John Zogby vs. Nate Silver: 1996-2008 True and Recorded Vote Rankings

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

Updated: July 24, 2010

 

As discussed in my open letter  to Nate Silver, his methodology for ranking pollsters is based on an invalid premise: that the recorded vote is an appropriate basis for measuring performance. Due to systemic election fraud, the recorded vote is not justified. The best measure is the True Vote, which is derived from total votes cast, rather than votes recorded. Using the Census value for total votes cast in the prior and current elections, we deduct four-year voter mortality and, combined with a best estimate turnout of living voters in the current election, we utilize National Exit Poll vote shares to calculate the True Vote.

 

Given the True Vote for the 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections, we can measure pollster performance in predicting the vote. Good pollsters such as John Zogby should not be penalized in the rankings because of election fraud. Conversely, biased pollsters such as Rasmussen should not have been rewarded in Silver’s rankings for predicting a fraudulent recorded vote.

 

Reputable election analysts who have crunched the numbers agree that the 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen and Democratic Landslides were denied in the 2006 midterms and the 2008 presidential election.

 

The following tables illustrate pollster performance for the four elections against both the True Vote and the recorded vote. The rankings are straightforward; they are based on the deviation between the final poll (adjusted for undecided voters) and the True and recorded votes.

 

The projections allocated 75% of undecided votes to the Democrats, who were the challengers in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

In 2000, Clinton was the incumbent who had high approval and a strong economic record, therefore a 50/50 split was assumed in the undecided vote.

In 2004, Bush had a 48% approval rating which declined to 25% in 2008. Obama was the de-facto challenger; McCain represented the incumbent.

 

Nate Silver ranks Zogby DEAD LAST. The historical record proves that Silver is DEAD WRONG.

 

This is what Zogby had to say just before Election Day 2004:

The key reason why I still think that Kerry will win… traditionally, the undecideds break for the challenger against the incumbent on the basis of the fact, simply, that the voters already know the incumbent, and it's a referendum on the incumbent.

 

And if the incumbent is polling, generally, under 50 percent and leading by less than 10, historically, incumbents have lost 7 out of 10 times. In this instance you have a tie, a President who is not going over 48, undecideds who tell us by small percentages that the President deserves to be reelected. And in essence, it gives all the appearances that the undecideds -- the most important people in the world today -- have made up their minds about Presiddent Bush.

 

The only question left is: Can they vote for John Kerry? If it's a good turnout, look for a Kerry victory. If it's a lower turnout, it means that the President has succeeded in raising questions about John Kerry's fitness.

 

There was a very heavy turnout of 22 million first-time voters and others who did not vote in 2000. In his Election Day polling, Zogby had Kerry winning by 50-47% with 311 electoral votes, indicating that 75% of undecided voters broke for Kerry. This was a virtual match to the 52-47% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate data later released in the Edison Mitofsky 2004 Evaluation Report.

 

In 2004, Zogby’s final polling in nine battleground states was within 0.5% of the unadjusted exit poll average (after allocating undecided voters).

Kerry led in 8 states by 50.2-44.8%. The base case assumption was that he would capture 75% of the undecided (UVA) vote and win all 9 states by 53.7-45.9%.  Assuming a conservative 55% UVA scenario, he would still win 8 states by 52.7-46.8%.  Kerry officially won 4 of the 9 states by 50.1-49.4%. The margin of error was exceeded in 7 states, a 1 in 4.7 billion probability.

