Getting Started: The 1988-2008 State and National True Vote Model 

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

Dec. 17, 2011

                                                                        

The 1988-2008 State and National True Vote Model (TVM) calculates the True Vote for all state and national presidential elections since 1988.  It contains a unique database of total state and national votes cast, unadjusted state exit polls and final national exit polls. The TVM has a built-in sensitivity analysis to calculate vote shares and margins over a range of scenarios. It automatically determines vote shares of new and returning voters required to force a match to the state’s recorded vote. These capabilities provide a forensic tool to determine the likelihood of vote miscounting in any election.

 

Select the 1988-2008 State and National True Vote Model

http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModels.htm

                                   

 

The True Vote

 

It is an incontrovertible fact that the Final National Exit Poll (NEP) never reflects the True Vote. The Final is always forced to match the recorded vote even though millions of votes are uncounted in every election. It stands to reason that if the Final is forced to match an impossible recorded vote, then the Final must also be impossible – and therefore all the demographic cross-tabs reported in the media must be invalid.

 

Simple arithmetic shows that in 1972, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 the number of returning Nixon and Bush voters were not only implausible, but also physically impossible. In 2004 preliminary state and national exit polls were downloaded from the Internet after midnight. They all showed Kerry leading by substantial margins. But final exit polls show that impossible adjustments were made to the number of returning voters (“the mix”) as well as to the corresponding vote shares. The reason is obvious, but goes unreported in the mainstream media: It is standard operating procedure to force all exit polls to match the recorded vote – regardless of whether or not the votes were miscounted.

 

Therefore, to obtain a good approximation of the True Vote, the Final NEP returning voter mix must be replaced by a feasible, plausible set based on voter mortality and the best estimated turnout percentage of living previous election voters. A feasible mix produces a True Vote that is quite close to the unadjusted state and national exit polls. Yet the average Democratic True Vote share usually exceeds the unadjusted exit polls by 1-2%.  Why the discrepancy?  The exit poll sample is based on prior election recorded votes.  But as we know, the recorded vote always differs from the True Vote.

 

In the eleven presidential elections since 1968, over 80 million votes were cast but never counted. The Republicans led the average recorded vote by 49-45%. The Democrats led the True Vote by exactly the reverse: 49-45%.

 

The 1988-2008 recorded vote, exit poll and True Vote trends are displayed in tables and a bar graph. Deviations between Democratic and Republican vote shares are indicated, along with the Democratic exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote.

 

An additional feature is the reconciliation of True Vote and exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote. The Net Uncounted Vote (NUV) is the difference between uncounted and stuffed ballots, both of which are usually unknown. The user can input an estimated uncounted vote rate. Based on the rate and the NUV, the model will calculate the number of stuffed ballots and switched votes in order to reconcile the discrepancies. In Florida 2000, there were 185,000 spoiled, uncounted ballots. In Ohio 2004, RFK, Jr. reported approximately 350,000 uncounted votes.

 

 

Using the True Vote Model

 

Online users are assigned anonymous numeric codes for the online chat feature. 

 

Required Data (Input Tab)

1, Election year: 1988-2008 

2. State abbreviation code (NA for national) 

3. The calculation method determines the number of returning voters from the previous state or national election:

 

Calculation Methods

1 - Official recorded vote    

2 - Votes cast (recorded + net uncounted)         

3 - Unadjusted state exit polls      

4 - Recursive True Vote (calculated)       

 

Final NEP vote shares are used to calculate the National True Vote, except for the 2004 election which preliminary 12:22am vote shares are used. In each method, the adjusted return voter mix replaces the Final NEP (impossible and/or implausible) mix.  Since the unadjusted “How Voted” exit poll cross-tabs are unavailable for states, the model automatically generates a return voter mix and vote shares that force a match to the recorded vote. The vote shares are derived from the NEP shares by applying a state to national vote share ratio.

 

Final State and national exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote. The Final exit poll is displayed next to the True Vote table.

