An analysis of state exit poll discrepancies for the
1988-2004 elections yields an interesting pattern. The data is from Edison
Media Research/Mitofsky International: "Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky
Election System 2004" (
http://www.ap.org/media/pdf/EvaluationEdisonMitofsky.pdf
For example, in NY 2004 the 12.2 WPD is the difference between Kerry’s exit poll (30.3) and recorded vote margin (18.1). Kerry’s unadjusted exit poll share was 6.1% higher than his recorded share, far exceeding the 2-3% margin of error (MoE). The WPD is double the share deviation.
NY Share Kerry Bush Margin
Exit Poll 64.5 34.2 30.3
Recorded 58.4 40.3 18.1
WPD +6.1 -6.1 12
.2
Of the 238 state
elections, 194 shifted from the exit poll to the vote for the Republican and 44
to the Democrat.
Shift to 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 Total Share
Dem 5 14 10 4 11 44 18.5%
GOP 46 32 37 44 35 194 81.5%
Total 51 46 47 48 46 238 100%
One would expect an
approximately equal shift. The fact that 82% vote shifted to the Republican
over the five presidential elections was either due to errors in the exit polls
or vote miscounts. It could not have been due to chance. But we have 238 exit
polls, not just a few. Exit polls are
known to be quite accurate – outside the
Assuming a 3% MoE for each of the 238 state exit polls:
- In 15 Democratic states, the average WPD was 4.9. The MoE was exceeded in 25 elections, ALL for the Republican.
- In 15 Battleground states, the average WPD was 3.8. The MoE was also exceeded in 25 elections, ALL for the Republican.
- In 21 Republican
states, the average WPD was 2.3. The MoE was exceeded
in 15 elections, ALL but ONE for the Republican.
Were the discrepancies due to Republican voters reluctance to be polled in each of the five elections? Not likely.
Were they due to Democratic voters misstating how they voted to the exit pollsters and actually voting for the Republican in each of the five elections? Not likely.
Or were they due to the millions of mostly Democratic votes that were uncounted? That is more than likely. It is a fact.
Or were they due to votes that were miscounted in favor of the Republican? That is quite likely.
We assume a
conservative 3% unadjusted exit poll margin of error for each state election.
Since the vote share deviation is one-half the WPD, a 3% MoE
is exceeded when the WPD is at least 6%. Given the 95% confidence level,
approximately 12 of 238 elections would be expected to fall outside the margin
of error (6 for the Democrats and 6 for the Republicans). But the MoE
was exceeded in 65 elections - 64 in favor of the Republicans. The probability is essentially ZERO that this
was due to chance.
The probability that
the MoE would be exceeded a given state is 1/20 (5%).
It is 1/40 (2.5%) for the Democrat and 2.5% for the Republican.
The probability that
the MoE would be exceeded in at least N of 238 state elections is given by
the Excel BINOMDIST function:
Prob =1- BINOMDIST (N-1, 238,
2.5%, TRUE)
The following table lists the probability that the MoE would be exceeded in at least N of 238 states.
The function cuts off at N=34, a
1 in 200 trillion probability.
Imagine what it is for
64 states.
N Probability or 1 in
|
2 |
93.8% |
1 |
|
5 |
54.8% |
2 |
|
10 |
3.9% |
26 |
|
15 |
0.04% |
2,642 |
|
20 |
7.9E-07 |
1,258,312 |
|
25 |
4.8E-10 |
2,080,038,070
|
|
30 |
1.1E-13 |
9,324,222,830,995
|
|
34 |
5.0E-15 |
200,159,983,438,689
|
---
64 ??????
Assuming a more realistic 2% exit poll MoE, it would be exceeded if the WPD were at least 4%. The 2% MoE was exceeded in 108 of 238 state elections: 99 in favor of the Republican, 9 in favor of the Democrats.
Let’s take a closer look at the 2004 election.
- The average Democratic state WPD was a whopping 8.9. The MoE was exceeded in 11 of 15 states (73%) - all for Bush.
- The average Battleground state WPD was 6.9. The MoE was exceeded in 10 of 15 states (67%) for Bush and none for Kerry.
