Footprints of Systemic Election Fraud: 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

Sept. 24, 2011

 

This is an analysis of unadjusted state exit poll discrepancies in the 1988-2008 presidential elections. A total 288 of 306 state presidential elections were exit polled. The pattern is clear: Democrats always do better in the polls than in the recorded count. There is no evidence that this one-sided result is due to anything other than vote miscounts.

 

1988-2004 exit poll data is from the Edison/Mitofsky 2004 Election Evaluation Report. The full set of 2008 exit polls and 24 of the 1988 state polls are from the Roper website. The complete analysis is displayed in the following 12 data tables:

 

1 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies

1988  - 2 True Vote Model and Final National Exit Poll, 3 Battleground State Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

2004  - 4 National Exit Poll, 5 True Vote Model, 6 Sensitivity Analysis, 7 State Recorded, Exit Poll, True Vote Shares, 8 State Exit Poll Timeline

2008  - 9 National Exit Poll, 10 True Vote Model, 11 Unadjusted State exit polls vs. Recorded Vote and True Vote, 12 Unadjusted National Exit Poll vs. Final

 

In 2008, the exit poll discrepancies (10.6 WPD) were substantially greater than in other elections. The True Vote Model (TVM) exactly matched Obama’s 58.1% aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls – a 23 million vote margin.  In 45 states there was a red-shift from the exit poll to the vote in favor of McCain. The 3.0% exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 37 states, all but one for McCain.  Obama’s landslide margin was much greater than the 9.5 million recorded.

 

Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the difference between the unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote margins.  “Error” implies that the exit polls were wrong and the election was fraud-free . But millions of votes are uncounted in every election (nearly 11 million in 1988 and 4 million in 2004). Therefore, it is more accurate to refer to Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD). A positive WPD indicates that the vote shift favored the GOP; a negative WPD favored the Democrat. In 2004, Kerry won the state exit polls by 52-47% but lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%, a WPD of 7.4%. The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote.

 

113 of 288 Exit Polls Exceed the Margin of Error

 

In the 288 state elections which were exit polled, 240 shifted from the exit poll to the Republican and 48 shifted to the Democrat.  The  average 3% margin of error was exceeded in 113 elections. One would expect an approximately equal shift. The one-sided red-shift to the Republican implies that the exit polls were incorrect or the votes were miscounted. It could not have been due to chance. But we have 288 exit polls, not just a few.  Exit polls are known to be quite accurate – outside the USA.

 

Were the discrepancies due to Republican voter reluctance to be polled in each of the six elections?  Not likely. Were they due to Democratic voters misstating how they voted to the exit pollsters in each of the six elections? Not likely. Or were they due to the millions of mostly Democratic votes that were uncounted? That is more than likely. It is a fact.Were they due to votes that were miscounted in favor of the Republican? That is quite likely.

 

A conservative 3.0% margin of error was exceeded in 113 of the 288 exit polls. 

- 15 Democratic states: average 6.3 WPD. The MoE was exceeded in 41 state elections- all in favor of the Republicans.

- 15 Battleground states: average 5.0 WPD. The MoE was exceeded in 37 states- all in favor of the Republicans

- 21 Republican states: average 3.7 WPD.  The MoE was exceeded in 35 states - all but two in favor of the Republicans.

 

Approximately 14 of the 288 elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error (7 Democrats and 7 Republicans). But the MoE was exceeded in 113 elections, all but two in favor of the Republicans. The probability is ZERO that this was due to chance. The probability that the MoE would be exceeded is 1 in 40 (2.5%) for the Democrat and 2.5% for the Republican.

 

1988

 

The 1988 CBS exit poll indicate that Dukakis did substantially better than the Edison/Mitofsky report. They show Dukakis winning the 24 battleground state aggreagte by a solid 51.6-47.3%. But George H.W. Bush won the recorded vote  by 52.3-46.8%, a substantial 9.8% Within Precinct Discrepancy, There were 68.7 million recorded votes in the battleground states (75% of the 91.6 million recorded).. Seven of the 24 states flipped to Bush from the exit polls – a total of 132 electoral votes - CA, MD, PA, MI, IL, VT and NM.  A very conservative 3% margin of error was exceeded in 14 of the 24 states. Dukakis may very well have won the election. According to the Census, there were at least 10.6 million net uncounted votes (i.e. net of stuffed ballots).

