As discussed in my open letter to Nate Silver, his methodology for ranking pollsters is based on an invalid premise: that the recorded vote is an appropriate basis for measuring performance. Due to systemic election fraud, the recorded vote is not justified. The best measure is the True Vote, which is derived from total votes cast, rather than votes recorded. Using the Census value for total votes cast in the prior and current elections, we deduct four-year voter mortality and, combined with a best estimate turnout of living voters in the current election, we utilize National Exit Poll vote shares to calculate the True Vote.
Given the True Vote for the 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections, we can measure pollster performance in predicting the vote. Good pollsters such as John Zogby should not be penalized in the rankings because of election fraud. Conversely, biased pollsters such as Rasmussen should not have been rewarded in Silver’s rankings for predicting a fraudulent recorded vote.
Reputable election analysts who have crunched the numbers agree that the 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen and Democratic Landslides were denied in the 2006 midterms and the 2008 presidential election.
The following tables illustrate pollster performance for the four elections against both the True Vote and the recorded vote. The rankings are straightforward; they are based on the deviation between the final poll (adjusted for undecided voters) and the True and recorded votes.
The projections allocated 75% of undecided votes to the Democrats, who were the challengers in 2004, 2006 and 2008.
In 2000, Clinton was the incumbent who had high approval and a strong economic record, therefore a 50/50 split was assumed in the undecided vote.
In 2004, Bush had a 48% approval rating which declined to 25% in 2008. Obama was the de-facto challenger; McCain represented the incumbent.
Nate Silver ranks Zogby DEAD LAST. The historical
record proves that Silver is DEAD WRONG.
This is what Zogby had to
say just before Election Day 2004:
The key reason why I still
think that Kerry will win… traditionally, the undecideds break for the
challenger against the incumbent on the basis of the fact, simply, that the
voters already know the incumbent, and it's a referendum on the incumbent.
And if the incumbent is
polling, generally, under 50 percent and leading by less than 10, historically,
incumbents have lost 7 out of 10 times. In this instance you have a tie, a
President who is not going over 48, undecideds who tell us by small percentages
that the President deserves to be reelected. And in essence, it gives all the
appearances that the undecideds -- the most important people in the world today
-- have made up their minds about Presiddent Bush.
The only question left is: Can
they vote for John Kerry? If it's a good turnout, look for a Kerry victory. If
it's a lower turnout, it means that the President has succeeded in raising
questions about John Kerry's fitness.
There was a very heavy turnout of 22 million first-time voters and others who did not vote in 2000. In his Election Day polling, Zogby had Kerry winning by 50-47% with 311 electoral votes, indicating that 75% of undecided voters broke for Kerry. This was a virtual match to the 52-47% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate data later released in the Edison Mitofsky 2004 Evaluation Report.
In 2004, Zogby’s final polling in nine battleground states was
within 0.5% of the unadjusted exit poll average (after allocating undecided
voters).
Kerry led in 8 states by
50.2-44.8%. The base case assumption was that he would capture 75% of the
undecided (UVA) vote and win all 9 states by 53.7-45.9%. Assuming a
conservative 55% UVA scenario, he would still win 8 states by 52.7-46.8%.
Kerry officially won 4 of the 9 states by 50.1-49.4%. The margin of error
was exceeded in 7 states, a 1 in 4.7 billion probability.
|
2004
Battleground states |
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|
Poll |
Kerry |
Bush |
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Zogby |
50.2 |
44.8 |
Average |
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Projection |
53.7 |
45.9 |
75%
undecided to Kerry |
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Exit Poll |
53.2 |
45.8 |
Unadjusted |
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Zogby |
Poll |
|
Projection |
|
Exit
Poll |
|
Recorded
|
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|
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
|
CO |
47 |
48 |
50.3 |
49.1 |
50.1 |
48.6 |
47.4 |
52.1 |
|
FL |
50 |
47 |
51.9 |
47.6 |
50.9 |
48.3 |
47.3 |
52.3 |
|
IA |
50 |
44 |
54.2 |
45.4 |
50.7 |
48.4 |
49.5 |
50.1 |
|
ME |
50 |
39 |
57.6 |
41.5 |
55.5 |
42.7 |
54.1 |
45.1 |
|
MI |
52 |
45 |
53.9 |
45.6 |
54.4 |
44.7 |
51.5 |
48 |
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MN |
52 |
44 |
54.5 |
44.8 |
55.7 |
43 |
51.5 |
47.9 |
|
OH
|
50 |
47 |
52.3 |
47.7 |
54.2 |
45.4 |
48.9 |
51.1 |
|
PA |
50 |
45 |
53.8 |
46.3 |
55.3 |
44 |
51.3 |
48.7 |
|
WI |
51 |
44 |
54.3 |
45.1 |
52 |
47 |
49.9 |
49.6 |
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Total |
50.2 |
44.8 |
53.7 |
45.9 |
53.2 |
45.8 |
50.1 |
49.5 |
In
1996, Zogby was
within 0.3% of the recorded vote.
He
ranked # 1.