-
The average Republican state WPD was 3.8. The MoE was
exceeded in 7 of 21 states (33%) - all for Bush.
The 3% margin of error was exceeded in a total of 28
states - all in favor of Bush. The probability is 1 in 19 trillion that the MoE would be exceeded in 16 states. Imagine what the
probability is for 28 states.
Assuming
a 2% MoE, the probability is even lower since the MoE was exceeded in 36 states: 34 in favor of Bush, 2 in favor
of Kerry.
The distribution of the WPD in Democratic, GOP and Battleground states indicates that the GOP strategy was:
1) Pad Bush’s popular vote "mandate" by cutting Democratic margins in heavily populated BLUE states (NY, CA, CT, NJ, MD, MA, MI).
2) Steal the electoral votes in Battleground states (FL, OH, NM, CO, NV, MO, IA).
3) Pad the vote in RED states with large minority (Democratic) voting blocs (TX, MS, AL, TN, SC). Ignore the others (ND, SD, OK, MT, KY).
Unadjusted exit poll data has not been released for
2008. Is it because the data would
confirm what the 1988-2004 exit polls indicate? In every election, the
Democrats do much better than the official recorded vote indicates. As always,
the Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. A True
Vote Model (see below) indicates that Obama won by
over 22 million votes.
Wtd 7.40 2.01 1.93 5.40 2.38 3.82
3% 28 4
6 20 7 65 (64
favored the Republican, 1 the Democrat)
2% 36 15 12 30 15 108 (99
favored the Republican, 9 the Democrat)
15 Democratic states (4.9 average WPD)
2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 Total
> 3% 11 2 0 9 3 25 25 states
exceeded the 3% MoE (WPD >6) for the GOP, none for
the Dems
> 2% 14 4 4 13 8 43 42 exceeded the 2% MoE
(WPD >4) for the GOP, 1 for the Dems
CA 11.6 3.8 4.7 8.5 3.8 6.5
CT 16.0 0.9 -4.2 8.3 5.2 5.2
DE 15.9 7.1 1.3 7.3 1.8 6.7
DC 2.8 na na na na 2.8
HI 8.2 na na na 0.6 4.4
IL 3.5 6.4 -1.2 6.1 2.6 3.5
ME 4.0 2.1 4.4 5.1 6.4 4.4
MD 7.3 4.3 3.6 8.1 5.2 5.7
MA 7.7 4.3 3.3 7.1 6.8 5.8
MI 6.4 2.2 3.5 4.9 1.2 3.6
NJ 9.1 0.4 1.9 11.2 4.2 5.4
NY 12.2 3.3 -2.1 4.6 7.2 5.0
RI 5.3 0.4 1.1 9.0 -0.2 3.1
VT 15.2 -0.4 5.0 8.6 5.8 6.8
WA 8.0 3.7 2.0 5.5 5.4 4.9
15 Battleground states (3.8 average WPD)
2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 Total
MoE
>3% 10 2 4 6 3 25 25 states
exceeded the 3% MoE for the GOP, none for the Dems
>2% 12 5 5 9 3 34 31 exceeded the 2% MoE
for the GOP, 3 for the Dems
CO 6.1 5.6 1.5 7.2 3.0 4.7
FL 7.8 0.6 0.6 5.5 2.4 3.4
IA 3.0 -3.0 -0.3 2.0 0.6 0.5
MN 9.2 -0.5 -1.7 6.4 -1.2 2.4
MO 5.8 -1.8 5.8 8.6 0.6 3.8
NV 9.9 6.0 na -2.1 3.0 4.2
NH 14.0 2.4 12.2 10.1 6.0 8.9
NM 8.0 -5.1 7.0 6.3 6.6 4.6
NC 11.9 9.8 6.5 4.2 0.4 6.6
OH 10.6 1.0 3.1 4.4 1.6 4.1
OR 1.8 na 2.4 13.6 7.4 6.3 100% mail-in ballots starting in 2000. WPD
based on telephone survey.
