Swing vs. Exit Poll Red-Shift: Killing the “No Fraud” Argument
Nov. 2, 2011
In the 1988-2008 presidential
elections, the Democrats did nearly 3% better in unadjusted exit polls than in
the recorded vote. The discrepancies were due to a combination of uncounted
votes and electronic vote switching. The uncounted rate trend has declined, but
electronic vote switching has more than taken up the slack.
The exit pollster's initial
explanation for the 2004 discrepancies was that non-response bias skewed the
exit polls.The so-called reluctant Bush responder (rBr) was rebutted. So they came up with a new one: Swing
vs. Red shift: The claim was that the
near-zero correlation between Swing (change in vote share from 2000 to 2004)
and Red shift (the 2004 exit poll discrepancy) “kills the fraud argument”.
They provided as evidence a scatterchart
of Swing vs. Red-shift in the 1250 exit poll precincts: The flat
regression-line indicated that there was no correlation between swing and
red-shift. In other words, no relationship meant there was no fraud.
But there was a problem with
the data. It reflected the recorded vote - not the True Vote (based on votes
cast). The pollsters used bogus recorded vote data to prove that there was no
fraud - a circular argument if there ever was one. The implicit
assumption was that the recorded vote reflected the True Vote - but
the
In fact, Edison-Mitofsky
themselves refuted their
“no-slope, no fraud” argument in the 2004 Exit Poll Evaluation Report. A state exit poll WPE correlation analysis
showed a relatively
high 0.48 correlation for 2000-2004. Conversely, the correlation was a much
lower 0.05 for 1996-2000. It was 0.15 for 1992-1996 and 0.29 for
1988-1992. If anything, the analysis shows that the 1992 and 2004
elections (Bush Sr. and Jr. were
incumbents) were fraudulent, while 1996 and 2000 (Clinton was the
incumbent) were fair.
|
Correlation |
2000 |
1996 |
1992 |
1988 |
|
2004 |
0.48 |
0.19 |
0.35 |
0.30 |
|
2000 |
- |
0.05 |
0.12 |
0.23 |
|
1996 |
- |
- |
0.15 |
0.26 |
|
1992 |
- |
- |
- |
0.29 |
When unadjusted state exit
polls are used as a proxy for the True Vote, there is a strong positive swing/red-shift
correlation. True Vote Swing/ Red-shift correlation is much stronger than the
corresponding Recorded Vote correlation (the regression line slope is much
steeper). The average absolute True Vote correlation was 0.33 higher than the
Recorded Vote correlation. In every election since 1992, the swing/red-shift
correlation (based on exit poll swing) was significantly higher than the corresponding
recorded vote swing correlation.
To use a fraudulent recorded
vote as the basis for calculating swing and then claim that the near-zero
correlation “kills the fraud argument” is a logical fallacy. Elections can be fraudulent or fraud-free
regardless of the correlation. In 2000, the exit poll discrepancy (2.0 WPD) was
much lower than in 2004 (7.4WPD) yet the correlation ratios were significantly higher.The aim was to convince the public that the 2004
election was fraud-free. It was just one example of an ongoing media disinformation
campaign to cast doubt on the state and national exit polls which indicated
that Kerry won easily by a 52-47% margin.
The scatter graphs below
kill the naysayer 2004 Swing/ Red shift “no slope, no fraud” canard.
The Swing Redshift 1992-2004 graph
displays True and recorded Vote Swing and Red shift (based on 238 state exit
polls) for the 1992-2004 elections. The 0.39 True Vote Swing/Red shift
correlation is significantly higher than the near-zero 0.05 recorded
correlation. The flat recorded vote regression is partly due to 40 million
uncounted votes. But millions of votes were also switched in cyberspace. Recorded
state swing/red shift regression lines were flat in both 2004 (7.4 WPD) and
1996 (1.9 WPD). On the contrary, in 2000 (2.0 WPD) the regression line was
steep – refuting the basic premise of the exit pollster argument.
The following graphs display
the State Recorded and True Vote share Swing vs. the unadjusted Exit Poll Red
shift (i.e. WPD):
Swing Redshift 1992 Swing Redshift 1996 Swing Redshift 2000 Swing Redshift 2004 Swing Redshift 2008
1992 - The correlations were
0.21 for the recorded vote and 0.40 for the True Vote. There were nearly 10
million uncounted votes. The WPD was 5.4.
