Super Tuesday: Strange Obama to Clinton Exit Poll Shift

 
TruthIsAll
 
Updated 2/13/08
 

Was it New Hampshire all over again?

Just like the 2004 Bush exit poll redshift, there was a Super Tuesday Hillary-shift from 14 of 16 exit polls to the recorded vote.

 

The Exit Polls

Obama led the 7pm exit polls aggregate vote share by 51.8-45.2%.

He was leading in 11 states.
The final exit poll aggregate vote share flipped to Clinton: 48.7-46.4%.

Obamaís lead was reduced to 7 states.

Fifteen states shifted to Clinton from the 7pm update to the final exit polls.

As usual, the finals were forced to match the recorded votes.

 

7PM Exit Poll to Recorded Vote Shift

Clinton won the final recorded vote: 49.2-47.9%, an 8% increase in margin from the 7pm aggregate.

Fourteen states shifted to Clinton from the unadjusted 7pm exit polls to the recorded vote.

Arkansas and Oklahoma shifted slightly to Obama. Clinton easily won both - by 42% and 24%, respectively.

Obama won 7 of the 16 states (New Mexico is a virtual tie and will be recounted).

 

The margin of error was exceeded in 7 states - all in favor of Clinton

 

Arizona: Obama led by 6%; he lost by 9%.

Massachusetts: Obama led by 3%; he lost by 15%.

New Jersey: Obama led by 5%; he lost by 10%.

Alabama: Obama led by 23%; he won by 13%.

California: Clinton led by 3%; she won by 10%.

Georgia: Obama led by 49%; he won by 36%

Illinois: Obama led by 41%; he won by 32%

 

 

The largest Clinton vote shifts were in Competitive and Strong Obama states

 

Note the states where Clinton's vote share sharply increased .

In some states, extra delegates are awarded if the winnerís vote share exceeds a given percentage.

 

Strong Obama states: AL, DE, GA, IL, UT

Obama led the exit polls by 39%. He won all 5.

But his vote margin declined sharply (- 12%) from 7pm to the recorded 27%.

The vote shift exceeded the margin of error for Clinton in 3 states.

 

Strong Clinton states: AR, NY, OK, TN

Clinton led the polls by 18%. She won all 4.

Her vote margin rose slightly (2%) from 7pm to the recorded 20%.

Competitive states: AZ, CA, CT, MA, MO, NJ, NM

Obama led the polls by 0.7%. He was leading in every state except CA.

But Clinton won 4 of the 7 states (NM is still undecided).

Her vote margin increased sharply (9.4%) from 7pm to the recorded 8.7%.

The vote shift exceeded the margin of error for Clinton in 4 states.

 

The Probability is...

One in 40 (.025) that the exit poll discrepancy in favor of Clinton would exceed the margin of error in any given state.

 

One in 22,000 that the aggregate vote share would exceed the 7pm exit poll share by 4% (2.0% MoE).

=1 / NORMDIST (.4518, 4918, 2.0/1.96, TRUE)

 

One in 17 million that the vote share discrepancy would exceed the margin of error in at least 7 of 16 states.

=1 / (1-BINOMDIST (6, 16, 0.025, TRUE))

 

 

†††††††††††

 

7PM

 

 

 

 

Final

 

 

Recorded

 

 

 

 

 

†††††††††††

MoE

Obama

Clinton

Margin

 

Obama

Clinton

Margin

 

Obama

Clinton

Margin

Chg7pm

>MoE

WtdAvg

2.77

51.8

45.2

6.6

 

46.4

48.7

-2.3

 

47.9

49.2

-1.3

-8.0

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AL

3.2

59.6

37.0

22.6

 

54.1

41.2

12.9

 

56.2

41.8

14.5

-8.1††††

yes

AR

3.1

25.5

71.2

-45.7

 

22.8

72.8

-50.0

 

27.3

70.0

-42.7

3.0

 

AZ

2.9

50.5

44.8

5.7

 

43.0

49.2

-6.2

 

42.7

51.8

-9.1

-14.8

yes

CA

2.3

46.3

49.6

-3.3

 

39.4

52.7

-13.3

 

42.9

52.8

-9.8

-6.5

yes

CT

2.9

52.2

45.0

7.2

 

50.7

46.9

3.9

 

51.1

47.0

4.1

-3.1

 

 