 

The MAIN data sheet contains results summary output, sensitivity analysis, vote share trends and trend graph.

Table 1a displays the state or national True vote shares based on the calculation method (1-4)

Table 1b displays the corresponding recorded vote shares (default).

 

To display the unadjusted exit poll in Table 1b, enter code 1 in INPUT cell c26.

To display a Target Democratic Vote share in Table 1b, enter the share in INPUT cell c27.

 

Sensitivity Analysis  (Tables 3a and 3b ): Each containds 25 scenarios of vote shares and margins over a range of Democratic shares of new (DNV) and returning Republican voters.  The base case scenario is displayed in the central cell of each matrix.

 

Methods 1-4 calculate a plausible return voter mix based on previous election vote shares adjusted for voter mortality and turnout. The corresponding vote shares are adjusted automatically. This is a forensic tool for exposing likely vote miscounts.

 

Final NEP vote shares are used to calculate the National True Vote, except for the 2004 election which preliminary 12:22am vote shares are used. In each method, the adjusted return voter mix replaces the Final NEP (impossible and/or implausible) mix.  Since the unadjusted “How Voted” exit poll cross-tabs are unavailable for states, the model automatically generates a return voter mix and vote shares that force a match to the recorded vote. The vote shares are derived from the NEP shares by applying a state to national vote share ratio.

 

The model has built-in input data defaults for a) the turnout of previous election voters in the current election and b) allocation of uncounted votes in the previous election. The default assumptions may be overridden. Vote shares of new and returning voters that are required to match a target share are calculated automatically.  

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

Two 5x5 tables display 25 scenario combinations  of Democratic shares of new voters and returning Republican voters on final state or national vote shares and margin. The first table contains 25 vote shares; the second, the corresponding margins. The tables are generated automatically each time the model is executed.  Without the sensitivity analysis, running multiple scenarios separately would be time-consuming  -  and there would not be a matrix table for viewing a range of incremental input assumptions at a glance.

 

In the example below, the tables display 25 Kerry vote shares and margins around Kerry’s 57% base case share of new (DNV) voters and his 10% share of returning Bush voters. One can quickly compare Kerry’s vote shares to the margin of error.  By winning all 25 scenarios, it is obvious that the probability is virtually 100% that he won by a minimum of five million votes.

 

 

National 2004

 

Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%.                                                                                                        

Kerry won the unadjusted 2004 state exit poll aggregate by 52.0-47.0%

 

Bush needed an impossible 109.7% of returning Bush 2000 voters to match his recorded vote.

According to the preliminary 12:22am National Exit Poll, Bush had an 8.0% share of returning Gore voters

According to the Final NEP, Bush had 10.0% of returning Gore voters.

 

2004 National True Vote vs. Final National Exit Poll (recorded vote)

 

Calculation method 3: Returning voters based on 2000 unadjusted exit poll

Kerry had a 52.9% National share and won by 8.6 million votes.

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

In the worst case scenario (53% of DNV and 8% of returning Bush voters) Kerry had 51.1% and a 4.870 million vote margin.

In the most likely scenario (57% of DNV and 10% of returning Bush voters) Kerry had 52.9% and a 8.608 million vote margin.

In the best case (61% of DNV and 12% of returning Bush voters), Kerry had 54.4% and a 12.347 million vote margin.

 

Calculation of total vote share

 

Total vote share = ∑ return voter mix (i) * vote share (i), where I =1 for DNV (new) voters, 2 = returning Democrat, 3 = returning Republican, 4 = returning third-party (Other).