1996 - The recorded vote
correlation was nearly zero (.02). The True Vote correlation was 0.43 and the
WPD was a low 1.9. There were nearly 10 million uncounted votes.
2000 - Exit poll
discrepancies (2.0 WPD) were lower than in 2004, but the recorded vote
correlation was higher. There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes.
2004 - The recorded vote correlation
was 0.11, True Vote correlation 0.56 and a 7.4 WPD. There were close to 4
million uncounted votes. The Battleground state recorded vote correlation was
0.45 and near zero in Democratic and Republican states. Exit poll discrepancies
in Democratic states were higher than in the Battleground states.
2008 - The regression lines
diverged. The correlation ratios were -0.38 for the recorded vote and. 0.42 for
the True Vote. The WPD was a massive 10.3.
View the graphs by
partisanship state groupings: Battleground
Democratic Republican
False Recall was the final naysayer argument promoted to explain
the impossible number of returning Bush voters implied by the Final National
Exit Poll. Once again, the recorded vote was used as the baseline, rather than
total votes cast. Uncounted votes and the True Vote were ignored.
Unfortunately, the National
Election Pool consortium has never released unadjusted precinct exit poll data.
The transparent claim is the need for exit poll respondent confidentiality. Of
course, they could release the data without providing personal information if
they wanted to. In their 2004 report, the pollsters did provide average state
exit poll WPD data for all elections since 1988. That report provided more than
enough historical information to hoist the NEP, the pollsters and the naysayers
on their own petard.
Political scientists in the
media and academia should consider this simple equation:
Recorded vote share = True Vote + Fraud
component
It is analogous to the
accounting identity: Total Assets= Liabilities + Equity
Total Voting Assets = True Vote Equity
+ Fraudulent Vote Liabilities
|
|
Votes
(millions) |
|
|
Recorded |
Exit
Poll |
|
||
|
|
Total |
Dem |
Rep |
Other |
Dem |
Rep |
Dem |
Rep |
|
Avg |
108.7 |
52.3 |
49.9 |
6.4 |
47.9% |
46.1% |
50.76% |
43.10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 |
132.3 |
69.5 |
59.9 |
2.0 |
52.9% |
46.5% |
57.96% |
40.47% |
|
2004 |
122.3 |
59.0 |
62.0 |
1.2 |
48.3% |
50.7% |
51.97% |
47.03% |
|
2000 |
105.4 |
51.0 |
50.5 |
4.0 |
48.4% |
47.9% |
49.40% |
46.90% |
|
1996 |
96.3 |
47.4 |
39.2 |
9.7 |
49.2% |
40.7% |
50.20% |
39.80% |
|
1992 |
104.4 |
44.9 |
39.1 |
20.4 |
43.0% |
37.4% |
45.70% |
34.70% |
|
1988 |
91.6 |
41.8 |
48.9 |
0.9 |
45.6% |
53.4% |
49.33% |
49.69% |
1992-2008 State Recorded and True Vote (Exit Poll) Swing vs.
