Footprints of Systemic Election Fraud: 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Sept. 24, 2011

This is an analysis of unadjusted state exit poll discrepancies in the 1988-2008 presidential elections. A total 288 of 306 state presidential elections were exit polled. The pattern is clear: Democrats always do better in the polls than in the recorded count. There is no evidence that this one-sided result is due to anything other than vote miscounts.

1988-2004 exit poll data is from the Edison/Mitofsky 2004 Election Evaluation Report. The full set of 2008 exit polls and 24 of the 1988 state polls are from the Roper website. The complete analysis is displayed in the following 12 data tables:

1 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies

1988 - 2 True Vote Model and Final National Exit Poll, 3 Battleground State Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

2004 - 4 National Exit Poll, 5 True Vote Model, 6 Sensitivity Analysis, 7 State Recorded, Exit Poll, True Vote Shares, 8 State Exit Poll Timeline

2008 - 9 National Exit Poll, 10 True Vote Model, 11 Unadjusted State exit polls vs. Recorded Vote and True Vote, 12 Unadjusted National Exit Poll vs. Final

In 2008, the exit poll discrepancies (10.6 WPD) were substantially greater than in other elections. The True Vote Model (TVM) exactly matched Obama’s 58.1% aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls – a 23 million vote margin. In 45 states there was a red-shift from the exit poll to the vote in favor of McCain. The 3.0% exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 37 states, all but one for McCain. Obama’s landslide margin was much greater than the 9.5 million recorded.

Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the difference between the unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote margins. “Error” implies that the exit polls were wrong and the election was fraud-free . But millions of votes are uncounted in every election (nearly 11 million in 1988 and 4 million in 2004). Therefore, it is more accurate to refer to Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD). A positive WPD indicates that the vote shift favored the GOP; a negative WPD favored the Democrat. In 2004, Kerry won the state exit polls by 52-47% but lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%, a WPD of 7.4%. The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote.

113 of 288 Exit Polls Exceed the Margin of Error

In the 288 state elections which were exit polled, 240 shifted from the exit poll to the Republican and 48 shifted to the Democrat. The average 3% margin of error was exceeded in 113 elections. One would expect an approximately equal shift. The one-sided red-shift to the Republican implies that the exit polls were incorrect or the votes were miscounted. It could not have been due to chance. But we have 288 exit polls, not just a few. Exit polls are known to be quite accurate – outside the USA.

Were the discrepancies due to Republican voter reluctance to be polled in each of the six elections? Not likely. Were they due to Democratic voters misstating how they voted to the exit pollsters in each of the six elections? Not likely. Or were they due to the millions of mostly Democratic votes that were uncounted? That is more than likely. It is a fact.Were they due to votes that were miscounted in favor of the Republican? That is quite likely.

A conservative 3.0% margin of error was exceeded in 113 of the 288 exit polls.

- 15 Democratic states: average 6.3 WPD. The MoE was exceeded in 41 state elections- all in favor of the Republicans.

- 15 Battleground states: average 5.0 WPD. The MoE was exceeded in 37 states- all in favor of the Republicans

- 21 Republican states: average 3.7 WPD. The MoE was exceeded in 35 states - all but two in favor of the Republicans.

Approximately 14 of the 288 elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error (7 Democrats and 7 Republicans). But the MoE was exceeded in 113 elections, all but two in favor of the Republicans. The probability is ZERO that this was due to chance. The probability that the MoE would be exceeded is 1 in 40 (2.5%) for the Democrat and 2.5% for the Republican.

1988

The 1988 CBS exit poll indicate that Dukakis did substantially better than the Edison/Mitofsky report. They show Dukakis winning the 24 battleground state aggreagte by a solid 51.6-47.3%. But George H.W. Bush won the recorded vote by 52.3-46.8%, a substantial 9.8% Within Precinct Discrepancy, There were 68.7 million recorded votes in the battleground states (75% of the 91.6 million recorded).. Seven of the 24 states flipped to Bush from the exit polls – a total of 132 electoral votes - CA, MD, PA, MI, IL, VT and NM. A very conservative 3% margin of error was exceeded in 14 of the 24 states. Dukakis may very well have won the election. According to the Census, there were at least 10.6 million net uncounted votes (i.e. net of stuffed ballots).