 

2004 Battleground states

 

 

 

 

 

 

Poll      

Kerry

Bush

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zogby   

50.2

44.8

Average

 

 

 

 

 

Projection

53.7

45.9

75% undecided to Kerry

 

 

 

Exit Poll

53.2

45.8

Unadjusted

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zogby

Poll

 

Projection

 

Exit Poll

 

Recorded

 

 

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

CO   

47

48

50.3

49.1

50.1

48.6

47.4

52.1

FL   

50

47

51.9

47.6

50.9

48.3

47.3

52.3

IA   

50

44

54.2

45.4

50.7

48.4

49.5

50.1

ME   

50

39

57.6

41.5

55.5

42.7

54.1

45.1

MI   

52

45

53.9

45.6

54.4

44.7

51.5

48

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MN   

52

44

54.5

44.8

55.7

43

51.5

47.9

OH   

50

47

52.3

47.7

54.2

45.4

48.9

51.1

PA   

50

45

53.8

46.3

55.3

44

51.3

48.7

WI   

51

44

54.3

45.1

52

47

49.9

49.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

50.2

44.8

53.7

45.9

53.2

45.8

50.1

49.5

 

 

In 1996, Zogby was within 0.3% of the recorded vote.

He ranked # 1.

 

In 2000, Zogby was within 0.1% of the recorded vote.

He ranked #1

But there were 6 million uncounted votes.

Gore won by at least 3 million votes.

The election was stolen.

 

In 2004, Zogby was within 1.2% of the recorded vote.

His Election Day polling had Kerry by 50-47%.

Kerry’s True Vote was 53.2% - a 10 million margin.

The election was stolen.

 

In 2006, Zogby ranked #7.

The pre-election Generic Poll Trend Model forecast a 56.4% Democratic Landslide.

The unadjusted National Exit Poll had 56.4%.

The landslide was denied.

 

In 2008, Zogby was within 2.2% of the recorded vote.

He ranked # 4.

Obama had a 58% True Vote share and won by 22 million votes.

The landslide was denied.

 

So why is Zogby at the very bottom of Silver’s pollster rankings?

 

2000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gore

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

48.4

 

 

 

 

50/ 50%

 

 

Gore projected

Exit Poll

49.4

 

Poll

 

UVA Projection

 

Deviation from

True

50.4

 

Gore

Bush

Other

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

True

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average

 

45.7

47.3

4.3

47.1

48.7

4.3

-1.3

-3.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 Zogby

 

48

46

5

48.5

46.5

5

0.1

-1.9

2

 CBS

 

45

44

4

48.5

47.5

4

0.1

-1.9

3

 Harris

 

47

47

5

47.5

47.5

5

-0.9

-2.9

4

 Pew Research

47

49

4

47

49

4

-1.4

-3.4

5

 Gallup/CNN

 

46

48

4

47

49

4

-1.4

-3.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

 IBD/CSM/TIPP

46

48

4

47

49

4

-1.4

-3.4

7

 ABC/WP

 

45

48

3

47

50

3

-1.4

-3.4

8

 NBC/WSJ

 

44

47

3

47

50

3

-1.4

-3.4

9

 Battleground

 

45

50

4

45.5

50.5

4

-2.9

-4.9

10

 ICR

 

44

46

7

45.5

47.5

7

-2.9

-4.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

48.3

 

 

 

75/ 25%

 

Kerry projected

 

 

Exit Poll

52.0

 

Poll

 

UVA Proj

 

Deviation from

 

 

True

53.2

Date

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Recorded

True

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average

 

47.5

47.6

50.4

48.6

2.1

-2.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 AP

1020

49

46

52

47

3.7

-1.2

 

 

2

 Pew RV

1030

46

45

52

47

3.7

-1.2

 

 

3

 FOX

1031

48

46

51.8

47.3

3.5

-1.4

 

 

4

 Harris Online

1102

50

47

51.5

47.5

3.2

-1.7

 

 

5

 EconYouGov

1027

50

47

51.5

47.5

3.2

-1.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

 LAT

1024

48

47

51

48

2.7

-2.2

 

 

7

 Dem Corp

1031

48

47

51

48

2.7

-2.2

 

 

8

 Marist

1031

48

47

51

48

2.7

-2.2

 

 

9

 ICR

1026

44

46

50.8

48.3

2.5

-2.4

 

 

10

 ARG

1030

48

48

50.3

48.8

2.0

-2.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11

 NBC

1031

47

48

50

49

1.7

-3.2

 

 