Red-shift (WPD)
|
|
2004 |
|
|
|
2000 |
|
|
|
1996 |
|
|
|
1992 |
|
|
|
2008 |
|
|
|
|
Red-shift |
Recorded |
Exit Poll |
|
Red-shift |
Recorded |
Exit Poll |
|
Red-shift |
Recorded |
Exit Poll |
|
Red-shift |
Recorded |
Exit Poll |
|
Red-shift |
Recorded |
Exit Poll |
|
|
WPD |
Swing |
Swing |
|
WPD |
Swing |
Swing |
|
WPD |
Swing |
Swing |
|
WPD |
Swing |
Swing |
|
WPD |
Swing |
Swing |
|
Average |
7.40 |
0.51% |
2.97% |
|
2.01 |
-1.96% |
-2.31% |
|
1.93 |
6.05% |
4.62% |
|
5.40 |
-3.10% |
-1.66% |
|
9.88 |
4.78% |
6.57% |
|
Correlation |
|
0.11 |
0.56 |
|
|
0.38 |
0.66 |
|
|
0.02 |
0.41 |
|
|
0.21 |
0.40 |
|
|
-0.38 |
0.42 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.0 |
-4.7% |
-2.5% |
|
5.5 |
-1.6% |
-0.02% |
|
2.4 |
2.3% |
2.9% |
|
1.2 |
1.0% |
1.6% |
|
26.6 |
1.9% |
10.2% |
|
AK |
9.3 |
7.9% |
12.5% |
|
na |
na |
na |
|
na |
na |
na |
|
na |
na |
na |
|
23.1 |
2.4% |
8.9% |
|
AZ |
0.3 |
-0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
na |
na |
na |
|
7.7 |
10.0% |
10.5% |
|
6.6 |
-2.2% |
1.1% |
|
12 |
0.5% |
6.9% |
|
AR |
1.3 |
-1.3% |
-2.3% |
|
3.2 |
-7.9% |
-5.5% |
|
-1.5 |
0.5% |
-4.1% |
|
7.8 |
11.0% |
15.3% |
|
22.7 |
-5.7% |
5.0% |
|
CA |
11.6 |
0.9% |
4.8% |
|
3.8 |
2.4% |
1.9% |
|
4.7 |
5.1% |
3.2% |
|
8.5 |
-1.6% |
0.8% |
|
12.4 |
6.6% |
6.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CO |
6.1 |
4.6% |
4.9% |
|
5.6 |
-2.0% |
0.0% |
|
1.5 |
4.3% |
1.4% |
|
7.2 |
-5.2% |
-3.1% |
|
-3.2 |
6.6% |
1.8% |
|
CT |
16.0 |
-1.6% |
6.0% |
|
0.9 |
3.1% |
5.6% |
|
-4.2 |
10.6% |
4.4% |
|
8.3 |
-4.7% |
-3.1% |
|
27 |
6.3% |
11.1% |
|
DE |
15.9 |
-1.6% |
2.8% |
|
7.1 |
3.1% |
6.0% |
|
1.3 |
8.3% |
5.3% |
|
7.3 |
0.0% |
2.8% |
|
12.7 |
8.6% |
7.3% |
|
DC |
2.8 |
4.0% |
5.4% |
|
na |
na |
na |
|
na |
na |
na |
|
na |
na |
na |
|
-0.2 |
3.3% |
1.4% |
|
FL |
7.8 |
-1.7% |
1.9% |
|
0.6 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
0.6 |
9.0% |
6.6% |
|
5.5 |
0.5% |
2.0% |
|
3.2 |
3.8% |
1.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GA |
1.3 |
-1.6% |
-3.8% |
|
5.6 |
-2.9% |
1.6% |
|
-3.3 |
2.4% |
-2.5% |
|
6.5 |
4.0% |
8.1% |
|
7.6 |
5.5% |
9.1% |
|
HI |
8.2 |
-1.8% |
2.3% |
|
na |
na |
na |
|
na |
na |
na |
|
na |
na |
na |
|
-2.5 |
17.8% |
12.3% |
|
ID |
4.0 |
2.6% |
5.9% |
|
-2.5 |
-6.0% |
-9.0% |
|
3.5 |
5.2% |
6.7% |
|
0.5 |
-7.6% |
-7.3% |
|
11.2 |
5.7% |
9.5% |
|
IL |
3.5 |
0.2% |
-1.2% |
|
6.4 |
0.3% |
4.1% |
|
-1.2 |
5.7% |
