The Truth about Elections:  Not “Fit to Print”

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

Sept. 30, 2010

 

The NY Times and/or Nate Silver decided that my reply to Silver’s blog was news that was not fit to print. They deleted it 15 minutes after it was posted in response to:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/30/the-uncanny-accuracy-of-polling-averages-part-2-what-the-numbers-say/#preview

 

This was my post:

 

Nate,

 

You gauge polling accuracy by comparing the average results to the recorded vote. You should at some point acknowledge that final LV poll projections have been accurate in matching fraudulent vote shares and that the recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote due to systemic Election Fraud. 

 

In fact, final RV poll projections (adjusted for allocation of undecided voters) have closely matched the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls that exposed the fraudulent 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections. In each election, the Final National Exit Poll (which is always FORCED to match the recorded vote) required more returning Bush voters from the prior election than were alive in 2004 and 2008.

 

But you never mention the F-word. The fraud component is included in my 2010 Midterms House and Senate Forecast Model:

http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm

 

For the record, my 2004 Pre-Election Model Monte Carlo simulation gave Kerry 52% and 337 electoral votes, matching the 114,000 sample aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls. The Final 2004 National Exit Poll required 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were living in 2004. 

 

Proof:

Bush had 50.45 million votes in 2000; the Final 2004 NEP indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush voters. Given 1.25% annual voter mortality and assuming 97% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters, there could have been no more than 46 million returning Bush voters. So we have over six million Bush phantoms. 

 

Kerry won the 2004 True Vote by nearly 10 million. Yet Rasmussen had a high ranking from you a few years ago based on the close match of his LV poll to the bogus recorded vote.

 

In 2008, the Election Model predicted 53.1% for Obama (he had 52.9% recorded) and exactly matched his 365 EV. But it was wrong. The post-election True Vote model (based on the Final 2008 National Exit poll with a feasible returning voter mix) indicated that he had 57-58% and nearly 420 EV. 

 

Proof:

The Final 2008 NEP required an impossible 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters to match the recorded vote. Bush won the bogus 2004 recorded vote by 3 million. He had 22% approval on Election Day 2008. So where did all those millions of phantom Bush voters come from? Based on the True 2004 vote, there were 10 million MORE returning Kerry voters than Bush voters.

 

View the full proof here: http://richardcharnin.com/ObamaProof.htm

 

Richard Charnin