Getting Started: The 1988-2008 State
and National True Vote Model
Dec. 17, 2011
The 1988-2008 State and
National True Vote Model (TVM) calculates the True Vote for all state and national presidential
elections since 1988. It contains a unique database of total state and
national votes cast, unadjusted state exit polls and final national exit polls.
The TVM has a built-in sensitivity analysis to calculate vote shares and
margins over a range of scenarios. It automatically determines vote shares of
new and returning voters required to force a match to the state’s recorded
vote. These capabilities provide a forensic tool to determine the likelihood of
vote miscounting in any election.
Select the 1988-2008 State
and National True Vote Model
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModels.htm
The True Vote
It is an incontrovertible fact that the Final National Exit
Poll (NEP) never reflects the True Vote. The Final is always forced to match
the recorded vote even though millions of votes are uncounted in every
election. It stands to reason that if the Final is forced to match an
impossible recorded vote, then the Final must also be impossible – and
therefore all the demographic cross-tabs reported in the media must be invalid.
Simple arithmetic shows that in 1972, 1988, 1992, 2004 and
2008 the number of returning Nixon and Bush voters were not only implausible,
but also physically impossible. In
2004 preliminary state and national exit polls were downloaded from the
Internet after midnight. They all showed Kerry leading by substantial margins.
But final exit polls show that impossible adjustments were made to the number
of returning voters (“the mix”) as well as to the corresponding vote shares.
The reason is obvious, but goes unreported in the mainstream media: It is
standard operating procedure to force all exit polls to match the recorded vote
– regardless of whether or not the votes were miscounted.
Therefore, to obtain a good approximation of the True Vote,
the Final NEP returning
voter mix must be replaced by a feasible, plausible set based on
voter mortality and the best estimated turnout percentage of living previous election
voters. A feasible mix produces a True Vote that is quite close to the
unadjusted state and national exit polls. Yet the average Democratic True Vote
share usually exceeds the unadjusted exit polls by 1-2%. Why the discrepancy? The exit poll sample is based on prior
election recorded votes. But as we know,
the recorded vote always differs from the True Vote.
In the eleven presidential elections since 1968, over
80 million votes were cast but never counted. The Republicans led the average
recorded vote by 49-45%. The Democrats led the True Vote by exactly the
reverse: 49-45%.
The 1988-2008 recorded vote,
exit poll and True Vote trends are displayed in tables and a bar graph.
Deviations between Democratic and Republican vote shares are indicated, along
with the Democratic exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote.
An additional feature is the
reconciliation of True Vote and exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote.
The Net Uncounted Vote (NUV) is the difference between uncounted and stuffed
ballots, both of which are usually unknown. The user can input an estimated
uncounted vote rate. Based on the rate and the NUV, the model will calculate
the number of stuffed ballots and switched votes in order to reconcile the
discrepancies. In Florida 2000, there
were 185,000 spoiled, uncounted ballots. In Ohio 2004, RFK, Jr. reported
approximately 350,000 uncounted votes.
Using the True Vote Model
Online users are assigned
anonymous numeric codes for the online chat feature.
Required Data (Input Tab)
1, Election year: 1988-2008
2. State abbreviation code
(NA for national)
3. The calculation method
determines the number of returning voters from the previous state or national
election:
Calculation Methods
1 - Official recorded vote
2 - Votes cast (recorded + net uncounted)
3 - Unadjusted state exit polls
4 - Recursive True Vote (calculated)
Final NEP vote shares are used to
calculate the National True Vote, except for the 2004 election which preliminary
12:22am vote shares are used. In each method, the adjusted return voter mix
replaces the Final NEP (impossible and/or implausible) mix.
Since the unadjusted “How Voted” exit
poll cross-tabs are unavailable for states, the model automatically generates a
return voter mix and vote shares that force a match to the recorded vote. The
vote shares are derived from the NEP shares by applying a state to national vote share ratio.
The
MAIN data sheet contains results summary output, sensitivity analysis, vote
share trends and trend graph.
Table
1a displays the state or national True vote shares based on the calculation
method (1-4)
Table
1b displays the corresponding recorded vote shares (default).