2.1% |
|
6.1 |
0.0% |
1.7% |
|
8.8 |
7.1% |
9.7% |
|
IN |
2.2 |
-1.7% |
-2.4% |
|
3.6 |
-0.5% |
0.3% |
|
2.0 |
4.8% |
2.4% |
|
6.8 |
-2.9% |
-4.1% |
|
11.5 |
10.6% |
15.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IA |
3.0 |
0.7% |
3.7% |
|
-3.0 |
-1.7% |
-3.1% |
|
-0.3 |
7.0% |
5.8% |
|
2.0 |
-11.4% |
-10.7% |
|
6.2 |
4.7% |
6.2% |
|
KS |
1.1 |
-0.6% |
-2.3% |
|
4.4 |
1.2% |
1.8% |
|
3.2 |
2.3% |
2.2% |
|
3.4 |
-8.8% |
-8.9% |
|
8.4 |
4.9% |
8.9% |
|
KY |
0.4 |
-1.7% |
0.7% |
|
-4.4 |
-4.5% |
-6.2% |
|
-1.0 |
1.3% |
-1.2% |
|
3.9 |
0.7% |
2.1% |
|
11.4 |
1.5% |
6.9% |
|
LA |
2.6 |
-2.7% |
-1.7% |
|
0.6 |
-7.1% |
-3.6% |
|
-6.5 |
6.4% |
3.7% |
|
-1.0 |
1.5% |
-0.2% |
|
11.6 |
-2.3% |
2.4% |
|
ME |
4.0 |
4.5% |
5.4% |
|
2.1 |
-2.5% |
-3.7% |
|
4.4 |
12.9% |
12.5% |
|
5.1 |
-5.1% |
-5.8% |
|
9.3 |
4.1% |
6.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MD |
7.3 |
-0.7% |
0.8% |
|
4.3 |
2.3% |
2.7% |
|
3.6 |
4.5% |
2.2% |
|
8.1 |
1.6% |
3.1% |
|
11.1 |
6.0% |
7.6% |
|
MA |
7.7 |
2.1% |
3.8% |
|
4.3 |
-1.7% |
-1.2% |
|
3.3 |
13.9% |
12.0% |
|
7.1 |
-5.7% |
-5.5% |
|
11.6 |
-0.1% |
1.2% |
|
MI |
6.4 |
0.0% |
2.1% |
|
2.2 |
-0.4% |
-1.1% |
|
3.5 |
7.9% |
7.2% |
|
4.9 |
-1.9% |
0.0% |
|
10.2 |
6.1% |
7.8% |
|
MN |
9.2 |
3.2% |
8.0% |
|
-0.5 |
-3.2% |
-2.6% |
|
-1.7 |
7.6% |
3.6% |
|
6.4 |
-9.4% |
-5.6% |
|
15.8 |
3.0% |
6.2% |
|
MS |
18.5 |
-1.0% |
6.7% |
|
3.2 |
-3.4% |
-1.9% |
|
0.3 |
3.3% |
0.9% |
|
5.1 |
1.7% |
4.4% |
|
10.5 |
3.2% |
-0.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MO |
5.8 |
-1.0% |
2.8% |
|
-1.8 |
-0.5% |
-4.3% |
|
5.8 |
3.5% |
2.1% |
|
8.6 |
-3.8% |
0.2% |
|
16.2 |
3.2% |
8.5% |
|
MT |
-2.6 |
5.2% |
5.5% |
|
-3.2 |
-7.9% |
-10.7% |
|
2.4 |
3.6% |
5.2% |
|
-0.7 |
-8.6% |
-11.1% |
|
12.7 |
8.6% |
17.1% |
|
NE |
8.7 |
-0.6% |
1.7% |
|
4.1 |
-1.7% |
-2.9% |
|
6.5 |
5.6% |
7.4% |
|
2.8 |
-9.8% |
-10.9% |
|
15.1 |
8.9% |
12.2% |
|
NV |
9.9 |
1.9% |
3.9% |
|
6.0 |
2.0% |
5.0% |
|
na |
na |
na |
|
-2.1 |
-0.6% |
-3.1% |
|
2.1 |
7.3% |
3.5% |
|
NH |
14.0 |
3.4% |
9.2% |
|
2.4 |
-2.5% |
-7.4% |
|
12.2 |
10.4% |
11.5% |
|
10.1 |
2.6% |
4.6% |
|
15 |
3.9% |
4.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NJ |
9.1 |
-3.2% |
1.1% |
|
0.4 |
2.4% |
1.7% |
|
1.9 |
10.8% |
6.1% |
|
11.2 |
0.4% |
3.9% |
|
13.3 |
4.2% |
6.3% |
|
NM |
8.0 |
1.1% |
7.7% |
|
-5.1 |
-1.3% |
-7.3% |
|
7.0 |
3.3% |
3.6% |
|
6.3 |
-1.0% |
-1.2% |
|
4.2 |
7.9% |
5.8% |
|
NY |