 

Dukakis won the Roper California exit poll in a landslide (57.7-40.8%), yet Bush won the recorded vote (51.1-47.65%) – an amazing 20.4% discrepancy. He won the IL exit poll by 8% but lost by 2%. In MI, Dukakis had a 3.5% exit poll margin and lost by 8%. In MD, his 12% exit poll win morphed into a 3% defeat. In PA, he won the exit poll by less than 1% and lost by 3%. Apart from California, perhaps the most anomalous exit poll result was Texas. In his home state, Bush barely won the exit poll by 1%.; he won the count by 13%. The eleven states in which the  Roper exit poll discrepancies were significantly greater than Edison-Mitofsky are noted by an asterisk.

 

2004

 

- 15 Democratic states: average 8.9 WPD. The MoE was exceeded in 11 states  - all for Bush.

- 15 Battleground states: average 6.9 WPD. The MoE was exceeded in 10 states -all for Bush.

- 21 Republican states: average 3.8 WPD. The MoE was exceeded in 7 states  - all for Bush.

 

The 3% margin of error was exceeded in a total of 28 states - all in favor of Bush. The probability is 1 in 19 trillion that the MoE would be exceeded in 16 states. Imagine what the probability is for 28 states.

Assuming a 2% MoE, the probability is even lower since the MoE was exceeded in 36 states: 34 in favor of Bush, 2 in favor of Kerry.

 

The distribution of the WPD in Democratic, GOP and Battleground states indicates that the GOP strategy was:

1) Pad Bush’s popular vote "mandate" by cutting Democratic margins in heavily populated BLUE states (NY, CA, CT, NJ, MD, MA, MI).

2) Steal the electoral votes in Battleground states (FL, OH, NM, CO, NV, MO, IA).

3) Pad the vote in RED states with large minority (Democratic) voting blocs (TX, MS, AL, TN, SC). Ignore the others (ND, SD, OK, MT, KY) 

 

2008

 

The exit poll discrepancies (10.6 WPD) were substantially greater than in other elections. The True Vote Model (TVM) exactly matched Obama’s 58.1% aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls – a 23 million vote margin.  In 45 states there was a red-shift from the exit poll to the vote in favor of McCain. The 3.0% exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 37 states, all but one for McCain.  Obama’s landslide margin was much greater than the 9.5 million recorded.

 

This graph tells you all you need to know about the 2008 election. Obama had a 58% True Vote share – not the official recorded 53%. This is confirmed by at least 4 independent statistical measures: 1) Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 2) Unadjusted state exit polls, 3) True Vote Model and 4)10 million late (paper ballot) votes.

 

2008 National and State exit polls, True Vote, Late and Recorded Vote shares

http://richardcharnin.com/2008NEPUnadjustedRoper_28080_image001.gif

 

 

 2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls confirm the True Vote Model

http://richardcharnin.com/2008ExiPollConfirmationTVM.htm

 

 

Graphical Comparison of  Roper and Edison-Mitofsky 1988 battleground state exit polls

http://richardcharnin.com/1988RoperExit_16115_image001.gif

 

Roper state exit polls

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html

 

Edison-Mitofsky 2004 Evaluation Report

http://www.ap.org/media/pdf/EvaluationEdisonMitofsky.pdf

 

 

 

Tables

 

1. 1988-2008 Exit Poll Discrepancies

 

1988

2. True Vote Model and Final National Exit Poll

3.  Battleground State Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

 

2004

4. National Exit Poll

5. True Vote Model

6. Sensitivity Analysis

7. State Recorded, Exit Poll and True Vote Shares                   

8. State Exit Poll Timeline

 

2008

9.  National Exit Poll 

10. True Vote Model

11. Unadjusted State exit polls vs. Recorded vote and the True Vote

12. Unadjusted  National Exit Poll vs. Final NEP

 

 

 

1.  1988-2008 Exit Poll Discrepancies

 

 

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Average

WPD

8.7

5.4

1.9

2.0

7.4

9.9

5.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

States Exceed MoE

 

 

 

 

 

 

3%

16

20

6

4

28

39

113

2%

21

30

12

15

36

44

158

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15 Democratic states

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Total

MoE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 > 3%

7

9

0

2

11

12

41

 > 2%

8

13

4

4

14

12

55

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Avg WPD

7.0

7.3

1.8

3.0

8.9

10.1

6.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CA

20.4

8.5

4.7

3.8

11.6

12.4

10.2

CT

(0.4)