Dukakis won the Roper California exit poll in a landslide (57.7-40.8%), yet Bush won the recorded vote (51.1-47.65%) – an amazing 20.4% discrepancy. He won the IL exit poll by 8% but lost by 2%. In MI, Dukakis had a 3.5% exit poll margin and lost by 8%. In MD, his 12% exit poll win morphed into a 3% defeat. In PA, he won the exit poll by less than 1% and lost by 3%. Apart from California, perhaps the most anomalous exit poll result was Texas. In his home state, Bush barely won the exit poll by 1%.; he won the count by 13%. The eleven states in which the Roper exit poll discrepancies were significantly greater than Edison-Mitofsky are noted by an asterisk.

2004

- 15 Democratic states: average 8.9 WPD. The MoE was exceeded in 11 states - all for Bush.

- 15 Battleground states: average 6.9 WPD. The MoE was exceeded in 10 states -all for Bush.

- 21 Republican states: average 3.8 WPD. The MoE was exceeded in 7 states - all for Bush.

The 3% margin of error was exceeded in a total of 28 states - all in favor of Bush. The probability is 1 in 19 trillion that the MoE would be exceeded in 16 states. Imagine what the probability is for 28 states.

Assuming a 2% MoE, the probability is even lower since the MoE was exceeded in 36 states: 34 in favor of Bush, 2 in favor of Kerry.

The distribution of the WPD in Democratic, GOP and Battleground states indicates that the GOP strategy was:

1) Pad Bush’s popular vote "mandate" by cutting Democratic margins in heavily populated BLUE states (NY, CA, CT, NJ, MD, MA, MI).

2) Steal the electoral votes in Battleground states (FL, OH, NM, CO, NV, MO, IA).

3) Pad the vote in RED states with large minority (Democratic) voting blocs (TX, MS, AL, TN, SC). Ignore the others (ND, SD, OK, MT, KY)

2008

The exit poll discrepancies (10.6 WPD) were substantially greater than in other elections. The True Vote Model (TVM) exactly matched Obama’s 58.1% aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls – a 23 million vote margin. In 45 states there was a red-shift from the exit poll to the vote in favor of McCain. The 3.0% exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 37 states, all but one for McCain. Obama’s landslide margin was much greater than the 9.5 million recorded.

This graph tells you all you need to know about the 2008 election. Obama had a 58% True Vote share – not the official recorded 53%. This is confirmed by at least 4 independent statistical measures: 1) Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 2) Unadjusted state exit polls, 3) True Vote Model and 4)10 million late (paper ballot) votes.

2008 National and State exit polls, True Vote, Late and Recorded Vote shares

http://richardcharnin.com/2008NEPUnadjustedRoper_28080_image001.gif

2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls confirm the True Vote Model

http://richardcharnin.com/2008ExiPollConfirmationTVM.htm

Graphical Comparison of Roper and Edison-Mitofsky 1988 battleground state exit polls

