A Simple Proof

 

TruthIsAll

 

 

All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.

Arthur Schopenhauer

 

In 2000, according to the Census, 110.8m votes were cast and 105.4m recorded (5.4m net uncounted votes). Gore won by 51.0-50.46m (540,000 votes).

In 2004, 125.7m votes were cast and 122.3m recorded (3.4m net uncounted). Bush won the recorded vote by 62.0-59.0m

 

Of the 105.4 million who voted in 2000, approximately 5.4m died prior to 2004. Assuming 98% (98m) returned to vote in 2004, there were approximately 24.3m new (DNV) voters (122.3-98). Assuming an equal 98% turnout of returning Gore and Bush voters, there were 47.3m returning Gore; 46.8m returning Bush; 4.0m third-party.

 

In the National Exit Poll, 3168 respondents were asked how they voted in 2000. Kerry had 57-62% of new voters (14.5-9.5m) during the 4pm-1222am timeline.

Kerry led Bush in returning third-party voters by 64-17% (2.6-0.7m). Therefore, Kerry led new and returning third-party voters by 6.9m (17.1-10.2m).

 

Now letís consider returning Gore and Bush voters.

 

To match the 62-59m recorded vote, Bush needed 51.8m (62-10.2) of 94m returning Bush and Gore voters. Kerry would then have 41.9m (59-17.1). Bush needed 10m more returning Gore and Bush voters than Kerry. Therefore, 5m (10.7% of 46.7m) more Gore than Bush voters had to defect.To just tie Kerry, Bush needed a 6.9 million margin among returning Gore and Bush voters. But according to the NEP, 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry and 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush, a net 2% defection to Kerry. Thatís a 12.7% discrepancy from Bush's required 10.7% net defection rate. The margin of error for a 3168 sample poll with a 90-10% vote split is 1.0%.

Let's look at the pre-election polls. Bush led the final LV 9-poll average (i.e. returning voters) by 48-47%. With 75% of the undecided vote, Kerry was projected to win LVs by 50-49%, an 11.5% discrepancy from Bushís required 10.5% net defection rate. The margin of error for the 9-poll average was 2.0%.

 

Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-47%. The margin of error was close to 1%.

 

So how did Bush do it? Was it the vaunted Rove turnout of 4 million Christian Fundamentalists? No, Kerry won new voters by 5 million.

 

Did returning Bush 2000 voters turnout at a higher rate than Gore voters?

Letís consider a Bush/Gore 98/ 90% turnout scenario.

 

Reducing Gore voter turnout by 8% (4m) means there had to be 4 million additional new voters (total 28m DNV) and 90m returning Gore and Bush voters. Since Kerry won the additional new voters by 2.4-1.6m, Bush now must overcome Kerryís 19.5-11.8m lead among new and returning third-party voters. Bush needs 50 of 90m returning Gore and Bush voters to get his 62 million; therefore, he needs 5m (11% of 45m) more Gore defectors than Bush defectors.

 

So how did Bush do it? Was it the uncounted votes?

Approximately 4 of 5.4 million were for Gore. Therefore there were 3 million more returning Gore than Bush voters (2.5m more than calculated above). In addition, Kerry had close to 2.5m of the 2004 net uncounted 3.45m.Including 6.5m uncounted Democratic votes in 2000 and 2004 makes it impossible for Bush.

 

 

National

 

 

 

True Vote Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

2000

National

 

2004

 

 

 

Turnout in 2004

††††† Unctd / stuffed

 

Cast

Official

Unctd

Alive

Cast

Recorded

Unctd

Mortal

Gore

Bush

Gore

Bush

Other

 

110.8

105.4

5.4

105.3

125.7

122.3

3.4

6.1

98%

98%

75%

24%

1%

 

-

95.1%

4.9%

95.0%

-

97.3%

2.7%

5.0%

-

-

0%

100%

-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote (mil)

 

 

Pct

Share (%)

 

Vote (mil)

 

 

MoE

2000

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Total

1.7

DNV

-

-

-

22.6

17.9

57.0

41.0

2.0

12.86

9.25

0.45

22.56

1.0

Gore

55.3

51.0

52.6

51.5

41.0

91.0

8.0

1.0

46.88

4.12

0.51

51.51

1.0

Bush

51.5

50.5

48.9

47.9

38.1

10.0

90.0

0.0

4.79

43.14

0.00

47.93

1.7

Other

4.0

4.0

3.8

3.7

3.0

64.0

17.1

18.9

2.39

0.64

0.71

3.73

 

1.7

True

110.8

105.4

105.3

125.7

379EV

53.2

45.5

1.3

66.9

57.1

1.7

125.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

Bush

Gore

Other

Recorded

48.3

50.7

1.0

59.03

62.04

1.22

122.29

 

Recorded

47.9

48.4

3.8

Diff

 

5.0

-5.3

0.3

7.89

-4.89

0.45

3.44

 

ExitP

46.9

49.4

3.8

Exit Poll

51.9

47.1

1.0

63.49

57.58

1.23

122.29

 

Cast

46.5

49.9

3.6

Diff

 

1.3

-1.6

0.3

3.43

-0.43

0.45

3.44

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

Kerry vote share and margin

 

1) Bush/Gore 2000 voter turnout in 2004

Worst-case scenario:90% Gore/ 98% Bush turnout.