8.3

(4.2)

0.9

16.0

27.0

7.9

DE

1.8

7.3

1.3

7.1

15.9

12.7

7.7

DC

na

na

na

na

2.8

(0.2)

1.3

HI

0.6

na

na

na

8.2

(2.5)

2.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IL

10.0

6.1

(1.2)

6.4

3.5

8.8

5.6

ME

6.4

5.1

4.4

2.1

4.0

9.3

5.2

MD

14.6

8.1

3.6

4.3

7.3

11.1

8.2

MA

4.4

7.1

3.3

4.3

7.7

11.6

6.4

MI

11.5

4.9

3.5

2.2

6.4

10.2

6.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NJ

9.1

11.2

1.9

0.4

9.1

13.3

7.5

NY

10.2

4.6

(2.1)

3.3

12.2

17.5

7.6

RI

(0.2)

9.0

1.1

0.4

5.3

10.2

4.3

VT

5.4

8.6

5.0

(0.4)

15.2

8.0

7.0

WA

3.7

5.5

2.0

3.7

8.0

2.6

4.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15 Battleground states

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Total

MoE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

>3%

6

6

4

2

10

9

37

>2%

7

9

5

5

12

12

50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Avg WPD

4.5

5.2

3.8

0.8

6.9

9.1

5.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO

3.0

7.2

1.5

5.6

6.1

(3.2)

3.4

FL

14.5

5.5

0.6

0.6

7.8

3.2

5.4

IA

0.0

2.0

(0.3)

(3.0)

3.0

6.2

1.3

MN

(0.7)

6.4

(1.7)

(0.5)

9.2

15.8

4.7

MO

3.1

8.6

5.8

(1.8)

5.8

16.2

6.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NV

10.4

(2.1)

na

6.0

9.9

2.1

5.3

NH

6.0

10.1

12.2

2.4

14.0

15.0

9.9

NM

7.6

6.3

7.0

(5.1)

8.0

4.2

4.7

NC

10.4

4.2

6.5

9.8

11.9

7.4

8.4

OH

4.5

4.4

3.1

1.0

10.6

9.7

5.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OR

6.5

13.6

2.4

na

1.8

3.6

5.6

PA

3.0

2.0

3.6

0.8

8.4

18.2

6.0

VA

(0.6)

3.5

6.5

2.0

8.7

19.5

6.6

WI

(1.1)

2.5

2.8

(2.4)

4.8

13.7

3.4

WV

0.2

3.2

2.6

(4.5)

(5.9)

5.1

0.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

21 Republican states

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Total

MoE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

>3%

3

5

2

0

7

18

35

>2%

6

8

3

6

10

20

53

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Avg WPD

2.8

3.4

1.6

0.8

3.8

9.8

3.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AL

na

1.2

2.4

5.5

10.0

26.6

9.1

AK

1.2

na

na

na

9.3

23.1

11.2

AZ

na

6.6

7.7

na

0.3

12.0

6.6

AR

(0.8)

7.8

(1.5)

3.2

1.3

na

2.0

GA

(1.8)

6.5

(3.3)

5.6

1.3

7.6

2.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ID

na

0.5

3.5

(2.5)

4.0

11.2

3.3

IN

17.4

6.8

2.0

3.6

2.2

11.5

7.2

KS

3.6

3.4

3.2

4.4

1.1

8.4

4.0

KY

1.0

3.9

(1.0)

(4.4)

0.4

11.4

1.9

LA

2.4

(1.0)

(6.5)

0.6

2.6

11.6

1.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MS

6.8

5.1

0.3

3.2

18.5

10.5

7.4

MT

4.4

(0.7)

2.4

(3.2)

(2.6)

12.7

2.2

NE

5.0

2.8

6.5

4.1

8.7

15.1

7.0

ND

1.6

4.2

2.0

(2.0)

(1.7)

(11.5)

-1.2

OK

(5.6)

4.7

(2.0)

(4.7)

(1.2)

12.7

0.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SC

1.4

2.0

2.8

3.5

9.7

5.1

4.1

SD

1.0

(2.8)

2.3

0.9

(5.1)

8.4

0.8

TN

(1.0)

6.8

3.0

(2.2)

