The True Vote Model: Components of Election Fraud - Uncounted, Stuffed and Switched Ballots

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

April 3, 2011

 

The True Vote Model is based on National Exit Poll vote shares applied to a feasible mix of returning and new voters. A new feature has been added to the model to estimate the number of uncounted, stuffed and switched ballots that are required to fix the (recorded) vote – and steal an election. 

 

https://spreadsheets1.google.com/ccc?key=tpsLLEzC1Ccb7FsEN-EgZhQ#gid=0

 

The True Vote is approximated by the following equation:

True Vote = Recorded Vote + Net Uncounted Vote – Switched Vote

Therefore, we have:

Recorded Vote = True Vote – Net Uncounted Vote + Switched Vote

 

The Census Bureau survey provides an estimate of total votes cast in each election (the margin of error is 0.30%).

Votes Cast = Votes Recorded + Net Uncounted Vote

Net Uncounted Vote (NUV) = Votes Cast – Votes Recorded 

 

Notice the steady decline in NUV since 1988 as mechanical voting machines (levers, punch cards) were phased out by DREs and optical scanners.

 

1988 – 102.2 million cast, 91.6 million recorded (10.6m).

1992 - 113.9 million cast, 104.4 million recorded (9.5m).

1996 - 105.0 million cast, 96.3 million recorded (8.7m).

2000 - 110.8 million cast, 105.4 million recorded (5.4m)

2004 - 125.7 million cast, 122.3 million recorded. (3.4m)

2008 - 132.3 million cast, 131.4 million recorded (0.9m).

 

National Recorded Vote Miscounts (estimated)

(in millions)

 

2008 – Cast 132.3, Uncounted 1.3, Stuffed 0.4, Switched 6.4

2004 – Cast 125.7, Uncounted 4.4, Stuffed 1.0, Switched 5.4

2000 – Cast 110.8, Uncounted 6.6, Stuffed 1.2, Switched 0.2

1996 – Cast 105.0, Uncounted 9.4, Stuffed 0.7, Switched 0.4

1992 – Cast 113.9, Uncounted 11.4, Stuffed 1.9, Switched 4.1

1988 – Cast 102.2, Uncounted 12.3, Stuffed 1.6, Switched 0.5

 

If NUV is >0, more votes were cast than recorded (more ballots were uncounted than stuffed).

If NUV is <0, there were more votes recorded than cast (more ballots were stuffed than uncounted).

 

We cannot know how many votes were actually uncounted or stuffed – we only know the net difference.

For instance, if NUV =200, it could be the result of 300 uncounted and 100 stuffed ballots. Or 400 uncounted and 200 stuffed.

If the actual number of uncounted votes were known, the number of stuffed ballots could be calculated. And vice - versa.

If the votes are switched in cyberspace, the number of total votes cast is unchanged.

 

National 2004:

Bush won by 62-59 million recorded votes

Kerry won the True vote by 67-57 million.

There were 3.44 million net uncounted votes.

Estimate 4.40 million uncounted votes

NUV = Uncounted – Stuffed

Stuffed = 0.96 = 4.40 -3.44

 

Kerry wins 75% of the 4.4 million uncounted.

Assume that 90% of the stuffed ballots were for Bush.

Based on the above, the calculation table given below indicates that over 5 million votes were switched to Bush.

 

Ohio 2004:

Bush won OH by 119k recorded votes. Kerry won the True vote by 500k.

Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 54-45.5%.

There were 143k more votes recorded than cast (143k net stuffed).

 

According to RFK, Jr., there were approximately 350,000 uncounted votes.

Assume that 75% (263k) of the uncounted ballots were for Kerry and 86k for Bush.

 

Since NUV = -143k = Uncounted - Stuffed ballots.

Stuffed ballots = Uncounted – NUV = 493k = 350k – (-143k)

If 90% of the ballots (445k) were stuffed for Bush and 10% (49k) for Kerry, then Kerry’s NUV = 214k = 263k - 49k

 

The remaining unknown is the number of Kerry votes switched.