To
display the unadjusted exit poll in Table 1b, enter code 1 in INPUT cell c26.
To
display a Target Democratic Vote share in Table 1b, enter the share in INPUT
cell c27.
Sensitivity
Analysis (Tables
3a and 3b ): Each containds 25 scenarios of vote
shares and margins over a range of Democratic shares of new (DNV) and returning
Republican voters. The base case
scenario is displayed in the central cell of each matrix.
Methods
1-4 calculate a plausible return voter
mix based on previous election vote shares adjusted for voter mortality and
turnout. The corresponding vote
shares are adjusted automatically. This is a forensic tool for exposing likely vote
miscounts.
Final NEP vote shares are used to
calculate the National True Vote, except for the 2004 election which preliminary
12:22am vote shares are used. In each method, the adjusted return voter mix
replaces the Final NEP (impossible and/or implausible) mix. Since
the unadjusted “How Voted” exit poll cross-tabs
are unavailable for states, the model automatically generates a return voter
mix and vote shares that force a match to the recorded vote. The vote shares
are derived from the NEP shares by applying a state to national vote share ratio.
The model has built-in input data defaults for a) the
turnout of previous election voters in the current election and b) allocation
of uncounted votes in the previous election. The default assumptions may be
overridden. Vote shares of new and returning voters that are required to match
a target share are calculated automatically.
Sensitivity Analysis
Two 5x5 tables display 25 scenario combinations of Democratic shares of new voters and
returning Republican voters on final state or national vote shares and margin. The
first table contains 25 vote shares; the second, the corresponding margins. The
tables are generated automatically each time the model is executed. Without the sensitivity analysis, running multiple
scenarios separately would be time-consuming -
and there would not be a matrix table for viewing a range of incremental
input assumptions at a glance.
In the example below, the tables display 25 Kerry vote
shares and margins around Kerry’s 57% base case share of new (DNV) voters and his
10% share of returning Bush voters. One can quickly compare Kerry’s vote shares
to the margin of error. By winning all
25 scenarios, it is obvious that the probability is virtually 100% that he won
by a minimum of five million votes.
National 2004
Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%.
Kerry won the unadjusted
2004 state exit poll aggregate by 52.0-47.0%
Bush needed an impossible 109.7% of returning Bush
2000 voters to match his recorded vote.
According to the preliminary
12:22am National Exit Poll, Bush had an 8.0%
share of returning Gore voters
According to the Final NEP,
Bush had 10.0% of returning Gore
voters.
2004 National True Vote vs. Final National Exit Poll (recorded
vote)
Calculation method 3: Returning
voters based on 2000 unadjusted exit poll
Kerry had a 52.9% National
share and won by 8.6 million votes.
Sensitivity Analysis
In the worst case scenario (53% of DNV and 8% of returning
Bush voters) Kerry had 51.1% and a 4.870 million vote margin.
In the most likely scenario (57% of DNV and 10% of returning
Bush voters) Kerry had 52.9% and a 8.608 million vote
margin.
In the best case (61% of DNV and 12% of returning Bush
voters), Kerry had 54.4% and a 12.347 million vote margin.
Calculation of total vote share
Total vote share = ∑ return voter mix
(i) * vote share (i), where
I =1 for DNV (new) voters, 2 = returning Democrat, 3 = returning Republican, 4 =
returning third-party (Other).
