A
Simple Proof
All truth
passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently
opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
Arthur Schopenhauer
In 2000, according to the Census, 110.8m votes were cast and 105.4m recorded (5.4m net uncounted votes). Gore won by 51.0-50.46m (540,000 votes).
In 2004, 125.7m votes were cast and 122.3m recorded (3.4m net uncounted). Bush won the recorded vote by 62.0-59.0m
Of the 105.4 million who voted in 2000, approximately 5.4m died prior to 2004. Assuming 98% (98m) returned to vote in 2004, there were approximately 24.3m new (DNV) voters (122.3-98). Assuming an equal 98% turnout of returning Gore and Bush voters, there were 47.3m returning Gore; 46.8m returning Bush; 4.0m third-party.
In the National Exit Poll, 3168 respondents were asked how
they voted in 2000. Kerry had 57-62% of new voters (14.5-9.5m) during the
Kerry led Bush in returning third-party voters by 64-17% (2.6-0.7m). Therefore, Kerry led new and returning third-party voters by 6.9m (17.1-10.2m).
Now let’s consider returning Gore and Bush voters.
To match the 62-59m recorded vote, Bush needed 51.8m
(62-10.2) of 94m returning Bush and Gore voters. Kerry would then have 41.9m
(59-17.1). Bush needed 10m more returning Gore and Bush voters than Kerry.
Therefore, 5m (10.7% of 46.7m) more Gore than Bush voters had to defect. To just tie Kerry, Bush needed a 6.9
million margin among returning Gore and Bush voters. But according to the NEP,
10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry and 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush, a
net 2% defection to Kerry. That’s a 12.7% discrepancy from Bush's required
10.7% net defection rate. The margin of error for a 3168 sample poll with a
90-10% vote split is 1.0%.
Let's look at the pre-election
polls. Bush led the final
Kerry won the unadjusted state
exit poll aggregate by 52-47%. The margin of error was close to 1%.
So how did Bush do it? Was it the vaunted Rove turnout of 4 million Christian Fundamentalists? No, Kerry won new voters by 5 million.
Did returning Bush 2000 voters turnout at a higher rate
than Gore voters?
Let’s consider a Bush/Gore 98/ 90% turnout
scenario.
Reducing Gore voter turnout by 8% (4m) means there had to be 4 million additional new voters (total 28m DNV) and 90m returning Gore and Bush voters. Since Kerry won the additional new voters by 2.4-1.6m, Bush now must overcome Kerry’s 19.5-11.8m lead among new and returning third-party voters. Bush needs 50 of 90m returning Gore and Bush voters to get his 62 million; therefore, he needs 5m (11% of 45m) more Gore defectors than Bush defectors.
So how did Bush do it? Was it the uncounted votes?
Approximately 4 of 5.4 million were for Gore. Therefore there were 3 million more returning Gore than Bush voters (2.5m more than calculated above). In addition, Kerry had close to 2.5m of the 2004 net uncounted 3.45m. Including 6.5m uncounted Democratic votes in 2000 and 2004 makes it impossible for Bush.