Kerry’s 2.962 million True Vote exceeded his 2.741 million recorded by 221k (required adjustment).

Switched votes = Required adjustment – NUV

Switched = 7k = 221k - 214k

 

Florida 2004:

Bush won by 381k recorded votes. Kerry won the True Vote by over 200k.

He won the unadjusted exit poll by 51.0-48.2%.

There were 238k more votes recorded than cast (238k net stuffed).

Estimate approximately 221k uncounted votes.

Assume that 75% (166k) of the uncounted ballots were for Kerry and 53k for Bush.

 

Since NUV = -238k = Uncounted - Stuffed ballots.

Stuffed ballots = Uncounted – NUV = 459k = 221k – (-238k)

If 90% of the ballots (413k) were stuffed for Bush and 10% (46k) for Kerry, then Kerry’s NUV = 120k = 166k - 46k

 

The remaining unknown is the number of Kerry votes that were switched.

Kerry’s 3.760 million True Vote exceeded his 3.584 million recorded votes by 176k (required adjustment).

Switched votes = Required adjustment – NUV

Switched = 56k = 176k – 120k

 

New York 2004:

As a heavily Democratic stronghold, New York afforded a great opportunity for padding the Bush popular vote.

Even though Kerry won the recorded vote by 1.3 million, who has questioned his 58-40% landslide margin?

Kerry’s True Vote matched the unadjusted exit poll: 64-35%.

The 12% margin discrepancy accounted for nearly 1/3 of Bush’s 3 million vote “mandate”.

 

There were 307k more votes cast than recorded (307k net uncounted).

If 462k were uncounted, then 152k ballots were stuffed, 139k for Bush.

Therefore, 282k votes were switched from Kerry to Bush.

Kerry’s true margin was cut by 910k votes.

 

Below is a statistical comparison of 22 states, a combination of battleground and Kerry and Bush strongholds.

Kerry had a weighted 54.4% exit poll share and 49.8% recorded.

 

The following estimates are based on the following;

a)      Census total votes cast  

b)      75% of uncounted votes were for Kerry

c)      100% of ballot stuffing was for Bush.

d)      Estimates of uncounted vote rates were

e)      The unadjusted exit polls are used as the baseline. Kerry had 52% in the national state aggregate.  But his true national share was close to 53.5%

 

In the 22 states, uncounted votes were approximately 5.2% of total cast. Stuffed ballots comprised 3.2%.

Based on the above, approximately 3.2% of total votes cast for Kerry were switched to Bush.

Again, it is important to note that uncounted votes are estimates only since only the NUV is known.

Regardless of the estimate, the final net adjustment is the difference between the recorded and true vote/exit poll.

In the final analysis, the discrepancy is known – a combination of uncounted votes, stuffed ballots and switched votes.

The combination is a function of the voting system(s).

 

The state data table is sorted by total votes cast.

These states had more votes recorded than cast: OH, FL, TN, CT, VA and MI.

Florida had 238k net stuffed ballots, Ohio 143k, Tennessee had 118k.

States with the highest percentage of uncounted ballots: NM, SC, AL

NC, NY and NH led in the percentage of votes switched.

 

So what else is new?

 

 

 

 

National 2004

   Total

  Kerry

  Bush

   Other

 

 

True Share

100%

53.74%

45.26%

1.00%

 

 

True  Vote

125,737

67,571

56,907

1,259

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uncounted

4,401

3,301

1,056

44

 

 

- Stuffed

957

96

862

0

 

 

= Net Unctd

3,443

3,205

195

44

 

 

+ Switched

0

5,338

-5,328

-10

 

 

Adjustment

3,443

8,543

-5,134

34

 

 

True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

-Adjustment

 

 

 

 

 

 

= Recorded

122,294

59,028

62,041

1,224

 

 

Share

100%

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

 

 

 

 