PA 8.4 0.8 3.6 2.0 0.8 3.1
VA 8.7 2.0 6.5 3.5 -0.6 4.0
WI 4.8 -2.4 2.8 2.5 -2.2 1.1
WV -5.9 -4.5 2.6 3.2 0.2 -0.9
21
Republican states (2.3 average WPD)
2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 Total
MoE
>3% 7 0 2 5 1 15 14 states exceeded the 3% MoE for the GOP, 1 for the Dems
>2% 10 6 3 8 4 31
26 states exceeded the 2% MoE for the GOP, 5
for the Dems
AK 9.3 na na na 1.2 5.3
AZ 0.3 na 7.7 6.6 na 3.7
AR 1.3 3.2 -1.5 7.8 -0.8 2.0
GA 1.3 5.6 -3.3 6.5 -1.8 1.7
ID 4.0 -2.5 3.5 0.5 na 1.4
IN 2.2 3.6 2.0 6.8 9.2 4.8
KS 1.1 4.4 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.1
KY 0.4 -4.4 -1.0 3.9 1.0 0.0
LA 2.6 0.6 -6.5 -1.0 2.4 -0.4
MS 18.5 3.2 0.3 5.1 -0.2 5.4
MT -2.6 -3.2 2.4 -0.7 4.4 0.1
NE 8.7 4.1 6.5 2.8 5.0 5.4
ND -1.7 -2.0 2.0 4.2 1.6 0.8
OK -1.2 -4.7 -2.0 4.7 -5.6 -1.8
SC 9.7 3.5 2.8 2.0 1.4 3.9
SD -5.1 0.9 2.3 -2.8 1.0 -0.7
TN 1.3 -2.2 3.0 6.8 -1.0 1.6
TX 7.6 0.4 0.6 2.8 -0.8 2.1
UT 4.3 -1.0 3.5 2.2 na 2.3
WY 7.0 1.0 3.9 5.9 -1.0 3.4
Shift
to 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 Total Share
Dem 5 14 10 4 11 44 18.5% of 238
GOP 46 32 37 44 35 194 81.5%
Total 51 46 47 48 46 238 100%
>
3% MoE
Dem 0 0 1 0 0 1 0.4% of 238
GOP 28 4 6 20 7 65 27.3%
Total 28 4 7 20 7 66 27.7%
>
2% MoE
To
Dem 2 4 2 0 1 9 3.8% of 238
To
GOP 34 11 10 31 14 100 42.0%
Total 36 15 12 31 15 109 45.8%
Shift
to Dem
Battleground 1 6 2 1 3 13 17.8% of 73
Dem 0 1 3 0 1 5 7.5% of 67
GOP 4 7 5 3 7 26 26.5% of 98
Total 5 14 10 4 11 44 18.5% of 238
Shift
to GOP
Battleground 14 8 12 14 12 60 82.2% of 73
Dem 15 12 10 13 13 63 94.0% of 67
GOP 17 12 15 17 10 71 72.4% of 98
Total 46 32 37 44 35 194 81.5% of 238
To
Dem >2% MoE
Battleground 1 2 0 0 0 3 4.1% of 73
Dem 0 0 1 0 0 1 1.5% of 67
GOP 1 2 1 0 1 5 5.1% of 98
Total 2 4 2 0 1 9 3.8% of 238
To
GOP > 2% MoE
Battleground 11 3 3 9 3 29 39.7% of 73
Dem 13 4 3 13 8 41 61.2% of 67
GOP 10 4 3 9 3 29 29.6% of 98
Total 34 11 9 31 14 99 41.6% of 238
95% 97% 2008
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Recorded NEP NEP National Exit Poll Vote s Turnout%
2004 2004 2004 2008 Turnout Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Recorded
DNV - - - - 17.09 13% 71 27 2 -
Kerry 48.3% 59.03 59.03 56.08 54.39 48.64 37% 89 9 2 87
Bush 50.7% 62.04 62.04 58.94 57.17 60.47 46% 17 82 1 103
Other 1.0% 1.23 1.23 1.17 1.13 5.26 4% 66 26 8 451
Margin
Total 122.30 122.30 116.18 112.70 131.5 Share 52.6% 45.6% 1.8% 7.0%