In 2000, Zogby
was within 0.1% of the recorded vote.
He
ranked #1
But there were 6 million uncounted votes.
Gore won by at least 3
million votes.
The
election was stolen.
In
2004, Zogby was within 1.2% of the recorded vote.
His Election Day polling had Kerry by 50-47%.
Kerry’s True Vote
was 53.2% - a 10 million margin.
The
election was stolen.
In
2006, Zogby ranked #7.
The pre-election
Generic Poll Trend Model forecast a 56.4% Democratic Landslide.
The landslide was denied.
In
2008, Zogby was
within 2.2% of the recorded vote.
He ranked # 4.
Obama had a 58% True Vote
share and won by 22 million votes.
The landslide was denied.
So
why is Zogby at the very bottom of Silver’s pollster rankings?
|
2000 |
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Gore |
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Recorded |
48.4 |
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50/
50% |
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Gore
projected |
|
|
Exit Poll |
49.4 |
|
Poll |
|
UVA
Projection |
|
Deviation
from |
|||
|
True |
50.4 |
|
Gore |
Bush |
Other |
Gore |
Bush |
Other |
Recorded |
True |
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Average |
|
45.7 |
47.3 |
4.3 |
47.1 |
48.7 |
4.3 |
-1.3 |
-3.3 |
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1 |
Zogby |
|
48 |
46 |
5 |
48.5 |
46.5 |
5 |
0.1 |
-1.9 |
|
2 |
CBS |
|
45 |
44 |
4 |
48.5 |
47.5 |
4 |
0.1 |
-1.9 |
|
3 |
Harris |
|
47 |
47 |
5 |
47.5 |
47.5 |
5 |
-0.9 |
-2.9 |
|
4 |
Pew Research |
47 |
49 |
4 |
47 |
49 |
4 |
-1.4 |
-3.4 |
|
|
5 |
Gallup/CNN |
|
46 |
48 |
4 |
47 |
49 |
4 |
-1.4 |
-3.4 |
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6 |
IBD/CSM/TIPP |
46 |
48 |
4 |
47 |
49 |
4 |
-1.4 |
-3.4 |
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7 |
ABC/WP |
|
45 |
48 |
3 |
47 |
50 |
3 |
-1.4 |
-3.4 |
|
8 |
NBC/WSJ |
|
44 |
47 |
3 |
47 |
50 |
3 |
-1.4 |
-3.4 |
|
9 |
Battleground |
|
45 |
50 |
4 |
45.5 |
50.5 |
4 |
-2.9 |
-4.9 |
|
10 |
ICR |
|
44 |
46 |
7 |
45.5 |
47.5 |
7 |
-2.9 |
-4.9 |
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2004 |
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Kerry |
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Recorded |
48.3 |
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|
75/
25% |
|
Kerry
projected |
|
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|
Exit Poll |
52.0 |
|
Poll |
|
UVA
Proj |
|
Deviation
from |
|
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|
|
True |
53.2 |
Date |
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
Recorded |
True |
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Average |
|
47.5 |
47.6 |
50.4 |
48.6 |
2.1 |
-2.8 |
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1 |
AP |
1020 |
49 |
46 |
52 |
47 |
3.7 |
-1.2 |
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2 |
Pew RV |
1030 |
46 |
45 |
52 |
47 |
3.7 |
-1.2 |
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3 |
FOX |
1031 |
48 |
46 |
51.8 |
47.3 |
3.5 |
-1.4 |
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4 |
Harris Online |
1102 |
50 |
47 |
51.5 |
47.5 |
3.2 |
-1.7 |
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5 |
EconYouGov |
1027 |
50 |
47 |
51.5 |
47.5 |
3.2 |
-1.7 |
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6 |
LAT |
1024 |
48 |
47 |
51 |
48 |
2.7 |
-2.2 |
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7 |
Dem Corp |
1031 |
48 |
47 |
51 |
48 |
2.7 |
-2.2 |
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8 |
Marist |
1031 |
48 |
47 |
51 |
48 |
2.7 |
-2.2 |
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9 |
ICR |
1026 |
44 |
46 |
50.8 |
48.3 |
2.5 |
-2.4 |
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10 |
ARG |
1030 |
48 |
48 |
50.3 |
48.8 |
2.0 |
-2.9 |
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11 |
NBC |
1031 |
47 |
48 |
50 |
49 |
1.7 |
-3.2 |
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12 |
TIPP |
1031 |
44 |
47 |
50 |
49 |
1.7 |
-3.2 |
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13 |
Gallup |
1031 |
49 |
49 |
49.8 |
49.3 |
1.5 |
-3.4 |
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14 |
ABC/WP |
1030 |
48 |
49 |
49.5 |
49.5 |
1.2 |
-3.7 |
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|
15 |
Newsweek |
1029 |
45 |
48 |
49.5 |
49.5 |
1.2 |
