Swing vs. Red-shift: Hoisted on its own Petard

 

TruthIsAll

 

Aug. 5, 2009

 

The exit poll naysayers claim that since there was virtually zero correlation between swing (change in Bush vote share from 2000 to 2004) and red-shift (exit poll discrepancies), it indicates there was little if any fraud in 2004. The claim is based on the false premise that the 2000 recorded vote was the True Vote.

 

According to the Census, in 2000 there were 5.4 million net uncounted votes(over 180,000 in Florida). Net uncounted votes is equal to uncounted ballots less stuffed ballots, therefore there had to be more than 5.4m uncounted ballots. Approximately 70-90% were Gore voters (over half of the uncounted ballots were in minority districts). As for the stuffed ballots, ask the question: Que bene?

 

Lindeman created this scatter chart based on precinct exit poll data. The near-zero slope regression line indicates a near-zero correlation. Exit pollster Mitofsky declared that it effectively "kills the fraud" argument. But the chart is misleading. The regression is based on 2000-2004 recorded vote swing. By not basing swing on the True Vote (i.e. total votes cast), the correlation as depicted in the chart serves only to mask the fraud.

 

In fact, there was a strong negative correlation when the True Vote was used. The correlation between True vote swing and recorded red-shift is -0.44! View the regression line slope in the True Vote Swing (x) vs. Recorded red-shift graph.

 

But there does not have to be a direct correlation for fraud to have occurred. Kathy Dopp of U.S. Count Votes provided a logical proof.

 

Raw exit poll precinct data has never been made public. But we have the state-aggregate unadjusted exit polls (average precinct WPE). For the 50 states and DC, national aggregate Bush Vote Swing was 2.86%. The aggregate unadjusted exit poll Red-shift was 3.72%.

In Florida True Vote Swing was -0.50% and Red-shift 3.9%.

 

Correlation Summary

TSW vs TRS: -0.34 True swing vs. True red-shift

RSW vs TRS: -0.56 Recorded swing vs. True red-shift

RSW vs RRS: -0.05 Recorded swing vs. Recorded red-shift (Lindeman graph)

RRS vs TSW: -0.44 True swing vs. Recorded red-shift (TIA graph)

 

Is it just coincidental that of the four correlations, the only one near zero is Recorded vote Swing vs. Red-shift?

 

Quere mas?

 

Let's review the primary naysayer arguments used to disparage the 2004 exit polls:

 

1) The (R)eluctant (B)ush (R)esponder hypothesis was initially floated by the exit pollsters (without a shred of evidence) to explain the massive exit poll discrepancies. Mitofsky indicated there was a 56/50 Kerry/Bush exit poll response ratio (he never considered that the ratio actually reflected the True Vote).

But the Final National Exit Poll needed a 43/37 returning Bush/Gore vote split to match the recorded vote. It was a Hobsonís choice.

 

2) The Final 2004 National Exit Poll matched the recorded vote.

But the Final was impossible. Therefore, the recorded vote had to be impossible as well. Proof: forcing the match required 6 million phantom Bush voters. Returning Bush voters had to outnumber Gore voters by 7 million. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000 and there were nearly 6 million uncounted and stuffed ballots, therefore he must have won the True Vote by approximately 3 million.

 

3) Bush must have won 55% of exit poll non-responders.

But the lowest exit poll response rates were in Democratic strongholds.

 

4) Near-zero Swing and Red-shift correlation is a "no fraud" indicator.

But they use the recorded vote as the basis for calculating swing. There were 5.4 million net uncounted votes in 2000 and 3.4 million in 2004.

 

5) False Recall explained the 43/37 the returning Bush/Gore voter mix in the Final National Exit Poll.

But False Recall was based on the recorded vote. When total Votes cast (i.e. the True Vote) is used as a baseline, the 1968-2008 average deviations indicated that those surveyed correctly recalled past votes.

 

Bush recorded and True 2000/2004 state vote shares and 2004 unadjusted exit poll

 

Bush's True Vote share declined in 34 states from 2000 to 2004. But 46 states red-shifted to Bush (34 beyond the 2% MoE). Only 5 states blue-shifted to Kerry: ND, MT, OK, SD, WV (2 beyond the 2% MoE),

 

* exceeds 2% MoE

 

††††††††††††††† Recorded Vote††††††† ††† True Vote †††††††††† Exit Poll True††††††† Recorded††† True††††† Recorded

††††††††††††††† 2004††††††† 2000††††††† 2004††††††† 2000††††††† 2004††††††† Swing††††††† Swing††††† RedShift†† RedShift

 

Total†††††† 62,041†††† 50,460†††† 57,030†††† 50,932†††† 52,100†††† 6,097†††††† 11,581†††† 4,930†††††† 9,941

††††††††††††††† 50.73%††† 47.87%††† 45.36%††† 45.96%††† 47.0%††††† -0.60%†††† 2.86%††††† -1.65%†††† 3.72%

 

