

TABLE 5

2008 TRUE VOTE POLLSTER RANK

 

 

 

End

 

 

Final Poll

 

Projection

 

Rank

Poll

Date

Sample

MoE

Obama

McCain

Obama

McCain

1

 Gallup

2-Nov

 2847RV

1.84%

53

40

57.13

41.38

2

 ABC/WP

2-Nov

 2446RV

1.98%

54

41

56.63

41.88

3

 CBS

31-Oct

 1005LV

3.09%

54

41

56.63

41.88

4

 Zogby

3-Nov

 1201LV

2.83%

54

43

55.13

43.38

5

 Marist

3-Nov

 804LV

3.46%

52

43

54.63

43.88

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

 Pew

1-Nov

 2587LV

1.93%

49

42

54.63

43.88

7

 NBC/WSJ

2-Nov

 1011LV

3.08%

51

43

54.38

44.13

8

 CNN

1-Nov

 1017LV

3.07%

51

43

54.38

44.13

9

 FOX News

3-Nov

 971LV

3.14%

50

43

54.13

44.38

10

 Marist

29-Oct

 543LV

4.21%

50

43

54.13

44.38

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11

 Research2k

2-Nov

 1100LV

2.95%

51

44

53.63

44.88

12

 Hotline/FD

2-Nov

 882LV

3.30%

50

45

52.63

45.88

13

 FOX News

29-Oct

 924LV

3.22%

47

44

52.63

45.88

14

 Battleground

30-Oct

 1000LV

3.10%

49

45

52.38

46.13

15

 Rasmussen

2-Nov

 3000LV

1.79%

51

46

52.13

46.38

 

 

TABLE 6

2008 REGISTERED AND LIKELY VOTER POLLS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projection: Allocate Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

75%

25%

 

LV Poll

Size

Date

Obama

McCain

Margin

 

Obama

McCain

Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOX News

971

 11/02-03

50

43

7

 

54.1

44.4

9.8

Hotline/FD

882

 10/31-11/02

50

45

5

 

52.6

45.9

6.8

Rasmussen

3000

 10/31-11/02

51

46

5

 

52.1

46.4

5.8

CNN

1017

 10/30-11/01

51

43

8

 

54.4

44.1

10.3

Pew

2587

 10/30-11/01

49

42

7

 

54.6

43.9

10.8

Average

1872

 10/30-11/03

50.3

44

6.3

 

53.4

45.1

8.4

 

Zogby (LV)

1201

 11/01-03

54

43

11

 

55.1

43.4

11.8

 

RV Poll

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gallup

2847

 10/31-11/02

53

40

13

 

57.1

41.4

15.8

ABC/WP

2446

 10/31-11/02

54

41

13

 

56.6

41.9

14.8

CBS

1005

 10/28-31

54

41

13

 

56.6

41.9

14.8

Pew

1325

 10/23-26

52

36

16

 

59.9

38.6

21.3

Total

7623

 10/23-11/02

53.3

39.5

13.8

 

57.6

40.9

16.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gallup+ABC

5293

 10/31-11/02

53.5

40.5

13

 

56.9

41.6

15.3

MoE= 1.96 * [ sqrt (.577 * .423) / 5293 ] = 1.8%

 

2pty

57.7

42.3

15.5

 

 

 

TABLE 7

2008 TRUE VOTE ANALYSIS

 

 

National

 

 

2008

True Vote Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout in 2008

      Unctd / stuffed

 

Cast

0

Unctd

Alive

Cast

Official

Unctd

Mortality

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Other

 

125.7

122.3

3.4

119.4

132.6

131.4

1.2

6.6

97%

97%

75%

25%

0%

 

-

97.3%

2.7%

95.0%

-

99.1%

0.9%

5.0%

-

-

0%

100%

 -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National

Vote (mil)

422 EV

Pct

Share (%)

 

Vote (mil)

 

 

MoE

2004

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

1.6%

DNV

 -

 -

 -

16.4

12.4

71.0

27.0

2.0

11.7

4.4

0.33

 

1.1%

Kerry

67.1

59.0

63.8

61.9

46.8

89.0

10.0

1.0

55.1

6.2

0.62

97%

1.3%

Bush

57.0

62.0

54.1

52.5

39.7

17.0

82.0

1.0

8.9

43.0

0.52

97%

1.6%

Other

0.0

1.2

1.6

1.5

1.1

72.0

17.0

11.0

1.1

0.3

0.17

97%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True

125.7

122.3

119.5

132.3

 

58.0

40.8

1.2

76.7

53.9

1.64

97%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Recorded

52.9

45.6

1.5

69.5

59.9

1.98

131.4

 

Recorded

48.3

50.7

1.0

Diff

 

5.1

-4.9

-0.3

7.3

-6.0

-0.34

 

 

Cast

49.4

49.6

1.0

Exit Poll

Na

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exit Poll

52.0

47.0

1.0

Diff

 

Na

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

 

Kerry voter turnout

 

 

Share of

Obama Share of DNV

 

turnout

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

 

Bush

69%

70%

71%

72%

73%

 

 

 

Obama Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Obama Share (%)

 

 

90%

58.9

59.1

59.3

59.5

59.6

 

19%

58.6

58.7

58.8

58.9

59.0

 

92%

58.5

58.7

58.8

59.0

59.2

 

18%

58.2

58.3

58.4

58.5

58.7

 

94%

58.1

58.2

58.4

58.6

58.8

 

17%

57.8

57.9

58.0

58.1

58.3

 

96%

57.6

57.8

58.0

58.1

58.3

 

16%

57.4

57.5

57.6

57.7

57.9

 

98%

57.2

57.4

57.5

57.7

57.9

 

15%

57.0

57.1

57.2

57.3

57.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

Obama Margin (mil.)

 

 

90%

25.4

25.8

26.3

26.7

27.2

 

19%

24.3

24.6

24.9

25.3

25.6

 

92%

24.2

24.6

25.1

25.5

26.0

 

18%

23.2

23.5

23.9

24.2

24.5

 

94%

23.0

23.5

23.9

24.4

24.8

 

17%

22.2

22.5

22.8

23.2

23.5

 

96%

21.8

22.3

22.7

23.2

23.6

 

16%

21.1

21.4

21.8

22.1

22.4

 

98%

20.7

21.1

21.6

22.0

22.5

 

15%

20.1

20.4

20.7

21.1

21.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama Electoral Vote

 

 

 

Obama Electoral Vote

 

90%

428

428

428

428

428

 

19%

428

428

428

428

428

 

92%

428

428

428

428

428

 

18%

422

422

422

422

422

 

94%

422

422

422

428

428

 

17%

408

422

422

422

422

 

96%

408

422

422

422

422

 

16%

397

408

408

408

419

 

98%

389

397

408

408

411

 

15%

374

374

389

408

408

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MoE

1.0%

0.9%

0.8%

0.7%

0.5%

 

MoE

1.6%

1.6%

1.6%

1.6%

1.5%