Ohio 2004

   Total

   Kerry

   Bush

   Other

 

 

Exit Poll

100%

54.00%

45.52%

0.48%

 

 

True  Vote

5,485

2,962

2,497

26

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uncounted

350

263

86

2

 

 

- Stuffed

493

49

445

0

 

 

= Net Unctd

-143

214

-358

2

 

 

+ Switched

0

7

-4

-2

 

 

Adjustment

-143

221

-363

-1

 

 

True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

-Adjustment

 

 

 

 

 

 

= Recorded

5,628

2,741

2,860

27

 

 

Share

100%

48.71%

50.81%

0.48%

 

 

 

 

FL 2004

   Total

  Kerry

 Bush

  Other

 

 

Exit Poll

100%

51.00%

48.19%

0.81%

 

 

Vote

7,372

3,760

3,552

60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uncounted

221

166

53

2

 

 

- Stuffed

459

46

413

0

 

 

= Net Unctd

-238

120

-360

2

 

 

+ Switched

0

56

-52

-4

 

 

Adjustment

-238

176

-412

-2

 

 

True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

-Adjustment

 

 

 

 

 

 

= Recorded

7,610

3,584

3,965

62

 

 

Share

100%

 47.09%

52.10%

0.81%

 

                                    NY 2004            Total     Kerry       Bush             Other

                                    True Share        100%    64.00%    34.46%         1.54%

                                    True Vote          7,698    4,927       2,652            119

                                                           

                                    Uncounted         462         346          108              7

                                    - Stuffed            155         15            139              0

                                    = Net Unctd       307         331          -31               7

                                    +Switched         0            282         -279              -2

                                    Adjustment        307         612         -310              5

                                    True Vote                                             

                                    -Adjustment                                          

                                    = Recorded       7,391    4,314         2,963           114                                          

                        Share                100%    58.37%     40.08%         1.54%

 

 

 

 

National 2008

    Total

 Obama

 McCain

   Other

 

 

True Share

100%

58.08%

40.42%

1.51%

 

 

True  Vote

132,308

76,841

53,475

1,992

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uncounted

1,323

992

311

20

 

 

- Stuffed

385

0

385

0

 

 

= Net Unctd

938

992

-74

20

 

 

+ Switched

0

6,391

-6,386

-6

 

 

Adjustment

938

7,384

-6,460

14

 

 

True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

-Adjustment

 

 

 

 

 

 

= Recorded

131,370

69,457

59,935

1,978

 

 

Share

100%

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

 

 

 

 

National 2000

   Total

Gore

Bush

Other

 

 

True Share

100%

50.62%

45.63%

3.75%

 

 

True  Vote

110,825

56,097

50,572

4,156

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uncounted

6,650

4,987

1,413

249

 

 

- Stuffed

1,242

124

1,118

0

 

 

= Net Unctd

5,408

4,863

295

249

 

 

+ Switched

0

230

-184

-47

 

 

Adjustment

5,408

5,093

111

203

 

 

True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

-Adjustment

 

 

 

 

 

 

= Recorded

105,417

51,004

50,460

3,953

 

 

Share

100%

48.38%

47.87%

3.75%

 

 

 

National 1996

 

 Clinton

 Dole

  Other

 

 

True Share

100%

52.20%

37.75%

10.05%

 

 

True  Vote

105,013

54,817

39,641

10,555

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uncounted

9,451

7,088

1,413

950

 

 

- Stuffed

714

71

642

0

 

 

= Net Unctd

8,738

7,017

771

950

 

 

+ Switched

0

400

-328

-72

 

 

Adjustment

8,738

7,417

443

878

 

 

True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

-Adjustment

 

 

 

 

 

 

= Recorded

96,275

47,400

39,199

9,677

 

 

Share

100%

49.23%

40.72%

10.05%

 

 

 

 

National 1992

    Total

 Clinton

  Bush

 Other

 

 

True Share

100%

50.34%

30.12%

19.54%

 