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National |
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True
Vote Analysis |
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2000 |
National |
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2004 |
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Turnout in 2004 |
Unctd /
stuffed |
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Cast |
Official |
Unctd |
Alive |
Cast |
Recorded |
Unctd |
Mortal |
Gore |
Bush |
Gore |
Bush |
Other |
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110.8 |
105.4 |
5.4 |
105.3 |
125.7 |
122.3 |
3.4 |
6.1 |
98% |
98% |
75% |
24% |
1% |
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- |
95.1% |
4.9% |
95.0% |
- |
97.3% |
2.7% |
5.0% |
- |
- |
0% |
100% |
- |
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Vote (mil) |
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Pct |
Share (%) |
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Vote (mil) |
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MoE |
2000 |
Cast |
Recorded |
Alive |
Turnout |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
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1.7 |
DNV |
- |
- |
- |
22.6 |
17.9 |
57.0 |
41.0 |
2.0 |
12.86 |
9.25 |
0.45 |
22.56 |
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1.0 |
Gore |
55.3 |
51.0 |
52.6 |
51.5 |
41.0 |
91.0 |
8.0 |
1.0 |
46.88 |
4.12 |
0.51 |
51.51 |
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1.0 |
Bush |
51.5 |
50.5 |
48.9 |
47.9 |
38.1 |
10.0 |
90.0 |
0.0 |
4.79 |
43.14 |
0.00 |
47.93 |
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1.7 |
Other |
4.0 |
4.0 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.0 |
64.0 |
17.1 |
18.9 |
2.39 |
0.64 |
0.71 |
3.73 |
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1.7 |
True |
110.8 |
105.4 |
105.3 |
125.7 |
379EV |
53.2 |
45.5 |
1.3 |
66.9 |
57.1 |
1.7 |
125.7 |
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2000 |
Bush |
Gore |
Other |
Recorded |
48.3 |
50.7 |
1.0 |
59.03 |
62.04 |
1.22 |
122.29 |
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Recorded |
47.9 |
48.4 |
3.8 |
Diff |
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5.0 |
-5.3 |
0.3 |
7.89 |
-4.89 |
0.45 |
3.44 |
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ExitP |
46.9 |
49.4 |
3.8 |
Exit Poll |
51.9 |
47.1 |
1.0 |
63.49 |
57.58 |
1.23 |
122.29 |
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Cast |
46.5 |
49.9 |
3.6 |
Diff |
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1.3 |
-1.6 |
0.3 |
3.43 |
-0.43 |
0.45 |
3.44 |
Kerry vote share and margin
1) Bush/Gore 2000 voter turnout in 2004
Worst-case scenario:
90% Gore/ 98% Bush turnout.
Kerry has a 52.1% share and wins by 7.0m with 346 EV.
2) Share of returning Bush and New (DNV) voters
Worst-case scenario: Kerry has 55% of DNV and 8% of
returning Bush voters.
Kerry has a 52.1% share and a 6.9m winning margin with
346 EV.
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2004 |
National |
1 |
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2004 |
National |
2 |
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Bush |
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Gore voter turnout |
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Share of |
Kerry Share of DNV |
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turnout |
90% |
92% |
94% |
96% |
98% |
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Bush |
55% |
56% |
57% |
58% |
59% |
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Kerry Share (%) |
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Kerry Share (%) |
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90% |
53.5 |
53.8 |
54.1 |
54.4 |
54.7 |
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12% |
53.6 |
53.8 |
54.0 |
54.2 |
54.3 |
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92% |
53.2 |
53.5 |
53.7 |
54.0 |
54.3 |
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11% |
53.2 |
53.4 |
53.6 |
53.8 |
54.0 |
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94% |
52.8 |
53.1 |
53.4 |
53.7 |
53.9 |
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10% |
52.9 |
53.0 |
53.2 |
53.4 |
53.6 |
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96% |
52.4 |
52.7 |
53.0 |
53.3 |
53.6 |
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9% |
52.5 |
52.7 |
52.8 |
53.0 |
53.2 |
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98% |
52.1 |
52.4 |
52.7 |
52.9 |
53.2 |
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8% |
52.1 |
52.3 |
52.5 |
52.6 |
52.8 |
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Kerry Margin (mil.) |
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Kerry Margin (mil.) |
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90% |
10.6 |
11.3 |
12.0 |
12.7 |
13.4 |
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12% |
10.8 |
11.2 |
11.7 |
12.1 |
12.6 |
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92% |
9.7 |
10.4 |
11.1 |
11.8 |
12.5 |
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11% |
9.8 |
10.3 |
10.7 |
11.2 |
11.6 |
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94% |
8.8 |
9.5 |
10.2 |
10.9 |
11.6 |
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10% |
8.9 |
9.3 |
9.8 |
10.2 |
10.7 |
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96% |
7.9 |
8.6 |
9.3 |
10.0 |
10.7 |
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9% |
7.9 |
8.4 |
8.8 |
9.3 |
9.7 |
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98% |
7.0 |
7.7 |
8.4 |
9.1 |
9.8 |
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8% |
6.9 |
7.4 |
7.9 |
8.3 |
8.8 |
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Kerry Electoral Vote |
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Kerry Electoral Vote |
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90% |
390 |
390 |
390 |
398 |
398 |
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12% |
390 |
390 |
390 |
390 |
398 |
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92% |
379 |
390 |
390 |
390 |
398 |
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11% |
390 |
390 |
390 |
390 |
390 |
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94% |
351 |
379 |
390 |
390 |
390 |
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10% |
360 |
373 |
379 |
390 |
390 |
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96% |
351 |
351 |
370 |
390 |
390 |
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9% |
351 |
351 |
351 |
357 |
379 |
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98% |
346 |
351 |
351 |
351 |
379 |
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8% |
346 |
351 |
351 |
351 |
351 |
3) Share of returning Gore and new (DNV) voters.