1.3

8.4

2.7

TX

11.9

2.8

0.6

0.4

7.6

12.5

6.0

UT

na

2.2

3.5

(1.0)

4.3

(4.2)

1.0

WY

(1.0)

5.9

3.9

1.0

7.0

2.1

3.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shift from Exit Poll to Recorded Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Total

Shift to

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem

10

4

10

14

5

5

48

GOP

36

44

37

32

46

45

240

Total

46

48

47

46

51

50

288

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

> 3% MoE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem

0

0

1

0

0

1

2

GOP

16

20

6

4

28

37

111

Total

16

20

7

4

28

38

113

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

> 2% MoE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

To Dem

1

0

2

4

2

1

10

To GOP

20

31

10

11

34

40

146

Total

21

31

12

15

36

41

156

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shift to Dem

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Battleground

3

1

2

6

1

1

14

Dem

2

0

3

1

0

2

8

GOP

5

3

5

7

4

1

25

Total

10

4

10

14

5

4

47

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shift to GOP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Battleground

12

14

12

8

14

14

74

Dem

13

13

10

12

15

13

76

GOP

12

17

15

12

17

19

92

Total

37

44

37

32

46

46

242

 

 

 

2. 1988 True Vote Model and Final National Exit Poll

 

 

 

 

 

 

1988 True Vote Model

 

 

Final National Exit Poll

 

 

 

(Method 3: prior exit poll)

 

 

(matched to recorded vote)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Voted 1984

Mix

Dukakis

Bush

Other

 

Mix

Dukakis

Bush

Other

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New/DNV

11.0%

47%

52%

1%

 

8.4%

47%

52%

1%

Mondale

 

38.9%

92%

7%

1%

 

33.0%

92%

7%

1%

Reagan

 

49.6%

19%

80%

1%

 

58.0%

19%

80%

1%

Other

 

0.5%

50%

49%

1%

 

0.6%

50%

49%

1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote Share

100%

50.6%

48.4%

1.0%

 

100%

45.6%

53.4%

1.0%

True Vote

102,247

51,761

49,483

1,003

 

91,595

41,809

48,887

899

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dukakis True Vote Method 3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share of New/DNV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share of

45%

46%

47%

48%

49%

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

 

 

Vote share

 

 

 

 

 

 

21%

51.4%

51.5%

51.6%

51.7%

51.8%

 

 

 

 

 

20%

50.9%

51.0%

51.1%

51.2%

51.3%

 

 

 

 

 

19%

50.4%

50.5%

50.6%

50.7%

50.8%

 

 

 

 

 

18%

49.9%

50.0%

50.1%

50.2%

50.3%

 

 

 

 

 

17%

49.4%

49.5%

49.6%

49.7%

49.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

21%

3,855

4,080

4,306

4,531

4,756

 

 

 

 

 

20%

2,841

3,066

3,292

3,517

3,743

 

 

 

 

 

19%

1,827

2,053

2,278

2,503

2,729

 

 

 

 

 

18%

813

1,039

1,264

1,490

1,715

 

 

 

 

 

17%

-200

25

251

476

701

 

 

 

               

 

 

3. 1988 Battleground State Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 Total

Roper/CBS

 

 

 

ExitPoll

 

 

 

Recorded

Vote

 

 

 