http://richardcharnin.com/1988RoperExit_16115_image001.gif

Roper state exit polls

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html

Edison-Mitofsky 2004 Evaluation Report

http://www.ap.org/media/pdf/EvaluationEdisonMitofsky.pdf

Tables

1. 1988-2008 Exit Poll Discrepancies

1988

2. True Vote Model and Final National Exit Poll

3. Battleground State Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

2004

4. National Exit Poll

5. True Vote Model

6. Sensitivity Analysis

7. State Recorded, Exit Poll and True Vote Shares

8. State Exit Poll Timeline

2008

9.  National Exit Poll

10. True Vote Model

11. Unadjusted State exit polls vs. Recorded vote and the True Vote

12. Unadjusted National Exit Poll vs. Final NEP

1. 1988-2008 Exit Poll Discrepancies

	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	Average
WPD	8.7	5.4	1.9	2.0	7.4	9.9	5.9
States Exceed MoE
3%	16	20	6	4	28	39	113
2%	21	30	12	15	36	44	158
15 Democratic states
	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	Total
MoE
> 3%	7	9	0	2	11	12	41
> 2%	8	13	4	4	14	12	55
Avg WPD	7.0	7.3	1.8	3.0	8.9	10.1	6.3
CA	20.4	8.5	4.7	3.8	11.6	12.4	10.2
CT	(0.4)	8.3	(4.2)	0.9	16.0	27.0	7.9
DE	1.8	7.3	1.3	7.1	15.9	12.7	7.7
DC	na	na	na	na	2.8	(0.2)	1.3
HI	0.6	na	na	na	8.2	(2.5)	2.1
IL	10.0	6.1	(1.2)	6.4	3.5	8.8	5.6
ME	6.4	5.1	4.4	2.1	4.0	9.3	5.2
MD	14.6	8.1	3.6	4.3	7.3	11.1	8.2
MA	4.4	7.1	3.3	4.3	7.7	11.6	6.4
MI	11.5	4.9	3.5	2.2	6.4	10.2	6.5
NJ	9.1	11.2	1.9	0.4	9.1	13.3	7.5
NY	10.2	4.6	(2.1)	3.3	12.2	17.5	7.6
RI	(0.2)	9.0	1.1	0.4	5.3	10.2	4.3
VT	5.4	8.6	5.0	(0.4)	15.2	8.0	7.0
WA	3.7	5.5	2.0	3.7	8.0	2.6	4.3
15 Battleground states
	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	Total
MoE
>3%	6	6	4	2	10	9	37
>2%	7	9	5	5	12	12	50
Avg WPD	4.5	5.2	3.8	0.8	6.9	9.1	5.0
CO	3.0	7.2	1.5	5.6	6.1	(3.2)	3.4
FL	14.5	5.5	0.6	0.6	7.8	3.2	5.4
IA	0.0	2.0	(0.3)	(3.0)	3.0	6.2	1.3
MN	(0.7)	6.4	(1.7)	(0.5)	9.2	15.8	4.7
MO	3.1	8.6	5.8	(1.8)	5.8	16.2	6.3
NV	10.4	(2.1)	na	6.0	9.9	2.1	5.3
NH	6.0	10.1	12.2	2.4	14.0	15.0	9.9
NM	7.6	6.3	7.0	(5.1)	8.0	4.2	4.7
NC	10.4	4.2	6.5	9.8	11.9	7.4	8.4
OH	4.5	4.4	3.1	1.0	10.6	9.7	5.6
OR	6.5	13.6	2.4	na	1.8	3.6	5.6
PA	3.0	2.0	3.6	0.8	8.4	18.2	6.0
VA	(0.6)	3.5	6.5	2.0	8.7	19.5	6.6
WI	(1.1)	2.5	2.8	(2.4)	4.8	13.7	3.4
WV	0.2	3.2	2.6	(4.5)	(5.9)	5.1	0.1
21 Republican states
	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	Total
MoE
>3%	3	5	2	0	7	18	35
>2%	6	8	3	6	10	20	53
Avg WPD	2.8	3.4	1.6	0.8	3.8	9.8	3.7
AL	na	1.2	2.4	5.5	10.0	26.6	9.1
AK	1.2	na	na	na	9.3	23.1	11.2
AZ	na	6.6	7.7	na	0.3	12.0	6.6
AR	(0.8)	7.8	(1.5)	3.2	1.3	na	2.0
GA	(1.8)	6.5	(3.3)	5.6	1.3	7.6	2.7
ID	na	0.5	3.5	(2.5)	4.0	11.2	3.3
IN	17.4	6.8	2.0	3.6	2.2	11.5	7.2
KS	3.6	3.4	3.2	4.4	1.1	8.4	4.0
KY	1.0	3.9	(1.0)	(4.4)	0.4	11.4	1.9
LA	2.4	(1.0)	(6.5)	0.6	2.6	11.6	1.6
MS	6.8	5.1	0.3	3.2	18.5	10.5	7.4
MT	4.4	(0.7)	2.4	(3.2)	(2.6)	12.7	2.2
NE	5.0	2.8	6.5	4.1	8.7	15.1	7.0
ND	1.6	4.2	2.0	(2.0)	(1.7)	(11.5)	-1.2
OK	(5.6)	4.7	(2.0)	(4.7)	(1.2)	12.7	0.6
SC	1.4	2.0	2.8	3.5	9.7	5.1	4.1
SD	1.0	(2.8)	2.3	0.9	(5.1)	8.4	0.8
TN	(1.0)	6.8	3.0	(2.2)	1.3	8.4	2.7
TX	11.9	2.8	0.6	0.4	7.6	12.5	6.0
UT	na	2.2	3.5	(1.0)	4.3	(4.2)	1.0
WY	(1.0)	5.9	3.9	1.0	7.0	2.1	3.2
Shift from Exit Poll to Recorded Vote
	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	Total
Shift to
Dem	10	4	10	14	5	5	48
GOP	36	44	37	32	46	45	240
Total	46	48	47	46	51	50	288
> 3% MoE
Dem	0	0	1	0	0	1	2
GOP	16	20	6	4	28	37	111
Total	16	20	7	4	28	38	113
> 2% MoE
To Dem	1	0	2	4	2	1	10
To GOP	20	31	10	11	34	40	146
Total	21	31	12	15	36	41	156
Shift to Dem
Battleground	3	1	2	6	1	1	14
Dem	2	0	3	1	0	2	8
GOP	5	3	5	7	4	1	25
Total	10	4	10	14	5	4	47
Shift to GOP
Battleground	12	14	12	8	14	14	74
Dem	13	13	10	12	15	13	76
GOP	12	17	15	12	17	19	92
Total	37	44	37	32	46	46	242