Vote 69.17 59.95 2.34 9.23
Vote (mil) Pct Share (%) Vote (mil)
MoE 2004 Cast Recorded Alive Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other Total
1.6% DNV 16.4 12.4 71 27 2 11.7 4.4 0.3 16.4
1.1% Kerry 67.1 59.0 63.8 61.9 46.8 89 10 1 55.1 6.2 0.6 61.9
1.3% Bush 57.0 62.0 54.1 52.5 39.7 17 82 1 8.9 43.0 0.5 52.5
1.6% Other 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.1 66 12 22 1.0 0.2 0.3 1.5
True 125.7 122.3 119.5 132.3 419EV 57.9 40.7 1.4 76.7 53.8 1.8 132.3
2004 Bush Kerry Other Record 365EV 52.9 45.6 1.5 69.5 59.9 2.0 131.4
Recorded 50.7 48.3 1.0 Diff - 5.1 -4.9 -0.1 7.2 -6.1 -0.2 0.9
ExitP 47.0 52.0 1.0
Bush Kerry voter turnout Share of Obama Share of DNV
turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Bush 69% 70% 71% 72% 73%
Obama Share (%) Obama Share (%)
90% 58.9 59.1 59.2 59.4 59.6 19% 58.5 58.6 58.7 58.9 59.0
92% 58.4 58.6 58.8 59.0 59.1 18% 58.1 58.2 58.3 58.5 58.6
94% 58.0 58.2 58.3 58.5 58.7 17% 57.7 57.8 57.9 58.1 58.2
96% 57.6 57.7 57.9 58.1 58.2 16% 57.3 57.4 57.5 57.7 57.8
98% 57.1 57.3 57.5 57.6 57.8 15% 56.9 57.0 57.1 57.3 57.4
Obama Margin (mil.) Obama Margin (mil.)
90% 25.4 25.8 26.3 26.7 27.1 19% 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.6
92% 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.5 26.0 18% 23.2 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.5
94% 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.3 24.8 17% 22.1 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.5
96% 21.8 22.3 22.7 23.2 23.6 16% 21.1 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.4
98% 20.7 21.1 21.5 22.0 22.4 15% 20.0 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.4
Obama Electoral Vote Obama Electoral Vote
90% 419 419 425 428 434 19% 419 419 419 419 419
92% 419 419 419 419 419 18% 419 419 419 419 419
94% 419 419 419 419 419 17% 408 419 419 419 419
96% 419 419 419 419 419 16% 397 397 408 408 419
98% 389 397 408 408 419 15% 389 389 389 408 408
MoE 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% MoE 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
1.5%
Recorded Vote True Vote Flipped to
Obama McCain Margin EV Obama McCain Margin EV McCain
69.5 59.9 9.5 365 76.7 53.8 22.8 419 5
52.9% 45.6% 7.2% 57.9% 40.7% 17.2% 55 EV
AK 37.9 59.4 -21.5 44.5 52.8 -8.3
AZ 44.9 53.4 -8.5 50.9 47.4 3.5 10 10
AR 38.9 58.7 -19.9 47.0 50.6 -3.6