Edison-

Mitofsky

State

EV

WPD

Recorded

Sample

Dukakis

Bush

Other

Dukakis

Bush

Other

Margin

Dukakis

Bush

Other

Margin

EV

Dukakis

Bush

IA

7

0.0%

1,226

1,784

970

788

26

54.4%

44.2%

1.5%

10.2%

54.7%

44.5%

0.8%

10.2%

-

55.0%

43.5%

FL

27

14.5%

4,302

2,025

927

1,087

11

45.8%

53.7%

0.5%

-7.9%

38.5%

60.9%

0.6%

-22.4%

-

39.7%

59.8%

CA

55

20.4%

9,887

2,368

1,366

966

36

57.7%

40.8%

1.5%

16.9%

47.6%

51.1%

1.3%

-3.5%

55

49.5%

49.0%

IN

11

17.4%

2,169

1,189

576

608

5

48.4%

51.1%

0.4%

-2.7%

39.7%

59.8%

0.5%

-20.1%

-

44.3%

55.3%

NJ

15

9.1%

3,100

1,314

619

678

17

47.1%

51.6%

1.3%

-4.5%

42.6%

56.2%

1.2%

-13.6%

-

44.7%

54.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WA

11

3.7%

1,865

1,121

578

520

23

51.6%

46.4%

2.1%

5.2%

50.0%

48.5%

1.5%

1.5%

-

52.8%

45.2%

MD

10

14.6%

1,714

1,158

641

506

11

55.4%

43.7%

1.0%

11.7%

48.2%

51.1%

0.7%

-2.9%

10

50.8%

48.3%

MS

6

6.8%

932

1,201

512

680

9

42.6%

56.6%

0.8%

-14.0%

39.1%

59.9%

1.0%

-20.8%

-

39.0%

60.3%

NV

5

10.4%

350

838

365

454

19

43.6%

54.2%

2.3%

-10.6%

37.9%

58.9%

3.2%

-21.0%

-

39.4%

58.3%

PA

21

3.0%

4,536

1,629

813

801

15

49.9%

49.2%

0.9%

0.7%

48.4%

50.7%

0.9%

-2.3%

21

48.8%

50.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NC

15

10.4%

2,134

1,500

703

791

6

46.9%

52.7%

0.4%

-5.9%

41.7%

58.0%

0.3%

-16.3%

-

41.9%

57.7%

VT

3

5.4%

243

773

386

371

16

49.9%

48.0%

2.1%

1.9%

47.6%

51.1%

1.3%

-3.5%

3

50.5%

47.5%

NM

5

7.6%

521

1,301

653

619

29

50.2%

47.6%

2.2%

2.6%

46.9%

51.9%

1.2%

-5.0%

5

50.2%

47.6%

WI

10

-1.2%

2,192

1,386

704

670

12

50.8%

48.3%

0.9%

2.5%

51.4%

47.8%

0.8%

3.6%

-

50.3%

48.8%

OR

7

6.6%

1,171

800

436

346

18

54.5%

43.3%

2.3%

11.3%

51.3%

46.6%

2.1%

4.7%

-

55.0%

42.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MN

9

-0.7%

2,097

1,171

613

539

19

52.4%

46.0%

1.6%

6.3%

52.9%

45.9%

1.2%

7.0%

-

52.3%

46.1%

OH

20

4.5%

4,394

1,550

722

821

7

46.6%

53.0%

0.5%

-6.4%

44.1%

55.0%

0.9%

-10.9%

-

45.0%

54.6%

TX

34

11.9%

5,427

2,004

985

1,002

17

49.2%

50.0%

0.9%

-0.9%

43.3%

56.0%

0.7%

-12.7%

-

43.0%

56.2%

MI

17

11.5%

3,669

1,550

793

738

19

51.2%

47.6%

1.2%

3.6%

45.7%

53.6%

0.7%

-7.9%

17

46.3%

52.5%

MO

11

3.1%

1,714

1,278

627

637

14

49.1%

49.8%

1.1%

-0.8%

47.9%

51.8%

0.3%

-3.9%

-

48.2%

50.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NY

31

10.2%

6,486

1,846

1,044

781

21

56.6%

42.3%

1.1%

14.3%

51.6%

47.5%

0.9%

4.1%

-

55.2%

43.6%

IL

21

10.0%

4,559

1,757

943

805

9

53.7%

45.8%

0.5%

7.9%

48.6%

50.7%

0.7%

-2.1%

21

49.9%

49.6%

MA

12

4.4%

2,633

1,172

647

504

21

55.2%

43.0%

1.8%

12.2%

53.2%

45.4%

1.4%

7.8%

-

56.6%

41.6%

CT

7

-0.4%

1,372

1,301

608

679

14

46.7%

52.2%

1.1%

-5.5%

46.9%

52.0%

1.1%

-5.1%

-

49.5%

49.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ExitPoll

370

9.76%

68,693

34,016

17,231

16,391

394

51.60%

47.31%

1.08%

4.29%

46.79%

52.26%

0.94%

-5.47%

132

48.28%

50.63%

National

Recorded

-

91,595

-

41,809

48,887

899

-

-

-

-

45.65%

53.37%

0.98%

-7.73%

-

-

-

 

 

 

4. Final 2004 National Exit Poll - forced to match recorded vote

 

Impossible 109.7% turnout of Bush 2000 voters and final vote share adjustments

 

 

National

2000

2000

 

     2004          

                      Vote shares

 

                 ---Votes (000)---

 

 