2. 1988 True Vote Model and Final National Exit Poll

		1988 True Vote Model					Final National Exit Poll
		(Method 3: prior exit poll)					(matched to recorded vote)
Voted 1984	Mix	Dukakis	Bush	Other		Mix	Dukakis	Bush	Other
New/DNV	11.0%	47%	52%	1%		8.4%	47%	52%	1%
Mondale	38.9%	92%	7%	1%		33.0%	92%	7%	1%
Reagan	49.6%	19%	80%	1%		58.0%	19%	80%	1%
Other	0.5%	50%	49%	1%		0.6%	50%	49%	1%
Vote Share	100%	50.6%	48.4%	1.0%		100%	45.6%	53.4%	1.0%
True Vote	102,247	51,761	49,483	1,003		91,595	41,809	48,887	899
		SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
		Dukakis True Vote Method 3
			Share of New/DNV
	Share of	45%	46%	47%	48%	49%
	Bush			Vote share
	21%	51.4%	51.5%	51.6%	51.7%	51.8%
	20%	50.9%	51.0%	51.1%	51.2%	51.3%
	19%	50.4%	50.5%	50.6%	50.7%	50.8%
	18%	49.9%	50.0%	50.1%	50.2%	50.3%
	17%	49.4%	49.5%	49.6%	49.7%	49.9%
				Margin
	21%	3,855	4,080	4,306	4,531	4,756
	20%	2,841	3,066	3,292	3,517	3,743
	19%	1,827	2,053	2,278	2,503	2,729
	18%	813	1,039	1,264	1,490	1,715
	17%	-200	25	251	476	701