DE

3.7

55.6

41.9

13.7

 

53.8

42.2

11.6

 

53.3

42.5

10.8

-2.9

 

GA

3.0

74.5

25.5

49.0

 

64.9

32.8

32.1

 

66.9

31.4

35.6

-13.4

yes

IL

2.9

69.6

29.1

40.5

 

65.2

32.5

32.7

 

64.8

33.2

31.6

-8.9

yes

MA

2.7

49.8

47.3

2.5

 

41.5

56.1

-14.7

 

41.2

56.6

-15.3

-17.8

yes

MO

3.1

49.8

45.1

4.7

 

49.0

47.6

1.4

 

49.4

48.0

1.4

-3.3

 

 

NJ

2.7

52.2

47.0

5.2

 

43.2

53.8

-10.6

 

44.4

54.3

-9.9

-15.1

yes

NM

3.3

51.8

45.6

6.2

 

49.6

43.5

6.2

 

48.9

49.0

-0.1

-6.3

 

NY

2.7

42.2

55.6

-13.4

 

39.8

57.0

-17.2

 

40.6

58.3

-17.7

-4.3

 

OK

4.6

30.4

60.5

-30.1

 

31.4

54.5

-23.1

 

32.4

56.9

-24.5

5.6

 

TN

2.7

41.1

51.6

-10.5

 

38.3

52.3

-14.0

 

40.9

54.1

-13.3

-2.8

 

UT

4.8

60.1

39.9

20.2

 

58.6

39.5

19.1

 

57.4

39.7

17.7

-2.5

 

 


Probability of Deviations from the 7pm Exit Poll to Recorded Vote
 
Primary†† Margin Obama Prob.††  ClintonProb.
State††† of Error†† Dev††  1 in†††  Dev††††  1 in
 
Total††† 2.00†††† -3.96†††  19463††† 4.00††  22214 
†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† 

AL†††† 3.15 ††† -3.4††††† 54 ††† ††4.8†† 670

AR†††††† 3.09††††  1.8††††  1.1 ††† -1.2††††  1.3 
AZ†††††† 2.85†††† -7.8††††  24 mil  7.0††††  1.4 mil 
CA†††††† 2.26†††† -3.4††††  602 ††† 3.2††††  320 
CT†††††† 2.86†††† -1.1††††  4 ††††† 2.0††††  13 
DE†††††† 3.73†††† -2.3††††  9 ††††† 0.6††††  2.6 
GA†††††† 3.01†††† -8.1††††  13 mil†† 5.4†††  4081 
IL†††††† 2.95†††† -4.8††††  1282†††  4.1††††  315 
MA†††††† 2.65†††† -8.6††††  8 bil††  9.3††††  251 bil 
MO†††††† 3.09†††† -0.4††††  3 ††††† 2.9††††  30 
NJ†††††† 2.72†††† -7.8††††  116 mil  7.3††††  15 mil 
NM†††††† 3.26†††† -2.9††††  25 †††† 3.4††††  49 
NY†††††† 2.66†††† -1.6††††  9 ††††† 2.7††††  44 
OK†††††† 4.65††††  2.0††††  1.2 ††† -3.6††††  1.1 
TN†††††† 2.69†††† -0.2††††  2.3 ††† 2.5††††  31 
UT†††††† 4.84†††† -2.7††††  7 ††††† -0.2††††  1.9 



 

Gender Demographic Vote Shares

7pm Exit Polls†††††††††††††††††††† 11pm CNN Final
††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† Mix††† HRC††† JE†††† BO††††
AL††††††††††† †††††††††††† Male†† 41%††† 40%††† 3%†††† 57%†††
966††† HRC††† BO††††††††††† Fem††† 59%††† 42%††† 2%†††† 52%†††
resp.37†††† 60†††††††††††††††††††††††† 41.2%2.4%†† 54.1%
†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††

AR†††††††† ††††††††† †††††††Male†† 40%††† 68%††† 1%†††† 27%†††
1008†† HRC††† BO††††††††††† Fem††† 60%††† 76%††† 3%†††† 20%†††
†††††† 71†††† 25†††††††††††††††††††††††† 72.8%2.2%†† 22.8%

 

 