12

 TIPP

1031

44

47

50

49

1.7

-3.2

 

 

13

 Gallup

1031

49

49

49.8

49.3

1.5

-3.4

 

 

14

 ABC/WP

1030

48

49

49.5

49.5

1.2

-3.7

 

 

15

 Newsweek

1029

45

48

49.5

49.5

1.2

-3.7

 

 

16

 Zogby

1102

49.1

49.4

49.5

49.5

1.2

-3.7

 

 

17

 CBS

1031

47

49

49.3

49.8

1.0

-3.9

 

 

18

 Time

1021

46

51

47.5

51.5

-0.8

-5.7

 

 

 

Zogby

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Election Day  

1102

50

47

51.5

47.5

3.2

-1.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrats

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

52.0

 

 

 

75/ 25%

 

Democratic projected

 

Exit Poll

56.4

Poll

 

 

UVA Proj

 

Deviation from

 

 

True

56.4

Date

Dem

Rep

Dem

Rep

Recorded

True

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average

 

51.4

38.3

57.6

40.4

5.6

1.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 TIME

1103

55

40

57.3

40.8

5.3

0.9

 

 

2

 Newsweek

1103

54

38

58.5

39.5

6.5

2.1

 

 

3

 FOX.

1106

49

36

58.8

39.3

6.8

2.4

 

 

4

 NBC

1030

52

37

58.8

39.3

6.8

2.4

 

 

5

 CNN

1106

58

38

59.5

38.5

7.5

3.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

 USA/ Gallup

1106

51

44

53.3

44.8

1.3

-3.1

 

 

7

 Zogby

1025

44

33

59.8

38.3

7.8

3.4

 

 

8

 Pew

1104

47

43

53

45

1.0

-3.4

 

 

9

 ABC

1104

51

45

52.5

45.5

0.5

-3.9

 

 

10

 Hotline

1023

52

34

61

37

9.0

4.6

 

 

11

 CBS/NYT

1101

52

33

61.8

36.3

9.8

5.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

52.9

 

 

 

 

 

75/ 25%

 

Obama projected

Exit Poll

NA

Poll

 

 

Poll

 

UVA Proj

 

Deviation from

True

57.9

Date

Sample

MoE

Obama

McCain

Obama

McCain

Recorded

True

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average

 

 

2.87%

51.1

43.1

54.3

44.2

1.4

-3.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 Gallup RV

2-Nov

2847

1.84%

53

40

57.1

41.4

4.2

-0.8

2

 ABC/WP RV

2-Nov

2446

1.98%

54

41

56.6

41.9

3.7

-1.3

3

 CBS

31-Oct

1005

3.09%

54

41

56.6

41.9

3.7

-1.3

4

 Zogby

3-Nov

1201

2.83%

54

43

55.1

43.4

2.2

-2.8

5

 Marist

3-Nov

804

3.46%

52

43

54.6

43.9

1.7

-3.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

 Pew

1-Nov

2587

1.93%

49

42

54.6

43.9

1.7

-3.3

7

 NBC/WSJ

2-Nov

1011

3.08%

51

43

54.4

44.1

1.5

-3.5

8

 CNN

1-Nov

1017

3.07%

51

43

54.4

44.1

1.5

-3.5

9

 FOX News

3-Nov

971

3.14%

50

43

54.1

44.4

1.2

-3.8

10

 Marist

29-Oct

543

4.21%

50

43

54.1

44.4

1.2

-3.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11

 Research2k

2-Nov

1100

2.95%

51

44

53.6

44.9

0.7

-4.3

12

 Hotline/FD

2-Nov

882

3.30%

50

45

52.6

45.9

-0.3

-5.3

13

 FOX News

29-Oct

924

3.22%

47

44

52.6

45.9

-0.3

-5.3

14

 Battleground

30-Oct

1000

3.10%

49

45

52.4

46.1

-0.5

-5.5

15

 Rasmussen

2-Nov

3000

1.79%

51

46

52.1

46.4

-0.8

-5.8