Worst-case scenario: Kerry has 55% of DNV and 89% of
returning Gore voters.
Kerry has a 52.0% share and a 6.8m winning margin with
346 EV.
4) Gore share of uncounted votes returning Gore voter
turnout in 2004.
Returning Bush voter turnout is assumed to be 98% in all
scenarios.
Worst-case scenario: Gore had 50% of uncounted votes and 90% of Gore voters turned out in 2004.
Kerry has a 51.2% share and a 4.8m winning margin with 325
EV.
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2004 |
National |
3 |
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2004 |
National |
4 |
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Share of |
Kerry Share of Gore |
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Gore |
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Gore share of uncounted |
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DNV |
89% |
90% |
91% |
92% |
93% |
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turnout |
50% |
60% |
67% |
75% |
80% |
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Kerry Share (%) |
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Kerry share % |
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59% |
52.8 |
53.2 |
53.6 |
54.0 |
54.4 |
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98% |
52.4 |
52.7 |
52.9 |
53.2 |
53.4 |
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58% |
52.6 |
53.0 |
53.4 |
53.8 |
54.2 |
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96% |
52.1 |
52.4 |
52.7 |
52.9 |
53.1 |
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57% |
52.4 |
52.8 |
53.2 |
53.6 |
54.0 |
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94% |
51.8 |
52.1 |
52.4 |
52.7 |
52.8 |
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56% |
52.2 |
52.6 |
53.0 |
53.5 |
53.9 |
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92% |
51.5 |
51.9 |
52.1 |
52.4 |
52.5 |
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55% |
52.0 |
52.5 |
52.9 |
53.3 |
53.7 |
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90% |
51.2 |
51.6 |
51.8 |
52.1 |
52.3 |
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Kerry Margin (mil.) |
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Kerry margin (mil.) |
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59% |
8.6 |
9.6 |
10.7 |
11.7 |
12.7 |
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98% |
7.6 |
8.5 |
9.1 |
9.8 |
10.2 |
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58% |
8.2 |
9.2 |
10.2 |
11.3 |
12.3 |
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96% |
6.9 |
7.8 |
8.4 |
9.1 |
9.5 |
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57% |
7.7 |
8.7 |
9.8 |
10.8 |
11.8 |
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94% |
6.2 |
7.1 |
7.7 |
8.4 |
8.8 |
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56% |
7.3 |
8.3 |
9.3 |
10.3 |
11.4 |
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92% |
5.5 |
6.4 |
7.0 |
7.7 |
8.1 |
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55% |
6.8 |
7.8 |
8.9 |
9.9 |
10.9 |
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90% |
4.8 |
5.7 |
6.3 |
7.0 |
7.4 |
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Kerry Electoral Vote |
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Kerry Electoral Vote |
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59% |
351 |
370 |
390 |
390 |
398 |
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98% |
346 |
352 |
357 |
379 |
390 |
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58% |
351 |
357 |
390 |
390 |
398 |
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96% |
346 |
346 |
351 |
351 |
373 |
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57% |
351 |
351 |
379 |
390 |
390 |
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94% |
346 |
346 |
346 |
351 |
360 |
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56% |
346 |
351 |
373 |
390 |
390 |
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92% |
335 |
346 |
346 |
351 |
351 |
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55% |
346 |
351 |
360 |
390 |
390 |
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90% |
325 |
346 |
346 |
346 |
351 |
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MoE |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
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MoE |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.4 |