AZ†††††††††††††††††††††††† Male†† 38%††† 43%††† 6%†††† 48%†††
1182†††††††††††††††††††††† Fem††† 62%††† 53%††† 5%†††† 40%†††
†††††† 45†††† 51†††††††††††††††††††††††† 49.2%5.4%†† 43.0%

 

CA†††††††††††††††††††††††† Male†† 45%††† 45%††† 6%†††† 46%†††

1879†††††††††††††††††††††† Fem††† 55%††† 59%††† 6%†††† 34%†††

†††††† 46†††† 50†††††††††††††††††† ††††† 52.7%†† 6.0%†† 39.4%


†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††
CT†††††††††††††††††††††††† Male†† 41%††† 38%††† 1%†††† 59%†††
1178†††††††††††††††††††††† Fem††† 59%††† 53%††† 1%†††† 45%†††
†††††† 45†††† 52†††††††††††††††††††††††† 46.9%1.0%†† 50.7%
†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††
DE†††††††††††††††††††††††† Male†† 40%††† 38%††† 4%†††† 58%†††
690††††††††††††††††††††††† Fem††† 60%††† 45%††† 2%†† ††51%†††
†††††† 42†††† 56†††††††††††††††††††††††† 42.2%2.8%†† 53.8%
†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††
GA†††††††††††††††††††††††† Male†† 37%††† 29%††† 3%†††† 68%†††
1060†††††††††††††††††††††† Fem††† 63%††† 35%††† 1%†††† 63%†††
†††††† 26†††† 75†††††††††††††††††††††††† 32.8%1.7%†† 64.9%
†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††
IL†††††††††††††††††††††††† Male†† 42%††† 29%††† 3%†††† 67%†††
1107†††††††††††††††††††††† Fem††† 58%††† 35%††† 1%†††† 64%†††
†††††† 29†††† 70†††††††††††††††††††††††† 32.5%1.8%†† 65.2%
†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††
MA†††††††††††††††††††††††† Male†† 42%††† 48%††† 1%†††† 49%†††
1365†††††††††††††††††††††† Fem††† 58%††† 62%††† 1%†††† 36%†††
†††††† 47†††† 50†††††††††††††††††††††††† 56.1%1.0%†† 41.5%
†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††
MO†††††††††††††††††††††††† Male†† 44%††† 47%††† 2%†††† 49%†††
1005†††††††††††††††††††††† Fem††† 56%††† 48%††† 2%†††† 49%†††
†††††† 45†††† 50†††††††††††††††††††††††† 47.6%2%†††† 49%†††
†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††
NJ†††††††††††††††††††††††† Male†† 42%††† 48%††† 1%†††† 49%†††
1298†††††††††††††††††††††† Fem††† 58%††† 58%††† 2%†††† 39%†††
†††††† 47†††† 52†††††††††††††††††††††††† 53.8%1.6%†† 43.2%
†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††
NM††††††††††† ††††††††††††† Male†† 44%††† 39%††† 2%†††† 53%†††
905††††††††††††††††††††††† Fem††† 56%††† 47%††† 1%†††† 47%†††
†††††† 46†††† 52†††††††††††††††††††††††† 43.5%1.4%†† 49.6%
†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††
NY†††††††††††††††††††††††† Male†† 42%††† 50%††† 2%†††† 45%†††
1361†††††††††††††††††††††† Fem††† 58%††† 62%††† 1%†††† 36%†††
†††††† 56†††† 42†††††††††††††††††††††††† 57.0%1.4%†† 39.8%
†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††
OK†††††††††††††††††††††††† Male†† 47%††† 55%††† 9%†††† 33%†††
445††††††††††††††††††††††† Fem††† 53%††† 54%††† 11%††† 30%†††
†††††† 61†††† 30†††††††††††††††††††††††† 54.5%10.1%31.4%
†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††
†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††
TN†††††††††††††††††††††††† Male†† 41%††† 47%††† 8%†††† 43%†††
1326†††††††††††††††††††††† Fem††† 59%††† 56%††† 4%†††† 35%†††
†††††† 52†††† 41†††††††††††††††††††††††† 52.3%5.6%†† 38.3%
†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††
UT†††††††††††††††††††††††† Male†† 43%††† 27%††† 1%†††† 70%†††
410††††††††††††††††††††††† Fem††† 57%††† 49%††† 1%†††† 50%†††
†††††† 40†††† 60†††††††††††††††††††††††† 39.5%1.0%†† 58.6%
††††††