AL†††††††††† 62.5%††††† 56.5%††††† 52.5%††††† 52.7%††††† 57.5%††††† -0.26%†††† 5.99%††††† -5.00%†††† 5.00%*

AK†††††††††† 61.1%††††† 58.6%††††† 58.5%††††† 65.2%††††† 56.4%††††† -6.68%†††† 2.44%††††† 2.10%††††† 4.65%*

AZ†††††††††† 54.9%††††† 51.0%††††† 47.8%††††† 49.9%††††† 54.7%††††† -2.11%†††† 3.92%††††† -6.92%†††† 0.15%

AR†††††††††† 54.3%††††† 51.3%††††† 49.2%††††† 44.6%††††† 53.7%††††† 4.63%††††† 3.00%††††† -4.43%†††† 0.65%

CA†††††††††† 44.4%††††† 41.7%††††† 39.7%††††† 42.1%††††† 38.6%††††† -2.48%†††† 2.71%††††† 1.09%††††† 5.80%*

†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††

CO†††††††††† 51.7%††††† 50.8%††††† 46.8%††††† 51.4%††††† 48.6%††††† -4.65%†††† 0.94%††††† -1.89%†††† 3.05%*

CT†††††††††† 43.9%††††† 38.4%††††† 34.9%††††† 40.8%††††† 35.9%††††† -5.87%†††† 5.50%††††† -1.02%†††† 8.00%*

DE†††††††††† 45.8%††††† 41.9%††††† 39.8%††††† 40.3%††††† 37.8%††††† -0.54%†††† 3.85%††††† 1.96%††††† 7.95%*

DC†††††††††† 9.3%††††††† 9.0%††††††† 8.7%††††††† 9.5%††††††† 7.9%††††††† -0.77%†††† 0.39%††††† 0.74%††††† 1.40%

FL††††††††††† 52.1%††††† 48.8%††††† 46.8%††††† 47.3%††††† 48.2%††††† -0.50%†††† 3.25%††††† -1.37%†††† 3.90%*

†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††

GA†††††††††† 58.0%††††† 54.7%††††† 51.1%††††† 50.4%††††† 57.3%††††† 0.70%††††† 3.30%††††† -6.18%†††† 0.65%

HI††††††††††† 45.3%††††† 37.5%††††† 34.9%††††† 38.4%††††† 41.2%††††† -3.49%†††† 7.80%††††† -6.22%†††† 4.10%*

ID††††††††††† 68.4%††††† 67.2%††††† 65.5%††††† 65.1%††††† 66.4%††††† 0.32%††††† 1.21%††††† -0.92%†††† 2.00%*

IL††††††††††† 44.5%††††† 42.6%††††† 39.8%††††† 40.3%††††† 42.7%††††† -0.56%†††† 1.89%††††† -2.96%†††† 1.75%

IN††††††††††† 59.9%††††† 56.6%††††† 52.1%††††† 53.1%††††† 58.8%††††† -0.99%†††† 3.30%††††† -6.78%†††† 1.10%

†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††

IA††††††††††† 49.9%††††† 48.2%††††† 45.8%††††† 46.0%††††† 48.4%††††† -0.18%†††† 1.68%††††† -2.59%†††† 1.50%

KS††††††††††† 62.0%††††† 58.0%††††† 56.1%††††† 60.1%††††† 61.5%††††† -4.00%†††† 3.96%††††† -5.40%†††† 0.55%

KY†††††††††† 59.6%††††† 56.5%††††† 53.3%††††† 51.1%††††† 59.4%††††† 2.24%††††† 3.05%††††† -6.05%†††† 0.20%

LA†††††††††† 56.7%††††† 52.6%††††† 48.9%††††† 46.7%††††† 55.4%††††† 2.23%††††† 4.17%††††† -6.49%†††† 1.30%

ME††††††††† 44.6%††††† 44.0%††††† 41.8%††††† 41.7%††††† 42.6%††††† 0.05%††††† 0.60%††††† -0.79%†††† 2.00%*

†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††

MD††††††††† 42.9%††††† 40.2%††††† 37.8%††††† 39.6%††††† 39.3%††††† -1.83%†††† 2.76%††††† -1.50%†††† 3.65%*

MA††††††††† 36.8%††††† 32.5%††††† 31.4%††††† 33.6%††††† 32.9%††††† -2.24%†††† 4.28%††††† -1.56%†††† 3.85%*

MI†††††††††† 47.8%††††† 46.1%††††† 43.9%††††† 43.6%††††† 44.6%††††† 0.24%††††† 1.67%††††† -0.75%†††† 3.20%*

MN††††††††† 47.6%††††† 45.5%††††† 43.0%††††† 44.2%††††† 43.0%††††† -1.26%†††† 2.11%††††† -0.04%†††† 4.60%*

MS†††††††††† 59.4%††††† 57.6%††††† 51.4%††††† 51.7%††††† 50.2%††††† -0.31%†††† 1.83%††††† 1.17%††††† 9.25%*

†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††