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

 -

 -

 -

20,790

17%

54%

44%

2%

11,227

9,148

416

-

Gore

55,436

51,004

48,454

45,249

37%

90%

10%

0%

40,724

4,525

0

93.4%

Bush

51,376

50,460

47,937

52,586

43%

9%

91%

0%

4,733

47,853

0

109.7%

Other

4,160

3,953

3,756

3,669

3%

64%

14%

22%

2,348

514

807

97.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEP

110,973

105,417

100,147

122,294

100.0%

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,031

62,039

1,223

101.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

252 EV

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

122,294

 

 

5. 2004 True Vote Model

 

12:22 am NEP vote shares; feasible 98% turnout of Election 2000 voters

 

National

2000

2000

 

           2004

                   Vote Shares

 

                 ---Votes (000)---

 

 

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

 -

 -

 -

22,421

17.8%

57%

41%

2%

12,780

9,193

448

-

Gore

55,997

51,004

53,197

52,133

41.5%

91%

9%

0%

47,441

4,692

0

98.0%

Bush

50,870

50,460

48,327

47,360

37.7%

10%

90%

0%

4,736

42,624

0

98.0%

Other

4,106

3,953

3,901

3,823

3.0%

64%

14%

22%

2,447

535

841

98.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True

110,973

105,417

105,424

125,737

100.0%

53.61%

45.37%

1.03%

67,404

57,044

1,289

98.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

252 EV

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

122,294

Recorded

48.38%

47.87%

3.75%

Discrepancy

-

5.34%

-5.36%

0.02%

8,375

(4,997)

65

 

 

 

6. 2004 Sensitivity Analysis

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

(changes to base case)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

 

Gore voter turnout

 

 

Share of

Kerry Share of  DNV

 

 

Share of

Kerry Share of Gore

 

 

Gore

 

Kerry share of DNV

 

 

turnout

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

 

Bush

55%

56%

57%

58%

59%

 

Bush

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

 

turnout

55%

56%

57%

58%

59%

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Kerry share (%)

 

 

90%

53.9

54.2

54.5

54.8

55.1

 

12%

54.0

54.2

54.4

54.6

54.7

 

12%

53.6

54.0

54.4

54.8

55.2

 

98%

53.3

53.5

53.6

53.8

54.0

 

92%

53.5

53.8

54.1

54.4

54.7

 

11%

53.6

53.8

54.0

54.2

54.4

 

11%

53.2

53.6

54.0

54.4

54.8

 

96%

53.0

53.2

53.3

53.5

53.7

 

94%

53.2

53.5

53.8

54.1

54.3

 

10%

53.3

53.5

53.6

53.8

54.0

 

10%

52.8

53.2

53.6

54.0

54.5

 

94%

52.7

52.9

53.1

53.2

53.4

 

96%

52.8

53.1

53.4

53.7

54.0

 

9%

52.9

53.1

53.3

53.4

53.6

 

9%

52.4

52.8

53.3

53.7

54.1

 

92%

52.4

52.6

52.8

53.0

53.2

 

98%

52.5

52.8

53.1

53.3

53.6

 

8%

52.5

52.7

52.9

53.1

53.2

 

8%

52.0

52.5

52.9

53.3

53.7

 

90%

52.1

52.3

52.5

52.7

52.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

Kerry margin (mil.)

 

 

90%

11.2

11.9

12.6

13.3

14.0

 

12%

11.4

11.9

12.3

12.8

13.2

 

12%

10.2

11.3

12.3

13.4

14.4

 

98%

9.5

10.0

10.4

10.9

11.3

 

92%

10.3

11.0

11.7

12.4

13.1

 

11%

10.5

10.9

11.4

11.8

12.3

 

11%

9.3

10.3

11.4

12.4

13.5

 

96%

8.8

9.3

9.7

10.2

10.7

 

94%

9.4

10.1

10.8

11.5

12.2

 

10%

9.5

10.0

10.4

10.9

11.3

 

10%

8.3

9.4

10.4

11.5

12.5

 

94%

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

 

96%

8.5

9.2

9.9

10.6

11.3

 

9%

8.6

9.0

9.5

9.9

10.4

 

9%

7.4

8.4

9.5

10.5

11.6

 

92%

7.3

7.8

8.3

8.8

9.3

 

98%

7.6

8.3

9.0

9.7

10.4

 

8%

7.6

8.1

8.5

9.0

9.4

 