3. 1988 Battleground State Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

			Total	Roper/CBS				ExitPoll				Recorded	Vote				Edison-	Mitofsky
State	EV	WPD	Recorded	Sample	Dukakis	Bush	Other	Dukakis	Bush	Other	Margin	Dukakis	Bush	Other	Margin	EV	Dukakis	Bush
IA	7	0.0%	1,226	1,784	970	788	26	54.4%	44.2%	1.5%	10.2%	54.7%	44.5%	0.8%	10.2%	-	55.0%	43.5%
FL	27	14.5%	4,302	2,025	927	1,087	11	45.8%	53.7%	0.5%	-7.9%	38.5%	60.9%	0.6%	-22.4%	-	39.7%	59.8%
CA	55	20.4%	9,887	2,368	1,366	966	36	57.7%	40.8%	1.5%	16.9%	47.6%	51.1%	1.3%	-3.5%	55	49.5%	49.0%
IN	11	17.4%	2,169	1,189	576	608	5	48.4%	51.1%	0.4%	-2.7%	39.7%	59.8%	0.5%	-20.1%	-	44.3%	55.3%
NJ	15	9.1%	3,100	1,314	619	678	17	47.1%	51.6%	1.3%	-4.5%	42.6%	56.2%	1.2%	-13.6%	-	44.7%	54.0%
WA	11	3.7%	1,865	1,121	578	520	23	51.6%	46.4%	2.1%	5.2%	50.0%	48.5%	1.5%	1.5%	-	52.8%	45.2%
MD	10	14.6%	1,714	1,158	641	506	11	55.4%	43.7%	1.0%	11.7%	48.2%	51.1%	0.7%	-2.9%	10	50.8%	48.3%
MS	6	6.8%	932	1,201	512	680	9	42.6%	56.6%	0.8%	-14.0%	39.1%	59.9%	1.0%	-20.8%	-	39.0%	60.3%
NV	5	10.4%	350	838	365	454	19	43.6%	54.2%	2.3%	-10.6%	37.9%	58.9%	3.2%	-21.0%	-	39.4%	58.3%
PA	21	3.0%	4,536	1,629	813	801	15	49.9%	49.2%	0.9%	0.7%	48.4%	50.7%	0.9%	-2.3%	21	48.8%	50.3%
NC	15	10.4%	2,134	1,500	703	791	6	46.9%	52.7%	0.4%	-5.9%	41.7%	58.0%	0.3%	-16.3%	-	41.9%	57.7%
VT	3	5.4%	243	773	386	371	16	49.9%	48.0%	2.1%	1.9%	47.6%	51.1%	1.3%	-3.5%	3	50.5%	47.5%
NM	5	7.6%	521	1,301	653	619	29	50.2%	47.6%	2.2%	2.6%	46.9%	51.9%	1.2%	-5.0%	5	50.2%	47.6%
WI	10	-1.2%	2,192	1,386	704	670	12	50.8%	48.3%	0.9%	2.5%	51.4%	47.8%	0.8%	3.6%	-	50.3%	48.8%
OR	7	6.6%	1,171	800	436	346	18	54.5%	43.3%	2.3%	11.3%	51.3%	46.6%	2.1%	4.7%	-	55.0%	42.8%
MN	9	-0.7%	2,097	1,171	613	539	19	52.4%	46.0%	1.6%	6.3%	52.9%	45.9%	1.2%	7.0%	-	52.3%	46.1%
OH	20	4.5%	4,394	1,550	722	821	7	46.6%	53.0%	0.5%	-6.4%	44.1%	55.0%	0.9%	-10.9%	-	45.0%	54.6%
TX	34	11.9%	5,427	2,004	985	1,002	17	49.2%	50.0%	0.9%	-0.9%	43.3%	56.0%	0.7%	-12.7%	-	43.0%	56.2%
MI	17	11.5%	3,669	1,550	793	738	19	51.2%	47.6%	1.2%	3.6%	45.7%	53.6%	0.7%	-7.9%	17	46.3%	52.5%
MO	11	3.1%	1,714	1,278	627	637	14	49.1%	49.8%	1.1%	-0.8%	47.9%	51.8%	0.3%	-3.9%	-	48.2%	50.8%
NY	31	10.2%	6,486	1,846	1,044	781	21	56.6%	42.3%	1.1%	14.3%	51.6%	47.5%	0.9%	4.1%	-	55.2%	43.6%
IL	21	10.0%	4,559	1,757	943	805	9	53.7%	45.8%	0.5%	7.9%	48.6%	50.7%	0.7%	-2.1%	21	49.9%	49.6%
MA	12	4.4%	2,633	1,172	647	504	21	55.2%	43.0%	1.8%	12.2%	53.2%	45.4%	1.4%	7.8%	-	56.6%	41.6%
CT	7	-0.4%	1,372	1,301	608	679	14	46.7%	52.2%	1.1%	-5.5%	46.9%	52.0%	1.1%	-5.1%	-	49.5%	49.5%
ExitPoll	370	9.76%	68,693	34,016	17,231	16,391	394	51.60%	47.31%	1.08%	4.29%	46.79%	52.26%	0.94%	-5.47%	132	48.28%	50.63%
National	Recorded	-	91,595	-	41,809	48,887	899	-	-	-	-	45.65%	53.37%	0.98%	-7.73%	-	-	-