Kerry vote share = 52.9% = .179*.57 + .405*.91 +
.385*.10 + .031*.64
National 2004 FEASIBLE MIX
BASED ON 2000 EXIT POLL FINAL
NATIONAL EXIT POLL (RECORDED)
|
Voted 2000 |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Turnout |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
|
|
New/DNV |
17.9% |
57.0% |
41.6% |
1.4% |
- |
17% |
54% |
44% |
2% |
|
|
Gore |
|
40.5% |
91.0% |
8.3% |
0.7% |
98.0% |
37% |
90% |
10% |
0% |
|
Bush |
|
38.5% |
10.0% |
90.0% |
0.0% |
98.0% |
43% |
9% |
91% |
0% |
|
Other |
|
3.1% |
64.0% |
20.7% |
15.3% |
98.0% |
3% |
64% |
14% |
22% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True Vote |
|
100.0% |
52.9% |
46.1% |
1.0% |
98.0% |
100% |
48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin |
Diff |
Kerry |
Bush |
|
|
True Vote |
|
125,737 |
66,543 |
57,935 |
1,259 |
8,608 |
6.9% |
380 |
158 |
|
|
Recorded |
|
122,294 |
59,028 |
62,041 |
1,224 |
-3,012 |
-2.5% |
252 |
286 |
|
|
Net Adjust. |
-3,443 |
-7,515 |
4,106 |
-34 |
-11,621 |
9.3% |
< WPD |
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis
Kerry True Vote (Method 3)
Kerry share of new (DNV) voters
|
Share of Bush |
53.0% |
55.0% |
57.0% |
59.0% |
61.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vote share |
|
|
|
12.0% |
53.0% |
53.3% |
53.7% |
54.1% |
54.4% |
|
11.0% |
52.6% |
52.9% |
53.3% |
53.7% |
54.0% |
|
10.0% |
52.2% |
52.6% |
52.9% |
53.3% |
53.6% |
|
9.0% |
51.8% |
52.2% |
52.5% |
52.9% |
53.3% |
|
8.0% |
51.4% |
51.8% |
52.2% |
52.5% |
52.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin |
|
|
|
12.0% |
8,738 |
9,640 |
10,542 |
11,445 |
12,347 |
|
11.0% |
7,771 |
8,673 |
9,575 |
10,478 |
11,380 |
|
10.0% |
6,804 |
7,706 |
8,608 |
9,511 |
10,413 |
|
9.0% |
5,837 |
6,739 |
7,641 |
8,544 |
9,446 |
|
8.0% |
4,870 |
5,772 |
6,674 |
7,577 |
8,479 |
The following worksheets are
included in the model. Click the tab at the bottom of the screen to view the
sheet.
Tutorial – Introduction. Read this first.
Input – Input Data Sheet
Main - Output summary. View after changing Input Data.
TrueVote - calculations used in
StateMod - National and state recorded vote, exit poll and True Vote based on
the calculation method .
The last two columns show the discrepancies between the True
Vote, Recorded Vote and Exit Poll.
HistWPD - 1988-2008 State Exit Polls: Within Precinct Discrepancies
2008Confirm - State and National Exit Polls (unadjusted, weighted, unweighted), True Vote Model, Late and Recorded Votes
2004Exit -
state exit poll timeline: Unadjusted WPE, Best GEO ,
Composite and Final (recorded vote).
The WPE measures were
provided by pollsters Edison Mitofsky. The unadjusted WPE is calculated three ways:
Enter 1 for VNS, 2 for DSS,
3 for IMS (aggregate Kerry shares 51.84%, 52.17% and 51.97%,
respectively).
StateExitWPE - 1988-2008 votes cast, recorded and exit polls. The adjusted vote share is
based on the uncounted vote allocation.
The adjusted state and
aggregate national share is a reasonable approximation to the True Vote
calculated in the StateModel.
HistVote - database of state votes cast, recorded and unadjusted exit polls.
Machine04 –
2004 voting machines.
Model - the calculation
worksheet.
********* Input Data
Section *********
REQUIRED
INPUT
Election
Year (1988-2008) 2004
NA
(National) or State abbreviaton NA
Calculation
Method 1-4 3
OPTIONAL
INPUT
Change
returning 2000 voter defaults:
Returning Gore
98% turnout to
Returning
Bush 98% turnout to
Uncounted
Votes-Gore 75% to
Bush 100%
net stuffed to
Enter 1 to
TARGET Kerry Exit Poll
Enter a
TARGET Kerry share
WHAT-IF
Change
default Dem shares:
DNV from
57% to
Returning
Gore from 91% to
Returning
Bush from 10% to
Returning
Other from 64% to
4-year
voter mortality: 5% to
National
2004 Adjustments
Uncounted/Total
Cast
Kerry
uncounted (default 75%)
Kerry
share of stuffed