-3.7 |
|
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16 |
Zogby |
1102 |
49.1 |
49.4 |
49.5 |
49.5 |
1.2 |
-3.7 |
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17 |
CBS |
1031 |
47 |
49 |
49.3 |
49.8 |
1.0 |
-3.9 |
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18 |
Time |
1021 |
46 |
51 |
47.5 |
51.5 |
-0.8 |
-5.7 |
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Zogby |
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Election
Day |
1102 |
50 |
47 |
51.5 |
47.5 |
3.2 |
-1.7 |
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2006 |
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Democrats |
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Recorded |
52.0 |
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75/
25% |
|
Democratic
projected |
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||
|
Exit Poll |
56.4 |
Poll
|
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UVA
Proj |
|
Deviation
from |
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True |
56.4 |
Date |
Dem |
Rep |
Dem |
Rep |
Recorded |
True |
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Average |
|
51.4 |
38.3 |
57.6 |
40.4 |
5.6 |
1.2 |
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1 |
TIME |
1103 |
55 |
40 |
57.3 |
40.8 |
5.3 |
0.9 |
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2 |
Newsweek |
1103 |
54 |
38 |
58.5 |
39.5 |
6.5 |
2.1 |
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3 |
FOX. |
1106 |
49 |
36 |
58.8 |
39.3 |
6.8 |
2.4 |
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4 |
NBC |
1030 |
52 |
37 |
58.8 |
39.3 |
6.8 |
2.4 |
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5 |
CNN |
1106 |
58 |
38 |
59.5 |
38.5 |
7.5 |
3.1 |
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6 |
USA/ Gallup |
1106 |
51 |
44 |
53.3 |
44.8 |
1.3 |
-3.1 |
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7 |
Zogby |
1025 |
44 |
33 |
59.8 |
38.3 |
7.8 |
3.4 |
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8 |
Pew |
1104 |
47 |
43 |
53 |
45 |
1.0 |
-3.4 |
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9 |
ABC |
1104 |
51 |
45 |
52.5 |
45.5 |
0.5 |
-3.9 |
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10 |
Hotline |
1023 |
52 |
34 |
61 |
37 |
9.0 |
4.6 |
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11 |
CBS/NYT |
1101 |
52 |
33 |
61.8 |
36.3 |
9.8 |
5.4 |
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2008 |
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Obama |
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Recorded |
52.9 |
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|
75/
25% |
|
Obama
projected |
|
|
Exit Poll |
NA |
Poll
|
|
|
Poll |
|
UVA
Proj |
|
Deviation
from |
|
|
True |
57.9 |
Date |
Sample |
MoE |
Obama |
McCain
|
Obama |
McCain
|
Recorded |
True |
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Average |
|
|
2.87% |
51.1 |
43.1 |
54.3 |
44.2 |
1.4 |
-3.6 |
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1 |
Gallup RV |
2-Nov |
2847 |
1.84% |
53 |
40 |
57.1 |
41.4 |
4.2 |
-0.8 |
|
2 |
ABC/WP RV |
2-Nov |
2446 |
1.98% |
54 |
41 |
56.6 |
41.9 |
3.7 |
-1.3 |
|
3 |
CBS |
31-Oct |
1005 |
3.09% |
54 |
41 |
56.6 |
41.9 |
3.7 |
-1.3 |
|
4 |
Zogby |
3-Nov |
1201 |
2.83% |
54 |
43 |
55.1 |
43.4 |
2.2 |
-2.8 |
|
5 |
Marist |
3-Nov |
804 |
3.46% |
52 |
43 |
54.6 |
43.9 |
1.7 |
-3.3 |
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6 |
Pew |
1-Nov |
2587 |
1.93% |
49 |
42 |
54.6 |
43.9 |
1.7 |
-3.3 |
|
7 |
NBC/WSJ |
2-Nov |
1011 |
3.08% |
51 |
43 |
54.4 |
44.1 |
1.5 |
-3.5 |
|
8 |
CNN |
1-Nov |
1017 |
3.07% |
51 |
43 |
54.4 |
44.1 |
1.5 |
-3.5 |
|
9 |
FOX News |
3-Nov |
971 |
3.14% |
50 |
43 |
54.1 |
44.4 |
1.2 |
-3.8 |
|
10 |
Marist |
29-Oct |
543 |
4.21% |
50 |
43 |
54.1 |
44.4 |
1.2 |
-3.8 |
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|
11 |
Research2k |
2-Nov |
1100 |
2.95% |
51 |
44 |
53.6 |
44.9 |
0.7 |
-4.3 |
|
12 |
Hotline/FD |
2-Nov |
882 |
3.30% |
50 |
45 |
52.6 |
45.9 |
-0.3 |
-5.3 |
|
13 |
FOX News |
29-Oct |
924 |
3.22% |
47 |
44 |
52.6 |
45.9 |
-0.3 |
-5.3 |
|
14 |
Battleground |
30-Oct |
1000 |
3.10% |
49 |
45 |
52.4 |
46.1 |
-0.5 |
-5.5 |
|
15 |
Rasmussen |
2-Nov |
3000 |
1.79% |
51 |
46 |
52.1 |
46.4 |
-0.8 |
-5.8 |
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