Kerry vote share = 52.9% = .179*.57 + .405*.91 + .385*.10 + .031*.64

 

National 2004              FEASIBLE MIX BASED ON 2000 EXIT POLL                 FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL (RECORDED)                                   

 

Voted 2000

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

New/DNV

17.9%

57.0%

41.6%

1.4%

-

17%

54%

44%

2%

Gore

 

40.5%

91.0%

8.3%

0.7%

98.0%

37%

90%

10%

0%

Bush

 

38.5%

10.0%

90.0%

0.0%

98.0%

43%

9%

91%

0%

Other

 

3.1%

64.0%

20.7%

15.3%

98.0%

3%

64%

14%

22%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote

 

100.0%

52.9%

46.1%

1.0%

98.0%

100%

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

Diff

Kerry

Bush

 

True Vote

 

125,737

66,543

57,935

1,259

8,608

6.9%

380

158

 

Recorded

 

122,294

59,028

62,041

1,224

-3,012

-2.5%

252

286

 

Net Adjust.

-3,443

-7,515

4,106

-34

-11,621

9.3%

< WPD

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

Kerry True Vote (Method 3)

 

Kerry share of new (DNV) voters                                  

Share of Bush

53.0%

55.0%

57.0%

59.0%

61.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote share

 

12.0%

53.0%

53.3%

53.7%

54.1%

54.4%

11.0%

52.6%

52.9%

53.3%

53.7%

54.0%

10.0%

52.2%

52.6%

52.9%

53.3%

53.6%

9.0%

51.8%

52.2%

52.5%

52.9%

53.3%

8.0%

51.4%

51.8%

52.2%

52.5%

52.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

 

12.0%

8,738

9,640

10,542

11,445

12,347

11.0%

7,771

8,673

9,575

10,478

11,380

10.0%

6,804

7,706

8,608

9,511

10,413

9.0%

5,837

6,739

7,641

8,544

9,446

8.0%

4,870

5,772

6,674

7,577

8,479

 

 

The following worksheets are included in the model. Click the tab at the bottom of the screen to view the sheet.

 

Tutorial – Introduction. Read this first.

 

Input – Input Data Sheet

 

Main - Output summary. View after changing Input Data.

 

TrueVote - calculations used in Main. 

 

StateMod - National and state recorded vote, exit poll and True Vote based on the calculation method . 
The last two columns show the discrepancies between the True Vote, Recorded Vote and Exit Poll. 

 

HistWPD - 1988-2008 State Exit Polls: Within Precinct Discrepancies                                                                   

 

2008Confirm - State and National Exit Polls (unadjusted, weighted, unweighted), True Vote Model, Late and Recorded Votes                                                          

 

2004Exit  - state exit poll timeline: Unadjusted WPE, Best GEO , Composite and Final (recorded vote). 

The WPE measures were provided by pollsters Edison Mitofsky. The unadjusted WPE is calculated three ways:

Enter 1 for VNS, 2 for DSS, 3 for IMS (aggregate Kerry shares 51.84%, 52.17% and 51.97%, respectively). 

 

StateExitWPE - 1988-2008 votes cast, recorded and exit polls. The adjusted vote share is based on the uncounted vote allocation.

The adjusted state and aggregate national share is a reasonable approximation to the True Vote calculated in the StateModel.

 

HistVote - database of state votes cast, recorded and unadjusted exit polls. 

 

Machine04 – 2004 voting machines. 

 

Model  -  the calculation worksheet. 

 

 

********* Input Data Section *********       

 

REQUIRED INPUT

 

Election Year (1988-2008)                     2004

NA (National) or State abbreviaton        NA

Calculation Method 1-4                         3

           

OPTIONAL INPUT

 

Change returning 2000 voter defaults: 

Returning Gore 98% turnout to            

Returning Bush 98% turnout to           

Uncounted Votes-Gore 75% to 

Bush 100% net stuffed to         

 

Enter 1 to TARGET Kerry Exit Poll      

Enter a TARGET Kerry share   

           

WHAT-IF

Change default Dem shares:    

DNV from 57% to         

Returning Gore from 91% to    

Returning Bush from 10% to   

Returning Other from 64% to   

           

4-year voter mortality: 5% to    

           

National 2004 Adjustments      

 

Uncounted/Total Cast  

Kerry uncounted (default 75%) 

Kerry share of stuffed