4. Final 2004 National Exit Poll - forced to match recorded vote

Impossible 109.7% turnout of Bush 2000 voters and final vote share adjustments

National	2000	2000		2004		Vote shares			---Votes (000)---
	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other	Turnout
DNV	-	-	-	20,790	17%	54%	44%	2%	11,227	9,148	416	-
Gore	55,436	51,004	48,454	45,249	37%	90%	10%	0%	40,724	4,525	0	93.4%
Bush	51,376	50,460	47,937	52,586	43%	9%	91%	0%	4,733	47,853	0	109.7%
Other	4,160	3,953	3,756	3,669	3%	64%	14%	22%	2,348	514	807	97.7%
NEP	110,973	105,417	100,147	122,294	100.0%	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	59,031	62,039	1,223	101.4%
2000	Gore	Bush	Other	Recorded	252 EV	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	59,028	62,041	1,224	122,294

5. 2004 True Vote Model

12:22 am NEP vote shares; feasible 98% turnout of Election 2000 voters

National	2000	2000		2004		Vote Shares			---Votes (000)---
	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other	Turnout
DNV	-	-	-	22,421	17.8%	57%	41%	2%	12,780	9,193	448	-
Gore	55,997	51,004	53,197	52,133	41.5%	91%	9%	0%	47,441	4,692	0	98.0%
Bush	50,870	50,460	48,327	47,360	37.7%	10%	90%	0%	4,736	42,624	0	98.0%
Other	4,106	3,953	3,901	3,823	3.0%	64%	14%	22%	2,447	535	841	98.0%
True	110,973	105,417	105,424	125,737	100.0%	53.61%	45.37%	1.03%	67,404	57,044	1,289	98.0%
2000	Gore	Bush	Other	Recorded	252 EV	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	59,028	62,041	1,224	122,294
Recorded	48.38%	47.87%	3.75%	Discrepancy	-	5.34%	-5.36%	0.02%	8,375	(4,997)	65

6. 2004 Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis

(changes to base case)

Bush		Gore voter turnout				Share of		Kerry Share of DNV				Share of		Kerry Share of Gore				Gore		Kerry share of DNV
turnout	90%	92%	94%	96%	98%	Bush	55%	56%	57%	58%	59%	Bush	89%	90%	91%	92%	93%	turnout	55%	56%	57%	58%	59%
		Kerry Share (%)						Kerry Share (%)						Kerry Share (%)						Kerry share (%)
90%	53.9	54.2	54.5	54.8	55.1	12%	54.0	54.2	54.4	54.6	54.7	12%	53.6	54.0	54.4	54.8	55.2	98%	53.3	53.5	53.6	53.8	54.0
92%	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7	11%	53.6	53.8	54.0	54.2	54.4	11%	53.2	53.6	54.0	54.4	54.8	96%	53.0	53.2	53.3	53.5	53.7
94%	53.2	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.3	10%	53.3	53.5	53.6	53.8	54.0	10%	52.8	53.2	53.6	54.0	54.5	94%	52.7	52.9	53.1	53.2	53.4
96%	52.8	53.1	53.4	53.7	54.0	9%	52.9	53.1	53.3	53.4	53.6	9%	52.4	52.8	53.3	53.7	54.1	92%	52.4	52.6	52.8	53.0	53.2
98%	52.5	52.8	53.1	53.3	53.6	8%	52.5	52.7	52.9	53.1	53.2	8%	52.0	52.5	52.9	53.3	53.7	90%	52.1	52.3	52.5	52.7	52.9
		Kerry Margin (mil.)						Kerry Margin (mil.)						Kerry Margin (mil.)						Kerry margin (mil.)
90%	11.2	11.9	12.6	13.3	14.0	12%	11.4	11.9	12.3	12.8	13.2	12%	10.2	11.3	12.3	13.4	14.4	98%	9.5	10.0	10.4	10.9	11.3
92%	10.3	11.0	11.7	12.4	13.1	11%	10.5	10.9	11.4	11.8	12.3	11%	9.3	10.3	11.4	12.4	13.5	96%	8.8	9.3	9.7	10.2	10.7
94%	9.4	10.1	10.8	11.5	12.2	10%	9.5	10.0	10.4	10.9	11.3	10%	8.3	9.4	10.4	11.5	12.5	94%	8.0	8.5	9.0	9.5	10.0
96%	8.5	9.2	9.9	10.6	11.3	9%	8.6	9.0	9.5	9.9	10.4	9%	7.4	8.4	9.5	10.5	11.6	92%	7.3	7.8	8.3	8.8	9.3
98%	7.6	8.3	9.0	9.7	10.4	8%	7.6	8.1	8.5	9.0	9.4	8%	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.6	10.6	90%	6.6	7.1	7.6	8.2	8.7
		Kerry Electoral Vote						Kerry Electoral Vote						Kerry Electoral Vote						Kerry Electoral Vote
90%	370	370	370	380	400	12%	370	370	370	391	400	12%	370	370	370	400	400	98%	370	370	370	370	370
92%	370	370	370	370	391	11%	370	370	370	370	380	11%	370	370	370	370	400	96%	370	370	370	370	370
94%	370	370	370	370	370	10%	370	370	370	370	370	10%	357	370	370	370	370	94%	340	346	370	370	370
96%	340	370	370	370	370	9%	346	370	370	370	370	9%	340	357	370	370	370	92%	340	340	340	370	370
98%	340	340	370	370	370	8%	340	340	346	370	370	8%	340	340	346	370	370	90%	325	340	340	340	357
MoE	1.04%	0.94%	0.82%	0.68%	0.49%	MoE	1.72%	1.72%	1.72%	1.71%	1.70%	MoE	1.08%	1.04%	0.99%	0.94%	0.88%	MoE	1.72%	1.72%	1.72%	1.71%	1.70%