12.2 |
-1.8% |
2.6% |
|
3.3 |
0.7% |
3.4% |
|
-2.1 |
9.7% |
6.4% |
|
4.6 |
-1.9% |
-3.2% |
|
17.5 |
4.4% |
7.0% |
|
NC |
11.9 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
9.8 |
-0.8% |
0.8% |
|
6.5 |
1.4% |
2.5% |
|
4.2 |
0.9% |
2.8% |
|
7.4 |
6.1% |
4.0% |
|
ND |
-1.7 |
2.4% |
2.6% |
|
-2.0 |
-7.1% |
-9.1% |
|
2.0 |
7.9% |
6.8% |
|
4.2 |
-10.8% |
-9.5% |
|
-11.5 |
9.0% |
4.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OH |
10.6 |
2.2% |
7.0% |
|
1.0 |
-0.9% |
-2.0% |
|
3.1 |
7.2% |
6.5% |
|
4.4 |
-4.0% |
-2.6% |
|
9.7 |
2.7% |
2.3% |
|
OK |
-1.2 |
-4.0% |
-2.2% |
|
-4.7 |
-2.0% |
-3.4% |
|
-2.0 |
6.4% |
3.1% |
|
4.7 |
-7.3% |
-2.1% |
|
12.7 |
-0.1% |
6.8% |
|
OR |
1.8 |
4.4% |
5.3% |
|
na |
na |
na |
|
2.4 |
4.7% |
-0.9% |
|
13.6 |
-8.8% |
-5.7% |
|
3.6 |
5.4% |
6.2% |
|
PA |
8.4 |
0.3% |
4.1% |
|
0.8 |
1.4% |
0.0% |
|
3.6 |
4.0% |
4.8% |
|
2.0 |
-3.2% |
-2.6% |
|
18.2 |
3.6% |
8.7% |
|
RI |
5.3 |
-1.6% |
0.9% |
|
0.4 |
1.3% |
0.9% |
|
1.1 |
12.7% |
8.7% |
|
9.0 |
-8.6% |
-4.0% |
|
10.2 |
3.7% |
5.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SC |
9.7 |
0.0% |
3.1% |
|
3.5 |
-2.9% |
-2.6% |
|
2.8 |
4.0% |
4.4% |
|
2.0 |
2.3% |
2.6% |
|
5.1 |
4.0% |
1.7% |
|
SD |
-5.1 |
0.9% |
-2.1% |
|
0.9 |
-5.5% |
-6.2% |
|
2.3 |
5.9% |
8.4% |
|
-2.8 |
-9.4% |
-11.3% |
|
8.4 |
6.3% |
12.8% |
|
TN |
1.3 |
-4.8% |
-3.0% |
|
-2.2 |
-0.7% |
-3.3% |
|
3.0 |
0.9% |
-1.0% |
|
6.8 |
5.5% |
9.4% |
|
12.5 |
-0.7% |
4.5% |
|
TX |
7.6 |
0.2% |
3.8% |
|
0.4 |
-5.8% |
-5.9% |
|
0.6 |
6.8% |
5.7% |
|
2.8 |
-6.3% |
-4.5% |
|
5.7 |
5.4% |
4.2% |
|
UT |
4.3 |
-0.3% |
2.3% |
|
-1.0 |
-7.0% |
-9.2% |
|
3.5 |
8.6% |
9.3% |
|
2.2 |
-7.4% |
-6.3% |
|
-4.2 |
8.3% |
3.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
VT |
15.2 |
8.3% |
16.1% |
|
-0.4 |
-2.7% |
-5.4% |
|
5.0 |
7.2% |
5.4% |
|
8.6 |
-1.5% |
-0.1% |
|
8 |
8.5% |
5.0% |
|
VA |
8.7 |
1.0% |
4.4% |
|
2.0 |
-0.7% |
-3.0% |
|
6.5 |
4.6% |
6.1% |
|
3.5 |
1.4% |
3.4% |
|
19.5 |
7.1% |
12.7% |
|
WA |
8.0 |
2.7% |
4.8% |
|
3.7 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
2.0 |
6.4% |
4.7% |
|
5.5 |
-6.6% |
-6.6% |
|
2.6 |
4.6% |
1.1% |
|
WV |
-5.9 |
-2.4% |
-3.1% |
|
-4.5 |
-5.9% |
-9.5% |
|
2.6 |
3.1% |
2.8% |
|
3.2 |
-3.8% |
-2.3% |
|
5.1 |
-0.6% |
4.9% |
|
WI |
4.8 |
1.9% |
5.5% |
|
-2.4 |
-1.0% |
-3.6% |
|
2.8 |
7.7% |
7.8% |
|
2.5 |
-10.3% |
-7.9% |
|
13.7 |
6.5% |
11.2% |
|
WY |
7.0 |
1.4% |
4.4% |
|
1.0 |
-9.1% |
