To Believe that Obama Won in 2008 by 9.5 Million Votes with a 52.87% Share, You Must Believe …
Oct. 12, 2011
Select the State and National True Vote Model
You must believe that the Final 2008 National Exit Poll (NEP) is correct since it matched the recorded vote.
1. The Final NEP indicated that 46% (60.5 million) of the 131.4 million who voted in 2008 were returning Bush voters; 37% (48.6 million) returning Kerry voters.
2. 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters was required to match the 2008 recorded vote.
3. The Final NEP implied there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters
4. The Final implied that Bush won by 52.6-42.3%. He won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%.
5. Kerry won the unadjusted state exit polls (a 70,000 sample) by 52-47%.
You must believe that the 2008 and 2004 unadjusted exit polls were wrong even though...
6. Obama won the State Exit Polls (81,388 sample-size) by 58.0-40.5%. The margin of error was under 1%.
7. The 2008 National Exit Poll is a 17,836 sample subset of the state exit polls: Obama won by 61-37%.
8. Of the 17,836 respondents, 4,178 were asked how they voted in 2004: 43.4% said Kerry, 38.6% Bush.
9. Obama's 58.0% share, based on Final NEP vote shares and Kerry/Bush 43.4/38.6% mix, exactly matched the aggregate state exit polls.
You must believe the True Vote Model (TVM) is wrong even though...
10. It exactly matched Obama’s 58.0% share of the State Exit Poll aggregate.
11. It used Final 2008 NEP vote shares, but with a realistic, plausible return voter mix (based on Kerry's True Vote) replacing the impossible Final NEP mix.
12. The sensitivity analysis shows that Obama won the worst case scenario by 19.5 million votes and a 56.7% share (he had 67% of new voters and 15% of returning Bush voters).
In the most-likely base case scenario (from the Final 2008 NEP) he had 72% and 17%, respectively, and a 58.0% True Vote share.
You must believe there is nothing suspicious about the following…
13. Obama had 52.3% of 121 million votes counted on Election Day and 59.2% of the final 10 million late (paper ballot) votes recorded after Election Day.
14. According to the Final 2008 NEP, returning 2004 third-party voters comprised 5.2 million (4%) of the electorate .
But only 1.2 million third-party votes were recorded in 2004. This anomaly indicates that third party votes were uncounted and/or switched.
15. In the NEP subsample, 1,815 (43.4%) said they voted for Kerry and 1,614 (38.6%) said Bush. In order to match the recorded vote, the mix had to be adjusted to 46% Bush/ 37% Kerry.
The number of Kerry respondents was reduced from 1,815 to 1,546 (-14.8%) and Bush respondents increased from 1,614 to 1,922 (+19.2%).