CA 61.0 36.9 24.0 55 60.9 37.0 23.8 55
CO 53.7 44.7 9.0 9 55.8 42.6 13.2 9
CT 60.6 38.2 22.4 7 62.9 35.9 27.0 7
DE 61.9 36.9 25.0 3 61.3 37.6 23.7 3
DC 92.5 6.5 85.9 3 89.9 9.1 80.7 3
FL 50.9 48.1 2.8 27 55.8 43.2 12.5 27
GA 46.9 52.1 -5.2 50.8 48.2 2.6 15 15
HI 71.8 26.6 45.3 4 63.6 34.9 28.7 4
ID 36.0 61.3 -25.3 38.9 58.4 -19.5
IL 61.9 36.8 25.1 21 61.1 37.6 23.5 21
IN 49.9 48.9 1.0 11 49.6 49.2 0.5 11
IA 53.9 44.4 9.5 7 54.6 43.7 10.9 7
KS 41.6 56.5 -14.9 43.0 55.1 -12.1
KY 41.1 57.4 -16.2 45.1 53.4 -8.4
LA 39.9 58.6 -18.6 46.2 52.3 -6.1
ME 57.7 40.4 17.3 4 58.9 39.1 19.8 4
MD 61.9 36.5 25.4 10 62.6 35.8 26.8 10
MA 61.8 36.0 25.8 12 65.0 32.7 32.3 12
MI 57.4 40.9 16.5 17 57.4 40.9 16.5 17
MN 54.1 43.8 10.2 10 55.8 42.1 13.7 10
MS 43.0 56.2 -13.2 47.9 51.3 -3.3
MO 49.3 49.4 -0.1 52.1 46.5 5.6 11 11
MT 47.2 49.4 -2.3 46.5 50.1 -3.6
NE 41.6 56.5 -14.9 1 40.7 57.5 -16.8
NV 55.1 42.7 12.5 5 56.3 41.6 14.7 5
NH 54.1 44.5 9.6 4 56.3 42.4 13.9 4
NJ 57.2 41.6 15.5 15 59.2 39.6 19.6 15
NM 56.9 41.8 15.1 5 57.0 41.7 15.3 5
NY 62.8 36.1 26.7 31 64.2 34.7 29.5 31
NC 49.7 49.4 0.3 15 53.7 45.4 8.4 15
ND 44.5 53.1 -8.6 42.6 54.9 -12.3
OH 51.4 46.8 4.5 20 54.4 43.8 10.6 20
OK 34.4 65.6 -31.3 39.8 60.2 -20.4
OR 56.7 40.4 16.3 7 55.6 41.5 14.1 7
PA 54.5 44.2 10.3 21 56.3 42.3 14.0 21
RI 63.1 35.2 27.9 4 64.9 33.4 31.5 4
SC 44.9 53.9 -9.0 50.2 48.6 1.6 8 8
SD 44.7 53.2 -8.4 45.6 52.3 -6.8
TN 41.8 56.9 -15.1 49.9 48.8 1.1 11 11
TX 43.6 55.4 -11.8 46.4 52.6 -6.2
UT 34.3 62.3 -28.1 33.6 63.1 -29.5
VT 67.5 30.5 37.0 3 65.5 32.4 33.1 3
VA 52.6 46.3 6.3 13 55.7 43.2 12.5 13
WA 57.4 40.3 17.1 11 58.6 39.1 19.5 11
WV 42.6 55.7 -13.1 46.2 52.1 -5.9
WI 56.2 42.3 13.9 10 55.3 43.2 12.2 10
WY 32.5 64.8 -32.2 35.2 62.1 -27.0
95% 98% 2004
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Recorded NEP NEP National Exit Poll Shares Turnout%
2000 2000 2000 2004 Turnout Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Recorded
DNV - - - - - 20.79 17% 54 45 1 -
Gore 48.4% 51.00 51.00 48.45 47.48 45.25 37% 90 10 0 93
Bush 47.9% 50.46 50.46 47.93 46.97 52.59 43% 9 91 0 110
Other 3.8% 3.96 3.96 3.76 3.69 3.67 3% 64 9 27 98
Margin
Total 100% 105.42 105.42 100.15 98.14 122.3 Share 48.3% 50.8% 1.0% -2.5%
Vote 59.0 62.0 1.2 -3.0
Recorded Share 48.3% 50.7% 1.0% -2.5%
Vote 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2 -3.0
Vote (mil) Pct Share (%) Vote
(mil)
MoE 2000 Cast Record Alive Turnout
Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Total
1.7% DNV - -
- 22.6 17.9 57 41 2 12.9 9.3 0.4 22.6
1.0% Gore 55.8 51.0 53.0 51.9 41.3 91 8 1 47.3 4.2 0.5 51.9
1.0% Bush 51.0 50.5 48.5 47.5 37.8 10 90 0 4.8 42.8 0.0 47.5
1.7% Other 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.0 64 17 19 2.4 0.6 0.7 3.7
True 110.8 105.4 105.3 125.7 379EV
53.5 45.2 1.3 67.3 56.8 1.7 125.7
2000 Bush Gore Other Recorded 48.3 50.7 1.0 59.0 62.0 1.2 122.3
Record
47.9 48.4 3.8 Diff 5.2 -5.5 0.3 8.2 -5.2 0.4 3.4
ExitP 46.9 49.4 3.8 Exit
Poll 51.9 47.1 1.0 63.5 57.6 1.2 122.3
Cast 46.1 50.3 3.6 Diff 1.6 -1.9 0.3 3.8 -0.8 0.4 3.4
Bush Gore
voter turnout Share
of Kerry Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Bush 55% 56% 57% 58% 59%
Kerry Share (%) Kerry Share (%)
90% 53.8 54.1 54.3 54.6 54.9 12% 53.9 54.1 54.2 54.4 54.6
92% 53.4 53.7 54.0 54.3 54.6 11% 53.5 53.7 53.9 54.0 54.2
94% 53.1 53.3 53.6 53.9 54.2 10% 53.1 53.3 53.5 53.7 53.8
96% 52.7 53.0 53.3 53.6 53.8 9% 52.8 52.9 53.1 53.3 53.5
98% 52.3 52.6 52.9 53.2 53.5 8% 52.4 52.6 52.7 52.9 53.1
Kerry Margin
(mil.) Kerry Margin (mil.)
90% 11.2 11.9 12.7 13.4 14.1 12% 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.2
92% 10.3 11.0 11.7 12.5 13.2 11% 10.5 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.3
94% 9.4 10.1 10.8 11.5 12.3 10% 9.5 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.3
96% 8.5 9.2 9.9 10.6 11.3 9% 8.6 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.4
98% 7.6 8.3 9.0 9.7 10.4 8% 7.6 8.1 8.5 9.0 9.4
Kerry Electoral
Vote Kerry
Electoral Vote
90% 390 390 390 398 398 12% 390 390 390 390 398
92% 379 390 390 390 398 11% 390 390 390 390 390
94% 351 379 390 390 390 10% 360 373 379 390 390
96% 351 351 370 390 390 9% 351 351 351 357 379
98% 346 351 351 351 379 8% 346 351 351 351 351
MoE 1.04% 0.94% 0.82% 0.68% 0.49% MoE 1.72% 1.72% 1.72% 1.71% 1.70%
2004 Recorded Exit Poll True Vote Flipped to
Kerry Bush Margin EV Kerry Bush Margin
EV Kerry Bush Margin EV Bush
59.0 62.0 -3.0 252 65.3 59.2 6.1 338 67.3 56.8 10.4 379 12
Share
48.3% 50.7% -2.5% - 51.9% 47.1% 4.8% 53.5% 45.2% 1.3% - 127
EV
AK 35.5 61.1 -25.5 40.2 56.4 -16.2 38.5 58.1 -19.5
AZ 44.4 54.9 -10.5 44.5 54.7 -10.2 51.3 47.9 3.4 10 10
AR 44.5 54.3 -9.8 45.2 53.7 -8.5 49.6 49.3 0.3 6 6
CA 54.3 44.4 9.9 55 60.1 38.6 21.5 55 58.9 39.8 19.1 55
CO 47.0 51.7 -4.7 50.1 48.6 1.4 9 52.4 46.3 6.1 9 9