-10.6% |
|
3.9 |
2.7% |
1.7% |
|
5.9 |
-3.9% |
-0.5% |
|
2.1 |
3.5% |
1.5% |
2004 State Partisanship Recorded and True Vote (Exit Poll) Swing
vs. Red-shift (WPD)
|
Battleground |
WPD |
True Swing |
Recorded |
|
Democratic |
WPD |
True Swing |
Recorded |
|
Republican |
WPD |
True Swing |
Recorded |
|
Average |
6.9 |
4.45% |
-0.34% |
|
Average |
8.9 |
3.85% |
-2.52% |
|
Average |
3.8 |
1.28% |
-3.17% |
|
WPD
Correlation |
1.00 |
0.63 |
0.46 |
|
WPD Correlation |
1.00 |
0.46 |
-0.11 |
|
WPD Correlation |
1.00 |
0.49 |
-0.004 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CO |
6.1 |
4.88% |
3.68% |
|
CA |
11.6 |
4.76% |
-1.85% |
|
|
10.0 |
-2.50% |
-10.74% |
|
FL |
7.8 |
1.85% |
-5.00% |
|
CT |
16.0 |
5.95% |
-7.10% |
|
AK |
9.3 |
12.50% |
5.41% |
|
IA |
3.0 |
3.70% |
-0.98% |
|
DE |
15.9 |
2.78% |
-5.46% |
|
AZ |
0.3 |
-0.13% |
-4.19% |
|
MN |
9.2 |
8.03% |
1.07% |
|
DC |
2.8 |
5.43% |
3.64% |
|
AR |
1.3 |
-2.27% |
-4.32% |
|
MO |
5.8 |
2.82% |
-3.86% |
|
HI |
8.2 |
2.32% |
-9.58% |
|
GA |
1.3 |
-3.76% |
-4.91% |
|
NV |
9.9 |
3.85% |
0.95% |
|
IL |
3.5 |
-1.22% |
-1.67% |
|
ID |
4.0 |
5.87% |
1.41% |
|
NH |
14.0 |
9.24% |
2.64% |
|
ME |
4.0 |
5.44% |
3.88% |
|
IN |
2.2 |
-2.45% |
-5.05% |
|
NM |
8.0 |
7.69% |
-0.85% |
|
MD |
7.3 |
0.85% |
-3.41% |
|
KS |
1.1 |
-2.27% |
-4.58% |
|
NC |
11.9 |
1.43% |
0.39% |
|
MA |
7.7 |
3.83% |
-2.14% |
|
KY |
0.4 |
0.71% |
-4.74% |
|
OH |
10.6 |
7.05% |
1.40% |
|
MI |
6.4 |
2.05% |
-1.71% |
|
LA |
2.6 |
-1.66% |
-6.83% |
|
OR |
1.8 |
5.29% |
3.71% |
|
NJ |
9.1 |
1.15% |
-9.15% |
|
MS |
18.5 |
6.70% |
-2.78% |
|
PA |
8.4 |
4.13% |
-1.67% |
|
NY |
12.2 |
2.61% |
-6.69% |
|
MT |
(2.6) |
5.50% |
4.57% |
|
VA |
8.7 |
4.40% |
-0.16% |
|
RI |
5.3 |
0.89% |
-8.32% |
|
NE |
8.7 |
1.73% |
-4.22% |
|
WV |
(5.9) |
-3.09% |
-6.54% |
|
VT |
15.2 |
16.10% |
10.20% |
|
ND |
(1.7) |
2.59% |
0.24% |
|
WI |
4.8 |
5.47% |
0.16% |
|
WA |
8.0 |
4.84% |
1.60% |
|
OK |
(1.2) |
-2.25% |
-9.26% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SC |
9.7 |
3.10% |
-1.15% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SD |
(5.1) |
-2.12% |
1.27% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TN |
1.3 |
-3.01% |
-10.41% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TX |
7.6 |
3.84% |
-1.54% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
UT |
4.3 |
2.30% |
-5.05% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
WY |
7.0 |
4.38% |
0.27% |