Kerry has a 52.1% share and wins by 7.0m with 346 EV.

 

2) Share of returning Bush and New (DNV) voters

Worst-case scenario: Kerry has 55% of DNV and 8% of returning Bush voters.

Kerry has a 52.1% share and a 6.9m winning margin with 346 EV.

 

2004

National

1

 

 

 

2004

National

2

 

 

Bush

 

Gore voter turnout

 

 

Share of

Kerry Share of DNV

 

turnout

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

 

Bush

55%

56%

57%

58%

59%

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

90%

53.5

53.8

54.1

54.4

54.7

 

12%

53.6

53.8

54.0

54.2

54.3

92%

53.2

53.5

53.7

54.0

54.3

 

11%

53.2

53.4

53.6

53.8

54.0

94%

52.8

53.1

53.4

53.7

53.9

 

10%

52.9

53.0

53.2

53.4

53.6

96%

52.4

52.7

53.0

53.3

53.6

 

9%

52.5

52.7

52.8

53.0

53.2

98%

52.1

52.4

52.7

52.9

53.2

 

8%

52.1

52.3

52.5

52.6

52.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

90%

10.6

11.3

12.0

12.7

13.4

 

12%

10.8

11.2

11.7

12.1

12.6

92%

9.7

10.4

11.1

11.8

12.5

 

11%

9.8

10.3

10.7

11.2

11.6

94%

8.8

9.5

10.2

10.9

11.6

 

10%

8.9

9.3

9.8

10.2

10.7

96%

7.9

8.6

9.3

10.0

10.7

 

9%

7.9

8.4

8.8

9.3

9.7

98%

7.0

7.7

8.4

9.1

9.8

 

8%

6.9

7.4

7.9

8.3

8.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Electoral Vote

 

 

 

 

Kerry Electoral Vote

 

90%

390

390

390

398

398

 

12%

390

390

390

390

398

92%

379

390

390

390

398

 

11%

390

390

390

390

390

94%

351

379

390

390

390

 

10%

360

373

379

390

390

96%

351

351

370

390

390

 

9%

351

351

351

357

379

98%

346

351

351

351

379

 

8%

346

351

351

351

351

 


3) Share of returning Gore and new (DNV) voters.

Worst-case scenario: Kerry has 55% of DNV and 89% of returning Gore voters.

Kerry has a 52.0% share and a 6.8m winning margin with 346 EV.

 

4) Gore share of uncounted votes returning Gore voter turnout in 2004.

Returning Bush voter turnout is assumed to be 98% in all scenarios.

Worst-case scenario: Gore had 50% of uncounted votes and 90% of Gore voters turned out in 2004.

Kerry has a 51.2% share and a 4.8m winning margin with 325 EV.

 

2004

National

3

 

 

 

2004

National

4

 

 

Share of

Kerry Share of Gore

 

 

Gore

 

Gore share of uncounted

DNV

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

 

turnout

50%

60%

67%

75%

80%

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Kerry share %

 

 

59%

52.8

53.2

53.6

54.0

54.4

 

98%

52.4

52.7

52.9

53.2

53.4

58%

52.6

53.0

53.4

53.8

54.2

 

96%

52.1

52.4

52.7

52.9

53.1

57%

52.4

52.8

53.2

53.6

54.0

 

94%

51.8

52.1

52.4

52.7

52.8

56%

52.2

52.6

53.0

53.5

53.9

 

92%

51.5

51.9

52.1

52.4

52.5

55%

52.0

52.5

52.9

53.3

53.7

 

90%

51.2

51.6

51.8

52.1

52.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

Kerry margin (mil.)

 

59%

8.6

9.6

10.7

11.7

12.7

 

98%

7.6

8.5

9.1

9.8

10.2

58%

8.2

9.2

10.2

11.3

12.3

 

96%

6.9

7.8

8.4

9.1

9.5

57%

7.7

8.7

9.8

10.8

11.8

 

94%

6.2

7.1

7.7

8.4

8.8

56%

7.3

8.3

9.3

10.3

11.4

 

92%

5.5

6.4

7.0

7.7

8.1

55%

6.8

7.8

8.9

9.9

10.9

 

90%

4.8

5.7

6.3

7.0

7.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Electoral Vote

 

 

 

 

Kerry Electoral Vote

 

59%

351

370

390

390

398

 

98%

346

352

357

379

390

58%

351

357

390

390

398

 

96%

346

346

351

351

373

57%

351

351

379

390

390

 

94%

346

346

346

351

360

56%

346

351

373

390

390

 

92%

335

346

346

351

351

55%

346

351

360

390

390

 

90%

325

346

346

346

351

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MoE

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

 

MoE

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4