 

True  Vote

113,866

57,320

34,291

22,255

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uncounted

11,387

8,540

621

2,226

 

 

- Stuffed

1,945

194

1,750

0

 

 

= Net Unctd

9,442

8,345

-1,129

2,226

 

 

+ Switched

0

4,064

-3,684

-380

 

 

Adjustment

9,442

12,410

-4,813

1,845

 

 

True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

-Adjustment

 

 

 

 

 

 

= Recorded

104,424

44,910

39,105

20,410

 

 

Share

100%

43.01%

37.45%

19.54%

 

 

 

 

National 1988

    Total

 Dukakis

  Bush

   Other

 

 

True Share

100%

50.18%

48.83%

0.98%

 

 

True  Vote

102,247

51,312

49,932

1,003

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uncounted

12,270

9,202

2,947

120

 

 

- Stuffed

1,618

162

1,456

0

 

 

= Net Unctd

10,652

9,040

1,491

120

 

 

+ Switched

0

462

-446

-16

 

 

Adjustment

10,652

9,502

1,045

105

 

 

True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

-Adjustment

 

 

 

 

 

 

= Recorded

91,595

41,809

48,887

899

 

 

Share

100%

45.65%

53.37%

0.98%

 

 

Selected State Summary

 

 

Kerry

Kerry

   Total

 

75% of uncounted to Kerry

Pct of Total Cast

 

 

Exit Poll

Recorded

    Cast

NetUnct

Unctd

  Stuffed

  Switched

Unctd

Switched

Stuffed

CA

60.11%

54.31%

12,807

387

768

381

377

6.00%

4.89%

2.98%

TX

42.02%

38.22%

7,950

539

636

97

31

8.00%

0.24%

1.22%

NY

64.47%

58.37%

7,698

307

462

155

302

6.00%

6.10%

2.01%

FL

50.99%

47.09%

7,372

(238)

221

459

10

3.00%

0.27%

6.23%

PA

55.12%

50.92%

5,845

75

175

100

152

3.00%

4.73%

1.71%

 

OH

54.01%

48.71%

5,485

(143)

350

493

7

6.38%

0.24%

8.99%

MI

54.43%

51.23%

4,818

(21)

145

166

35

3.00%

1.33%

3.44%

NC

49.53%

43.58%

3,639

138

218

80

113

6.00%

0.24%

9.00%

VA

50.13%

45.48%

3,134

(64)

94

158

46

3.00%

2.92%

5.05%

MA

65.79%

61.94%

3,085

173

185

12

87

6.00%

4.28%

0.40%

 

WI

52.10%

49.70%

3,010

13

90

77

11

3.00%

0.70%

2.57%

MN

55.69%

51.09%

2,887

59

87

28

98

3.00%

6.08%

0.97%

WA

56.82%

52.82%

2,851

(8)

86

94

46

3.00%

2.82%

3.28%

MD

59.56%

55.91%

2,413

26

72

46

48

3.00%

3.37%

1.91%

TN

50.05%

42.53%

2,319

(118)

70

188

72

3.00%

6.20%

8.10%

 

AL

41.84%

36.84%

2,060

177

206

29

14

10.00%

1.62%

1.41%

OR

52.25%

51.35%

1,924

87

87

0

-3

4.53%

-0.33%

0.00%

SC

46.45%

40.90%

1,899

281

281

0

9

14.81%

1.08%

0.00%

CT

62.31%

54.31%

1,524

(55)

46

100

58

3.00%

6.10%

6.59%

IA

50.73%

49.23%

1,522

15

30

15

7

2.00%

0.96%

1.01%

 

NM

53.05%

49.05%

837

81

84

3

10

10.00%

2.32%

0.36%

NH

57.24%

50.24%

677

(1)

20

21

32

3.00%

8.20%

3.11%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wtd Total

54.42%

49.75%

85,756

1,710

4,413

2,702

1,562

5.15%

3.18%

3.15%