8%

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.6

10.6

 

90%

6.6

7.1

7.6

8.2

8.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Electoral Vote

 

 

 

 

Kerry Electoral Vote

 

 

 

 

Kerry Electoral Vote

 

 

 

 

Kerry Electoral Vote

 

 

90%

370

370

370

380

400

 

12%

370

370

370

391

400

 

12%

370

370

370

400

400

 

98%

370

370

370

370

370

 

92%

370

370

370

370

391

 

11%

370

370

370

370

380

 

11%

370

370

370

370

400

 

96%

370

370

370

370

370

 

94%

370

370

370

370

370

 

10%

370

370

370

370

370

 

10%

357

370

370

370

370

 

94%

340

346

370

370

370

 

96%

340

370

370

370

370

 

9%

346

370

370

370

370

 

9%

340

357

370

370

370

 

92%

340

340

340

370

370

 

98%

340

340

370

370

370

 

8%

340

340

346

370

370

 

8%

340

340

346

370

370

 

90%

325

340

340

340

357

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MoE

1.04%

0.94%

0.82%

0.68%

0.49%

 

MoE

1.72%

1.72%

1.72%

1.71%

1.70%

 

MoE

1.08%

1.04%

0.99%

0.94%

0.88%

 

MoE

1.72%

1.72%

1.72%

1.71%

1.70%

 

 

 

7. 2004 State Recorded, Exit Poll and True Vote Shares 

 

 

2004

Recorded

 

Exit Poll

 

 

Model

 

 

Flipped to

 

Kerry

Bush

Margin

EV

Kerry

Bush

Margin

EV

Kerry

Bush

Margin

EV

Bush

Votes

59.03

62.04

(3.01)

252

65.34

59.20

6.14

338

67.46

57.02

10.45

370

118 EV

Share

48.27

50.73

(2.46)

 

51.97

47.08

4.89

 

53.65

45.35

8.31

 

10states

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AL

36.8

62.5

(25.6)

 

41.8

57.5

(15.6)

 

47.2

52.1

(5.0)

 

 

AK

35.5

61.1

(25.5)

 

40.2

56.4

(16.2)

 

38.9

57.7

(18.8)

 

 

AZ

44.4

54.9

(10.5)

 

44.5

54.7

(10.2)

 

48.9

50.3

(1.4)

 

 

AR

44.5

54.3

(9.8)

 

45.2

53.7

(8.5)

 

50.3

48.5

1.8

6

6

CA

54.3

44.4

9.9

55

60.1

38.6

21.5

55

60.2

38.5

21.6

55

 

 

CO

47.0

51.7

(4.7)

 

50.1

48.6

1.4

9

51.8

46.9

4.8

9

9

CT

54.3

43.9

10.4

7

62.3

35.9

26.4

7

60.9

37.3

23.6

7

 

DE

53.3

45.8

7.6

3

61.3

37.8

23.5

3

61.7

37.4

24.2

3

 

DC

89.2

9.3

79.8

3

90.6

7.9

82.6

3

90.6

7.9

82.6

3

 

FL

47.1

52.1

(5.0)

 

51.0

48.2

2.8

27

52.9

46.3

6.6

27

27

 

GA

41.4

58.0

(16.6)

 

42.0

57.3

(15.3)

 

48.1

51.2

(3.1)

 

 

HI

54.0

45.3

8.7

4

58.1

41.2

16.9

4

60.8

38.5

22.2

4

 

ID

30.3

68.4

(38.1)

 

32.3

66.4

(34.1)

 

33.9

64.7

(30.8)

 

 

IL

54.8

44.5

10.3

21

56.6

42.7

13.8

21

59.9

39.4

20.5

21

 

IN

39.3

59.9

(20.7)

 

40.4

58.8

(18.5)

 

46.0

53.2

(7.2)

 

 

 

IA

49.2

49.9

(0.7)

 

50.7

48.4

2.3

7

51.6

47.5

4.1

7

7

KS

36.6

62.0

(25.4)

 

37.2

61.5

(24.3)

 

43.8

54.8

(11.0)

 

 

KY

39.7

59.6

(19.9)

 

39.9

59.4

(19.5)

 

43.5

55.8

(12.3)

 

 

LA

42.2

56.7

(14.5)

 

43.5

55.4

(11.9)

 

48.4

50.5

(2.2)