MO††††††††† 53.3%††††† 50.4%††††† 46.7%††††† 46.7%††††† 50.4%††††† 0.05%††††† 2.87%††††† -3.67%†††† 2.90%*

MT††††††††† 59.1%††††† 58.4%††††† 57.0%††††† 56.2%††††† 60.4%††††† 0.73%††††† 0.63%††††† -3.39%†††† -1.30%

NE†††††††††† 65.9%††††† 62.2%††††† 61.1%††††† 61.7%††††† 61.5%††††† -0.60%†††† 3.65%††††† -0.47%†††† 4.35%*

NV†††††††††† 50.5%††††† 49.5%††††† 45.8%††††† 47.2%††††† 45.5%††††† -1.34%†††† 0.95%††††† 0.32%††††† 4.95%*

NH†††††††††† 48.9%††††† 48.1%††††† 45.6%††††† 46.8%††††† 41.9%††††† -1.15%†††† 0.80%††††† 3.74%††††† 7.00%*

†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††

NJ††††††††††† 46.2%††††† 40.3%††††† 39.1%††††† 40.0%††††† 41.7%††††† -0.98%†††† 5.95%††††† -2.63%†††† 4.55%*

NM††††††††† 49.8%††††† 47.8%††††† 44.2%††††† 46.1%††††† 45.8%††††† -1.89%†††† 1.99%††††† -1.62%†††† 4.00%*

NY†††††††††† 40.1%††††† 35.2%††††† 34.3%††††† 34.5%††††† 34.0%††††† -0.13%†††† 4.86%††††† 0.36%††††† 6.10%*

NC†††††††††† 56.0%††††† 56.0%††††† 52.1%††††† 51.4%††††† 50.1%††††† 0.67%††††† -0.01%†††† 1.99%††††† 5.95%*

ND†††††††††† 62.9%††††† 60.7%††††† 57.9%††††† 56.7%††††† 63.7%††††† 1.20%††††† 2.21%††††† -5.80%†††† -0.85%

†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††

OH†††††††††† 50.8%††††† 50.0%††††† 47.2%††††† 47.9%††††† 45.5%††††† -0.79%†††† 0.85%††††† 1.64%††††† 5.30%*

OK†††††††††† 65.6%††††† 60.3%††††† 55.6%††††† 54.3%††††† 66.2%††††† 1.26%††††† 5.26%††††† -10.58%†† -0.60%

OR†††††††††† 47.2%††††† 46.5%††††† 43.9%††††† 46.9%††††† 46.3%††††† -2.96%†††† 0.67%††††† -2.37%†††† 0.90%

PA†††††††††† 48.4%††††† 46.4%††††† 44.1%††††† 44.7%††††† 44.2%††††† -0.68%†††† 1.99%††††† -0.17%†††† 4.20%*

RI††††††††††† 38.7%††††† 31.9%††††† 31.5%††††† 31.8%††††† 36.0%††††† -0.29%†††† 6.76%††††† -4.52%†††† 2.65%*

†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††

SC††††††††††† 58.0%††††† 56.8%††††† 50.0%††††† 50.6%††††† 53.1%††††† -0.60%†††† 1.15%††††† -3.13%†††† 4.85%*

SD††††††††††† 59.9%††††† 60.3%††††† 57.1%††††† 55.5%††††† 62.5%††††† 1.58%††††† -0.39%†††† -5.38%†††† -2.55%

TN†††††††††† 56.8%††††† 51.1%††††† 49.6%††††† 48.1%††††† 56.1%††††† 1.42%††††† 5.65%††††† -6.60%†††† 0.65%

TX†††††††††† 61.1%††††† 59.3%††††† 55.2%††††† 54.2%††††† 57.3%††††† 0.96%††††† 1.79%††††† -2.13%†††† 3.80%*

UT†††††††††† 71.5%††††† 66.8%††††† 64.7%††††† 65.2%††††† 69.4%††††† -0.46%†††† 4.71%††††† -4.66%†††† 2.15%*

†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††

VT†††††††††† 38.8%††††† 40.7%††††† 37.9%††††† 41.0%††††† 31.2%††††† -3.11%†††† -1.90%†††† 6.69%††††† 7.60%*

VA†††††††††† 53.7%††††† 52.5%††††† 49.1%††††† 49.9%††††† 49.3%††††† -0.74%†††† 1.21%††††† -0.19%†††† 4.35%*

WA††††††††† 45.6%††††† 44.6%††††† 42.5%††††† 43.8%††††† 41.6%††††† -1.30%†††† 1.09%††††† 0.87%††††† 4.00%*

WV††††††††† 56.1%††††† 51.9%††††† 48.4%††††† 44.7%††††† 59.0%††††† 3.75%††††† 4.15%††††† -10.61%†† -2.95%

WI†††††††††† 49.3%††††† 47.6%††††† 45.5%††††† 45.7%††††† 46.9%††††† -0.14%†††† 1.71%††††† -1.39%†††† 2.40%*

WY††††††††† 68.9%††††† 67.8%††††† 66.4%††††† 61.5%††††† 65.4%††††† 4.90%††††† 1.11%††††† 1.07%††††† 3.50%*