CT 54.3 43.9 10.4 7 62.3 35.9 26.4 7 64.0 34.2 29.8 7
DE 53.3 45.8 7.6 3 61.3 37.8 23.5 3 59.2 39.9 19.2 3
DC 89.2 9.3 79.8 3 90.6 7.9 82.6 3 89.0 9.5 79.5 3
FL 47.1 52.1 -5.0 51.0 48.2 2.8 27 52.3 46.8 5.5 27 27
GA 41.4 58.0 -16.6 42.0 57.3 -15.3 48.0 51.3 -3.3
HI 54.0 45.3 8.7 4 58.1 41.2 16.9 4 64.9 34.4 30.5 4
ID 30.3 68.4 -38.1 32.3 66.4 -34.1 33.2 65.4 -32.2
IL 54.8 44.5 10.3 21 56.6 42.7 13.8 21 59.4 39.9 19.5 21
IN 39.3 59.9 -20.7 40.4 58.8 -18.5 46.8 52.4 -5.6
IA 49.2 49.9 -0.7 50.7 48.4 2.3 7 53.3 45.9 7.4 7 7
KS 36.6 62.0 -25.4 37.2 61.5 -24.3 42.4 56.2 -13.8
KY 39.7 59.6 -19.9 39.9 59.4 -19.5 45.8 53.4 -7.6
LA 42.2 56.7 -14.5 43.5 55.4 -11.9 49.7 49.3 0.4 9 9
ME 53.6 44.6 9.0 4 55.6 42.6 13.0 4 56.3 41.9 14.4 4
MD 55.9 42.9 13.0 10 59.6 39.3 20.3 10 60.9 38.0 22.9 10
MA 61.9 36.8 25.2 12 65.8 32.9 32.9 12 67.3 31.4 35.8 12
MI 51.2 47.8 3.4 17 54.4 44.6 9.8 17 55.1 43.9 11.2 17
MN 51.1 47.6 3.5 10 55.7 43.0 12.7 10 55.9 42.8 13.1 10
MS 39.8 59.4 -19.7 49.0 50.2 -1.2 47.4 51.8 -4.4
MO 46.1 53.3 -7.2 49.0 50.4 -1.4 52.4 47.0 5.4 11 11
MT 38.6 59.1 -20.5 37.3 60.4 -23.1 40.7 56.9 -16.2
NE 32.7 65.9 -33.2 37.0 61.5 -24.5 37.5 61.1 -23.7
NV 47.9 50.5 -2.6 52.8 45.5 7.3 5 52.4 45.9 6.5 5 5
NH 50.2 48.9 1.4 4 57.2 41.9 15.4 4 53.5 45.6 7.9 4
NJ 52.9 46.2 6.7 15 57.5 41.7 15.8 15 60.0 39.2 20.8 15
NM 49.0 49.8 -0.8 53.0 45.8 7.2 5 54.5 44.4 10.1 5 5
NY 58.4 40.1 18.3 31 64.5 34.0 30.5 31 64.0 34.4 29.6 31
NC 43.6 56.0 -12.4 49.5 50.1 -0.5 47.5 52.1 -4.6
ND 35.5 62.9 -27.4 34.6 63.7 -29.1 40.3 58.1 -17.8
OH 48.7 50.8 -2.1 54.0 45.5 8.5 20 52.3 47.2 5.1 20 20
OK 34.4 65.6 -31.1 33.8 66.2 -32.3 44.1 55.9 -11.8
OR 51.3 47.2 4.2 7 52.2 46.3 6.0 7 54.6 43.9 10.7 7
PA 50.9 48.4 2.5 21 55.1 44.2 10.9 21 55.3 44.1 11.2 21
RI 59.4 38.7 20.8 4 62.1 36.0 26.1 4 66.4 31.7 34.7 4
SC 40.9 58.0 -17.1 45.8 53.1 -7.4 48.4 50.5 -2.0
SD 38.4 59.9 -21.5 35.9 62.5 -26.6 41.4 57.0 -15.6
TN 42.5 56.8 -14.3 43.2 56.1 -13.0 49.7 49.7 0.0
TX 38.2 61.1 -22.9 42.0 57.3 -15.3 44.0 55.3 -11.4
UT 26.0 71.5 -45.5 28.1 69.4 -41.2 32.7 64.9 -32.2
VT 58.9 38.8 20.1 3 66.5 31.2 35.3 3 60.0 37.8 22.2 3
VA 45.5 53.7 -8.2 49.8 49.3 0.5 13 49.8 49.3 0.5 13 13
WA 52.8 45.6 7.2 11 56.8 41.6 15.2 11 55.9 42.5 13.4 11
WV 43.2 56.1 -12.9 40.2 59.0 -18.8 50.6 48.7 1.9 5 5
WI 49.7 49.3 0.4 10 52.1 46.9 5.2 10 53.5 45.6 7.9 10
WY 29.1 68.9 -39.8 32.6 65.4 -32.8 31.5 66.4 -34.9