7. 2004 State Recorded, Exit Poll and True Vote Shares

	2004	Recorded			Exit Poll				Model				Flipped to
	Kerry	Bush	Margin	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	EV	Bush
Votes	59.03	62.04	(3.01)	252	65.34	59.20	6.14	338	67.46	57.02	10.45	370	118 EV
Share	48.27	50.73	(2.46)		51.97	47.08	4.89		53.65	45.35	8.31		10states
AL	36.8	62.5	(25.6)		41.8	57.5	(15.6)		47.2	52.1	(5.0)
AK	35.5	61.1	(25.5)		40.2	56.4	(16.2)		38.9	57.7	(18.8)
AZ	44.4	54.9	(10.5)		44.5	54.7	(10.2)		48.9	50.3	(1.4)
AR	44.5	54.3	(9.8)		45.2	53.7	(8.5)		50.3	48.5	1.8	6	6
CA	54.3	44.4	9.9	55	60.1	38.6	21.5	55	60.2	38.5	21.6	55
CO	47.0	51.7	(4.7)		50.1	48.6	1.4	9	51.8	46.9	4.8	9	9
CT	54.3	43.9	10.4	7	62.3	35.9	26.4	7	60.9	37.3	23.6	7
DE	53.3	45.8	7.6	3	61.3	37.8	23.5	3	61.7	37.4	24.2	3
DC	89.2	9.3	79.8	3	90.6	7.9	82.6	3	90.6	7.9	82.6	3
FL	47.1	52.1	(5.0)		51.0	48.2	2.8	27	52.9	46.3	6.6	27	27
GA	41.4	58.0	(16.6)		42.0	57.3	(15.3)		48.1	51.2	(3.1)
HI	54.0	45.3	8.7	4	58.1	41.2	16.9	4	60.8	38.5	22.2	4
ID	30.3	68.4	(38.1)		32.3	66.4	(34.1)		33.9	64.7	(30.8)
IL	54.8	44.5	10.3	21	56.6	42.7	13.8	21	59.9	39.4	20.5	21
IN	39.3	59.9	(20.7)		40.4	58.8	(18.5)		46.0	53.2	(7.2)
IA	49.2	49.9	(0.7)		50.7	48.4	2.3	7	51.6	47.5	4.1	7	7
KS	36.6	62.0	(25.4)		37.2	61.5	(24.3)		43.8	54.8	(11.0)
KY	39.7	59.6	(19.9)		39.9	59.4	(19.5)		43.5	55.8	(12.3)
LA	42.2	56.7	(14.5)